Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market volatility remains high, and it is recommended to wait and see for the market to choose a direction. Gold is in a volatile trend, and there is a risk of decline in the short - term. The US dollar index is expected to weaken. The bond market will continue to fluctuate. For various commodities, they are mostly in a state of shock, and investment decisions should be made according to specific market conditions [14][17][25][42] - Large technology companies are expanding their AI infrastructure through complex financing structures, but the market is cautious. The market is concerned about the information of the next Fed Chairman. If the candidate is dovish, it may boost the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts and improve risk appetite [13] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chairman, and Besent plans to submit a recommendation to Trump after Thanksgiving. Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Anthropic have established a strategic partnership. Anthropic will buy $30 billion worth of Azure computing power, Microsoft will invest $5 billion, and NVIDIA will invest $10 billion. The market is cautious about large technology companies' expansion of AI infrastructure, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 11 - month NAHB housing market index is 38. Fed's Barkin agrees with Powell that a December interest - rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Gold prices first declined and then rebounded, breaking through the $4000 mark. The Fed's cautious attitude towards monetary policy suppresses market sentiment. There is still room for long - short game on whether to cut interest rates in December. Gold is in a short - term volatile and weak trend, and there is a risk of decline [15][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in October is 17.3%. Beijing supports the issuance of eligible consumer infrastructure REITs. Affected by Sino - Japanese relations and the weakening of US AI guidance, the domestic market is sold off. It is recommended to reduce long positions [18][19][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump threatens to revoke ABC's TV license and says he is interviewing candidates for the next Fed Chairman. The latest ADP employment data shows that the US labor market is weakening, the market risk appetite is decreasing, and the US dollar is weakening. It is expected that the most tightening stage of liquidity may have passed [21][22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 407.5 billion yuan, with a net investment of 370 million yuan. The bond market continues to fluctuate narrowly. The power to break the deadlock in the bond market is insufficient, and it will continue to fluctuate. It is appropriate to short - sell at high positions. The inter - period spread may widen slightly [25][26][27] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of November 15, 2025/26, 325 sugar mills in India have started crushing, with an increase of 181 year - on - year. The ISO predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. China's sugar imports in October are 750,000 tons, exceeding market expectations. It is expected that the import volume will decrease in November - December. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [28][29][31] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Palm oil industry experts are optimistic about the plantation industry. China's palm oil imports in October are 220,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The market is bullish on palm oil prices due to supply shortages and biodiesel demand. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing long positions and pay attention to the 9000 pressure level [32][33] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased slightly. Brazil's soybean sowing is 69% complete. NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high. The cost of domestic imported soybeans has increased, but the increase in China's procurement of US soybeans reduces the possibility of domestic soybean shortages. The soybean meal futures price is weaker than the external market. It is recommended to pay attention to China's actual procurement of US soybeans and South American production expectations [34][36][37] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The price of jujubes in Xinjiang has been adjusted downwards. The futures price of jujubes has risen for two consecutive days. The acquisition of jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the upstream acquisition situation [38][39] 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In October, the production of China's four major household appliances decreased year - on - year, and the export of steel plates decreased year - on - year. The price of steel has rebounded in shock. The contradiction in the fundamentals of finished steel has not been fundamentally alleviated. The upward space of steel prices is limited. It is recommended to treat steel prices with a shock mentality [40][42][43] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and cassava starch makes the substitution advantage of corn starch slightly appear. The profit of deep - processing enterprises has declined slightly, but the downstream acceptance of price increases has increased. The 01 futures price difference has been repaired. It is recommended to conduct band operations [44][46] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is consolidating at a high level. The price in the Northeast is stable, the price in North China is stable, and the price in the sales area has increased slightly. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has fallen after rising. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the grain sales progress in North China and the wheat auction situation [46][47] 2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the East China market is stable and strong. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the downstream coking profit is deteriorating. The spot sentiment has回调, and the coal price increase has narrowed. The supply recovery is slow. The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [48][49] 2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The inventory of steam coal in Beigang has increased slightly. The increase in coal prices may end, and it may fluctuate at a high level after the inventory turns around. The actual thermal power consumption in November is average. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual winter consumption in December to determine whether coal prices will rise again [49][50] 2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Genmin has obtained approximately A$25.7 million in financing for the African Baniaka iron ore project. Iron ore prices are in a shock market. The supply is high, and the downstream steel production is declining moderately. It is expected that the molten iron will decline at a rate of about 10,000 tons per week from mid - November to mid - December. It is expected to continue the shock market [51] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 17, the LME 0 - 3 lead showed a discount of $16.88/ton. The LME inventory decreased, and the cash spread increased. The Shanghai lead continued to decline in shock. It is recommended to short at high positions in the short - term and wait and see for arbitrage and internal - external trading [52][53] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 17, the LME 0 - 3 zinc showed a premium of $104.97/ton. The LME inventory increased, and the cash spread decreased. The Shanghai zinc may enter a high - level shock adjustment stage. It is recommended to hold short positions in the short - term, pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities, and short - term internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [54] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Rainbow Mining is considering a joint - venture copper mine with Newmont in Papua New Guinea. Freeport plans to resume large - scale production of its Indonesian copper mine in the second quarter of next year. The short - term macro factors are negative for copper prices, but the fundamentals provide support. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low positions in the medium - term and wait and see for arbitrage [55][57][58] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Hunan Yueneng starts the construction of a 20,000 - ton battery recycling and 30,000 - ton lithium carbonate project. The lithium carbonate market has strong short - term support, but the power demand is expected to weaken from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. It is not recommended to chase long positions. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high positions after the demand weakens and project resumption is clear [59][60][61] 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Ramu's Q3 production report shows an increase in nickel and cobalt production and sales. The nickel market is technically weak, and the high - level inventory of pure nickel continues to accumulate. The price of nickel may continue to be weak in the short - term or repair the valuation according to the reduction of smelting production. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesia's supply - contraction measures in the medium - term [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API US crude oil inventory has increased. Oil prices have rebounded, possibly affected by the expected short - term sanctions on Russian supply. The US inventory level is still relatively low. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [65][66][67] 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 18, the CEA closing price was 61.76 yuan/ton, up 1.53%. The new quota allocation plan may reverse the carbon market supply - demand structure, and the CEA price has strong upward momentum. Pay attention to the release of demand [67][68] 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - The polyethylene social sample inventory has decreased slightly. The PE fundamentals are lackluster. If there is a rebound, it is recommended to short. If there is no further negative news, the price will fluctuate in the future. It is recommended to wait and see [69] 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market is weakly sorted. The PVC futures price is down, and the inventory is high. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is suppressed. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and pay attention to long - term layout opportunities for far - month contracts after the price drops excessively [70][72] 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Shipping companies have jointly opened a new route from the Far East to the Red Sea. The spot market is weak, and the supply pressure in December is high. The 02 contract lacks the power to rise sharply, but with the approaching of the long - term contract season, the shipping companies' price - holding agreement may strengthen. It is recommended to treat the current market with a shock - range mentality [73][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's port congestion situation continues to improve, with port turnover times at historical low levels. Southeast Asian ports have also seen a significant improvement in congestion, and the operational fluctuations have converged [2]. - The negative impact of previous strikes on European ports has basically been cleared, but there are still concerns. There is a risk of strikes in Belgium in late November, and the railway at Hamburg Port remains closed, posing a risk of increased congestion [2]. - North American ports are operating well [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Data Review - **Asian Ports**: - In Yangshan Port, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 0 hours/23.9 hours, with 2 ships at anchor/8 ships berthed. In Waigaoqiao, it's 0 hours/20.7 hours, with 12 ships at anchor/24 ships berthed. In Ningbo Port, it's 0 hours/23.1 hours, with 7 ships at anchor/21 ships berthed. In Qingdao, it's 0 hours/66.1 hours. In Singapore Port, it's 0 hours/29.5 hours, with 6 ships at anchor/48 ships berthed. In Port Klang, it's 0 hours/26.7 hours, with 7 ships at anchor/27 ships berthed [2]. - The average turnover times are about 1.0 days in Yangshan, Ningbo, and Yantian Ports. The average time in port is 1.2 days in Singapore Port and 1.1 days in Port Klang [2]. - **European Ports**: - In Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremen, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/43.4 hours, 0 hours/40.3 hours, 1.1 hours/44.0 hours, 0 hours/39.0 hours respectively. The numbers of ships at anchor/berthed are 6 ships/29 ships, 10 ships/15 ships, 0 ships/13 ships respectively. In Valencia, it's 0 hours/33.4 hours, with 7 ships at anchor/10 ships berthed [2]. - The average time in port is about 1.7 days in Antwerp, 1.8 days in Rotterdam, 1.8 days in Hamburg, and 1.6 days in Bremen [2]. - **North American Ports**: - In Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Tacoma, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/94.7 hours, 0 hours/97.1 hours, 0 hours/94.0 hours respectively. In Long Beach and Los Angeles, there are 0 ships at anchor and 19 ships berthed. In New York, Savannah, and Norfolk, it's 0 hours/36.6 hours, 0 hours/34.0 hours, 0 hours/22.7 hours respectively. In New York, there are 0 ships at anchor/8 ships berthed. In Houston Port, it's 0 hours/62.0 hours [2]. Asian Port Dynamic Tracking - The data shows the scale of container ships in port in China and Southeast Asia, including the number of ships at anchor and berthed in different ports over time. It also presents the average waiting time, berthing time, and total time in port for ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese container ports [9][10][17]. European Port Dynamic Tracking - The report shows the scale of container ships in port in Europe, including the number of ships at anchor and berthed in different ports in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean/Black Sea regions over time. It also presents the average waiting time, berthing time, and total time in port for ocean - going container ships in Northwest European and Mediterranean container ports [20][21][28]. North American Port Dynamic Tracking - The data shows the scale of container ships in port in North America, including the number of ships at anchor and berthed in different ports in North America over time. It also presents the average waiting time, berthing time, and total time in port for ocean - going container ships in American container ports [38][39][40]. Large - Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - It monitors the arrival of large - scale container ships in Yangshan Port, Ningbo Port, and Singapore Port, divided by different ship sizes. It also tracks the arrival of 1.2w + container ships of different alliances in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean regions. Additionally, it monitors the passage of container ships through the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal [47][50][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is divided on future interest rate cuts, with market risk appetite difficult to repair, and the market is waiting for non - farm payroll data and NVIDIA's earnings report. [13] - Gold prices are in a downward trend, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut by the Fed is decreasing. [16] - The US dollar shows a short - term volatile trend as the market focuses more on hawkish statements. [21] - The domestic stock market is in a volatile adjustment, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has increased. [24] - The bond market is slightly stronger but is likely to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term. [27] - Most commodity markets show volatile trends, with different supply - demand situations and price trends in various sectors. [28][32][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials are divided on future interest rate cuts. Market risk appetite is difficult to repair, and it is recommended to wait and see. [13][14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US November New York Fed Manufacturing Index is higher than expected. Gold prices continue to fall, and it is recommended to observe whether the $4000 mark can be held. [15][16][17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement on Venezuela and Waller's support for a rate cut. The Fed is divided, and the US dollar shows a short - term volatile trend. [18][20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The domestic stock market is in a volatile adjustment, with a slight reduction in trading volume. It is recommended to stop buying long positions and consider reducing exposure if the market continues to correct. [23][24][25] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market is slightly stronger but is likely to remain in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset. [27][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Palm oil inventory increases, and exports decline. It is recommended to wait and see and be cautious about bottom - fishing. [28][29][30] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices rebound, but the fundamental contradiction is not fundamentally alleviated. It is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset. [32][33] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - International steam coal prices are strong. Coal prices are supported but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan mark. [34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Deep - processing enterprise profits decline slightly. It is recommended to conduct band operations. [36] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company acquires an iron ore project. Iron ore prices are in a volatile pattern with support from downstream valuation and pressure from fundamentals. [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is strong. Short - term fundamentals change little, and prices are in a volatile pattern. [39][40] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Xinjiang red dates are almost off the tree. The futures price is slightly up, and it is recommended to focus on price competition and acquisition progress in the production area. [40][41] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices rise. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the grain - selling progress in North China and wheat auctions. [42][43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A company's US battery factory plans to start production. Polysilicon prices are expected to remain stable in November, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities. [44][45][46] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon industry meeting may determine production - cut targets. It is recommended to go long on industrial silicon at low prices. [47][48] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Lead inventory increases before delivery. It is recommended to short at high prices and wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading. [49][50] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production increases. Zinc prices may enter a high - level volatile adjustment stage. It is recommended to hold short positions, focus on medium - term positive arbitrage, and short - term cross - border arbitrage. [52][53][54] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A gold company plans to split, and a copper mine in Congo has an accident. Copper prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage. [55][56][57] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increases. Nickel prices are under pressure in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on Indonesia's supply - contraction measures. [58][59][60] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company submits a lithium project feasibility study report. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but it is not recommended to chase the rise. [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Sanctions on Russian oil companies may have a long - term negative impact. Oil prices are in a short - term volatile pattern. [63][64] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt inventory decreases. Prices are expected to be stable and weak in the short term. [64][65] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong has a downward - moving trading center. The market is expected to be in a weak volatile pattern. [66][67] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - A pesticide standardization committee is established. Urea prices are in a volatile pattern, and the 01 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1560 - 1760 yuan/ton. [68][69][70] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports increases. It is recommended to wait and see for pure benzene and styrene. [71][72][74] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe has a general trend. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and a bearish view is taken in the medium term. [75] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market fall. The market is in a multi - empty game, and it is recommended to wait and see. [76] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - CMA CGM releases its Q3 results. The 12 - 02 spread has converged, and the market is expected to return to fundamental logic. [77][78][79]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The shipping industry for the European route is rated as "bearish" in 2025 [6] Core Viewpoints - The continuous development of the China-Europe Railway Express is changing the traditional China-Europe logistics pattern, evolving from a supplementary role to a competitive force against the shipping system, especially on European routes [10] - The substitution effect of the China-Europe Railway Express on European route shipping will deepen, and the "asymmetric substitution" relationship between the two needs close attention, which may significantly impact European route cargo volume [5][48][49] Summary by Directory 1. Network Development Promotes Comprehensive Competitiveness Improvement - In 2024, the westbound channel's annual departures exceeded 11,000 trains, with container transport volume reaching 1.14 million TEUs, up 12.9% and 12.5% year-on-year respectively, higher than the global shipping trade's 2.3% annual growth rate. As of 2024, the freight volume of the China-Europe Railway Express accounted for 6.3% of the total Asia-Europe shipping trade volume [11] - The "Three Channels and Five Ports" network layout provides systematic advantages. The westbound channel undertakes over 70% of the transport tasks, the middle channel plays a diversion role in winter, and the eastbound channel connects Northeast China with European Russia and Nordic countries. The newly opened west 2 channel saw explosive growth in 2024 [15] - The five ports have evolved into comprehensive hubs, and the "one-time inspection, full-line clearance" mode improves cross-border transport efficiency. The domestic and overseas networks cover many cities, shortening the delivery time to European inland areas by 7 - 10 days compared to shipping [18][23] 2. Differentiated Substitution Effect Driven by Price Factors - There is an asymmetric substitution relationship between the China-Europe Railway Express and shipping. When shipping prices rise sharply, high-value goods requiring high transport timeliness and supply chain stability will shift to the railway, as seen during the 2020 - 2021 pandemic and the 2024 Red Sea crisis [24] - The asymmetric nature lies in that the impact of rising shipping prices on the demand for the railway express is much greater than the impact of railway price adjustments on the return of shipping demand. This is due to the different core demands and cost - accounting logics of the two customer groups [29][31] 3. Multi - Dimensional Market Penetration and Structural Characteristics - In terms of cargo value, high - value products prefer the China-Europe Railway Express due to their high requirements for transport timeliness and reliability, while low - value commodities mainly use shipping. The proportion of high - value goods transported by railway in EU imports from China is about 5%, compared to 3% for low - value goods [32] - Geographically, the time - saving advantage of the railway express is more prominent for inland countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The difference in implicit costs between regions further strengthens the sensitivity of high - value goods to shipping price fluctuations [33][39] 4. Continuous Evolution of Structural Adjustment and Development Trends - The proportion of low - value goods in the China-Europe Railway Express's cargo structure is rising, while that of high - value goods is slightly falling, and the gap between them is narrowing. Geopolitical risks and falling shipping prices have slowed the shift of