Supply Side - The approach to eliminate outdated production capacity includes market-driven mergers and government guidance, as seen in Japan's steel industry where the number of major companies reduced from six to three, achieving a combined crude steel production share of 71.6% by 2011[8] - Japan's government encouraged mergers through tax incentives, leading to the formation of Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation, the world's second-largest steel company, with a crude steel production share of 80.7% by 2014[8] - China has also implemented market-oriented reforms to promote mergers and capacity elimination, resulting in the establishment of China Baowu Steel Group, the largest steel conglomerate globally[8] Demand Side - Japan's "National Income Doubling Plan" in the 1960s aimed to boost domestic demand, resulting in an annual income growth exceeding 10% and private consumption reaching over 60% of GDP[20] - From 1983 to 1989, Japan's construction investment surged from 27.5 trillion yen to 46.4 trillion yen, driving steel consumption by approximately 10.3 trillion yen[20] - The U.S. "Marshall Plan" from 1948 to 1952 provided $15 billion in aid to Europe, facilitating the export of surplus production and stimulating the U.S. economy[22] Policy Measures - The U.S. has established a comprehensive bankruptcy procedure allowing companies to reorganize during bankruptcy, maximizing value for stakeholders[24] - Japan's legislation in 1978 provided employment assistance for laid-off workers during capacity reduction, including job training and extended unemployment benefits[25] - Risk factors include unexpected fluctuations in overseas economies and potential delays in the update of public data used in the report[26]

Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The first technology innovation green corporate bond on the Beijing Stock Exchange was successfully issued on June 25, 2025, by China Communications First Highway Engineering Group Co., Ltd. with a total issuance scale of 300 million yuan[2] - The bond has a maturity of 60 days and an issuance interest rate of 1.60%, marking a historical low for short-term corporate bonds issued by central state-owned enterprises on the exchange[2][13] - Multiple financial institutions, including SPDB, Xiamen International Bank, Huaxia Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and CITIC Securities, participated in the subscription[2] Group 2: Bond Characteristics and Impact - This bond is characterized by both "technology innovation" and "green" labels, with all raised funds allocated to the green building sector[3][15] - The successful issuance supports the green transformation in infrastructure, promoting a high-quality development path through the integration of technology finance and green finance[3][15] Group 3: Support Measures and Future Outlook - The Beijing Stock Exchange has introduced nine specific measures to support the development of technology innovation bonds, including broadening the range of issuers and simplifying information disclosure[4][18] - The exchange aims to enhance financing support for the technology innovation sector and will continue to innovate bond varieties while strengthening the synergy between equity and bond markets[4][18] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology for investment opportunities in 2025[4][17][20] - Specific companies highlighted include Krait (data center), Suzhou Axis (robotics), and Hualing (semiconductors), among others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance[4][17][20] Group 5: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include policy risk, liquidity risk, macroeconomic environment risk, and the risk of technological innovation not meeting expectations[21][22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [3]. Core Views - The company has established a dual-brand strategy and is implementing a three-year leap plan aimed at increasing both volume and profitability. The focus is on structural optimization and cost reduction while improving revenue and profit margins [8][19]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in revenue and profit margins, with a notable increase in sales for its high-end brand, Xiangjie, particularly after the launch of the S9 extended-range version [9][52]. - The company aims to position itself among the top players in the new energy vehicle market by 2027, with ambitious sales targets for both its brands [19]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the first publicly listed new energy vehicle company in China and has established a deep partnership with Huawei, enhancing its product offerings and market presence [13]. - The dual-brand strategy involves the simultaneous development of the Extreme Fox and Xiangjie brands, with a clear three-year plan to boost operations [16]. 2. Financial Performance - The company has transitioned from B2C to C2C products, with revenue growth driven by improved product structure. Revenue for 2023 and 2024 is projected at 14.32 billion and 14.51 billion yuan, respectively, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 50% and 1% [22]. - The company has implemented cost control measures while ensuring R&D investment, leading to a recovery in net profit margins to their highest levels since 2020 [26]. 3. Xiangjie Brand Development - The Xiangjie brand is gaining recognition in the high-end market, with the S9 extended-range version showing significant sales improvement. The brand is positioned to compete directly with established luxury brands [9][49]. - The company is leveraging its partnership with Huawei to enhance its product offerings and market positioning, aiming to capture a larger share of the high-end sedan market [30]. 4. Extreme Fox Brand Expansion - The Extreme Fox brand is expanding its sales channels and enhancing its online presence, resulting in a doubling of store numbers and significant sales growth. The brand's sales reached over 13,500 units in May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 200% [10][19]. - The company is set to launch multiple new models, which are expected to further boost sales and market penetration [10]. 