Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation from scale - expansion to value - creation, with anti - involution as the underlying logic. In the short term, industry supervision will focus on preventing behaviors such as below - cost dumping, shoddy workmanship, and excessive promotion. However, it is difficult to immediately stop price cuts or raise car prices due to factors like scale effects, technological upgrades, raw material price drops, intense competition, and consumer behavior changes [31]. - The new energy vehicle industry is expected to continue growing, driven by public - domain and county - level market expansion, old - for - new subsidy policies, and the industrialization of intelligent and connected vehicle technologies [2][20][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 《汽车行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》 - **Sales Targets in 2025**: The target is to achieve annual vehicle sales of about 32.3 million, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales reaching about 15.5 million, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. The auto export is expected to maintain stable growth, and the added value of the automotive manufacturing industry is expected to increase by about 6% year - on - year. Compared with the initial forecast, the new energy vehicle sales target has been slightly adjusted down by 500,000 units [2][8]. - **Current Sales Performance**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative vehicle sales were 21.128 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%, completing 65.4% of the annual target. The cumulative new energy vehicle sales were 9.62 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%, completing 61.9% of the annual target. The sales growth rate has slowed down since August due to the high base from the previous year [9]. - **Growth Drivers**: - Public - domain and county - level markets will bring incremental demand. The plan aims to promote over 700,000 new energy vehicles in public - domain transportation in 25 pilot cities [13]. - Old - for - new subsidy policies have been optimized in 2025 compared to 2024, but some regional subsidies have been adjusted since mid - 2025 [20]. - The industrialization of intelligent and connected vehicle technologies, with the conditional approval of L3 - level vehicle mass production, will stimulate potential consumer demand [23]. 3.2 《汽车整车企业供应商账款支付规范倡议》 - **Key Operational Standards**: It defines the standards for order confirmation, delivery acceptance, payment settlement, and contract terms. For example, vehicle manufacturers should complete acceptance within 3 working days, and the payment period should not exceed 60 natural days from the date of acceptance. It encourages cash or bank acceptance bill payments, especially for small and medium - sized suppliers, and advocates long - term stable cooperation with contract validity of at least one year [3][24]. - **Background and Significance**: The automotive industry is experiencing price cuts (about 15% in the overall market, 20% for fuel vehicles, and 8% for new energy vehicles), and the industry's profit margin has declined to 4.3% in 2024. Vehicle manufacturers have transferred cost pressure to suppliers. The initiative aims to build a positive cycle of "quality - cost - price" and a collaborative ecosystem of "vehicle - parts" [25]. 3.3 Summary and Thinking - **Industry Transformation**: The automotive industry is shifting from scale - driven to value - driven growth. In the short term, industry supervision will focus on preventing unfair competition, but it is difficult to immediately change the price - cut trend due to various factors [31]. - **Market Incentive Policies**: - Loan interest subsidies are available for personal consumer loans from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, with an annual interest subsidy rate of 1 percentage point, capped at 50% of the loan contract interest rate [35]. - New energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions will be phased out. They are fully exempted from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2025, and halved from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [36][38].

日度报告——综合晨报 美国上周首申失业金人数大幅回落，A 股放量 下跌 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-09-19 报 USDA 出口销售报告符合预期，美国生物燃料政策仍有不确定 性。国内豆粕表现疲弱，主要因市场交易中美可能达成涉及中 国采购美豆的协议。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上周首申失业金人数大幅回落至 23.1 万 特朗普政府继续寻求罢免美联储理事，这意味着美联储政治化 的进一步上升，美元短期走势震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 商务部回应关于 tiktok 相关问题 综 A 股市场迎来放量大跌，权重股回调明显，监管方面有为市场降 温的考量。在政策转向的时刻，我们认为应降低多头敞口，减 小回撤。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 CONAB 预计巴西 25/26 年度大豆产量继续增加 有色金属（工业硅） 合盛硅业：部分股份质押及解质押公告 短期工业硅价格或在 8200-9200 元/吨运行，关注逢低做多机会。 能源化工（纯碱） 本周四纯碱厂家库存较周一小幅增加 今日纯碱期价有所下跌，主要是商品市场情绪整体转弱。国内 纯碱现货市场趋稳震荡，无明显波动。本周四纯碱厂家库存较 周一小幅增加。 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the 37th week of 2025 (from September 8th to September 14th), the single - week retail sales of passenger cars were 453,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. Since the beginning of this year, the retail sales have reached 1.5182 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The single - week retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 270,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. Since the beginning of this year, the retail sales have reached 791,500 units, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. The year - on - year growth rate has slowed down due to the high base and the termination of subsidies in some regions this year [1][11]. - The single - week penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 59.6%, and the cumulative penetration rate for the year was 52.1%, showing a slow upward trend [1][21]. - The new energy vehicle market pattern is constantly changing. Traditional car companies such as Geely, Changan, and Chery are achieving excellent performance in new energy vehicle sales, and new brands like Xiaomi are bringing new variables to the market. Car companies like BYD, Tesla, and