Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Neutral Constraint Maximum Factor Exposure Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Maximize the exposure of the target factor in the portfolio while maintaining neutrality in industry and style exposures relative to the benchmark index[60][61][63] **Construction Process**: 1. **Objective Function**: Maximize portfolio exposure to the target factor $ \text{Max}\quad w^{\prime}X_{\text{target}} $ 2. **Constraints**: - Industry neutrality: $ (w - w_b)^{\prime}X_{\text{inad}} = 0 $ - Style neutrality: $ (w - w_b)^{\prime}X_{\text{Beta}} = 0 $ - Weight deviation limit: $ |w - w_b| \leq 1\% $ - No short selling: $ w \geq 0 $ - Full allocation: $ w^{\prime}1 = 1 $ - Constituents from benchmark index: $ w^{\prime}B = 1 $ **Evaluation**: The model ensures that the portfolio remains neutral to industry and style biases while maximizing factor exposure[60][61][63] Factor Construction and Definitions - **Factor Name**: Beta Factor **Construction Idea**: Capture the sensitivity of individual stock returns to market returns[14][15] **Construction Process**: - Calculate the regression coefficient of individual stock daily returns against the market index (CSI All Share Index) over the past 252 trading days using a half-life weighting of 63 days **Formula**: $ \text{Beta} = \text{Regression Coefficient} $ **Evaluation**: Reflects market risk sensitivity, useful for identifying high-risk or low-risk stocks[14][15] - **Factor Name**: Book-to-Price (BP) **Construction Idea**: Measure valuation by comparing book equity to market capitalization[14][15] **Construction Process**: - $ \text{BP} = \frac{\text{Shareholders' Equity}}{\text{Market Capitalization}} $ **Evaluation**: Indicates undervaluation or overvaluation of stocks, commonly used in value investing[14][15] - **Factor Name**: Sales Growth (SGRO) **Construction Idea**: Assess growth potential by analyzing historical revenue trends[14][15] **Construction Process**: - Perform regression on annual revenue data from the past five fiscal years - Divide the regression slope by the average revenue to calculate growth rate **Formula**: $ \text{SGRO} = \frac{\text{Regression Slope}}{\text{Average Revenue}} $ **Evaluation**: Useful for identifying companies with strong growth trajectories[14][15] Factor Backtesting Results - **Beta Factor**: Weekly long-short return of 7.50%, monthly return of 8.74%[16] - **Book-to-Price (BP)**: Weekly return of -0.27%, monthly return of 0.39%[21][26][30] - **Sales Growth (SGRO)**: Not explicitly tested in the report[14][15] Portfolio Backtesting Results - **Neutral Constraint Maximum Factor Exposure Portfolio**: - **CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return of 0.03%, monthly return of 1.91%, annual return of 1.34%[57][58] - **CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return of -1.29%, monthly return of -1.24%, annual return of -2.54%[57][58] - **CSI 800 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return of -0.32%, monthly return of 1.68%, annual return of 1.19%[57][58] - **CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return of -0.95%, monthly return of 1.33%, annual return of 13.01%[57][58] - **CSI 300 ESG Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return of 0.51%, monthly return of 2.44%, annual return of 7.72%[57][58] Factor Performance in Different Stock Pools - **CSI 300 Stock Pool**: - Weekly top-performing factors: Log Market Cap (0.83%), Single Quarter Operating Profit Growth (0.72%), 20-Day Specificity (0.71%)[21][23] - Monthly top-performing factors: Single Quarter EP (3.19%), EP_TTM (2.93%), Single Quarter ROE (2.63%)[24] - **CSI 500 Stock Pool**: - Weekly top-performing factors: 20-Day Specificity (1.39%), 60-Day Volume Ratio (1.13%), 60-Day Reversal (1.00%)[26][28] - Monthly top-performing factors: Single Quarter Revenue Growth (3.31%), Single Quarter Operating Profit Growth (2.73%), Single Quarter ROE Growth (2.72%)[28] - **CSI 800 Stock Pool**: - Weekly top-performing factors: Log Market Cap (1.59%), Single Quarter ROE Growth (1.20%), Single Quarter Operating Profit Growth (1.06%)[30][32] - Monthly top-performing factors: Single Quarter EP (4.36%), Single Quarter ROE Growth (3.90%), Single Quarter ROE (3.90%)[33] - **CSI 1000 Stock Pool**: - Weekly top-performing factors: 60-Day Reversal (1.40%), Single Quarter SP (1.30%), SP_TTM (1.29%)[35][37] - Monthly top-performing factors: Log Market Cap (3.66%), 60-Day Reversal (3.43%), Single Quarter Net Profit Growth (3.24%)[38] - **CSI 300 ESG Stock Pool**: - Weekly top-performing factors: Log Market Cap (1.05%), 20-Day Volume Ratio (0.63%), 20-Day Specificity (0.60%)[40][41] - Monthly top-performing factors: Log Market Cap (4.20%), Single Quarter ROE (2.55%), EP_TTM (2.49%)[42] - **All-Market Stock Pool**: - Weekly top-performing factors: Log Market Cap (24.81% Rank IC), 20-Day Specificity (21.07% Rank IC), 60-Day Reversal (19.50% Rank IC)[44][45] - Monthly top-performing factors: 20-Day Specificity (11.25% Rank IC), 20-Day Three-Factor Model Residual Volatility (10.96% Rank IC), 60-Day Specificity (10.73% Rank IC)[45]

