Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [9] Core Insights - The report highlights that reduced-harm products and oral tobacco have become the core growth engines for British American Tobacco (BAT) and Philip Morris International (PMI) [1][3] - BAT's revenue for the first half of 2025 was £12.069 billion, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, but a 1.8% increase when excluding currency effects, primarily driven by recovery in the US market [1] - PMI reported a revenue of $19.4 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [3] Summary by Sections British American Tobacco (BAT) - BAT's operating profit for the first half of 2025 was £5.069 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with an operating margin rising by 7.5 percentage points to 42.0% [1] - The diluted EPS for BAT was £2.036, up 1.6% year-on-year [1] - The number of consumers of BAT's reduced-harm products reached 30.5 million, an increase of 1.4 million year-on-year [2] - Modern oral products generated £470 million in revenue, a 38.1% increase year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 42.2% [2] Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's gross profit for the first half of 2025 was $13.1 billion, a 12.0% increase year-on-year [3] - The adjusted diluted EPS for PMI was $3.6, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [3] - PMI's total shipment volume for the first half of 2025 was 387.9 billion units, a 2.5% increase year-on-year [4] - Reduced-harm product shipments reached 87.9 billion units, a 13.1% increase year-on-year, with 41.5 million consumers globally, an increase of 5 million [4] Regional Performance - In Japan, IQOS covered over 10 million legal-age consumers, with a shipment volume of 13.9 billion units in Q2 2025, a 3.2% increase year-on-year [6] - In the EU, IQOS shipments reached 6 billion units in Q2 2025, a 13.21% increase year-on-year [6] - In South Korea, IQOS shipments were 1.6 billion units in Q2 2025, a 12.8% increase year-on-year [6] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the vaping supply chain, including companies like Smoore International and Yihua Healthcare, as well as the tobacco supply chain with companies like China Tobacco Hong Kong and China Boton [7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the low prices of piglets and the high average weight of market pigs, indicating a significant expectation gap in the pig sector [1][2] - The dairy and beef sectors are experiencing a potential new cycle, with a focus on the recovery of milk prices and the initiation of a beef super cycle [3][4] - The pet food sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in exports, reflecting the growth of the pet economy [5][6] - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports and demand recovery, particularly in the white and egg-laying chicken segments [7][8] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the importance of biological breeding strategies [9][10] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to market share growth and consistent performance of leading companies like Haida Group [11][12] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of August 2, the average price of pigs is 14.35 CNY/kg, down 3.1% from the previous week, with a profit of approximately 141 CNY per head for self-breeding [1][12] - The price of piglets has reached a new low for the year, with 7kg piglets priced at 429 CNY/head [1][12] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong profitability in the pig sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][13] Beef Sector - The average price of live cattle is 26.49 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [3][14] - The report indicates that the dairy industry is nearing the end of a capacity reduction phase, with significant losses expected to drive a rebound in milk prices [4][15] Pet Sector - Domestic brands in the pet food market are growing rapidly, with notable sales figures reported for cat and dog food [5][16] - Exports of pet food have increased, with a total of 16.79 million tons exported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [5][16] Poultry Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of breeding imports and the potential for price increases in yellow chickens due to recovering demand [6][7] - The average price of egg-laying chickens is expected to remain high due to import restrictions [7][21] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving food security through improved agricultural practices and the promotion of biotechnology [9][23] - Key recommendations include investing in leading seed companies and agricultural resource firms [9][23] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its increasing market share and strong performance [11][24] - The report notes a significant recovery in the aquaculture and feed sectors after a prolonged downturn [11][24]

