证券研究报告 宏观 春运出行较为活跃 2026 年 2 月 08 日│中国内地 国内周报 一周概览 农历春节对齐后的高频数据显示，春运前五天人员流动量同比景气度较高， 节前工业生产活动同比有所降温，新房和二手房成交同比亦有所回落；港口 高频指标显示 1 月出口或保持较高景气度。上周人民币兑美元汇率升值、国 债收益率趋平，银行间流动性整体偏松；本周重点关注 1 月通胀数据和货币 信贷"开门红"成色。 高频经济活动跟踪 居民出行景气度小幅回落，工业生产与建筑开工和地产成交同比仍偏弱。出 行及消费方面，春运前 5 天（2 月 2-6 日）全社会跨区域人员流动量累计同 比增长 1.9%，其中公路/水路/民航发送旅客数量同比增长 2%/19.8%/5.8%， 而铁路发送客运量同比回落 0.7%；飞猪数据显示，截至 2 月 5 日，春节假 期高星级酒店预订量同比增长近 70%。节前工业生产趋于平淡，焦化/沥青/ 半钢胎企业开工率同比下行 2.6/4.8/6.1 个百分点；建筑开工需求偏弱，建 筑钢材成交量同比降幅走阔至 47.4%，而偏低基数下水泥开工/发运率同比 上行 5.1/1.8 个百分点。出口及物流方面，出口高频 ...

证券研究报告 +(86) 10 6321 1166 张皓怡* 研究员 SAC No. S0570522020001 zhanghaoyi@htsc.com 寒武纪 (688256 CH) 新品进展顺利，上调 27 年预测 目标价(人民币): 1,679.40 郭龙飞* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080001 guolongfei@htsc.com 林文富* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525100003 linwenfu@htsc.com 王心怡 研究员 SAC No. S0570523110001 SFC No. BTB527 xinyi.wang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 2 月 6 日) | 1,037 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 437,283 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 12,998 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 523.50-1,587.91 | 股价走势图 (13) 32 77 121 166 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Amazon with a target price of $260 [6]. Core Insights - Amazon's Q4 revenue increased by 13.6% year-over-year to $213.4 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by 1% [1]. - The company reported a Q4 operating profit of $27.4 billion, which was 4% above expectations, and a net profit increase of 6% to $21.2 billion [1]. - Capital expenditures for Q4 reached $38.5 billion, surpassing expectations by 12% [1]. - Concerns arose regarding cash flow and high valuation due to a significant increase in 2026 Capex guidance to $200 billion, compared to the expected $147.5 billion [2]. - AWS revenue growth was 24% year-over-year, although it lagged behind competitors like Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure [3]. - The company is focusing on high-end organic grocery products through its Whole Foods brand, with plans to open over 100 new stores in the coming years [4]. - Adjustments to revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were made, reflecting a slowdown in AWS growth and increased capital expenditures [5]. Financial Performance - Q4 operating margin was reported at 11.3%, with a net margin of 10.7% [18]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $137.5 billion and $178.5 billion, aligning with expectations [2]. - The annualized revenue for AWS is projected to exceed $100 billion, with significant contributions from self-developed chips like Trainium and Graviton [3]. - The report anticipates a decrease in net profit margins due to increased capital expenditures and depreciation [5]. Business Segments - North American e-commerce revenue grew by 10%, while international e-commerce revenue increased by 17% [4]. - The grocery business is transitioning to focus on high-end organic products, with a total annual sales exceeding $150 billion [4]. - The AI shopping assistant Rufus has expanded its user base to over 300 million, significantly increasing transaction probabilities for users [15]. Future Outlook - The report projects Amazon's revenue for 2026 to be $806 billion, with net profit expected to reach $84 billion [8]. - The company is investing heavily in its Leo project, which aims to provide low-orbit satellite internet services, enhancing its cloud offerings [15]. - AWS is expected to enter a new pricing cycle, with recent price increases for EC2 instances indicating strong demand for cloud services [10].

