1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "sideways" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The core trading logic of the continuous increase in positions and decline in the futures market, hitting new lows, is to continuously test the cost support of the resource end against the backdrop of no unexpected performance on the demand side and even the need to revise down the terminal growth rate expectations. The accelerated decline in ore prices and the sequential decline in the current operating costs of multiple mines have made this logic smoother. The main logic of long - term oversupply of the variety and the downward shift of cost support remains unchanged, but short - term rhythms need to be noted in the trading dimension. From a fundamental perspective, attention should be paid to whether the reduction in salt production continues to expand, and potential disturbances at the resource end should be continuously vigilant in a low - price environment. After a rapid increase in positions and decline in the futures market, short - covering caused by the expectation gap may drive a rapid rebound in the futures market. Strategically, it is not recommended to continue to short at the current level, nor is it recommended to bottom - fish on the left side based solely on static valuations. Instead, patiently wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [2][20] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Resource End Has No Effective Resistance, and the Increase in Positions in the Futures Market Hits New Lows - Last week (05/06 - 05/09), lithium salt prices accelerated their decline. The closing price of LC2505 decreased by 4% sequentially to 63,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LC2507 decreased by 4.5% sequentially to 63,000 yuan/ton. The average spot prices of SMM battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate decreased by 4.0% and 3.9% sequentially to 65,300 yuan/ton and 63,600 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the near - month contract of lithium carbonate on Liyang Zhonglian Jin decreased by 3.5% sequentially to 64,000 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of lithium hydroxide also showed a weak trend. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micron - sized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 1.9% and 1.8% sequentially to 66,300 yuan/ton and 71,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate slightly narrowed to 1,700 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide changed from a discount to a premium of 1,000 yuan/ton compared to battery - grade lithium carbonate [1][10] - According to Chilean customs, in April, Chile exported a total of 24,400 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 6% increase sequentially and a 15% decrease year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 15,500 tons, a 6.3% decrease sequentially and a 32% decrease year - on - year. From January to April, Chile exported a total of 91,600 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 3% increase year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 63,300 tons, unchanged year - on - year. In terms of lithium sulfate, in April, Chile shipped 9,100 tons (4,500 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a 56% increase sequentially and a 14% increase year - on - year. From January to April, a total of 27,300 tons (13,600 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate were shipped to China, a 138% increase year - on - year [2][12] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - In April 2025, BYD's total installed capacity of power batteries and energy - storage batteries was approximately 26.478GWh, a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 110.83%. In April, BYD's new - energy vehicle production was 385,064 units, and sales were 380,089 units, a year - on - year increase of 21.34%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative production was 1,442,143 units, and the cumulative sales were 1,380,893 units. In April, the overseas sales of new - energy vehicles totaled 79,086 units, and the cumulative overseas sales from January to April were 285,134 units. The cumulative installed capacity from January to April was approximately 79.031GWh [22] - Chile's lithium export volume in April was 24,404 tons, of which the export volume of lithium carbonate was 21,770 tons. The export volume of lithium carbonate to China in that month was 15,546 tons [22] - Liontown Resources received 15 million Australian dollars in financial support from the Western Australian state government. The state took action to support its key minerals industry in the context of持续疲软 prices. Liontown signed a 15 million Australian - dollar interest - free loan agreement with the state and was confirmed to be eligible for temporary exemption from port fees and certain mining property fee rebates. These support measures are aimed at alleviating the financial pressure during the capacity expansion of the Kathleen Valley lithium project and will remain effective until the spodumene price recovers to over $1,100 per ton for two consecutive quarters or until June 30, 2026, whichever comes first [23] - The Chinese Embassy in Chile stated that BYD and Tsingshan have never said they stopped investing in Chile and are willing to continue dialogue with the Chilean authorities [23] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Spot Quotation of Lithium Concentrate Continues to Decline - The spot quotation of lithium concentrate continues to decline [24] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Main Contract Hits a New Low Again - The main contract of lithium carbonate hits a new low again [26] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Decline - The quotes of downstream intermediates decline [36] 3.3.4 Terminal: In March, China's