1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - M1 is expected to peak and decline, and the inflation level will remain low. Although the PPI year - on - year reading will rise due to the low base, the overall inflation in Q4 will stay at a low level [1][19] - The main theme of the Q4 market is likely to return to reality. After the stock market gradually evaluates policies and fundamentals, the negative impact on the bond market will be cleared [2] - The impact of monetary policy is mild, and the bond market valuation is reasonable. Even with limited incremental monetary benefits, the bond market can strengthen as it returns to fundamental trading [3] - The Q4 bond market is expected to oscillate and recover. It is recommended to wait for market sentiment to stabilize, then take long positions on dips, continue to hold short - hedging strategies and close them after sentiment stabilizes, and consider curve - flattening strategies [4][82][83] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Q1 - Q3 Treasury Bond Trend Review - The first stage (early - March mid - late): The central bank guided the tightening of the capital market, and the bond market oscillated weakly [13] - The second stage (end of March - end of June): Monetary policy and the capital market gradually loosened, and the bond market gradually recovered. After the tariff implementation in early April, Treasury bond futures rose rapidly, and the bond market oscillated at a high level from April to May, then strengthened in June [13] - The third stage (July - September): Anti - involution policies led to a rise in market risk appetite, the stock and commodity markets rose rapidly, and Treasury bond futures fell [13] 3.2 M1 Peaks and Declines, Inflation Remains Low 3.2.1 The Current M1 Growth Recovery is Unique and May Lack Sustainability - The current M1 growth recovery is different from previous ones. It is mainly due to the low base, fiscal stimulus creating corporate deposits, improved SME payment cycles, increased corporate settlement willingness, and the revival of household deposit currentization [20][21] - The economic nature of the current M1 growth recovery is limited, and the M1 growth rate is likely to decline in Q4 due to the rising base and potential reduction in fiscal policy intensity [24][25] 3.2.2 The Year - on - Year Inflation Reading Rises, but the Month - on - Month Price Increase Momentum is Weak - The current M1 growth recovery has limited ability to drive inflation. The anti - involution policy has not been fully implemented, and the domestic supply - demand imbalance persists. The Q4 inflation will remain low, and the PPI year - on - year reading will rise due to the low base [19] - It is difficult to reduce supply in Q4 as the anti - involution policy is different from the supply - side structural reform, and the high - tech manufacturing production growth is relatively fast [28][29] - Domestic demand remains weak. The real estate market is difficult to stabilize, Q4 consumption growth is challenging, and although external demand has some resilience, it also faces downward pressure [31][32][36] 3.3 Q4 Market Main Theme Expected to Return to Reality 3.3.1 Capital Drives Stock Market Up, Bond Market Follows Down - The rise of the stock market in Q3 was mainly driven by capital. Factors include high stock - bond return ratios, increased global risk appetite, policy incentives, and increased corporate settlement willingness [39][43][51] - The stock market's bull run in Q3 significantly suppressed the bond market. As the bond market has priced in the existing monetary benefits, the stock market's rise became the key factor suppressing the bond market [53] 3.3.2 When Will the Negative Impact of the Stock Market be Cleared? - Overseas risk appetite may fluctuate in Q4 due to potential inflation risks in the US and geopolitical uncertainties [56] - The stock - bond return ratio approached its 10 - year average in mid - September, and the stock market's upward pace slowed down, indicating a possible return to fundamental trading [59] - Policy incentives are expected to fade away in mid - late October, and the stock market is likely to turn to real - world trading. The bond market and the stock market are expected to gradually return to fundamental trading in Q4 [60][63] 3.4 Monetary Impact is Mild, Bond Market Valuation is Reasonable 3.4.1 No Negative Monetary Factors, Limited Incremental Benefits - Monetary policy and the capital market are likely to remain unchanged. Although there is a need for interest rate cuts, the probability is low, and the market's expectation of continuous interest rate cuts is also low [64][71] - The central bank is not in a hurry to restart open - market bond trading. Even if the policy is implemented, its positive impact on the bond market will be weaker than last year [75] 3.4.2 Bond Market Valuation is Basically Reasonable with Room for Strengthening - The short - end and long - end interest rates in the bond market are gradually approaching reasonable levels. The bond market's sensitivity to negative news will gradually decrease as the valuation becomes more reasonable [76][77] 3.5 Treasury Bond Market Outlook and Strategies - The Q4 bond market is expected to oscillate and recover. It will start with low - level oscillations, then turn upward, and may face fluctuations at the end of the year [82][83] - Strategies include taking long positions on dips after market sentiment stabilizes, continuing to hold short - hedging strategies and closing them after sentiment stabilizes, and considering curve - flattening strategies when the bond market sentiment improves [83]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: The A - share market has rebounded unexpectedly, with capital logic overriding fundamental logic. In the US, economic stagflation risks are accumulating, and large - cap technology stocks are expected to drive the index up. For US Treasury futures, the market is expected to oscillate and bottom out. For US stock index futures, they are expected to run strongly with high volatility [1][14][18]. - **Commodity Markets**: In the agricultural products market, the outlook for various