Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) industry, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.9% from 2025 to 2030 [3][13]. Core Insights - The潮玩 industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with retail sales increasing from 20.7 billion RMB in 2019 to 58.7 billion RMB in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 23.2% [13][18]. - The market is expected to grow from 82.5 billion RMB in 2025 to 213.3 billion RMB by 2030, driven by consumer demand for emotional and cultural connections through products [13][18]. - Key growth segments include搪胶毛绒 (rubber plush toys) and手办 (figurines), with market shares projected to rise significantly by 2030 [15][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Offline Exhibitions Enhance Brand Exposure - The Wonder Festival 2025 showcased over 400 exhibitors and attracted more than 120,000 attendees, highlighting the growing consumer interest in潮玩 [6][9]. - Upcoming exhibitions like the CTE China Toy and潮玩展 are expected to gather over 2,500 exhibitors and 5,400 brands, further promoting the潮玩 industry [9][10]. 2. Market Growth and Projections - The潮玩 industry is projected to reach a retail value of 58.7 billion RMB in 2024, with expectations of continued growth at a CAGR of 20.9% through 2030 [3][13]. - The market is characterized by a relatively fragmented structure, with the top five retailers holding a combined market share of 20.7% [18][19]. 3. Company Developments - The report highlights柏星龙's establishment of龙衍文创 to explore consumer-facing cultural products, with plans to launch innovative products like the second-generation "独眼星球" plush toy in late 2025 [25][26]. - The company is focusing on product-driven sales strategies rather than heavy marketing expenditures, indicating a shift towards leveraging product quality and consumer engagement [25][26]. 4. Market Valuation Trends - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the broader consumer sector on the北交所 has decreased from 57.2X to 56.2X, reflecting market adjustments [40][41]. - The total market capitalization of consumer service companies on the北交所 has seen a decline, indicating potential volatility in the sector [34][37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (from September 28 to October 11), the yield of most credit bonds declined, and the credit spread fluctuated slightly. The issuance volume, repayment volume, and net financing of traditional credit bonds decreased. The net financing of asset - backed securities decreased by 16.1 billion yuan. The issuance rates of AA and AA+ industrial bonds and AA+ and AAA financial bonds rose [1][2]. - Looking forward to October, the logic of loose liquidity persists, but institutional behavior and policy may restrict the performance of the credit bond market. Before the implementation of the redemption fee new rules, the credit allocation strategy should not be too radical. However, the resurgence of Sino - US trade friction may reduce market risk appetite and support the short - term credit long - making logic. It is recommended to allocate short - term bonds as the bottom position, increase the allocation of medium - and long - term credit bonds, and use bond repurchase to increase leverage to enhance portfolio returns [3][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale**: The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was - 112.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 269.9 billion yuan compared with last week. The total issuance volume was 131.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 459.7 billion yuan, and the total repayment volume was 243.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 189.9 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was - 15.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.1 billion yuan. By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all decreased [9]. - **Issuance Cost**: The issuance rates of AA and AA+ industrial bonds returned above 3%, and the issuance rates of AA+ and AAA financial bonds rose above 2%. The increase was mainly due to the high - interest issuance of some bonds [16]. 3.2 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The trading volume of credit bonds decreased by 50.5 billion yuan compared with last week. The turnover rate of most bond types decreased, except for industrial bonds which remained unchanged [17]. - **Yield**: The yields of most credit bonds with different ratings and maturities declined, with the short - end decline greater than the medium - and long - end. By bond type, taking AA+ 5 - year bonds as an example, the yield of urban investment bonds rose, while the yields of other bond types declined [22][23]. - **Credit Spread**: The credit spread of AA commercial trade industry widened significantly, while the credit spreads of AA+ electronics and textile and clothing industries compressed significantly. The credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 3BP. For urban investment bonds, the short - end spread compressed and the long - end spread widened. For industrial bonds, the short - end spread compressed slightly, and the spreads of other maturities widened. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds with maturities below 5 years compressed, while the 10 - year credit spread widened [2][6][24]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Negative News - Six entities had a total of 10 bond implicit ratings downgraded, including Suning.com Group Co., Ltd., Ruikang Pharmaceutical (Shandong) Co., Ltd., etc. The bond "H1 Lvjing 01" issued by Zhengxinglong Real Estate (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. was extended, and the bond "15 Tianan Property Insurance" issued by Tianan Property Insurance Co., Ltd. defaulted [2][36]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 133.04 billion yuan this week. The overnight capital rate remained low. It is recommended to be cautious in credit allocation before the implementation of the redemption fee new rules and adopt a strategy of short - end sinking as the bottom position and increasing the allocation of medium - and long - term credit bonds [39][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The 70th anniversary of the establishment of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region was celebrated, showcasing significant economic achievements. Since its establishment in 1955, Xinjiang's GDP has grown from 1.231 billion to 2.05 trillion in 2024, an increase of over 200 times. The fixed asset investment growth rate in Xinjiang has significantly outpaced the national average, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% in the first eight months of 2025, compared to the national average of 0.5% [2][9] - Transportation infrastructure investment in Xinjiang is experiencing high growth, with plans to complete 80 billion yuan in road traffic investment in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. Key projects include the Urumqi-Weili Highway and the new Tibet Railway, which is expected to start construction in November 2025 [3][12] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is accelerating, with total investment in ongoing and planned projects exceeding 625.5 billion yuan. This includes significant investments in coal-to-olefins and coal-to-natural gas projects, indicating a complete industrial chain development [4][18] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - Xinjiang's fixed asset investment growth is robust, with a 9.1% increase year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, significantly higher than the national average of 0.5% [2][9] - The region's GDP has seen exponential growth, highlighting its economic resilience and investment potential [2][9] 2. Transportation Infrastructure - Xinjiang plans to invest approximately 80 billion yuan in road construction in 2025, with a focus on major projects to enhance connectivity [3][11] - The new Tibet Railway project is set to begin construction in November 2025, with an estimated total investment of 300-350 billion yuan [12][13] 3. Coal Chemical Industry - The total investment in coal chemical projects in Xinjiang exceeds 625.5 billion yuan, with significant contributions from coal-to-olefins and coal-to-natural gas projects [4][18] - The coal chemical sector is expected to form a complete industrial chain, enhancing energy supply and industrial upgrading [4][18] 4. Market Performance - The construction decoration index rose by 2.84% this week, with significant gains in infrastructure and chemical engineering sectors [6][25] - Notable stock performances include Xinjiang Jiaojian (+20.97%) and Beixin Road and Bridge (+13.71%) [6][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery sector is resilient, and the "anti-involution" trend is driving up express delivery prices, releasing profit elasticity for companies. Long-term positive competition opportunities are expected in the e-commerce express delivery sector. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are likely to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, with potential for both performance and valuation increases [13] - In the shipping sector, the outlook for crude oil transportation is favorable due to the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may enhance VLCC freight rate elasticity. The shipping market is expected to improve significantly in Q4 2025, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [13] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green renewal cycle, with shipping market conditions and green renewal progress being the core demand drivers. Despite a decline in new ship orders, shipyards remain busy. Factors constraining new ship market activities are expected to ease or improve, suggesting a potential profit realization period for shipbuilding companies [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant increase in business volume, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3% in the number of packages delivered [24] - Major companies like YTO Express and SF Express are showing strong growth in business volume, with SF Express achieving a remarkable 34.8% year-on-year increase [26] Shipping - The current week saw a slight increase in the Clarkson comprehensive freight rate to $28,977 per day, while the BDI index decreased by 4.3% to 1,941 points [44] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) decreased by 2.5% to 1,084 points, indicating a slight downturn in the market [44] Aviation - In August 2025, global air passenger demand grew by 4.6%, with a load factor of 86.0%, marking a historical high for the month [10] - The overall passenger transport volume for civil aviation reached approximately 75 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [55] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing a positive trend, with companies like Debon Logistics and Aneng Logistics showing significant improvements in profitability due to strategic transformations and ecosystem optimizations [15] Ports - The total cargo throughput at Chinese ports reached 272.175 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 4.69% [71] - Container throughput also saw an increase of 8.84%, indicating a robust performance in the port sector [71]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][5] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent drop in copper and aluminum prices is a short-term liquidity shock due to renewed U.S. tariff threats, but the long-term upward trend for copper remains intact [5] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight to shortage due to frequent supply disruptions and the U.S. entering a monetary easing cycle [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper among others for potential investment opportunities [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, which has raised market risk aversion [9] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.44% compared to the index's 0.37% [11][12] - The report notes that copper, magnetic materials, and rare earths performed well, while copper materials and cobalt lagged behind [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 27.81, with a weekly change of 2.98 [21] - The PB for the sector is 3.33, reflecting a change of 0.36 [21] 4. Copper - London copper prices increased by 1.89%, while Shanghai copper prices rose by 3.37% [26] - The report indicates that copper smelting margins are negative, with a loss of 2738 yuan/ton [26] 5. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 3.09%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.61% [38] - The report notes that aluminum smelting margins improved to 5133 yuan/ton [38] 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices remained stable at 73550 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene prices fell by 2.21% to 839 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium smelting margins are negative, with losses reported [74] 7. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt increased by 4.19% to 19.90 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices rose by 2.87% to 359000 yuan/ton [87] - The report highlights that cobalt supply may tighten due to new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [87]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The release of the "14th Five-Year" Energy Planning Management Measures emphasizes compliance and economic viability in energy projects, with stricter controls on project inclusion in energy planning [2][7] - The new measures aim to enhance the systematic, authoritative, scientific, and adaptive nature of energy planning, with a focus on mid-term and summary evaluations [7][9] - The market sentiment towards new energy development has been pessimistic due to the negative impact of market transactions on investment returns, but the 2035 development goals announced by President Xi Jinping have provided reassurance [3][10] - The government is addressing irrational competition in the energy sector, particularly in coal and photovoltaic industries, to stabilize prices and promote the exit of inefficient capacities [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Energy Planning Management Measures - The new management measures replace the previous version and are effective for five years, focusing on high-quality energy development [7] - The measures restrict provincial energy planning from including projects not approved at the national level, ensuring a more rigorous planning process [8][9] 2. Market Dynamics and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stocks with third-quarter performance catalysts, highlighting long-term investments in quality hydropower and undervalued wind power companies [12][13] - Short to medium-term recommendations include companies with strong asset quality and management capabilities, as well as regional stocks with lower downside risk [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that supply disruptions in Indonesia have driven tin prices higher, while the rare earth industry has introduced export control announcements [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation timeline for total rare earth control, quotas, and overseas rare earth industry catalysts [3] - The report suggests that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is in a high prosperity phase, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly [6] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price movements include a 0.89% decrease in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 557,500 CNY/ton, a 0.62% increase in dysprosium oxide to 1,620,000 CNY/ton, and a 0.35% decrease in terbium oxide to 7,025,000 CNY/ton [12][11] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has announced export controls on certain rare earth items and technologies, targeting illegal export behaviors [3][4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices have decreased by 1.13% to 4,375 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices have decreased by 0.90% to 276,000 CNY/ton [23][11] - Demand for molybdenum iron is increasing due to steel procurement, but there are signs of supply contraction [3] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices have decreased by 0.74% to 268,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices have decreased by 0.89% to 391,500 CNY/ton [28][11] - The report notes stable domestic demand with a focus on essential purchases [3] Tin - SHFE tin prices have increased by 4.48% to 286,400 