5. Market Positioning and Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to capture market share in the high-end electric vehicle segment, with a focus on improving brand recognition and product offerings. The high-end sedan market is identified as a blue ocean opportunity with limited competition [55]. - The company anticipates that the Xiangjie brand will be able to replace some of the market share held by traditional luxury brands due to its growing recognition and competitive product offerings [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The successful issuance of the first technology innovation green corporate bond on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) marks a significant milestone, combining both "technology innovation" and "green" labels [4][14] - The bond, issued by China Communications First Public Bureau Group Co., Ltd., raised 300 million yuan with a term of 60 days and an interest rate of 1.60%, setting a historical low for short-term corporate bonds in the exchange market [3][14] - The funds raised will be fully invested in the green building sector, providing financial support for the green transformation in infrastructure [5][14] - The BSE has introduced nine specific measures to support the development of technology innovation bonds, enhancing financing support for the technology innovation sector [7][12] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The BSE currently has 274 listed companies with a total market value of 845.857 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 511.769 billion yuan [1] Recent Developments - The issuance of the first technology innovation green corporate bond is a response to national strategies aimed at promoting financial support for green and technological advancements [14] - The BSE is actively conducting training and research to align funding with the needs of technology innovation enterprises [7][14] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, and consumer goods for potential investment opportunities in 2025 [9][13] - Specific companies highlighted include: - Data Centers: Krait and Shuguang Data Creation - Robotics: Suzhou Axis, Audiwei, Jun Chuang Technology, and Fuheng New Materials - Semiconductors: Hualing Co. and Kaide Quartz - Consumer Goods: Taihu Snow, Boshenglong, Lusi Co., Kangbiter, and Thunder Technology [9][13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading all-industry chain reality entertainment platform in China, engaging in content production, promotion, distribution, IP derivative licensing, and ticket management for entertainment activities [6][11]. - The IP industry is identified as a rapidly growing market with significant potential, with the Chinese IP market projected to grow from 91 billion yuan in 2020 to 126.2 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.5% [30][35]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of 78.91 billion yuan, 95.34 billion yuan, and 116.83 billion yuan for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 21%, and 23% [6][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates through three main segments: content production, ticketing and technology platforms, and IP derivatives, leveraging resources from the Alibaba ecosystem [11][12]. - It has participated in the production and promotion of over 300 films, with significant contributions to the Chinese box office [11][12]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 3.5 billion yuan, 5.04 billion yuan, and 6.7 billion yuan for FY23, FY24, and FY25, with year-on-year growth rates of 44% and 33% for FY24 and FY25 respectively [21]. - Adjusted EBITA for the same periods is projected at 310 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 810 million yuan, with a consistent growth rate of 61% for FY24 and FY25 [21]. IP Market Insights - The IP industry is characterized by a dual-sided extension model, with significant growth opportunities in both upstream and downstream operations [27][30]. - The report highlights that the average unit licensing fee can leverage over 25 times the gross merchandise value (GMV) of licensed products, indicating a lucrative market potential [33]. Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from a robust integration of Alibaba's resources, enhancing its market position in ticketing and live entertainment [6][11]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong market share in ticketing, with nearly 100% coverage of major concert projects [6][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with an expected relative performance increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [9]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience amid external disturbances, presenting opportunities for seasonal layout [3]. - The brand's down jackets showed strong performance, with stable profit levels [3]. - The expansion of product categories is leading growth, and the long-term development of the company is viewed positively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024/25, the company achieved a revenue of 25,902 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3,514 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [4]. - The overall gross margin was 57.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 13.