Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Views - The new housing transaction area has decreased year-on-year, while many regions continue to relax policies to stimulate the market [1] - The report highlights a significant shift in the real estate market dynamics, indicating a potential turning point in policy effectiveness and market stabilization [8] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The real estate sector saw a decline of 1.9% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind A indices decreased by 0.5% and 1.1%, respectively, resulting in excess returns of -1.5% and -0.9% [55] 2. Real Estate Market Conditions - New housing market: In the last week, 36 cities recorded a new housing transaction area of 205.9 million square meters, up 10.0% month-on-month but down 18.5% year-on-year. Cumulatively, from June 1 to June 20, 2025, transactions totaled 527.4 million square meters, down 11.0% year-on-year [13][17] - Second-hand housing market: In 15 cities, the transaction area was 169.5 million square meters, up 1.6% month-on-month and up 1.4% year-on-year. Cumulatively, from June 1 to June 20, 2025, transactions reached 456 million square meters, up 7.0% year-on-year [17] - Inventory and absorption: The cumulative inventory of new homes in 13 cities was 7816.2 million square meters, up 0.3% month-on-month and down 11.6% year-on-year. The absorption cycle for new homes was 20.5 months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 months and a year-on-year decrease of 3.2 months [29] 3. Land Market Conditions - From June 16 to June 22, 2025, the land transaction area in 100 cities was 1571.3 million square meters, down 24.1% month-on-month and down 31.8% year-on-year. The average land price was 1732 RMB per square meter, up 32.0% month-on-month and up 30.0% year-on-year [47] - The cumulative land transaction area for 2025 was 49461.5 million square meters, down 5.2% year-on-year [47] 4. Investment Recommendations - Real estate development: Recommended companies include China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, with a suggestion to pay attention to Greentown China [8] - Property management: Recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, Poly Property, and Yuexiu Service [8] - Real estate brokerage: Recommended company is Beike, with a suggestion to pay attention to I Love My Home [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding," indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in merger and acquisition (M&A) activities, with a total of 78 M&A events reported during the week of June 16-22, excluding one failed event. Among these, 26 were classified as major M&A events, with 11 completed [9][13]. - Recent policy updates from regulatory bodies aim to enhance the M&A environment, including the introduction of simplified review processes and mechanisms for phased payment of shares [7]. - The report notes a growing confidence in the M&A market, with the number of filings for business concentration increasing by 9.9% year-on-year, reflecting a more active market [7]. Section Summaries 1. M&A Activity Overview - During the week of June 16-22, there were 78 M&A events involving listed companies, with 26 classified as major events and 11 completed [9][12]. 2. Policy Updates - Key policy updates include the promotion of phased payment mechanisms and simplified review processes for M&A, aimed at improving the success rate of mergers and enhancing corporate governance [7]. 3. Major M&A Events - A total of 10 major M&A events involved state-owned enterprises as buyers, indicating a trend towards consolidation in key sectors [13]. 4. Failed M&A Events - There was one reported failed M&A event during the week, where a company decided to terminate the transaction due to changing market conditions [16]. 5. Control Changes - Three companies disclosed changes in actual control, with one instance of state-owned capital entering a private enterprise [18]. 6. Market Performance - The restructuring index underperformed compared to the Wind All A index, with a negative excess return of -2.24% during the week [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - In May 2025, the total electricity consumption increased by 4.4% year-on-year, with a total of 809.6 billion kWh consumed [4][6]. - The electricity price in May 2025 saw a year-on-year decrease of 3% but a slight month-on-month increase of 0.4% [40]. - The report highlights significant growth in various sectors, with the first industry showing an 8.4% increase, the second industry at 2.1%, and the third industry at 9.4% [4][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW utility index decreased by 1.13% during the week of June 16-20, 2025, with notable declines in nuclear, water, and thermal power sectors [9][12]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption from January to April 2025 reached 3.16 trillion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [13]. - The growth rates for different sectors were: first industry +10.0%, second industry +2.3%, third industry +6.0%, and urban-rural residential consumption +2.5% [13][14]. 2.2. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation from January to April 2025 was 2.98 trillion kWh, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [22]. - The breakdown of generation by source showed thermal power down by 4.1%, water power up by 2.2%, nuclear power up by 12.7%, wind power up by 10.9%, and solar power up by 19.5% [22]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average grid purchase price in May 2025 was 394 RMB/MWh, down 3% year-on-year [40]. 2.4. Thermal Power - As of June 20, 2025, the price of thermal coal was 609 RMB/ton, a decrease of 29.84% year-on-year [45]. - The cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.46 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [47]. 2.5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 149.15 meters, consistent with previous years, and inflow and outflow rates increased by 19.72% and 63.96% respectively [53]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 new nuclear units were approved, indicating a positive growth trajectory for the sector [22]. 2.7. Renewable Energy - Wind and solar power saw significant increases in installed capacity, with wind power up by 18.5% and solar power up by 74.6% [22]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in hydropower and thermal power during the peak summer season, recommending specific companies such as China Yangtze Power and Huaneng International [4].

