1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, various sectors in the market are influenced by multiple factors including economic policies, international trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, in the financial market, the Fed's potential policy framework changes affect the performance of the US dollar index and US stock index futures; in the commodity market, supply - demand relationships in industries such as steel, copper, and agricultural products determine price trends [14][22][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The release of the urban renewal action plan clarifies the path for domestic economic support, and fixed - asset investment will maintain a high proportion in the economy. Attention should be paid to the marginal change of PPI to determine the elasticity of corporate profit margins. It is recommended to allocate large, medium, and small - cap stock indices evenly [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated sharply, first falling then rising and finally closing higher. With the easing of tariffs and geopolitical military conflicts, funds are flowing out of gold. The short - term gold price is still in the adjustment process, not fully stabilized, and the increased volatility makes trading more difficult. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of price decline and wait before bottom - fishing [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is preparing to modify its policy framework, which means a significant change in future policy thinking. The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to expect the US dollar index to oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's change in the monetary framework may increase its tolerance for inflation, and high inflation and high interest rates may exist for a longer period. Economic data shows that inflation and consumption data continue to weaken, and market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased. The short - term market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index fluctuates strongly, but it is recommended to treat it as range - bound due to potential negotiation uncertainties [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Market concerns about the US biodiesel policy have led to a significant decline in the prices of US soybean oil and US soybean futures. Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts have been raised. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, US biodiesel policy, and weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased this week, but the marginal weakness in the manufacturing terminal has not been completely reversed. Steel prices are in a stage of rebound, but lack the momentum for a sharp rise. It is recommended to hold a light position in the short term, wait for the market to rebound, and pay attention to changes in the export end [31][32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry has declined, and inventory has decreased slightly. The factors affecting the CS - C futures spread are complex, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating weakly. With the improvement of the macro - environment, coking coal may stabilize with the overall black metal sector in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not changed, and attention should be paid to demand changes [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises have slightly increased, while the raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises has declined. It is recommended to hold the previously entered 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads, and pay attention to the results of import auctions [36][37]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Foran Mining is promoting the McIlvenna Bay copper - zinc project. US economic data is weakening marginally, and the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising. Domestic short - term inventory is still being depleted. Copper prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to conduct short - term band operations and wait and see for arbitrage [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Considering the delayed resumption of production at the southwest base of leading enterprises and the planned production cuts and overhauls of some enterprises, the polysilicon production plan for May has been revised down. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and focus on arbitrage strategies [44]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - There are rumors that northern large - scale factories plan to resume production, and some silicon factories in Sichuan are gradually resuming production. Demand is still weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [45][46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market risk appetite has been repaired, but the mine price has not stabilized, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price rebounds. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased significantly. Under the intertwined situation of multiple factors, there is no clear unilateral logic for lead prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc has increased. The short - term spot market is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for previous short positions, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rebounds for those not yet entered [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to band operations within the range [59]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and both refinery and port inventories are accumulating. The price has insufficient upward driving force, and attention should be paid to changes in Shandong spot prices and factory warehouse behaviors [61]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - It is recommended to continue to be bearish on NYMEX natural gas [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - After a short - term rapid rise, PTA prices may start to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended that long positions consider taking profit and waiting and seeing [69][70]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The spot price of caustic soda is still strong in the short term, and the futures price is also expected to be strong [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the pulp futures price to stabilize and rebound [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the PVC price to stabilize and rebound [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Due to supply pressure, the processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low [78]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Short - term maintenance of soda ash plants may support the spot and futures prices, but the medium - term view is to short on price rebounds [79]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Under the situation of weak reality and the absence of favorable policies, the glass futures price will remain in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to changes in real - estate policies [81].