Group 1: Arbitrage Strategy Overview - The term "IRR" refers to the Implied Repo Rate, which indicates the theoretical annualized return from buying cash bonds and shorting futures for delivery[12] - The two main arbitrage strategies are "positive arbitrage" (shorting futures while buying cash bonds) and "negative arbitrage" (going long on futures while shorting cash bonds)[11] - Positive arbitrage is considered to have a near risk-free nature, and it is compared with high-grade interbank deposit yields[13] Group 2: Performance and Backtesting - In the first half of 2025, there were periods of high positive arbitrage yields, particularly for the TS2506 and TF2506 contracts, with IRR values of 2.20% and 2.05% respectively[18][25] - Backtesting results show that constructing a positive arbitrage strategy for TS2506 yielded higher returns than holding cash bonds until delivery, while TF2506 underperformed compared to directly holding 5-year cash bonds[26] - The IRR for the T2312 contract was 3.93% on October 31, 2023, significantly higher than the 1-month deposit yield of 2.50%[17] Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a focus on the TL2603 contract for shorting basis opportunities as it approaches delivery[4] - The IRS strategy shows limited upside potential, while interbank deposits are considered to have better value[5] - Current IRR levels for various contracts are fluctuating, with T2603's IRR ranging from 1.13% to 1.76%, indicating no significant advantage over 3-month interbank deposit rates[73]

证券研究报告 谷歌 (GOOGL US) 高 CapEx 投入强化云业务增长动能 华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 415.00 何翩翩 研究员 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 夏路路 研究员 SAC No. S0570523100002 SFC No. BTP154 丁骄琬 研究员 SAC No. S0570523040003 dingjiaowan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 易楚妍 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 股价走势图 资料来源：S&P (25) 1 28 54 80 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 谷歌 标普500 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (美元) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 415.00 何翩翩 研究员 证券研究报告 谷歌 (GOOGL US) 高 CapEx 投入强化云业务增长动能 SAC No. S0570523020002 SFC No. ASI353 夏路路 研究员 SAC No. S0570523100002 SFC No. BTP154 丁骄琬 研究员 SAC No. S0570523040003 dingjiaowan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 易楚妍 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070123 SFC No. BXH065 韩冬冰* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070150 handongbing@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 牟睿捷* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070064 mouruijie@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (美元 截至 2 月 4 日) | 333.04 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (美元百万) | 4,018,794 | | 6 ...

Group 1: Economic and Industry Trends - The overall industry prosperity index rose for the second consecutive month in January, with significant improvements in upstream resources, midstream materials, consumer staples, and TMT sectors [3] - Price increases, AI advancements, and external demand are driving internal prosperity across various sectors, with expectations of further recovery in consumption and travel chains during the Spring Festival [3] - Specific sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and certain chemicals are experiencing a rebound in prosperity, while AI-related applications are seeing differentiated growth [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Strategies - The report discusses the use of futures for enhancing returns in a low-interest-rate environment, focusing on the common strategy of cash-futures arbitrage [4] - Positive yield periods for cash-futures arbitrage were noted in the first half of 2025, particularly for specific contracts, indicating potential for increased portfolio returns [4] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Central banks are reallocating assets towards gold, which is expected to support long-term price increases, with projections suggesting gold prices could rise to $5400-$6800 per ounce by 2026-2028 [8] - The report highlights a shift in gold pricing dynamics, potentially moving from a framework dominated by real interest rates to one influenced by credit risk hedging [8] Group 4: Renewable Energy Sector - Wind and solar companies are facing profitability pressures due to low-priced project deliveries, but a recovery trend is anticipated in 2026 as order prices for wind turbines improve [8] - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability recovery in the solar sector through enhanced supply chain management and the introduction of high-power products [8] Group 5: Construction Materials - The electronic fabric market is entering a new price upcycle due to supply constraints and recovering demand, with significant price increases reported by leading manufacturers [9] - The report indicates that high-end electronic fabrics are expected to continue experiencing supply shortages, leading to further price hikes [9] Group 6: Coal Market Dynamics - Export restrictions from Indonesia could significantly impact China's coal consumption, potentially driving up spot coal prices [10] Group 7: Macro Economic Analysis - The report analyzes the potential impacts of the Lunar New Year on macroeconomic data, emphasizing the need to filter out distortions caused by the holiday [11] Group 8: Japanese Political Landscape - The upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election is expected to favor the ruling party, which may lead to more expansive fiscal policies and impact the stock market positively while negatively affecting bonds and the yen [12] Group 9: Company-Specific Insights - Lin Qingxuan is highlighted as a rapidly growing high-end skincare brand with a clear market positioning and product strategy, receiving a "buy" rating with a target price of 130.88 HKD [19] - Google is projected to see significant growth in its cloud business, despite concerns over increased capital expenditures, maintaining a "buy" rating [15] - Sony's strong performance in gaming and sensors is noted, with a target price adjustment to 5,000 JPY while maintaining a "buy" rating [16] - Eaton is expected to benefit from data center demand and operational efficiency, with a target