Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are recommended to be bought on dips in the medium to long term; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; Rebar is for range trading; Glass is recommended to be sold on rallies [1][8][10]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, tin, and gold are for range trading; Aluminum is advised to be observed more closely; Nickel is recommended to be observed or sold on rallies; Silver is suggested to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions; Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [1][11][12][18]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; Caustic soda and soda ash are advised to be observed temporarily; Polyolefins are expected to be in a relatively weak oscillation [1][19][22][25]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation; PTA is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner; Apples and jujubes are expected to be in a relatively weak oscillation [1][29][30][31]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: For live pigs, short - term contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies, and long - term contracts should be bullish with caution; Eggs are expected to have limited upside; Corn is advised to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term and hedged on rallies by grain holders; For soybean meal, short - term contracts are to be treated strongly on dips, and long - term contracts are to be treated weakly; Oils are recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [1][31][33][36]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the impact of factors such as international political situations, central bank policies, and industry supply - demand changes on different futures markets, and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][5][8]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as the Fed Chair competition, central bank policies, and international political situations, the market's main line rotates quickly. After the recent support from both positive and negative meetings ends, index futures are expected to trade in a range. In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Considering factors like the capital market meeting and the upcoming release of the loan prime rate, if the ultra - long - term yield does not reach a new high and the capital rate remains stable, the short - and medium - term rates may stabilize. Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal support. With high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand from downstream steel mills, and potential support from domestic coal mine production cuts and cost lines, short - term trading is recommended, mainly using range - right - side trading [8]. - **Rebar**: After the important meetings, the market enters a policy vacuum period. Although there is a weakening expectation for steel exports, the current supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Steel prices have limited upside and downside, and range trading is recommended [8]. - **Glass**: With factors such as the increase in raw material prices, weak demand from downstream processing plants, and the failure of the expected cold - repair of production capacity, the glass market is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies, and the near - term contracts are expected to continue to weaken [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global copper concentrate supply is still tight, but factors such as year - end capital shortages and high copper prices suppressing spot purchases limit the upside. Copper prices are expected to trade in a high - level range, with the main contract of Shanghai copper expected to trade between 89,500 - 95,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: With the increase in production capacity, the entry into the demand off - season, and the high - level volatility of aluminum prices suppressing demand, it is recommended to reduce long positions or observe [12]. - **Nickel**: Due to the possible loosening of nickel ore supply and the surplus pattern of refined nickel, it is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: With the tight supply of tin ore and the weak consumption of downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaics, tin prices are expected to continue to be in a relatively strong oscillation [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to factors such as the increase in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the medium - term price centers of silver and gold are expected to rise. For silver, hold long positions and be cautious about new positions; for gold, use range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and the continuation of the de - stocking trend, and considering the risks of mining certificates in Yichun, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high开工, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to macro data, policies, and cost factors [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high inventory and the possible impact of alumina production cuts, it is recommended to observe temporarily and pay attention to the procurement volume of downstream industries and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [21]. - **Styrene**: Due to factors such as the accumulation of US gasoline inventory and the reduction of pure benzene demand, and the limited rebound space after the increase in factory load, styrene is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [22]. - **Rubber**: With the high price of overseas raw materials and the large accumulation of domestic inventory, rubber prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the operating rate of tire enterprises [23]. - **Urea**: With the increase in maintenance devices and the decrease in daily output, but still high in the long - term, and the weakening of agricultural demand and the increase in supply pressure in the long - term, urea prices are expected to be in a