Investment Rating - The report rates the banking sector as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The banking sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 13.49%, ranking second among all industries, with a focus on the investment value of bank stocks [1][12] - The report suggests paying attention to specific banks such as China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [1] Summary by Sections Banking Sector and Stock Performance - The banking index increased by 0.67% this week, while the Wind All A index rose by 3.56%, indicating that the banking sector underperformed by 2.69 percentage points [12] - Among the 42 A-share banks, 22 saw an increase in stock prices this week [2] - State-owned banks had an average increase of 0.75% with a P/B ratio of 0.71X, while joint-stock banks rose by 1.09% with a P/B of 0.60X [15] - The average increase for city commercial banks was 0.43% with a P/B of 0.71X, while rural commercial banks saw a decline of 1.16% with a P/B of 0.66X [15] Funding Price Situation - The central bank conducted a significant reverse repo operation, injecting 10672 billion into the market this week [3][27] - The overnight SHIBOR rate remained stable at 1.37%, while the 7-day SHIBOR rate increased by 14 basis points to 1.67% [30] - The average rates for overnight and 7-day repo transactions were 1.46% and 1.92%, respectively, with the latter rising by 33 basis points [30] Bond Market Situation - Total financing in the bond market reached 20769.5 billion, with net financing down by 1078.6 billion compared to last week [42] - Local government bonds issuance increased to 6416.4 billion, while national bonds decreased significantly by 3197.8 billion [42] - The yield on 1-year national bonds was 1.35%, down by 1 basis point, while the 10-year yield rose to 1.65%, up by 1 basis point [44] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market Review - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 7264 billion, a decrease of 3741 billion from the previous week [53] - The weighted average issuance rate was 1.64%, down by 1 basis point [53]

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, China's current account surplus increased by 250% year-on-year to $165.4 billion, marking a historical high[3] - The current account surplus accounted for 3.7% of GDP, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, remaining within the internationally recognized reasonable range of ±4%[3] Trade Performance - The goods trade surplus grew by 90% year-on-year to $237.5 billion, the second highest on record, only below the previous quarter's surplus of $249.8 billion[4] - Goods exports increased by 6% year-on-year to $853.7 billion, setting a new historical high, while imports decreased by 7% to $580.7 billion, the lowest since 2021[4] Capital Account Dynamics - The capital account deficit (including net errors and omissions) expanded for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching $196.6 billion, the fourth highest on record[11] - The online capital account deficit was $171.8 billion, the second highest ever, significantly larger than the $19.7 billion deficit from the previous year[11] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign direct investment (FDI) saw a net inflow of $200 million, down from $505 million year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in foreign debt investment[21] - The net inflow of foreign equity investment rose to $253 million, the highest since Q2 2023, driven by a recovery in stock investments[21] Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $38.3 billion to $3.24 trillion in Q1 2025, despite a decrease in reserve assets due to short-term capital outflows[27] - The valuation effect contributed positively to the reserves, with an estimated impact of $71 billion from currency and asset price changes[27] Private Sector Positioning - By the end of March 2025, China's private sector transitioned from a net liability position to a net asset position of $78.5 billion, the first such shift since 2004[32] - The private sector's foreign assets increased by $40.3 billion, while liabilities rose by $16.4 billion, reflecting a significant change in investment behavior[33]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a decline in oil tanker rates, with the VLCC market experiencing a significant price drop of 14.31% compared to June 19, with current rates at WS59.88 [3][12] - In the shipping sector, the demand for European routes has improved, resulting in a 10.6% increase in spot market booking prices, while the US routes have seen a decline of 7.0% and 11.9% for the West and East coasts, respectively [3][14] - During the summer travel season, Hainan Airlines plans to operate nearly 2,500 flights daily, with domestic ticket bookings reaching 17.9 million, a 5% increase year-on-year [3][15] - The newly unveiled Zhuque eVTOL has a range of 600 kilometers, and from January to May, national railway freight volume increased by 3.1% year-on-year, totaling 1.641 billion tons [3][22] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The Middle East situation has calmed, leading to a reduction in oil tanker rates and a return to supply-demand fundamentals [12] - Hainan Airlines is set to launch 75 new domestic and international routes during the summer travel season, with a daily flight plan of nearly 2,500 [15] - The Zhuque eVTOL was showcased, achieving a range of 600 kilometers, while railway freight volume showed a year-on-year increase [22] 2. High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air logistics: The overall trend for routes to the Asia-Pacific remains stable, with air freight prices showing a decline [25] - Shipping ports: The domestic container shipping price index has decreased, while dry bulk freight rates have also fallen [43] - Express logistics: In May 2025, express delivery volume increased by 17.20% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 8.20% [54] - Air travel: The average daily international flights in the last week of June 2025 increased by 17.51% year-on-year [3] - Road and rail: The number of freight trucks on highways increased by 0.88% week-on-week [3] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Investment opportunities in the road and rail sector, recommending Sichuan Chengyu, Gansu Expressway, and others [4] - Interest in cruise and ferry investment opportunities, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Co [4] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [4] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and others [4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that under the current weak replenishment cycle, A-shares are expected to outperform other asset classes, with a recommendation to increase the allocation to A-shares while reducing commodity assets [2][24][25] - The report predicts a weak recovery in A-share earnings, with a projected growth rate of 0-5% for the second half of 2025, and a valuation contribution of 0-7%, leading to an expected median increase of 7% in A-shares [39][40] - The report identifies small-cap stocks, strong reversals, high valuations, and high profitability as the dominant market styles for the second half of 2025, with a particular focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors [46][47][48] Group 2 - The technology sector is highlighted as a high-probability choice for index breakout, supported by stable capital market commitments and sufficient policy reserves [54] - The report outlines two scenarios for industry allocation: one under a fluctuating market and another under a potential upward breakout, indicating the need for strategic planning [54] - The report suggests that the AI and humanoid robotics industries are expected to experience significant growth, with a focus on high-growth and consumption styles in the top ten recommended industries for the second half of 2025 [24][39]