price of 418 USD and a "hold" rating [17]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Lin Qingxuan with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 130.88, corresponding to a 2026 adjusted PE of 28x [6][11]. Core Insights - Lin Qingxuan focuses on high-end anti-wrinkle and firming products, pioneering the "oil-based skincare" concept. The brand has a clear positioning and product category mindset, with significant growth potential in its market segment [6][10]. - The company has developed its flagship product, Camellia Oil, into its fifth generation, and its "1+4" product strategy includes a diverse range of products such as lotions, toners, creams, serums, and sunscreens, which are expected to drive future growth [6][8]. - Lin Qingxuan's omnichannel sales network supports steady growth in both online and offline sales, with strong R&D capabilities expected to reinforce its market leadership in niche segments and enable product innovation [6][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Lin Qingxuan are as follows: - 2024: RMB 1,210 million (+50.27%) - 2025: RMB 2,218 million (+83.34%) - 2026: RMB 3,214 million (+44.91%) - 2027: RMB 4,464 million (+38.91%) [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2024: RMB 200.24 million (+126.37%) - 2025: RMB 385.40 million (+92.47%) - 2026: RMB 589.34 million (+52.92%) - 2027: RMB 821.16 million (+39.33%) [5][11]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to be 11.0% in 2023 and 16.6% in 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency [10][24]. Market Dynamics - The "oil-based skincare" market is currently experiencing rapid penetration growth, driven by product innovation, increased brand investment in product education, and a shift in consumer awareness towards skin barrier repair [7][21]. - Lin Qingxuan has established a strong brand identity around the Camellia flower ingredient, which has become synonymous with its product offerings, enhancing consumer recognition and loyalty [8][22]. - The company has a robust offline presence with 554 stores as of the first half of 2025, and it is actively expanding its online sales channels, leveraging live streaming and collaborations with KOLs to capture growth opportunities [9][22]. Competitive Positioning - Lin Qingxuan's ability to incubate successful single products and replicate this success across categories positions it favorably within the high-end skincare market, which is relatively concentrated [10][17]. - The company’s focus on high-quality raw materials and integrated supply chain management is expected to solidify its leadership in niche markets [23][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of $418.00 [1][5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $70.55 billion for Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a full-year revenue of $274.48 billion, up 10% year-on-year. The operating profit margin was 24.9% for Q4 2025 and 24.5% for FY25, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching $11.32 billion for Q4 2025, a 16.6% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from high demand in the electrical equipment sector, particularly from data center orders, which are projected to continue contributing to revenue growth. The company announced the acquisition of Boyd in November 2025 to enhance its liquid cooling product offerings and plans to spin off its mobility business to focus on its core electrical equipment operations [1][3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company's electrical Americas and global segments achieved revenues of $35.06 billion and $17.28 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 21% and 10%. The operating profit margins were 29.8% and 19.7%, with the Americas segment experiencing a decline in profit margin due to capacity expansion costs [2] - The company expects to see a significant increase in data center orders in 2025, with projections of 200% growth in the U.S. and 80% in Europe. AI and cloud services are anticipated to account for 50% of new data center orders [2] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on enhancing its data center equipment supply chain and has announced the acquisition of Boyd to enter the liquid cooling market. This acquisition is expected to increase the market value of data center offerings from $2.9 million/MW to $3.4 million/MW, with an anticipated revenue contribution of approximately $1.7 billion from Boyd in 2026 [3][4] - The company is investing $1.5 billion to expand its production capacity across about 200 projects, with half of these expected to be completed by mid-2025. The remaining projects are projected to be completed by the first half of 2026, leading to a capacity release period from late 2026 to 2027 [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026-2028 is $48.8 billion, $56.6 billion, and $63.6 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of $12.48, $14.47, and $16.27 per share. The company is assigned a PE ratio of 33.5x for 2026, reflecting an 8% premium over comparable companies [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for precious metals is "Overweight" (Maintain) [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the long-term increase in gold holdings by central banks is driven by concerns over the creditworthiness of dollar assets, the need for stable exchange rates in extreme scenarios, and geopolitical risks. It is projected that central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves, stabilizing at around 800 tons per year from 2026 to 2030 [2] - The report anticipates that the average gold price could rise to between $5,400 and $6,800 per ounce from 2026 to 2028, driven by a potential increase in the investment allocation of gold in global financial assets [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Gold Price Projections - The average gold price is expected to reach $6,800 per ounce by 2028, with projections for 2026 and 2027 being $5,463 and $6,059 per ounce respectively. This is based on historical distribution of gold allocation and structural shifts due to de-dollarization and geopolitical factors [6][12] Section 2: Central Bank Demand - Central banks are expected to maintain a long-term increase in gold holdings, with the