Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [6][13]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for railways has been successfully completed, with the national railway operating mileage reaching 165,000 kilometers, a 12.8% increase from the previous five-year plan. High-speed rail has expanded to over 50,400 kilometers, marking a 32.98% growth, establishing the world's largest and most advanced high-speed rail network [3][4]. - During the "14th Five-Year" period, the railway transportation sector has seen significant improvements, with a total of 16.2 billion passengers and 19.6 billion tons of cargo transported, representing growth of 8.7% and 24.1% respectively compared to the previous five-year plan [4]. - The government has set ambitious targets for the future, aiming for a railway network of approximately 200,000 kilometers by 2035, including around 70,000 kilometers of high-speed rail. This long-term goal is expected to create vast market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [5]. Company Summaries - China CNR Corporation: A global leader in rail transit equipment, maintaining the top position in revenue within the industry [5]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A leading provider of rail transit control systems, recognized for its technological expertise [5]. - Times Electric: A prominent supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [5]. - Sifang Railway: A key supplier in the field of high-speed rail comprehensive monitoring, specializing in railway safety assurance [5]. - China High-Speed Railway Technology: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit, serving a wide range of clients including national railways and urban rail systems [5]. - Huifeng Technology: Focused on providing operation and maintenance equipment and integrated solutions for rail transit, with extensive experience in technology development and project implementation [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - The year 2026 is highlighted as a pivotal year for global nuclear energy, transitioning from ambition to action, with small modular reactors (SMRs) emerging as a significant development focus. Numerous SMR projects are underway in the U.S. and Canada, with construction already started at the Darlington site in Canada [3][5]. - The nuclear power sector is witnessing steady progress in various countries, including Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland, as well as advancements in nuclear projects in Egypt and Rwanda. China continues to advance its nuclear power projects, showcasing strong industrial capabilities [3]. - The industry is focusing on financing and supply chain development, with increased participation from private investors. The second World Nuclear Supply Chain Conference will be held in Manila, and the operational launch of the Onkalo deep geological repository in Finland will provide a model for nuclear waste management [4]. Summary by Sections Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) - SMRs are seen as a key solution to meet the growing energy demands of artificial intelligence, attracting ongoing interest from technology giants. Companies like Jingye Intelligent are advancing their SMR technology development, with plans to establish a subsidiary focused on powering AI data centers [5][6]. Industry Events and Collaboration - The year 2026 marks significant anniversaries for the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters, prompting the industry to learn from past experiences and enhance nuclear safety cooperation. Various industry events, including the World Economic Forum and the World Nuclear Fuel Cycle Conference, will facilitate communication with the financial sector and energy users [4]. Investment Opportunities - Several companies are recommended for attention: 1. Jingye Intelligent: Plans to establish an SMR subsidiary focused on AI data center power supply [6]. 2. Jiadian Co.: Leading position in the nuclear power sector with its helium blower product [6]. 3. Guoguang Electric: Key components for the ITER project [6]. 4. Lanshi Heavy Industry: Covers upstream nuclear fuel systems to downstream spent fuel processing [6]. 5. Kexin Electromechanical: Producing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products [6]. 6. Hailu Heavy Industry: Services various reactor types including third and fourth generation reactors [6]. 7. Jiangsu Shentong: Secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade valves in new nuclear power projects [6].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the valuation of convertible bonds does not directly reflect the volatility of the underlying stocks but rather follows the directional changes of the stocks. The market's confidence in the direction of stocks for 2026 remains strong, and the opportunity cost of convertible bonds is expected to be low in the near term [3][4] - The current high valuation of convertible bonds has already factored in significant expected increases in the underlying stocks' prices. The report suggests that the potential for further valuation increases in 2026 may rely more on the recovery of profitability rather than broad-based earnings growth [4][10] - The convertible bond market is expected to exhibit a "dumbbell" structure in 2026, with an increase in the number of new issues and changes in individual bond sizes and industry structures. However, the overall high valuation level may lead to new issues maintaining elevated listing valuations, making secondary market participation less attractive [5][10] Group 2 - The report discusses the construction of a long inflation strategy portfolio, including specific convertible bonds from sectors such as agriculture and electronics, while also preparing a corresponding cash flow strategy portfolio to mitigate potential adverse scenarios [9][10] - The analysis indicates that the high-low price strategy did not yield significant excess returns in 2025, and the report emphasizes the need to maintain a focus on low absolute price screening levels for future selections [6][10] - The report notes that the implied volatility of convertible bonds has recently exceeded the actual volatility of the underlying stocks, indicating a divergence that may reflect market sentiment rather than fundamental value [3][87]