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has raised global geopolitical risks, with significant military actions observed since June 13, 2025[2][17] - The potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a broader regional conflict, increasing market volatility[2][17] Group 2: US-China Relations - Despite a temporary easing of tariffs, uncertainties remain in US-China relations, particularly regarding technology and national security issues[1][13] - Trump's fluctuating tariff policies may continue to create instability as he seeks to maintain Republican support ahead of midterm elections[1][13] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market has shifted from a "risk-on" to a "risk-off" phase, with global equity assets reflecting a lack of driving force for recovery since the tariff reversals began on April 7, 2025[3][18] - Following the court's decision on May 28, 2025, the market's positive expectations regarding tariffs have largely been exhausted, indicating a potential shift in asset pricing dynamics[3][18] Group 4: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic real estate data shows a weakening trend compared to Q1 2025, while consumer spending is supported by fiscal measures but lacks sustainability without further subsidies[5][22] - Export growth faces challenges with at least a 10% tariff increase, leading to a weak and slowing overall economic outlook[5][22] Group 5: Capital Flows and Market Behavior - Margin financing balances have remained around 1.8 trillion yuan since April 7, 2025, with institutional positions decreasing from 73.6% to 69.9%[6][31] - Market trading behavior indicates a shift towards structural rotation, with declining turnover rates suggesting weakening market sentiment and potential end to industry rotation[6][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The Middle East situation has led to an increase in gas prices in Europe and the US, while domestic gas prices remain stable [3][8] - The report highlights a supply-demand analysis indicating a slight increase in US gas supply and demand, with significant price fluctuations due to external factors [13][14] - Domestic gas consumption has shown a slight decline, attributed to warmer winter conditions in 2024 [23] Price Tracking - As of June 20, 2025, gas prices have changed as follows: US HH +31.5%, European TTF +9.3%, East Asia JKM +14%, while domestic LNG ex-factory price remains stable [8][9] - The domestic LNG import price averaged 3,698 CNY/ton in May 2025, reflecting a 0.9% increase month-on-month but a 4.7% decrease year-on-year [27] Supply and Demand Analysis - US gas supply increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 1,129 billion cubic feet/day, while total demand rose by 2.3% to 984 billion cubic feet/day [13] - European gas consumption for the first quarter of 2025 was 160 billion cubic meters, up 8.9% year-on-year, but supply decreased by 5.2% week-on-week [14] Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 63% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 CNY/cubic meter [39] - The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in the gas distribution sector [39] Important Events - The US gas import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [44][46] - The European Parliament has agreed to provide more flexibility regarding gas storage targets, allowing a deviation of 10% from the 90% full storage goal [49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy and China Gas [50][51] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, like Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The 2025 618 shopping festival has been extended compared to 2024, with simplified discount rules, leading to strong performance from domestic beauty brands [3][8] - Tmall's overall GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) during the 618 festival is expected to grow by 10% year-on-year, marking the highest quality growth in three years, with total e-commerce sales reaching 855.6 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase [3][9] - The beauty sector on Tmall