专题报告——股指期货 关于存款搬家的思考 4、居民有超额存款并不意味着一定要搬家，搬家是结果而非原 因，存款搬家之所以能够发生的核心逻辑在于股市的预期回报发 生了变化。而这种改变源于国家队入场截断了股市的下行风险。 当前存款搬家仍处在较初始阶段，高净值群体、高风险偏好群体 先进行搬家，因而表现为对微盘股、北证 50、创业板等高波动板 块和热点题材的单边拉升。 ★投资建议：股指或进入高位震荡状态，可适度止盈 理论上 44.3 万亿元的超额存款均可搬家，但从中长期看，存款搬 家仍需要依靠股市基本面修复。我们认为当前更应关注宏观基本 面的压力，而非仅依靠存款搬家的流动性逻辑对股市进行定价。 短期内股指或进入高位震荡状态，建议缩减多头敞口，适度止盈。 ★风险提示： 数据估算误差。 [★Ta中bl国e_居Su民mm储a蓄ry]与存款的基本情况 1、储蓄和存款是不同的概念。储蓄等于收入减去支出，反映居 民消费行为，存款则反映金融行为。所谓超额储蓄，即储蓄总额 超出趋势值的部分。经估算，2020-2024 中国居民积累的超额储 蓄约为 2 万亿元，其成因即源于收入下降，也源于支出下降。 股 指 2、新冠疫情后，中国居民存款 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry silicon: Volatility [5] - Polysilicon: Volatility [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose significantly this week, and the polysilicon spot price was firm. In the short - term, the industrial silicon futures are expected to have a higher probability of rising when buying at low prices, and the polysilicon futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [4][11][12] - Different sectors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon industry chain have different price trends and inventory situations. For example, the price of industrial silicon increased, the price of polysilicon futures fell slightly, and the prices of organic silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also showed different trends [9][10][11] Summary According to the Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 560 yuan/ton to 9305 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - passed 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 increased by 200 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton. The polysilicon PS2511 contract decreased by 910 yuan/ton to 52700 yuan/ton [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Rose Against the Trend, Polysilicon Spot was Firm - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract rose. There were no new furnace start - ups or shutdowns this week. Southern regions may enter the dry season in late October, with Yunnan's operation dropping to over 20 units and Sichuan's to about 35 units. The social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons. 9 - 10 months may accumulate about 50,000 tons of inventory, and 11 - 12 months may reduce about 60,000 tons, but the volume is not significant [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price increased slightly. Some devices were shut down for maintenance, the weekly output was 48,600 tons, a decrease of 0.61% week - on - week, and the inventory was 45,800 tons, a decrease of 3.17% week - on - week. The price is expected to fluctuate [11] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated and declined. The quotes of first - tier manufacturers' dense materials were 55 yuan/kg, second - and third - tier manufacturers' were 52 yuan/kg, and the new order quote of granular materials increased to 51 yuan/kg. The production limit was not fully implemented, but the sales limit started. The inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 204,000 tons. The spot price may remain flat or increase slightly [3][12] - **Silicon Wafers**: Some models stabilized at new quotes. The production schedule in September was 57.5GW, an increase of 1.5GW month - on - month. The inventory was 16.87GW, an increase of 0.32GW. The price is expected to remain stable [14] - **Battery Cells**: The quotes increased further. The production schedule in September was 60GW, an increase of 1.8GW month - on - month. The overseas demand supported the price increase of M10 models, but the new price may be close to the limit for domestic component enterprises [14] - **Components**: The price remained basically stable. The inventory was 34.5GW, an increase of 0.4GW. The production schedule in September may decrease by about 1GW. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [15] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: The reasons for the sharp rise in the market are not core. The cost will increase during the dry season. Buying at low prices has a higher probability of winning, but chasing high prices requires caution [4][17] - **Polysilicon**: The market may still bet on the progress of platform companies in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options after the 11 - contract rebounds and the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4][17] 4. Hot News Sorting - On September 16, the "Energy Consumption Quota per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium" and other national standards solicited opinions, stipulating the energy consumption quota levels of polysilicon per unit product [13][18] - On September 16, GCL Technology announced a placement of 4.736 billion shares to promote the adjustment of polysilicon production capacity [18] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly production, and inventory [20][23][28] - **Organic Silicon**: Includes data such as DMC spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [30][31] - **Polysilicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly gross profits, and factory inventory [33][37] - **Silicon Wafers**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [38][43][45] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and overseas sales factory inventory [46][49][51] - **Components**: Includes data such as spot prices, factory inventory, and monthly production [54][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market remained at a low level this week, with the average daily trading volume and open interest decreasing by 11.80% and 11.10% respectively compared to the previous week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed trends, with 30 varieties closing lower. The varieties with higher weekly increases included industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and caustic soda; those with higher weekly decreases included red dates, live pigs, and soybean meal. Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. Some varieties' implied volatility is at a historical high, while others are at a historical low [2][16]. - The PCR of trading volume for some varieties is at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment; for others, it is at a historical low, showing a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The PCR of open interest for some varieties is at a historical high, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment; for others, it is at a historical low, showing accumulated bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - From September 15 to September 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.28 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.19 million lots, with环比 decreases of 11.80% and 11.10% respectively. The actively traded varieties included silver, eggs, and glass. The varieties with significant trading volume growth were p - xylene (+405%) and alumina (+141%); those with significant trading volume decline were crude oil (-80%), lithium carbonate (-71%), and urea (-60%). The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal, rebar, and soda ash. The varieties with rapid open - interest growth were p - xylene (+52%), apples (+38%), and alumina (+34%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options - **Underlying Price Movements**: The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed trends, with 30 varieties closing lower. The varieties with higher weekly increases included industrial silicon (+6.40%), lithium carbonate (+3.93%), and caustic soda (+3.16%); those with higher weekly decreases included red dates (-4.35%), live pigs (-3.24%), and soybean meal (-2.11%) [2][16]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 31 varieties' current implied volatility was below the 50% historical percentile in the past year. Varieties with implied volatility at a historical high included industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and ferrosilicon; those at a historical low included zinc, nickel, urea, and soybean and rapeseed meal [2][16]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The PCR of trading volume for styrene, cotton, LPG, and bottle chips was at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment. The PCR of trading volume for palm oil, caustic soda, iron ore, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil was at a historical low, showing a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The PCR of open interest for lithium carbonate, soda ash, and bottle chips was at a historical high, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment; for rebar, soybean oil, live pigs, and alumina, it was at a historical low, showing accumulated bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20]. - **Energy**: Relevant charts and data sources are provided for crude oil, including total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR [21][23][24]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [27][28][34]. - **Caustic Soda**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [36][37][38]. - **Glass**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [43][44][45]. - **Soda Ash**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [51][52][53]. - **Precious Metals**: Charts and data sources for silver's total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [58][59][60]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [66][67][69]. - **Silicomanganese**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [74][75][76]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [80][81][85]. - **Alumina**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [88][89][90]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean Meal**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [94][96][99]. - **Palm Oil**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [101][102][103]. - **Cotton**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [109][110][111].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Shock" [1] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates, the gold price first experienced a pullback due to long - position profit - taking, then strengthened again. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, and the dot - plot shows two more expected rate cuts this year. The Fed predicts a soft landing for the economy and raises the economic growth and inflation expectations for 2026. There are increasing differences between hawks and doves in the Fed, and future long - short battles will be intense. The short - term gold price has entered a shock phase, and investors should reduce positions before China's National Day holiday [3][5] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The on - shore basis (spot - futures) decreased by 0.68 yuan/gram with a change rate of 17.5%. The domestic - foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) decreased by 11.34 yuan/gram with a change rate of 131.5%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 4,479 kilograms with a change rate of 8.5%. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 549,045 ounces with a change rate of 1.41%. The SPDR ETF gold holding increased by 19.76 tons with a change rate of 2.03%. The CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 5,934 lots with a change rate of - 3.6%. The U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.08% with a change rate of 2.0%. The U.S. 10 - year real interest rate increased by 0.04% with a change rate of 2.6% [11] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 97.6, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.13%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.2%, the U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 4.14%, the oil price fell 0.8%, the U.S. inflation expectation was 2.39%, and the real interest rate rose to 1.74%, while the gold price rose 1.2% [2][18][20][21] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets fell, with the S&P 500 rising 1.22%. Developing - country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.3%. U.S. and German bonds rose, with the U.S. - German yield spread at 1.38%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.71%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.65%. The euro appreciated 0.11%, the pound depreciated 0.62%, the yen depreciated 0.18%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 0.14%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 97.6, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [22][25][26][28] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly decreased to 160,000 lots, and the SPDR gold ETF holding increased to 995 tons. The RMB showed a shock trend, and the Shanghai gold maintained a discount. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 85.5 [30][33] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's September LPR; Tuesday: France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S. September manufacturing PMI, Japan closed for a day; Wednesday: U.S. August new home sales; Thursday: Swiss National Bank interest rate meeting, U.S. initial jobless claims, Q2 GDP final value, August durable goods orders, and existing home sales; Friday: U.S. August core PCE [34]

Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend of treasury bonds is rated as "volatile", and the medium - term trend is expected to turn bullish gradually [1][3][13][14][15] Core Viewpoints - This week (09.15 - 09.21), treasury bond futures fluctuated, first rising and then falling. Looking ahead to next week, the market is still a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with the bond market mainly in a volatile state. In the short term, it is advisable to adopt a volatile mindset and not chase the upward trend. In the medium - term, as the fundamental factors are favorable for the bond market, the bond market in Q4 is expected to gradually strengthen [2][3][12][13][14][15] Summary by Directory 1. One - week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review: Treasury Bond Futures Fluctuated - From 09.15 to 09.21, treasury bond futures first rose and then fell, showing an overall volatile trend. As of September 19th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.358, 105.630, 107.755, and 114.880 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.006, + 0.050, + 0.075, and - 0.280 yuan compared to last weekend [2][12] 1.2 Next Week's View: Short - term Volatility with a Gradual Turn to Bullish in the Medium - term - Next week, the market will be a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the bond market will mainly fluctuate. In the long run, the fundamental factors are the main driving force for the bond market, and the bond market in Q4 is expected to strengthen. Strategies include: short - term volatile thinking, not chasing the upward trend; laying out medium - term long positions at low prices according to market sentiment; closing short - hedging strategies after the market returns to fundamentals; and moderately paying attention to the strategy of steepening the yield curve [3][13][14][15][16][17][18] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 85 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 664.539 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 466.425 billion yuan. The net financing amount of local government bonds decreased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [20][23][24] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields generally increased. As of September 19th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.49%, 1.62%, 1.88%, and 2.20% respectively, with changes of + 5.41, + 0.39, + 1.38, and + 1.75 basis points compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [28][29] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of September 19th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.358, 105.630, 107.755, and 114.880 yuan respectively. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 37,145, 77,933, 123,679, and 159,719 lots respectively, with changes of + 2,940, + 6,401, + 20,560, and - 16,964 lots compared to last weekend. The open interests were 76,364, 145,436, 244,571, and 167,280 lots respectively, with changes of + 3,818, + 1,953, + 16,013, and + 14,208 lots compared to last weekend [37][40] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunities for cash - and - carry arbitrage were not obvious. The basis of futures generally fluctuated within a narrow range, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each main contract was between 1.3% - 1.4% [44] 3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - product Spreads - As of September 19th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2512 - 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were + 0.066, + 0.120, + 0.335, and + 0.310 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.008, - 0.010, + 0.005, and - 0.010 yuan compared to last weekend [47][48] 4. Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 119.23 billion yuan. As of September 19th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.52%, 1.51%, 1.46%, and 1.49% respectively, with changes of + 3.29, + 2.64, + 9.40, and + 2.80 basis points compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.16 trillion yuan, 0.33 trillion yuan less than last week [53][55][57] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index fluctuated within a narrow range, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds increased. As of September 19th, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 97.6519 compared to last weekend's close, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 4.14%, up 8 basis points from last weekend. The spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds was inverted by 226.3 basis points [63] 6. Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices all rose, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of September 19th, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,630.65, 6,411.66, and 1,664.67 points respectively, with changes of + 34.64, + 8.68, and + 23.30 points compared to last weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 19.48, 4.98, and 6.85 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of - 0.40, - 0.09, and + 0.10 yuan/kg compared to last weekend [66] 7. Investment Recommendations - Adopt a volatile mindset in the short term, and lay out medium - term long positions according to market sentiment [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices stabilized with oscillations. The prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed. The stabilization of the market was due to the ongoing destocking and the fact that enterprises had not officially resumed production despite their statements. With the approaching National Day holiday, downstream enterprises started pre - holiday stocking, which provided short - term support for prices. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to remain high while demand faces seasonal peak pressure. The balance sheet shows an average monthly destocking of 3,000 tons in September and October, followed by restocking as demand weakens seasonally. The resumption rhythm of projects will significantly affect the time point of the inventory inflection point [1][11][12]. - The expectation of project resumption puts pressure on the market, but before the actual resumption, the price decline space is limited during the peak season. After the demand inflection point appears, prices may enter a downward channel again under the year - end restocking pressure. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy, be cautious about short - selling in the short term, pay attention to position management, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term, and also focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities [2][13] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Disk Oscillation Stabilization and Pre - holiday Stocking Attention - From September 15 - 19, lithium salt prices oscillated and stabilized. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed to 0.06 million yuan/ton [11][12]. - The market stabilized due to the strong reality of destocking and the fact that enterprises had not officially resumed production. With the approaching National Day holiday, downstream pre - holiday stocking provided short - term price support. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to remain high while demand faces seasonal peak pressure, and the resumption rhythm of projects will affect the inventory inflection point [12]. 3.2. Weekly Industry News Review - Sigma Lithium denied the accusations of improper behavior in the Brazilian lithium project. The Brazilian Federal Prosecutor's Office (MPF) accused Sigma of ignoring inconsistencies in its 2021 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and not consulting the local community before starting the project, and MPF called for a temporary halt to lithium research and mining projects in the relevant area on September 11 [14]. - On September 12, Zijin Mining's 3Q lithium salt lake project with an annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate was put into production in Argentina. The second - phase project with a planned capacity of 40,000 tons/year is in the pre - work stage, and the total annual capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons after both phases are fully operational [14]. - At the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference on September 17, Zeng Yujun of CATL pointed out that the current intense price competition in the energy storage industry, with the price of energy storage systems dropping by about 80% in three years, has brought quality and safety risks due to cost - cutting. The price war has spread overseas this year, squeezing the gross profit of enterprises and causing the industry to face internal and external competition [15]. - Argentina exported 8,099.95 tons of lithium carbonate in August, of which 6,528 tons were exported to China [15]. 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: Slight Increase in Lithium Concentrate Spot Quotes - The spot price of lithium concentrate increased slightly. The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 859 US dollars/ton on September 19, up 2.0% from September 12 [12]. 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: Disk Oscillation Stabilization - The prices of lithium salt futures and spot prices showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose [11][12]. 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Slight Decline in Quotes - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed slight changes. For example, the spot price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 0.8% week - on - week [12]. 3.3.4. Terminal: Further Increase in the Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August - In August, the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate in the terminal market further increased, reflecting changes in the market demand structure of the new energy vehicle and power battery industries [39]

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 美联储如期降息，美元继续看跌 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好略有降温，股市多数下跌，债券收益率多数上 行，美债收益率回升至 4.13%。美元指数涨 0.1%至 97.6，非美货 币多数贬值，离岸人民币涨 0.07%，欧元涨 0.11%，英镑跌 0.62%，日元跌 0.18%，瑞郎涨 0.14%，新西兰元跌 1.6%、澳 元、韩元、泰铢贬值，加元、雷亚尔、林吉特、兰特、比索微 微升值，金价涨 1.2%至 3685 美元/盎司，VIX 指数回升至 15.5， 现货商品指数收跌，布油跌 0.8%至 67.05 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 美联储 9 月利率会议落地，如期降息 25bp，点阵图显示年内仍 有两次降息预期，降息主要是看到就业市场走弱，而关税尚未 明显抬升通胀，通过预防式降息，美联储预测经济将实现软着 陆，上调了 2026 年的经济增长和通胀预期。鲍威尔讲话表示倾 向于判断关税对通胀的抬升是一次性的，不会大幅提升，而就 业市场走弱速度需要关注。