周度报告-国债期货 市场多空交织，国债震荡寻底 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡下跌 国 债 期 货 本周（09.08-09.14）国债期货震荡下跌。周一，虽然 8 月进出口 数据均不及预期，但周末利多股市因素较多且近期市场对基本 面不敏感，股市震荡上涨，国债期货震荡下跌。周二，受资金 面收敛影响，日内股市虽震荡下跌，但债市表现并不强。尾盘 市场担忧基金免税政策取消，指数型债基大额赎回，现券利率 上行。周三，8 月 CPI 同比增速不及市场预期，但债市对基本面 脱敏，基金赎回压力较大，债市大幅走弱。周四，虽然股票市 场强劲上涨，但资金面边际转松，市场期待央行通过重启公开 市场国债买卖等方式稳定市场情绪，国债期货多数由跌转涨。 周五，市场消息面相对平静，股市高位震荡，收益率曲线有所 修复、整体走平。尾盘央行公布的 8 月金融数据整体偏弱，现 券利率小幅下行。截至 9 月 12 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三 十年期国债期货主力合约结算价分别为 102.364、105.580、 107.680 和 115.160 元，分别较上周末变动-0.024、+0.000、-0.240 和-1.140 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided text does not contain any information regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US consumer price increase exceeded expectations in August, but the market still maintains the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is weakening [1][20]. - Driven by the better - than - expected orders of US stock Oracle, domestic AI stocks led a strong rebound, but the market is expected to continue in a tug - of - war [2]. - The bond market rally caused by new bond issuance is short - term, and the market adjustment is not over. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the bond market in September [3][27]. - The market is concerned about the USDA monthly supply - demand report on Friday. CONAB has raised the production and export forecasts of Brazilian soybeans, and there is a possibility of a transition from ENSO neutral to La Nina [4]. - Steel prices are expected to be in a weak shock pattern in the near future due to inventory accumulation and lower - than - expected apparent demand [5]. - For zinc, maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory truly bottoms out, and the short - selling logic of SHFE zinc may be realized through the rise of LME zinc [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. The US initial jobless claims reached a new high since October 23, 2021, and the CPI in August rebounded as expected [13][14][15]. - Short - term gold prices lack the impetus to break through, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary plans to add candidates to the Fed Chair list. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates, and the US CPI rose in August [17][18][19]. - The US dollar index is expected to continue to decline as the market maintains the interest rate cut expectation despite the rise in CPI [20][21]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - There are rumors that Mexico may impose a 50% tariff on Chinese - exported cars. The State Council approved 10 pilot projects for factor market - oriented reform [22][23]. - Domestic AI stocks led a rebound, but the market is expected to be in a tug - of - war. It is recommended to pay attention to trading volume changes and control long positions [2][23][24]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US CPI in August was basically in line with expectations. The labor market supports the Fed to continue interest rate cuts, and the market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts this year [25]. - US stocks are expected to be volatile and bullish under the interest rate cut expectation, but market volatility may increase [25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 292 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. A new 7 - year bond will be issued [26]. - The bond market rally due to new bond issuance is short - term. The market adjustment is not over. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the bond market in September [3][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB raised the production and export forecasts of Brazilian soybeans. Analysts expect the NOPA member soybean crushing volume in August to be 182.857 million bushels, and the import soybean auction was fully sold [29][30][31]. - The soybean meal futures price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report on Friday [32]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The SPPOMA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia from September 1 - 10 decreased by 3.17% month - on - month [33]. - The uncertainty in the oil market has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rates of the corrugated paper and boxboard paper industries increased, while the operating rates of the starch sugar industry decreased [34][35]. - In addition to weak supply and demand, regional price differences are also unfavorable to the rice - flour price difference in the short term [36]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date prices in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market were stable. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 rose by 2.14% [36][37]. - Red date prices are expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas and pre - festival replenishment [37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The consumption of corn in deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, and the raw material inventory decreased. The price of new corn in North China is weakening, while that in the Northeast remains strong [38]. - It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on corn in the medium term [39]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [39]. - It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies and have a bullish view on far - month contracts [40]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on September 11. The coal price is expected to continue to be weak due to weak thermal power demand and no new production control policies [41]. - The steam coal price is expected to continue to be weak [42]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Anglo American and Teck Resources will merge equally. The iron ore price is in a volatile market, and the raw material end has short - term support but faces upward pressure [43]. - Attention should be paid to the peak season in September - October and the pressure on steel mills to cut production [44]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 139,100 tons week - on - week. Steel prices are expected to be in a weak shock pattern in the near future [47]. - It is recommended to have a bearish view on steel prices in the short term [48]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vale plans to increase copper production through self - development. Panama plans to evaluate the restart of First Quantum's copper mine. Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year [49][50][51]. - The copper price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. It is recommended to have a bullish strategy on the single - side and wait and see on the arbitrage [52]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Shandong's new energy mechanism electricity price bidding results were announced. Polysilicon production restrictions started in September. The price increase of upstream products has not been smoothly transmitted to the terminal, and the photovoltaic terminal demand may decline [53][54]. - The futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity at about - 2000 yuan/ton [55]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan's 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project passed the energy - saving review. The price of industrial silicon is expected to be in the range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton in the short term [56][57]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the range - trading opportunities [57]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a deep discount, and the domestic lead social inventory decreased slightly. The lead price is expected to be volatile and weak [58]. - It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage opportunity before delivery [58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory increased. Maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory truly bottoms out [59][60]. - It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity, and maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory bottoms out [60]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Weiming Shengqing sold 3,526 tons of high - purity nickel plates in the first half of the year. The global nickel inventory is increasing, and the nickel price is expected to be volatile in the short term [61]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position trading in the range [62]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL's Jiaxiaowo lithium mine plans to resume production. The battery export in August decreased by 2.6% month - on - month. The market may quickly price in the resumption of production, but the price decline is limited before the actual resumption [63][64][65]. - It is recommended to switch to a bearish view, be cautious about short - selling in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies and reverse arbitrage in the medium term [66]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of domestic LPG increased, and the inventory increased. The LPG market has limited drivers, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [67][68][69]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price on September 11 was 63.28 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The CEA price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [70]. - The CEA price has room to fall in the short term [71]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The supply is stable, and the demand is moderate. The price may decline in the future [72][73]. - The increase of caustic soda spot price may be near the end, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [73]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was stable. The pulp market is expected to be weak and volatile due to poor fundamentals [74][75][76]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted. The PVC market is under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited [77]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price was stable. The PX supply - demand is expected to be in a de - stocking pattern in the medium - long term. It is recommended to try positive arbitrage between months [78][79][80]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable. The PTA price is expected to be volatile and the upward space is limited [81][82][83]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly production of styrene decreased. The short - term port inventory accumulation pressure of styrene has been alleviated, and the 2510 contract is in a volatile state [84][85]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly stable. The downstream demand is gradually transitioning to the off - season, and the processing fee is under pressure [87][88]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe was oscillating. The soda ash price is expected to be short - term weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies [89][90]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in the Shahe market decreased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on FG2601 and short on SA2601 [91][92]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - CMA CGM will not impose the "301 surcharge". The container freight rate is expected to continue to decline, and the 10 - contract still has downward space [93].

Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Critical Hubs Monitoring 20250911 [1] - Research Institute: Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute - Department: Black and Shipping Department - Analyst: Lan Xi - Qualification Number: F03086543 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0016590 Core Viewpoints - Asian ports: Chinese ports show a slight rebound, and the persistence of congestion deterioration needs attention; the ship turnover efficiency of Port Klang has slightly improved, but the congestion scale is still rising, and the risk of congestion deterioration remains high; Singapore Port has good ship operation conditions [2]. - European ports: With the end of summer in the Northern Hemisphere, the congestion in European ports may be improved, but the congestion pressure in German ports continues due to railway construction [2]. - North American ports: The operation status of North American ports is good [2]. Summary by Region Asian Ports - **Ship waiting and berthing time**: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships in Yangshan Port, Waigaoqiao, Ningbo Port, Qingdao Port, Singapore Port, and Port Klang are 24.8h/26.0h, 36.6h/25.8h, 20.7h/26.7h, 26.0h/26.8h, 4.1h/29.2h, and 7.0h/27.1h respectively [2]. - **Number of ships at anchor and berthing**: The latest number of container ships at anchor/berthing in Yangshan Port, Waigaoqiao, Ningbo Port, Singapore Port, and Port Klang are 24/29, 33/25, 24/35, 2/47, and 2/13 respectively [2]. - **Average turnover time**: The average turnover time of Yangshan Port is about 2.1 days, Ningbo Port is about 1.9 days, and Yantian Port is about 1.3 days [2]. - **Average time in port**: The average time in port of Yangshan Port is 50.4 hours, Ningbo Port is 45.6 hours, Singapore Port is 33.2 hours, Port Klang is 39.8 hours, etc. [6] European Ports - **Ship waiting and berthing time**: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships in Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremen, and Valencia are 4.3h/45.6h, 2.2h/39.2h, 30.3h/54.1h, 8.1h/28.7h, and 12.7h/32.2h respectively [2]. - **Number of ships at anchor and berthing**: The latest number of container ships at anchor/berthing in Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Valencia are 6/30, 2/14, 6/16, and 4/10 respectively [2]. - **Average time in port**: The average time in port of Rotterdam is 49.9 hours, Hamburg is 82.9 hours, Valencia is 56.0 hours, etc. [6] North American Ports - **Ship waiting and berthing time**: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships in Long Beach, Los Angeles, Tacoma, New York, Savannah, Norfolk, and Houston are 0h/104.3h, 0h/106.0h, 0h/101.5h, 8.3h/52.5h, 35.6h/34.0h, 29.0h/23.2h, and 9.2h/45.0h respectively [2]. - **Number of ships at anchor and berthing**: The number of container ships at anchor/berthing in Long Beach and Los Angeles is 1/18, and in New York is 1/9 [2]. - **Average time in port**: The average time in port of Long Beach is 116.3 hours, Los Angeles is 106.0 hours, New York is 56.4 hours, etc. [6] Other Information - **Large - ship arrival situation**: The report monitors the arrival situation of large - scale container ships in ports such as Yangshan Port, Ningbo Port, and Singapore Port, as well as the arrival situation of 1.2w+ container ships of different alliances in Asian, Northwest European, and Mediterranean ports [40][43][45]. - **Canal passage situation**: The report also monitors the passage situation of container ships in the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - A-shares had a slight rebound on low volume, with market trading volume dropping to the 2 trillion level, and market participation enthusiasm declined rapidly. It is recommended to view this market as a phased adjustment and pay attention to changes in trading volume [1][14]. - The much lower-than-expected US PPI in August led to a resurgence in interest rate cut expectations, an increase in AI capital expenditure, and an upward trend in market risk appetite. The Dow underperformed the Nasdaq and the S&P [2][16]. - Although the anti - involution policy has achieved some results, the terminal demand of residents remains weak, and the low - price phenomenon still exists. The bond market is currently in a headwind period, and it is recommended to manage risks [3][19]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, the price of palm oil has a complex situation due to factors such as production, inventory, and export; the price of iron ore is expected to be volatile in the short - term and under pressure in the long - term; the price of copper is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term [4][5][31][62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Jiangxi Province issued measures to develop producer services, aiming to increase the proportion of producer service added - value in service industry to about 52% by 2030 [13]. - China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. A - shares had a slight rebound on low volume. It is recommended to reduce long positions in stock index futures [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - OpenAI signed a $300 billion computing agreement with Oracle, which will start implementation in 2027 [15]. - The US PPI in August was much lower than expected. Interest rate cut expectations increased, but the market may be more volatile due to economic data and interest rate cut expectation swings [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 304 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 10, with a net investment of 74.9 billion yuan. The bond market is currently in a headwind period, and it is recommended to have a bearish view in the short - term [19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's new - crop soybean planting area is expected to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares. The market is waiting for the USDA's export sales report and monthly supply - demand report. The futures price is expected to be volatile [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Some senators in the US are trying to prevent Trump from changing renewable fuel obligations. Canada is discussing relaxing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased in August, and its export in September decreased. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term but wait for policy stability [24][26][27]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is weak. The supply has basically returned to normal, and the demand side is under pressure. The futures price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [28][29]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable on September 10. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile in a narrow range [30]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Japanese companies are acquiring stakes in an iron ore project in Western Australia. The price of iron ore is expected to be volatile in the short - term and under pressure in the long - term due to factors such as finished product inventory and terminal demand [31][32]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Some pig - raising companies' production costs have decreased. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and be bullish on far - month contracts [33][34][35]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Many projects started in August. The steel price is expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as supply recovery and uncertain terminal demand [36][37][38]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of corn starch is decreasing seasonally. However, the price is affected by factors such as weak supply - demand and regional price differences [40]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn shows a differentiated trend. It is recommended to have a bearish view in the medium - term [41]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the market is stable. The new - season production is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [42][44]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of lead is affected by factors such as the decline in recycled lead production, high inventory, and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see on the long side and consider positive arbitrage opportunities [45]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The CZSPT released the purchase guidance price for imported zinc concentrates. The domestic fundamental situation is weak, and the overseas inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the long side and consider positive arbitrage opportunities [47][48]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A company is selling a stake in its subsidiary. The production of polysilicon in September is limited, but the downstream resistance to high - priced silicon materials is strong. It is recommended to short the PS2511 contract on rallies and consider reverse arbitrage opportunities [49][50][51]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The trading rules of industrial silicon futures have been adjusted. The production and inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be in the range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - bound trading opportunities [52][53]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased on September 10. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading [54][55]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Two companies are about to reach an agreement on joint lithium mining. The export of lithium spodumene in Brazil decreased in August. It is recommended to have a bearish view, be cautious in short - term shorting, and consider reverse arbitrage opportunities [57][58][59]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Some countries are promoting copper - related mining and investment projects. The price of copper is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see on arbitrage [60][61][63]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term due to factors such as the increase in Middle East FOB prices and the impact of sanctions on freight [64][65][66]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. The price of crude oil is expected to be volatile in a range in the short - term due to factors such as geopolitical risks and supply - demand [67][68][69]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The price of PX continued to rise. It is expected to be in a de - stocking pattern in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to adjust the position on the long side and try positive arbitrage between months [70][71][72]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased locally. The PTA price is expected to be volatile and adjusted in the short - term due to factors such as supply - demand and inventory [73][74][75]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased slightly. The demand is weak, and the supply is stable. It is expected that the spot price increase may end soon, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [76][77]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mainly stable. The market is expected to be weakly volatile due to the poor fundamental situation [78][79]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder is slightly adjusted. The fundamental situation is under pressure in the short - term, but the downward space is limited [80][81]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly. The export game is fading, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downward risk [82][83][84]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area is stable. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [85][86][87]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, but the potential over - stocking problem in the long - term needs attention [88][89][90]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei was stable on September 10. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [91][92]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - A container ship accident occurred in the US. The container freight rate is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions in the October contract [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bearish, with an expected decline of 5 - 15% in the short, medium, and long - term [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve is a special product of special times. To solve serious problems of the government or cope with extreme economic pressure, the Fed will sacrifice relatively unimportant parts of monetary policy (usually inflation and the value of the domestic currency) to achieve relatively low interest rates and economic growth [4][75]. - It is expected that the Fed will use inflation to exchange for economic growth again. The US dollar index will trend downwards due to long - term low real interest rates and high inflation. The market underestimates the degree of the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [3][5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fed Politicalization 3.1.1 Fed Politicalization during World War II - To finance the war, the US government needed to issue a large amount of national debt and have huge fiscal expenditures, which would lead to high interest rates and high inflation. The Fed implemented the yield curve control (YCC) policy, setting the 10 - year interest rate cap at 2.5% and the short - term Treasury bill rate at 0.375% [14][17]. - The YCC policy stabilized the interest rate level and reduced the government's financing cost, but it could not solve the inflation problem. The US also adopted production control, price and wage control, increased marginal tax rates, and export and foreign exchange controls, but inflation still rose significantly [18]. - The high inflation was mainly caused by the government's fiscal deficit. The Fed printed money to fill the gap. The US was in a wartime economic state of high deficit, high inflation, high money growth, and low unemployment. The Fed gave up inflation management to serve government financing [25][32]. - After the war, the Fed and the Treasury had a conflict over interest rate control. In 1951, the Fed won, and the Treasury absorbed investors' losses by replacing long - term US bonds [33]. 3.1.2 Fed Politicalization during the Stagflation Period in the 1970s - Nixon pressured Fed Chairman Burns to prioritize the economy over inflation. Burns cut interest rates, which helped Nixon's re - election but led to rising inflation. Later, the Fed raised interest rates, but inflation was not well - controlled due to the loss of credibility [34][37]. - Carter also pressured the Fed to maintain low interest rates to reduce unemployment. The Fed's monetary policy remained loose, and the M1 growth rate was very high, resulting in long - term high inflation [39]. - The Fed's politicalization in the 1970s led to a large - scale stagflation. The US dollar weakened significantly, financial assets performed poorly, and commodities, especially precious metals, outperformed stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. This also promoted the replacement of Keynesianism with monetarism and the rise of central bank independence [49]. 3.1.3 Post - COVID - 19 Fed Politicalization Trend - The COVID - 19 pandemic led to a collapse of the global economic growth framework. The US government's large - scale fiscal stimulus increased government debt and inflation. The Fed raised interest rates, increasing the government's debt interest payments and making the US debt problem more prominent [51]. - The Trump administration's tariff policy increased inflation pressure. The Fed is expected to prioritize maintaining low interest rates, tolerate inflation, and may introduce yield curve control to reduce the interest rate center and relieve the US debt pressure [54][62]. - The current US economic situation has differences and similarities with the previous two Fed politicalization periods. The Fed's politicalization degree is expected to increase gradually, and the introduction of yield curve control will be a sign of accelerated politicalization [63]. 3.2 Summary - The Fed's politicalization is a special response to special economic situations. It sacrifices inflation and the value of the domestic currency for low interest rates and economic growth. The process is painful for the public, and the Fed's reputation is at risk [4][75]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Due to the expected long - term low real interest rates and high inflation, the US dollar index will trend downwards. It is recommended to hold precious metals and non - ferrous commodities. The market underestimates the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [5][76].

日度报告——综合晨报 美国非农就业年度大幅度下修，EIA 公布短期 能源展望报告 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-09-10 美国非农就业年度大幅度下修，劳动力市场比预期更弱，美元 指数继续下行。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 2470 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 即使股票市场走弱，但债市也并未上涨，当前的债券市场情绪 依然较弱。展望后市，9 月债市依旧以震荡偏弱为主。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 就业增长下修 91.1 万人 美国经济根基比预想的更不稳 综 农产品（豆粕） 合 分析师预计 USDA 将下调美豆单产预估 晨 报 周五 USDA 将公布月度供需报告，市场预计美豆单产将下调， 但总产仍为历史高位，期末库存同样小幅下调。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 宁德时代召开枧下窝锂矿复产会议，预计很快复产 枧下窝复产的新闻将大幅弱化市场对供应风险的担忧、回归现 实交易。 能源化工（原油） EIA 对美国产量增速预测基本维持不变。 油价震荡微涨，中东地缘冲突风险有上升迹象。 | 曹璐 | 资深分析师 | （化工） | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业 ...

热点报告-胶版印刷纸 胶版印刷纸期货上市系列报告（四）： 上市策略建议 ★胶版印刷纸期货挂牌基准价 胶版印刷纸期货将于 2025 年 9 月 10 日（周三）在上海期货交易所 正式挂牌交易。首批上市交易的胶版印刷纸期货合约为 OP2601、 OP2602、OP2603、OP2604、OP2605、OP2606、OP2607 和 OP2608。 胶版印刷纸期货首批上市交易合约的挂牌基准价为 4218 元/吨。 ★胶版印刷纸期货供需格局现状及展望 能 源 化 双胶纸行业产能过剩，供需矛盾突出。未来 1-2 年，供需两个维度 均缺乏带动景气回升的核心驱动力，行业大概率将延续低迷状态。 短期来看，9 月双胶纸需求支撑不足叠加晨鸣装置复产，供应压力 边际增加；10-11 月出版招标旺季或将给价格带来一定支撑。 工 ★投资建议 ①单边策略：首批合约挂牌价 4218 元/吨，贴水于当前主流交割品 现货价格近 300 元/吨，静态估值偏低。但考虑到双胶纸行业供应 过剩加剧，长期来看价格中枢仍处在下行通道当中，挂牌价基本计 价了市场的悲观预期。故短期多空博弈或加大，上市初期关注 （4000，4400）区间操作机会，长周期以逢高 ...