is projected to see a year-on-year growth of 11.1%, accounting for 41.3% of the overall market [3][9] - Key domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu have secured top positions on Tmall and Douyin, while international brands are also regaining market share [3][9][11] - The pet food segment continues to show high growth, with significant increases in sales for various pet food categories [3][12] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The 2025 618 shopping festival features a more refined promotional timeline, with a focus on simplified discount rules and stable promotional intensity [3][8] Sales Performance - Tmall's beauty sales during the 618 festival are expected to grow by 11.1%, with Proya and Han Shu leading the rankings on Tmall and Douyin respectively [3][9][11] - The overall e-commerce sales during the 618 festival reached 855.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.2% year-on-year growth [3][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with upward momentum and new product catalysts, such as Ruoyu Chen, Shangmei Co., Guibao Pet, and Zhongchong Co., as well as those with attractive valuations like Maogeping, Proya, and Juzibio [3][12] Market Review - The report notes a decline in the retail index by 2.75% for the week of June 16-20, 2025, with a year-to-date decline of 7.89% [13][17] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies, indicating their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings [19]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the IoT module industry, driven by trends in AI, robotics, autonomous driving, and 5G, with expectations for a fundamental recovery in the IoT downstream market [2][3]. Core Insights - The IoT module industry is positioned as the "nervous system" of the Internet of Things, with traditional modules categorized into cellular and non-cellular types, and new classifications emerging for smart and AI-enabled modules, with the latest AI-enabled modules achieving 60 TOPS computing power [2][3]. - The global IoT industry is expected to recover, with a projected 15% CAGR in connections from 2024 to 2030, and China's IoT module market is anticipated to grow at over 6% annually, reaching over 90 billion yuan by 2031 [2][3]. - Domestic manufacturers are gaining a competitive edge, with major players like Quectel, China Mobile, and Guanghetong capturing significant market shares in the cellular IoT module sector [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: IoT Modules as the "Nervous System" - IoT modules serve as a critical link in the IoT ecosystem, facilitating data transmission and communication between devices [10][11]. - The classification of IoT modules includes cellular and non-cellular types, with advancements leading to the development of AI-enabled modules [17][21]. Section 2: Recovery of the IoT Industry - The report highlights a shift from overseas dominance to the rise of domestic manufacturers, with significant market share gains from 2015 to 2019 [27][30]. - The recovery of the global IoT industry is supported by LTE Cat 1 bis and 5G technologies, with a notable increase in enterprise IoT spending expected from 2025 onwards [33][36]. Section 3: Downstream Dynamics - The demand for automotive modules is increasing, driven by the "smart driving equality" trend and the growth of the electric vehicle market in China, with significant year-on-year increases in production and sales [53][56]. - The 5G vehicle communication market is expanding, with 5G and 5G RedCap expected to become mainstream technologies [54][56]. - The report also notes the rapid development of AI applications in toys and glasses, which is driving demand for IoT modules [68][69]. Section 4: Companies Benefiting from AIoT Trends - Key companies such as Quectel, Guanghetong, and Meige Intelligent are highlighted for their robust growth and strategic positioning in the AIoT landscape, with diverse product offerings and strong market presence [4][42]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the increasing integration of AI in IoT applications [4].