New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Increased Significantly Year - on - Year - In March, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly year - on - year [41]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn and corn starch is bullish [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Agricultural product spot prices have risen without triggering a large amount of new supply. The supply - demand gap is expected not to shrink, and spot prices are expected to continue to strengthen. Before more fragmented evidence supporting tight inventory carry - over appears, hedging pressure and concerns about auctions may suppress the upward momentum of futures prices. It is recommended to continue holding the 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spread strategies. If import auctions are launched, the quantity is not expected to exceed expectations, and attention should be paid to the demand and inventory situation reflected by the transaction rate and transaction price [3] - The开机 rate of corn starch continues to increase inertia, and starch inventory accumulates. Although the overall tone of reducing the开机 rate remains unchanged, the speed may be disturbed by various factors. The current futures CS - C spread has complex influencing factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Review 1.1 Corn - Relevant charts include corn's spot and futures price performance and basis, spot price trend, 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 month - spread trends [15] 1.2 Corn Starch - Relevant charts include corn starch's spot and futures price performance and basis, the spread between starch and corn's main futures, the spot spread between starch and corn in Weifang, and corn starch by - product revenue compensation [19][22] 2. Weekly Observation of Corn Fundamental Information 2.1 Purchase and Sale of Reserves - Relevant charts show the situation of China Grain Reserves Corporation's online competitive sales and purchases of corn [29] 2.2 Inventory - Relevant charts cover the grain inventory, foreign trade inventory, and domestic trade inventory of corn in southern ports, the corn inventory in northern ports, the corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises, the corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of major deep - processing enterprises, and the corn inventory days of feed enterprises [32][38][43] 2.3 Substitutes - Relevant charts show the price spread between wheat and corn and the theoretical advantage spread of wheat substituting for corn [47] 2.4 Demand - Relevant charts include the profitability of corn - to - ethanol in Heilongjiang, the corn alcohol开机 rate, and the average slaughter weight of pigs [49][50] 3. Weekly Observation of Corn Starch Fundamental Information 3.1 Profitability - Relevant charts show the profitability and profit of corn starch enterprises [54] 3.2 Supply - Relevant charts include the开机 rate and processing volume of corn starch enterprises [57] 3.3 Demand - Relevant charts show the开机 rates of fructose syrup, maltose syrup, corrugated paper, and box - board paper [62][63] 3.4 Inventory - Relevant charts cover the available inventory of corn starch enterprises and the seasonal trend of registered corn starch warehouse receipts [67]

周度报告-黄金 贸易问题短期缓和，黄金冲高回落 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | | 黄金：看跌 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 月 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金反弹 2.6%至 3325 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.38%，通 胀预期 2.31%，实际利率微升至 2.06%，美元指数涨 0.31%至 100.3， 标普 500 指数跌 0.47%，离岸人民币小跌，沪金维持较高溢价。 贵 金 属 金价波动增加，关税问题仍然是市场交易核心所在，特朗普表示将 对美国以外生产的电影加征 100%关税，叠加地缘军事冲突升温，国 内资金节后抄底增加，推动黄金再度突破 3400 美元/盎司。但随后 美联储 5 月利率会议按兵不动表态偏鹰，以及英国和美国达成贸 易协议，黄金高位回落，日内波动幅度加大。中美高层瑞士举行 会谈，此前的关税无法正常贸易，因而双方均有降低关税到能贸 易的水平的意愿，关税问题边际上存在改善空间，短期对黄金不 利，但中长期维度贸易不会 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading volume and open interest of the commodity options market recovered this week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - Most commodity option underlying assets declined this week. Many varieties' implied volatility dropped, presenting short - volatility opportunities. Different varieties show varying market sentiment based on volume PCR and open interest PCR [2][14]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - From May 5th to May 9th, 2025, the daily average trading volume was 5.5151 million lots, up 21.28% week - on - week, and the daily average open interest was 7.8 million lots, up 18.18% week - on - week [1][7]. - Actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume include PTA, soda ash, and glass. Notable volume - increasing varieties are polysilicon, caustic soda, and lithium carbonate, while p - xylene had a significant volume decline [1][7]. - Varieties with high daily average open interest are soybean meal, glass, and soda ash. Those with rapid open - interest growth are urea, polysilicon, and Shanghai lead [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Option Main Data Review - Underlying asset price changes: 32 varieties closed down. High - gain varieties are p - xylene, alumina, and PTA; high - loss varieties are lithium carbonate, glass, and polysilicon [2][14]. - Market volatility: Most commodity implied volatility declined. 