Group 1: Report Core View - This week, the pressure on the capital market eased, with the central bank increasing support and the government bond issuance scale declining. The capital supply - demand pattern improved, and interest rates dropped. In August, liquidity will be "precisely regulated", with potential disturbances from large - scale certificate of deposit maturities, accelerated government bond issuance, and significant long - and medium - term liquidity maturities [1][22] - Looking at specific time points, disturbances may intensify around the tax payment period in the first and middle of August. Next week, the large - scale expiration of open - market operations is a concern, but the seasonal loosening at the beginning of the month may mitigate the pressure [2] Group 2: Market Data Summary Open Market - From July 28 to August 1, the net open - market injection was 69 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week. From August 4 to August 8, the open - market operations due to expire amount to 166.32 billion yuan [3] Government Bonds - This week, the net government bond payment was 287.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned government bond issuance is 578.5 billion yuan, with net payments of 339 billion yuan [37] Money Market - As of August 1, compared with July 25, various capital interest rates declined. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 6716.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 982 billion yuan from July 21 - 25. The net capital outflow of the banking system averaged 3.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 156.5 billion yuan from last week [5] Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - From July 28 to August 1, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 386.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 16.2 billion yuan. Next week, the maturity scale is 583.8 billion yuan, an increase of 180.9 billion yuan from this week [5][81]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing System Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index to determine the market trend[2][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average of the WIND All A Index - Compute the percentage difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} \times 100\% $ - If the absolute value of the distance is greater than 3% and the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, the market is in an upward trend[2][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies upward market trends and provides actionable signals for investors[2][9] 2. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies medium-term industry allocation opportunities by focusing on sectors with potential for recovery or growth[2][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze industry-specific factors such as valuation, growth potential, and market sentiment - Recommend sectors like "distressed reversal" industries, Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, Hang Seng dividend low-volatility sectors, and securities for medium-term allocation[2][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides clear guidance for sector rotation and captures medium-term opportunities in specific industries[2][9] 3. Model Name: TWO BETA Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying high-growth sectors in the technology domain[2][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze beta factors related to technology sectors - Recommend sectors such as solid-state batteries, robotics, and military industries based on their growth potential and market trends[2][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing high-growth opportunities in the technology sector[2][9] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Model - **Key Metrics**: - Moving average distance: 6.06% (absolute value > 3%, indicating an upward trend)[2][9] - WIND All A Index trendline: 5480 points[2][9] - Profitability effect: 1.45% (positive, indicating sustained market inflows)[2][9] 2. Industry Allocation Model - **Key Metrics**: - Recommended sectors: distressed reversal industries, Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, Hang Seng dividend low-volatility sectors, and securities[2][9] 3. TWO BETA Model - **Key Metrics**: - Recommended sectors: solid-state batteries, robotics, and military industries[2][9] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Profitability Effect - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the market's ability to generate positive returns, serving as a key indicator for market sentiment and fund inflows[2][9] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the profitability effect as a percentage value - Positive values indicate favorable market conditions for sustained fund inflows[2][9] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is a reliable indicator of market sentiment and a useful tool for timing investment decisions[2][9] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Profitability Effect - **Key Metrics**: - Profitability effect value: 1.45% (positive, indicating favorable market conditions)[2][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market has not formed a trend - based market, and it is expected to return to a volatile state after short - term emotional fluctuations. To obtain excess returns in the volatile market, one can first seek assets with relative volatility and liquidity on the curve, and then look for individual bonds with relative value. Currently, 30 - year Treasury bonds are recommended [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Bond Market Review - This week, the bond market fluctuated sharply. The first half of the week saw a cycle of repair - decline - repair around the performance of the commodity and equity markets and the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The second half was initially stabilizing but was hit by a sharp volatility at the end of Friday due to tax policy changes. However, the 10 - year Treasury yield remained in a narrow range of 1.70% - 1.75% [1][9]. - From 