Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic fundamentals will gradually face pressure, and the fundamental situation is favorable for the bond market. It is advisable to maintain the strategy of buying on dips. In the medium to long term, the probability of making profits by going long on long - term bonds is high, but the potential return is relatively limited. Therefore, the strategy of buying on dips is more cost - effective [3][35] - The economic data in Q2 may decline moderately, and the pressure on economic decline will become more apparent in Q3. It is expected that China will introduce incremental policies to address this situation at that time [2][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Increase in Internal and External Pressures, Most Economic Data Falling Short of Expectations - **Q1 Economic Data Strength Logic**: The strong performance of Q1 economic data was mainly due to two reasons: the beginning of the year is the peak demand season for sectors such as real estate, and policy efforts further stimulated market demand; enterprises had a strong motivation to rush exports, and the export industry chain showed resilience. However, both logics had issues of poor sustainability [1][9][10] - **April Economic Data Weakening**: In April, most economic data weakened compared to the previous period. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in April was 6.5%, with an expected value of 6.1% and a previous value of 7.7%; the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in April was 5.1%, with an expected value of 5.5% and a previous value of 5.9%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to April was 4%, with an expected value of 4.2% and a previous value of 4.2%. After the data was released, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose [9] - **Future Economic Trend**: The economic data in Q2 may decline moderately, and the pressure on economic decline will become more obvious starting from mid - year. Fiscal policy is the key to hedging against the weakening external demand. It is expected that China will introduce incremental policies in Q3, and policies will become the focus of market speculation at that time [2][11] 2. Production End: Both Industrial and Service Production Show Weakening Resilience - **Industrial Production**: In April, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.5%, with an expected value of 6.1% and a previous value of 7.7%. The growth rate of industrial production is weakening. The decline in the growth rate of export delivery value and the weakening of terminal demand such as external demand have dragged down production performance. Policy support has prevented a significant decline in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value. Looking forward, the weakening of external demand will have a more obvious impact on industries with high export dependence, but policies such as "two new" will support the production end, and the decline in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value is expected to be limited [12][13] - **Service Production**: In April, the service production growth rate was 6.0%, with a previous value of 6.3%. Weak service consumption and unstable economic recovery expectations have negatively affected service production. In the future, the production growth rate is expected to decline slightly. Although terminal demand is weak, policies to boost service consumption are expected to prevent a significant decline in the service production growth rate [13] 3. Demand End: Both Manufacturing and Infrastructure Growth Rates Decline Slightly, and Real Estate Data Deteriorates Marginally Again - **Manufacturing Investment**: From January to April, the cumulative manufacturing investment growth rate was 8.8%, with a previous value of 9.1%; in April, the monthly manufacturing investment growth rate was 8.2%, with a previous value of 9.2%. The decline in manufacturing investment growth rate is due to weak terminal demand and low corporate investment and financing willingness. However, policies such as equipment renewal have limited the decline. In the future, manufacturing will continue to grow at a high speed, but there will be obvious structural differentiation [18][19] - **Infrastructure Investment**: From January to April, the cumulative growth rate of broad - based infrastructure was 10.85%, with a previous value of 11.5%; the narrow - based infrastructure growth rate was 5.8%, with a previous value of 5.8%. In April, the