证券研究报告 东京电子 (8035 JP) 存储订单增长推动业绩迅速回升 华泰研究 季报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 2026 年 2 月 08 日│日本 科技 目标价(日元): 52,000.00 黄乐平，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050001 SFC No. AUZ066 leping.huang@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 股价走势图 资料来源：S&P (34) (8) 19 46 72 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 东京电子 日经225 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (日元) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (十亿) | 2,432 | 2,414 | 2,773 | 3,195 | | +/-% | 32.83 | (0.72) | 14.86 | 15.22 | | 归属母公司净利润 | 544 | 550 | 614 | 737 | | (十亿) | | | | | | +/-% | 49.50 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies in the prepared food industry, specifically for Anjuke Food (2648 HK, 603345 CH) and Sanquan Food (002216 CH) [5][11]. Core Insights - The introduction of national standards for prepared foods is expected to enhance industry order and standardization, benefiting leading companies due to their comprehensive advantages in R&D, production, cold chain logistics, and quality control [6][7]. - The prepared food industry is transitioning from a chaotic phase to a more regulated one, with the new standards raising entry barriers and improving consumer confidence in product quality [9][10]. - The report anticipates a strong demand for inventory ahead of the Spring Festival, with a recovery in channel confidence, and a long-term trend towards food industrialization [7][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The prepared food industry is undergoing a process of standardization, with the new national standards defining the scope and management of prepared foods, emphasizing the control of food contaminants and additives [6][9]. - The standards stipulate that the maximum shelf life of prepared foods should not exceed 12 months, which aligns with the health-conscious consumption trend [10]. Company Recommendations - Anjuke Food (2648 HK) is highlighted as a leader in the frozen hot pot ingredient sector, with a target price of 99.38 HKD, benefiting from improved fundamentals and a rational competitive landscape [12]. - Anjuke Food (603345 CH) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 113.04 CNY, as the company is expected to see profit recovery and growth driven by product innovation and structural adjustments [12]. - Sanquan Food (002216 CH) is recommended with a target price of 13.44 CNY, as the company is focusing on product innovation and channel diversification to improve operational quality [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the technology and computer sectors [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing evolution of AI models, particularly focusing on the advancements in Agent capabilities and the increasing differentiation between computing power and SaaS applications [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections AI Models - DeepSeek has launched DeepSeek-OCR 2, which enhances visual understanding capabilities and aims to improve the next generation of models [10][23]. - Kimi K2.5 introduces the Agent Swarm architecture, significantly improving efficiency in complex tasks through parallel agents [24][30]. - Tencent's CL-bench aims to quantify and improve the context learning capabilities of large models, revealing a need for better handling of new knowledge [32][39]. AI Computing - The report identifies Agent penetration as the next acceleration point for token usage, with significant advancements in long-chain task capabilities observed since late 2025 [2][49]. - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) have reported continuous growth in capital expenditures, indicating optimistic AI demand [50][51]. AI Applications - The performance of cloud service providers has accelerated, with AI application companies exceeding market expectations in Q4 2025, while SaaS market expectations remain pessimistic [3][57]. - The report anticipates a comprehensive acceleration in global AI applications in 2026, with potential for SaaS companies to realize product value and corporate re-evaluation [3][57]. AI for Science (AI4S) - The report highlights the commercialization potential of AI in biopharmaceuticals and materials science, predicting significant advancements in 2026 [4][17]. Monthly Focus - The report discusses the rapid iteration of Agentic Coding products and the potential restructuring of the software industry due to advancements in agent applications [5][28].

