1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade in a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6,500, while the PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, with support at 6,200. The LP spread is expected to widen [8][9]. - Plastics still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in an oscillatory manner [10]. - Polypropylene faces significant trend pressure and is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [51]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Plastic Market Review - On December 12, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,476 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.82%. The average price of LDPE was 8,683.33 yuan/ton, down 2.43% month - on - month; the average price of HDPE was 7,200 yuan/ton, down 1.54% month - on - month; and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,768.89 yuan/ton, down 3.30% month - on - month. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 282.89 yuan/ton, down 13.22% month - on - month, and the January - May spread was - 68 yuan/ton [12]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The January - May spread on December 12 was - 10 yuan/ton, with a change of 58 yuan; the May - September spread was - 33 yuan/ton, with a change of 13 yuan; the September - January spread was 43 yuan/ton, with a change of - 71 yuan [20]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline [21][22]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $57.53 per barrel, up $2.61 from last week; Brent crude oil closed at $61.22 per barrel, down $2.64 from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton, unchanged [24]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 481 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PE was - 176 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production capacity utilization rate was 84.11%, up 0.06 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 681,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%. The maintenance loss this week was 89,900 tons, down 90 tons from last week [32]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have put into production or are planning to put into production polyethylene plants in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 5.43 million tons [35]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Some enterprises' polyethylene production lines are in a state of shutdown for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain [36]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film capacity utilization rate was 46.40%, down 1.72% from last week; the PE packaging film capacity utilization rate was 49.59%, down 0.63% from last weekend; the PE pipe capacity utilization rate was 31.00%, down 0.83% from last weekend [38]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 38.9%, with a difference of 3.4% from the annual average level; the data of low - pressure pipes differ significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 11.8%, with a difference of 1.4% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 456,500 tons, down 2,990 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.15% [44]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,332 lots, unchanged from last week [48]. Polypropylene Market Review - On December 12, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,129 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan/ton from last weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% [52]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various polypropylene - related products and other plastics showed different degrees of decline or change [54][56]. - **Basis**: On December 12, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6,253.33 yuan/ton, down 2.51%. The PP basis was 124 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan [58]. - **Month - spread**: The January - May spread on December 12 was - 39 yuan/ton, with a change of 56 yuan; the May - September spread was - 43 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan; the September - January spread was 82 yuan/ton, with a change of - 51 yuan [63]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $57.53 per barrel, up $2.61 from last week; Brent crude oil closed at $61.22 per barrel, down $2.64 from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton, unchanged [68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 604.22 yuan/ton, down 16.45 yuan/ton from last weekend; the profit of coal - based PP was - 568.80 yuan/ton, down 52.04 yuan/ton from last weekend [73]. - **Supply**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's PP petrochemical enterprises was 78.25%, up 0.64 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 807,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.83%. The weekly output of PP powder was 71,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.20% [75]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Some polypropylene production lines of enterprises are in a state of shutdown for maintenance, and the restart time is mostly uncertain [78]. - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream capacity utilization rate was 53.99%, up 0.06%. The capacity utilization rate of plastic weaving was 44.06%, down 0.04%; the capacity utilization rate of BOPP was 62.93%, up 0.33%; the capacity utilization rate of injection molding was 58.57%, down 0.38%; the capacity utilization rate of pipes was 42.30%, unchanged [80]. - **Export - Import Profit**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - $268.68 per ton, down $21.72 from last week; the export profit was - $14.00 per ton, down $1.70 from last week [85]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 537,100 tons, down 4.97%. The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies decreased by 1.22% month - on - month; the trader inventory decreased by 5.69% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 5.25% month - on - month [87]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 15,747 lots, down 15 lots from last week [95].