此外，值得注意的是，刚刚上任的 美联储理事米兰投出反对票，支持降息 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index is "Volatility" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the A-share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with obvious divergence in market confidence. The A-share market pricing is confusing and shows obvious characteristics of building a top at a high level. It is recommended to take appropriate profit-taking [2][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One-week Views and Overview of Key Macroeconomic Events - **Next Week's Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the change in risk appetite after the Sino-US talks. It is recommended to take appropriate profit-taking due to the confusing pricing clues and obvious high-level topping characteristics in the current A-share market [2][10] - **This Week's Key Events**: - On September 15, an important article by the national leader will be published in Qiushi Magazine, aiming to rectify chaos in enterprise competition and government procurement [11] - On September 15, the economic data for August showed a weakening trend, with declines in consumption, industrial added value, investment, etc [12] - On September 16, 9 departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption [13] - On September 16, the Premier of the State Council investigated new quality productivity-related fields [14] - On September 17, the Ministry of Commerce will select 50 new consumption pilot cities [15] - On September 18, it was reported that China's R & D investment intensity in 2024 exceeded the EU average [16] - On September 19, the President of China had a phone call with the President of the United States [17] - On September 19, the State Council executive meeting studied policies on implementing domestic product standards in government procurement [18] 2. One-week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From September 15 - 19, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 0.99%, with emerging markets (+1.55%) > developed markets (+0.97%) > frontier markets (-0.01%). The Dutch stock market led the world with a 6.23% increase, while the Australian stock market performed the worst with a 2.17% decline [20] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: During the same period, Chinese equity assets were differentiated, with Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks > A-shares. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2518.1 billion yuan, a 191.4 billion yuan increase from last week. The ChiNext Index rose 2.34%, performing the best, while the Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.98%, performing poorly [23] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week, with the information technology industry leading (+2.47%) and the real estate industry performing poorly (-1.32%). In the Chinese market, the real estate industry led the rise (+1.94%), while the financial industry lagged (-3.90%) [27] - **Weekly Overview of China's A-share CITIC Primary Industries**: This week, 16 out of the A-share CITIC primary industries rose (26 last week), and 14 fell (4 last week). The coal industry led the rise (+3.59%), while the banking industry lagged the most (-4.09%) [30] - **Weekly Overview of China's A-share Style**: The large-cap growth style was dominant this week [34] - **Overview of Futures Basis**: Information on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months is provided [37][41] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad-based Index Valuation**: Valuation data such as PE and PB of various broad-based indexes this week, their eight-year percentile, and changes from the beginning of the year are presented [42] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: Valuation data such as PE and PB of various primary industries this week, their eight-year percentile, and changes from the beginning of the year are presented [43] - **Broad-based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300 rose rapidly this week, while that of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 declined slightly [44][49] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast for Broad-based Indexes**: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 7.40%, and in 2026 was lowered to 8.53%. For the CSI 500, the 2025 rate was lowered to 32.14%, and the 2026 rate was raised to 18.08%. For the CSI 1000, the 2025 rate was raised to 38.54%, and the 2026 rate was lowered to 20.77% [50] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the 10-year bond yield declined, the 1-year yield rose, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 97.7, and the offshore RMB was 7.11 [56] - **Trading Capital Tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 12 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 50.8 billion yuan [59] - **Capital Inflow Tracking through ETFs**: There are 29 ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 600 million shares, the CSI 500 by 200 million shares, the CSI 1000 by 300 million shares, and the CSI A500 by 500 million shares [62][66] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macroeconomic High-frequency Data - **Supply Side**: The tire production rate rebounded slightly [69] - **Consumption Side**: Real estate transactions remained sluggish, but the year-on-year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $67 per barrel [77][87] - **Inflation Observation**: The prices of production materials weakened, while agricultural product prices rebounded [89]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints - The alumina supply continues to rise, and the import window further expands. The domestic alumina supply surplus is increasing due to the release of复产 and new production capacity, and the overseas alumina supply surplus is also growing. The import window has opened, putting pressure on domestic prices. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In the north, safety and environmental protection rectification in Shanxi continued, and safety controls tightened in Henan and Shanxi near the National Day. In the south, the rainy season in Guangxi affected mining but not downstream production. The spot price of Guinean bauxite decreased, and the long - term agreement price for the fourth quarter is undetermined. Newly arrived ore was 359.9 million tons, including 282.3 million tons from Guinea and 77.6 million tons from Australia. The shipping freight from Guinea to China increased [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The futures rebounded in the middle of the week, and trading volume increased. The import profit expanded. The domestic alumina full - cost was 2900 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 177 yuan/ton. The national alumina production capacity in operation increased by 40 million tons to 9795 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.15% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of Yunnan Honghe New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 4 million tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 4 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged [14] - **Inventory**: The national alumina inventory increased by 3.9 million tons to 371.9 million tons. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises generally increased, with regional differences. Alumina enterprise inventory slightly increased, port inventory fluctuated, and in - transit/in - warehouse/on - platform inventory continued to rise [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 17703 tons to 150393 tons [15] 2. Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - In August 2025, the import of alumina was 9.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1392%. The export was 18 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.4% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative net export was 126.5 million tons [16] - On September 19, 2025, Brazil sold 3 million tons of alumina at an FOB price of 351 US dollars/ton for November shipment [16] - On September 19, 2025, India sold 3 million tons of alumina at an FOB price of 336 US dollars/ton for December shipment, 4.93 US dollars/ton higher than the previous deal [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - exporting countries, and prices of caustic soda and thermal coal [17][19][21] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [34][37][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This part contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and warehouse receipts and positions of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [45][48][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coexistence of the off - peak season during the supposed peak period and cost support is expected to lead to an oscillatory trend in the market. The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots showed a weak and oscillatory performance last week. Macroeconomic factors, cost, and inventory conditions will jointly affect the price trend of ADC12, with the price expected to oscillate. One - sided trading can consider lightly - weighted long positions on dips, and the existing arbitrage positions can be held with appropriate stop - profit settings [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. 1. Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers but Remains Low, Price Oscillates at High Levels - Last week (09/15 - 09/19), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated weakly. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 1.6% week - on - week to 20,325 yuan/ton, and the sales price of Baotai Group's ADC12 dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The price of waste aluminum in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the FOB price of Malaysian crushed primary aluminum increased by 33 US dollars to 2,233 US dollars/ton. The production cost of Fubao's ADC12 decreased by 113.3 yuan/ton to 20,226 yuan/ton, and the profit widened by 13.2 yuan/ton to 73.8 yuan/ton [12][13] - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly driven by the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.2. 2. Recent Industry News Review - In July 2025, the global primary aluminum supply was short of 11.99 tons, and from January to July 2025, the supply shortage was 98.53 tons [18] - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. Primary alloys expanded steadily, while recycled alloys were still below the boom - bust line [19] - In July 2025, China's waste aluminum imports increased by 18.7% year - on - year, with Thailand and Japan being the major suppliers [19] - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, including rectifying illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [19][20] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [20] 3.3. 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1. 3.1 Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers, Price Remains High - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly due to the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.3.2. 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures oscillated weakly this week, with a 1.6% decline. The sales price of Baotai's ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The ADC12 - A00 spread marginally narrowed. After entering the traditional peak season, the market performance was below expectations, and the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise. The production of standard warehouse receipts for cast aluminum alloy futures will start on September 22nd. The pre - holiday inventory - building demand is expected to provide short - term support for the spot price, and the trading activity of ADC12 in the trading segment increased this week due to the strengthening of the basis. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots continued to rise to 7.14 tons, and the factory - level inventory increased by 0.03 tons to 6.08 tons [16] 3.3.3. 3.3 Downstream: Peak - Season Expectations are Difficult to Fulfill - The high - frequency data of new - energy vehicles showed signs of weakening, and the peak - season expectations for the downstream industry are difficult to fulfill. The production and sales data of the automotive and motorcycle industries are presented in the report, reflecting the current situation of the downstream demand [2][60][66]