Li Auto have negative year - on - year growth, while XPeng, NIO, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and Voyah maintain relatively high growth rates [2][27]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Passenger Car Market Weekly Overview - In the 37th week of 2025, the single - week retail sales of passenger cars were 453,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. Since the beginning of this year, the retail sales have reached 1.5182 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The single - week retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 270,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. Since the beginning of this year, the retail sales have reached 791,500 units, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. The growth rate has slowed down due to the high base and subsidy termination [1][11]. - By power type, in passenger cars, traditional fuel, hybrid, and new energy vehicles had retail sales of 167,000 units, 16,000 units, and 270,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 16.2%, - 15.1%, and 6.3%, accounting for 36.8%, 3.6%, and 59.6% of passenger cars respectively. In new energy passenger cars, pure - electric, plug - in hybrid, and extended - range vehicles had retail sales of 180,000 units, 68,000 units, and 23,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 23.0%, - 14.5%, and - 21.3%, accounting for 66.5%, 25.1%, and 8.4% of new energy passenger cars respectively [22]. - By production attribute, in passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands had retail sales of 307,000 units and 147,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 2.9% and - 16.0%, accounting for 67.7% and 32.3% of passenger cars respectively. In new energy passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands had retail sales of 243,000 units and 27,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 7.9% and - 6.1%, accounting for 89.8% and 10.2% of new energy passenger cars respectively [24]. 3.2 Key New Energy Vehicle Companies' Sales Analysis - **Overall Situation**: In the 37th week, BYD sold 71,000 units, Geely Automobile 33,000 units, SAIC - GM - Wuling 19,000 units, Tesla (China) 15,000 units, Changan Automobile 14,000 units, Chery Automobile 10,000 units, and Hongmeng Zhixing 10,000 units. Among new - force car companies, Leapmotor sold 13,000 units, Xiaomi 10,000 units, Wenjie 9,000 units, XPeng and Li Auto 8,000 units each, and NIO 6,000 units [2][27]. - **BYD**: The weekly sales were 71,000 units. Since July, the year - on - year growth rate has turned negative. The cumulative sales this year reached 2.28 million units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 2.6%. The sales of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid (including extended - range) models are basically half and half. From January to August this year, the global cumulative sales were 2.864 million units, and the overseas cumulative sales of passenger cars and pick - up trucks were 630,000 units [31]. - **Geely Automobile**: The weekly sales were 49,000 units, including 33,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate of the car company is about 67%. The cumulative sales this year reached 1.591 million units, with a year - on - year growth of 48.2%, and the cumulative new energy sales were 942,000 units, with a year - on - year growth of 99.3% [33]. - **SAIC - GM - Wuling**: The overall weekly sales of passenger cars were 20,000 units, including 19,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate of the car company is as high as 91%. The cumulative sales this year reached 573,000 units, with a growth rate of 19.8%, and the new energy sales were 492,000 units, with a growth rate of 36.1%. Pure - electric models dominate the sales [36]. - **Changan Automobile**: The overall weekly sales of passenger cars were 23,000 units, including 14,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate of the car company is about 59%. The cumulative sales this year reached 821,000 units, with a year - on - year growth of 2.0%, and the new energy sales were 408,000 units, with a year - on - year growth of 18.7% [41]. - **Chery Automobile**: The overall weekly sales of passenger cars were 23,000 units, including 10,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate of the car company is about 43%. The cumulative sales this year reached 843,000 units, with a year - on - year growth of 24.0%, and the new energy sales were 302,000 units, with a year - on - year growth of 66.7% [46]. - **Tesla**: The weekly sales in China were 15,000 units. The cumulative sales this year reached 395,000 units, with a year - on - year negative growth of - 6.7%. The sales of Model 3, Model Y, and Model Y L were about 5,000 units, 9,000 units, and 1,000 units respectively. Tesla has launched multiple preferential activities this year, and the price of the long - range version of Model 3 has increased since July 1st [51]. - **Hongmeng Zhixing**: The weekly sales were 10,000 units, including about 9,000 units of Wenjie. The Shangjie H5, a new car in cooperation with SAIC, is planned to be officially launched in September [54]. - **New - Force Car Companies**: Leapmotor sold 13,000 units, Xiaomi 10,000 units, Wenjie 9,000 units, XPeng and Li Auto 8,000 units each, and NIO 6,000 units. XPeng, NIO, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, Voyah, etc. maintained relatively high year - on - year growth rates [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in line with market expectations, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts this year. The market has different reactions to various asset classes due to this rate cut and other factors such as supply - demand fundamentals and policy expectations [1][12][16]. - The prices of most commodities and financial products are in an oscillatory state, and the future trends are affected by multiple factors including macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations [3][4][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the gold price fell from