Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][44] Core Viewpoints - Supply chain logistics companies are leveraging their substantial transaction volumes to create a second growth curve through monetization of flow, extending their business from "logistics - trade - manufacturing" [5][18] - New business segments are experiencing high growth, with significant increases in profit margins. For instance, from 2018 to 2024, the annualized gross profit growth rate for Manufacturing at Wuchan Zhongda is 22%, while for Milky Way's distribution, it is 21% [6][19] - The potential for a "Davis Double" exists, where high growth in new business profits and rising profit shares could drive overall profit growth for companies, alongside a rebound in commodity prices and improved market sentiment [7][30] Summary by Sections 1.1 Transaction Volume and Growth - Supply chain companies handle substantial transaction volumes, but revenue growth in logistics or manufacturing is slowing, necessitating new growth points [10][12] - The revenue growth rates for various companies from 2018 to 2024 show a mix of positive and negative trends, indicating a need for strategic shifts [11] 1.2 Monetization Logic - The monetization logic follows a "logistics - trade - manufacturing" model, with companies like Wuchan Zhongda and Milky Way focusing on enhancing their manufacturing and distribution capabilities [13][15] 2.1 Flow Monetization and New Business Growth - Flow monetization is driving high growth in new business revenues and gross profits, with expectations for continued growth in the future [16][18] 2.2 Wuchan Zhongda: High Growth in Manufacturing - Wuchan Zhongda's high-end manufacturing business has seen a 26% annualized revenue and gross profit growth from 2016 to 2024, with a 28% year-on-year gross profit increase in the first half of 2025 [21][23] 2.3 Profit Growth Center Rising - The rising share of gross profits from new business segments for companies like Wuchan Zhongda and Milky Way indicates an upward trend in overall profit growth [27][29] 3.1 Supply Chain Profit Recovery - Supply chain profit growth is correlated with commodity prices, which are currently at a historical low, suggesting potential for recovery as commodity prices rise [31][33] 3.2 Valuation Upside - Domestic supply chain companies' PE and PB ratios are approaching those of Japanese trading companies, with expectations for higher valuations due to faster projected profit growth from 2024 to 2027 [34][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall convertible bond downward - revision gaming space has gradually narrowed this year. With the upward trend of the equity market, the number of low - parity convertible bonds has decreased, and the number of convertible bonds triggering downward - revision, proposing downward - revision, and actually undergoing downward - revision has shown a downward trend. However, as the number of convertible bonds entering the put - back period and approaching maturity increases, the gaming opportunities for downward - revision may relatively increase, and the focus should be on the individual bond's downward - revision willingness [1][10]. - Against the background of the narrowing overall downward - revision gaming space, attention should be paid to the opportunities of underlying assets related to the fundamental expectations of the underlying stocks of convertible bonds and relatively low valuations. For equities, grasp the structural opportunities in the technology - growth direction and focus on the underlying assets with strong performance certainty in pro - cyclical and anti - involution beneficiary industries. Also, pay attention to low - price and low - premium varieties among high - rating and large - cap convertible bonds [2][20]. - The A - share market is expected to have a good allocation cost - performance ratio in terms of risk premium. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and there is certain support on the demand side. Attention should be paid to the downward - revision gaming space, be vigilant against the forced - redemption risk, and appropriately focus on the short - term gaming opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds. Industries worthy of attention include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, and high - dividend sectors under the Chinese - characteristic valuation system [23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 3.1.1. How to View the Narrowing Downward - Revision Space? - This week, three convertible bonds (Jingke Convertible Bond, Lanfan Convertible Bond, and Yong 22 Convertible Bond) underwent downward - revision. Since September, the total number of actually downward - revised convertible bonds has slightly increased compared to August. The number of convertible bonds proposed for downward - revision in September is the same as that in August, and the willingness for downward - revision may have marginally increased [10]. - In general this year, the downward - revision gaming space has gradually narrowed. The proportion of convertible bonds with a parity in the (0, 80] range has decreased from 40.7% at the beginning of the year to 22.2%. The number of convertible bonds triggering downward - revision, proposing downward - revision, and actually undergoing downward - revision has shown a downward trend. The willingness for downward - revision has not significantly increased since the peak in February [10]. - In the future, with the shrinking number of convertible bonds meeting the downward - revision conditions, the focus should be on the individual bond's downward - revision willingness. Although