monthly broad - based infrastructure growth rate was 9.57%, with a previous value of 12.58%. Infrastructure growth is gradually declining from a high level. The slow issuance of new special bonds and the decline in investment growth rates of some central - led infrastructure industries have led to the weakening of infrastructure growth in April. In the short term, infrastructure growth may face a slight downward pressure, but it is expected to rise again with subsequent policy support [22][23] - **Real Estate Market**: Most real estate indicators showed a decline again. Weak consumer willingness to buy houses and tight corporate funding sources have led to a decline in real estate investment. In the short term, the probability of directly introducing strong policies to stimulate real estate demand is low. The core idea of stabilizing the real estate market is to increase effective supply to stimulate effective demand. In the short term, real estate data may continue to weaken, and the impact of incremental fiscal policies on the real estate market in Q3 can be observed [26][27] - **Social Retail Sales**: In April, the social retail sales growth rate was 5.1%, with an expected value of 5.5% and a previous value of 5.9%. The decline in automobile and other large - scale consumer goods sales has dragged down the social retail sales growth rate. Different types of consumer goods show differentiated performance. In the future, social retail sales still face pressure due to high macro - environmental uncertainty and low probability of direct policies to improve residents' cash flow statements [30][31] 4. Fundamental Factors Favor the Bond Market, Maintain the Strategy of Buying on Dips - **Bond Market Outlook**: Due to the poor sustainability of the previous logics driving economic data improvement, future economic fundamental pressure will gradually emerge, which is favorable for the bond market. In the medium to long term, the probability of making profits by going long on long - term bonds is high, but the potential return is relatively limited. Therefore, the strategy of buying on dips is more cost - effective [3][35] - **Monetary Policy and Yield Curve**: The future fundamental pressure will gradually emerge, and the pressure of exchange - rate depreciation is relatively controllable. The probability of overall loose monetary policy is high. It is expected that the central level of capital interest rates will decline slightly, and the capital market will be in a state of balanced and slightly loose. The current yield curve is relatively flat and is expected to gradually steepen in the future [35][36] - **Investment Strategies**: In the medium term, there is still a bullish outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of deploying medium - term long positions on dips. The opportunities for futures positive arbitrage have significantly decreased, and only some contracts still have slight positive arbitrage opportunities. Opportunities to steepen the curve have initially emerged, and subsequent changes in capital interest rates need to be closely monitored [38]

日度报告——综合晨报 4 月经济数据同比回落 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-20 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储官员频频为降息泼冷水 特朗普和普京的谈话结束，特朗普表态俄乌立刻谈判，但是分 歧存在的情况下，预计难以实现。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中国 4 月经济数据同比回落 综 4 月份经济数据同比增速回落，反映出外部冲击和内需走弱的双 重压力。下一阶段政策应竭力呵护房地产市场，持续巩固"止 跌回稳"态势，缓解居民资产收缩压力，释放消费潜力。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 美豆种植率高于预期 报 巴西 CNF 升贴水继续下降，国内进口大豆成本随之下行。随着 进口大豆到港及油厂开机增加，上周豆粕库存继续小幅上升， 昨日沿海豆粕现货报价以下跌为主。 有色金属（铜） 中国 4 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量同比增加 0.2% 短期美元指数承压运行而支撑铜价，但国内基本面阶段转弱预 期升温而抑制铜价，总体上，铜价短期震荡偏弱运行可能性更 大。 能源化工（原油） 欧盟或向 G7 提议将俄罗斯石油价格上限降至 50 美元/桶 油价窄幅波动。 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | -- ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 行业库存重回高位，光伏玻璃价格承压运行 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 5 月 19 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/5/16 当周）： 截至 5 月 16 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 13.5 元/平米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 21.5 元/平米，亦环比上周持平。 上周有一条光伏玻璃产线引头子出玻璃，实际产出上行。预计本 周仍有多条产线引头子出玻璃，行业实际供给仍在增加。目前暂 无新产线点火投产，基于未来需求端的降温趋势，预计行业短期 无新产线计划投产。 能 源 化 上周终端需求缩减较为明显，组件厂家排产持续下调，进而减少 对光伏玻璃的采购订单。预计本周这一情况将延续，组件厂排产 或继续下行，光伏玻璃需求维持弱势运行。 工 由于上周光伏玻璃需求端呈缩量态势而供给端继续上行，多数光 伏玻璃厂家库存继续上涨，目前行业库存已经重回高位。 ★ 供需分析： 随着行业供需差进一步扩大，光伏玻璃价格弱势运行。 ★ 风险提示： 组件厂家上调开工率。 | | | | 曹璐 | 资深分析师(化工) | | --- | --- | ...