Group 1: Gold and Jewelry - In H1 2025, gold prices surged, leading to a decline in gold jewelry consumption while investment gold consumption increased, continuing the trend from 2024 [13][17] - The report anticipates that in H2 2025, gold prices may fluctuate at high levels due to geopolitical conflicts and economic downturns, with central banks continuing to purchase gold [23] - Recommended companies include Laopuhuang, Chow Tai Fook, Chao Hong Ji, and Cai Bai Co., which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in gold consumption [23][24][26][30] Group 2: Cosmetics - The cosmetics market showed weak performance in H1 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.1% from January to May, lagging behind overall retail growth [32][35] - Long-term trends in the cosmetics industry remain focused on increasing penetration rates and domestic brand substitution, with a recommendation to focus on brands like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Co. for their strong performance and growth potential [35][36][42] - Mao Ge Ping is highlighted for its high-end positioning and significant growth in both online and offline channels, while Shangmei Co. has shown impressive performance during promotional events [36][42] Group 3: Personal Care - The personal care sector, particularly in sanitary napkins and oral care, is expected to maintain stable demand, with domestic brands leading the market [49][51] - The oral care segment is experiencing a shift towards higher-value products driven by consumer demand for efficacy, with domestic brands like Deng Kang Oral Care gaining market share [53][54] - Key companies to watch include Baiya Co. and Deng Kang Oral Care, which are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [49][53] Group 4: Apparel and Footwear - The apparel retail sector showed moderate growth in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in retail sales from January to May [8][14] - Outdoor brands are performing exceptionally well, with high-end outdoor brands like Amer Sports and Anta showing significant revenue growth [8][15] - Recommended companies include Anta Sports for its strong outdoor brand growth and Mercury Home Textiles for its effective marketing strategies [15][16] Group 5: Textile Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector is witnessing a shift in export share towards Southeast Asia, with a notable decline in imports from China to the U.S. [8][18] - The report indicates that U.S. apparel imports from Southeast Asia are increasing, while imports from China are decreasing, suggesting a strategic shift in manufacturing locations [18][19] - Companies with diversified production capabilities across regions are recommended for investment consideration [18][19] Group 6: Home Furnishings - The home furnishings market is experiencing growth driven by government policies encouraging upgrades, with furniture retail sales in May 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 25.6% [8][20] - Key players in the home furnishings sector include Gujia Home and Oppein Home, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing market trends [20][21]

Core Insights - In May, industrial enterprises' profits turned negative year-on-year, with a total profit of 27,204.3 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.1% compared to the previous year, and a significant drop of 9.1% in May alone [16][29] - The report highlights a mixed performance across various sectors, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) showing resilience while resource sectors and essential consumption face challenges [29] Industry Overview - The industrial profit margin weakened due to factors such as export slowdown, insufficient effective demand, and price pressures, leading to a negative profit growth in May [3][29] - The TMT sector experienced a year-on-year profit growth of 11.9%, driven by strong demand for smart consumer devices, with some industries like intelligent consumer equipment manufacturing seeing a profit increase of 101.5% [28][29] - In the resource sector, profits in the mining industry saw a year-on-year decline of 29.0%, while manufacturing and electricity sectors also reported reduced profit growth [20][29] Information Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index both increased, indicating a positive trend in the semiconductor market [31] - DDR4 DRAM prices rose by 4.42% for 8GB modules and 5.88% for 16GB modules, reflecting a recovery in memory prices [34] - North American PCB shipments turned positive year-on-year, although order growth has slowed [31][34] Midstream Manufacturing - The cumulative installed capacity of solar power generation in China increased year-on-year, indicating growth in the renewable energy sector [4][30] - Prices for silicon wafers in the photovoltaic industry declined, while production of packaging equipment and metal forming machine tools saw a slowdown in growth [4][30] Consumer Demand - The report noted an increase in pork prices and a rise in profits for pig farming, while prices for chicken chicks decreased [4][30] - The film industry showed positive trends with box office revenues increasing year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending [4][30] Resource Sector Tracking - Industrial metal prices generally increased, with a decline in inventories, while coal prices remained stable [4][30] - The cement price index showed a downward trend, indicating challenges in the construction materials market [4][30]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: new consumption, national subsidies driving demand, and the challenges posed by tariffs [1][4] - National subsidies have significantly supported domestic demand, with approximately 50% of the annual budget utilized by June 20, 2025, leading to over 1.3 trillion yuan in sales driven by the "old for new" policy [1][14] - The report highlights the strong performance of the home appliance sector during the 618 shopping festival, with total sales reaching 1.1 billion yuan, accounting for 13% of the overall e-commerce sales [20][21] Group 2 - New consumption trends are emerging, particularly