长江期货饲料产业周报 2025-12-22 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 目 录 01 生猪：供需博弈，期价震荡加剧 ◆ 风险提示：生猪疫情、规模场散户出栏情况、需求表现、二次育肥和冻品节奏、政策 ◆ 期现端：截至12月19日，全国现货价格11.57元/公斤，较上周涨0.23元/公斤；河南猪价11.7元/公斤，较上周涨0.3元/公斤；生猪2503收至11325元/吨，较上周稳定；03合约基差 375元/吨，较上周涨300元/吨。周度生猪价格重心上移，前半周冬至备货和降温提振消费，价格震荡上涨，随后养殖端增量出栏，冬至备货高峰后屠宰量回落，价格滞涨；期货主 力03跟随现货先扬后抑，窄幅波动，基差走强，远月先跌后涨，震荡运行；周末现货止跌企稳。 ◆ 供应端：9月官方能繁母猪存栏量小降，10月在政策调控和养殖利润亏损背景下，产能去化有所加速，但仍在正常保有量3900万之上，叠加生产性能提升，在疫情相对可控情况下， 明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are weak, with domestic downstream demand entering the off - season and the开工 rate under pressure. Although the macro - atmosphere is good and many non - ferrous metals have risen, and technically, LME aluminum has broken through the resistance level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to strengthen the wait - and - see for both Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View - **Fundamental Analysis**: Domestic and foreign bauxite prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure. Alumina operating capacity remains stable, while electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increases slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand is in the off - season. The inventory of aluminum ingots supports the aluminum price, and the demand for recycled cast aluminum alloy is gradually slowing down. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to strengthen the wait - and - see for both Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [5] 3.2 Macro - economic Indicators - The content mainly presents charts of US Treasury bond yields, the US dollar index, and RMB exchange rates, but no specific analysis is provided 3.3 Bauxite - Shanxi bauxite prices are temporarily stable, while Henan bauxite prices have dropped significantly. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $69.9 per dry ton. Imported ore prices are expected to continue to decline due to increased supply, and $70 per dry ton is the key negotiation price for 2025 long - term contracts [11] 3.4 Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating rate was 83.6%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2724.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28.5 yuan/ton. The national alumina inventory was 458.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 102,000 tons. Alumina enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production [14] 3.5 Alumina Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of alumina basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume, without specific analysis 3.6 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.302 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons; the operating capacity was 44.494 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. Some enterprises have reduced production for technological transformation, while new production capacity such as Tianshan Aluminum and Zha Aluminum is gradually being put into operation [23] 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of aluminum import profit, Shanghai aluminum forward curve, aluminum rod processing fee, and动力煤 prices, without specific analysis 3.8 Inventory - The content presents charts of aluminum rod social inventory, aluminum ingot social inventory, SHFE aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, without specific analysis 3.9 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 59.8% week - on - week. Since mid - December, the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises have weakened, and demand has gradually slowed down. Environmental protection control in Chongqing has also restricted the recovery of the local operating rate [35] 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of aluminum profile prices, aluminum alloy futures forward curve, ADC12 - A00 price difference seasonal trend, and ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot import profit, without specific analysis 3.11 and 3.12 Downstream开工 - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 61.5%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 51.6%, and the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 65%. The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises has a pattern of strong expectations but weak reality, and the operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 60% week - on - week [47][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The polyolefin price trend was divided this week. The continuous decline in the PE agricultural film operating rate led the L main contract to seek the bottom unilaterally. The PP operating rate was decent, and the slight increase in the BOPP operating rate supported the PP main contract price. Overall, the fundamental situation remained one of strong supply and weak demand, and there was significant upward pressure on polyolefins as a whole. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6300 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate within a range, with attention on the 6200 support level. The LP spread is expected to narrow [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6320 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.56%. The average price of LDPE was 8550 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 1.54%. The average price of HDPE was 7012.5 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6605 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.42%. The LLDPE South China basis was 285 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.75%. The 1 - 5 month spread was -48 yuan/ton (-38) [12]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -48 yuan/ton (-38), the 5 - 9 month spread was -47 yuan/ton (-14), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 95 yuan/ton (52) [18]. - **Key Data Tracking - Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline [20][21]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.54 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.99 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.10 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (-30) [23]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was -279 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton from the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was -13 yuan/ton, an increase of 163 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 67.