日度报告——综合晨报 穆迪下调美国信用评级，5 月美通胀预期继续 回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-19 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 穆迪下调后 美国失去最后一个最高信用评级 穆迪下调了美国评级，这意味着美国失去了最高信用评级，对 于美国财政赤字的担忧上升，美元短期走弱。 宏观策略（黄金） 5 月美国通胀预期继续回升 综 周五金价震荡收涨，在 3200 美金附近运行，俄乌谈判扰动市场， 穆迪下调美国主权评级，对金价构成提振，但黄金尚未摆脱回 调趋势。美国政府债务问题市场多黄金核心逻辑。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 阿根廷大豆收获完成 66% 报 上周国内进口大豆成本变动不大。全国油厂共压榨大豆 190.55 万吨，钢联预估本周压榨升至 220 万吨以上，豆粕将进入季节性 累库周期，现货及基差压力不减。 有色金属（锌） 近期俄罗斯龙兴矿锌矿招标下半年 2-3 万吨锌矿 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F03107631 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0021468 | | Tel： | 862 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Guinea's ore disturbances have intensified, leading to a rebound in alumina futures prices. The supply of domestic ore remains tight, and the issue of Guinea's government revoking some mining licenses has further escalated, increasing concerns about long - term ore supply. The spot price of alumina has risen, with increased market trading volume. The static supply - demand imbalance has improved, and the inventory has started to decline. The cost side has shown obvious loosening, and the subsequent focus is on the progress of Guinea's ore disturbances [1][12][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were temporarily stable last week. Due to safety, environmental protection, resource integration, and grade decline, the overall supply of domestic ore was tight. The import market was in a stalemate, and the problem of Guinea revoking mining licenses escalated, involving an annual production capacity of about 40 million tons. The newly arrived ore was 4.099 million tons, including 3.242 million tons from Guinea and 0.805 million tons from Australia. The shipping freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to $19 per ton [11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The trading atmosphere in the market continued to heat up, and the demand from traders and some downstream increased. The export window of Chinese alumina remained closed. The national alumina operating capacity fluctuated slightly, with a construction capacity of 110.82 million tons, an operating capacity of 86.85 million tons, and an operating rate of 78.4% [12] - **Demand**: There was no change in domestic and overseas demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.923 million tons, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.408 million tons, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of May 15th, the national alumina inventory was 3.246 million tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from last week. The alumina inventory of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises continued to decline, while the inventory of alumina enterprises fluctuated slightly. The in - transit and shipped alumina increased, and the port export volume increased [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 204,735 tons, a decrease of 45,028 tons from last week. The previous large surplus had been significantly alleviated, and the supply shortage in the short - term led to inventory reduction [14] 3.2 Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - In Shanxi, 0.3 million tons of alumina were traded at an ex - factory price of 3,000 yuan per ton on May 14th [15] - In Guangxi, 0.2 million tons of alumina were traded at a price of 3,050 yuan per ton [15] - In Henan, 0.2 million tons of alumina were traded at an ex - factory price of 3,100 yuan per ton on May 15th [15] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The data includes domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][19][22][25][27][29] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [34] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The data involves the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/station/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [41][44][46][48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core View of the Report - The substantial progress in Sino-US trade negotiations has reduced short-term tariff risks and improved stock market sentiment, but inflation is expected to rise and consumer spending power will continue to be under pressure. Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and the Fed's stance on higher inflation and interest rates also impact the market [2][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded, most stock markets rose, and most bond yields increased. The US Treasury yield rose to 4.48%. The US dollar index rose 0.75% to 101, most non-US currencies depreciated, the offshore RMB rose 0.41%, gold prices fell 3.6% to $3,204 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 17.2, and the spot commodity index rose. Brent crude oil rebounded 3.6% to $65 per barrel [1][5][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 surging 5.27%, the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.76%, the Hang Seng Index rising 2.09%, and the Nikkei 225 Index rising 0.67%. The progress in Sino-US trade negotiations reduced short-term tariff risks and improved stock market sentiment, but inflation expectations and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating had a negative impact on the stock market [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rebounded, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.48%. The Fed's stance on higher inflation and interest rates and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating suggest further upside potential for US Treasury yields. The Chinese bond market is expected to trade sideways in the short term [16][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.75% to 101, and most non-US currencies depreciated [29] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold fell 3.6% to $3,204 per ounce. Short-term gold prices are weak, but the medium- to long-term bull market remains intact. Brent crude oil rebounded 2.6% to $65 per barrel, and commodities as a whole closed higher [34] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The Sino-US trade negotiations achieved progress beyond expectations. The two sides reached an agreement that exceeded market expectations, and the tariff levels returned to before the reciprocal tariffs. The 24% reciprocal tariff imposed by the US on China was suspended for 90 days. The short-term confrontation in the trade war has eased, and market risk appetite has increased [37] 4. Next Week's Important Events - Monday: China's April retail sales and industrial added value data - Tuesday: China's May LPR, RBA interest rate decision - Wednesday: UK's April CPI - Thursday: Preliminary May manufacturing PMI data for France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US; ECB interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: Japan's April CPI, US April new home sales [39]

Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatility / Polysilicon: Volatility [1] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices continue to decline, with some small factories planning further production cuts, but partial resumption in Sichuan and potential resumption of large Xinjiang factories. Demand remains weak, and future spot prices are not optimistic [1][9]. - Polysilicon prices first rose and then fell. After the production - cut meeting, no clear plan was given. The market is trading based on reality. The company has lowered the production schedule for May and June, and polysilicon is expected to reduce inventory [1][11]. - For investment, it is not recommended to go long on industrial silicon on the left - hand side, and consider short - selling on rebounds. For polysilicon, an arbitrage strategy is recommended, focusing on positive spread opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 [2][14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2507 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 8145 yuan/ton. SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blowing 553 and Xinjiang 99 silicon also declined. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon decreased by 980 yuan/ton to 36850 yuan/ton, and the N - type re - feeding material transaction price also dropped [7][8]. 2. Industrial Silicon May Partially Resume Production, Polysilicon Focus on Positive Spread Opportunities Industrial Silicon - This week, industrial silicon futures rebounded and then fell. Zhou production was 6.92 tons, a decrease of 3.94%. Social inventory increased by 0.3 tons, and sample factory inventory decreased by 1.73 tons. Demand is weak, and future prices are not optimistic [9]. Organic Silicon - This week, organic silicon prices declined slightly. The overall enterprise start - up rate was about 58.95%, an increase of 3.17pct. Zhou production was 3.90 tons, an increase of 3.17%, and inventory was 4.69 tons, a decrease of 5.06%. Short - term prices may rebound slightly, but the long - term supply surplus problem remains [9][10]. Polysilicon - This week, polysilicon futures prices first rose and then fell. The company has lowered the production schedule for May to about 9.3 tons and for June to 9 tons. Polysilicon is expected to reduce inventory in May and June. The average spot selling price has fallen below the cash cost line, and the production - cut action is still being negotiated [11]. Silicon Wafers - This week, silicon wafer prices continued to fall. As of May 15th, factory inventory was 19.44GW, an increase of 1.31GW. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [12]. Battery Cells - This week, battery cell prices continued to fall. In May, the production schedule was 58 - 59GW. Inventory has accumulated, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [13]. Components - This week, component prices continued to fall. In May, the production schedule was about 54GW, and the expected production schedule for June is 50GW. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the low - price range [13]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Industrial silicon: Do not recommend going long on the left - hand side, consider short - selling on rebounds, and pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Recommend an arbitrage strategy, focus on positive spread opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508, and continue to pay attention to supply - side changes and spot conditions [2][15]. 4. Hot News Compilation - Ruoqiang County's second - phase 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon compliance capacity project: The industrial silicon indicator of Fuhai County will be transferred to Xinjiang TBEA Loulan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. for project construction [16]. - Hongyuan Green Energy plans to transfer 27.0737% of the equity of Inner Mongolia Xinyuan for 1.245 billion yuan to optimize resource allocation and focus on core business [16]. - Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology's 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project is under publicity, with an investment of 1.495 billion yuan [17]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - The report provides various data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, production, inventory, and profit data [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 12 - May 18), treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the unexpected progress of China - US trade negotiations and marginal convergence of the capital market. Looking ahead to next week, the capital market is expected to see a slight increase in interest rates during the tax period, and the market sentiment will remain weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process will be tortuous, and there is a possibility of flattening in the short - term [13][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. On Monday, due to the unexpected statement of China - US trade negotiations, futures opened lower, then strengthened slightly and finally weakened significantly. On Tuesday, they turned from weak to strong. On Wednesday, they declined slightly. On Thursday, long - term futures performed strongly. On Friday, the curve flattened bearishly in the