in AI and robotics, with companies like Roborock, Ninebot, and Ecovacs leading the way in innovative product offerings [2][23] - The report notes a shift in the kitchen small appliance market from price competition to value competition, driven by new consumer demographics [28][33] - The performance of small household appliances is expected to rebound, with companies like Ecovacs and Roborock showing significant revenue growth in recent quarters [24][25] Group 3 - The report indicates that national subsidies are expected to continue without interruption, with additional funding batches scheduled for July and October 2025 [3][42] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with brands like Xiaomi and Gree engaging in price wars to maintain market share, particularly in the air conditioning segment [3][47] - The report suggests that companies with strong cash flow and high dividend rates, such as Gree Electric and Midea Group, are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing subsidy programs [4][5] Group 4 - The tariff situation poses risks and opportunities for companies engaged in overseas manufacturing, with firms like Ousheng Electric and Dechang benefiting from global supply chain restructuring [4][12] - The report highlights the importance of innovation in the small appliance sector, with AI hardware and smart home devices experiencing rapid growth [25][34] - Companies are encouraged to focus on high-end product offerings and global market expansion to mitigate the impacts of domestic competition and tariff challenges [4][50]

风险提示：宏观经济下行、人民币大幅贬值、油价大幅上涨、重大自然灾害 等。 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 27 日 量价双升，5 月行业盈利有望大幅改善 航空行业 2025 年 5 月数据跟踪 周期/交通运输 本月关注：航空 5 月客运数据量价齐升，关注 25-26 年行业基本面上行趋势及 市值弹性。 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 129 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3114.3 | 3.5 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2879.2 | 3.6 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 3.1 0.7 18.2 相对表现 0.8 1.8 4.8 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Jun/24 Oct/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 行业规模 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Xiaomi Group [5][6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group has launched a series of new products including the YU7 SUV, MIX Flip 2 smartphone, AI glasses, and various IoT devices, exceeding market expectations with significant pre-orders for the YU7 [5] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the smartphone market and the largest AIoT hardware platform globally, with a strong outlook for growth driven by its high-end product strategy and international expansion [5][6] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 519.1 billion, 706.7 billion, and 907.5 billion CNY respectively, with adjusted net profits of 45.8 billion, 67.7 billion, and 92.6 billion CNY [6] Summary by Sections Automotive - The YU7 SUV has received over 200,000 pre-orders within three minutes of launch, showcasing strong market demand [5] - The YU7 features advanced specifications including a standard range of 835 km, high-level autonomous driving capabilities, and competitive pricing compared to Tesla's Model Y [5][6] Smartphones - The MIX Flip 2 and REDMI K80 Supreme Edition smartphones were launched with significant upgrades in performance and design [5] - The MIX Flip 2 features a 4.01-inch external screen, a 5165mAh battery, and advanced folding technology, while the REDMI K80 boasts a Dimensity 9400+ processor and a large 7410mAh battery [5][6] IoT Products - Xiaomi introduced a range of IoT products including tablets, wearables, and smart home appliances, with the first AI glasses priced at 1999 CNY [5] - The new products aim to enhance user experience and integrate seamlessly into the Xiaomi ecosystem [5] Financial Projections - The report forecasts significant revenue growth with a year-on-year increase of 42% in 2025, 36% in 2026, and 28% in 2027 [6] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 35.3, 23.2, and 16.7 respectively, indicating potential for long-term value appreciation [6]

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 06 月 26 日 收入和毛利率超指引，12Hi-HBM3E 预计 FY25Q4 量产 美光 FY25Q3 跟踪报告 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件： 美光于 6 月 25 日公布 FY25Q3 财报（注：截至 5 月 31 日的 3 个月期间），营 收 93 亿美元，同比+37%/环比+15%；毛利率 39%，同比+11pcts/环比+1pct。 评论： 1、FY25Q3 收入同比高增长，单季毛利率和 EPS 超预期。 FY25Q3 收入 93 亿美元，同比+37%/环比+15%，超指引上限（88±2 亿美元）； 毛利率 39%，同比+11pcts/环比+1pct，超指引上限（36.5%±1pct）；净利率 23.4%，同比+13pcts/环比+1.3pcts；EPS 1.91 美金，超指引预期（1.61 美金）。 2、DRAM 和 NAND 位元环比持续增长，HBM 收入环比增长近 50%。 1）按产品划分：①DRAM 收入 70.7 亿美金，同比+50.7%/环比+15.5%，创单 季历史新高，位元出货量环比增长超 20%，ASP 环比下降低个位数百分比，价 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that since 2025, the construction materials industry has been underperforming due to unresolved supply-demand conflicts, with real estate downturns and limited counter-cyclical effects from infrastructure investments leading to insufficient market confidence [15][16][22]. - The report identifies two types of leading companies in the construction materials industry: those focusing on stabilizing and optimizing their core businesses with high dividend returns, and those actively expanding their capabilities through market, product, and demand boundaries [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "outbound, transformation, and upgrade" strategy for companies to enhance their value, particularly in the context of the changing competitive landscape [1][8]. Group 2 - The construction materials sector is experiencing a structural shift towards "stock