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices have increased by 5.95% to 36,500 USD/ton [33][11] - Supply is tight due to low operating rates in Yunnan's refining enterprises, while demand remains cautious [3] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices have decreased by 2.90% to 167,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices have decreased by 1.97% to 149,500 CNY/ton [42][11] - The report anticipates a potential recovery in export demand starting in October [3] Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is experiencing continuous technological breakthroughs and commercial project implementations, indicating a high growth phase for upstream materials [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) has fully entered the "920 new code" era, which is expected to further solidify its independent status as China's third-largest stock exchange [3][8] - The transition to the 920 code is seen as a significant milestone in the development of the BSE, addressing the confusion caused by multiple existing code segments and enhancing stock identification [3][8] - The report emphasizes the ongoing implementation of the "Deep Reform 19 Articles" strategy, indicating continuous policy support for the high-quality development of the BSE, with expectations for new products like specialized index funds and ETFs [3][8] Group 2 - The report notes that the BSE's market may experience short-term volatility due to fluctuating tariff policies and overall market conditions, but it encourages a focus on long-term investment opportunities [3][12] - It identifies several key investment themes, including companies with stable long-term performance, those with upcoming quarterly reports, and sectors related to self-sufficiency and domestic consumption [3][12][29] - The report mentions that the overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for BSE A-shares remains at 50X, with daily trading volume recovering to 193 billion [14][15] Group 3 - The report states that one new company, Aomeisen, was listed on the BSE during the week, bringing the total number of new listings since January 1, 2024, to 39 [22][23] - It highlights the average issuance PE ratio of 13.95X for the newly listed companies, with an average first-day price fluctuation of 243% [26][29] - The report also notes the registration status of one company and the submission of registration for another, indicating ongoing activity in the IPO pipeline [29][30]

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that short-end sinking strategies have outperformed in September 2025, with various credit strategies yielding positive returns due to sufficient coupon income covering capital loss, although the contribution to overall returns was limited [2][3][4] - Historical performance of credit strategies in October since 2021 shows that most strategies have achieved positive returns, with a notable success rate for bullish credit positions in October [10][24] - The report suggests that in the current steep yield curve environment, increasing allocation to medium and long-term credit bonds and utilizing bond repurchase agreements to introduce leverage could significantly enhance the returns of the strategies [10][24] Group 2 - In September 2025, the market was cautious due to concerns over new public fund sales regulations, leading to a tightening of credit bond market sentiment [3][4] - The report highlights that the performance of various credit strategies in September was negatively impacted by rising interest rates, with some strategies recording capital losses exceeding 1% [3][4][5] - The anticipated liquidity support from the central bank's operations in October 2025 is expected to bolster the bullish logic for credit investments, despite potential constraints from institutional behavior and policy impacts [17][24]

Issuance and Market Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, a total of 15 companies completed their IPOs, raising 4.9 billion yuan, surpassing the total fundraising of 2024[2] - In September, three companies went public, raising 0.92 billion yuan, maintaining an accelerated IPO pace[2] - The average first-day increase for newly listed companies in September was 397%, with the average for Q3 2025 at 339%[2][24] Subscription Trends - The average subscription amount for September reached a record high of 724.8 billion yuan, with the average for Q3 at 130.7 million yuan, significantly higher than the previous quarter's 91.8 million yuan[2][27] - The average subscription amount for the first nine months of 2025 was 607.9 billion yuan, a substantial increase from 36.9 billion yuan in 2023 and 212.9 billion yuan in 2024[27] - The average expected return for top-tier subscriptions in September was 46,000 yuan, with an overall expected return of 340,000 yuan for the first nine months[31] Company Quality and Financial Metrics - The average revenue for newly listed companies in 2024 was 0.89 billion yuan, with an average net profit of 0.13 billion yuan, indicating a significant improvement in financial metrics compared to previous years[35] - The average gross margin for newly listed companies in 2024 was 28%, reflecting an upward trend in company quality[35] Market Dynamics and Risks - The online subscription success rate has decreased to an average of 0.044% in the first nine months of 2025, indicating increasing competition for new shares[27] - Risks include potential changes in IPO review policies and market enthusiasm for new listings[2]