the equity market may have short - term adjustments, the overall upward expectation is still strong. The number of convertible bonds meeting the downward - revision conditions may remain relatively low, but the gaming opportunities for downward - revision may increase due to the increasing number of convertible bonds entering the put - back period and approaching maturity. It is recommended to screen potential downward - revision targets and pay attention to factors affecting the gaming returns of downward - revision [18]. - Against the background of the narrowing overall downward - revision gaming space, attention should be paid to the opportunities of underlying assets related to the fundamental expectations of the underlying stocks of convertible bonds and relatively low valuations. Focus on the structural opportunities in the technology - growth direction, such as AI computing power, semiconductors, and humanoid robots. Also, pay attention to pro - cyclical and anti - involution beneficiary industries [20]. - Attention should be paid to low - price and low - premium varieties among high - rating and large - cap convertible bonds. Since the end of August, some "fixed - income +" funds have redeemed, causing short - term pressure on high - rating and large - cap convertible bonds. As market sentiment stabilizes, funds may flow back, and attention should be paid to signs of the shift in capital allocation preferences [21]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the A - share market fluctuated upward. Different sectors showed different performances on each trading day [22]. - In terms of the stock market outlook, the A - share market still shows good allocation cost - performance in terms of risk premium. The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to gradually recover, and the weak resonance between economic fundamentals and capital flows is expected to start. - In the convertible bond market, considering the impact of refinancing policies, there is certain support on the demand side under the background of shrinking supply. The opportunity cost of convertible bonds is relatively low, but the current overall valuation is at a relatively high level, so attention should be paid to the callback risk. In terms of terms and conditions, attention should be paid to the downward - revision gaming space, be vigilant against the forced - redemption risk, and appropriately focus on the short - term gaming opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds. Industries worthy of attention include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, and high - dividend sectors under the Chinese - characteristic valuation system [23]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Closed Higher - This week, the main equity market indices closed higher. The Wind All - A Index rose 0.25%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%. The market style was more inclined to large - cap growth. Among the small - cap indices, the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.55%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 6.47% [27]. - Seven Shenwan industry indices rose, and 24 industries fell. The power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and electronics industries led the market with increases of 3.86%, 3.52%, and 3.51% respectively. The social services, comprehensive, and commercial retail industries ranked among the top three in terms of decline, with declines of 5.92%, 4.61%, and 4.32% respectively [31]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Closed Higher, and the Whole - Market Conversion Premium Rate Rose - This week, the convertible bond market closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.94%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 1.01%, the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.85%, the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.63%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index rose 0.93% [33]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased this week. The average daily trading volume was 78.919 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.882 billion yuan compared with last week, and the total trading volume for the week was 394.597 billion yuan [33]. - At the industry level of convertible bonds, 21 industries closed higher, and 8 industries closed lower. The electronics, national defense and military industry, and power equipment industries ranked among the top three in terms of increase, with increases of 3.14%, 3.13%, and 1.66% respectively. The communication, coal, and social services industries led the decline. At the corresponding underlying stock level, 12 industries closed higher, and 17 industries closed lower. The electronics, non - ferrous metals, and steel industries ranked among the top three in terms of increase, with increases of 7.97%, 4.26%, and 3.45% respectively. The pharmaceutical biology, light industry manufacturing, and communication industries led the decline [36]. - Most individual convertible bonds rose this week (270 out of 426). After excluding the closing data of newly listed convertible bonds this week, the top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly increase were Jize Convertible Bond (public utilities, 25.83%), Huicheng Convertible Bond (electronics, 19.41%), Jingda Convertible Bond (power equipment, 18.90%), Anji Convertible Bond (electronics, 13.97%), and Hangyu Convertible Bond (national defense and military industry, 11.00%). The top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly decline were Borei Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, - 33.90%), Jingxing