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 15, 2025 [3] Group 2: Weekly Viewpoint Supply Situation - Last week, the weekly output of carbonate lithium increased by 170 tons to 24,065 tons, and the November output increased by 3% month-on-month to 103,740 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re-review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. [5] - In October 2025, China imported 652,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium concentrate imports from Australia decreased by 15% month-on-month, imports from Zimbabwe were 150,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 41%, and imports from Nigeria were 120,000 tons, remaining flat month-on-month. In October, carbonate lithium imports were 23,881 tons, a month-on-month increase of 21.9%, with 14,800 tons imported from Chile, accounting for 62%. [5] - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week-on-week, causing some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium from purchased lithium ore to face cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure. [5] Demand Situation - In October, the overall production schedule increased month-on-month, and the production schedule of large cell factories increased by 8% in September. In November, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 49.2%. The total export of power and other batteries was 32.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year increase of 46.5%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 179.4 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 8.1% and a year-on-year increase of 52.2%. The trade-in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of sales in the Chinese new energy vehicle market. [6] Inventory Situation - This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a de-stocking state, with the factory inventory of carbonate lithium decreasing by 75 tons, the market inventory decreasing by 5,615 tons, and the futures inventory increasing by 4,128 tons. [6] Strategy Suggestion - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down. In November, the domestic carbonate lithium output increased by 3% month-on-month, and in October, 652,000 tons of lithium concentrate were imported, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%. The total import volume of carbonate lithium in October was about 24,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 22% and a year-on-year increase of 3%. Downstream demand is strong, and the de-stocking trend continues. It is expected that subsequent lithium salt imports from South America will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good, but the production schedule in December is expected to decline slightly. In November, the production schedule of cathode materials increased by 2% month-on-month, and in October, it increased by 4% month-on-month. The risk of mining certificates in Yichun persists. With profit restoration, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase in production, and the cost center has shifted upward. The expectation of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine resuming production within the year has been dashed, and the downstream production schedule exceeds expectations. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the ore end in Yichun. Downstream buyers are actively purchasing carbonate lithium, the de-stocking trend continues, and the inventory of traders has accumulated. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to continuously monitor the progress of mining certificates in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine. [7] Group 3: Key Data Tracking Price Data - Data on the spot tax-included average price of carbonate lithium in Shanghai Nonferrous Metals from April 1, 2019, to October 9, 2025 [9] - Data on the average price of 99.2% industrial-grade carbonate lithium from June 13, 2023, to October 13, 2025 [18] - Data on the average price of imported lithium concentrate (Li2O: 6%-6.5%) from January 2, 2019, to May 26, 2025 [21] - Data on the average price of power-type lithium iron phosphate from February 8, 2021, to September 19, 2025 [43] - Data on the market price of ternary material 8-series NCA type from January 1, 2021, to November 6, 2025 [47] Production Data - Data on the weekly production of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [10][11] - Data on the monthly production of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [12][13] - Data on the production of power and other batteries (including monthly values, values of lithium iron phosphate, and year-on-year growth rates) from January 2020 to October 2025 [24] - In November 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 19.56% from salt lakes, 23.05% from lithium mica, and 45.37% from lithium spodumene [25][26] - Data on the monthly production of ternary materials from 2021 to 2025 [32][33] - Data on the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate from 2021 to 2025 [36][37] Inventory Data - Data on the weekly inventory of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [14][15] - Data on the monthly factory inventory of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [19][20] Import Data - Data on the import volume of lithium spodumene from 2021 to 2025 [40][41] - Data on the import volume of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: The Fed's Dovish Rate Cut and the Continuous New High of New York Copper Inventory [1] Report Date - December 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper showed a strong and volatile trend, reaching a new historical high at 84,080 yuan/ton on Friday with a weekly increase of 1.40%, but it dropped significantly during the night session on the weekend. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Powell's stance was neutral while restarting the balance - sheet expansion. The Central Economic Work Conference in China boosted market sentiment. The copper concentrate TC remains at a historically low negative level, and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The shortage of copper mines supports the copper price center. Although the downstream demand slows down in the off - season, the operating rate of copper foils related to new energy and energy storage has increased. The copper price may continue to fluctuate at a high level [5]. - On the supply side, the mine is in continuous shortage, and TC remains at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory decreased, and the electrolytic copper production is expected to rise again in December. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate weakened due to high copper prices, except for the copper foil operating rate which reached a new high. In terms of inventory, the destocking of domestic copper social inventory slowed down, while LME and COMEX copper inventories continued to accumulate [8][9]. - The Fed's liquidity release and balance - sheet expansion expectations still support the copper price in the short term, but the internal differences in the Fed bring great uncertainty to the interest - rate cut rhythm next year. The market situation is still chaotic, and the high copper price suppresses downstream consumption. It is expected that the upward resistance of the copper price will increase, and it may enter a high - level oscillation stage. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and replenish them after the price stabilizes at a low level [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Market Review - Shanghai copper showed a strong and volatile trend last week, reaching a new historical high at 84,080 yuan/ton on Friday with a weekly increase of 1.40%, but it dropped significantly during the night session on the weekend. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Powell's stance was neutral while restarting the balance - sheet expansion. The Central Economic Work Conference in China boosted market sentiment [5]. 1.2 Supply - side Situation - The mine is in continuous shortage, and TC remains at a historical low. As of December 12, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 664,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.59%. The copper concentrate spot smelting fee was - 43.13 US dollars/ton. The domestic southern copper scrap processing fee in October was 1000 yuan/ton, and the imported CIF copper scrap processing fee was 90 US dollars/ton. After the decline in electrolytic copper production in September and October, it remained stable in November. The electrolytic copper production in November increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month, with a month - on - month increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The production in December is expected to rise again [8][37]. 1.3 Demand - side Situation - As of December 21, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 64.54%, a 1.87 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods in October were 68.39%, 86.30%, and 50.18% respectively. In November, the operating rate of the copper pipe industry increased slightly month - on - month but still showed the largest year - on - year decline in recent years. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive months, reaching a new high this year [9][40]. 1.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 12, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 8.94 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54%. As of December 11, the domestic copper social inventory was 163,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.58%. As of November 21, the LME copper inventory was 165,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 45,060 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.15% [9][45]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestions - The Fed's liquidity release and balance - sheet expansion expectations still support the copper price in the short term, but the internal differences in the Fed bring great uncertainty to the interest - rate cut rhythm next year. The market situation is still chaotic, and the high copper price suppresses downstream consumption. It is expected that the upward resistance of the copper price will increase, and it may enter a high - level oscillation stage. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and replenish them after the price stabilizes at a low level [10]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - In November, China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The trade surplus in November was 111.68 billion US dollars. From January to November, China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.4% year - on - year, imports decreased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 1.076 trillion US dollars [15]. - From January to November, the cumulative increase in China's social financing scale was 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The new social financing in November was 2.49 trillion yuan. At the end of November, the stock of social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [16]. - In November, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024. The PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [17]. - On December 10, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75%, and planned to start buying Treasury bills from December 12, with a monthly purchase of 40 billion US dollars [18]. 