Macro Strategy - The report highlights that China's consumption rate is only 37.2%, significantly lower than the average of 53.8% across 38 countries, indicating a need to improve the income of the middle and low-income groups to boost consumption [1][16][17] - It is noted that the low consumption rate is primarily due to a low consumption propensity, with China's consumption propensity at 62% compared to the average of 92.3% for the 38 countries [1][16] - The report suggests that increasing the tax burden on high-income earners and redistributing the revenue to lower-income groups could potentially increase total consumption by 1.6 trillion yuan, raising the consumption rate by 1.3 percentage points [1][17] Macro Commentary - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at the May FOMC meeting, expressing concerns about economic uncertainty and stagflation risks, which complicates the decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts [2][18] - The commentary indicates that the market's expectation of three interest rate cuts this year may be overly optimistic, with potential upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields [2][18] Industry Insights - The report on the AI and automotive industry emphasizes the growing opportunities for leading third-party autonomous driving suppliers, driven by the demand for equal access to intelligent driving technology and performance validation [6] - It is projected that leading autonomous driving suppliers could capture about 50% of the market share in new car sales, particularly benefiting second and third-tier automakers [6] - The report also discusses the competitive landscape for domestic chip manufacturers, noting that they have made significant progress in performance and production validation, positioning themselves to compete with established players like NVIDIA [6] Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize gradually due to the introduction of incremental policies and a reduction in housing loan interest rates, with a focus on quality developers in core cities [9] - Recommendations include developers like China Resources Land and Yuexiu Property, as well as property management companies such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Greentown Service [9] Construction Materials Industry - The report indicates that public fund holdings in the residential industry chain remain low, with a slight increase in construction and building materials allocations [8] - The concentration of holdings in the construction materials sector has increased, with 27% of stocks in this sector held by public funds [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its R&D efforts to meet the domestic demand wave and is expected to make progress in high-end products [1] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be a loss of 68.27 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase in loss compared to the previous year [7] - The gross margin has improved due to the ramp-up of high-end products and cost optimization, with a gross margin of 40.1% in 2024, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company is focusing on high-end chip delivery and expanding its customer base, with significant progress in high-end flagship chip products for large-scale data centers and cloud services [7] - R&D investment reached 430 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and product development [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to reach 1.35 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 25.04% [1] - The net profit is expected to improve significantly by 2027, reaching 102.34 million yuan, with a staggering growth rate of 1,270.62% [1] - The company's latest closing price corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 20.2 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [1]

Group 1: Consumption Rate Analysis - China's consumption rate is only 37.2%, which is 16.6 percentage points lower than the average of 53.8% across 38 countries[1] - The low consumption rate is primarily due to a low consumption propensity of 62%, compared to the average of 92.3% for the 38 countries[2] - The disposable income of Chinese residents is not low, accounting for 60% of GDP, slightly above the 38-country average of 58.2%[3] Group 2: Income Distribution Factors - China's initial distribution income as a percentage of GDP is 61.4%, lower than the 38-country average of 63.2%, mainly due to low net property income[4] - In 2022, China's net property income was only 3.2% of GDP, compared to 6.2% for the 38-country average[5] - The reliance on interest income (76.2%) over dividend income (10.2%) indicates a lack of diversified property income sources[6] Group 3: Taxation and Redistribution - China's net transfer income as a percentage of GDP was -1.4%, better than the -5.0% average of the 38 countries, indicating a lighter tax burden[7] - The tax burden on residents is low, with personal income and property taxes accounting for only 1.2% of GDP, compared to 8.1% for the 38-country average[8] - Increasing tax burdens to match the 38-country average while enhancing transfer payments could potentially raise consumption by 1.6 trillion yuan and increase the consumption rate by 1.3 percentage points[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on leading third-party intelligent driving suppliers, highlighting their potential to capture approximately 