Group 1 - The excess reserve ratio in November remained stable at 1.2%, while government deposits increased to a historical high of 6 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations by 492 billion yuan [2][16][20] - In December, the government deposit is expected to decrease by approximately 1.96 trillion yuan, marking a historical high decline, which will provide liquidity support [3][20][28] - The probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in January has significantly increased, with expectations of a potential release of about 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [8][65][67] Group 2 - In December, the broad fiscal deficit is anticipated to reach a historical high, with a significant decrease in net government debt repayments [3][20][28] - The monetary issuance in December is expected to increase by about 300 billion yuan, while the required reserve ratio may rise by approximately 150 billion yuan [3][20][28] - The average DR001 rate in December dropped to a new low for the year, reflecting a very loose monetary state despite slight fluctuations in DR007 [4][36][45] Group 3 - The liquidity environment is expected to remain stable, with banks' net financing capabilities improving, as evidenced by a historical high in net financing from banks in December [4][37][40] - The anticipated increase in government deposits in January is expected to exert pressure on liquidity, with an expected rise of about 1.66 trillion yuan [8][67][68] - The overall liquidity situation is expected to remain manageable, with the central bank's policies likely to mitigate external pressures [10][45][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned investment company in the United States through its Thai subsidiary, with an investment of up to $36 million for a project in Pennsylvania that will produce 20,000 tons of pulp molded tableware annually [3][4]. - The company is responding to supply chain shifts and trade barriers by expanding its global footprint, particularly in Thailand and the U.S., to mitigate risks associated with trade policies and tariffs [4]. - The Thai base has shown promising financial performance, with revenue of 61.98 million yuan and a net profit margin of 23.2% in the first half of 2025, suggesting that the U.S. project could replicate this success [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.33 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.23 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant increase in net profit from 231 million yuan to 704 million yuan over the same period [6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 302 million yuan in 2025, followed by a substantial recovery to 550 million yuan in 2026 and 704 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 82% and 28% respectively [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.26 yuan in 2023 to 6.89 yuan by 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [6]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leading player in the pulp molded tableware industry, with a robust competitive edge derived from its advanced production capabilities and flexible manufacturing processes [5]. - The establishment of overseas production facilities is seen as a strategic move to enhance market share and adapt to changing global trade dynamics [4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The copper industry is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with a shift in demand driven by electric vehicles and AI investments, leading to an expected increase in copper prices in 2026 [3][85] - The macroeconomic environment is improving with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which may support copper prices [3][30] - Global copper supply is projected to turn into a shortage by 2026, influenced by reduced production forecasts from major mining companies [3][43][60] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - Chinese smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long-term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/pound, indicating a tightening global copper supply-demand balance [3][85] - Approximately 200,000 tons of copper smelting capacity in China has been suspended due to extreme pressure on smelting profits, with current processing fees in negative territory [48][85] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate macroeconomic pressures, potentially boosting investment and consumption [3][30] - The U.S. economy is facing a mid-term election and a change in the Federal Reserve chair, which may lead to a combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies [3][85] Inventory Trends - U.S. copper inventories are expected to continue accumulating due to tariff expectations, while domestic copper social inventories are on a downward trend [3][85] - Global copper inventories remain high, influenced by U.S. market conditions [3][85] Individual Stocks - Key stocks to watch include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shengton, Cangge, Jincheng, and Northern Copper, with H-shares including China Nonferrous Mining and Minmetals [3][86]

证券研究报告|行业深度报告 电力设备与新能源 行业评级 强于大市（维持） 2026年1月6日 电池变革重要赛点，材料设备全新颠覆 ——固态电池深度研究报告 证券分析师： 邓伟 执业证书编号：S0210522050005 游宝来 执业证书编号：S0210523030002 研究助理： 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 李宜琛 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 发展固态电池已成为行业共识、全球竞争赛点：理论上能实现高比能、高安全性的固态电池体系，是全球公认的颠覆性 技术。减少液态电解质含量，提升固态电解质占比，逐步实现固态化，是行业发展共识。由此带来的对材料体系、装备 体系的颠覆，迫使全球企业、研究团队展开新一轮的创新竞争，避免在新技术方向上的掉队风险。2027年实现小批量生 产、工艺定型，基本上是国内外企业一致预期的重要时间节点。 Ø 材料端：固态电池颠覆材料环节，重视增量、升级、瓶颈环节。全固态电池颠覆现有体系，核心增量环节是硫化物/氧化 物/卤化物/聚合物固态电解质，其中降本、量产瓶颈在于硫化锂（成本高、工艺放大难）。此外，能量密度的提升依赖 高镍/富锂锰基正极、锂金属/硅碳负极的性能突 ...

