Core Insights - The report highlights the "Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy" which has achieved an absolute return of 63.03% this year, significantly outperforming the benchmark index by 39.07% [3][11] - The "Davis Double-Click Strategy" has shown a historical annualized return of 26.45% from 2010 to 2017, with consistent excess returns exceeding 11% each year during that period [3][7] - The "Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio" has provided a relative excess return of 17.41% this year, indicating strong performance compared to the CSI 300 index [13][17] Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click Strategy involves buying stocks with low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios that have growth potential, aiming to sell once growth is realized and PE increases, thus achieving a "double-click" effect on earnings per share (EPS) and PE [3][6] - Historical backtesting from 2010 to 2017 shows the strategy's annualized excess return of 21.08% against the benchmark [7] - The strategy has generated a cumulative absolute return of 48.89% this year, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 24.92% [8] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy focuses on stocks that show significant upward price gaps on the first trading day following earnings announcements, indicating market approval of earnings surprises [10][11] - This strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.22% since 2010, with a cumulative absolute return of 63.03% this year, outperforming the benchmark by 39.07% [11][12] - The strategy's performance is based on selecting stocks that have exceeded earnings expectations over the past two months [10] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles [13][17] - The portfolio aims to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and growth potential, utilizing factors like PBROE and PEG [13] - This year, the portfolio has achieved a relative excess return of 17.41% compared to the CSI 300 index, demonstrating its effectiveness [17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is not explicitly mentioned in the report regarding the specific investment rating for the bond market [17] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of ultra - long bonds next year is prominent, and there is a need for the spread to widen. The market is currently trading this trend in advance, and the focus has shifted from short - term factors to long - term supply - demand issues, which is a long - term negative for the market. However, there may be short - term over - selling [3][15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market Performance This Week - Ultra - long bonds had a deep decline this week. The 30 - year active bond yield rose from 2.18% last week to 2.28% (up 10BP). The 10 - year bond was relatively stable, with a maximum decline of about 3BP this week and has fluctuated between 1.8% - 1.85% since October. Ultra - long bonds deviated from the stock - bond seesaw, with multiple days of simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds [3][5] New Factors This Week - The Ministry of Finance's positive stance on future fiscal policy has led to market expectations for next year's deficit rate. There are concerns about fund dividends at the end of the year, increasing the pressure on bond fund redemptions. The market's focus is shifting from short - term redemption issues to long - term bond market supply - demand issues, and the supply - demand of ultra - long bonds/local bonds is evolving from point - like to "framework - like" problems, with the spread of ultra - long bonds being re - evaluated [3][5] Demand Side Analysis - **Insurance**: Due to slower liability expansion, asset allocation changes, lower premium income growth (the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of premium income in October 2025 dropped to 7.99%) due to falling predetermined interest rates, more marginal incremental funds flowing to the equity market, and the promotion of dividend - type insurance (with premiums exceeding 700 billion by the end of Q3 2025, up over 10% year - on - year), the demand for ultra - long bonds has significantly weakened. Currently, insurance mainly buys ultra - long bonds from a trading perspective, and local bonds have higher cost - effectiveness than national bonds [3][6] - **Banks**: Constrained by interest rate indicators, banks are difficult to take on a large amount of ultra - long bonds. Due to the large issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds in the past two years, the duration gap of banks' assets and liabilities has been magnified. Under the IRRBB regulatory framework, the interest rate risk of bank books is relatively large. As of the end of 2024, the average economic value sensitivity of state - owned banks (ΔEVE/primary capital) was 12.34%, and some banks' indicators were close to the regulatory attention level of 15%. Banks may mainly buy short - term bonds in secondary bond allocation [3][8] - **Trading Desk (Funds)**: The large redemption pressure of funds and the end of the unilateral bond market have weakened the trading enthusiasm for ultra - long bonds. Since the second half of this year, bond funds have continuously sold ultra - long bonds. When the bull - bond trend ends, a large amount of funds will withdraw from such assets [3][9] Supply Side Analysis - **Policy Tone**: In early December, the Minister of Finance mentioned in a signed article that "beyond - expected" policy measures would be introduced, which may increase the supply of ultra - long bonds [3][13] - **Supply Scale**: If the deficit rate is further raised from this year's 4.0% level, the supply of government bonds may increase by nearly one trillion yuan [3][13] - **Supply Maturity**: Since 2024, the issuance scale of long - term and ultra - long - term government bonds has increased significantly, and the proportion of government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years has risen from 20% in 2021 to 26% in 2025. If this trend continues next year, the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds will increase. However, if the demand for ultra - long - term bonds in the secondary market weakens, it may affect primary issuance, and the maturity structure of local bonds may be adjusted first [3][13]

- Model Name: Industry Trend Allocation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to identify industry trends and allocate investments accordingly; Model Construction Process: The model uses historical data and technical indicators to identify industry trends. It focuses on industries such as liquor and non-bank financials for mid-term reversal signals, and recommends technology sectors, commercial aerospace, and consumer electronics based on the TWO BETA model. The model also shows that the battery and industrial metals sectors continue to trend upwards[2][5][7]; Model Evaluation: The model is effective in identifying industry trends and making allocation recommendations based on historical data and technical indicators[2][5][7] - Model Name: TWO BETA Model; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to recommend sectors based on their beta values; Model Construction Process: The model uses beta values to identify sectors with high growth potential. It continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on commercial aerospace and consumer electronics[2][5][7]; Model Evaluation: The model is effective in identifying high-growth sectors based on beta values[2][5][7] - Model Name: Timing System; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to distinguish the overall market environment using long-term and short-term moving averages; Model Construction Process: The model calculates the distance between the 120-day and 20-day moving averages of the WIND All A index. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6247 and the 120-day moving average at 5930, with a difference of 5.33%. The model also considers the 5-day moving average and the trend line to determine the market's oscillating pattern[2][5][7]; Model Evaluation: The model is effective in identifying market trends and oscillations based on moving averages[2][5][7] - Model Name: Position Management Model; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to manage stock positions based on valuation indicators and short-term trends; Model Construction Process: The model uses the PE and PB ratios of the WIND All A index to determine the stock position. The PE ratio is at the 80th percentile, indicating a moderate level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a lower level. Based on these indicators and short-term trends, the model suggests a 70% stock position for absolute return products[8]; Model Evaluation: The model is effective in managing stock positions based on valuation indicators and short-term trends[8] Model Backtesting Results - Industry Trend Allocation Model, Weekly Excess Return: 1.40%[1] - TWO BETA Model, Weekly Excess Return: 1.40%[1] - Timing System, Weekly Excess Return: 1.40%[1] - Position Management Model, Weekly Excess Return: 1.40%[1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a rotation with a focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, technology, and non-bank financials, driven by short-term positive events [2][10] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw significant gains, with prices of copper, silver, and tin rising sharply, leading to a weekly increase of 5.35% [2][10] - The semiconductor and domestic computing power sectors also performed well, highlighted by the debut of Moer Thread, which surged 468% on its first day of trading, boosting the valuations of leading companies in the semiconductor chain [2][10] Group 2 - Domestic policy signals are expected to focus on structural optimization and stabilizing growth as the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, with potential fiscal policy adjustments anticipated [3][11] - The report suggests that the fiscal deficit rate may be raised from 4.0% to 4.5%, indicating a more proactive fiscal stance to support growth, especially in the context of limited monetary policy flexibility [3][11] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is highlighted as a key event, with an 86.2% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut, which could stabilize the market in the short term [12][17] Group 3 - The report notes a cautious market sentiment with net inflows and outflows being relatively small, as investors await clearer policy signals [4][13] - ETF funds showed a reversal from previous outflows to small net inflows, particularly in the dividend index ETF, which has seen consistent inflows for a month [4][13] - The report emphasizes that the market is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in early December, with a focus on potential trading opportunities in small-cap and more elastic consumer sectors [5][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company reported a steady revenue growth with a dividend payout ratio increase [3] - The company achieved a revenue of 8.39 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.89 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year [5][6] - The average property management service price increased to 2.47 yuan per square meter, up 0.14 yuan from the same period in 2024 [6] - The company continues to expand its scale, with third-party project contracts reaching approximately 1.