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the total profit of industrial enterprises in China, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% for the first five months of 2025, indicating a slowdown in industrial profitability [6][8] - High-tech manufacturing continues to support the profitability of industrial enterprises, suggesting a potential area for investment [6][7] - The report notes that while operating income for industrial enterprises grew by 2.7%, the growth rate has narrowed, indicating cost pressures that may affect profitability [6][7] Macroeconomic Overview - The total profit of industrial enterprises reached 27,204.3 billion yuan in the first five months, with a significant drop in May, where profits fell by 9.1% year-on-year [6][7] - The operating income for industrial enterprises showed a slight increase, with a profit margin of 5.0%, which is a marginal improvement from the previous month [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need for demand-side policies to stimulate growth, particularly in the real estate sector, which remains a significant shortfall in domestic demand [7][8] Industry Performance - The report provides a snapshot of various industry performances, with the non-ferrous metals sector showing a positive growth of 2.17%, while the banking sector experienced a decline of 2.95% [5] - The overall industrial production activity remains active, with an industrial added value growth of 6.3% year-on-year, although price pressures persist due to weak demand [7][8] - The report indicates that the prices of key commodities such as crude oil and iron ore have decreased, impacting the profitability of domestic industrial enterprises [8]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the real estate sector, particularly focusing on the potential of asset-backed securities and public REITs as investment opportunities [3][4]. Core Insights - The asset-backed securities (ABS) market in China has surpassed 3 trillion yuan, indicating its significance in the capital market. The growth in public REITs is expected to provide better exit channels for real estate companies, especially those with substantial real estate holdings [2][3][27]. - The report emphasizes the advantages of real estate as a suitable asset for securitization due to its inherent rental properties that generate stable cash flows and potential for appreciation [13][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Asset Securitization Overview - Asset securitization has evolved into a crucial financing tool in China's capital market, with a focus on transforming illiquid assets into liquid securities [13][14]. - The report categorizes standardized asset securitization products into credit ABS, corporate ABS, and asset-backed notes (ABN), highlighting the differences in regulatory oversight and asset types [25][26]. 2. Market Scale and Growth - As of May 2025, the total scale of asset securitization products in China reached 3.09 trillion yuan, accounting for 6.2% of the total bond market [27][29]. - The issuance of asset securitization products saw a significant increase in 2024, with 2,085 products issued, totaling 1.98 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [36][38]. 3. REITs Development - The report outlines the development of REITs in China, noting the transition from initial trials to a more structured and regular issuance process, with a total of 66 public REITs issued by May 2025, amounting to approximately 1744 billion yuan [19][21][22]. - The expansion of REITs into various sectors, including rental housing and commercial real estate, is highlighted as a significant opportunity for real estate companies to optimize their asset management and liquidity [3][19]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable and mature asset portfolios in the long-term rental apartment and commercial real estate sectors, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Longfor Group [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [1]. Core Insights - The company, Suochen Technology, is a leading domestic CAE software enterprise, deeply engaged in the defense and military sectors while continuously expanding into the civilian market. The launch of its physical AI platform is expected to empower the industrial and manufacturing sectors, creating new growth opportunities [1][5][8]. Summary by Sections Stock Performance - The company's stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 36.3%, with a 12-month performance of 47.2% [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5.1 billion, 6.9 billion, and 9.2 billion RMB, respectively. Net profit for the same period is expected to be 0.88 billion, 1.16 billion, and 1.58 billion RMB, with EPS of 0.99, 1.30, and 1.78 RMB, respectively. The PE ratios are projected to be 72.3, 55.2, and 40.4 times [5][7]. Company Overview - Suochen Technology focuses on the research, development, and sales of CAE software, with a strong emphasis on fluid, structural, and electromagnetic algorithms. The company has established a solid reputation in the defense sector and is expanding into civilian markets, aiming to become a "Chinese Dassault" [8][16]. Market Position - The domestic CAE market is currently dominated by foreign companies, with Ansys, Siemens, and Dassault Systems holding nearly 50% of the market share. However, domestic companies are gradually increasing their market presence, with a reported 16.2% market share for domestic CAE software in 2022, up from 7% in 2016 [50][61]. Product Development - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix, with its engineering simulation software contributing over 50% of revenue and more than 70% of gross profit from 2019 to 2024. The physical AI platform launched in March 2025 is designed to enhance simulation efficiency and accuracy, targeting commercial applications [8][26][50].