2.2 Industrial Information Overview - In October, the copper production of Codelco in Chile decreased by 14.3% year - on - year, while the copper production of Escondida increased. The copper production of Collahuasi decreased by 29.3% year - on - year [20]. - In November, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 4.883 million tons, a 4.7% year - on - year decrease. The imports of copper ore concentrates in November were 2.526 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year increase [20]. - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources was approved by the shareholders of both parties, aiming to form a new mining giant with an annual copper production of over 1.2 million tons [20]. - Rio2 acquired a 99.1% stake in the Condestable copper mine in Peru for 241 million US dollars, with a potential future copper - equivalent annual production of about 27,000 tons [20]. 3. Spot - Futures Market and Positioning Situation 3.1 Premiums and Discounts - During the week, the copper price continued to rise, and the purchasing sentiment declined, causing the Shanghai copper spot premium to fall under pressure. The LME copper 0 - 3 maintained a small premium, and the New York - London copper spread weakened [23]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of December 12, the Shanghai copper futures position was 222,313 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6.00%, and the average daily trading volume was 165,509.6 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 5.14%. As of December 5, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 11,859.6 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 54.41%. As of November 18, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 61,603 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 2.66% [27]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply - side - The mine is in continuous shortage, and TC remains at a historical low. As of December 12, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 664,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.59%. The copper concentrate spot smelting fee was - 43.13 US dollars/ton. The domestic southern copper scrap processing fee in October was 1000 yuan/ton, and the imported CIF copper scrap processing fee was 90 US dollars/ton. After the decline in electrolytic copper production in September and October, it remained stable in November. The electrolytic copper production in November increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month, with a month - on - month increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The production in December is expected to rise again [37]. 4.2 Downstream Operating Rates - As of December 21, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 64.54%, a 1.87 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods in October were 68.39%, 86.30%, and 50.18% respectively. In November, the operating rate of the copper pipe industry increased slightly month - on - month but still showed the largest year - on - year decline in recent years. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive months, reaching a new high this year [40]. 4.3 Inventory - As of December 12, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 8.94 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54%. As of December 11, the domestic copper social inventory was 163,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.58%. As of November 21, the LME copper inventory was 165,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 45,060 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.15% [45].

长江期货尿素周报： 供需面偏稳 关注短期消息影响 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2025-12-15 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 1 市场变化：价格：尿素周度价格下行明显，12月12日尿素2601合约收盘价1625元/吨，较上周下调48元/吨，期间最 高1670元/吨，最低1624元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1670元/吨，较上周下调22元/吨，跌幅1.3%。基差：尿素 现货价格偏稳，期货价格下行，主力基差连续走强，12月12日河南市场主力基差45元/吨，周度基差运行区间28— 45元/吨。价差：尿素1-5价差窄幅震荡，12月12日1-5价差-58元/吨，周度运行区间（-68）—（-58）元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率83.95%，较上周提升1.19个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率63.6%，较 上周降低4.54个百分点，尿素日均产量19.79万吨。供应方面，下周山东检修装置或将复产，日产量仍在20万吨附近。 成本端无烟末煤市场延续下行，块煤价格以稳为主，截至 ...

长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-12-15 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 02 油脂：报告及基本面偏空，豆棕油比菜油 更弱 豆粕：成本叠加去库支撑，价格偏强运行 目 录 01 豆粕：成本叠加去库支撑，价格偏强运行 01 豆粕：成本叠加去库支撑，价格偏强运行 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止12月12日，华东现货报价3070元/吨，周度上涨50元/吨；M2601合约收盘至3083元/吨，周度上涨47元/吨；基差报价01-10元/吨， 期现逐步回归。周度受大豆到港通关时间延长，同时大豆逐步进去去库周期，供需收紧下价格走势偏强，同时拍卖大豆价格在3900元/吨以上， 支撑豆粕底部价格；远月受天气好转以及成本低位，价格呈现偏弱走势。 ◆ 供应端：目前市场暂时维持南美2025/26 年度大豆的丰产预期，全球大豆总供应量增幅低于总需求增幅，期末库存及库销比均高位回落，供需 格局略微收紧。全球2025/26年度产量达4.22亿吨，同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry in this report is "Weak Operation" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass futures declined significantly last week, and the spot price suppressed the futures market again. With high inventory at the end of the year and great pressure on capital repayment, the willingness of middle - stream traders to purchase is low. The production capacity is stable at the end of the year, and the demand is weak, so the near - month contracts face great pressure. Before the Spring Festival, the glass futures market is likely to operate weakly at a low level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Investment Strategy - Main Logic: The glass futures dropped sharply last week. High - end inventory, capital repayment pressure, and weak demand led to low purchasing willingness of middle - stream traders. A car glass production line was restarted last week, and the daily melting volume slightly increased. The market in the Shahe area is weak, and the prices in Hubei may decline. The prices in East and South China also decreased. The supply increase expectation of soda ash is fermenting, and the demand from the float glass and photovoltaic industries is saturated. In the short term, there is no news of production line shutdown, and the end - of - year production capacity