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The main brand's down jacket business generated revenue of 21,668 million yuan, growing by 11.0% and accounting for 83.7% of total revenue [5]. - The brand "Bosideng" saw revenue increase by 10.1% to 18,481 million yuan, with a gross margin of 69.0% [5]. - The "Xuezhongfei" brand achieved revenue of 2,206 million yuan, up 9.2%, while the "Bingjie" brand's revenue decreased by 12.9% to 127 million yuan [5]. Channel and Operational Efficiency - The company is optimizing its channel structure with a net increase of 253 retail outlets, totaling 3,470, including 1,236 self-operated and 2,234 franchised stores [5]. - Online sales reached 7,575 million yuan, growing by 9.3%, with the online revenue of the down jacket business accounting for 34.5% of its segment revenue [5]. - The OEM business grew significantly, with revenue of 3,373 million yuan, up 26.4%, while the women's wear segment faced challenges with a revenue decline of 20.6% [5]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The overall gross margin decreased to 57.3%, primarily due to the faster growth of lower-margin OEM business compared to the brand business [5]. - The net profit margin improved to 13.6%, supported by a decrease in the sales expense ratio by 1.8 percentage points to 32.9% [5]. - The company maintained healthy inventory turnover with a total inventory of 3,951 million yuan and a turnover period of 118 days [5]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 3,911 million yuan for FY2026, 4,345 million yuan for FY2027, and 4,784 million yuan for FY2028, with growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 10% respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the overall prices of industrial metals have risen, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc showing weekly changes of 2.3%, 1.3%, 2.3%, and 4.9% respectively [4][27] - The non-ferrous metal sector index outperformed the market, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index closing at 5094.64 points, up 5.11% week-on-week, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.20 percentage points [4][25] - The report highlights that the decline in the US dollar index has led to a general increase in basic metal prices, suggesting limited downside potential for these prices in the long term [10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market has risen, with the non-ferrous metal sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [19] - Domestic metal prices have generally increased, with specific weekly changes noted for LME and SHFE metals [27] Macro Factors - In China, the PMI for May showed a slight recovery at 49.5, while the CPI remained negative at -0.1% [6][37] - The US GDP for Q1 was revised down to a year-on-year growth of 1.99%, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.5% [6][39] - European manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery, while global manufacturing PMI continued to decline [7][45] Basic Metals Analysis - For electrolytic aluminum, the report notes a strong price increase due to low inventory levels and a declining dollar [8][47] - The aluminum processing sector's average operating rate decreased to 58.8%, indicating a slight decline in demand [9][47] - The report indicates that the global aluminum inventory has increased, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory rising to 505,000 tons [9][47] - In terms of profitability, the industry maintains a profit margin of over 3,000 yuan per ton, with current aluminum prices at 20,940 yuan per ton [9][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry, emphasizing the potential for price increases in rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the defense and military industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The grand military parade on September 3 will showcase new generation equipment and new combat forces, emphasizing the importance of unmanned intelligent systems, underwater operations, electronic warfare, and hypersonic technologies [9][22] - The appointment of Zhang Yujin as the new chairman of China Aviation Engine Group is expected to accelerate procurement and capital operations within the industry, indicating a turning point for the aviation engine sector [12][23] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry consists of 143 listed companies with a total market value of 26,967.47 billion and a circulating market value of 22,823.81 billion [3] Market Performance - The defense and military index rose by 6.90%, outperforming other major indices, with a current PE(TTM) of 68.4 times [8][42][48] Key Developments - The establishment of a joint laboratory for key vacuum measurement devices in nuclear fusion aims to promote independent innovation in this field [14][31] - The revision of the civil aviation law focuses on the development of the low-altitude economy and passenger rights [15][32] - The successful test of the second-stage propulsion system of the LQ-2 liquid launch vehicle marks a significant step towards enhancing China's capabilities in commercial space [17][37] Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: - Military electronics: Zhenhua Technology, Hongyuan Electronics, Huada Electronics [26] - Missile industry chain: Tianqin Equipment, Zhimin Technology [26] - Domestic engines: Aero Engine Corporation of China, Aero Engine Control [27] - New domains: Satellite internet and low-altitude economy companies [28]

履约形态适配中国土壤，即时零售潜力或超预期 ——即时零售行业研究 评级： 增持（首次） 执业证书编号：S0740523110001 Email：suchang@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 59 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 5,581.43 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 5,247.73 | 一般零售 证券研究报告/行业深度报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：苏畅 报告摘要 核心观点：受制于较高履约成本，即时零售在发源地美国现仍是小众市场。但在中国， 在强烈的便捷需求，与显著成本结构优势共振下，即时零售较大概率成为一种主流的 零售模式。美团在履约体系与用户心智上具有较为显著优势，即时零售业务的发展有 望为其提高估值潜力。 分析师：郑澄怀 各国零售行业演进的理念是一致的，但最优履约形态受到人口、城市形态等因素影响。 基于对零售行业国别对比研究，我们发现优秀的零售企业均有着一致的理念：为消费 者降低交易成本。但具体的履约形态，在 ...

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 证券研究报告 信用业务周报 近期科技金融为何强势反弹？ 2025年6月30日 中泰证券研究所 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】如何看待科技金融强势反弹？ 3 • 一、如何看待科技金融强势反弹？ • 近期A股科技板块强势反弹，背后是宏观风险缓解与市场风险偏好修复的共振结果。一方面，中东局 势超市场预期平息，大幅缓解市场地缘政治担忧，原油价格显著回落，带动通胀预期下降，流动性环 境改善，全球权益资产价格上涨；另一方面，特朗普近期在外交政策上的表态，特别是在以伊问题上 的处理降低了市场对其潜在执政不确定性的担忧，而这一点正是一季度部分资本离开美国避险的主要 原因，故近期美元资产回流，美股强于欧股、黄金走弱、美债收益率回落，形成与一季度全球资产组 合相对的"反向组合"。美债收益率下行和纳斯达克指数走强，不仅从流动性角度为A股提供支撑，也通 过科技股估值和情绪的外溢效应利好A股科技板块。这一逻辑亦与我们此前提示 ...