weak oscillation [24]. - **Methanol**: With the recovery of domestic supply, the high - level and narrow - range fluctuation of the downstream methanol - to - olefins operating rate, and the weak traditional demand, the inventory of enterprises and ports shows different trends. Attention should be paid to the impact of the situation in Iran on methanol prices [25]. - **Polyolefins**: With the weakening of PE demand and the relatively stable PP supply and demand, polyolefins are expected to be in a weak oscillation. The PE main contract is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and the PP main contract is expected to trade in a range [25][26]. - **Soda Ash**: With the oversupply situation and the increase in production costs, and the mitigation of the supply - demand contradiction after the reduction of supply, it is recommended to observe temporarily [27]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With the stable consumption of new cotton and the policy expectation of the planting area in Xinjiang, the prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [29]. - **PTA**: Due to the uncertainty of the international oil situation and the OPEC+ production - suspension decision, the price of PTA has increased. With the continuation of de - stocking, PTA is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner, and the short - term range of 4,600 - 4,900 yuan/ton should be focused on [29][30]. - **Apples and Jujubes**: With the stable price of stored apples and the slow progress of jujube acquisition and the slight loosening of prices, both are expected to be in a weak oscillation [30][31]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the demand is boosted by the winter solstice pickling, but the supply pressure is still high. In the long term, although the production capacity is being reduced, it is still above the equilibrium level. Short - term contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies, and long - term contracts should be bullish with caution [31][33]. - **Eggs**: Currently, the supply is sufficient, but the supply pressure is gradually weakening. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait for rallies to hedge for short - term contracts, and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and external policies [33][34]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price may be under pressure due to the increase in grain sales. In the long term, although the cost support is strong, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and the upside is limited. Grain holders can hedge on rallies [35]. - **Soybean Meal**: The near - term contracts are supported by cost and de - stocking expectations, while the long - term contracts are affected by the expected high yield in South America and cost reduction. Range trading is recommended, and spot enterprises can fix prices on dips [36]. - **Oils**: Due to factors such as the poor demand for US soybeans, the expected high yield in South America, and the improvement of the domestic supply situation, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [36][37][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton textile industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] Core Viewpoints - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating bullish in the near term due to a balanced supply - demand pattern and potential changes in Xinjiang's cotton planting policy in the new year. The spot market for Xinjiang cotton is strong, and yarn - end procurement is proceeding as usual [6]. - The cotton yarn market is under pressure, with many inland textile enterprises facing cash - flow losses. The industry needs to continue monitoring the trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures and downstream restocking [6]. Section Summaries 01. Weekly Summary - Cotton: Futures and spot prices are oscillating upwards. The supply - demand pattern shows both supply and demand increasing, with no prominent contradictions. There are expectations of significant changes in Xinjiang's cotton planting policy, which may reduce output. The Xinjiang cotton spot market is strong, and yarn - end procurement is steady. Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating bullish [6]. - Cotton Yarn: Many inland textile enterprises face cash - flow losses. Although Xinjiang's textile enterprises maintain high operating loads, the industry as a whole is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures and downstream restocking [6]. 02. Market Review - Cotton: The domestic cotton market has limited changes. Supply pressure is not significant, and the demand for cotton raw materials from spinning enterprises is resilient. The upper half of the week saw good procurement, which weakened in the lower half. Spot prices rose, and the basis of some high - basis contracts was adjusted downwards [9]. - Cotton Yarn: The overall trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is weak, with few new orders. Prices are temporarily stable after the previous increase, but most downstream customers are reluctant to accept the price hikes. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintain high operating rates, while inland ones continue to decline [9]. 03. International Macroeconomics - The report presents a series of economic data from the US and the Eurozone, including manufacturing PMI, employment, GDP, CPI, and interest rates, which can impact the cotton market through currency exchange rates and global economic demand [11]. 04. Domestic Macroeconomics - Key domestic economic data such as foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing scale, and fixed - asset investment are provided, which can influence the domestic cotton textile industry [13]. 05. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's December report, the global cotton output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both adjusted downwards, while the ending inventory increases slightly due to an increase in the beginning inventory. The main adjustment is in the US, while other countries' production and consumption data remain relatively stable [16]. - In China, the total supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 260,000 tons to 1.504 million tons, mainly due to an increase in production. The total demand is expected to increase by 130,000 tons to 858,000 tons, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory by 130,000 tons to 646,000 tons [20]. 07. US Cotton Exports - As of November 20, 2025, the US has cumulatively signed contracts to export 1.306 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, reaching 49.16% of the expected annual export volume, and has shipped 520,000 tons, with a shipping rate of 39.80%. China has signed contracts to import 39,000 tons, accounting for 2.98% of the signed volume, and has shipped 15,000 tons [23]. 08. Industrial and Commercial Inventories Start to Increase - As of the end of November, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises increased steadily, reaching 939,600 tons. The commercial inventory of cotton in China reached 4.6836 million tons, a significant increase from the previous month and slightly higher than the same period last year [26]. 09. November Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports Both Increase - In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a 34.4% increase from the previous month and a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. Cotton yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a 25% increase from the same period last year and a 7.14% increase from the previous month [29]. 10. November Cotton Yarn Production Increases Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month - In November, the sales of pure - cotton yarn were relatively good in the first half but weakened in the second half. The comprehensive operating rate of pure - cotton spinning enterprises was stable. The estimated output of pure - cotton yarn in November was 493,000 tons, a 12.9% increase from the same period last year and a 3.7% increase from the previous month [30]. 11. US Cotton Growth - As of September 28, the boll - opening rate of US cotton was 67%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The harvest rate was 16%, the same as the five - year average but 3 percentage points slower than last year. The good - quality rate was 47%, 16 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [36]. 12. US Cotton Weather - As of the week of November 15, 2025, the average temperature and precipitation in the US cotton - growing areas and Texas were significantly lower than the previous year. Since the harvest is in the middle - to - late stage, the dry weather has limited impact [40]. 13. Xinjiang Cotton Inspection - As of December 18, 2025, 1,083 cotton processing enterprises in China have processed and inspected 25,039,991 bales of cotton, weighing 5.6524 million tons [42]. 14. Textile Industry Inventory - In October, the inventory of the textile industry was 406.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 billion yuan and a year - on - year increase of 38 billion yuan. The inventory of textile products was 218 billion yuan, with corresponding increases of 6 billion and 16 billion yuan. The inventory of textile and clothing decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. 15. Domestic Demand Remains Strong - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.3898 trillion yuan, a 1.3% year - on - year increase. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase [50]. 16. External Demand Exports Weaken - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a 5.12% year - on - year decrease. Textile exports increased by 1.03% year - on - year, while clothing exports decreased by 10.86% year - on - year [53]. 17. US Clothing and Apparel Retail Sales in September 2025 - In September 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales (seasonally adjusted) were 27.043 billion US dollars, a 6.65% year - on - year increase but a 0.72% month - on - month decrease. Retailer inventories decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio also declined [58]. 18. US Textile and Apparel Imports in September 2025 - In September 2025, US textile and clothing imports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month in terms of volume, while the import amount decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Cotton product imports showed a slight decrease in volume year - on - year but an increase in amount month - on - month [62]. 19. Warehouse Receipts Continue to Decrease - As of December 18, the number of warehouse receipts was 3,619, with 3,924 valid forecasts, a total of 7,543, an increase of 612 from the previous week [64]. 20. Non - Commercial Long Positions Decrease - As of December 2, the net long positions of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market increased by 2,444, and the net long positions of non - commercial futures alone increased by 2,707. The net long positions of commodity index funds decreased by 479 [68]. 21. Load Changes - As of December 19, the load index of pure - cotton spinning mills, human - made cotton yarn mills, and pure - polyester yarn mills all decreased, indicating a weakening trend in the yarn and fabric loads [71]. 22. Industrial Chain Inventory - Textile enterprises' cotton inventory increased by 0.9 days compared to last week, cotton yarn inventory remained flat, and the inventory of pure - cotton grey fabric increased by 0.5 days. Inventory is starting to accumulate as the consumption season enters a slow period [74]. 23. Industrial Chain Profit - This week, the sales situation in Xinjiang and inland areas differed significantly. Xinjiang's spinning enterprises had better sales, while inland ones slowed down. The narrowing of the cotton - yarn price spread due to the increase in Zhengzhou cotton futures has put pressure on spinning enterprises, leading to a decrease in the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises [79].