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. The maintenance loss this week was 9.86 tons, an increase of 0.87 tons from the previous week [32]. - **Key Data Tracking - 2025 Commissioning Plan**: A total of 543 tons of new polyethylene production capacity was planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already commissioned and some scheduled for December 2025 [35]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many polyethylene production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [37]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films was 45.18%, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging films was 48.96%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 31.00%, unchanged from the previous weekend [39]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films was the highest, accounting for 37.3%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data was significant, currently accounting for 8.6%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level [42]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 46.87 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [45]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11332 lots, unchanged from the previous week [48]. PP - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83% [52]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products showed different degrees of decline [54][56]. - **Key Data Tracking - Basis**: On December 19, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi was 6253.33 yuan/ton (-0%). The PP basis was 40 yuan/ton (-84), and the 1 - 5 month spread was -81 yuan/ton (-42) [58]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -81 yuan/ton (-42), the 5 - 9 month spread was -27 yuan/ton (16), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 108 yuan/ton (26) [63]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: The cost situation was the same as that of plastic, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreasing and anthracite price at the Yangtze River port also decreasing [68]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was -522.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 82.14 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was -576.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.40 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China was 79.40%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 81.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The weekly output of PP powder was 6.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.72% [75]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [78]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 53.80% (-0.19). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.00% (-0.06%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (+0.31%), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.50% (-0.05%), and the operating rate of pipes was 42.07% (-0.23%) [80]. - **Key Data Tracking - Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was -318.03 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.63 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was -1.18 US dollars per ton, an increase of 1.26 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week [86]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 53.78 tons (+0.13%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 1.73% week - on - week; the inventory of traders decreased by 4.34% week - on - week; and the port inventory decreased by 1.03% week - on - week. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 1012.13 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.59%. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 10.12 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.91% [89][95]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 10934 lots, a decrease of 4813 lots from the previous week [99].

01 主要观点策略 铜周报：铜矿长单TC落地，铜价高位整理 2025-12-22 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜高位震荡。截至上周五收至83180元/吨，周跌幅1.05%。宏观层面，美国11月CPI数据低于预期，虽短暂提振降息预期， 但对铜价的直接刺激有限，市场已基本消化年内货币政策路径。矿端持续紧缺，中国头部冶炼企业与Antofagasta敲定2026年铜精矿 长单加工费Benchmark为0美元/吨与0美分/磅。传统淡季下游需求放缓，铜库存累库叠加宏观缺乏指引下，预计铜价高位震荡运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 25-12-19 25-12-15 25-12-09 25-12-03 25-11-27 25-11-21 25-11-17 25-11-11 25-11-05 25-10-30 25-10-24 25-10-20 25-10-14 25-09-30 25-09-24 25-09-18 25-09-12 25-09-08 ...