Group 1: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal expansion in 2026 will shift focus from total scale to structural efficiency, emphasizing investment and consumption equally, with a tilt towards residents and livelihood保障[1] - The government is expected to remain the main entity for leveraging in 2026, with monetary policy aligning closely with fiscal efforts to maintain stable interest rates during periods of slower government leverage[2] - The focus of monetary policy will include reducing traditional capacity expansion credit, monitoring bank liability rates, and addressing long-term variables like debt and exchange rate risks[2] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - Broad fiscal expansion is crucial for stabilizing investment, with a focus on new infrastructure and green projects to halt the decline in investment growth[3] - The 2026 target for new local government special bonds is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, significantly higher than other funding sources, making it a key tool for investment stabilization[3] - Subsidy policies will be optimized to enhance consumption, with a focus on both goods and services, aiming to maximize the utility of limited fiscal resources[3] Group 3: Structural Adjustments and Risks - The government aims to address overcapacity and reduce corporate burdens by clearing debts and setting standards to eliminate outdated production capacity[4] - Trade structure adjustments are necessary to mitigate long-term export risks, with a push towards service exports and optimizing supply chain layouts[6] - Risks include potential underperformance of fiscal and monetary policies, unexpected downturns in the real estate market, and a complex external environment[7]

证券研究报告|专题报告 有色金属 行业评级 强大于市 2026年1月5日 供给有约束需求有韧性，铝价中枢或上移 ——铝行业专题报告 证券分析师： 王保庆 执业证书编号：S0210522090001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 供需：供给有约束，需求有韧性。供给端国内面临产能天花板强约束，海外供应受制于能源供应瓶颈，需求端传统板块趋稳 ，新兴领域强劲，储能、机器人及智能制造等新兴领域对铝材的需求快速扩张，电解铝供需紧平衡格局加剧； Ø 宏观：美联储降息预期仍在，宏观经济压制减轻。美联储9月正式开启降息周期，美国26年面临中期选举和美联储主席人事 更替，关注宽货币+宽财政组合可能； Ø 库存：全球电解铝库存处于历史同期低位。截至2025年12月31日，全球电解铝库存145万吨； Ø 总结：紧平衡格局延续，铝价中枢或上移。短期，供需面对铝价底部有支撑，降息预期下预计铝价偏强；中长期，国内天花 板+能源不足持续扰动，同时新能源需求仍保持旺盛，紧平衡或致铝价中枢上移。 Ø 个股：关注天山、宏创、云铝、神火、华通、宏桥及中孚等标的。 Ø 风险提示：美联储降息不及 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to have a strong start in the new year, with a slight decline of 0.33% in the overall A-share market during the last week of December, influenced by the New Year holiday [3][13] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 500 saw slight increases, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext Index experienced declines. The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors showed slight gains, whereas consumer and healthcare sectors faced losses [3][13] - Among the 31 Shenwan industries, oil and petrochemicals, defense and military, and media sectors led the gains, while electric equipment, food and beverage, and public utilities lagged [3][13] Group 2 - The stock-bond yield spread has decreased to 0.5%, indicating a divergence in market valuations, with the valuation dispersion index rising by 1.7% [21] - Market sentiment has improved, with the sentiment index increasing by 25.2% to 59.9, while the industry rotation strength has decreased to 40, indicating a potential warning level [22][28] - The average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect increased by 519 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with significant inflows into the defense, automotive, and home appliance sectors [34] Group 3 - Meta announced the acquisition of Manus, deepening its layout in AI applications, which highlights the strategic value of AI agents in the current market [44] - Upwind New Materials officially entered the humanoid robot sector with the launch of the "Qiyuan Q1," indicating a growing interest in personal robotics [45] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application has been accepted, accelerating the capitalization process in the commercial aerospace sector, which is expected to bring new investment opportunities [46] Group 4 - The report maintains a positive outlook for the market, suggesting that the spring rally may start early, supported by improving overseas liquidity, expectations of renminbi appreciation, and positive industrial trends [48] - It is recommended to focus on opportunities in domestic computing power, as well as in commercial aerospace and intelligent driving sectors, which are expected to benefit from policy support [48]