high - value goods to the railway [42] - The growth of low - value goods' railway transport demand is driven by policy subsidies, the "rail - sea - rail" multimodal transport mode of the west 2 channel, and the optimization of the railway express's operation mode [44] 5. Summary and Outlook - In 2024, the China-Europe Railway Express's cargo volume accounted for 6.3% of the total Asia - Europe trade volume, indicating it has become an important force affecting the China - Europe logistics pattern. Its relationship with shipping is shifting from simple complementarity to a "complementary - competitive" dynamic balance [48] - The substitution effect of the China - Europe Railway Express on European route shipping will deepen. The railway express's internal structural adjustment will continue, and the market shares of high - and low - value goods will become more balanced [48] - When European route shipping prices rise by over 50%, 3 - 5% of the cargo is expected to shift to the railway, with high - value goods' transfer ratio possibly reaching 8 - 10%. The China - Europe Railway Express's penetration in the Mediterranean coastal European inland areas will increase, and its unit transport cost is expected to decrease by 10 - 15% in the next three years [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental performance of the photovoltaic glass industry remains weak. Although the market price is temporarily stable, there may be further adjustments in the future. The industry's gross profit margin has turned negative, and the supply - demand gap is expected to widen [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: Last week, one production line started feeding materials and one was ignited, increasing the overall supply. The current in - production capacity is 89,380 tons per day with a capacity utilization rate of 68.35%. One production line is expected to undergo cold repair this week, reducing capacity by 1,200 tons per day [1][7]. - Demand: Last week, the industry demand was weak, and many photovoltaic glass enterprises couldn't achieve production - sales balance. Component manufacturers are using previously stocked glass, and November and December are seasonal off - peak demand months, so short - term demand will continue to decline [1][7]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers continued to increase. With supply rising and demand expected to fall, the industry's supply - demand gap is expected to widen [1][7]. - Gross Profit Margin: Last week, the gross profit margin of the photovoltaic glass industry turned negative, currently about - 0.96% [2][7]. 3.2 Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 3.2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of November 14, the mainstream price of domestic 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass was 13 yuan per square meter, unchanged from last week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 19.5 yuan per square meter, also unchanged from last week [1][8]. 3.2.2 Supply - side - Last week, one production line started feeding materials and one was ignited, increasing the overall supply. The current in - production capacity is 89,380 tons per day with a capacity utilization rate of 68.35%. One production line is expected to undergo cold repair this week, reducing capacity by 1,200 tons per day [1][7][11]. 3.2.3 Demand - side - Last week, the industry demand was weak, and many photovoltaic glass enterprises couldn't achieve production - sales balance. Component manufacturers are using previously stocked glass, and November and December are seasonal off - peak demand months, so short - term demand will continue to decline [1][7][20]. 3.2.4 Inventory - side - Last week, the inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers continued to increase. With supply rising and demand expected to fall, the industry's supply - demand gap is expected to widen [1][7][23]. 3.2.5 Cost - profit side - Last week, the gross profit margin of the photovoltaic glass industry turned negative, currently about - 0.96% [2][7][26]. 3.2.6 Trade - side - From January to September 2025, China's photovoltaic glass exports increased by 19.7% compared with the same period in 2024. The export of photovoltaic glass remains prosperous, and overseas installation demand is strong [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's hawkish remarks have dampened hopes of a December rate cut, leading to tightened global market liquidity and significant market declines on Friday. The future rate - cut path still has room for debate, and market volatility remains high [2][15]. - In October, most domestic economic indicators showed a slowdown in growth, which has affected various markets such as A - shares and the bond market [3][25]. - Different commodity markets have their own supply - demand and price trends. For example, in the copper market, short - term macro factors may limit copper prices, while fundamentals may turn into a supporting factor [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials continue to make hawkish remarks, and the market is pricing in a pause in rate cuts in December. The future rate - cut path still has room for debate with the release of economic data next week. The US stock market maintains a high - level oscillation [15]. - Investment advice: Due to high market volatility, it is recommended to observe more and act less, waiting for the market to choose a direction [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US adjusts agricultural product tariffs and reduces tariffs on Swiss products. Gold prices fell significantly on Friday, remaining in a short - term consolidation range. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Fed officials' hawkish statements have led to tightened global market liquidity, significant market declines on Friday, and the US dollar index is oscillating. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Three factors are disturbing the A - share market: increased domestic economic pressure, tense Sino - Japanese relations, and overseas companies' demand for supply - chain localization. The probability of a high - level adjustment in the market is increasing. - Investment advice: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indexes [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Economic data in October was generally weaker than expected. The bond market is in a narrow - range oscillation as it has already anticipated weak data, and there is a lack of new positive drivers. - Investment advice: It is recommended to approach the market with an oscillation mindset [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal was stable on November 14. The overall coal price is oscillating around 850 yuan. Supply is tight, and demand is at a seasonal high, so the price has strong support but is unlikely to break through 900 yuan. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to be strongly supported but difficult to break through 900 yuan [34]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Norwegian iron ore producer Rana Gruber plans to produce 67% high - grade iron ore by 2029. The iron ore market has weak demand, and the price is expected to oscillate. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain flat in the second half of November and decline slightly in December, maintaining an oscillating market [36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to test B50 biodiesel in December. The US is urged to finalize biofuel policies. Palm oil prices may be weak due to policy uncertainties, while soybean oil prices are expected to remain firm. - Investment advice: For palm oil, do not prematurely trade potential positive expectations. For soybean oil, wait for the result of US biofuel policies [40]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - In October, Brazilian sugar production data was higher than expected, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio is decreasing. The domestic sugar market is expected to have a strong start to the new season, but the upside is limited. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, and the 1 - 5 contract long - spread can be held [45]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The USDA November report is bearish for cotton, but the market has already priced it in. The domestic cotton market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA lowered the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season. US soybean crushing demand is strong, but the improvement in exports is uncertain. The domestic soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is in an oscillating state. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to China's actual purchases of US soybeans and South American production expectations [54]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In early November, the daily output of key steel enterprises increased. Steel prices are oscillating without a clear trend. The market needs more steel mill production cuts. - Investment advice: Approach steel prices with an oscillating mindset [60]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. The starch market has positive profits, and the inventory has slightly decreased. - Investment advice: The 01 futures price difference is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [62]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The selling progress of corn in Northeast and North China is relatively fast, but the actual supply - demand situation is still tight. The price is expected to be affected by selling pressure in the future. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and there may be opportunities to short at high prices after the situation becomes clear [64]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in Xinjiang is weakly stable. The futures price has declined, and the inventory has increased. - Investment advice: It is recommended to observe carefully until the harvesting is completed and pay attention to price negotiations and purchase progress in the production area [67]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Polish copper producer KGHM's Q3 net profit increased by 80%. Short - term macro factors may limit copper prices, while fundamentals may turn into a supporting factor. - Investment advice: It is recommended to buy on dips for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [71]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The first TOPCon + perovskite tandem solar cell was launched. The polysilicon spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price is expected to oscillate between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. - Investment advice: Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [74]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Organic silicon monomer manufacturers are jointly raising prices and considering production cuts. Industrial silicon prices are expected to have a clear lower limit, and it is recommended to buy on dips [77]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount. The supply side is in the early stage of repair, and the demand side is weak. There is a risk of low inventory in the long - term. - Investment advice: The industrial side can look for opportunities to short on rallies, and wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading [79]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Peruvian zinc concentrate production decreased in September. The LME zinc market has a risk of a short - squeeze, and the domestic zinc market is expected to enter a high - level oscillating adjustment stage. - Investment advice: Hold short positions in the short - term, look for long - spread opportunities in the medium - term, and pay attention to cross - border arbitrage opportunities [83]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The lithium price has risen recently, but short - term upward movement is limited. In the medium - term, demand may weaken. - Investment advice: Conduct range - trading in the short - term and look for opportunities to short on rallies in the medium - term [86]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia may restrict nickel smelting investment. The nickel market has weak fundamentals, and the price may continue to be weak in the short - term. - Investment advice: In the short - term, the price may continue to decline or rebound based on production cuts. In the medium - term, pay attention to Indonesia's policies [89]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is oscillating. The increase in heating demand in winter will support the carbon price. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term [92]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has increased, and the Russian Black Sea port was attacked, affecting oil exports. Geopolitical conflicts may support oil prices in the short - term. - Investment advice: Geopolitical conflicts may support oil prices in the short - term [95]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - International methanol production and capacity utilization have increased. The methanol price fell due to the decline in coking coal futures. The theoretical downward space is at least 100 yuan/ton. - Investment advice: The price is expected to reach 2000 yuan/ton [99]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories have increased export quotes. The market is in a seasonal off - season, and there is a risk of supply - demand deterioration in the future. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short the far - month processing margin and follow the movement of polyester raw material prices [102]. 3.2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - ONE has cooperated with Chinese ports to promote green shipping. The EC2602 contract's delivery date has been adjusted, and its valuation may be revised. - Investment advice: The 12 - 02 contract spread is expected to return to par or a slight premium [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity futures market shows a differentiated pattern. Precious metals are generally volatile, some non - ferrous metals show bearish signals while lithium carbonate is rising, black - series commodities have mixed signals, energy - chemical products are also differentiated, and some agricultural products show bullish signs. The overall market is mainly volatile with unclear trend - based market conditions [1]. - The stock index futures market is under pressure, with the Shanghai 50 futures showing bearish signals and the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures showing strong bearish signals. The bond futures market is mainly volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1有色及贵金属板块 - The precious metal sector is generally volatile, and some non - ferrous metal varieties such as lead, stainless steel, etc. show bearish signals, while others are volatile [9]. - Lithium carbonate LC2601 has risen this week, trading above the MA60 moving average. It faces long - liquidation pressure near 90,000 yuan/ton, but the position is stable, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the MA60 in the short term [11]. 3.2黑色及航运板块 - Iron ore, coking coal, manganese silicon, wire rod, and coke in the black - series and shipping sectors show bearish signals, while European container shipping shows volatile signals, and other black - series varieties are volatile [19]. - Rebar RB2601 has risen this week, with technical indicators showing bullish momentum. The closing price has re - entered the support range of 3050 - 3070 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the risk of price rebound [23]. 3.3能化板块 - In the energy sector, crude oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, while others are volatile. In the chemical sector, staple fiber, ethylene glycol, and bottle chips show bullish signals, while plastic, propylene, synthetic rubber, methanol, and pulp show bearish signals, and others are volatile [29]. - PTA2601 has risen this week, approaching the MA60 moving average and the upper - track of the descending channel, with greater downward pressure than upward pressure. It is expected to be volatile next week [32]. 3.4农产品板块 - In the agricultural product sector, soybeans No. 1, soybean meal, corn starch, and logs show bullish signals, while soybean oil, cotton, live pigs, sugar, and cotton yarn show bearish signals, and others are volatile [38]. - Soybean meal M2601 has risen this week, breaking through the MA60 moving average. There is still strong selling power above the closing price on Friday, and it has the momentum to continue rising [42]. 3.5股指期货板块 - The Shanghai 50 futures show bearish signals, and the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures show strong bearish signals [48]. - The IC CSI 500 futures are mainly volatile. The weekly line has entered a volatile state, and the daily line shows short - term volatility. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations near the MA60 moving average and the middle - track of the Bollinger Bands [50]. 3.6国债期货板块 - The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are mainly volatile [55]. - The T 10 - year treasury bond futures have short - term downward pressure, but the medium - term bullish trend has not ended. The price is mainly volatile around the middle - track of the Bollinger Bands [58][59].

热点报告-国债期货 供需均走弱，然债市已脱敏 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 国债：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 11 | 月 | 16 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★10 月供需两端均在放缓 经济数据与金融、PMI 等数据相互印证，10 月的经济增速有所 放缓。经济数据走弱的原因是多方面的：基数抬高、10 月节假 期相对较长、经济内生性走弱趋势尚未发生变化，而近期增量 政策相对有限，部分政策的效力也尚未充分显现。具体来看， 1）1-10 月固投累计增速为-1.7%，前值为-0.5%。下半年政策的 思路更倾向调结构，财政支出向民生、化债、科技等领域倾 斜，基建增速下降。9-10 月增量稳地产政策相对有限，地产投 资仍在寻底。终端需求走弱叠加反内卷政策推进，国内制造业 投资增速也在下滑。2）10 月社零增速录得 2.9%，前值为 3.0%。社零增速回落受高基数影响较大，结构上国补类商品社 零增速多数下降，但假期较长使得餐饮等消费增速上升。