Macro Strategy - The Federal Reserve did not lower interest rates in June and removed the judgment of higher unemployment and inflation from its statement, indicating a more stagflationary economic outlook [1][11] - The Fed revised down the US GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 1.7% to 1.4% and raised the unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% [11] - The PCE inflation forecast for Q4 2025 was increased from 2.7% to 3.0%, with core PCE rising from 2.8% to 3.1% [11] Industry Analysis - In April 2025, the domestic installed capacity of new energy increased by 214.7%, with 45.22 GW added, marking the highest monthly increase for solar power in the first half of the year [5][17] - The global solar market is expected to grow, with a forecasted 10% increase in new installations in 2025 under neutral conditions, and up to 30% under optimistic scenarios [17] - The wind power sector is experiencing growth, with a 20% increase in land wind turbine bidding in the first five months of 2025 [17] Company Recommendations - BaiRun Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve revenues of 3.5 billion, 4 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 810 million, 970 million, and 1.18 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [6][19] - YaSheng Pharmaceutical is projected to see rapid revenue growth, with forecasts of 519 million yuan and 3.215 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, also maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Top Cloud Agriculture is expected to benefit from the development of smart agriculture, with projected revenues of 659 million, 875 million, and 1.136 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, receiving a "buy" rating [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the turning point for research services has arrived, with a focus on companies such as Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, Bidai Pharmaceutical, and Baiaosaitu [1] - The A-share pharmaceutical index has seen a decline of 6.3% this week and an increase of 4.6% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.9% and outperforming it by 2.3% respectively [4][9] - The report emphasizes the positive impact of recent policies accelerating the development of innovative drugs, which benefits upstream companies involved in research and production [4][18] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The A-share pharmaceutical index has decreased by 6.3% this week and increased by 4.6% year-to-date, while the H-share biotechnology index has dropped by 8.2% this week but increased by 48% year-to-date [4][9] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector has experienced significant declines, particularly in innovative drugs, with H-shares showing more pronounced drops due to previous high gains [4][9] Research and Development Progress - Recent policies have accelerated the approval processes for innovative drugs, with the FDA reducing NDA approval times from 10-12 months to 1-2 months, and China's CDE shortening IND review times from 60 days to 30 days [18][19] - The report indicates that the demand from the industrial sector is recovering, which will benefit early-stage research suppliers [20] Market Insights - The report suggests focusing on companies that are expected to benefit from the early-stage research demand, mergers and acquisitions, and the commercialization of innovative drugs [19] - Specific companies to watch include Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, Bidai Pharmaceutical, Baiaosaitu, and others in the life sciences service sector [4][19] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a ranking of sub-sectors for investment: innovative drugs > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies > pharmaceutical commerce [11] - It highlights specific companies for investment based on growth potential, low valuations, and high dividend yields, particularly in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the collaboration between Junxin Co. and Changsha Digital Group to promote the integration of waste incineration and green computing, enhancing operational efficiency and revenue growth [8]. - It highlights the trend of decreasing capital expenditures in the waste incineration sector, leading to improved free cash flow and increased dividends [12]. - The report discusses the stable growth and high dividends in the water utility sector, driven by water price reforms that reshape growth and valuation [16]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection sector is experiencing a shift towards maturity, with capital expenditures declining and free cash flow turning positive in 2023, continuing to improve in 2024 [12][13]. - The report notes that the waste incineration sector is adopting new business models, including partnerships with data centers, which enhance profitability and return on equity (ROE) [14]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hai Luo Chuang Ye, Hanlan Environment, and Green Power, among others, based on their strong dividend potential and operational efficiency [4]. - It suggests focusing on companies with high dividend payout ratios and robust cash flow, such as Junxin Co. and Green Power, which are expected to maintain or increase their dividends significantly in 2024 [12][13]. Water Utility Sector - The water utility sector is projected to see stable growth, with a focus on water price reforms that enhance profitability and ensure reasonable returns on investment [18]. - The report highlights specific companies like Yuehai Investment and Xingrong Environment as key players benefiting from these reforms, with expected high dividend yields [18]. Environmental Equipment - The report notes a significant increase in the sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 73% and an increase in market penetration [26][27]. - It emphasizes the importance of transitioning to electric sanitation vehicles as part of the industry's modernization efforts [22]. Biofuel and Lithium Battery Recycling - The report indicates a recovery in the profitability of biodiesel, with prices increasing by 7.1% week-on-week, leading to positive margins [36]. - It also discusses the challenges in lithium battery recycling, with declining metal prices impacting profitability, but notes slight improvements in margins [39][40].