its high. The short - term upside momentum of gold is lacking, and there is a risk of callback [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's September rate cut of 25bp was in line with expectations, and the dollar index oscillated. It is expected to continue oscillating in the short term [14][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's rate cut of 25bp supported market risk appetite. It is recommended to take a bullish approach, but be aware of market fluctuations caused by economic data changes [18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to be cautious and not chase the market [19][20]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - International coal prices followed the upward trend. The coal price is expected to continue oscillating in the short term, with limited space for movement [21][22]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The iron ore price continued to oscillate. The fundamentals are supportive, but the upside is restricted by finished products. Be vigilant about the demand decline after October [23]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Ukraine imposed a 10% export tariff on soybeans. The soybean meal price was affected by Sino - US negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the short - term price may be weak [24][25]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production decreased in September, but the price increase was limited. The soybean oil price was affected by Sino - US relations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to positive spreads for some varieties [26][27]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price was stable. The consumption was weak during the pre - holiday season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [28][29]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price continued to oscillate. The demand was weak, but the cost support and anti - involution policy expectations provided support. It is recommended to use an oscillatory trading strategy [30][33][34]. 2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal auction prices in Lvliang fluctuated. The supply increased, and the price is expected to continue oscillating in the short term [35][36]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The pig production capacity control meeting was held. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the reverse spread [37][38]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Fed's rate cut had a neutral impact on copper. The macro factors' support for copper weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [40][41][42]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon price may rise slightly. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the anti - spread opportunity [44][45][46]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Sichuan silicon plants plan to cut production. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to interval trading opportunities [47]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The demand for lead improved marginally. It is recommended to wait and see for the short term and consider buying on dips for the medium term [48][49]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price had a large uncertainty in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the short term, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity, and maintain the positive spread idea for internal and external trading [50][51][52]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The lithium carbonate price may decline after the demand peak. It is recommended to take a bearish approach, be cautious in the short term, and pay attention to the anti - spread opportunity [55][56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price is expected to oscillate in the short term [57][59]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The crude oil price oscillated and declined. Pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the price in the short term [60][61]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price oscillated. It is recommended to try positive spreads between November and January [62][63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA price oscillated in the short term [65][66]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene port inventory pressure eased marginally. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and pay attention to the post - peak season inventory problem and oil price fluctuations [68][69]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price may decline, but the downward space is limited [70][72]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market oscillated weakly [73][74]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price had a limited rebound. The fundamentals are weak, and the future may continue to be weak [75]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip demand is entering the off - season. The price is under pressure, and further production cuts may not improve the processing fee [76][77]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price oscillated. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [78][79]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread trading opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601 [80][81]. 2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container freight rate may continue to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [83].