25th July to 1st August, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1.0BP, 3.6BP, 2.7BP, and 2.3BP respectively [11]. Next Week's Key Bond Market Concerns - A sudden change in the tax system for Treasury bonds occurred on Friday night. Next week, the bond market will first price this event. "New bonds" refer to those issued on or after 8th August with new codes, while "old bonds" are those existing before this date, including active and non - active ones [18]. - Next week, the focus is on the allocation desks' scramble for active old bonds. Old bonds may be more popular among allocation desks due to tax advantages. Non - active bonds are already concentrated in allocation desks with limited liquidity, so it is expected that allocation desks will target active old bonds. Trading desks may sell at this time and wait to trade new bonds later. Also, trading desks may increase purchases of short - term credit bonds and certificates of deposit in the short term [2][19]. - Bond yields are expected to quickly price the scramble behavior next week. The spread between new and old bonds is expected to be smaller than the static calculation result. Old bonds will have a liquidity discount after being held by allocation desks, and some institutions are insensitive to tax rates [2][20]. Next - Stage Strategy Considerations - The bond market is in a volatile state and has not shown a trend reversal. To gain excess returns, one can first find assets with relative volatility and liquidity on the curve and then look for individual bonds with relative value. Currently, 30 - year Treasury bonds are recommended [25]. - The ultra - long end of the curve has volatility and opportunities. In the second quarter, ultra - long bonds created relative volatility in a "sideways" market. They are more sensitive to short - term factors. Since the second quarter, the intraday amplitude of the 30 - year Treasury active bond was higher than that of the 10 - year Treasury active bond on 60 out of 84 trading days [25]. - After the bond market adjustment in mid - to - late July, the spread of ultra - long - end interest - rate bonds has widened. As of 1st August, the 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 24BP, at the 90% percentile in the past year [34]. - In August, there will be issuance disturbances for ultra - long bonds. After the issuance of the 50 - year special Treasury bond on 1st August, 3 more ultra - long special Treasury bonds are to be issued. With the expected reduction of the预定 interest rate in September and the possible scramble for old bonds by insurance companies after the tax reform, the allocation demand for ultra - long bonds is expected to be strong [4][36]. - During the issuance of ultra - long bonds, the relative value of individual bonds will change. If the issuance scale of "25 Special Treasury 05" on 8th August remains the same as the previous two issues, its scale will reach 24.9 billion yuan. It may become the second - most active bond, and the yields of the three bonds are expected to converge, with the yield of "25 Special Treasury 02" possibly decreasing by about 2BP [5][37].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the basic metals sector, with copper and aluminum prices experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and weak demand [4][10][20] - Precious metals are expected to see upward movement in gold prices driven by recession fears and adjustments in U.S. economic data [6][24] - The report highlights the stability in the rare earth sector, with expectations for improved fundamentals in the upcoming quarter [8] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Price has retreated to 78,170 CNY/ton, with low inventory providing some support despite seasonal demand weakness [4][13] - Aluminum: Prices have decreased, with the average price at 20,623 CNY/ton, influenced by rising social inventory and subdued market demand [5][20] - Precious Metals: Gold price averaged 767.63 CNY/gram, down 1.67%, while silver averaged 9,158 CNY/kg, down 1.44% [6][24] 2. Minor Metals - Antimony: Prices remain stable, with market dynamics showing limited supply and demand [7][40] - Lithium: Carbonate prices have dropped, reflecting a cooling market sentiment [40] - Cobalt: Prices are strong due to tight supply conditions, with cobalt intermediate prices rising [42][43] - Tin: Prices have declined, with the average price at 33,410 USD/ton, reflecting weakened macro sentiment [45] - Tungsten: Prices have increased across the board, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 195,500 CNY/ton [51] - Molybdenum: Prices have surged, with molybdenum concentrate averaging 4,315 CNY/ton, driven by strong market demand [61][62] 3. Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are stable, with light rare earth oxide prices increasing by 3.3% to 531,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential for significant improvement in fundamentals [8]

关税和非农冲击，海外市场变盘 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250803 固定收益 | 固定收益点评 海外央行动态 本周举行 FOMC 会议，维持利率不变，符合市场预期，会议声明偏鸽派， 但美联储主席鲍威尔表态略偏鹰，一方面，对 9 月降息保持谨慎，表示尚 未就 9 月利率做出任何决定。另一方面，强调对通胀担忧，表示商品通胀 正在上升，关税正在推高一些商品价格，核心通胀中有 30%或 40%来自关税。 本周，市场对美联储的降息预期大落大起。FOMC 会议由于鲍威尔略鹰， 令 9 月降息的概率跌破 40%；但周五发布的非农数据"爆冷"，加之美联储 鹰派委员库格勒辞职，令市场对 9 月降息的预期大幅升至 80%以上。截至 8 月 1 日，市场预期 9 月降息 25bp 的概率为 80.3%，预计年内降息 3 次， 即 9 月、10 月、12 月的议息会议连续三次降息 25bp（一周前，市场预期 年内仅降息 2 次）。 海外市场复盘（7.28-8.1） 海外权益，美股结束上涨、集体收跌。本周海外权益走势的因素主要在于 关税和经济数据。经济数据方面，职位空缺不及预期，二季度 GDP 总体超 预期但结构不佳，潜在 ...