products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton is complex, with different influencing factors. In the black metal market, prices of products like coking coal and steel are expected to oscillate. In the non - ferrous metal market, copper prices are likely to remain high and oscillate, and different non - ferrous metals have different investment suggestions based on their supply - demand situations. In the energy and chemical market, prices of products such as crude oil, carbon emissions, and various chemical products also show different trends and investment opportunities [25][32][56]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US CBO significantly lowered the US economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4% from 1.9% in January. The inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.1%, and the unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.5% by the end of the year. The US consumer confidence index in September decreased, and the long - term inflation expectation rose. The market is expected to run strongly with high volatility [12][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - In August, the new credit scale was lower than expected. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations. The private sector's endogenous financing willingness is still weak, and the M1 growth rate is expected to rise and then fall. The bond market is expected to oscillate and bottom out [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce launched anti - discrimination and anti - dumping investigations on the US integrated circuit field. The Ministry of Finance stated that there is still sufficient room for fiscal policy to exert force. The A - share market has rebounded unexpectedly, and it is recommended to focus on sub - sectors [19][20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio to 45% before moving to 50%. The palm oil market rebounded last week. It is recommended to wait and see for palm oil and soybean oil [23][25][26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The 2025/26 sugar - making season in Yunnan may start in mid - to late October. India's sugar production forecast for the 2025 - 26 season remains at 34.9 million tons. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of August is expected to increase by 17.3%. Zheng sugar is expected to have limited downside space and may have a weak rebound in Q4 [27][28][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The import coking coal forward market is stable. Coking coal spot prices are weak, and the supply has recovered. Coke's first - round price cut has been implemented, and the second - round is expected. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [32][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Cotton spinning mills' immediate profits have rebounded, but consumption terminal support is insufficient. The USDA's September report shows little change in US cotton supply and demand and a decrease in global inventory. Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate, with limited upside space [34][37][39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel inventories have increased. Steel demand has not recovered seasonally as expected, and prices are expected to oscillate due to limited downward space and weak demand [41][43][44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills'开机 rates remain high. The USDA slightly adjusted down the US soybean yield forecast, and the ending inventory is higher than expected. The future trend of soybean meal depends on Sino - US relations [44][45][46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises' profits show regional differences, with losses deepening in the Northeast and narrowing in North China. The futures price difference between rice and flour is expected to remain weak [47][48]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions has increased. The market's speculation on old - crop corn is expected to cool down, and a bearish view is maintained in the medium term [49][50]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the designated red date delivery warehouses. The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on weather changes and pre - festival replenishment [50][51][52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Canada launched a fast - track review mechanism for major mining projects. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is shut down. Copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][56]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery loading is increasing. It is recommended to switch to a bearish view, paying attention to short - term risks and mid - term short - selling opportunities [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Leading enterprises raised silicon wafer prices. India lowered the GST on renewable energy components. The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate between policy expectations and concentrated cancellations, and it is recommended to focus on option and arbitrage opportunities [59][60][64]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of Xinjiang silicon enterprises has increased. Industrial silicon prices are expected to run between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities [65][66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Two Indonesian mining companies were exposed for "illegal mining". The nickel market is expected to have upward potential, and it is recommended to consider going long at low prices [67][68][69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of waste lead - acid batteries has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider going long at low prices in the mid - term [70][73]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread is at a premium. Zinc concentrate port inventories have increased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities [74][75]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA main contract price is oscillating. The carbon price is expected to run strongly due to the approaching compliance deadline [76][77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has increased. A drone attacked a Russian port. Oil prices are oscillating, and short - term geopolitical risks should be noted [78][79][80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices have been slightly lowered. The industry is maintaining a 20% production cut, and it is recommended to focus on production cut sustainability and new capacity release [81][83]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The utilization rates of downstream styrene industries have increased. Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the resolution of inventory contradictions after the peak season should be noted [84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX prices have dropped. The supply - demand situation is expected to reduce inventory in the medium - to long - term. It is recommended to try positive arbitrage between months [85][86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has decreased slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The spot price is expected to turn down, but the downward space is limited [87][88]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. PTA is in a stage of neutral inventory, low valuation, and weak drive, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust [89][90][91]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market is mostly stable. The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly adjusted. The PVC fundamentals are under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited [94]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market is running weakly. The supply pressure is expected to continue, and the 2601 contract may decline further in the medium term [95][96]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price is stable. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [96][97]. 3.2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei is flat. It is recommended to focus on the long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage opportunity [98]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The annual container throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan Port has exceeded 30 million TEU. The SCFI composite index has decreased. Freight rates are at risk of decline, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [99][100][101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market remained at a low level this week, with daily average trading volume and open interest showing a decline. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance, with the chemical sector mostly declining and the non - ferrous sector mostly rising. There were 33 varieties with weekly losses. Attention should be paid to the trading opportunities and risks in different sectors [2][16]. - Most commodity options' implied volatility declined this week. For varieties with high implied volatility, investors should be wary of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility; for those with low implied volatility, buying options has a higher cost - performance ratio [2][16]. - The PCR indicators of different varieties reflect different market sentiments. For varieties with high PCR, there is a strong bearish sentiment, while for those with low PCR, there is a concentrated bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week (from September 8th to September 12th, 2025), the daily average trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.53 million lots, and the daily average open interest was 9.21 million lots, with a week - on - week change of - 5.20% and - 1.17% respectively [1][7]. - Actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume this week included glass (940,000 lots), soda ash (540,000 lots), and silver (430,000 lots). Varieties with significant trading volume growth were lead (+143%), apple (+140%), and crude oil (+111%); those with significant trading volume decline were lithium carbonate (-71%), polysilicon (-70%), and industrial silicon (-59%) [1][7]. - Varieties with high daily average open interest this week were soybean meal (880,000 lots), glass (790,000 lots), and soda ash (770,000 lots). Varieties with rapid week - on - week growth in daily average open interest were apple (+46%), lead (+36%), and alumina (+36%) [1][7]. 3.2 Commodity Options Main Data Review 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance, with the chemical sector mostly declining and the non - ferrous sector mostly rising. There were 33 varieties with weekly losses. Varieties with high weekly gains included gold (+2.35%), silver (+2.31%), and aluminum (+2.05%); those with high weekly losses included polysilicon (-5.51%), synthetic rubber (-5.20%), and lithium carbonate (-4.17%) [2][16]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility declined this week, and 35 varieties' current implied volatility was below the 50th percentile of the past year's history. Varieties with implied volatility at a high level in the past year included polysilicon, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and eggs; those at a low level included lead, zinc, p - xylene, urea, and oilseeds [2][16]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of varieties such as bottle chips and plastics was at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of non - ferrous metals, live pigs, and glass was at a historical low, indicating a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of polysilicon and lead was at a historical high, while that of rebar, non - ferrous metals, live pigs, and styrene was at a historical low [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims for about 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a 3% YoY increase, with around 15.5 million new energy vehicle sales, a 20% YoY increase, and a 6% YoY growth in automobile manufacturing added - value. In 2026, the industry is expected to maintain a stable and positive development trend [1][105][116]. - From January to August, China's automobile sales reached 21.128 million, a 12.6% YoY increase, and new energy vehicle sales were 9.62 million, a 36.7% YoY increase, achieving 65.4% and 61.9% of the annual targets respectively [1][106][118]. - In the 36th week (September 1 - 7), new energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 220,000, a 0.5% YoY decrease, and the