Convertible Bond (light industry manufacturing, - 15.89%), Jingzhuang Convertible Bond (construction and decoration, - 14.04%), Tongguang Convertible Bond (power equipment, - 13.54%), and Tianlu Convertible Bond (building materials, - 13.27%). The top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly trading volume were Liyang Convertible Bond (electronics, 13.473 billion yuan), Huicheng Convertible Bond (electronics, 12.193 billion yuan), Jize Convertible Bond (public utilities, 10.531 billion yuan), Jingxing Convertible Bond (light industry manufacturing, 10.042 billion yuan), and Zhongqi Convertible Bond (building materials, 9.787 billion yuan) [39]. - In terms of price, the median price of convertible bonds increased. The number of absolute low - price convertible bonds (with an absolute price less than 110 yuan) increased by 1 compared with last week, the number of convertible bonds in the price range of 110 - 130 yuan decreased by 17, the number of convertible bonds in the price range of 130 - 150 yuan increased by 12, the number of convertible bonds in the price range of 150 - 200 yuan decreased by 1, and the number of convertible bonds with a price greater than 200 yuan remained unchanged. As of this Friday, the median price of the whole - market convertible bonds was reported at 130.32 yuan, an increase of 0.62 yuan compared with last weekend [42]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market decreased, and the premium rate increased. The weighted average conversion value of the whole market based on the outstanding bond balance was 100.36 yuan, a decrease of 0.12 yuan compared with last weekend. The whole - market weighted conversion premium rate was 38.89%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points compared with last weekend. The weighted average conversion premium rate for convertible bonds with a parity in the range of 90 - 110 yuan was 25.58%, an increase of 1.90 percentage points compared with last weekend. The median conversion premium rate was 29.05%, an increase of 1.30 percentage points compared with last weekend. In the long - term perspective, the current conversion premium rate for convertible bonds with a parity of 100 yuan is above the 50th percentile level since 2017. The median implied volatility of the whole market was 36.89%, an increase of 2.51 percentage points compared with last weekend. The pure - bond premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds was 10.00%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points compared with last weekend [45]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, there was valuation differentiation in the convertible bond structure. The valuations of convertible bonds with a parity of 80 - 90 yuan and 90 - 100 yuan decreased, while the valuations of most other convertible bonds increased. The valuations of convertible bonds with a rating of A and below decreased, while the valuations of other rated convertible bonds increased. The valuations of convertible bonds in each scale category increased [55]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have both rebounded from the bottom. As of this Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds is above the 35th percentile level since 2017, and the conversion premium rate of balanced convertible bonds is above the 50th percentile level since 2017 [55]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - All rated convertible bonds rose this week. The AAA - rated convertible bonds rose 0.52%, the AA + - rated convertible bonds rose 1.54%, the AA - rated convertible bonds rose 0.99%, the AA - - rated convertible bonds rose 1.16%, the A + - rated convertible bonds rose 0.69%, and the convertible bonds with a rating of A and below rose 0.06%. Since 2023, the AAA - rated convertible bonds have recorded a return of 17.49%, the AA + - rated convertible bonds have recorded a return of 14.80%, the AA - rated convertible bonds have recorded a return of 20.11%, the AA - - rated convertible bonds have recorded a return of 28.01%, the A + - rated convertible bonds have recorded a return of 28.30%, and the convertible bonds with a rating of A and below have recorded a return of 29.58%. Historically, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline properties and greater rebound strength [65]. - All convertible bonds of different scales rose this week. The small - cap convertible bonds rose 0.10%, the small - and medium - cap convertible bonds rose 0.84%, the medium - cap convertible bonds rose 1.16%, and the large - cap convertible bonds rose 0.89%. Since 2023, the small - cap convertible bonds have recorded a return of 29.52%, the small - and medium - cap convertible bonds have recorded a return of 26.75%, the medium - cap convertible bonds have recorded a return of 23.90%, and the large - cap convertible bonds have recorded a return of 17.10% [67]. 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.3.1. This Week's Primary - Market Issuance Plans - Two convertible bonds (Jin 25 Convertible Bond and Yingliu Convertible Bond) have been issued but not yet listed this week. - The number of primary - market approvals this week was five (from September 22 to September 26, 2025). Jinlang Technology's 1.677 - billion - yuan convertible bond issuance plan has been approved by the CSRC [71]. - Since the beginning of 2023 to September 26, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds is 103, with a total scale of 161.397 billion yuan. Among them, the number of convertible bonds with the board of directors' resolution passed is 18, with a total scale of 20.669 billion yuan; the number of convertible bonds passed by the general meeting of shareholders is 46, with a total scale of 76.366 billion yuan; the number of convertible bonds accepted by the exchange is 25, with a total scale of 45.629 billion yuan; the number of convertible bonds passed by the listing committee is 8, with a total scale of 5.305 billion yuan; and the number of convertible bonds approved for registration by the CSRC is 6, with a total scale of 13.429 billion yuan [72]. 