proportion of gold in reserves projected to rise to 21.4% by mid-2025. If this proportion reaches the historical median of 34% by 2035, the demand for gold could continue to grow [2] Section 3: Non-Investment Demand - Non-investment demand for gold, primarily from jewelry and industrial uses, is expected to stabilize. Jewelry demand is projected to average around 1,951 tons per year, while industrial demand is expected to remain steady at approximately 332 tons per year [3] Section 4: Investment Demand - The report estimates that the stock of gold allocated for personal and institutional investment will gradually increase, with projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 being 85,713 tons, 86,642 tons, and 87,953 tons respectively [4] Section 5: Financial Asset Allocation - There is still room for increased allocation of gold in global financial assets, with the expected market value of investable gold reaching approximately $15.1 trillion, $16.9 trillion, and $19.3 trillion in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [5][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The report indicates that the electronic fabric industry is entering a new price increase cycle due to supply constraints and recovering demand, particularly for ordinary electronic fabrics, which are expected to see significant price increases starting in 2026 [1][2] - The report highlights that the recent price increase for ordinary electronic yarns has been the largest since early 2025, with prices exceeding 10,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a tight supply-demand situation [2] - The supply of ordinary electronic yarn is expected to have limited net growth in 2026, with new production lines contributing less than 10% to current capacity, while high demand for specialty electronic fabrics continues to drive prices upward [3] - Major companies in the industry, such as China Jushi and International Composites, are expected to benefit significantly from the price increases, with estimated net profit increments of 4.4 million yuan for China Jushi, 1.1 million yuan for International Composites, and 1.1 million yuan for Honghe Technology [4] Summary by Sections Price Increases - As of February 4, 2025, the price of G75 ordinary electronic yarn has increased to 10,300-10,700 yuan per ton, marking a more than 10% increase, while the price of E225 electronic yarn is 25,000 yuan per ton and D450 is 51,000 yuan per ton [2] - The main market price for 7628 electronic fabric is currently 5.1-5.5 yuan per meter, reflecting a 10-13% increase [2] Supply Constraints - The report notes that there are no new production lines for ordinary electronic yarn expected to come online until 2026, with only limited capacity increases from existing producers [3] - The rising prices of upstream metals and precious alloys are expected to further suppress supply, as they significantly impact investment and operational costs [3] Demand Recovery - Demand for ordinary electronic fabrics is anticipated to grow due to policies promoting upgrades in home appliances and new energy vehicles, alongside a surge in AI hardware demand [4] - The inventory levels of major companies are at manageable levels, with China Jushi, International Composites, and Honghe Technology holding 37.2 billion, 19.2 billion, and 1.7 billion yuan in inventory, respectively [4]

证券研究报告 索尼 (6758 JP) 游戏/音乐/传感器表现亮眼，看好 2026 年内容业务部分抵消存储影响 分业务来看，游戏/音乐/传感器业务贡献了主要利润增量：1）游戏业务季度 营收/营业利润同比-4%/+19%。虽然 PS5 硬件销量受周期性因素下滑，但 网络服务和第一方软件销售强劲，公司上调游戏业务全年营业利润指引 2% 至 JPY 510bn；2）音乐业务季度营收/营业利润同比+13%/+9%，主要受益 于流媒体收益和现场活动的拉动。公司将音乐业务全年营业利润指引上调 16%至 JPY 445bn，除了核心业务增长外，更得益于花生漫画并表带来的约 450 亿日元一次性重估收益；3）影像及传感业务季度营收/营业利润同比 +21%/+35%，主要得益于大客户智能手机对高端传感器的旺盛需求以及产 品组合的持续优化，公司上调了该业务的全年营业利润指引 13%。 已锁定下财年存储最低供应量，涨价对利润影响仍需关注 行业性的存储芯片短缺成为关注焦点，根据 TrendForce 预测（2026/2/2）， 2026年第一季度通用DRAM合约价格预计将环比上涨约90-95%，而NAND Flash 合约价预计环比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the wind and solar industries are facing performance pressures in Q4 2025, but there is optimism for profit recovery and trends in space photovoltaics [1][9]. - The report emphasizes that the profitability of companies in the solar industry is heavily reliant on gross margins and cash flow, especially in the context of rising silver prices impacting battery component costs [5][9]. - The development of space photovoltaics is seen as a new business model, with significant advancements expected from leading solar companies [6][9]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - In Q4 2025, wind turbine manufacturers experienced margin pressure due to low-priced domestic projects and a decline in profits from project transfers, leading to performance below consensus expectations [4]. - The report anticipates that the delivery of price-increased orders in 2026 will support profit recovery in the wind power supply chain, with accelerated construction of offshore wind projects laying the foundation for continued installation growth [4][9]. Solar Power - The report notes that the significant rise in silver prices has increased battery component costs, with the Shanghai silver index rising by 56% from the end of September to the end of December 2025, leading to a corresponding increase in costs of 5-6 cents per watt [5]. - Companies like JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and Trina Solar are expected to achieve mass production of low-silver products in the first half of 2026, which may benefit upstream material processing and powder manufacturers [5]. - The report suggests that in a context of weak demand, companies will focus on cost control and the introduction of high-power products to drive profit recovery [9]. Space Photovoltaics - SpaceX's acquisition of xAI is expected to create a space-ground-computing ecosystem, with advancements in space photovoltaics anticipated to continue [6]. - Leading solar companies are making significant R&D investments in space photovoltaics, with plans for commercial production of perovskite tandem solar cells expected between 2026 and 2028 [6]. - Companies like JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others are actively developing technologies and products for the space photovoltaic market, indicating a strong push towards commercialization [6][7].