Domestic Economic Analysis - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to actively prepare for the "15th Five-Year Plan" and to complete the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [9][10] - The manufacturing PMI for July decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 50.1% [12][14] - Industrial profits in June showed a narrowing year-on-year decline of -4.3%, compared to -9.1% previously, with a slight decrease in inventory levels [19][21] - High-frequency indicators in transportation, such as subway passenger volume, showed a rebound, indicating some recovery in activity [26] International Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July were below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, significantly lower than the anticipated 110,000 [33] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.2%, reflecting a cooling labor market [33][34] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not lower interest rates in July, with future decisions dependent on economic data [33] Industry Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [3] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a cautious approach in the current market environment, which is showing signs of overheating [3] - Emphasis is placed on the need for structural monetary policy tools to support economic recovery and innovation in key industries [10][11]

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 中石化 ROE 提升来自哪些方面？ 2） 成品油消费税改革或加速推进：2025 年初发布《关于推动成品油流通 高质量发展的意见》，二十届三中全会也明确提出"推进消费税征收环节后 移并稳步下划地方"，或加速不合规地炼成品油出清。 3） 高油价等不利因素消除：后续原油供给偏宽松，油价或在美国页岩油 盈亏平衡点附近震荡，根据油价弹性测算可见，Brent 油价为 60-80 美金区 间或是中石化的业绩舒适区。 风险提示：1） 政策不及预期风险；2）行业竞争加剧风险；3）需求不及 预期风险；4）原料大幅波动风险。 中石化 ROE 边际改善或已出现积极信号，主要来自以下三方面： 1） 政策红利或扭转化工"内卷"局面：石化行业"反内卷"政策频繁出 台，推动行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，化工品格局或改善。 2025 年 08 月 03 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524090002 jiangmeidan@tfzq.com 行业走势图 ...

Group 1: Davis Double Strategy - The Davis Double strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, waiting for growth to manifest, and then selling for a multiplier effect, achieving returns from both earnings per share (EPS) and PE increases [7][10] - The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08% [10] - Year-to-date, the strategy has a cumulative absolute return of 29.82%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 21.30%, with a weekly excess return of 3.76% [10][14] Group 2: Net Profit Gap Strategy - The Net Profit Gap strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises, and "gap" indicates a significant upward price jump on the first trading day after earnings announcements [12][14] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.83%, with an annualized excess return of 27.67% over the benchmark [14] - The current year's cumulative absolute return for the strategy is 35.44%, exceeding the benchmark index by 26.93%, with a weekly excess return of 0.43% [14] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, utilizing PB-ROE and PE-growth factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong earnings potential [16] - The strategy has shown stable excess returns historically, with a year-to-date excess return of 17.08% relative to the CSI 300 index, and a weekly excess return of 0.45% [16] - The portfolio's performance for the current year reflects a 20.13% absolute return, with a 17.08% excess return over the benchmark [16]