47 varieties' implied volatility decreased week - on - week, and 31 varieties' current implied volatility is below the historical 50% quantile. High - implied - volatility varieties include polysilicon, gold, and soybean No.1 [2][14]. - Option market sentiment: Varieties like silver, rebar, and PVC have high volume PCR, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. Synthetic rubber, styrene, and alumina have low volume PCR, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. PTA, polypropylene, cotton, and rapeseed meal have high open - interest PCR, suggesting accumulated bearish sentiment, while natural rubber has low open - interest PCR, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][14]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter presents key data of major varieties such as trading, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanyi official website [19]. - It further divides into sub - sections for energy, chemicals, precious metals, ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products, each with corresponding data charts for trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR of specific varieties [20][25][55][63][80][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillation [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Guinea ore has further decreased, and there are uncertainties in new alumina investments in China. Alumina supply and demand and costs still face pressure, but the price valuation is not high, and some negative factors have been priced in. The futures price may gradually enter the bottom - grinding stage [1][15] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were on a downward trend last week. Shanxi 58/5 ore was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. After the May Day holiday, mine inspections were strengthened. Domestic ore supply remained tight. Imported Guinea mainstream 45/3 ore price dropped to 75 dollars/dry ton (CIF). Newly - arrived ore during the period was 4.747 million tons, including 4.11 million tons from Guinea. The freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to 19 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The northern comprehensive price was 2870 - 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2913.6 yuan/ton, up 22.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was flat. After the holiday, downstream enterprises had a strong willingness to replenish stocks. The domestic alumina full - cost was 2962 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of - 59 yuan/ton. The number of domestic alumina enterprises under maintenance and production cuts was increasing. The national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons from before the holiday, and an operating rate of 78.2% [3][13] - **Demand**: There were no changes in domestic and overseas demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.923 million tons, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.408 million tons, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of May 8, the national alumina inventory was 3.288 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons from before the holiday. Alumina enterprise inventories and electrolytic aluminum enterprise inventories both decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 249,763 tons, a decrease of 28,850 tons from last week. The supply shortage led to inventory reduction, and the uncertainty of new project investment led to a rebound in the futures price [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - On May 9, 200,000 tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at 2900 yuan/ton [16] - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong had its third 1 - million - ton production line put into operation in mid - April. The production was mainly concentrated on the front - end of aluminum hydroxide, and the finished product was expected to be produced by the end of the month. The alumina roasting volume was difficult to increase in the short term [16] - 500,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at 3000 yuan/ton for long - term orders [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provided data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, bauxite port inventory, shipping volume, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It included domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [31][33][38] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It covered the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions [41][44][48]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅需求不见起色，关注多晶硅减产力度 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 月 | 年 | 5 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，北方和云南产能出现减产，但四川进入平水 期后部分硅厂逐步复产。需求端仍无起色，有机硅大厂检修、 多晶硅大厂延迟复产，对工业硅需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对 工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9500-10000 元/吨。后续关注供给端 边际变化。 ★投资建议 工业硅：工业硅盘面快速跌破我们此前测算的 9000 元/吨一 线，价格下跌或进一步带来供给端的边际变化。策略上，前期 空单可部分止盈，不建议左侧做多，建议关注出现明确的规模 性减产、丰水期西南复产不及预期、仓单明显流出等信号后， 再考虑右侧抄底。此外，关注大厂的现金流风险。 多晶硅：价格下跌后，关注供给端变化，以及 5-6 月份需求排 产是否有超预期的可能。现货博弈加剧，盘面额外关注仓单问 题。在仓单大规模生成之 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [6] Core View of the Report - Market risk appetite slightly increased this week, with most stocks rising, most bond yields increasing, and the US Treasury yield reaching 4.38%. The US dollar index rose 0.31% to 100.3, non - US currencies showed mixed performance, gold rebounded 2.6% to $3325 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 21.9, and the spot commodity index declined while Brent crude oil rebounded 4% to $63.8 per barrel [2][10] - The Fed's May interest - rate meeting was hawkish, maintaining the interest rate level and expressing concerns about economic uncertainty. Powell was not eager to cut rates, and the Fed remained cautious about rate cuts [37] - Market risk appetite recovered due to expectations of tariff easing after Sino - US high - level talks and a US - UK agreement. However, the US economy faces increasing stagflation risks, and overseas stocks are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][12] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite slightly increased. Most stocks rose, most bond yields increased with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.38%. The US dollar index rose to 100.3, non - US currencies had mixed performance, gold rebounded 2.6%, and Brent crude oil rebounded 4% [2][10] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stocks