3）10 月工增 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a weekly strategy report from the Dongzheng Derivatives Research Institute, covering stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity CTA strategies [1][38][51] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Market Review - The market declined last week, with the electronics sector contributing the main decline in each index [3] - IH and IF trading volumes increased week-on-week, while IC and IM trading volumes decreased. The basis weakened [4] Strategy Recommendations - For the basis strategy, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of calendar spread arbitrage when the discount narrows due to market sentiment. The rollover strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4] - For the arbitrage strategy, in the calendar spread arbitrage, the annualized basis rate, cash - and - carry, and momentum factor strategies were profitable last week, with returns of 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.2% respectively (6 - times leverage). The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthesis strategy had a net profit of 0.1% last week, and the latest signal recommends 50% long IF and short IC, 100% long IM and short IC [5] - For the timing strategy, the daily timing strategy was generally profitable last week, with the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 having returns of 0.4%, 0.6%, 1.1%, and - 0.7% respectively. The timing model's latest signal shows a significant increase in bullish sentiment [6] Group 3: Treasury Bond Futures Strategy Focus - For the basis and calendar spread, the IRR of treasury bond futures declined this week, and the calendar spread was volatile and strong. The space for cash - and - carry arbitrage is limited, and it is expected to move sideways [40] - For interest rate timing and hedging signals, the interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, and it is recommended to choose high - duration varieties for hedging [40][41] - For the futures timing strategy, the multi - factor timing strategy signal is neutral, with the basis factor and high - frequency factor being mainly bullish, and the spread factor and volume - price factor being mainly bearish [40][44] - For the futures cross - variety arbitrage strategy, the latest signals of the treasury bond futures cross - variety arbitrage strategies TS - T and T - TL are neutral [40][47] Group 4: Commodity CTA Factor Performance - Last week, the performance of various commodity varieties in the market varied. Precious metal silver led the rise due to renewed risk - aversion sentiment, and lithium carbonate rose 7%, while coking coal, glass, and red dates led the decline. Most commodity factors had good increases, with the momentum trend and term structure factors with significant long - term logic having an average increase of over 1%, and the value factor rising nearly 2%. The position - related factor had a slight increase, the spot - futures basis factor had a slight decline, and the warehouse receipt factor was basically flat [52][54] Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, and maximum drawdown. For example, the CW FT strategy has an annualized return of 9.4%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.61, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81% [53]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - London gold rose 2.1% to $4084 per ounce, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.14%, inflation expectation was 2.3%, real interest rate slightly rose to 1.83%, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 99.3, the S&P 500 index rose 0.08%, the RMB appreciated, and the premium of Shanghai gold increased [2] - Gold price first rose and then fell. Initially, it was pushed up by the expectation of the Fed's balance sheet expansion. However, later, due to factors such as the end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and the cooling of the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, the gold price remained in a consolidation phase [3] - The easing of the US foreign tariff policy led to a decline in risk aversion [4] - In the short term, the gold price has not escaped the consolidation pattern, and there is a risk of correction. The domestic gold maintains a small premium [5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) decreased by 44.2% week-on-week, the domestic and foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) increased by 493.2% week-on-week, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 0.9% week-on-week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.92% week-on-week, the SPDR ETF holdings increased by 0.19% week-on-week, the CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.7% week-on-week, the US dollar index decreased by 0.26% week-on-week, the SOFR increased by 2.3% week-on-week, the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate increased by 0.92% week-on-week, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.1% week-on-week, the VIX volatility index increased by 3.9% week-on-week, the gold cross-market arbitrage trading increased by 1.5% week-on-week, and the US 10-year real interest rate increased by 1.3% week-on-week [12] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4%, the oil price fell 0.1%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.3% [18] - The US dollar index fell 0.3%, the US Treasury yield rose to 4.14%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.08%, and the VIX index slightly rose to 19.8 [19] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets mostly rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising 0.08%, and developing country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.18% [23] - The real interest rate fluctuated and closed at 1.83%, the gold price rose 2.1%, the spot commodity index closed higher, and the US dollar index fell 0.3% [25] - The euro appreciated 0.47%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.08%, the yen depreciated 0.74%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 1.39% [29] - US and German bonds rose, with a US - German yield spread of 1.42%, the UK Treasury yield was 4.5%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.7% [30] - The US dollar index fell 0.31% to 99.3, and most non - US currencies appreciated [31] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The data on gold speculative net long positions was suspended due to the government shutdown, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings slightly rose to 1044 tons [34] - The RMB slightly appreciated, the premium of Shanghai gold increased, gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio decreased to 78 [37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Important data and events include Japan's Q3 GDP, the US November New York Fed manufacturing index, the US November NAHB housing market index, the UK and Eurozone October CPI, the US weekly initial jobless claims, the US November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US September non - farm payrolls, Japan's October CPI, and the US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [38]