证券研究报告 港股通 双周期共振下牧业龙头或迎价值重估 2026 年 2 月 07 日│中国香港 饮料 我们认为，26 年公司经营基本面与盈利预期有望迎来积极改善：一方面， 原奶行业周期再平衡时点将至，26 年原奶价格有望企稳回升，或将直接修 复公司核心盈利；另一方面，肉牛板块有望迎来价格主升浪，或将为公司带 来显著利润弹性。叠加收购中国圣牧的潜在结构优化，公司规模壁垒与抗周 期能力将持续强化，业绩修复与估值提升的空间有望逐步打开。 26 年原奶周期再平衡时点将至，B 端深加工业务国产替代加速演绎 本轮周期中奶牛存栏持续调减，低效产能加速出清，叠加下游乳制品需求有 望回暖、奶酪和奶油等深加工产品的国产替代持续进行，原奶供需矛盾持续 缓解，行业供需再平衡进程加快。据农业农村部，26 年 1 月生鲜乳价格均 值为 3.03 元/公斤，同比-3%、环比基本持平。现代牧业作为国内原奶核心 供应龙头，自有牧场规模与奶源稳定性优势突出，未来或受益于原奶价格修 复带来的盈利改善。 26 年牛肉价格或迎来主升浪，或进一步增强公司报表利润弹性 23-24 年国内肉牛产能持续去化，或导致 26 年实际牛肉供给不足，叠加商 务部对 ...

证券研究报告 超威半导体(AMD) (AMD US) 客户集中度和订单节奏成焦点 华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 300.00 何翩翩 研究员 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 +(852) 3658 6000 易楚妍 联系人 yichuyan@htsc.com SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 +(86) 21 2897 2228 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (美元 截至 2 月 3 日) | 242.11 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (美元百万) | 394,165 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (美元百万) | 10,324 | | 52 周价格范围 (美元) | 76.48-267.08 | 股价走势图 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (美元) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with a long-term target of 35,000 stores, driven by a unique "onion ring" expansion strategy and strong supply chain capabilities [2][12]. - The introduction of new product categories, including coffee and desserts, is anticipated to enhance store efficiency and broaden customer demographics, contributing to sustained growth [3][19]. - The company is projected to achieve an adjusted net profit of 2.913 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17% and a net profit margin of 18.3% [4][24]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 36.73 HKD, reflecting a 27x PE for 2026 [6][5]. Store Expansion Potential - The company is projected to reach a store count of 35,375 by leveraging regional density improvements and supply-demand growth perspectives [14][2]. - The expansion strategy focuses on deepening market penetration in existing regions while exploring new markets, with a significant increase in store density expected in both established and emerging areas [12][13]. Product and Service Diversification - The company has accelerated its transformation into a multi-category "beverage convenience store," introducing new products that fill gaps in non-peak consumption times, thus expanding its customer base [3][19]. - The new store model (version 6.0) aims to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, supporting the brand's transition from scale expansion to quality improvement [21][22]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2026 is set at 2.913 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 17% and a healthy net profit margin of 18.3% [4][24]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in adjusted net profit from 2.486 billion RMB in 2025 to 2.913 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][24]. Core Insights - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with a long-term target of 35,000 stores, driven by a unique "onion ring" expansion strategy and strong supply chain capabilities [2][14]. - The company is transitioning from a tea beverage leader to a multi-category pioneer, introducing new product lines such as coffee, desserts, and HPP juices, which are expected to enhance store efficiency and broaden customer demographics [3][19]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.913 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17%, with a net profit margin of 18.3% [4][24]. Summary by Sections Store Expansion Potential - The company has a long-term store expansion potential of approximately 35,375 stores, based on regional density improvements and supply-demand growth perspectives [2][14]. - The company has entered new provinces and strengthened its competitive barriers in existing regions, enhancing brand recognition and supply chain synergy [12][13]. Product and Store Model Innovation - The company has accelerated its transformation into a multi-category "beverage convenience store," effectively filling gaps in non-peak consumption periods and expanding its customer base [3][19]. - The introduction of the 6.0 store model aims to enhance brand quality and customer experience, with a focus on optimizing dining experiences and increasing in-store consumption [21][22]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.486 billion, 2.913 billion, and 3.693 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of 1.05, 1.22, and 1.55 RMB [5][10]. - The target price has been raised to 36.73 HKD, reflecting a 27x PE ratio for 2026, indicating a strong growth outlook despite potential short-term challenges [24][26].