mostly rose. The S&P 500 fell 0.47%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.92%. Market risk appetite increased due to tariff - easing expectations. Overseas stocks are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, while the domestic stock market will continue to oscillate [11][12][14] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising to 4.38%. Emerging - market bond yields mostly declined. The US Treasury yield is expected to continue rising, while the Chinese bond market is expected to be weak and oscillating [15][19][22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose to 100.3, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB fell 0.38%, the euro fell 0.42%, etc. [25][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold rebounded 2.6% to $3325 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rebounded 4% to $63.88 per barrel. The VIX index dropped to 21.9, and the overall commodity market oscillated and declined [29][32] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The Fed's May interest - rate meeting was hawkish. The Fed maintained the interest rate, was more concerned about economic uncertainty, and was cautious about rate cuts [33][37] 4. Next Week's Important Events - Next week includes events such as Sino - US high - level talks, US April CPI, and Germany's April CPI [39]

Report Investment Rating - The trend rating of treasury bonds is "volatile" [4] Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to gradually strengthen in the volatility, and it is recommended to seize the opportunity to go long. The fundamental factors are relatively certain to be favorable, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the bond market is clear. However, the price of treasury bond futures is still high, and there may be short - term disturbances. It is necessary to time the entry and adjust the adding strategy [2][16]. - After the central bank's interest rate cut, the capital interest rate center has declined rapidly, and the yield curve has changed from flat to steep. The direction of the curve steepening is relatively certain, and its space is determined by the downward space of the capital interest rate, which is expected to have some room for decline but with a possibly tortuous rhythm [2][17]. Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Outlook 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From May 5th to May 11th, treasury bond futures fluctuated at a high level. On Tuesday, the central bank net - withdrew a large amount of funds through reverse repurchase, the short - end varieties were weak, and the long - end varieties were slightly strong due to the expected weakening of April's economic indicators. On Wednesday, after the central bank announced the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the interest rate briefly declined, then institutions' profit - taking intention rose rapidly, and short - end varieties outperformed long - end ones. On Thursday, with the marginal loosening of the capital market and the lack of upward momentum in the stock market, treasury bond futures rose and the curve steepened. On Friday, treasury bond futures rose in the morning but weakened in the afternoon due to the better - than - expected April export data. As of May 9th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.356, 106.105, 109.035, and 120.320 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.012, + 0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend [1][13]. 1.2 Next Week's Outlook - Although the central bank announced the "double - cut" this week and the curve started to steepen, the long - end treasury bond futures did not break through upwards because the market had over - anticipated the interest rate cut and April's export data exceeded expectations. In the future, the market should gradually strengthen in the volatility, but the timing of going long should be well - grasped. Fundamental factors are favorable, but short - term disturbances may exist. It is more cost - effective to wait for pullbacks to buy [16]. 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 50 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 578.579 billion yuan and a net financing of 235.291 billion yuan, an increase of 443.487 billion yuan and 100.594 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 28 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 105.459 billion yuan and a net financing of 67.191 billion yuan, an increase of 12.367 billion yuan and a decrease of 25.506 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 453 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 857.920 billion yuan and a net financing of 334.360 billion yuan, an increase of 608.580 billion yuan and 420.330 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [23][24]. 2.2 Secondary Market - As of May 9th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.43%, 1.49%, 1.64%, and 1.84% respectively, changing by - 1.54, - 1.92, + 0.76, and + 1.35 basis points compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - financial bonds were 1.47%, 1.55%, and 1.66% respectively, changing by - 9.22, - 2.50, and + 0.31 basis points compared to last weekend [28][29]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of May 9th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.356, 106.105, 109.035, and 120.320 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.012, + 0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 46,612, 70,116, 82,596, and 99,245 lots respectively, an increase of 4,851, 10,812, 16,677, and 16,030 lots compared to last weekend. The open interests were 149,492, 210,970, 245,395, and 132,157 lots respectively, changing by + 2,582, + 5,180, + 8,820, and - 1,496 lots compared to last weekend [36][39]. 