热点报告—锌/铅 smingfTable_Title] 海外铅锌矿企业季度运营分析： 锌矿延续增产，铅矿表现欠佳 | | | [★Ta2bQle2_5S锌um精m矿ar增y] 复产超预期，铅精矿增量不及预期 海外样本矿企 2Q25 锌精矿产量为 136.9 万金属吨，同比增加 18.5 万金属吨(YoY+15.7%)；铅精矿产量为 31.1 万金属吨，同比微增 0.03 万金属吨(YoY+0.09%)。产量增加的主要原因在于：①大型 项目和新项目复爬产；②部分项目增产；③品位和回收率上升； ④去年同期基数较低；⑤不可抗力因素减少。产量下降的主要原 因包括：①矿石品位下降；②外部不可抗力；③运营效率下降。 2Q25 海外炼厂延续主动减产，锌锭产量同比录减，环比微增。 ★产量指引小幅下调，铅锌矿 TC 延续分化 有 色 2Q25 样本企业合计产量指引录得小幅下调，产量指引同比增速 从 4.7%降至 4.0%（占海外矿产量的 31.5%）。 金 属 锌精矿 TC：三季度海外锌矿复增产趋势未变，海外炼厂则维持 减产背景，进口 TC 或将继续上行。国内存有原料消耗预期，国 内 TC 或持稳运行。锌精矿复产大周期尚未完结 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国消费者对就业担忧加剧，8 月中国进出口 数据不及预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-09-09 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 纽约联储：8 月美国消费者对就业市场担忧加剧 纽约联储最新报告显示消费者对于就业市场担忧加剧，这意味 着劳动力市场下行压力加大，美元继续看跌。 USDA 下调美豆优良率 1%至 64%。巴西新作大豆播种陆续展开， 9 月第一周日均出口量低于去年 9 月。国内 8 月进口再次刷新同 期最高，油厂豆粕库存继续上升。 黑色金属（动力煤） 环渤海八港库存 2077 万吨 需求回落，供应端政策真空期，预计短期煤价季节性震荡回落， 下方 650 元左右支撑短期可靠。 8 月出口增 4.4%，进口增 1.3% 9 月 8 日 A 股放量上涨，继续收复前期跌幅，市场情绪依然亢奋。 短期内多头情绪或仍有延续。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 合 央行开展了 1915 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 晨 报 市场回归基本面交易尚需时日，预计近期风险偏好难下降，债 市债市震荡偏弱。 农产品（豆粕） 美豆优良率下降 1%至 64% 宏观策略（股指期货） 有色金属（铅） 铅锭社 ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 光伏玻璃产销向好，新月价格提涨幅度较大 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 9 月 8 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/9/5 当周）： 截至 9 月 5 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格为 13 元/平方米，环比上周上涨 2 元/平方米；3.2mm 镀膜主流价 格为 21 元/平方米，环比上周上涨 3 元/平方米。9 月光伏玻璃 新价环比涨幅较大，部分紧缺规格出现抢货情况，推动行业涨价 落地，目前成交较为顺畅。 能 源 上周行业供给端保持稳定，目前光伏玻璃在产产能 88580 吨/日， 产能利用率 68.37%，当前产能利用率处于低位。上周无光伏玻 璃厂家恢复窑口，堵窑量维持稳定，预计下周光伏玻璃行业供给 将小幅增长。 化 工 上周光伏玻璃需求端表现继续向好，部分 8 月下定的订单未发 货，加上 9 月仍有余单需要交付，短期光伏玻璃市场呈现供不应 求局面，部分紧缺规格被加价购买。 上周光伏玻璃厂家库存继续下滑，主要有两方面原因：一是组件 出口退税政策的不确定性依然存在，部分厂家仍在采买；二是新 月下游组件排产仍在高位。目前光伏玻璃厂家出货向 ...