is stable. The demand is weak, and the near - month contracts are under great pressure. Technically, the short - side force dominates [2] - Operation Strategy: The market is expected to operate weakly [2][3] 02. Market Review: Futures Drop Significantly - Spot Prices: As of December 12, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,040 yuan/ton (- 30) in North China, 1,080 yuan/ton (- 30) in Central China, and 1,200 yuan/ton (- 10) in East China. The prices of 5mm float glass from some manufacturers also decreased, such as a - 28 yuan/ton change for Shahe Anquan and a - 44 yuan/ton change for Shahe Great Wall [9][10] - Futures Prices: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 935 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 59 yuan/ton [10] 03. Market Review: Basis Widens Near Delivery - Soda Ash - Glass Price Difference: As of December 12, the futures price of soda ash was 1,093 yuan/ton, and that of glass was 935 yuan/ton. The price difference was 158 yuan/ton (+ 15) [11] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was 125 yuan/ton (+ 19) [15] - Contract Spread: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 81 yuan/ton (+ 40) [15] 04. Profit: Gross Profit Turns Negative - Natural Gas Production Process: The cost is 1,572 yuan/ton (- 1), and the gross profit is - 372 yuan/ton (+ 9) [19] - Coal - Gas Production Process: The cost is 1,181 yuan/ton (- 10), and the gross profit is - 141 yuan/ton (- 20) [19] - Petroleum Coke Production Process: The cost is 1,086 yuan/ton (- 1), and the gross profit is - 6 yuan/ton (- 29) [19] - Fuel Prices: On December 12, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of 3% sulfur shot coke from the US was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 612 yuan/ton [19] 05. Supply: Slightly Decreases - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 155,105 tons/day (- 1,100), and there were 219 production lines in operation. The second - line of Anhui Wuhu Xinyi Electronics with a capacity of 500T/D was restarted last week [21] 06. Inventory: Remains High and Stable - As of December 12, the inventory of 80 glass samples across the country: North China had 10.042 million weight boxes (- 129,000), Central China had 6.835 million weight boxes (+ 125,000), East China had 12.114 million weight boxes (- 139,000), South China had 8.14 million weight boxes (- 537,000), Southwest had 11.997 million weight boxes (- 603,000), the factory warehouse in Shahe had 3.18 million weight boxes (unchanged), and the factory warehouse in Hubei had 4.61 million weight boxes (+ 160,000). The total production - factory inventory was 58.227 million weight boxes (- 1.215 million) [25][28] 07. Deep - Processing:开工率下降 - Production and Sales Ratio: On December 11, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 95% (- 11%) [29] - LOW - E Glass: On December 12, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.3% (- 1.1%) [29] - Order Availability Days: At the beginning of December, the order days for glass deep - processing were 10.1 days (+ 0.2) [29] 08. Demand: New - Energy Vehicle Production Reaches a New High - Automobiles: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 95,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 113,000 vehicles [38] - New - Energy Vehicles: In November, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.321 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [38] 09. Demand: Real - Estate Data Declines Year - on - Year - Real - Estate: In October, China's real - estate completion area was 37.3212 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 28%; the new construction area was 36.6207 million m² (- 29%); the construction area was 43.5928 million m² (- 7%); and the commercial housing sales area was 61.47 million m² (- 20%). The real - estate development investment in October was 585.699 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23% [45] - Transaction Area: From December 6 to December 12, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.22 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 22% [45] 10. Cost Side - Soda Ash: Basis Strengthens - Spot Prices: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China [47] - Futures Prices: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,093 yuan/ton (- 44) [52] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 01 contract was 207 yuan/ton (+ 44) [51] 11. Cost Side - Soda Ash: Cost Decreases - Soda Ash Profit: As of last Friday, the profit was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 50) [53] - Other Prices: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,405 yuan/ton (+ 103), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride from Xuzhou Fengcheng was 300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [54] - Production Costs: The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,353 yuan/ton (- 22), and the gross profit was - 68 yuan/ton (+ 1); the cost of the joint - production process was 1,781 yuan/ton (- 61), and the gross profit was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 50) [53][55] 12. Cost Side - Soda Ash: Inventory Increases - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Last weekend, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts in the exchange was 5,763 (- 678) [66] - Inventory: As of December 12, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4943 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 44,300 tons), including 790,500 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 20,300 tons) and 703,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 24,000 tons) [63][66] - Soda Ash Production: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 735,400 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,500 tons), including 397,800 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons) and 337,600 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 15,200 tons). The loss volume was 135,300 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 32,200 tons) [66] 13. Cost Side - Soda Ash: Apparent Demand is Moderate - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 418,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 361,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,400 tons [70] - Production - Sales Ratio: Last week, the production - sales ratio of soda ash was 106.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91% [76] - Glass Factory Inventory: In November, the inventory days of soda ash in sample float glass factories was 24.1 days [69]