Report Title - Focus on Container Port and Key Hub Monitoring 20250916 [1] Report Analyst - Lan Xi from the Black and Shipping Department of Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute, with a qualification number of F03086543 and an investment consulting number of Z0016590 [1] Core Viewpoints - Asian ports: Chinese ports have rebounded recently and remain at a high level; Southeast Asian ports have large operational fluctuations and recurring congestion. European ports: With the end of summer in the Northern Hemisphere, congestion may improve, but German ports face continued pressure due to railway construction. North American ports: Operating conditions are good [2] Data Summary Asian Ports - **Waiting and Berthing Times**: Yantian has an average turnover of about 1.6 days; Yangshan about 1.9 days; Ningbo about 2.1 days. Singapore has an average in - port time of 1.4 days; Port Klang 2.2 days [2] - **In - Port Duration**: Yangshan is 45.9 hours (month - on - month +2.3 hours, year - on - year +19.3 hours); Ningbo is 50.7 hours (month - on - month +3.2 hours, year - on - year +19.9 hours); Singapore is 33.8 hours (month - on - month - 0.5 hours, year - on - year +5.3 hours); Port Klang is 33.5 hours (month - on - month - 8.0 hours, year - on - year +12.1 hours) [6] European Ports - **Waiting and Berthing Times**: Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremen have different waiting and berthing times. With the end of summer, congestion may improve, but German ports face continued pressure [2] - **In - Port Duration**: Rotterdam is 52.7 hours (month - on - month - 6.1 hours, year - on - year +1.4 hours); Hamburg is 71.0 hours (month - on - month - 6.8 hours, year - on - year - 30.4 hours) [6] North American Ports - **Waiting and Berthing Times**: Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Tacoma have long berthing times, but North American ports operate well [2] - **In - Port Duration**: Long Beach is 104.3 hours (month - on - month - 12.8 hours, year - on - year - 9.4 hours); Los Angeles is 106.0 hours (month - on - month - 6.8 hours, year - on - year - 20.3 hours) [6] Large Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - **Large Container Ship Arrivals**: Different ports have different arrival numbers of large container ships of different sizes, and different alliances also have different arrival numbers of 1.2w+ container ships in different regions [42][45][47] - **Canal and Cape Passage Conditions**: The passage numbers and volumes of container ships through the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal are presented [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities. In the financial sector, it assesses the impact of economic data such as US retail sales and policy - related events like the potential Fed rate cuts on different financial instruments. In the commodity sector, it examines supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and relevant news events affecting different commodities. Market volatility is expected to increase around key events such as the Fed rate meeting, and different investment strategies are recommended for each sector based on the analysis [11][15][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US August retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. Gold prices are rising due to factors like the Russia - Ukraine conflict and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts. However, there is a risk of short - term correction due to potential profit - taking by long - position holders. It is recommended to wait for the Fed rate meeting to end and be cautious of market risks [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US tech companies like Microsoft plan to invest over $40 billion. The market has already priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut, and there is an expectation of a 75 - basis - point rate cut by the end of the year. US stock index futures may face a short - term correction if the economic forecast and future rate - cut path fall short of expectations. It is recommended to be aware of the risk of short - term correction when the rate - cut expectation changes [13][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council Premier conducted research in Gansu and Qinghai, emphasizing innovation - driven development and green development. Nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption. The A - share market had a V - shaped reversal. It is recommended that long - position holders of stock index futures consider reducing their exposure [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption. The central bank conducted a 2870 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 400 billion yuan. The necessity for the central bank to restart open - market treasury bond trading is not strong. It is recommended to remain cautious and not chase long positions [20][21][22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On September 16, the price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong. The price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend in the short term, but the upside is limited due to high downstream power plant inventories and negative growth in daily consumption [24]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto confirmed the first - shipment plan for the Simandou project in November. The iron ore price is expected to remain in a volatile range, with support at the bottom but difficult to break through the upper limit [25]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending September 11, 2025, exceeded expectations. The oil market continued its rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing long positions in the short term and pay attention to relevant policies and production conditions [26]. 2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of the passenger vehicle industry decreased in August. The steel price is in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to adopt a volatile - market mindset when dealing with steel prices [28][29][30]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - With the arrival of the new - season corn, the cost pressure on the corn - starch market will ease, and the industry's supply pressure may increase. It is recommended to be cautious about the price difference between rice flour and corn starch in the medium - to - long - term and short - term [32]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of corn in North China continued to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions in the medium - term and be cautious about short - term short - selling [33]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The price of jujube futures decreased. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations and pay attention to weather changes and pre - festival replenishment [34]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Canada set conditions for mining company mergers. Anglo American and Codelco plan to jointly mine copper. Kazakhstan's copper production increased in January - August. It is recommended to be short - term cautious and observe changes in Fed rate - cut expectations and fundamentals [36][37][38]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Technology signed a procurement agreement with CATL. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are in a complex situation. It is recommended to switch to a bearish mindset, be cautious about short - term short - selling, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [39][40]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory is at a seasonal high, and the 0 - 3 spread is deepening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider buying on dips for mid - term long positions [41]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory is at a historical low, and the 0 - 3 spread is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to mid - term positive - spread opportunities, and maintain a positive - spread mindset for internal - external trading [42]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory reached a four - year high. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips [44]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory decreased. The supply stability of Russia is a concern. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical risks [45]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The price of carbon emissions trading decreased. It is recommended to expect further price decline in the short term [49]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price was slightly lower. It is recommended to try positive - spread trading between November and January contracts on dips [51]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The PTA price is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern in the short term [54]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories were mostly stable. The demand for bottle chips is transitioning to the off - season, and it is difficult to improve processing fees [56]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - China's fertilizer import and export data showed different trends in August. The urea price may stabilize in the short term but face downward risks in the medium term [58]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. It is expected that the spot price will turn down, but the downward space is limited [60]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Some styrene plants in East China had maintenance. The short - term port inventory pressure of styrene decreased, and the contract price is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant factors [62]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market had mixed price movements. It is expected that the pulp market will be in a weak - shock pattern [65]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price increased, but the rebound height is expected to be limited due to weak fundamentals [68]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash price in South China was stable. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [69]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float - glass price in Hubei was stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on the 2601 glass contract and short on the 2601 soda - ash contract [70]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The US plans to levy port fees on Chinese ships, but major shipping companies will not charge additional fees. The spot container freight rate is falling. It is recommended to hold short positions in the October contract [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the European route is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The growth rate of demand on the European route is expected to slow down from the second half of 2025 due to factors such as weak European exports, inventory cycle changes, and a high trade base [2][13][14] - The over - supply pressure on the European route persists, although the new ship delivery rhythm has slowed down in the fourth quarter. Market competition is intensifying, and the spill - over of other routes' pressure may exacerbate the situation [3][41] - The freight rate on the European route may have a short - term rebound during the year - end peak season and long - term agreement signing season, but the possibility of continuous rebound is weak. There are investment opportunities in the 12 - contract under certain conditions [4][48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Slowdown in European Route Demand Growth - The growth momentum of US - EU trade has weakened in the short term due to a higher - than - expected tariff level in the trade agreement and the overdraft of forward demand caused by early restocking in the US [13] - The US may have entered the active destocking phase, and given the strong linkage of the inventory cycle between the US and Europe, the restocking momentum in Europe is weakening, which may suppress European import demand [13] - Despite the slowdown in demand growth, Asia - Europe trade will maintain a high base due to capacity substitution. The price gap between China and Europe is difficult to narrow quickly, and the trade deficit continues to expand [13][14] 3.2. Impact of the Delayed Spring Festival on the Peak - Season Cargo Volume Rhythm - Affected by the National Day holiday, the Asia - Europe trade demand in October is expected to decline significantly month - on - month. The demand is expected to gradually recover in November and enter the traditional peak season in December [29] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 will relieve the freight pressure during the peak season, and the monthly freight volume distribution from December to February next year will be more balanced [29] 3.3. Slower New Ship Delivery and Weaker Impact on the European Route - The pressure of capacity growth on the European route is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. The new ship delivery rhythm has slowed down, and the capacity growth rate of large - scale container ships has decreased [33] - The current European route capacity is relatively saturated. New ships to be delivered in the fourth quarter are likely to be used for other routes or replacement of existing ships, with limited additional capacity supply for the European route [33][35] 3.4. Persistent Excess Pressure and Vigilance against Marginal Disturbances - The supply ceiling on the European route has increased, and the capacity gap has narrowed, resulting in an oversupply situation. The upper - limit capacity is 8% - 13% higher than the critical value, suppressing the market [41] - The market structure on the European route has changed from oligopoly to oligopolistic competition, intensifying price - cutting competition among shipping companies [41] - The profit contraction of other routes may spread to the European route, exacerbating its existing excess pressure [44][45] 3.5. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - As of mid - September, the average price of large containers on the European route has fallen below the low point of the first half of the year. Ship companies may take suspension measures, but the actual scale of suspension is expected to be limited, and it is difficult for the freight rate to stabilize and rebound [48] - During the year - end peak season and long - term agreement signing season, the freight rate may have a short - term rebound, but the possibility of continuous rebound is weak. After the short - term rebound, the freight rate is expected to fall back to near the cost line [48] - The 10 - 12 contract spread exceeds 400 points, and the long - position allocation value of the 12 - contract above 1500 points is limited. If the spot price continues to fall, there may be an opportunity to go long on the 12 - contract at a low level [49] - It is recommended to view the 12 - 02 spread trend with an oscillatory mindset and pay attention to short - term positive arbitrage opportunities when the spread converges to par or discount [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, economic data continued to weaken, with supply still stronger than demand. The economic growth momentum is gradually slowing down, and the necessity of introducing incremental growth - stabilizing policies is rising, but the intensity of such policies should not be overestimated. The bond market has not yet focused on the fundamentals and is currently weak, but in the long - term, it is less likely to turn bearish, and there is a high probability that the fundamentals will drive the bond market to strengthen in Q4 [1][2][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month Economic Data: Weaker with Supply Exceeding Demand - **Demand Side** - **Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to August was 0.5%, the lowest since 2021. Manufacturing investment growth continued to decline, and in the future, its growth rate will show a decline in resilience. Infrastructure investment growth also continued to decline, and there is still downward pressure on its year - on - year growth rate. Real estate data generally weakened in August, and stable real - estate policies are expected to be introduced from late September to October [12][17][18] - **Consumption**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.4%, and the policy of promoting consumption is on the way. Subsequently, the growth rate of social retail sales is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the release of long - term consumption potential still depends on institutional reform [27][28] - **Production Side**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.2%, and the slowdown in industrial production growth was jointly caused by weakening demand and the implementation of anti - involution policies. Industrial production may experience a resilient decline within the year [29][36] 3.2 Bond Market: Not Focused on Fundamentals and Currently Weak - In the short term, the bond market is facing many disturbances, and it is recommended to adopt a defensive approach. It is also recommended to continue holding short - hedging strategies, and in a strong stock market environment, using T or TL for hedging is recommended. In the long term, the probability of the bond market turning bearish is low, and it is likely to strengthen in Q4 [37][39][40]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded due to the consensus reached on the TikTok issue between China and the US, and the US dollar continues to be weak. The A-share market is oscillating and differentiating, with the index attempting to rise but encountering resistance, and the market trading volume slightly shrinking. The futures of corn have broken through the support level and declined. The terminal demand for building materials remains weak, but the steel price continues to oscillate. The supply disturbance of lithium carbonate has temporarily ended, and the market will return to the fundamental logic. [1][2][3][4][57] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump nominee for Fed governor Milan passed the Senate's procedural hurdle. Trump pressured Powell to cut interest rates significantly, which pushed gold prices up. The short - term gold price fluctuations increase, and investors should pay attention to risks. [12][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US will start imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese cars. Milan's nomination as Fed governor is likely to be confirmed. The consensus on the TikTok issue between China and the US has boosted market risk appetite, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term. [15][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The market regulator is conducting an anti - monopoly investigation on Nvidia. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars. CoreWeave has received a $6.3 billion order from Nvidia. The AI industry's capital expenditure continues to expand, and the US stock market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the expectation of interest rate cuts. [19][20][22] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The economic data in August showed a decline. The A - share market is oscillating and differentiating, with high - level characteristics. It is recommended to reduce long positions to cope with the high - level oscillating pattern. [23][25][26] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The economic data in August was worse than expected. The central bank conducted a 280 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market still lacks the momentum to strengthen, and investors should remain cautious. [27][28][30] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean planting rate is 0.12%. NOPA members crushed 189.8 million bushels of soybeans in August. The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased by 1%. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased. The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain oscillating, and investors should pay close attention to the results of China - US talks. [31][32][34][35] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Floods in Malaysia's Sabah state have affected palm oil production. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from September 1 - 15 increased by 2.55% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in August increased by 15.75% month - on - month. The short - term oil market is expected to remain oscillating and slightly stronger. [36][37][38] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in Guangzhou Ruyifang Market has stabilized. The main contract of red date futures has declined significantly. The supply and demand of red dates have not changed significantly recently, and it is recommended to wait and see. [41][42] 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the East China market has remained stable. The supply of coking coal has returned to normal, and the demand is fair. The price of coking coal is expected to continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term. [43][44] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch has continued to decline. The cost support is insufficient, and the profit of starch enterprises is differentiated. The medium - and long - term fundamentals are not favorable for the price difference between corn and starch. [45][46] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - There are rumors that the import corn auction will increase the supply. The futures price of corn has declined significantly. Before the selling pressure is realized, the 11 and 01 contracts are expected to have some support at 2150, but the medium - term view is bearish. [47] 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The infrastructure investment from January to August increased by 2.0% year - on - year. The production of crude steel in August decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. The real estate development investment from January to August decreased by 12.9% year - on - year. The steel price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term. [48][49][52] 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The production of raw coal in August decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. The pit - mouth coal price has been rising recently, but the increase is limited due to the high inventory of power plants. The short - term coal price is expected to be slightly stronger. [54] 2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The daily output of crude steel in August decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The iron ore price is expected to remain oscillating, and the impact of the meeting organized by the Steel Association is limited. [55][56] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zijin Mining's 20,000 - ton lithium carbonate project in Argentina has been put into operation. Sigma Lithium denies the accusations of improper behavior in the Brazilian lithium project. The market will return to the fundamental logic. The price of lithium carbonate may decline after the demand inflection point. [57][58][59] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Dianzhong Non - ferrous's electrolytic plant has produced the first batch of copper sulfate. QB and Collahuasi copper mines plan to be integrated. The copper price is expected to oscillate and be slightly stronger in the short term. [60][61][62] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has seized 321.07 hectares of illegal nickel mines. The short - term focus is the Fed's interest rate meeting. The price of nickel ore is expected to rise in Q4, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips. [63][64] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME0 - 3 lead is at a deep discount. The social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The short - term demand has improved slightly, but the long - term view is slightly bullish. It is recommended to wait and see on the sidelines and consider going long on dips. [65][66] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Peru's zinc concentrate production in July decreased by 4.2% month - on - month. The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a premium. The domestic zinc inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see on the sidelines and pay attention to the mid - term positive spread opportunity. [67][68][69] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US is considering more severe sanctions against Russia. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term. [70][71] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen cargo has risen. The domestic LPG price is expected to follow the overall energy - chemical sector, and the fundamentals do not support a trend - like market. [72][73][74] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The refinery and social inventories of asphalt have decreased. The asphalt futures price is expected to remain weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. [76][77] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The downstream demand of polyester is weak. The PX price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to try the positive spread between November and January contracts on dips. [78][79][80] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the basis has weakened. The terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the PTA price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term. [81][82][83] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories has increased slightly. An East China polyester bottle chip plant has shut down. The demand for bottle chips is turning to the off - season, and the processing fee is difficult to improve. [85][86][87] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has decreased. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The caustic soda spot price is expected to turn down, but the downward space is limited. [88][89][90] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp has shown mixed trends. The pulp market is expected to oscillate and weaken due to poor fundamentals. [91][92] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea production load has decreased. The domestic demand is weak, and the urea price is expected to continue to decline in the medium term. The potential rebound driver depends on the release of off - season storage demand and the improvement of market sentiment. [93][94] 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price has oscillated and increased. The fundamentals are under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited due to low valuation. [95] 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has some resilience. The short - term accumulation pressure has been relieved, but the long - term inventory contradiction needs to be resolved. [96][97] 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 174.71 million tons. The soda ash price is expected to be sold short on rallies, and investors should pay attention to supply disturbances. [98][99] 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market has changed slightly. The spot market is in the off - season, and the 01 contract premium is high. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601. [100][101] 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The SCFIS index shows that the European line index has declined, and the US West index has increased. The freight rate may stop falling in mid - October, and investors can hold short positions in the 10 - contract and consider going long on the 12 - contract if it falls to around 1500 points. [103][104]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The current production and sales of photovoltaic glass are basically balanced, the decline in manufacturers' inventory continues to narrow, and the short - term price of photovoltaic glass is expected to remain stable [3][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, the industry supply increased slightly. A single kiln resumed production, with the in - production capacity increasing by 200 tons per day. Currently, the in - production capacity is 88,780 tons per day, and the capacity utilization rate is 68.52%, which is still at a low level. Supply is expected to remain stable next week [7][12]. - **Demand**: Recently, the domestic demand for photovoltaic glass has been positive. Some orders placed in August were not shipped, and there are remaining orders to be delivered in September, creating a short - term supply - demand imbalance. However, downstream orders are mostly placed, and production and sales are basically balanced. After the "stockpiling wave" of component manufacturers, downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand [7][21]. - **Inventory**: The overall decline in photovoltaic glass manufacturers' inventory continued to narrow last week. The decline was due to the uncertainty of component export tax - refund policies and high downstream component production schedules. As the "stockpiling wave" ends, the decline in inventory will further narrow, and the inventory is expected to change little this week [7][23]. - **Cost - profit**: The photovoltaic glass industry has turned a profit, and the profitability improved last week. The current industry gross profit margin is about 2.6% [7][27]. 3.2 Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data Overview - **Spot Price**: As of September 12, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass was 13 yuan per square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated was 21 yuan per square meter, both unchanged from last week. The market transactions were smooth, and some second - and third - tier component manufacturers were still rushing to buy [8]. - **Supply**: The in - production capacity increased by 200 tons per day last week. The current in - production capacity is 88,780 tons per day, and the capacity utilization rate is 68.52%, remaining at a low level. Supply is expected to be stable next week [12]. - **Demand**: The demand has been positive recently. Some August orders were not shipped, and there are September remaining orders. But downstream orders are mostly placed, and production and sales are balanced. After the "stockpiling wave", downstream purchases are based on rigid demand [21]. - **Inventory**: The decline in manufacturers' inventory continued to narrow last week. The reasons for the previous decline were the uncertainty of export tax - refund policies and high component production schedules. As the "stockpiling wave" ends, the inventory decline will narrow, and the inventory is expected to change little this week [23]. - **Cost - profit**: The industry has turned a profit, and the profitability improved last week. The current gross profit margin is about 2.6% [27]. - **Trade**: From January to July 2025, China's photovoltaic glass exports increased by 13.8% compared with the same period in 2024. The export market remains prosperous, and overseas installation demand is strong [33].