morning and the decline narrowed in the afternoon. As of May 16, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main continuous contracts were 102.368, 105.695, 108.460, and 118.880 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.012, +0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Views - The capital market will be the focus. During the tax period, the capital market is expected to be slightly tighter, and the market sentiment will be weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process is tortuous, and there may be a slight flattening in the short - term. The capital interest rate is expected to rise slightly during the tax period, and the market's concern about the capital market persists [15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 77 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 707.974 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased slightly, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [23] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields increased. As of May 16, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.88% respectively, up 4.73, 6.80, 4.60, and 4.25 bp from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed [27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests decreased [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy decreased significantly. The basis of each variety is expected to gradually return to a normal level [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads of each variety generally widened in the opposite direction and are expected to gradually converge to 0 in the oscillation. However, the time for deploying this strategy is limited [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan. As of May 16, capital interest rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all increased. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank repurchase increased [51][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose slightly. As of May 9, the US dollar index increased by 0.56% to 100.9828, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 6 bp to 4.43%. The spread between China and the US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 275 bp [60] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, with weak market sentiment, short - term defense is recommended. Aggressive investors can consider buying long - term varieties on dips. In the long - term, the curve is expected to steepen, but the process is tortuous. The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy has decreased significantly, and attention can be paid to the strategy of the basis returning to 0. The strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread can be tried, with a quick - in - quick - out approach [2][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index is "oscillation" [1] Core View of the Report - The global stock market rose this week, especially the US stocks driving the significant recovery of developed markets. The Sino-US Geneva talks achieved better-than-expected progress, with a 91% reduction in reciprocal tariffs, and 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days. This will lead to trade restoration between the two countries in the next 90 days, and the external cycle will support the domestic economy. However, policy efforts may remain conservative, and the inflation situation is hard to strengthen. Given the current high valuation of the stock market, the potential return on investment is restricted. The short - term market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [2][9] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview - **Next Week's View**: The market is expected to wait for the return of liquidity. The short - term market will maintain an oscillatory trend due to Sino - US trade restoration, conservative policy efforts, and high stock market valuations [2][9] - **This Week's Key Event Concerns**: - On May 12th, Sino - US Geneva economic and trade negotiations made positive progress, with a 91% reduction in reciprocal tariffs. The US and China will adjust relevant tariff policies, and China will take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff countermeasures against the US. Also, 34 cities will be selected for the third batch of enterprise digital transformation pilot projects. Japan's Prime Minister demanded the US to cancel all additional tariffs [10][11][12] - On May 13th, China's leader proposed to start five major projects with Latin American countries. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of work - relief. The central bank's deputy governor summarized four changes in the central bank's policy framework. India plans to impose tariffs on some US products. China's central bank and Brazil's central bank signed relevant agreements [14][15][16][17][18] - On May 14th, China's leader met with leaders of Colombia and Chile, promoting bilateral cooperation. Seven departments issued policies to build a science - technology finance system. Tax data showed that the national enterprise sales revenue increased by 4.3% year - on - year in April. China's M2 growth rate was 8% and M1 was 1.5% in April [19][20][21][22] - On May 15th, China will implement a visa - free policy for five South American countries. The Supreme People's Court and the CSRC jointly issued a document to combat illegal activities in the capital market. The agricultural machinery market index in April showed a weak peak season [23][24][25] - On May 16th, the average annual salary of urban non - private employees in 2024 was 124,110 yuan, with a 2.6% increase, and that of private employees was 69,476 yuan, with a 4% increase. Public fund professionals refuted the view of market repositioning due to public fund assessment benchmarks. The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of duty - free shopping for consumption [26][27][28] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From May 12th to May 16th, the global stock market denominated in US dollars generally rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 3.97%, with developed markets (+4.08%) > emerging markets (+2.98%) > frontier markets (+1.72%). The stock index of Taiwan, China rose 5.37%, leading the world, while the Japanese stock market fell 0.48%, performing the worst globally [29] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: Chinese equity assets were divided into markets, with Chinese concept stocks > A - shares > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of A - shares in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 1266.