2025-12-15 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝产业链周报 01 周度观点 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 ◆ 基本面分析 山西铝土矿价格微降，河南铝土矿价格暂稳，几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比持稳于70.5美元/干吨，矿价预计将承压下行。 氧化铝运行产能周度环比上升10万吨至9590万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加10.2万吨至458.5万吨。11月中旬至12月初因技 改、技改试车检修的企业复产完成，同时部分沿海氧化铝企业临时小修，氧化铝行业运行产能整体较为平稳。电解铝运行产能周度 环比增加2万吨至4446.4万吨。减复产能方面，山西朔州能源对部分电解槽进行停槽技改升级，涉及产能4万吨左右；新疆个别铝 厂因环保管控有所减产。新投产能方面，天山铝业20万吨周内通电投产、2026年全面达产，扎铝35万吨将建成投产、2026年全 面达产。需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比下降0.1%至61.8%。整体需求逐步进入淡季，叠加铝价高位大幅波 动抑 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass for shorting on rallies [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and replenish on lows; aluminum for increased observation; nickel for waiting or shorting on rallies; tin for range trading; gold for range trading; silver for holding long positions and cautious new positions; lithium carbonate for strong - side oscillation [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC for range trading; caustic soda for temporary waiting; soda ash for temporary waiting; styrene for range trading; rubber for range trading; urea for range trading; methanol for range trading; polyolefins for weak - side oscillation [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn for strong - side oscillation; PTA for upward oscillation; apples for strong - side oscillation; red dates for weak - side oscillation [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs for a strategy of shorting on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness for far - term contracts; eggs for limited upside; corn for cautious chasing of highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; soybean meal for range operation; oils for gradually taking profit on previously established short positions [1]. Core Views - The market is influenced by a variety of factors, including macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different sectors and varieties have different trends and investment strategies due to their unique fundamentals [1][6][8]. - Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, such as oversupply in soda ash and strong supply pressure in the pig market, while others benefit from factors like improving demand or supply disruptions, like the potential support for tin prices from supply tightness [18][34]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium - to long - term bullish, with short - term possible sideways movement. Influenced by factors such as potential Fed chair appointments, Chinese economic data, and policy responses to the central economic work conference [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade sideways. Driven by factors like central bank policies, regulatory changes, and the need for year - end configuration [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended. The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal supports [8]. - **Rebar**: Range trading is advised. With low valuations and weak drivers, prices may oscillate weakly [8]. - **Glass**: Shorting on rallies is suggested. High inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases lead to a bearish outlook [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation is expected. Macro - easing expectations and long - term supply shortages support prices, but short - term over - rise has curbed consumption and increased adjustment risks [11][12]. - **Aluminum**: A rebound is possible, but increased observation is recommended. Factors include changes in bauxite prices, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities, and demand in the off - season [13]. - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. Long - term supply surplus exists, but new RKAB policies bring uncertainties [16]. - **Tin**: Range trading is recommended. Supply is tight, and downstream consumption is weak, but prices are expected to be supported [18]. - **Silver**: Sideways movement. Fed policies, economic data, and industrial demand support prices, with a strategy of holding long positions and cautious new positions [18]. - **Gold**: Range trading is advised. Fed policies and economic uncertainties lead to a bullish medium - term outlook [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Strong - side oscillation. Supply is affected by mine situations, and demand is strong, with attention needed on mine developments [20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Low - level oscillation. Weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth lead to a weak outlook, but low valuations and potential policy supports exist [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cautiously bearish, with temporary waiting. High inventory, weak demand from downstream alumina, and potential production changes are factors [23]. - **Styrene**: Sideways movement. Overseas blending logic has limited impact on the weak fundamentals, with attention on price changes [24]. - **Rubber**: Sideways movement. Uncertain supply - demand, high inventory, and weak downstream demand lead to a range - bound market [24][25]. - **Urea**: Sideways movement. Supply increases, and demand is a mix of weakening agricultural demand and strengthening industrial demand, with inventory changes affecting prices [26][27]. - **Methanol**: Sideways movement. Supply is stable, demand from methanol - to - olefins is mixed, and traditional demand is weak, with inventory decreases [27]. - **Polyolefins**: Weak - side oscillation. Supply is strong, demand is weak, especially for PE agricultural film, but inventory reduction provides some support [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Temporary waiting. Supply surplus is the main pressure, but cost support and potential supply contractions are factors [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Strong - side oscillation. Global supply - demand is relatively loose, but domestic sales and yarn prices support the market [31]. - **PTA**: Upward oscillation. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices, and PTA supply - demand is in a de - stocking phase [31][33]. - **Apples**: Strong - side oscillation. Market trading is general, with prices in different regions showing certain ranges [33]. - **Red Dates**: Weak - side oscillation. Acquisition progress is in the late stage, and enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is general [33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Sideways bottom - building. Short - term supply pressure exists, and long - term prices are affected by capacity reduction and cost changes, with different strategies for near - and far - term contracts [34]. - **Eggs**: Limited upside. Short - term spot and futures are range - bound, medium - term supply - demand improves marginally, and long - term supply pressure remains [35][36][37]. - **Corn**: Rebound. Short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and long - term demand gradually recovers, but supply - demand is relatively loose [37]. - **Soybean Meal**: Range oscillation. Near - term contracts are strong due to supply delays and de - stocking, while far - term contracts are weak due to South American production expectations [38]. - **Oils**: Soybean and palm oils for weak - side oscillation, rapeseed oil for limited rebound. Different supply - demand situations and external factors lead to different trends [38][42].

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Black: Export Policy Changes, Steel Prices Fluctuate Weakly" and is dated December 15, 2025 [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The black sector weakened collectively last week, with coking coal leading the decline, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The implementation of export license management for some steel products may affect steel exports in 2026 [5] 4. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector weakened collectively last week, with coking coal leading the decline, and the strength relationship among varieties was iron ore > hot - rolled coil > rebar > coke > coking coal [5][7] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The futures market was mainly in a downward trend, and non - ferrous metals were relatively strong [9] 03 Spot Price - The entire sector declined, and coking coal had the largest decline [16] 04 Profit and Valuation - The immediate profit improved, and the valuation of rebar futures was low [17] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel supply and demand decreased last week, and the inventory was smoothly destocked [5][6][19] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The port iron ore inventory continued to increase last week, and based on the previous shipping data, the future arrivals will still be at a high level. The iron ore supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [6][28] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The domestic raw coal production declined at a low level, but the customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and the market expectation weakened. The coking coal inventory gradually accumulated in upstream mines [6][31] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production fluctuated at a low level, and the inventory of coking plants rebounded [33] 09 Variety Spread - The profit on the futures market improved, and the ratio of rebar to coke widened [35] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for next year's economic work. The implementation of export license management for some steel products will start on January 1, 2026. The social financing scale increased in the first 11 months, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry was officially launched [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: The stock index is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to sell on rallies [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests holding a small long position; aluminum recommends reducing long positions; nickel advises waiting and seeing or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver suggests holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to be strongly volatile [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are all for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strongly volatile; PTA is expected to rise in a volatile manner; apples are expected to be strongly volatile; jujubes are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: For live pigs, short - term contracts are recommended to sell on rallies, and long - term contracts should be bullish with caution; eggs' price increase is limited; for corn, be cautious about chasing high in the short term, and grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal is for range trading; for oils and fats, the previously placed short positions can gradually take profits and exit [1] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different futures varieties have different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [1][5][7] - For most varieties, the market is in a state of volatility, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to the specific situation of each variety, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling on rallies. 