competition" domestically and an "outbound strategy" internationally, indicating a need for companies to adapt their strategic choices [1][8]. - The report notes that the domestic market for construction materials is characterized by stock competition, with a focus on cash flow and recovery potential for leading companies [5][8]. - The report anticipates that the renovation of old residential areas during the 14th Five-Year Plan will create over 300 billion yuan in new market space for the construction materials industry [5][8]. Group 3 - The cement industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to enhanced industry self-discipline and a reduction in "involution" competition, supported by government policies and stable infrastructure investment [5][8]. - The report suggests that leading cement companies with strong cash flow and high dividend yields, such as Conch Cement, are well-positioned for sustained value [8][7]. - The glass fiber sector is benefiting from price increases in electronic fabrics, which are driving improvements in profitability for leading companies [5][8]. Group 4 - The report indicates that the construction materials industry is facing a weak overall performance, with the construction materials index underperforming compared to the broader market indices [16][22]. - The report highlights that the construction materials sector has seen a decline in stock prices, with specific sub-sectors like glass manufacturing experiencing significant downturns [16][22]. - The report emphasizes the need for companies to focus on cash flow management and optimize their operations to navigate the current market challenges [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, with its KTC brand ranking among the top five in the display category on JD.com, indicating significant market recognition [1][5]. - The strategic focus on innovative display products and AI integration positions the company as a typical case of "technology + consumption" convergence, resonating with new consumer experiences [1]. - The launch of AI glasses is expected to catalyze valuation growth, as the company aims to capture market share in this emerging segment [1][5]. Financial Data Summary - The total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 17.457 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 1.059 billion yuan, reflecting a 27% increase compared to the previous year [6][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 11.4% in 2024 to 14.8% by 2027 [10]. Product Performance - KTC's products, including the H27T22S-3 and M27T6S, achieved top sales in their respective categories during the 618 festival, with the former surpassing its closest competitor by 47% in sales volume [5]. - The company’s innovative products, such as the mobile smart screen and AI beauty mirror, have been recognized in various industry rankings, showcasing the effectiveness of its R&D investments [1][5]. Market Positioning - The company is strategically enhancing its overseas market presence, which is expected to be a significant growth driver due to higher profit margins [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's product structure optimization and the increasing share of overseas business in driving overall profitability [1].

Group 1: Macro Retail Trends - The retail sector and e-commerce are experiencing steady growth, with a notable increase in consumer demand driven by government subsidies for replacement purchases. In the first five months of 2025, retail sales grew by 5% year-on-year, with specific monthly growth rates of 4.6%, 5.1%, and 6.4% in Q1 and April to May respectively [14][19][22] - E-commerce continues to outpace overall retail growth, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 6.3% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, indicating a steady rise in online penetration [17][28] - Essential goods show resilience, with food and daily necessities growing by 13% and 6.2% respectively in the same period, while government-supported categories like home appliances are leading the growth in discretionary spending [19][22] Group 2: E-commerce Sector Insights - The e-commerce industry is on an upward trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.3% in online retail sales, surpassing the overall retail growth rate. Major platforms like Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo are showing strong performance, with JD benefiting from government subsidies [28][31] - Competition in the e-commerce sector is easing as platforms shift away from aggressive price wars towards optimizing their unique competitive advantages. This strategic shift is expected to enhance profitability and market stability [31][32] - Instant retail is emerging as a high-growth segment within e-commerce, with the market expected to exceed 1.7 trillion by 2030, driven by consumer demand for faster delivery options [37][46] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Services - The snack retail sector is highlighted for its efficiency and high turnover, with leading companies like Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang showing strong performance. The focus is on differentiating quality retail to meet consumer demands [4][22] - The tea beverage market is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in lower-tier cities, with brands like Guming and Mixue benefiting from increased consumer interest and delivery services [5][22] - The travel and tourism sector is recovering, with domestic travel showing a 26.4% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, indicating strong consumer demand for leisure activities [22][26]