| 品种 基本面分析 | 展望 | | --- | --- | | 板块综述：上周黑色板块触底反弹，双焦价格大幅上涨，基本收复前一周跌幅，品种间强弱关系为焦炭>焦煤>铁矿>螺纹>热卷。 | | | 宏观政策方面：商务部、海关总署公布对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，明年钢铁出口可能受此影响下滑，不过盘面低开高走，并 | | | 未对该利空充分计价，由于执行日期为明年1月1日开始，具体影响可能明年才逐步兑现。供需格局方面：钢材产量、表需同比都处于低 | | | 位，库存去化依旧顺畅，短期供需矛盾不大，随着铁水产量持续走低，压力逐步向原料端传导，焦炭提降第三轮，但铁矿价格异常坚挺。 | | | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格回升至电炉谷电成本以上，静态估值中性；驱动方面，重磅会议 相继落地，预期平稳，短期再度处于政策真空期，我国对钢铁实施出口许可证管理，钢材出口存 钢材 | 涨跌空间均不大，短线 | | 在走弱预期，但是具体影响在明年才会兑现，产业方面，上周钢材产量、需求双增，库存顺畅去 | 交易为主。 | | 化，短期供需矛盾不大。 | | | 上周原煤产量微增，煤矿持续累库。焦炭方面，随着铁水产量进一步下滑，钢厂原 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the off - season. The number of urea maintenance units has increased, and the daily output has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level year - on - year. Agricultural fertilizer demand is weakening, mainly for reserve purchases. The increase in raw material replenishment of compound fertilizers supports urea demand. Port inventory has decreased, and registered warehouse receipts have increased significantly. Urea enterprise inventory has been destocking for nearly two months, but the destocking rate has slowed down recently. Although off - season storage and exports ease the short - term supply pressure, the medium - and long - term supply pressure still exists [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price was first weak and then strong. On December 19, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1697 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a maximum of 1720 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1666 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1676 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.36% increase [2][3]. - The main urea basis weakened. On December 19, the main basis in the Henan market was - 21 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis ranged from (- 42) to 27 yuan/ton [2][7]. - The urea 1 - 5 spread was first strong and then weak. On December 19, the 1 - 5 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, and the weekly operating range was from (- 52) to (- 37) yuan/ton [2][8]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 82.69%, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 57.69%, a decrease of 5.69 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily urea output was 19.51 tons. Some devices in Yunnan, Jilin, Henan, Anhui, Hubei, etc. were under maintenance or reduced production, while some devices in Xinjiang and Yunnan resumed production. The operation of gas - made urea devices decreased significantly, and some devices still had maintenance expectations, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in urea supply [2][10]. Cost - The anthracite market continued to operate weakly. As of December 18, the tax - included price of smokeless washed small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 870 - 940 yuan/ton, and the closing price center of gravity was down 15 yuan/ton from the same period last week [2][14]. Demand - The average advance collection of major urea producers was 5.8 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 99%. In terms of agricultural demand, it is mainly for reserve purchases. In terms of industrial demand, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer increased slightly, and the operating load rate of melamine decreased. Overall, production and sales were relatively stable [15][16]. - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 69.54 tons, an increase of 1.8 tons from the previous week. Winter storage was shipped in an orderly manner, and fertilizer enterprises adjusted their production starts flexibly. Production and sales in Northeast China were good, and the production start of fertilizer enterprises increased [2][20]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 60.77%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 3.135 tons. Some enterprises had short - term shutdowns and then resumed production, and some enterprises had production load reductions. Next week, some enterprises still have shutdown and overhaul plans, while some short - term shutdown and maintenance equipment will gradually resume production. It is expected that the overall operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will remain above 60% and fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support in the panel market increased [23]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 97.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons from the previous week. Urea port inventory was 23.3 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous week. There were 10,976 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 21.952 tons, a decrease of 320 receipts from the previous week, totaling 0.64 tons [2][26]. Key Points to Watch - The operating situation of compound fertilizers, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Stock Index Conference Disturbance Subsides, Bond Market May Oscillate" - Report Date: December 22, 2025 - Research Institution: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The competition for the Fed Chair has intensified. Market mainlines rotate rapidly, and recent positive and negative conference supports have ended. Stock indices may oscillate, and attention should be paid to the possible pre - New Year market. The MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate with a slight upward trend [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The cross - year funds remain loose, and the capital interest rate is at a low level. The short - and medium - term bonds have strengthened steadily in the loose capital environment, while the long - term yields still fluctuate within the oscillation range formed since November. Before the end of the year, there is no significant negative factor for the bond market, and the upward space for yields is limited. However, the current market is still dominated by trading desks, and the lack of allocation power may lead to short - term trading rhythms. Whether a breakthrough can be achieved depends on whether there is more concentrated allocation power release or more explicit easing signals such as an increase in treasury bond trading volume at the end of the month [11]. - **Economic Data**: The 11 - month manufacturing PMI rebounded weakly from a low level, still below the boom - bust line. In October, CPI and PPI both rebounded year - on - year and month - on - month. Exports declined year - on - year, industrial added value and fixed - asset investment growth rates decreased, social retail growth slowed down, and new social financing decreased year - on - year [18][21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - **Strategy Outlook**: Range oscillation [10]. - **Stock Index Performance Review**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.36% to 3890.45 points. All four major stock indices rose, with IC performing relatively the best [10]. - **Core Viewpoints**: The Fed Chair competition is intense. Market mainlines rotate fast, and recent positive and negative conference supports have ended. Stock indices may oscillate, and attention should be paid to the possible pre - New Year market [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate with a slight upward trend [10]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - **Treasury Bond Performance Review**: The 30 - year main contract rose 0.22% to 112.660 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.10% to 108.150 yuan, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.09% to 105.970 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04% to 102.490 yuan [11]. - **Core Viewpoints**: Cross - year funds are loose, and the capital interest rate is low. Short - and medium - term bonds have strengthened, and long - term yields fluctuate. There is no significant negative factor for the bond market before the end of the year, but the market is dominated by trading desks. Whether a breakthrough can be achieved depends on end - of - month signals [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate with a slight upward trend [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Oscillatory operation [11]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2% from a low level, still below the boom - bust line and lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 49.4%. The rebound was driven by a pulse - like strengthening of external demand, but the rebound was weak due to the decline in the prosperity of large enterprises. The price index was positive, indicating a possible increase in PPI month - on - month. The PMI rebound was weak, with readings significantly lower than the same period in previous years, the spread of contraction pressure, and a long - term downturn [18]. 3.2.2 CPI - In October 2025, the consumer price index increased by 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month; the producer price index decreased by 2.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The rebound was due to seasonal factors, low - base effects, and the "anti - involution" effect [21]. 3.2.3 Exports and Imports - In October 2025, China's exports were $305.35 billion, imports were $215.28 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.07 billion. The year - on - year decline in exports was due to the high - base effect of the same period last year and the weakening of seasonality, as well as the overdraft effect of pre - export [23][24]. 3.2.4 Industrial Added Value - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.9%, and the service production index dropped to 4.6%. The year - on - year growth rates of the two production data were below 5% for the first time since September 2024. The weakening of production was related to the high base after policy implementation in September 2024 and the decline in export support [28]. 3.2.5 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and it is estimated that in October, it decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, the second - lowest growth rate in history except for February 2020. The slowdown in fixed - asset investment was mainly due to the weakening of internal driving forces, with the growth rates of private and public investment both declining. In terms of expenditure directions, only equipment purchases maintained positive growth. The growth rates of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment all declined [31]. 3.2.6 Social Retail - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail dropped to 2.9%, and that of above - quota retail dropped to 1.6%. Consumption maintained positive growth under the high - base environment of last year, with a slight rebound in the two - year compound growth rate compared to September. The downward pressure on the growth rate of optional consumption increased, and the contribution rate of categories related to trade - in to the growth rate of social retail turned negative for the first time since September last year. The early "Double Eleven" on some platforms drove the growth rate of essential consumption to rebound, supporting consumption performance [34]. 3.2.7 Social Financing - In October, new social financing was 0.8 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6 trillion yuan. Government bonds and credit were the main drag factors. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing dropped to 8.5%, and the growth rate of credit in the social financing caliber dropped to 6.3%. The net financing of government bonds is expected to decrease by 1.2 trillion yuan year - on - year from November to December. After considering the 500 - billion - yuan government bond quota hedge, it is still expected to drag down social financing by 0.2 percentage points. The new policy - based financial tools were fully launched in October, and it is expected that the supporting financing will continue to improve, offsetting the decline in social financing to some extent [37].

2025-12-22 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 长江期货粕类油脂周报 01 02 油脂：报告及基本面偏空，豆棕油比菜油 更弱 豆粕 ：成本支撑下，近强远弱格局延续 目 录 豆粕：成本支撑下，近强远弱格局延续 01 01 豆粕：成本支撑下，近强远弱格局延续 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止12月19日，华东现货报价3010元/吨，周度下跌60元/吨；M2605合约收盘至2735元/吨，周度下跌35元/吨；基差报价05+280元/ 吨。周度美豆受国内买船尾声及出口销售压力影响，呈现下跌趋势；连盘近月01合约供需持续宽松影响高位回落，但成本支撑下3000元/吨附 近支撑较强；05合约受南美天气良好，丰产预期下价格走势偏弱，整体连盘维持近强远弱格局。 ◆ 供应端：目前市场暂时维持南美2025/26 年度大豆的丰产预期，全球大豆总供应量增幅低于总需求增幅，期末库存及库销比均高位回落，供需 格局略微收紧。全球2025/26年度产量达 ...