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 15,070 million - 2024A: 16,342 million - 2025E: 17,650 million - 2026E: 18,885 million - 2027E: 20,207 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 10% for 2023, decreasing to 7% by 2027 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 1,380 million in 2023 to 1,843 million in 2027, with growth rates of 24% in 2023 and stabilizing around 7-8% thereafter [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 2.49 in 2023 to 3.33 in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 12.8 to 9.6 [4] Operational Efficiency - The company maintains a healthy cash position with cash and cash equivalents at 9.65 billion, a slight decrease of 2.5% from the end of 2024 [9] - The expense ratio improved to 5.4%, down 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [9] - The company aims to enhance growth momentum, solidify quality foundations, improve organizational efficiency, and strengthen technological empowerment to achieve simultaneous growth in scale and efficiency [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant catalytic growth, leading to a substantial increase in industry prosperity [8][17]. - The establishment of a dedicated Commercial Aerospace Administration by the China National Space Administration marks a new phase in the development of commercial aerospace, enhancing stability and transparency in the industry [21]. - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket signifies a breakthrough in China's commercial liquid rocket capabilities, supporting satellite internet and commercial remote sensing needs [10][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 2,915.34 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 2,530.17 billion yuan [2]. Key Developments - The Zhuque-3 rocket's successful launch on December 3, 2025, represents a critical milestone in the commercial aerospace sector, enabling a payload capacity of over 20 tons and reducing launch costs significantly [10][25]. - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) Military Technology Information and Equipment Expo highlights advancements in military technology and the integration of civilian and military sectors [13][26]. Focus Areas - **Aerospace Equipment**: The Civil Aviation Administration is seeking opinions on emergency medical equipment for large aircraft, indicating a focus on enhancing safety standards [11][23]. - **Military Electronics**: Companies such as Gaode Infrared and Tianjian Technology are highlighted as key players in the military electronics sector [19][22]. - **Nuclear Equipment**: China and France are enhancing cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy, focusing on technology innovation and safety [30][32]. Market Performance - The defense and military industry index rose by 2.82% in the past week, outperforming other major indices [33][38]. - The current PE (TTM) for the defense and military industry is 69.3 times, with aerospace equipment at 73.6 times and space equipment at 317.8 times, indicating high investor interest [39][44].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Operations) procurement wave, leveraging its established market presence and expanding into various sectors [2][19]. - The MRO industry in China is entering a significant growth phase, with a projected increase in procurement efficiency and a shift towards centralized and digitalized purchasing [3][42]. - The company has a strong market position in the MRO supply chain for state-owned enterprises, with anticipated revenue growth and margin improvements in the coming years [5][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 410.28 million shares and a market capitalization of approximately 8,135.90 million yuan [1]. - It has established a comprehensive MRO service network, providing over 150,000 SKUs to more than 40,000 industry clients [3][19]. Financial Analysis - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2,928 million yuan in 2023 to 6,590 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25% [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 97 million yuan in 2023 to 464 million yuan by 2027, with significant growth rates in the coming years [2][5]. Industry Perspective - The MRO industry in China is still in its early stages, with a penetration rate below 1%, indicating substantial growth potential as companies seek to reduce costs and improve efficiency [3][42]. - The report highlights that the MRO market in China could reach a procurement scale of approximately 9.2 trillion yuan by 2024, driven by the increasing demand for centralized suppliers [3][42]. Growth Strategy - The company is expanding both horizontally and vertically, aiming to enhance its service offerings and deepen its market penetration in various sectors, including energy and transportation [4][7]. - The strategic focus includes developing high-margin services and products, such as drone technology and integrated solutions, to meet the evolving needs of its clients [4][7].