长江期货鲜果周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-12-19 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 震荡偏弱 目 录 01 苹果：震荡偏弱 02 红枣：震荡偏弱 01 苹果：震荡偏弱 01 周度观点 1 整体观点：本周晚富士苹果产区成交氛围依旧维持清淡态势，客商对果农货调货积极性下降，多包装前期订购货源及 自存货源发货为主，果农货源多以低价货源走货居多。价格来看，好货维持稳定，价格表现坚挺，果农一般及以下质 量统货价格出现松动。销区市场走货仍显清，同比去年同期走货量有所减少，砂糖橘及其他柑橘类水果对苹果销售形 成冲击。销区市场仍处淡季，交易氛围仍显清淡，柑橘类水果上市量增加，挤压苹果销售空间。（数据来源：上海钢 联） 2 风险因素：市场消费情况、宏观政策因素 Ø 本周苹果主力震荡偏弱。 Ø 苹果基差-34元，较上周+479。 03 苹果批发市场价格走势 02 行情回顾 数据来源：博易大师、IFIND、上海钢联、中果网、长江期货 数据来源：IFIND、上海钢联、中果网、长江期货 Ø 截止2025年12月12日，全 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short-term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; sell on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - Non-ferrous metals: Reduce positions on rallies for copper and replenish on low-level stabilization; strengthen observation for aluminum; observe or sell on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold; hold long positions for silver and be cautious about new positions; expect lithium carbonate to trade with a strong bias [1][11][12][18][19] - Energy and chemicals: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; expect polyolefins to trade with a weak bias; temporarily observe caustic soda and soda ash [1][21][22][23][25][26][28] - Cotton textile industry chain: Bullish with a bias for cotton and cotton yarn; expect PTA to rise in a range; bearish with a bias for apples and jujubes [1][30][31][32] - Agricultural and livestock products: Short-term short-selling on rallies for near-term contracts of live pigs and cautious bullishness for far-term contracts; expect eggs to trade in a range; be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and hedge on rallies for grain holders; range trading for soybean meal, with a bullish bias for near-term contracts and a bearish bias for far-term contracts; be cautious about short-selling for oils and fats [1][34][35][36][37] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy impacts. It emphasizes the importance of risk management and the need for investors to make decisions based on their own investment goals and risk tolerance [1][5][8][9][11][12][18][19][21][22][23][25][26][28][30][31][32][34][35][36][37] Summary by Industry Macro-finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips, as US inflation has slowed more than expected [5] - Government bonds are expected to trade in a range, with short - term rates potentially stabilizing if long - term yields do not reach new highs and funding rates remain stable [5] Black building materials - Coking coal market is in a tug - of - war between strong bearish factors and weak bullish factors, with short - term trading recommended [8] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range, with low valuation and weak driving forces, and a weak downward trend [9] - Glass is expected to trade weakly, with a strategy of selling on rallies due to high inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper is expected to trade in a high - level range, with a strategy of reducing positions on rallies and replenishing on low - level stabilization, due to short - term overheating and potential technical adjustments [11] - Aluminum is expected to rebound, but investors are advised to strengthen observation due to factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand [12] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of observing or selling on rallies, as the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to be in surplus [16] - Tin is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of range trading, considering factors such as supply tightness and potential demand recovery [17][18] - Silver and gold are expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of holding long positions for silver and range trading for gold, as the medium - term price centers are expected to rise [18] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a strong bias, with attention paid to supply disruptions and demand trends [19] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to trade in a low - level range, with weak fundamentals but potential support from low valuation and policy or cost changes [19][21] - Caustic soda is expected to trade in a low - level range, with investors advised to temporarily observe due to high inventory and potential impacts from alumina production [21] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range, with a focus on changes in pure benzene prices and crude oil pricing [22][23] - Rubber is expected to trade in a wide - range, with support from supply disruptions but limited upside due to high inventory and weak demand [23][24] - Urea is expected to trade in a range, with a relatively stable supply - demand pattern [24][25] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range, with supply recovery, high - level but slightly declining downstream demand, and inventory reduction [26] - Polyolefins are expected to trade with a weak bias, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [26][27] - Soda ash investors are advised to temporarily observe, as the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated after supply contraction and there is cost support [28] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a strong bias, as recent domestic cotton sales are fast and yarn prices are firm [30] - PTA is expected to rise in a range, driven by rising crude oil prices and supply - demand inventory reduction [30][31] - Apples and jujubes are expected to trade with a weak bias, with slow inventory sales [31][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Live