3. Summary of Each Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The central economic work conference focuses on promoting economic growth and stabilizing the real estate market. The market rotation is fast, and the stock index may trade in a range, but it is bullish in the medium - to - long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: Regulatory policies and the entry of insurance funds are factors. The market's ability to break out of the current range depends on the end - of - year allocation and important meetings. The bond yields are at an attractive level, and government bonds are expected to trade in a range [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal market is under pressure with rising port inventories and falling prices. However, there are signs of low - level repair, and it is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The demand is weakening, and steel mills are reducing production. The price is at a relatively low - level valuation, and it is expected to trade in a range with short - term trading as the main strategy [7] - **Glass**: The supply is relatively stable, but the demand is weakening. The social inventory pressure is large, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The weak US labor market data and various industry factors support copper prices, but the downstream demand is shrinking. It is recommended to hold a small long position cautiously [10] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite price is under pressure, the production capacity is changing, and the demand is entering the off - season. The Fed's meeting is positive, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty, and the medium - to - long - term supply is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see or sell on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The tin ore supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply and demand. It is recommended for range trading [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Fed officials' dovish statements increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, and precious metals are supported. Silver suggests holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; gold is for range trading [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it is expected to be strongly volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of mines [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and it is expected to continue to trade at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory is high, and the demand from the main downstream is large. The production capacity changes offset each other. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic is difficult to change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [23] - **Rubber**: The raw material price may be strong, but the overseas peak - production season, rising inventory, and off - season demand limit the upside. It is recommended for range trading [23] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the demand from compound fertilizers and other industries is increasing. The inventory is in a complex state, and it is recommended for range trading [25] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the olefin industry is slightly increasing, and the traditional demand is weak. The port inventory pressure is rising, and it is expected to trade weakly [26] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is high, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is rising. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to various factors [27] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, the cost is rising, and the alkali plants are reluctant to lower prices. It is recommended to wait and see [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, but the domestic sales are fast, and the yarn price is strong, driving the cotton price to rebound. It is expected to be strongly volatile [30] - **PTA**: Geopolitical factors drive up the crude oil price, and the PTA supply - demand is in a state of destocking. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner [31] - **Apples**: The inventory apples are sold on - demand, and the trading atmosphere in different regions is different. It is expected to be strongly volatile [32] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%, and the acquisition enthusiasm of enterprises is average. It is expected to be weakly volatile [32] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand increase is not obvious. The medium - to - long - term supply is still high, and the price in the first half of next year is under pressure. It is recommended to sell short - term contracts on rallies and be bullish on long - term contracts with caution [34] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is still sufficient, and the price is supported. The medium - term supply growth slows down, and the long - term capacity reduction takes time. It is recommended to hedge on rallies in the short term [36] - **Corn**: The short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and the long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high in the short term and hedge on rallies [36] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic near - and far - month contracts have different trends. It is recommended for range trading, being bullish on near - month contracts and bearish on far - month contracts at appropriate times. Spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [37] - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trends of the three major oils and fats are different. Bean and palm oils are under pressure, and rapeseed oil's rebound is limited. It is recommended to take profits on previously placed short positions [44]