3.2 Basis and IRR - The positive - arbitrage strategy is recommended. The IRRs of T and TF have been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosened at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the positive - arbitrage strategy became prominent. There are stable positive - arbitrage opportunities because the negative carry problem still exists in some varieties and the basis center is difficult to rise, and at the same time, some investors are actively going long on the bond market [43]. 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of May 9th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2506 - 2509 were - 0.196, - 0.340, - 0.165, and - 0.530 yuan respectively, changing by + 0.068, - 0.040, - 0.020, and - 0.260 yuan compared to last weekend. The inter - delivery spread of TS started to rise, and its future trend is expected to be tortuous [47][48]. 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 836.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1,617.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan. As of May 9th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.58%, 1.54%, 1.50%, and 1.52% respectively, down 25.91, 25.77, 26.30, and 24.30 basis points compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 6.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.34 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 85.79%, higher than last week [52][56][58]. 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - As of May 9th, the US dollar index rose 0.38% to 100.4218 compared to last weekend, the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.37%, up 4 basis points compared to last weekend, and the 10Y China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 274 basis points. The progress of the UK - US trade negotiation and the Fed's slightly hawkish stance in the May interest - rate meeting led to the strengthening of the US dollar index and the rise of US Treasury yields [63]. 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices fell across the board. As of May 9th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,446.32, 6,047.02, and 1,608.41 points respectively, down 31.89, 59.87, and 12.60 points compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices rose across the board. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.62, 4.40, and 8.01 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.03, 0.01, and 0.42 yuan/kg compared to last weekend [67]. 7. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying on pullbacks. Specific strategies include: 1) Recommend the strategy of laying out medium - term long positions on dips. 2) Pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunities of short - end varieties. 3) The opportunity to steepen the curve has initially emerged, and continue to monitor the change of the capital interest rate. 4) Stop profiting from the strategy of narrowing the TS06 - 09 spread in advance [2][18][68].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agreement between the US and the UK on tariff trade has led to a rise in market risk appetite, with the gold price falling by over 2%, the US dollar index strengthening, and the US stock index futures showing a short - term risk preference recovery. However, tariff negotiations remain complex, and the long - term impact is uncertain [2][3][14][17]. - In the commodity market, different sectors have different trends. For example, the steel price continues to decline, the inventory of some metals and energy products shows changes, and the prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy [6][24][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement, reducing the US tariff on British - made cars to 10% and the beef tariff close to zero. The gold price fell by over 2%. In the short term, gold is under pressure, but the negotiation is complex, and there is still room for correction [14]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the progress of US trade negotiations, and be aware of the short - term correction risk of gold [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates. The US and the UK reached the first trade agreement since the Trump tariff war, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a short - term rebound [15][17][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced a major agreement with the UK. The US House of Representatives Committee will start deliberating on Trump's tax - cut plan next week. The short - term market risk preference recovers, but tariff negotiations tend to be long - term, and it is not recommended to chase high [19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 158.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan. The current one - sided market opportunities are limited, and attention can be paid to various arbitrage strategies, such as the curve - steepening strategy. The opportunity to steepen the curve has initially emerged, and subsequent changes in capital interest rates should be continuously monitored [21][22][23]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of March 31, Canada's rapeseed ending inventory was 5.8694 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. The oil market continued to fluctuate. The short - term palm oil price has reached the support level, and it is recommended to wait for the MPOB report data before operating [24]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil announced the 25/26 sanitary interval schedule. The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. The domestic soybean meal futures price is expected to fluctuate, and the spot will continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply and demand report on May 12 [25][27][28]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in April decreased by 17.65% year - on - year. In China, the sugar production in Guangxi increased, and the sales rate reached 63.96%, a 6 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The domestic sugar price