50% of the new car sales market share due to the demand for equal access to intelligent driving technology and performance improvements [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the historical breakthrough opportunities for domestic intelligent driving chips, particularly focusing on the competitive landscape where domestic suppliers are catching up with NVIDIA in terms of product performance and mass production validation [2][30]. - The report discusses the importance of a combined hardware and software approach, noting that Horizon Robotics is currently one of the few suppliers capable of delivering both high-level intelligent driving chips and algorithms, positioning itself strongly within the industry [5][71]. Summary by Sections 1. Positive Outlook on Domestic Intelligent Driving Chips - The report identifies a significant opportunity for domestic intelligent driving chips, driven by the increasing demand for equal access to intelligent driving technology [7]. - It highlights that the competition among car manufacturers is intensifying, leading to a shift towards third-party intelligent driving solutions as a preferred option for second and third-tier car manufacturers [2][19]. 2. Analysis of Horizon Robotics - Horizon Robotics is entering a new cycle of product iteration and business model enhancement, leading the domestic chip suppliers in the rollout of high-level intelligent driving systems [5][81]. - The company’s unique soft-hard integration strategy allows it to optimize performance and cost, making it a key player in the intelligent driving supply chain [5][71]. 3. Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics - The report notes that the intelligent driving market is expected to see a significant increase in penetration rates, with projections indicating that by 2026, urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) will become a standard feature [20][35]. - It discusses the evolving E/E architecture in the electric vehicle era, which provides a foundation for car manufacturers to expand their capabilities beyond traditional supply chain integration [12][16]. 4. Technological Advancements and Innovations - The report highlights the advancements in intelligent driving algorithms, particularly the shift towards a "heavy perception, light map" approach, which has been validated and widely adopted [2][54]. - It also emphasizes the role of reinforcement learning in enhancing intelligent driving models, providing new solutions to complex driving scenarios [56][62]. 5. Cost and Performance Considerations - The report provides insights into the cost structure of intelligent driving chips, indicating that achieving economies of scale and rapid iteration capabilities are crucial for car manufacturers considering in-house chip development [49][50]. - It compares the performance metrics of various intelligent driving solutions, showcasing the competitive positioning of domestic suppliers against established players like NVIDIA [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Insights - The concentration of public fund holdings in the construction and building materials sector has increased, with 27% of the 341 A-shares in the residential industry chain being heavily held by public funds, up from the previous quarter [2] - The total market value of the top five heavily held stocks in the residential industry chain includes Poly Development (3.98 billion), Anhui Conch Cement (2.61 billion), China State Construction (2.52 billion), Honglu Steel Structure (2.44 billion), and Sankeshu (2.31 billion) [3] - The report highlights a slight increase in the allocation of public funds to the building materials sector, with the market value of heavily held stocks in the residential industry chain accounting for 2.03% of the total A-share market, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][14] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Holding Analysis - The market value of heavily held stocks in the residential industry chain remains low, with the building materials sector seeing a slight increase in allocation [14] - The concentration of holdings in the real estate, construction, and building materials sectors has slightly risen, with respective heavy holdings of 29%, 25%, and 27% [2][14] 2. Individual Stock Holdings - The top five stocks by market value in the residential industry chain are Poly Development (3.98 billion), Anhui Conch Cement (2.61 billion), China State Construction (2.52 billion), Honglu Steel Structure (2.44 billion), and Sankeshu (2.31 billion) [3] - The report notes significant changes in individual stock holdings, with the largest increases in holdings for Binjiang Group (+1.88 percentage points) and Sankeshu (+1.09 percentage points) [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Insights - The concentration of public fund holdings in the construction and building materials sector has increased, with 91 out of 341 A-shares being heavily held by public funds, representing 27% of the industry [2] - The total market value of heavily held stocks in the residential industry chain is low, with a slight increase in building materials holdings [6][14] - The report highlights a trend of reduced underweight positions in the construction and building materials sectors, indicating a potential shift in investment strategy [6][14] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Holding Analysis - The market value of heavily held stocks in the residential industry chain accounts for 2.03% of the total A-share market, with a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from the previous quarter [14] - The real estate, construction, and building materials sectors have respective market value shares of 0.87%, 0.54%, and 0.63%, all at relatively low levels historically [14][15] - The report notes that the underweight ratios for these sectors have decreased, with the real estate, construction, and building materials sectors showing respective underweight ratios of -0.45%, -1.37%, and -0.12% [14][15] 2. Individual Stock Holdings - The top five stocks by market value in the residential industry chain are Poly Development (3.98 billion), Conch Cement (2.61 billion), China State Construction (2.52 billion), Honglu Steel Structure (2.44 billion), and Sankeshu (2.31 billion) [3] - The report identifies significant changes in individual stock holdings, with the largest increases in holdings for Binjiang Group (+1.88 percentage points) and Sankeshu (+1.09 percentage points) [3][7] - Conversely, the largest decreases in holdings were noted for Ruilite (-5.03 percentage points) and Zhite New Materials (-4.43 percentage points) [7]

证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20250507 支持稳市场稳预期，中央出台新政策 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 薛路熹 执业证书：S0600123070027 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《指数短期震荡回调，看好北交所长 期配置》 2025-04-27 《中共中央、国务院印发关于实施自 由贸易试验区提升战略建议，支持数 字贸易创新发展》 2025-04-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 资本市场新闻：国务院新闻办公室于 2025 年 5 月 7 日上午 9 时举行新 闻发布会，请 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20250508 5 月港股金股：关税阴霾渐退 2025 年 05 月 08 日 [观点Table_Tag] 3、港股反弹还需增量资金和政策刺激。当前增量资金主要以南向为主，香 港本地资金和海外资金还有增配空间。此外，尽管 5 月 2 日，美元兑港币 汇率触及 7.75 强方兑换保证，仍需继续观察外资流入情况。 ◼ 我们相对看好 AI 科技、内需，同时建议配置部分高股息用作防御： 1、看好 AI 科技：一是，美股科技业绩部分亮眼，一定程度上对全球科技 叙事有所提振；二是，业绩进入真空期，业绩干扰减少，利好主题行情， AI 科技东升仍是重点；三是，港交所和香港证监会推出"科企专线"，进 一步利好科创风偏。 2、考虑配置部分高股息：一是，整体海外风险还在，如果美股科技大跌可 能传导至港股科技；二是，二季度部分港股可能提前派息潮。为避免下半 年可能的在岸人民币压力，部分企业可能提前支付股息。三是，近期港币 流动性有宽松信号，若资金成本继续下降，进一步利好高股息。 3、内需消费仍是全年主线。4 月底政治局会议，明确表示要扩大消费，大 力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济拉 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250508 关税迷雾深，联储降息更难择机——2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评 ◼ 策略启示：市场降息预期过于乐观，美债利率存在进一步上行的风险。 FOMC 声明公布后，市场反应较为平淡；而发布会结束后，美元指数上 涨，降息预期有所回落。截至最新联邦基金期货显示市场预期美联储 7 月降息概率为 82%，全年降息 3.12 次/78bps。对美联储而言，当下货币 政策决策难点既在方向上（滞胀风险让美联储陷入两难，"降也不是， 不降也不是"），也在置信区间上（关税政策与其影响均充满不确定性， 加大对经济前景判断难度）。向前看，除非短期爆发尖锐的流动性或衰 退风险，否则当下通胀更大的上行风险与经济更大的不确定性均意味着 美联储更谨慎的货币政策，目前市场定价的全年 3 次降息仍过于乐观， 美债利率存在上行风险。 ◼ 风险提示：特朗普政策落地节奏与预期相差较大；美联储维持高利率水 平时间过长，引发金融系统流动性危机；通胀下行速率不及预期。 2025 年 05 月 08 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [1]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a demand bottoming out, with opportunities for differentiation in sub-segments [1]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the dairy sector, driven by policy support and supply-side adjustments [33][34]. - The overall industry is facing challenges such as weak demand and increased competition, but cost advantages are improving profitability for leading companies [39][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see an upward cycle as impairment pressures are released, with upstream clearing expected to continue [33]. - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the dairy industry faced significant supply-demand imbalances, with fresh milk prices dropping to levels not seen since 2010 [11][16]. - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu are showing signs of revenue improvement in Q1 2025, benefiting from cost reductions and inventory management [20][28]. 2. Condiments - The condiment sector is characterized by strong resilience among leading companies, with significant cost advantages boosting profitability [39]. - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the condiment industry faced weak demand, but leading companies like Haitian and Zhongju have shown revenue improvements due to internal adjustments [39][52]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that have successfully implemented channel reforms and cost management strategies [49][52]. 3. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with significant differentiation among companies [39]. - The report notes that leading brands like Dongpeng are capitalizing on cost reductions and scale effects to improve profitability [20][39]. - The overall market is expected to see a gradual recovery, with attention on long-term growth potential in specific segments [39]. 4. Health Products - The health product sector is undergoing a transformation driven by new consumer trends, with online brands gaining traction [39]. - Companies like H&H Holdings and Xianle Health are expected to benefit from market recovery and new retail contributions [39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high-quality companies with new consumer genes for investment opportunities [39]. 5. Hong Kong Restaurant Sector - The restaurant sector in Hong Kong is anticipated to recover as consumption stimulus policies take effect [39]. - Companies like Haidilao are focusing on supply chain and cost management to enhance performance [39]. - The report suggests monitoring companies that are expanding their store networks and improving operational efficiency [39].