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for nickel is "Oscillation" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current range - bound oscillation pattern of nickel may continue in the short - term. Band trading opportunities can be focused on. When the factors of "geopolitical risk + concentrated supply" are present in the nickel industry chain, the trading focus is recommended to be on seizing opportunities to go long at low prices, while closely tracking the trend of ore prices [5][45][46] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Event Overview - The first - quarter operation reports of most overseas nickel enterprises have been gradually disclosed recently. By analyzing the nickel ore production in the latest financial reports, different evolution patterns of laterite nickel ore and sulfide nickel ore are deduced, and some thoughts on recent trading rhythms are provided [11] 2. Event Analysis 2.1 Indonesia Laterite Nickel Ore Supply Tight, Focus on Quota Release Rhythm - Harita Nickel: In Q1 2025, the sales volume of limonite reached 3.71 million wet tons and saprolite reached 1.78 million wet tons, with a total year - on - year increase of 52%. The joint - venture project KPS expanded production to 4 furnaces in Q1 2025, and 6 HPAL production lines were in stable over - production [12] - PT Vale: In Q1 2025, nickel production in the Indonesian production area decreased by 24% year - on - year to 14,200 metal tons, reflecting the tight supply of Indonesian nickel ore and the rising premium [12] - Antam: In Q1 2025, the quarterly nickel ore production reached a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 221% to 4.63 million wet tons and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 76% [14] - Nickel Industries: In Q1 2025, nickel ore production increased by 82% year - on - year but decreased by 21.5% quarter - on - quarter to 5.649 million wet tons. The company is confident of getting the RKAB increase approved in the second half of the year [15] - WedaBay Nickel: In Q1 2025, the nickel ore production increased by 3.2% year - on - year to 9.169 million wet tons. The RKAB quota obtained in 2025 has decreased significantly compared with last year, with the risk of production falling short of expectations [15] - Merdeka (MBMA): In Q1 2025, the production of saprolite increased by 190% year - on - year to 1.3 million wet tons, and limonite increased by 54% to 1.8 million wet tons. The cash cost of saprolite decreased year - on - year, while that of limonite increased [17] 2.2 Sulfide Nickel Ore Production Cutback Rhythm Slows - Russia: In Q1 2025, nickel production decreased by 1.1% year - on - year to 41,600 tons. The company expects the total refined nickel production in 2025 to be 204,000 - 211,000 tons, with a higher probability of being on the left side of the range [26] - Vale: The total nickel production reached 42,900 metal tons in Q1 2025, an increase of 4,400 metal tons year - on - year, with a 4% decrease in total cost [26] - Australia: After the shutdown of high - cost nickel ore projects in 2024, only two nickel ore projects are currently in operation, and the Nova project is expected to stop production at the end of 2026 due to grade depletion. The production of operating projects in Q1 2025 remained low [29] 3. Investment Advice - Laterite nickel ore: Since the beginning of 2025, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore has been tight. Some leading mining enterprises have good year - on - year growth, mainly due to the slow release of quotas last year. The core logic is that mines with new projects will get corresponding incremental quotas, while large mines cut quotas to support small mines. The approved RKAB quota is less than the previous news, and the supply may remain tight throughout the year [40] - Trading: The tight supply expectation of Indonesian ore may last throughout the year. The current range - bound oscillation pattern may continue in the short - term. The short - side logic focuses on the loosening of ore supply, while the long - side logic emphasizes the tight ore supply and potential production cuts. It is recommended to focus on band trading opportunities and pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices [45][46]

日度报告——综合晨报 中国 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-15 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储副主席：预计经济增长将放缓，通胀或反弹但待观察 美联储官员表态经济稳健，因此不急于降息，美联储官员对于 经济短期看法明显乐观，美元维持震荡。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 韩国与美国就外汇政策展开对话 美国与中东国家的协议继续支撑科技板块上涨，股指表现分化， 纳指明显强于标普 500 和道琼斯指数。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 合 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 晨 报 虽然财政正在积极发力，但私人部门仍然缺乏主动投融资意愿。 基本面对债市的影响依然是偏多的。 黑色金属（动力煤） 5 月 14 日北港市场动力煤价格弱势运行 伴随港口集中疏港，煤价下行压力一次性释放。后期来看，根 据天气预估，此轮夏季或再次呈现高温，火电增速有望在夏季 转至同比正增长。需求季节性回转将接替港口降库完成，煤 农产品（豆粕） 美国建议延长生物燃料税收抵免 美国众议院提议延长生物燃料税收抵免至 2031 年底，ANEC 将 巴西 5 月出口预估上调至 1426 万吨。昨日国内豆粕现货稳中有 跌 ...

热点报告——液化石油气 中美关税阶段性缓和，内外盘定价逻辑分化 | | [Table液_R化an石k]油气：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 14 | 日 [Table_Analyser] | | 走势评级： 报告日期： | | | | | | | [Table_Summary] ★中美关税缓和超预期，FEI/CP 价差显著收窄 关税缓和对国际纸货价格产生了明显的影响，中国进口美国货 可能性的提升支撑 6 月 FEI 纸货价格大幅上涨，同时此前 CP 价 格来自中国寻求美国货替代来源的支撑预期部分消退下有所回 落，FEI-CP 价差走强，但并未走强至对等关税加征前水平，6 月合约两者价差走强至-20 美元/吨后上行乏力。 能 源 结合当前的 LPG 商品基本面以及宏观环境仍存在不确定性的整 体情景，我们预计短期 FEI 向上和 CP 向下的进一步驱动相对有 限，CP 预计仍将较 FEI 表现偏强。 与 碳 ★ C4 需求疲弱叠加仓单压制下，关税缓和对内盘价格影响有限 中 和 相对于 ...