3.3.2. Downward - Revision and Redemption Clauses - As of September 26, 2025, the tracking of downward - revision and redemption clauses this week is as follows: - Six convertible bonds announced that they are expected to trigger downward - revision. - Six convertible bonds announced that they will not undergo downward - revision, among which Kangyi Convertible Bond, Xinneng Convertible Bond, Guangli Convertible Bond, and Gongtong Convertible Bond announced that they will not undergo downward - revision within six months. - Jingke Convertible Bond, Lanfan Convertible Bond, and Yong 22 Convertible Bond announced the results of downward - revision [75]. - Nine convertible bonds announced that they are expected to trigger redemption. - Two convertible bonds announced that they will not be redeemed in advance. - Two convertible bonds announced early redemption [77][78]. - As of the end of this week, there is still one convertible bond in the put - back declaration period and 20 convertible bonds in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period. Attention should be paid to the price changes of convertible bonds and the marginal changes in the company's downward - revision tendency [80].

Group 1 - The report highlights the calendar effect on market performance before and after the National Day holiday from 2010 to 2024, indicating a median return of -0.81% in the five trading days before the holiday and a strong median return of 2.27% in the first five trading days after the holiday, with an overall median increase of 2.28% over the following 20 trading days [2][28][29] - Domestic industrial profits saw a significant year-on-year increase in August, with the cumulative year-on-year growth turning positive, and marginal increases in profit margins for mining, manufacturing, and public utilities [2][30] - Internationally, the core PCE growth rate in the US for August met expectations at 2.9%, with a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October 2025 [2][31] Group 2 - The report discusses the importance of lithography machines in the semiconductor industry, emphasizing their role as the most significant category of semiconductor equipment and the continuous development opportunities driven by semiconductor demand [4][33] - The report notes that the semiconductor sector showed strong performance during the week of September 22-26, with an average daily trading volume of 23,092 billion yuan, despite a slight decrease from the previous week [4][34] - Key themes include the domestic validation of lithography machines by SMIC, the high demand for AI and robotics, and the emergence of humanoid robots marking a new era in the industry [4][34][37] Group 3 - The report outlines the "以存代算" (compute by storage) paradigm in AI storage, highlighting its significance in AI inference and the hardware breakthroughs that allow SSDs to participate as core components in AI processing [10] - The report identifies several companies actively involved in the "以存代算" space, including Huawei and Inspur, which are developing products that optimize storage architecture and cache management [10] - The report indicates that the demand for SSDs is expected to grow faster than traditional curves due to the AI storage revolution [10] Group 4 - The report discusses the potential of planetary roller screws in automotive applications, particularly in brake systems and steering systems, highlighting their advantages over traditional technologies [11] - The market share of foreign manufacturers in the planetary roller screw market exceeded 60% in 2022, with Swiss company GSA/Rollvis holding a dominant position [11] - The report anticipates a gradual increase in the market penetration of rear-wheel steering technology using planetary roller screws from 2025 to 2030 [11] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the release of the "Stabilization and Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry" by multiple ministries, which aims to optimize the industry structure and promote high-quality development [20] - The report suggests that the petrochemical sector is transitioning from a focus on expansion to optimizing existing capacities and pursuing high-quality growth opportunities [20] - The report indicates that the chemical sector is expected to benefit from price recovery cycles and the emergence of new high-end materials [20]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 降息预期回落，关税升级 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250928 海外市场复盘（9.22-9.26） 海外权益，本周美股呈"N"型走势，全周收跌。本周一，英伟达和 OpenAI 宣布达成合作，在大型科技股的带动下，美股三大指数集体上涨。本周二 至周四，美股连跌三天。鲍威尔表示美股估值相当高，特朗普宣布征收新 的行业关税，以及周中多位美联储官员表态偏鹰，均打击美股。周五核心 PCE 通胀符合预期，美股反弹。 本周美元上涨。一方面，多名美联储官员放鹰，例如，博斯蒂克表示预期 今年只降息一次；穆萨莱姆表示进一步降息的空间有限；古尔斯比表示下 次会议不愿支持降息。另一方面，本周经济数据偏强，美国二季度 GDP 大 幅上修，耐用品订单增速大超预期，支撑美元。 美债收益率上行。本周，博斯蒂克、穆萨莱姆、古尔斯比、哈玛克等多名 美联储官员放鹰，给市场降息预期泼冷水。美国耐用品订单、二手房销售、 二季度 GDP 终值均高于预期，初请失业金人数低于预期，经济数据支撑美 债收益率上行。另外，美国联邦政府"关门"的风险升温，给长端利率带 来额外的上行压力。 商品方面，黄金、原油、铜均收涨。