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 87.2 billion yuan from last week. A - share indexes were differentiated, with blue - chip indexes such as the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rising more than 1%, while the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and STAR 50 indexes fell [32] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week, with the information technology industry leading (+7.39%), and the healthcare industry performing poorly (-0.02%). In the Chinese market, the financial industry led the rise (+1.91%), and the information technology industry led the decline (-0.84%) [35] - **Weekly Overview of Chinese A - Share CITIC Primary Industries**: Among Chinese A - share CITIC primary industries, 21 rose (30 last week) and 9 fell (0 last week). The leading industry was the automobile industry (+2.71%), and the industry with the largest decline was the national defense and military industry (-1.61%) [36] - **Weekly Overview of Chinese A - Share Styles**: The large - cap growth style was dominant [41] - **Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis**: No specific data was summarized in the text [44] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad - Based Index Valuation**: The text provided PE and PB data for various broad - based indexes this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes and eight - year percentile rankings [53] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: The text provided PE and PB data for various primary industries this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes and eight - year percentile rankings [54] - **Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [55][60] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - Based Indexes**: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.38% and up to 8.09% in 2026; that of the CSI 500 in 2025 was adjusted down to 37.38% and down to 16.00% in 2026; that of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was adjusted up to 1.55% and down to 18.76% in 2026 [61] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond and the 1 - year Treasury bond rose, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 100, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.20 [68] - **Trading - Type Capital Tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 13.3 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 4.3 billion yuan [71] - **Capital Inflow Tracking through ETFs**: There were 28 on - site ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 29 tracking the CSI A500. The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1.6 billion shares, that of the CSI 500 decreased by 200 million shares, that of the CSI 1000 decreased by 700 million shares, and that of the CSI A500 decreased by 4.3 billion shares [73][74][78] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data - **Supply Side**: The tire operating rate rebounded rapidly [80] - **Consumption Side**: The number of second - hand housing listings decreased, and international oil prices slightly recovered [90] - **Inflation Observation**: Agricultural product prices reached a new low this year [101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn and corn starch is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the spot price of corn continued to oscillate strongly, while the futures price declined slightly due to weak basis, increased hedging pressure, and stronger auction expectations. The energy demand is expected to recover moderately, which will significantly exceed the decline in deep - processing demand. Corn spot prices are expected to continue to rise, and it is recommended to hold the existing 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads strategies [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Review 3.1.1 Corn - Analyzes the performance of corn's futures and spot prices, basis, spot price trends, and 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 month spreads [13][18][19] 3.1.2 Corn Starch - Examines the futures and spot prices, basis, the spread between starch and corn futures, the spot price spread in Weifang, and the by - product income compensation of corn starch [21][22][28] 3.2 Corn Fundamental Information Weekly Observation 3.2.1 Receipt and Auction of Reserves - Focuses on the corn auction and procurement information on the Sinograin online bidding platform [30][32] 3.2.2 Inventory - Covers the grain inventory, foreign - trade inventory, domestic - trade inventory in southern ports, and the inventory in northern ports of corn, as well as the corn inventory and consumption of major deep - processing enterprises [34][37][43] 3.2.3 Substitutes - Analyzes the price spread between wheat and corn and the theoretical substitution advantage spread of wheat for corn [50][51] 3.2.4 Demand - Considers the profitability of corn - to - ethanol production, the operating rate of corn alcohol, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs [53][54][56] 3.3 Corn Starch Fundamental Information Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Profitability - Analyzes the profitability and profit of corn starch enterprises [59][61] 3.3.2 Supply - Focuses on the operating rate and processing volume of corn starch enterprises [63][64] 3.3.3 Demand - Examines the operating rates of fructose syrup, maltose syrup, corrugated paper, and box - board paper in the starch sugar industry [67][69][70] 3.3.4 Inventory - Covers the available inventory and the seasonal trend of registered warehouse receipts of corn starch enterprises [73][74]