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas of focus for June include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to export dynamics, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [4][11] - The report suggests a mid-to-long-term investment strategy focusing on high oil prices, robust performance in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the growth potential in new materials, particularly in electronic and renewable energy materials [4][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of June 29, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemicals sector is 22.34, at the 63.93 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.83, at the 14.09 percentile historically. For the oil and petrochemical sector, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 10.98, at the 15.69 percentile historically, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.19, at the 2.39 percentile historically [4][11] Price Changes - In the week of June 23-29, 38 chemical products saw price increases, 38 saw decreases, and 24 remained stable. The average price of WTI crude oil fell by 12.56% to $65.52 per barrel, while Brent crude fell by 12.00% to $67.77 per barrel. The average price of MDI decreased by 1.59% to 15,500 CNY/ton, while H acid increased by 5.39% to 44,000 CNY/ton [10][28][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend policies and those in high-growth sectors such as oil and gas, electronic materials, and new energy materials. Specific companies highlighted for investment include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and several others in the electronic materials sector [4][11]

计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 6 月 30 日 强于大市 多因素催化下，网络安全景 气度有望提升 计算机行业"一周解码" 本周（6.23-6.28）网络安全指数（884133.WI）和数据安全指数（8841651WI） 上涨较多。我们认为主要催化因素包括：跨境支付通正式上线；央行将制定 新阶段金融科技发展规划，并开展数据要素试点；国泰君安获虚拟资产交易 牌，虚拟资产交易有望扩容，催生加密安全技术需求。 支撑评级的要点 (1)科大讯飞：在 2025 全球元宇宙大会上，科大讯飞副总裁于亮介绍了公 司在人工智能领域的最新成果，并表示正探索利用 AI 技术提升元宇宙交 互体验，如通过语音合成等技术让虚拟人更智能。 (2)新北洋：公告拟使用自有资金 5000 万元设立全资子公司新疆北洋海丝 数字科技有限公司，以满足业务发展和提升运营效率。 投资建议 建议关注网络安全、跨境支付等相关企业，包括安恒信息、恒宝股份、 吉大正元、南天信息等。 评级面临的主要风险 技术创新不及预期；政策推行不到位；下游需求景气度不稳定的风险。 相关研究报告 《计算机行业"一周解码"》20250623 《计算机行业"一周解 ...

Macro Economy - The report emphasizes the importance of financial support in stabilizing growth in the second half of the year, with a focus on consumption, real estate, and monetary policy adjustments [5][19][20] - The industrial profits of major enterprises decreased by 9.1% year-on-year in May, indicating challenges in effective demand and industrial product prices [4][18] Asset Allocation - The recommended order of asset allocation is stocks > commodities > bonds > currency, reflecting a bullish outlook on stocks due to anticipated policy implementations [5][12] - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, a underweight position in bonds, and a neutral stance on commodities and currencies [3][12] Stock Market Performance - A-shares showed a positive trend, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.95% and the CSI 300 futures increasing by 2.83% [11][12] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with technology and defense industries leading the gains [35][36] Bond Market Insights - The yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 1 basis point to 1.65%, indicating a slight upward trend in bond yields [11][41] - The report notes a divergence in the bond market, with credit spreads and term spreads showing slight increases [41][43] Commodity Market Analysis - Commodity prices experienced fluctuations, with coking coal futures rising by 4.64% and iron ore contracts increasing by 1.64% [11][12] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor fiscal policies related to commodity markets [5][12] Currency and Forex Trends - The report indicates that the yield on money market funds is expected to fluctuate around 2%, reflecting a cautious outlook on currency investments [3][12] - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate is supported by the economic fundamentals, allowing for wide fluctuations [3][12]