本周， ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The construction index decreased by 1.67%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 0.74%, indicating that the construction sector underperformed the market by 2.42 percentage points. The cleanroom sector is expected to benefit from the rising production expectations in the U.S. and the upcoming third-quarter reports, which may exceed expectations [1][2][3] - The cleanroom sector is experiencing renewed benefits due to U.S. policies that may require semiconductor companies to match domestic production with imports, potentially benefiting companies like TSMC and Micron Technology [2][13] - The construction sector in Sichuan is seeing a significant increase in new bids, with a total of 218 new projects worth approximately 72.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.20% [3][23] - The cement shipment rate and asphalt operating rate have rebounded, indicating a positive outlook for the conversion of physical workloads in construction projects [4][24] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The construction index fell by 1.67% from September 22 to September 26, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.74%, with only the architectural design sub-sector recording a positive return of 1.02% [5][32] Investment Recommendations - Focus on infrastructure investment opportunities in regions with high growth potential, such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Tibet, as well as sectors like hydropower, coal chemical, and nuclear power [1][36] - Emphasize the cleanroom sector, particularly companies like Baicheng Co., Shenghui Integration, and Yaxiang Integration, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing semiconductor industry developments [17][38] Key Projects and Orders - Sichuan Road and Bridge has seen a significant increase in new bids, with a focus on major provincial projects and government special bond projects to accelerate construction progress [3][23] - The cleanroom sector's order volume remains robust, with Baicheng Co. and Shenghui Integration reporting significant year-on-year growth in new orders [18][19] Sector Performance - The cleanroom sector is expected to maintain a high level of activity, driven by domestic demand for new semiconductor production facilities and the ongoing transition of the semiconductor industry [17][21] - The construction sector is experiencing a structural recovery, with a focus on major transportation infrastructure projects and regional opportunities in high-demand areas [36][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market's vitality index significantly declined, and the bond market is facing the test of trading - disk selling pressure again. The selling pressure from funds was released again in the second half of the week, while large - scale banks increased their net buying of long - end interest - rate bonds, and their sustainability and stabilizing effect need further observation. - Most interest and credit bond funds have recorded negative returns in the past three months, the growth rate of bond fund scale in September is still lower than that of equity funds, and the issuance share of newly established bond funds has declined this week [5][95]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overall Sentiment - The bond market vitality index dropped significantly. As of September 26, it decreased by 17 pcts to 0% compared with September 19, and the 5D - MA decreased by 5 pcts to 16%. There were no warming indicators, and the cooling indicators included the implied tax rate of the 10 - year CDB bond, the trading volume of the active 10Y CDB bond / the balance of 9 - 10Y CDB bonds, the excess level of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio compared with the average of the past 4 years, the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, and the turnover rate of the 30Y treasury bond [1][10][12]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Selection - The net buying strength ranking in the current bond market this week is: money market funds > large - scale banks > insurance > wealth management > other product types > others; the net selling strength ranking is: city commercial banks > rural financial institutions > securities firms > funds > joint - stock banks > foreign - funded banks. For ultra - long bonds, the net buying strength ranking is: insurance > securities firms > wealth management > other product types > others, and the net selling strength ranking is: large - scale banks > funds > city commercial banks > joint - stock banks > rural commercial banks > foreign - funded banks [19]. - The main bond types of various institutions are: large - scale banks focus on 1 - 3Y and 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds; rural commercial banks focus on 3 - 5Y credit bonds; insurance focuses on interest - rate bonds and other bonds over 10Y; funds focus on interest - rate bonds within 1Y; wealth management focuses on interest - rate bonds within 1Y and 3 - 5Y credit bonds; other product types focus on 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds [2][22]. 3.2.2 Trading Disk - The median duration of all - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased by 0.01 years compared with September 19. Among them, the median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds changed by - 0.02 years, - 0.07 years, and + 0.03 years to 5.15 years, 4.81 years, and 3.74 years respectively. The median durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds changed by - 0.07 years and + 0.10 years to 6.39 years and 4.35 years respectively [3][39]. 