has strong resistance to decline in the short term, but the external market is under pressure, and the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter of 2025. Attention should be paid to the sugar factory's inventory reduction progress [30][33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Deep - processing enterprises continued to raise prices to promote purchases, but the effect was not good. The overseas cassava starch startup rate decreased seasonally. The CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [35][36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline. It is recommended to hold the 07 long positions and pay attention to the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spread opportunities. If the import auction starts, focus on the transaction rate and price [38]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In April, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 90,000 vehicles, and the national passenger - car market retail sales were 1.791 million vehicles. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 289,700 tons week - on - week. The steel price continued to decline, and the short - term downward space is difficult to open. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see in the short term, and use the rebound hedging strategy for the spot [39][40][41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - After the holiday, the port coal inventory was full, and the coal price may decline rapidly again. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the price can hold at the 600 - yuan level [43]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - FMG's iron ore shipments in the first quarter of 2025 were 46.1 million tons. With the seasonal weakening of demand, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [44][45][46]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market was stable. During the May Day holiday, the supply of coking coal was sufficient, and the second round of coke price increase was postponed. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile trend, and in the long term, it will be weak [47][48]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In April, the total actual output of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia was 181,500 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 3.62% and a year - on - year increase of 24.34%. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations in the short term [48][49][50]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Several copper - related companies had acquisition and project progress. The UK - US trade agreement may increase market risk appetite and benefit the copper price. The domestic copper inventory continued to decline, supporting the price. It is recommended to conduct band operations in the short term and gradually stop profiting from the positive spread strategy [51][53][54]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Tongwei has no plan to destock through the polysilicon futures delivery. The 06 contract price rebounded after reaching a low point. It is expected that the polysilicon will continue to destock in May. Long positions and positive spreads can continue to be held [55][56][57]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The organic silicon DMC price is expected to fluctuate. The demand for industrial silicon is weak, and it is recommended to partially stop profiting from previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown received 15 million Australian dollars in support from the Western Australian government, and BYD and Tsingshan Holdings withdrew from the Chilean lithium processing plant plan. In the long term, the lithium carbonate market is in surplus, and the cost support may move down. It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current point, and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities [59][60][62]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead ingot social inventory continued to increase. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [63][64][65]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American and Lundin Mining's zinc production increased in the first quarter of 2025. The zinc social inventory decreased slightly. The short - term zinc price is supported by low inventory and strong spot, but the medium - term demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and internal - external positive spread opportunities [66][67][68]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [70][71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in an oscillating adjustment phase. In 2025, the overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emission allowances is relatively loose, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [74][75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. The PTA price is expected to be oscillatingly strong or continue to rebound in the short term [76][77][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production increased this week. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future. The cost end drags down the price, and the downstream profit expansion space is limited [79][80][81]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On May 8, the caustic soda market in Shandong had an upward transaction, and the enterprise inventory was at a low level. The caustic soda spot price rebounded, but the overall commodity market is weak, and the caustic soda market is difficult to rise significantly [82][83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable. The short - term pulp market is expected to be oscillatingly weak [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased. Although the inventory is decreasing and the basis is strengthening, the market expects negative impacts from tariffs, and the PVC performance may continue to be weak [85]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chips increased slightly in some areas. The supply pressure of bottle chips is increasing, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure [86][87][88]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of May 8, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 1.74%. The soda ash futures price continued to fall, and the market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term and pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract [89]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased significantly this week. The glass price continued to fall, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The glass price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy variables [90][91]. 