A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 1 周） 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 何？》2025-08-03 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 06 日 报告摘要 一、A 股： 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场整体上涨，其中创业板指涨幅居前，上涨 1.86%。从风格 指数来看，中盘价值和中盘成长表现突出，分别上涨 2.95%和 2.72%。市场日均成交 额为 1.7 万亿，环比小幅下滑 2.35%。 相关报告 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 【深入剖析】本周市场情绪受到多重因素影响。一方面，国产 GPU 企业摩尔线程科 创板上市首日大涨超 400%，提振了市场对硬科技板块的信心。同时，AI 手机概念持 续火热，相关板块表现活跃，反映出市场对 AI 产业前景的积极 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [4][32]. Core Viewpoints - The frozen food industry is expected to see demand recovery, with product innovation playing a crucial role in overcoming challenges [6][29]. - The revenue from the downstream catering sector is anticipated to maintain a recovery trend in 2026, while profit margins are expected to gradually improve due to cost control and product innovation [6][29]. - The market size of China's frozen food sector is projected to reach 213.1 billion by 2025, up from 168.8 billion at the end of 2022 [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The frozen food industry faced a slowdown in growth during the first three quarters of 2025 due to fluctuations in catering demand and other adverse factors, but signs of recovery were noted in Q4 [6][29]. - The total market value of the industry is approximately 45,795.07 billion [1]. Market Trends - The national catering revenue from January to October 2025 reached 46,188 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [7]. - The chain rate in the catering industry is expected to rise to 25% in 2025, indicating significant room for growth compared to the U.S. and Japan [8]. Product Performance - In the first half of 2025, the frozen food category in supermarkets grew by 5%, contrasting with a decline of 9.5% in the same period last year [9]. - There is a structural shift in the market, with traditional staple categories under pressure while snack categories like pizza and frozen dim sum show strong growth potential [9]. Channel Development - The frozen food companies are actively responding to the demand from large chain supermarkets, leading to an increase in sales through these channels [15]. - New retail channels are also showing significant growth, contributing to the overall performance of the industry [15]. Cost and Profitability - The prices of most food raw materials have decreased, alleviating some cost pressures for frozen food companies, although packaging costs remain high [21]. - The combined revenue growth of key companies in the frozen food sector was 3.0% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable acceleration in Q3 [29]. Company-Specific Insights - Anjiu Foods is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery in catering and the continuous expansion of new customers, leading to a potential increase in profitability [31]. - Qianwei Yangchu is focusing on product innovation and expanding its market presence through both B2B and B2C channels, indicating strong long-term growth potential [31]. - Lihai Foods is actively developing new products and strengthening partnerships with key clients, positioning itself well for future growth in the baking sector [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to seasonal demand increases and supply constraints, despite short-term pressures from low consumption rates in certain regions [7][8]. - The report highlights the potential for coal prices to rise as winter approaches, with increased demand from power plants for stock replenishment [7]. - The introduction of stricter safety regulations is likely to impact coal production rates, further tightening supply [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,360.92 billion [2]. - The circulating market value of the industry is around 18,986.29 billion [2]. 2. Price Tracking - As of December 5, 2025, the average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines is 5.512 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.22% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.53% [8]. - The price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port is reported at 790 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan from the previous week, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.78% [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces reached 5.839 million tons, an increase of 428,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a week-on-week growth of 7.91% [8]. - The report anticipates that as winter progresses, coal demand will increase, particularly in southern regions affected by cold weather [7]. 4. Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, and Jinneng Holding Group, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated rise in coal prices [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with high elasticity in their stock performance, particularly those involved in thermal coal production [7].