热点报告—锌 [★Ta宏bl观e_面Su：mm宏a观ry]利多阶段性出清，关税缓和递延需求走弱预期 关税缓和有几率带动锌终端需求发动新一轮抢出口，需求走弱预 期将有所递延。但即便排除关税，海外反倾销举措、买单出口等 因素依然会对锌下游出口形成压制。国内降准降息落地后，到下 一次联储降息前或存在政策真空期，宏观利多基本阶段性出清。 利多阶段性出清，基本面拐点将至 ★供应端：国内供应维持偏强释放预期 有 色 金 1Q25 海外出矿表现较好，大型项目和新项目增复产相对顺利， 部分海外炼厂进行主动减产，后续或有更多锌矿能流入国内。按 现有原料库存来估算，即便炼厂维持 4 月高位产量，矿端也难在 三季度中期前出现明显紧缺。在原料充裕和利润修复的双重支撑 下，炼厂具有较强的开工动能，预计 5 月下旬锌锭产量将有所修 复，且比价打开时间和幅度略超预期，后续或有更多进口锌流入。 属 ★需求端：内需承压预期递延而非消除 宏观来看，目前锌需求处于季节性走弱过程中。中观来看，新增 专项债实际发行规模和速度不及预期，基建实物工作量表现偏弱 且后续增量有限，关税缓和对耐用消费品的提振仍需持续观察。 微观来看，下游厂商受关税缓和刺激和担 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the US reached a tariff consensus, with both sides significantly reducing tariff levels, leading to a notable increase in market risk appetite [1][17]. - The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations has had a wide - ranging impact on various financial and commodity markets, including changes in prices and market sentiment [2][5]. - The long - term bullish logic of the bond market remains unchanged, and the impact of the easing of trade conflicts is mainly concentrated on the expected level [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed official Goolsbee believes tariffs will still cause stagflation. Gold prices continued to decline by over 3%, as the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, geopolitical military conflicts weakened, and market risk aversion eased [2][12]. - Short - term gold prices are under pressure and are expected to have further downward space [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "grand tax - cut bill" plans to cut taxes by over $4 trillion in the next decade and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion. Trump hinted at possibly participating in the Russia - Ukraine leaders' talks [15][16]. - The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term due to the Sino - US tariff consensus and increased market risk appetite [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed Governor Kugler believes that Trump's tariff policy may still push up inflation and drag down economic growth. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tariff levels [19][21]. - The short - term strength of US stocks is supported by the easing of tariff negotiations, but there may be fluctuations in the subsequent negotiation process [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Sino - US economic and trade talks made significant progress, and the central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [22][23]. - The long - term bullish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US cotton in 25/26 will increase slightly, and the global ending stocks will remain flat, with a bearish impact on the international cotton market [4][27]. - After the Sino - US consultations, Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate after a short - term bullish boost. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of domestic cotton commercial inventory depletion and Sino - US trade negotiations [29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in 25/26 are significantly lower than expected, and the soybean planting rate is higher than expected. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased [30][31]. - The easing of Sino - US relations will lead to a situation of weak domestic and strong foreign markets, and soybean meal spot prices will remain under pressure [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch remains high and firm. It is recommended to wait and see due to the complex influencing factors of the CS - C spread [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot prices of wheat and corn have risen. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 07 contract and positive spreads in 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 contracts [34][35]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market fluctuates. The short - term price of coking coal may stabilize with the improvement of the macro - environment, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals remain unchanged [36][37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Sino - US trade negotiation progress drove up steel prices. The sales volume of excavators in April increased year - on - year, and the production and sales of automobiles from January to April exceeded 10 million for the first time [5][39]. - Steel prices are expected to continue the rebound pattern in the near future, and it is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term [41][42]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - High - grade silver - copper ore was discovered in Ireland's Ballywire multi - metal mine. Yunnan Copper plans to buy a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining [42][43]. - The Sino - US tariff reduction is beneficial to copper prices, but the weakening fundamentals will limit the increase. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [6][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots shows a slight downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spreads [48][49]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The production of zinc by Zijin Mining in the first quarter decreased, while New Century's zinc concentrate production increased. The inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased [50][52]. - Zinc has the value of short - selling allocation. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and high - level option selling opportunities [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are rumors that leading enterprises plan to control production and support prices. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the supply side and the possibility of demand exceeding expectations from May to June [55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of 97 - grade silicon continues to decrease. It is recommended to partially stop profits on previous short positions and not to buy on the left side [57]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The installed capacity of power batteries in April increased year - on - year. Short - term fundamentals are mixed, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium - and long - term [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesian nickel enterprises are preparing for the potential impact of the Philippine nickel ore export ban. The price of nickel is expected to fluctuate within the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [60][62]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The reduction of China's import tariffs on the US has a positive impact on the international LPG market. Long - term FEI price increase momentum may be insufficient, and policy changes should be closely monitored [64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq may cut oil exports slightly. The improvement of market risk appetite supports short - term oil prices, but supply - side risks still exist [65][66]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA increased, and the basis strengthened. PTA is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [67][68]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory accumulation of asphalt has slowed down. The futures price of asphalt is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The sowing progress of spring crops in Sichuan is over half. The urea market is expected to focus on exports, and the 9/1 spread is in a positive spread pattern in the short - to - medium - term [71][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports decreased. Short - term styrene may continue to rebound, and the medium - term depends on the recovery of 3S orders [74][76]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising, and the inventory is low. The short - term caustic soda futures price is expected to be strong [77][78]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp shows a differentiated trend. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs may drive the pulp futures price to rebound [79][81]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC in the domestic market slightly decreased. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs may drive the PVC price to rebound [82][83]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories have increased. Due to supply pressure, the processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low [84][86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term and pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract in the short - term [87]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Guangdong market remained stable. The glass futures price is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 18th week of 2025 (April 28 - May 4), the retail sales of passenger cars reached 420,000, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 203,000, a year - on - year increase of 38.4%. The new energy penetration rate was 48.4%, up 7.2 percentage points from the same period last year and down 4.6 percentage points from the previous week. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars have been 6.874 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, and the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger cars have been 3.347 million, a year - on - year increase of 32.5%. The cumulative new energy penetration rate is 48.7% [2][13]. - The demand in the new energy vehicle market is clearly differentiated. Leading brands have consolidated their leading positions, but the market pattern is not fixed. New brands have brought new variables, and traditional car companies are achieving excellent performance in new energy sales [3][23]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Passenger Car Market Weekly Overview - **Overall Sales and Penetration Rate**: In the 18th week of 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars were 420,000, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 203,000, a year - on - year increase of 38.4%. The new energy penetration rate was 48.4%, up 7.2 percentage points from the same period last year and down 4.6 percentage points from the previous week. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars have been 6.874 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, and the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger cars have been 3.347 million, a year - on - year increase of 32.5%. The cumulative new energy penetration rate is 48.7% [2][13]. - **Sales by Power Type**: Among passenger cars, traditional fuel, hybrid, and new energy vehicles sold 196,000, 20,000, and 203,000 respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 0.6%, 34.5%, and 38.4% respectively, accounting for 46.8%, 4.8%, and 48.4% of passenger cars. Among new energy passenger cars, pure - electric, plug - in hybrid, and extended - range vehicles sold 115,000, 64,000, and 25,000 respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 34.0%, 31.7%, and 92.5% respectively, accounting for 56.5%, 31.3%, and 12.2% of new energy passenger cars [18]. - **Sales by Production Attribute**: Among passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands sold 264,000 and 156,000 respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 31.6% and - 0.4% respectively, accounting for 62.9% and 37.1% of passenger cars. Among new energy passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands sold 187,000 and 17,000 respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 47.3% and - 18.0% respectively, accounting for 91.9% and 8.1% of new energy passenger cars [18]. 3.2 Key New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers' Sales Analysis 3.2.1 BYD - Weekly sales were 65,000, with BYD brand selling 62,000, and Denza, Fangchengbao, and Yangwang brands selling 3,000, 2,000, and 19 respectively. Since March 2022, BYD has stopped the production of fuel vehicles and focused on new energy vehicles. Since March this year, it has released the super e - platform and launched new cars such as Denza N9, Yangwang U7, and Fangchengbao Titanium 3 [24]. 3.2.2 Geely Automobile - Weekly sales were 40,000, with 22,000 being new energy vehicles (3,000 from the ZEEKR brand), and the electrification rate reached about 55%. In 2024, the company released the "Taizhou Declaration". The Geometry brand was incorporated into the Galaxy brand. Recently, Geely acquired ZEEKR. The 2025 sales target is 2.71 million, with Geely, ZEEKR, and Lynk & Co brands targeting 2 million, 320,000, and 390,000 respectively, and the new energy vehicle sales target is 1.5 million [27]. 3.2.3 SAIC - GM - Wuling - The overall weekly sales of passenger cars were 14,000, with 12,000 being new energy vehicles, and the electrification rate was about 86%. Recently, Wuling Hongguang launched an extended - range version, and Baojun launched the "Baojun Xiangjing" with plug - in hybrid and pure - electric options, but pure - electric models still dominate in sales [35]. 3.2.4 Changan Automobile - The overall weekly sales of passenger cars were 24,000, with 11,000 being new energy vehicles, and the electrification rate was about 47%. Its new energy brands Shenlan and Qiyuan sold more than 4,000 and 3,000 respectively. In addition, Avita, a joint venture with Huawei and CATL, sold about 2,000 [40]. 3.2.5 Chery Automobile - The overall weekly sales of passenger cars were 24,000, with 7,000 being new energy vehicles, and the electrification rate was about 30%. Its new energy brands iCAR, Chery New Energy, and Zhijie (a brand under Hongmeng Zhixing) each sold about 1,000 [48]. 3.2.6 Tesla - The sales of Tesla (China) in that week were 7,324. Model 3 sold 1,987 and Model Y sold 5,337. This year, Tesla has launched multiple promotions, such as the "biggest discount package ever" for Model 3 after the Spring Festival and new promotions in April [54]. 3.2.7 New - Force Car Manufacturers - Li Auto sold 11,000, mostly L - series models. Wenjie sold about 7,000, with a significant month - on - month increase. The new car M8 was launched on April 16 and started delivery on April 20. Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and XPeng each sold about 6,000, NIO sold about 5,000, and Aion sold about 4,000 [56][57].

周度报告——光伏玻璃 5 月份新月价格较 4 月有一定幅度下滑，行业低价产品较前期有 所增多。随着后续供需差进一步扩大，光伏玻璃价格仍存在下行 风险。 供增需减背景下，光伏玻璃价格走弱 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 5 月 12 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/5/9 当周）： 截至 5 月 9 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格为 13.5 元/平米，环比上周下跌；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 21.5 元/ 平米，亦环比上周下跌。 五一假期期间有一条产线保窑，暂不出产品。预计本周有 1-2 条 前期新投产线将引头子出玻璃，行业产量呈上行趋势。目前来看， 短期内暂无企业存在新投产计划。 能 源 五一假期后组件端表现偏弱，随着光伏抢装需求快速退潮，5 月 组件排产计划迎来下调，行业进入深度调整期，对于光伏玻璃消 费相应减少。 化 工 进入 5 月份，随着光伏玻璃供给量回升至高位，而需求较 4 月整 体有所下滑，供需差进一步加大，行业库存开始呈上行趋势。预 计本周行业需求难有好转，且不排除组件端持续减产的可能，光 伏玻璃厂家走货压力或进一步加大。 ★ 供需分析： ...