pigs are expected to form a bottom in a range, with short - term supply pressure and long - term potential for price recovery after capacity reduction [32][34] - Eggs are expected to trade in a range, with short - term stability, medium - term improvement in supply - demand balance, and long - term supply pressure [34][35][36] - Corn is expected to trade with a weak bias, with short - term selling pressure and long - term support from demand recovery but limited upside [36] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range, with a bullish bias for near - term contracts and a bearish bias for far - term contracts [37] - Oils and fats are expected to have intensified corrections, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [37][38][39][40][41][42]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1][5]. - Black building materials: Coking coal is recommended for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is advised to short on rallies [1][7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and replenish after stabilizing at low levels; aluminum is suggested to strengthen observation; nickel is advised to observe or short on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly [1][10][12]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly [1][19][21]. - Cotton and textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate strongly; PTA is expected to rise in an oscillating manner; apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][27][29]. - Agricultural and livestock: Pigs are recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; eggs' price increase is limited; corn is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal is for range trading, with near - month contracts treated strongly on dips and far - month contracts treated weakly; oils are advised to be cautious about short - chasing [1][31][36]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product, such as policy, inventory, production, and consumption, and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][5][7]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - finance - **Index futures**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. With the U.S. employment and retail sales data fluctuating, and the market's main line rotating quickly, the index futures may oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Treasury bonds**: They are expected to oscillate. If the ultra - long - term yield does not reach a new high and the capital interest rate remains stable and low, the medium - and short - term interest rates may ease. Attention should be paid to the possible large fluctuations in the liability side of broad - based funds at the end of the year [5]. Black building materials - **Coking coal**: The market is in a game between strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. The short - term operation is mainly range trading on the right side [7]. - **Rebar**: It has low valuation and weak driving force. After the important meetings, the boost to the market is limited. With the decline in steel production and demand and the smooth inventory reduction, the steel price may oscillate weakly [7]. - **Glass**: The end - of - year inventory is high, the demand is weak, and the supply is increasing. The price is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to short on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high but faces a callback risk. The macro - loose expectation and long - term shortage of ore support the price center, but the short - term over - rise suppresses consumption. It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and replenish after stabilizing at low levels [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuates greatly at a high level. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to strengthen observation or reduce long positions [12]. - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be loose in the long term, and the market is in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to observe or short on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading, and attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand [16]. - **Silver and gold**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion, the prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions for silver and conduct range trading for gold [17]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of mine certificates and the resumption of lithium mines [19]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and the export growth is uncertain. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [19]. - **Caustic soda**: The inventory is high, and the profit of the main downstream is compressed. The supply is high in winter. It is recommended to observe temporarily [21]. - **Styrene**: The overseas market is weak, and the port inventory is decreasing. The factory's profit recovery limits the rebound space. It is expected to oscillate [21]. - **Rubber**: The overseas raw material price is high, but the domestic inventory is large. The tire production capacity utilization rate is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [22]. - **Urea**: The supply is sufficient, the agricultural demand is weak, and the industrial demand is supported. The inventory is relatively stable. It is recommended for range trading [23]. - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, the demand of methanol - to - olefins is high, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to repair upwards [25]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, but the upward pressure is large. PE is expected to oscillate in a range, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - **Soda ash**: The supply is in excess, and the cost rises. The supply contraction eases the contradiction. It is recommended to observe temporarily [27]. Cotton and textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Although the global supply - demand data is loose, the domestic cotton sales are fast, and the yarn price is strong. They are expected to oscillate strongly [29]. - **PTA**: Affected by geopolitics and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the crude oil price rises, and the PTA supply - demand is in a de - stocking state. It is expected to rise in an oscillating manner [29][30]. - **Apples and jujubes**: The apple inventory sales are general, and the jujube acquisition is coming to an end. Both are expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. Agricultural and livestock - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is large, and the price oscillates narrowly. In the long term, the capacity is being reduced, but it is still above the equilibrium level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - month contracts [31][33]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the price lacks driving force. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for short - term, and pay attention to the elimination and external variables [33][34]. - **Corn**: In the short term, there is selling pressure, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies. In the long term, the demand recovers, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and the increase is limited [35]. - **Soybean meal**: The external market is weak, and the domestic near - month contracts are strong. It is recommended for range trading, with near - month contracts treated strongly on dips and far - month contracts treated weakly [36]. - **Oils**: The short - term market is affected by multiple negative factors and is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [36][43].

| 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,824.81 | -1.11% | | 深圳成指 | 12,914.67 | -1.51% | | 沪深 300 | 4,497.55 | -1.20% | | 上证 50 | 2,954.79 | -1.08% | | 中证 500 | 7,001.32 | -1.58% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 49,383.29 | -1.56% | | 道琼指数 | 48,114.26 | -0.62% | | 标普 500 | 6,800.26 | -0.24% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,111.46 | 0.23% | | 美元指数 | 98.2199 | -0.06% | | 人民币 | 7.0425 | -0.11% | | 纽约黄金 | 4,332.20 | -0.05% | | WTI 原油 | 55.27 | -2.73% | | LME 铜 | 11,619.00 | -0.57% | | LME 铝 | 2,882.50 | 0.26% | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Stocks are expected to have a medium - to long - term upward trend, with a short - term outlook of volatile operation; bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper should be reduced on rallies and replenished when the price stabilizes at a low level; aluminum requires more observation; nickel is recommended to be observed or shorted on rallies; tin is for range trading; silver should be held in long positions with caution in opening new positions; gold is for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement [1][10][12][17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, and soda ash are recommended for temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [1][21][22][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement; PTA is expected to move upward in a volatile manner; apples and jujubes are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [1][30][32][33]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be shorted on rallies for near - term contracts and bullish cautiously for far - term contracts; eggs have limited upside potential; corn should be chased with caution in the short term and hedged on rallies; soybean meal is for range trading, with a stronger view for near - term contracts and a weaker view for far - term contracts; oils are recommended to be shorted with caution [1][34][37][40]. Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external factors. For example, the macro - financial market is affected by central bank policies and economic data; the black building materials market is affected by supply - demand relationships in the industry; the non - ferrous metals market is affected by global economic trends and supply - demand in the mining industry; the energy and chemicals market is affected by raw material prices and downstream demand; the cotton and textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand and domestic consumption; the agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by breeding cycles and supply - demand in the food market [5][7][10]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stocks**: Influenced by factors such as Fed policies, domestic economic data, and technological developments, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a medium - to long - term upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Bonds**: Affected by central bank policies and regulatory measures, the market is expected to trade sideways. The key lies in the actual buying power of year - end allocation funds and the guidance from important meetings [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: In a game between bearish realities and marginal support, it is recommended for short - term trading [7]. - **Rebar**: With low valuation and weak drivers, it is expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement and suitable