3.2.3 Allocation Disk - **Primary Market**: The primary subscription demand for treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased this week, and the subscription demand for ultra - long bonds was differentiated. The weighted average full - market multiples of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased from 3.39 times and 3.00 times in the previous week to 2.85 times and 2.80 times respectively. For treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds over 10Y, the weighted average full - market multiples decreased from 3.63 times to 3.33 times and increased from 3.34 times to 3.40 times respectively [53]. - **Secondary Market** - **Large - scale Banks**: The increasing supply of ultra - long bonds may restrict their secondary - market承接 capacity. Since June, large - scale banks have increased their net buying of treasury bonds within 1Y, but the cumulative net buying scale this year is still far lower than that of the same period in 2024. The net buying of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds increased from May to July and declined since August. As of September 26, the cumulative net buying scale of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds this year was 7271 billion yuan [58][60]. - **Rural Commercial Banks**: Their cumulative net buying scale of current bonds this year is significantly weaker than in previous years, mainly due to the weak net buying of short - term bonds within 1Y. However, the net buying of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y current bonds is significantly higher than in previous years [74]. - **Insurance**: The net buying strength of current bonds by insurance this year is significantly higher than in previous years, mainly due to the strong buying of ultra - long bonds over 10Y. As of September 19, the ratio of insurance's cumulative net buying of current bonds to the cumulative issuance scale of government bonds over 10Y was 30.04%, higher than 29.18% at the end of September last year [80]. - **Wealth Management**: Since June, the cumulative net buying scale of current bonds by wealth management has continued to rise. This week, the duration of net - bought current bonds in the secondary market reached the highest point since February 23, 2024. As of September 26, the weighted average duration of cumulative net - bought current bonds was 1.78 years, an increase of 0.03 years compared with September 19 [90][92]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking - Since September, the growth rate of bond fund scale is still lower than that of equity funds. The scale of bond funds and equity funds increased by 1418 billion yuan and 2019 billion yuan respectively in September, compared with 732 billion yuan and 4855 billion yuan in August. - The issuance share of newly established bond - type funds declined this week. The scale of newly established bond funds this week was 106 billion yuan, down from 486 billion yuan in the previous week. - This week, the net value of various types of bond funds dropped significantly, with credit bond funds experiencing larger declines. Most interest and credit bond funds recorded negative returns in the past three months [95].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [2] Core Viewpoints - The 2025-2026 work plan for the petrochemical industry emphasizes stable growth while focusing on economic benefits and high-quality development [4][14] - The plan sets a target for an average annual industrial value-added growth of over 5% and highlights the importance of economic efficiency recovery, innovation, and fine extension [18][19] - The 2025 version of the work plan introduces new measures such as optimizing pilot project management and emphasizes digital and green transformation [5][19] Summary by Sections 1. Work Plan Release - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other ministries jointly issued the "Petrochemical Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" on September 25, 2025 [3][13] 2. Goals and Measures Comparison - The 2025 version maintains a similar average annual growth target of 5% for industrial value-added but places greater emphasis on economic efficiency recovery and detailed targets for innovation and environmental goals [4][19] - The 2025 work plan introduces measures focusing on optimizing supply and enhancing project management, contrasting with the 2023 version's emphasis on major project construction [5][26] 3. Industry Challenges and Responses - The petrochemical industry faces intensified competition and a slowdown in domestic demand, necessitating structural adjustments and a focus on high-quality development [14][18] - The work plan aims to address issues of overcapacity and promote innovation to enhance competitiveness [17][19] 4. Integration with National Policies - The work plan aligns with the "National Unified Market" initiative, aiming for structural optimization and high-quality development in the petrochemical sector [6][14] - The integration of policies from both the industry and government levels is expected to effectively tackle the challenges faced by the petrochemical industry [6][14] 5. Future Investment Opportunities - The shift from a focus on expansion to optimizing existing capacities indicates potential investment opportunities in high-end materials and recovery of price cycles [7][19]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that lithography machines are the largest segment in semiconductor equipment, with continuous growth opportunities driven by increasing semiconductor demand [4][10]. - The evolution of lithography technology focuses on enhancing resolution and reducing critical dimensions, guided by the Raleigh criterion [4][17]. - The global lithography machine market is projected to grow from approximately $258.4 billion in 2022 to $315 billion by 2024 [10][25]. Market Review - In the week of September 22-26, the overall