annual cumulative retail sales were 7.645 million, a 23.4% YoY increase. The single - week penetration rate reached 60.6%, and the annual cumulative penetration rate was 51.9%, showing a slow upward trend [2][109][118]. - In July, global new energy vehicle sales reached 1.392 million, an 18.5% YoY increase, and from January to July, sales were 9.233 million, a 25.9% YoY increase. Except for China, Europe and other regions had significant growth, with 29.5% and 53.4% growth respectively from January to July [2][118]. - In August, the US new energy vehicle sales were 177,000, an 18.4% YoY increase, much higher than the overall vehicle growth rate of 2%. From January to August, the cumulative sales were 1.01 million, a 2.4% YoY increase [2][112][119]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - The weekly price changes of relevant sectors and listed companies are presented. For example, BYD's closing price on September 12 was 105.91 yuan, with a - 1.26% weekly change; CATL's closing price was 325 yuan, with a - 0.03% weekly change [13][15][16]. 3.2产业链数据跟踪 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports**: In August, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with YoY growth of 27.4% and 26.8%. From January to August, production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, with YoY growth of 37.3% and 36.7%. In August, new energy vehicle exports were 224,000, a 100% YoY increase. From January to August, exports were 1.532 million, an 87.3% YoY increase [106][107][108]. - **Inventory Changes**: Data on monthly new additions to new energy passenger vehicle channel inventory and manufacturer inventory are provided [25][26]. - **Delivery Volumes of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers**: Monthly delivery volumes of manufacturers such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, NIO, Zeekr, Aion, Voyah, and Deepal are presented [28][29][33]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: In July, global new energy vehicle sales reached 1.392 million, an 18.5% YoY increase, and from January to July, sales were 9.233 million, a 25.9% YoY increase [2][118]. - **European Market**: Relevant data on new energy vehicle sales and penetration rates in Europe, including the UK, Germany, and France, are provided [44][45][49]. - **North American Market**: In August, US new energy vehicle sales were 177,000, an 18.4% YoY increase. From January to August, the cumulative sales were 1.01 million, a 2.4% YoY increase. Data on North American new energy vehicle sales and penetration rates are also presented [2][112][119]. - **Other Regions**: Data on new energy vehicle sales and penetration rates in other regions, such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand, are provided [60][61][65]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - Data on power battery installation volume (by material), export volume (by material), weekly average price of power battery cells, and material costs are presented. Information on the operating rates and prices of ternary materials, precursors, lithium iron phosphate, negative electrode materials, electrolytes, and other related materials is also provided [76][78][82]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - Data on the daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum are provided [97][98][100]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 China: Policy Dynamics - The eight - department joint issuance of the "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to achieve specific sales and growth targets for 2025 and 2026 [1][105][116]. - The six - department joint launch of a three - month special rectification action for online chaos in the automobile industry aims to improve the handling efficiency of online chaos and regulate marketing and publicity behaviors [105]. - The two - department release of the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting High - Quality Development of 'Artificial Intelligence +' Energy" promotes the application of artificial intelligence in energy - related fields [106]. 3.3.2 China: Industry Dynamics - In August, new energy vehicle production and sales data are as stated above. From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles also showed significant growth [106][107][108]. - From September 1 - 7, new energy retail sales decreased by 3% YoY, and the cumulative retail sales increased by 25% [109]. - In August, China's power battery installation volume was 62.5GWh, a 32.4% YoY increase. From January to August, the cumulative installation volume was 417.9GWh, a 43.1% YoY increase [110][111]. - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers is preparing to establish a new energy vehicle battery branch [111]. 3.3.3 Overseas: Policy Dynamics - Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on products from Asian countries such as China, South Korea, and India to 50%, which requires congressional approval [112]. - The US has exempted a variety of products, including gold, graphite, and nickel, from tariffs [112]. 3.3.4 Overseas: Industry Dynamics - In August, US new energy vehicle sales were 177,000, an 18.4% YoY increase [112][113][119]. 3.3.5 Overseas: Enterprise Dynamics - Construction of South Korean battery factories in the US has been interrupted due to immigration enforcement. LG Energy Solution has taken corresponding measures [113][114]. - VinFast delivered 72,167 vehicles globally in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in vehicle and motorcycle sales. In the second quarter, revenue increased by 91.6% YoY, and the net loss was approximately 812 million US dollars [115]. - InoBat, a Slovakian electric vehicle battery manufacturer, received 54 million euros in subsidies and 456,000 euros in loans from the Spanish government to support the construction of a battery super - factory [116][117]. 