2025/12/22 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货贵金属周报 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 2025-01-02 2025-02-02 2025-03-02 2025-04-02 2025-05-02 2025-06-02 2025-07-02 2025-08-02 2025-09-02 2025-10-02 2025-11-02 2025-12-02 美国11月失业率升至4.6%，上升程度超预期，降息预 期升温，黄金价格偏强震荡。截至上周五，美黄金报收 4369美元/盎司，周内上涨0.9%，关注上方压力位4430， 下方支撑位4270。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 27.0000 37.0000 47.0000 57.0000 67.0000 2021-01-01 2022-01 ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the glass industry is "Continue to Weaken" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The cold repair expectation of 3,600 tons of glass production capacity in mid - to late December has basically failed, strengthening the fundamental pressure of stable supply at the end of the year. With the lack of year - end demand, large capital repayment pressure, and the lack of macro - positive expectations in the real estate sector, the glass futures market is likely to operate weakly at a low level before the Spring Festival, and the near - month contracts will continue to weaken [2] Summary by Directory 1. Investment Strategy - The main logic is based on the market situation, including price fluctuations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. The market's cold repair expectation has failed, and the end - of - year supply is stable while demand is lacking. Technically, the short - side force is increasing, so the glass near - month contracts are expected to continue to weaken [2] - The operation strategy is to expect the glass market to continue to weaken [2][3] 2. Spot Price Review - As of December 19, the 5mm float glass market prices in North China were 1,030 yuan/ton (- 10), in Central China 1,080 yuan/ton (0), and in East China 1,190 yuan/ton (- 10). The weekly changes of 5mm float glass prices for some manufacturers (such as Shahe Anquan, Shahe Great Wall, etc.) showed a downward trend, with a maximum decrease of 20 yuan/ton [8][9] - The glass 01 contract closed at 941 yuan/ton last Friday, up 6 for the week [9] 3. Spread Review - As of December 19, the difference between the soda ash futures price (1,176 yuan) and the glass futures price (1041 yuan) was 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared to before [10] - Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was - 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126 yuan/ton; the 05 - 09 spread was - 97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [14] 4. Profit Situation - For the natural - gas production process, the cost was 1,573 yuan/ton (0 change), and the gross profit was - 383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. For the coal - gas production process, the cost was 1,163 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. For the petroleum - coke production process, the cost was 1,087 yuan/ton (0 change), and the gross profit was - 7 yuan/ton (0 change) [18] 5. Supply Situation - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 155,105 tons/day (0 change), and there were currently 219 production lines in operation. There were some production line changes in the past, including cold repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [20][22] 6. Inventory Situation - As of December 19, the national inventory of 80 glass samples was on the rise (+ 33.1). Specifically, the inventory in North China was 1,045 million weight boxes (+ 40.8), in Central China 685 million weight boxes (+ 1.5), in East China 1,209.3 million weight boxes (- 2.1), in South China 797.3 million weight boxes (- 16.7), in Southwest China 1,197.2 million weight boxes (- 2.5), and the Shahe factory inventory was 350 million weight boxes (32). The Hubei factory inventory was 475 million weight boxes (+ 14) [24][27][30] 7. Production - Sales and Deep - Processing Situation - On December 18, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 89%, a decrease of 6%. On December 19, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 43.3%, a decrease of 1%. In mid - December, the available days of glass deep - processing orders were 9.7 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [31] 8. Demand from the Automotive Sector - In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 95,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 113,000 vehicles. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in November were 1.321 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [42] 9. Demand from the Real Estate Sector - In November, China's real estate completion area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; new construction area was 43.9531 million square meters (- 28%); construction area was 31.2717 million square meters (- 42%); and commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million square meters (- 18%). From December 8 to December 14, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.12 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 13% and a year - on - year decrease of 35%. In November, the real estate development investment was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [47] 10. Soda Ash Cost - End: Basis Strengthening - As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were: 1,325 yuan/ton in North China (0 change), 1,250 yuan/ton in East China (0 change), 1,300 yuan/ton in Central China (0 change), and 1,450 yuan/ton in South China (0 change). Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,176 yuan/ton (+ 83). The basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [49][51][53] 11. Soda Ash Cost - End: Cost Decrease - As of last Friday, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the co - production process cost was 1,781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The overall soda ash profit was - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride in Xuzhou Fengcheng was 300 yuan/ton (0 change) [55][56][57] 12. Soda Ash Cost - End: Inventory Recovery - Last week, domestic soda ash production was 721,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons, including 390,300 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons) and 331,100 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons). The loss amount was 150,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons. The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 4,532 pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 1,231 pieces. As of December 19, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons [65][66][68] 13. Soda Ash Cost - End: Apparent Demand Decline - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 409,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 307,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,300 tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 99.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.71%. The inventory days of soda ash were 24.1 days [74][80]