for range trading [7]. - **Glass**: With high inventory, weak demand, and increasing supply expectations, it is expected to be in a low - level weak movement before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to be shorted on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by macro - easing expectations and long - term ore shortages, but with short - term over - rise risks, it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and replenish when the price stabilizes at a low level [10]. - **Aluminum**: With factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity adjustments, and weakening demand, it is recommended to reduce long positions or observe [12]. - **Nickel**: With an expected increase in supply and an oversupply pattern, it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15]. - **Tin**: With tight supply and weak downstream consumption, it is recommended for range trading, and attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by Fed policies and economic data, they are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement. Silver is recommended to hold long positions with caution in opening new positions, and gold is for range trading [17][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply disruptions and strong demand, it is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement, and attention should be paid to mine developments [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak demand, and low valuation, it is expected to be in a low - level sideways movement and suitable for range trading [21]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high inventory and uncertain supply - demand changes, it is recommended for temporary observation [22]. - **Styrene**: Affected by factors such as oil blending and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [23]. - **Rubber**: Affected by supply shortages and inventory changes, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [23]. - **Urea**: With sufficient supply and stable demand and supply, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [25]. - **Methanol**: With supply recovery, high - level but fluctuating downstream demand, and inventory reduction, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [26]. - **Polyolefins**: With strong supply and weak demand, it is expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement. PE is expected to be in a range - bound movement, and PP is expected to be in a relatively weak movement [28]. - **Soda Ash**: With supply overcapacity and cost support, it is recommended for temporary observation [30]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand and domestic sales, they are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement [30]. - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to move upward in a volatile manner [32]. - **Apples and Jujubes**: With weak demand and supply - demand relationships, they are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [32][33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: With short - term supply pressure and long - term capacity adjustment, near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and far - term contracts are bullish cautiously [34]. - **Eggs**: With sufficient supply and short - term balanced supply - demand, the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to long - term capacity changes [37]. - **Corn**: With short - term selling pressure and long - term demand recovery, it should be chased with caution in the short term and hedged on rallies [40]. - **Soybean Meal**: With different trends for near - and far - term contracts, it is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices for the December - January basis [40]. - **Oils**: Affected by reports and supply - demand relationships, they are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement. It is recommended to be shorted with caution for soybean and palm oils [47].

目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 长江期货贵金属周报 2025/12/15 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 2025/01/02 2025/02/02 2025/03/02 2025/04/02 2025/05/02 2025/06/02 2025/07/02 2025/08/02 2025/09/02 2025/10/02 2025/11/02 2025/12/02 美联储12月议息会议如期降息25基点，表示将根据需要 启动短期国债购买美，黄金价格偏强震荡。截至上周五， 美黄金报收4330美元/盎司，周内上涨2.4%，关注上方 压力位4400，下方支撑位4250。 美黄金连 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on the Aquaculture Industry - Report Date: December 15, 2025 - Researcher: Ye Tian - Researcher's License Number: F03089203 (Practice), Z0020750 (Investment Consultation) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the futures price is oscillating. In the short term, the price rebound lacks sustainability, and in the long - term, the price is expected to be relatively strong in the second half of next year, but caution is needed [5][57]. - **Eggs**: The inventory base is still large, and the futures market shows near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the short term, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and in the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [7][81]. - **Corn**: There is still selling pressure to be digested, and the futures market should be cautiously chased up. In the short term, selling pressure needs to be released, and in the long - term, the cost has strong support but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [8][101]. Summary by Directory 1. Feed and Aquaculture Viewpoints Summary Pigs - **Spot - Futures Market**: As of December 12, the national spot price was 11.34 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg from last week. The futures price of live pigs 2503 reached 11,325 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from last week. The 03 - contract basis was 75 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly pig price first declined and then rose [5][14][57]. - **Supply Side**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in September and the de - capacity accelerated in October. Before the first half of next year, the supply will remain high. From December to the first quarter of next year, the supply pressure is still large. The planned pig slaughter of large - scale enterprises in December increased month - on - month [5][18][57]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly slaughter rate and volume continued to increase, the white - strip pork price rose slightly, the terminal consumption increased seasonally, and the fresh - sales rate continued to rise. However, the frozen - product inventory is high, which will suppress supply in the future [5][57]. - **Cost Side**: The weekly piglet price rose slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit loss narrowed [5][57]. - **Weekly Conclusion**: In the short term, the price rebound lacks sustainability; in the long term, the price in the second half of next year is expected to be relatively strong, but caution is needed [5][57]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For short - term near - month contracts, consider short - selling on rebounds; for long - term far - month contracts, be cautiously bullish, and industries can hedge on rebounds above profits [5][57]. Eggs - **Spot - Futures Market**: As of December 12, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from last Friday. The futures price of the main egg 2601 contract was 3,077 yuan/500 kg, down 40 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 387 yuan/500 kg, up 90 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The weekly egg price rose slightly, and the futures market was volatile at the bottom [7][63][81]. - **Supply Side**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in December decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the supply pressure weakened marginally, but the inventory base was still large. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists, and the market will experience a bottom - grinding process [7][81]. - **Demand Side**: The terminal demand lacks festival support, but the cold weather stimulates channel inventory demand. The high vegetable prices and the low - priced eggs drive the terminal substitution demand [7][81]. - **Weekly Conclusion**: In the short term, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the egg price lacks driving force; in the long term, the supply pressure still exists [7][81]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 01 contract, breeding enterprises can hedge on rebounds; in the medium term, if there is large - scale culling around the Spring Festival, it may relieve the post - festival supply pressure; in the long term, pay attention to external factors for passive de - capacity [7][81]. Corn - **Spot - Futures Market**: As of December 12, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,315 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main corn 2601 contract was 2,242 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 73 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton from last Friday. The weekly national corn price stagnated and slightly declined [8][86][101]. - **Supply Side**: The national grass - roots grain sales progress was 40%, which was relatively fast. The import of international grains remained low. The inventory in the north and south ports decreased month - on - month [8][101]. - **Demand Side**: The high inventory of pigs and poultry supports rigid feed demand. However, if the corn price continues to rise, the wheat substitution may increase. The deep - processing demand is limited due to high inventory and low profit [8][101]. - **Weekly Conclusion**: In the short term, there is still selling pressure, and the price rebound height is limited; in the long term, the cost has strong support, but the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose [8][101]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, be cautious about chasing up the futures market, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. In the long term, the demand will gradually be released, but the supply - demand pattern restricts the increase [8][101]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis - **Pigs**: It includes data such as slaughter weight, fat - standard price difference, slaughter rate, fresh - sales rate, frozen - product inventory rate, pig - grain ratio, and breeding profit [10]. - **Eggs**: It contains data on egg prices, hatching egg utilization rate, culled chicken sales, egg sales volume, inventory days, and breeding profit [64]. - **Corn**: It involves data on corn prices, grain - selling progress, port inventory, deep - processing enterprise start - up rate, and processing profit [87].

2025-12-15 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 股指会议支撑暂歇，债市 或震荡运行 金融期货策略建议 目 录 01 重点数据跟踪 02 01 金融期货策略建议 p 国债走势回顾：30年期主力合约跌0.71%，10年期主力合约跌0.13%，5年期主力合约跌0.08%，2年期主 力合约跌0.01%。 p 核心观点：货币方面， "把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准 降息等多种政策工具" 。灵活高效或许有两层含义：1）在经济运行整体向好的环境下，保持克制的政策力 度，注重高效；2）但当经济出现失速风险，或者因外部冲击出现一些不利局面时，货币政策必须灵活，政 策力度也可能更大，或许将超出市场预期。这意味着货币政策是相机抉择的立场倾向，市场不宜站在当前时 点就判断明年降息幅度比较有限，也不宜过度期待。尽管前期超长债面临的供需关系结构性失衡问题并未彻 底得到解决，曲线在中期维度或许依然保持偏陡状态运行。后续的供给压力以及配合性的货币环境或 ...