A-share market rose by 0.25%, with semiconductor-related concepts performing strongly [4]. - The average daily trading volume for the A-share market reached 2.3092 trillion yuan, a decrease of 207.1 billion yuan from the previous week [4]. - The net inflow of funds into the semiconductor sector was significant, with major funds flowing into semiconductor and 5G application concepts [4][55]. Key Themes - Lithography Machines: SMIC has initiated domestic lithography machine validation, indicating potential breakthroughs in "bottleneck" technologies [5][25]. - AI and Robotics: The report highlights a surge in policy-driven demand for AI, marking a significant growth phase for the industry [5]. - Humanoid Robots: The introduction of new products signifies the arrival of the "humanoid robot era," accelerating the industrialization process [5]. Policy Dynamics - The report outlines several policies aimed at modernizing the industrial system and promoting technological innovation, emphasizing the importance of advanced manufacturing [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has committed to achieving new industrialization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on high-quality development [6]. Industry Trends - AI and robotics are leading industrial transformation, with global cooperation and technological implementation accelerating [7]. - The report notes that the online sales of digital products, including smart wearables, computers, and mobile phones, have seen over 20% growth from January to August [7]. Lithography Machine Insights - The lithography process is critical in semiconductor manufacturing, accounting for about one-third of overall manufacturing costs and taking up 40%-50% of the time [10][15]. - The complexity of lithography machines is highlighted, with numerous subsystems integrated to achieve high precision [25]. - The domestic lithography machine market in China has surpassed 16.087 billion yuan in 2023, with a production of 124 units [25].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.43 CNY, based on a PEG valuation method [6][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leader in the variable frequency transformer market, benefiting from the steady growth in demand for high-voltage variable frequency drives driven by energy efficiency needs and policy support [2][40]. - The company has a strong market presence with over 25% market share in the variable frequency transformer sector, being one of the earliest manufacturers in China [2][47]. - The company is expanding into new business areas such as data centers, with products like phase-shifting transformers and solid-state transformers under development, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [3][50]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1985, the company specializes in various types of special transformers, power transformers, reactors, and energy storage products, with a focus on variable frequency transformers [1][13]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the actual controllers holding 56.75% of the shares [13]. Main Business - The company is a leading manufacturer of variable frequency transformers, which are essential components of high-voltage variable frequency drives, accounting for approximately 29% of their cost structure [2][44]. - The demand for high-voltage variable frequency drives is expected to continue growing, which will drive the demand for variable frequency transformers upward [2][42]. Incremental Business - Data Centers - The company is developing products for data centers, including phase-shifting transformers and solid-state transformers, which are anticipated to enhance efficiency and meet the evolving needs of modern data centers [3][50]. - The phase-shifting transformer is already being applied in Panama's power supply systems, demonstrating significant efficiency improvements [51]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 478.3 million, 623.4 million, and 833.18 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.9%, 30.3%, and 33.6% respectively [4][5]. - The company is expected to return to profitability in 2025, with a net profit forecast of 42.4 million CNY, following a loss in 2024 [4][36].

Market Analysis - The market shows a calendar effect around the National Day holiday, with a median return of -0.81% in the five trading days before the holiday and a strong median return of 2.27% in the first five trading days after the holiday, with an 80% win rate [1][11][12] - Post-holiday, small-cap indices lead the gains in the first phase, while the second phase sees a general pullback, followed by a resurgence in small-cap performance in the third phase, and a stronger performance from large-cap indices in the fourth phase [2][16][18] Domestic Economic Indicators - Industrial enterprise profits saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.40% in August, with cumulative profits turning positive for the first eight months of the year [3][27] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, highlighting challenges such as insufficient domestic demand [3][38][39] - The transportation sector shows a decline in subway passenger volume, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior [3][41] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index growth aligns with market expectations, indicating stable inflationary pressures, with a probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October at 87.7% [4][53][54] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, economic recovery with a "stronger stronger" market style, and the continued rise of undervalued sectors [5][56]