日度报告——综合晨报 中美贸易谈判预计取得进展，美联储强调稳 定通胀重要性 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-12 宏观策略（黄金） 4 月中国 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降 2.7% 综 合 在散户交投活跃度高涨、消息面驱动的背景下，通胀压力和企 业业绩压力被市场忽视。当前市场估值水平已经修复至历史中 值附近，已经难言便宜，行情持续冲高将逐渐积累风险。 晨 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 报 美联储威廉姆斯强调稳定通胀重要 中美关税谈判达成共识，有望进行进一步谈判，对短期风险偏 好构成支持，美国股指期货涨幅近 1%。 黑色金属（动力煤） 2025 年 3 月日本煤炭进口 1237.98 万吨 中美贸易谈判取得进展 金价周五走势震荡表现偏弱，中美高层贸易谈判取得进展推动 金价周一开盘走低，关税问题和地缘军事冲突短期存在改善空 间，黄金短期仍有回调空间。 宏观策略（股指期货） 五一后，港口动力煤库存爆仓，煤价再度失守，港口 5500K 报 价约 645 元，前期 650 元支撑位跌破。关注 5 月份后火电日耗增 速以及国内煤矿开工率变化，或在此轮急跌后供 农产品（玉米） 中央气象台 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market shows an upward trend, with different industries contributing to the gains of various indices. The subsequent basis trend is affected by complex factors, and both the roll - over strategy and the inter - period strategy recommend going long on the near - term contracts and short on the far - term contracts for IH, IF, IC, and IM. Different arbitrage and timing strategies of stock index futures have different performances last week [3][4]. - For treasury bond futures, the inter - period strategy maintains the previous view, suggesting that short - hedging positions of treasury bond futures start to arrange the roll - over in advance. The multi - factor timing strategy signal is bullish, the inter - variety arbitrage strategy signal of TS - T is neutral and T - TL is bearish, and the current credit bond duration rotation plus hedging strategy holds the 3 - 5 - year index and conducts treasury bond futures hedging [56]. - In the commodity market, various style factors of commodities perform differently. The term structure and basis factors rebound slightly, the warehouse receipt factor falls, and the volume - price and value factors rise more. The CTA strategy may fluctuate in the short - term, but the long - term prospects of the CTA's volume - price trend and spot - futures structure factors are promising [76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Quantitative Strategy Tracking 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures Market Review - The market shows an upward trend. Banks and food and beverage contribute to the gains of the SSE 50 Index, banks and power equipment contribute to the gains of the CSI 300 Index, national defense and military industry and computer contribute to the gains of the CSI 500 Index, and power equipment and national defense and military industry contribute to the gains of the CSI 1000 Index [3]. - The trading volume of each variety increases month - on - month. The basis of IF and IH strengthens, while that of IC and IM weakens, with IC and IM maintaining a deep discount [4]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Futures Basis Strategy Recommendation - IH and IF are prone to provide trading opportunities of going long on the near - term contracts and short on the far - term contracts during the ex - dividend season. IC and IM maintain a discount due to the dominant roll - over of neutral strategies. Both the roll - over strategy and the inter - period strategy recommend going long on the near - term contracts and short on the far - term contracts [4]. 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the annualized basis rate, cash - and - carry, and momentum strategies gain 1.1%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively last week [5]. - The inter - variety arbitrage timing strategy's signal turns to going long on small - cap and short on large - cap, and the synthetic strategy has a drawdown of 0.1% last week. The latest signal recommends a 100% position to go long on IC and short on IF, and a 100% position to go long on IM and short on IF [6]. - The inter - variety arbitrage cross - section strategy gains 0.04% last week [7]. 3.1.4 Stock Index Futures Timing Strategy Tracking - The daily timing strategy's different models have different performances last week. The single - factor equal - weighted, OLS, and XGB models lose 1.5%, 1.3%, and gain 1.7% respectively. The latest signal of the OLS model is bearish on each index, and the XGB model is bullish on the CSI 500/CSI 1000 and bearish on the SSE 50/CSI 300 [8]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Quantitative Strategy 3.2.1 This Week's Strategy Focus - In terms of basis and inter - period, the inter - period strategy maintains the previous view, suggesting that short - hedging positions of treasury bond futures start to arrange the roll - over in advance. - In the futures timing strategy, the net value of the multi - factor timing strategy fluctuates this week, and the signal is bullish. - In the futures inter - variety arbitrage strategy, the latest signal of the TS - T strategy is neutral, and the T - TL strategy is bearish. - In the credit bond neutral strategy, the hedging pressure index of treasury bond futures based on far - term contracts rebounds, and the current credit bond duration rotation plus hedging strategy holds the 3 - 5 - year index and conducts treasury bond futures hedging [56]. 3.2.2 Key Points of Treasury Bond Futures Basis and Inter - Period Spread - The inter - period spreads of different treasury bond futures varieties show obvious differentiation this week. TS rebounds significantly, TL weakens significantly, and T and TF fluctuate at a low level. The inter - period strategy maintains the previous view, suggesting that short - hedging positions of treasury bond futures start to arrange the roll - over in advance [57]. 3.3 Commodity CTA Factor and Tracking Strategy Performance 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Affected by the combination of macro policies and external events, the domestic commodity market shows mixed performance. Different style factors of commodities perform differently. The term structure and basis factors rebound slightly, the warehouse receipt factor falls, and the volume - price and value factors rise more. The CTA strategy may fluctuate in the short - term, but the long - term prospects of the CTA's volume - price trend and spot - futures structure factors are promising [76][79]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies have different performances. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.8%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.64, and a Calmar ratio of 1.11, with a return of 0.34% last week and 1.08% this year [77].