3.4 Industry Views The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" sets clear goals for 2025 and 2026, and current market data shows the development status of the new energy vehicle industry [1][116][118]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - China's new energy vehicle market penetration rate has reached a relatively high level. In 2025, high - competitiveness new models are continuously launched, and price wars are gradually ending. - Due to severe trade protectionism in Europe and the US, there are risks in exports. Attention should be paid to new growth points such as Belt and Road countries and the Middle East. - In the competitive landscape, domestic brands' market shares continue to expand. Attention should be paid to enterprises with strong product capabilities, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply [3][120][121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of gold continued to rise and hit a new high, driven by geopolitical risks and the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The US inflation rebounded as expected, and the employment market continued to weaken. The divergence between hawks and doves at the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting is expected to increase. After the price of gold reached a record high, the game between bulls and bears intensified, and market volatility increased. Attention should be paid to the short - term correction risk [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was - 3.88 yuan/gram, with a weekly change rate of - 1.8%. The domestic - foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) was - 8.62 yuan/gram, with a weekly change rate of - 56.2%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 22.2% to 52,950 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.11% to 38,914,491 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume decreased by 0.73% to 974.80 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 1.4% to 166,417 lots. The US Treasury yield decreased by 1.0% to 4.06%, and the US 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 4.3% to 1.69% [11] 3.2 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.41%. Oil prices rose 3.8%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.37%. The US dollar index fell 0.22% to 97.55, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.59%, and the VIX index dropped to 14.76. The real interest rate dropped to 1.69%, and the gold price rose 1.6% [17][19][21] 3.2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.59%. Developing country stock markets also mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.52%. US Treasury bonds fell slightly, German bonds rose, and the US - Germany spread was 1.35%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.67%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.59%. The euro appreciated 0.14%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.34%, the yen depreciated 0.17%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 0.18%. Non - US currencies mostly appreciated [22][26][28] 3.3 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly decreased to 166,000 lots, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume dropped to 974 tons. The RMB showed a volatile trend, and Shanghai gold remained at a discount. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 86.3 [32][35] 3.4 Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's August social retail sales and industrial added value; Japan's market closed. Tuesday: US August retail sales and September NAHB housing index. Wednesday: US August new housing starts and building permits; Bank of Canada interest rate meeting decision. Thursday: Fed and Bank of England September interest rate meetings. Friday: Bank of Japan September interest rate meeting [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina supply continues to rise, and the import window has opened. Domestic alumina supply is increasing due to复产 and new - capacity releases, leading to a growing supply surplus. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [1][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In the north, strict inspections in Henan and policy - related impacts in Shanxi limited ore production. Frequent rainfall also reduced ore output. Imported ore prices were stable, and the shipping volume is expected to increase in October. Newly - arrived ore was 3.406 million tons this period, including 2.272 million tons from Guinea and 1.055 million tons from Australia. The shipping cost from Guinea to China dropped to $23.5 per ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina declined last week. The import window opened due to large - scale tenders from downstream aluminum plants, and market sentiment was bearish. The theoretical import profit was 44 yuan per ton. The national alumina production capacity in operation increased by 800,000 tons to 97.55 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.1% [2][12] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of Yunnan Honghe New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 20,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 20,000 tons to 44.163 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged [13] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the national alumina inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 3.68 million tons. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. Alumina enterprise inventory remained low, and port inventory increased significantly [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 32,435 tons to 138,692 tons. The futures price is expected to be weak and oscillating, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [14] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Import Cost**: As of September 11, the Australian alumina quotation was about $336 per ton, down $18.5 from the previous week. The theoretical import profit was 44 yuan per ton [15] - **Transaction in Western Australia**: On September 11, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia at an FOB price of $340 per ton, down $10 from the previous deal [15] - **Ore Use in Shanxi**: Due to poor domestic ore acquisition in Shanxi, some alumina enterprises increased the use of imported ore. One alumina plant restored its operating capacity from 1 million tons to 1.4 million tons [15] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][25][27] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [32][36][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This part contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant and alumina plant alumina inventories, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the quantity of warehouse receipts and open interest of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [42][45][48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US inflation pressure persists, and the US dollar is expected to continue its downward trend. The market is waiting for the outcome of the Fed's September interest rate meeting. If the Fed takes a hawkish stance, the market may face a correction. The ECB kept its policy unchanged in September and entered a data - dependent wait - and - see phase [1][2] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most global stock markets rose, and most bond yields increased. The yield of US Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 4.06%. The US dollar index dropped 0.22% to 97.55, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 1.6% to $3643 per ounce, the VIX index fell to 14.7, the spot commodity index fluctuated, and Brent crude oil rose 3.8% to $67.6 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets rose. The S&P 500 in the US rose 1.59%, the Shanghai Composite Index in China rose 1.52%, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose 3.82%, and the Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 4.07%. The US inflation has stickiness, and the employment market is weakening. The market is waiting for the Fed's September interest rate meeting. If the Fed is hawkish, the market may correct. China's August import and export data were below expectations, and inflation recovery is slow [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields increased, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 4.06%. The market's concern about inflation eased after the US August PPI was lower than expected, but the rebound of CPI limited the downward space of US Treasury bond yields. Eurozone government bond yields mostly increased, and emerging - market bond yields showed mixed trends. China's 10 - year government bond yield rose to 1.8%, and the bond market remained under pressure [14][18][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.22% to 97.55, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.02%, the euro rose 0.14%, the pound rose 0.34%, the Swiss franc rose 0.18%, while the yen fell 0.17%, and the Canadian dollar and the Korean won depreciated. The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, rand, real, Thai baht, and peso appreciated by more than 1% [24][25][27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 1.6% to $3643 per ounce, reaching a new high. However, it may face short - term correction risks. Brent crude oil rose 3.8% to $67.6 per barrel, but its long - term upward trend may not be sustainable. The spot commodity index fluctuated [28][29][30] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The US inflation met expectations. The CPI rebounded as expected, and the PPI was lower than expected. Inflation may face further upward pressure in the short term, and the labor market may be weaker than it seems [31][33] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Next week, there will be interest rate meetings of the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, as well as the release of important economic data such as China's August social retail and industrial growth, and the US August retail sales [35]

周度报告—碳酸锂 供应风险弱化，锂价回吐溢价 [Table_Summary] ★供应风险弱化，锂价回吐溢价 上周锂盐价格承压回落。LC2509 收盘价环比-3.7%至 7.12 万元/ 吨，LC2511 收盘价环比-4.2%至 7.12 万元/吨；SMM 电池级及工 业级碳酸锂现货均价环比-3.1%、-3.2%至 7.25、7.02 万元/吨。SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比-1.7%、-1.6%至 7.43、 7.92 万元/吨。电工价差环比持平于 0.23 万元/吨。电池级氢氧化 锂较电池级碳酸锂价格升水走阔 0.1 万元至 0.18 万元/吨。 有 色 金 属 据界面新闻，9 月 9 日宁德时代控股子公司宜春时代召开会议， 专题推进枧下窝锂矿复产工作。尽管当前企业仍在办理复产所需 的相关手续、也暂未给出明确的复产时间，但市场大概率将先行 计价其复产预期。此外，短期内市场对于江西其余云母矿的担忧 也将随之减弱。供应扰动暂告段落后，市场将重回基本面逻辑。 供应方面，高价盘活了部分贸易商年初囤积的锂矿库存、并通过 代工的方式快速转化为碳酸锂，据调研了解，部分代工厂订单已 排至年底；同时中国市场的高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. The discussion on the energy consumption issue of industrial silicon in the Baotou meeting on Friday has no clear conclusion, and it is expected to be difficult to implement in a short time. The short - term price of industrial silicon may run between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely between 50,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - Industrial silicon: The Si2511 contract closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 contract closed at 53,610 yuan/ton, down 3,125 yuan/ton from last week [10][11]. 3.2 Energy Consumption Implementation Takes Time, and Silicon Wafer Prices Rise Again to Transfer Pressure Industrial Silicon - This week, 7 new furnaces were opened in Xinjiang, and the situation in other regions remained unchanged. Southern production remained stable and may enter the dry season at the end of October with some silicon factories reducing production. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.2 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.32 million tons. If the operation of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, industrial silicon may accumulate about 30,000 tons of inventory from September to October and may reduce inventory by about 100,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. However, if large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to reduce inventory during the dry season [2][12]. Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some devices were shut down for maintenance, and the weekly production was 48,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. The inventory was 47,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate at a low level [12]. Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated and declined this week. The quoted price of dense material from first - tier manufacturers was 55 yuan/kg, and that from second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material increased to 50 yuan/kg. The production limit in September has not been fully implemented, and the planned production is still about 128,000 tons. As of September 11, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 219,000 tons, mainly concentrated in two first - tier enterprises. The inventory of downstream silicon wafer factories reached 2 - 2.5 months. Affected by sales quotas, the supply - demand situation of polysilicon may be tighter. Considering the high production pressure of downstream sectors, the price of silicon material may remain flat or rise slightly. The new energy consumption standard is still in the drafting stage and will take time to implement [3][14]. Silicon Wafer - This week, the price of silicon wafers stabilized at a new level. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.30/1.40/1.65 yuan/piece. The production plan in September was 57.5GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.5GW. As of September 11, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 16.55GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3GW. The price of silicon wafers may rise further [15]. Battery Cell - The price of battery cells rose this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells rose to 0.31/0.3 yuan/watt, while that of G12R remained at 0.285 yuan/watt. Overseas demand drove up the price of M10 battery cells, and G12 benefited from the peak season of domestic traditional centralized demand. The production plan in September was 60GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.8GW. It is expected that the price of battery cells will remain stable in the short term [16]. Component - The price of components remained stable this week. The production plan in September was 50GW, a month - on - month increase of 1GW. Some component enterprises have plans to reduce production due to cost pressure. It is expected that the price of components will fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. 3.3 Investment Advice - Industrial silicon: The short - term price of industrial silicon may run between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to interval operation opportunities [4][19]. - Polysilicon: In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options after the rebound of the 11 - contract, and the arbitrage can pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4][19]. 3.4 Hot News Sorting - India reduced the goods and services tax (GST) on renewable energy components from 12% to 5%, which is expected to reduce the capital cost of solar and wind energy projects by about 5% [20]. - On September 14, leading enterprises raised the price of silicon wafers [20]. - On September 12, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the price mechanism to promote the nearby consumption of new energy power generation [20]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - A series of charts show the price, production, inventory, and profit data of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the casting aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots trended strongly last week. AD2511 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, a 1.8% increase from the previous week, and Baotai Group's ADC12 sales price rose 300 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton. With tight scrap aluminum supply and cost support, the sales price of alloy ingots is likely to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. For arbitrage, the previous long AD2511 and short AL2511 arbitrage orders can be held, but a reasonable stop - profit space should be set if the automobile market weakens [1][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival Continues to Decline for Weeks, Continuously Monitor Policies and Peak - Season Demand - Last week (09/08 - 09/12), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots trended strongly. AD2511 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, a 1.8% increase, and Baotai Group's ADC12 sales price rose 300 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton. The cost side provides strong support, and the profit has significantly narrowed [12] - This week, scrap aluminum prices generally trended strongly, rising 100 - 300 yuan. The prices of some raw materials for cast aluminum alloys increased significantly. With the macro - micro resonance of primary aluminum prices, scrap aluminum will follow the upward trend. Under the peak - season expectation, the demand for raw materials by enterprises is increasing, and the upward trend of scrap aluminum is expected to continue [15] 2. Recent Industry News Review - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. The primary alloy expanded steadily, while the recycled alloy was still below the boom - bust line [18] - In July 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 160,500 tons, a 3.15% month - on - month increase and an 18.68% year - on - year increase. Thailand and Japan were the main suppliers [18] - Four ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, requiring the rectification of illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [18] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.1 Scrap Aluminum: Arrival Continues to Decline, Price Remains High - This week, scrap aluminum prices generally trended strongly, with some raw materials for cast aluminum alloys rising significantly. The high price dampened the purchasing sentiment of some aluminum enterprises. With the macro - micro resonance of primary aluminum prices, scrap aluminum will follow the upward trend, but the increase is weaker than that of primary aluminum [15] 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy futures trended strongly, with a 1.8% increase. The spot price of Baotai also rose significantly. It is expected to remain strong in the short term. However, the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise, and most enterprises had insufficient short - term orders, weakening their pricing power [16] 3.3 Downstream: Weekly Sales of Various Automobile Brands are Weakening, Be Alert to the Risk of Unfulfilled Peak - Season Demand - The market still expects an improvement in demand, and enterprise orders are gradually recovering. However, the weekly sales data of various automobile brands show signs of weakening, and the automobile inventory warning index has increased month - on - month. There is a risk that the peak - season demand may not be fulfilled [2]