Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and remained flat year-on-year at 0.0% due to significant pressure from food prices[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.8%, the highest in 17 months, indicating effective domestic demand policies[2] - Vegetable prices saw a significant decline due to high base effects from the previous year, while pork prices continued to drop due to weak terminal demand[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month, marking a continued decline in the mining and raw material processing industries[2] - The coal mining and oil extraction sectors were the largest contributors to the PPI decline, with mining industries showing a year-on-year drop of 14.0%[2] - The report anticipates a slight recovery in PPI in August, projecting a year-on-year rate around -3%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report suggests that while CPI may rise above 0 in August, energy prices remain a significant constraint on overall inflation recovery[2] - The ongoing weak demand in the mid and downstream sectors is expected to limit the positive impact of anti-involution policies on PPI[2] - The effectiveness of domestic policies in stimulating demand will be crucial for any significant recovery in PPI throughout the year[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the ETF fund market, summarizing the performance and capital flows of the overall ETF fund market, different popular sub - type ETF funds, and innovative theme and sub - industry ETF funds in the past week (August 4 - August 8, 2025) to provide references for investors [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Overall Performance - **Market Performance**: Most A - share - focused ETFs rose this week. Defense and military industry ETFs had the largest increase, with an average increase of 5.08% for funds above a certain scale, while pharmaceutical and biological ETFs had the deepest decline, with an average decrease of 0.91% for funds above a certain scale [2][6]. - **Capital Flow**: Funds continued to flow into Hong Kong stock ETFs significantly, with a net inflow of 12.342 billion yuan throughout the week. Conversely, the most capital flowed out of science and technology innovation/growth enterprise board - related index ETFs, with a net outflow of 3.945 billion yuan throughout the week [3][8]. 3.2 Different Popular Sub - type ETF Funds Market Performance - **Stock ETF - Broad - based Index**: Different broad - based index ETFs showed various performance in terms of capital flow, weekly increase/decrease, and performance in the past month and since the beginning of the year. For example, in the super - large - cap index, the China AMC SSE 50 ETF had a weekly net capital outflow of 2.243 billion yuan and a weekly increase of 1.18% [16]. - **Stock ETF - Industry Theme**: Different industry - themed ETFs also had different performances. For instance, in the TMT sector, the Harvest SSE STAR Market Chip ETF had a weekly net capital inflow of 406 million yuan and a weekly increase of 1.32% [22]. - **Bond ETF, QDII ETF, Commodity ETF**: Each type of ETF had its own characteristics in terms of capital flow and performance. For example, the Haitong Fortune CSI Short - term Financing Bond ETF in the bond ETF category had a weekly net capital inflow of 4.023 billion yuan and a weekly increase of 0.04% [30]. 3.3 Innovative Theme and Sub - industry ETF Funds Market Performance - **TMT Innovation Theme**: The animation and gaming index had a weekly increase of 6.41% and an increase of 35.09% since the beginning of the year. The China AMC Gaming ETF, representing this index, had a weekly increase of 6.25% [34]. - **Other Themes**: Other themes such as consumer sub - industries, pharmaceutical sub - industries, new energy themes, central and state - owned enterprise themes, and stable - growth themes also had their respective performance data in terms of weekly increase/decrease and performance since the beginning of the year [35][36][37].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods DTW Timing Model - **Model Name**: DTW Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the principle of similarity and the DTW algorithm, focusing on price and volume timing[1][5][14] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model examines the similarity between current index trends and historical trends, selecting several historical segments with high similarity as references[25] - It calculates the weighted average future price change and weighted standard deviation of the selected historical segments (weights are the inverse of the distance)[25] - Based on the average future price change and standard deviation, trading signals are generated[25] - The model uses the DTW distance algorithm instead of the Euclidean distance for similarity measurement, as DTW distance can better handle time series mismatches[27] - Improved DTW algorithms such as Sakoe-Chiba and Itakura Parallelogram are introduced to overcome the "over-bending" issue in traditional DTW algorithms[29][30][35] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown stable excess returns in general market conditions, although it faced some drawdowns during periods of sudden macroeconomic policy changes[16] Foreign Capital Timing Model - **Model Name**: Foreign Capital Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the divergence between foreign and domestic related assets[1][14] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses two foreign-listed assets related to A-shares: FTSE China A50 Index Futures (Singapore market) and Southern A50 ETF (Hong Kong market)[34] - It constructs two indicators from FTSE China A50 Index Futures: premium and price divergence, forming the FTSE China A50 Index Futures timing signal[34] - It constructs a price divergence indicator from Southern A50 ETF, forming the Southern A50 ETF timing signal[34] - The timing signals from both assets are combined to form the foreign capital timing signal[34] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown good performance with high annualized returns and low maximum drawdowns[20][23] Model Backtest Results DTW Timing Model - **Absolute Return**: 25.79% since November 2022[5][16] - **Excess Return**: 16.83% relative to CSI 300[5][16] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 21.32%[5][16] - **Absolute Return (2024)**: 23.98% on CSI 300[18] - **Excess Return (2024)**: 2.76%[18] - **Maximum Drawdown (2024)**: 21.36%[18] - **Win Rate (2024)**: 53.85%[18] - **Profit-Loss Ratio (2024)**: 2.93[18] Foreign Capital Timing Model - **Absolute Return (2024)**: 29.11% for long strategy[5][23] - **Maximum Drawdown (2024)**: 8.32% for long strategy[5][23] - **Annualized Return (2014-2024)**: 18.96% for long-short strategy, 14.19% for long strategy[20] - **Maximum Drawdown (2014-2024)**: 25.69% for long-short strategy, 17.27% for long strategy[20] - **Daily Win Rate (2014-2024)**: Nearly 55%[20] - **Profit-Loss Ratio (2014-2024)**: Both exceed 2.5[20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the bond market situation through multiple indicators, showing that last week the bond market sentiment recovered slightly, while the trading activity in the secondary market decreased. The bond - fund issuance increased significantly, and there were changes in the bond - buying behavior of different institutions. The relative valuation of bonds also showed certain fluctuations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Sentiment - The bond market sentiment index last week was 114.8, up 0.1 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 50.1%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Institutional Duration - Last Friday, the fund duration was 2.21 years, up 0.01 years from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 3.12 years, up 0.02 years; the insurance duration was 6.93 years, down 0.01 years [1]. 3.3 Leverage Ratio - Last week, the pledged repurchase balance was 11.9 trillion yuan, up 0.5 trillion yuan from the previous value; the large - bank net lending balance was 5.0 trillion yuan, up 1.0 trillion yuan; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.8%, up 0.2 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Secondary Market Transactions - Last week, in terms of turnover rate, the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 2.3%, down 1.0 percentage point; the 10Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 0.7%, down 0.2 percentage points; the 10Y China Development Bank bond turnover rate was 28.7%, down 0.5 percentage points; the ultra - long - term credit bond turnover rate was 0.38%, down 0.06 percentage points [1]. 3.5 Institutional Allocation Power - Last week, the newly issued bond - fund shares were 25.1 billion yuan, up 22 billion yuan from the previous value. The stock market risk premium was 1.17%, up 0.02 percentage points; the US dollar index was 98.4, down 0.9. The rural commercial bank bond - allocation index was - 33.3%, up 19.3 percentage points; the insurance bond - allocation index was 50.1%, down 21.4 percentage points; the money - market fund bond - allocation index was 30.1%, down 16.1 percentage points; the insurance's allocation index for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was - 10.2%, down 18.8 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Primary Market Subscription - Last week, the full - field multiple of Treasury bonds decreased by 1.2 times to 3.1 times, the full - field multiple of local government bonds decreased by 0.4 times to 23.3 times, and the full - field multiple of China Development Bank bonds was 3.5 times, remaining the same as the previous value [2]. 3.7 Relative Valuation - Last week, the spread between 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds widened by 2.0bp to 8.3bp, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds widened by 1.4bp to 25.7bp, the spread between old and new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds narrowed by 0.9bp to 1.2bp, and the spread between 10 - year local government bonds and Treasury bonds widened by 2.1bp to 12.5bp [2].

Domestic Policy Focus: Beijing Real Estate Policy Relaxation - On August 8, Beijing issued a notice to further optimize and adjust real estate policies, leading to a relaxation of restrictions. Specifically, the number of properties that can be purchased outside the Fifth Ring Road has been uncapped, and significant upgrades to the housing provident fund policies have been made [5][9][10] - The adjustments to the housing provident fund include changes in the recognition standards for housing purchases, an increase in the maximum loan amount for second homes from 6 million yuan to 10 million yuan, and a unified minimum down payment ratio of 30% regardless of location [10][11] - The relaxation of policies in Beijing may accelerate similar adjustments in other first-tier cities, indicating a broader trend in real estate policy easing across major urban areas [5][8] Financial Support for New Industrialization - On August 5, multiple departments, including the central bank and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, jointly issued guidelines to support new industrialization, with a focus on mid-term planning goals aimed at establishing a mature financial support system for manufacturing by 2027 [11][12] - Key industries highlighted for support include semiconductors, machinery, computers, and medical devices, with various financial tools such as bank loans, corporate bonds, and capital market financing being utilized to support these sectors [11][12][13] - The policy emphasizes the importance of financing for emerging industries, including new-generation information technology and smart connected vehicles, which are expected to benefit from increased access to capital markets [12][13] Consumer Loan Interest Subsidy Policy - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, has initiated a consumer loan interest subsidy policy aimed at reducing credit costs for residents and enhancing market vitality. This policy is expected to be implemented based on successful models from regions like Sichuan and Chongqing, with a potential interest subsidy rate of around 1.5% [14][15] - The subsidy may include limits on the maximum amount per application and restrictions on the number of applications per individual, ensuring targeted support for consumer spending [14][15] Overseas Policy Focus: Tariff Updates - Recent developments in tariffs include the U.S. imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian purchases of Russian oil, raising India's total import tariffs to 50%, effective August 27 [20][21] - Japan has received a reduction in effective tariff rates on most goods, with the U.S. modifying its administrative order to set a maximum tariff rate of 15% on Japanese products, which will not be added to existing tariffs [20][21] - In the semiconductor sector, President Trump has threatened a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors and chips, excluding those produced in the U.S., while drug imports could face tariffs as high as 250% in the future [21][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the quantitative fund market, summarizing the performance of major indices and quantitative funds in the past week, the overall performance and distribution of different types of public - offering quantitative funds, and the top - performing quantitative funds in the week from August 4th to August 8th, 2025, for investors' reference. During this period, the A - share market rose, and quantitative funds showed good performance [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Performance of Major Indices and Quantitative Funds in the Past Week - A - shares continued to rise, with the weekly returns of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 being 2.51%, 1.78%, and 1.23% respectively [3][6]. - Quantitative funds performed well. Active quantitative funds rose 1.88%, market - neutral funds rose 0.29%, and all types of index - enhanced funds recorded positive returns. In terms of excess returns, CSI 300 index - enhanced, CSI 500 index - enhanced, and other index - enhanced funds achieved positive excess returns of 0.20%, 0.04%, and 0.07% respectively, while CSI 1000 index - enhanced funds underperformed the index [4][9]. II. Performance of Different Types of Public - Offering Quantitative Funds - **CSI 300 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The weekly return was 1.44%, the excess return was 0.20%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.15%, and the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.13% [14]. - **CSI 500 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The weekly return was 1.81%, the excess return was 0.04%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.37%, and the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.29% [14]. - **CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The weekly return was 2.36%, the excess return was - 0.15%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.39%, and the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.47% [15]. - **Other Index - Enhanced Funds**: The weekly return was 1.49%, the excess return was 0.07%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.59%, and the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.26% [15]. - **Active Quantitative Funds**: The weekly return was 1.88%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.37%, and the return dispersion was 1.09% [16]. - **Market - Neutral Funds**: The weekly return was 0.29%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.11%, and the return dispersion was 0.45% [16]. III. Performance Distribution of Different Types of Public - Offering Quantitative Funds The report presents the performance trends of different types of public - offering quantitative funds in the past six months, as well as the performance distribution in the past week and the past year. Index - enhanced funds show the performance of excess returns [17]. IV. Top - Performing Public - Offering Quantitative Funds - **CSI 300 Index - Enhanced**: Funds such as Anxin Quantitative Selection CSI 300 Index Enhancement and Zhongou CSI 300 Quantitative Index Enhancement performed well in the past week [30]. - **CSI 500 Index - Enhanced**: Funds like Guotai CSI 500 Index Enhancement and Huian CSI 500 Enhancement had good performance [31]. - **CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced**: Funds including Guolianan CSI 1000 Index Enhancement and Penghua CSI 1000 Enhanced Strategy ETF showed good results [32]. - **Other Index - Enhanced**: Funds such as Great Wall GEM Index Enhancement and Fuguocheng GEM Enhanced Strategy ETF performed well [33]. - **Active Quantitative**: Funds like Changxin National Defense and Military Industry and Huian Quantitative Pioneer had high returns [34]. - **Market - Neutral**: Funds such as Zhongyou Absolute Return Strategy and Southern Absolute Return Strategy performed well [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $566.1 million for Q2 2025, reflecting an 18.3% year-over-year increase and a 4.6% quarter-over-quarter increase, aligning with guidance [30][31]. - Gross margin for Q2 2025 was 10.9%, exceeding previous guidance of 7-9%, driven by improved capacity utilization and average selling price (ASP) increases [30][31]. - The company anticipates Q3 2025 revenue guidance of $620-640 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.3%, primarily supported by growth in emerging sectors such as AI and automotive [3][38]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q2 2025 revenue reached $566.1 million, with a gross margin of 10.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $8 million, marking a 19.2% year-over-year increase [30][31][32]. - The company achieved an overall capacity utilization rate of 108.3%, up 5.6 percentage points from the previous quarter [30]. Product Performance - Revenue from embedded non-volatile memory platforms was $140 million, up 3% year-over-year and 8.5% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - Power device revenue was $166.7 million, reflecting a 9.4% year-over-year increase, driven by demand for super junction MOSFETs [2][36]. - Significant growth was observed in analog and power management ICs, with revenue of $161.2 million, up 59.3% year-over-year [2][36]. Capacity and Future Outlook - The new production line in Wuxi is expected to reach full capacity by mid-2026, focusing on high-value-added products [4][50]. - The company plans to maintain a focus on high-margin products such as PMICs and super junction MOSFETs in future capacity expansions [4][50]. Market Dynamics - The company reported that the Chinese market contributed $469.7 million, accounting for 83% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 21.8% [33]. - North American revenue was $53 million, up 13.2% year-over-year, driven by demand for integrated circuit products [33]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competencies in product technology, process, and supply chain management to improve operational efficiency [30]. - The strategy includes collaboration with domestic and international strategic customers to expand its global customer base [30].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to the construction, testing, or evaluation of quantitative models or factors [1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Changshu Bank [3] Core Views - The bank's ability to generate internal capital has improved, leading to timely mid-term dividend distribution [7] - The bank's net interest margin for H1 2025 is 2.58%, showing a slight decrease compared to previous quarters, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities has decreased, indicating effective cost control [2][7] - Non-interest income has seen significant growth, with a 637.77% increase in net fee and commission income for H1 2025 [2][7] - The bank is strategically reducing growth in risk-weighted assets to maintain asset quality amid weak demand in the small and micro-enterprise sector [2][7] Summary by Sections Performance - For H1 2025, the bank reported a revenue growth of 10.10%, PPOP growth of 12.10%, and net profit growth of 13.51% compared to the same period last year [1][12] - The bank's total assets reached 401.23 billion, with total loans at 251.47 billion and total deposits showing a steady increase [12] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income maintained a high growth rate of 57.26% in H1 2025, driven by a substantial increase in fee and commission income [2][13] Interest Margin and Asset-Liability Management - The bank's net interest margin has slightly decreased, but the cost of interest-bearing liabilities has improved, indicating effective management of funding costs [2][8] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76% as of Q2 2025, with a coverage ratio of 489.53% [2][12] - The bank's strategy focuses on maintaining high asset quality while managing the risks associated with small loans [2][7] Capital and Shareholder Information - The bank's total market capitalization is 26.1 billion, with a current share price of 7.87 yuan and a return on equity (ROE) of 13.5% [3][12] - The bank has a strong capital adequacy ratio, ensuring it can support future growth while maintaining stability [12][29]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 08 日 中国移动（600941.SH） 上半年业绩高质量增长，股东回报能力持续提升 TMT 及中小盘/通信 2024 年 8 月 8 日下午，中国移动发布《2025 年半年度报告》，25H1 公司实现 营业收入 5438 亿元，其中通服收入 4670 亿元，同比增长 0.7%，实现归母净 利润 842 亿元，同比增长 5.0%，EBITDA 1860 亿元，同比增长 2.0%，盈利能 力保持国际一流运营商领先水平。 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -3 2 7 相对表现 -6 -5 -16 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 Aug/24 Dec/24 Mar/25 Jul/25 (%) 中国移动 沪深300 相关报告 1、《中国移动（600941）—业绩稳增 彰显经营韧性，"由云向智"构筑全栈 AI 服务能力》2025-04-23 2、《中国移动（600941）—24Q4 增 长超预期，自由现金流创造能力持续 夯实》2025-03-21 3、《中国移动（600941）—Q3 通服 收入增速企稳回升，"AI+"与新质 ...