2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's EBIT in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.253 billion US dollars. Affected by the peace talks between the Houthi and the US, the European - line futures weakened. It is recommended to treat the market as a wide - range oscillation and wait and see in the short term [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for corn [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second-round price increase of corn in the 2024/2025 period has started as expected, and the expectation of new crops is unlikely to prevent the tail-up of old crops [1][3]. - In a normal-yield scenario, the cost of new corn is expected to decline slightly, but there are significant uncertainties related to weather [2]. - The current supply-demand gap of corn has not been filled, and in the medium term, the tight inventory will continue to drive up corn prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gradually Tightening Inventory and the Second-Round Price Increase - The second-round price increase of corn in the 2024/2025 period has started. After the first-round increase, the price entered a wide - range oscillation period. Since mid - April, the price has strengthened again, breaking through the previous resistance level of 2,350 yuan/ton. As of May 7, the closing price of the 07 contract was 2,369 yuan/ton, up about 4% from the annual low of 2,280 yuan/ton [10]. - The expectation that "without large - scale substitution, the real supply gap will emerge in July" may be starting to materialize. Due to a significant decline in imports and a cyclical increase in energy demand, a large amount of substitutes are needed this year. The current wheat situation indicates that large - scale feed substitution will be achieved through the increase in corn prices. Signs of tight inventory are emerging, such as a decline in the inventory of deep - processing enterprises and an improvement in the auction performance of China Grain Reserves Corporation [11]. 2. New Crop Cost and Weather Uncertainties - Sowing: Affected by weather, the sowing of corn in Northeast China has been delayed by 1 - 2 weeks. Although sowing delay is theoretically unfavorable for yield, the overall growing - season weather is more crucial. If the delay is too long, some corn may be replanted with soybeans. Currently, the corn area is not expected to decrease significantly [21]. - Land rent cost: The decline in land rent this year is more moderate than expected and shows regional differentiation. In Heilongjiang, the cost reduction is not obvious, with the northern part remaining basically flat and the central and western parts having a 5% - 10% reduction. In Jilin and Liaoning, the decline is larger than in Heilongjiang but still more moderate year - on - year [2][28]. - Cost in a normal - yield scenario: Taking the median value of the land rent decline in Heilongjiang (-5%) as a reference, in a normal - yield scenario, the new - grain drying cost in Heilongjiang is expected to be about 1,750 yuan/ton, and the port - collection cost is expected to be about 2,010 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of about 60 - 70 yuan/ton. However, if there is a slight reduction in yield (-3%), the cost may remain basically the same year - on - year. The cost of new crops still has uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [25]. 3. New Crop Expectations Unlikely to Hinder Old Crop Tail - Up - In Q3 2025, if there is a game between strong reality and weak expectations, this year is expected to be more similar to 2022/2023. Currently, the overall demand is expected to be good, and the phenomenon of a year - on - year sharp decline in imported grains is difficult to reverse. Therefore, in the face of the game between reality and expectations, this year may be more like 2022/2023, where old crops mainly reflect strong reality before the new crops are listed [33][35]. - The repair of trade profits and the likely realization of wheat's indirect support for corn prices. After the first - round price increase, traders have realized good profits. The view that "the minimum purchase price of wheat will indirectly support corn prices" has become a market consensus, and it is likely to be realized this year. Traders may use "wheat price floor - storage cost" as the bottom anchor for corn [36]. 4. Price Outlook and Investment Suggestions - Price outlook: The increase in corn prices has not attracted a large amount of new supply, and the energy demand is relatively rigid. Therefore, the supply - demand gap of corn has not been filled. In the medium term, the tight inventory will continue to drive up corn prices, and the annual high of the 07 contract is expected to reach about 2,450 yuan/ton. In the short term, concerns about import reserve auctions may suppress the upward momentum of futures prices [36][37]. - Investment suggestions: It is recommended to continue to adopt a mid - line strategy of buying on dips for the 07 contract. Attention is also recommended to be paid to the opportunities of 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spreads [38].