投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡上涨，其中 IM 与 IC 涨幅较大。沪深京三市成交额 31523 亿元，较 上日放量 3261 亿元。股市成交金额大幅放量，融资买入金额保持高位，说明目前投资者风险偏好较 为积极乐观。由于股指已经突破前期的震荡区间上沿，后续股指大概率保持相对强势。政策面利好预 期以及资金净流入股市趋势共同构成股指上行的主要逻辑。2026 年政策面逐渐进入落实落细政策利 好的阶段，政策利好预期持续发酵；自 12 月中旬以来，融资资金持续净流入股市，融资余额持续上 升，杠杆资金的持续入市提振了市场情绪，考虑到存量到期存单的资产再配置需求，后续或将带动更 多资金配置权益资产。总的来说，预计短期内股指震荡偏强运行。 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品 ...

期货研究报告 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2025-12-15 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 24888 | 25660 | 23288 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M0:同比 | % | 10.6 | 11.7 | 12.7 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.0 | -0.7 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M2:同比 | % ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for January 12, 2026, presenting data on basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for various futures products across multiple sectors [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of power coal from January 5 to January 9, 2026. The inter - month spreads were all 0, and the basis values ranged from - 116.4 to - 102.4 yuan/ton [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It provides basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from January 5 to January 9, 2026, along with other related data such as spreads and price ratios [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are presented. For example, the rubber basis ranged from - 430 to - 240 yuan/ton [8] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for rubber, methanol, etc., are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 spread of LLDPE was 242 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are shown. The LLDPE - PVC spread on January 9 was 1779 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are provided. The rebar basis on January 9 was 136.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) for rebar, iron ore, etc., are presented. The 9(10) - 1 spread of rebar was 89.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads like rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are given. The rebar/iron ore ratio on January 9 was 3.86 [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are provided. For example, the copper basis on January 9 was - 440 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, etc., on January 9, 2026, are presented. The LME spread of copper was 41.94 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, etc., from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are shown. The soybean meal basis on January 9 was 364 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc., are given. The 5 - 1 spread of soybeans No.1 was 47 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, etc., from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are presented. The soybeans No.1/corn ratio on January 9 was 1.94 [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are provided. The CSI 300 basis on January 9 was 15.12 [49] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., are given. The next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 11.4 [49]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2026 年 1 月 9 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多因素提振 能化震荡偏强 核心观点 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 16030 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 0.96%至 16030 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度升阔至 25 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价摆脱三角形区间震荡， 维持震荡偏强格局。 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 26 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has weakened, with a significant increase in inventory. The weekly output of rebar increased by 2820 tons week - on - week, and the supply continued to rise with room for further growth. The demand continued to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 25480 tons week - on - week. Although high - frequency transactions rebounded due to holiday factors, both remained at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry was weak, and the weak demand pattern remained unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. The rebar price rebounded from a low level due to the warm sentiment in commodities, but with increasing supply and weak demand, fundamental contradictions began to accumulate. The steel price in the off - season continued to be under pressure, and the cost support was a relative positive factor. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [12]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 191040 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2820 tons, and an increase of 2820 tons compared to the end of last month. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points, and an increase of 0.78 percentage points compared to the end of last month. Compared with the same period (lunar calendar), the output decreased by 27690 tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.09 percentage points [3]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 174960 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25480 tons, and a decrease of 25480 tons compared to the end of last month. The weekly average value of Steel Union building material transactions was 9810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 190 tons, and an increase of 190 tons compared to the end of last month. Compared with the same period (lunar calendar), the apparent demand decreased by 63720 tons, and the weekly average value of transactions decreased by 1040 tons [3]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 438110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16080 tons, and an increase of 16080 tons compared to the end of last month. The in - plant inventory was 147930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8560 tons, and an increase of 8560 tons compared to the end of last month. The social inventory was 290180 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7520 tons, and an increase of 7520 tons compared to the end of last month. Compared with the same period (lunar calendar), the total inventory increased by 35090 tons, the in - plant inventory increased by 27650 tons, and the social inventory increased by 7440 tons [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakly operating, with inventory continuously rising. Steel mills are resuming production, and the terminal consumption of ore is rising from a low level. However, the overall increase is not significant, and the improvement space of ore demand is limited due to the poor profit situation of steel mills and the inability of the off - season steel market to support a large - scale increase in production. Meanwhile, port arrivals are rising, and miner shipments are falling from a high level. The overall supply pressure remains. In conclusion, the iron ore fundamentals are still weak, and the ore price is under pressure. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile operation under the game of long and short factors, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 16,275.26, with a week - on - week increase of 304.37 and a year - on - year increase of 1,300.78 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,989.59, with a week - on - week increase of 43.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 582.11 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1] Supply - Domestic 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,756.40, with a week - on - week increase of 155.00 and a year - on - year increase of 488.00 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). Global iron ore shipments are 3,213.70, with a week - on - week decrease of 463.42 and a year - on - year increase of 151.90 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 229.50, with a week - on - week increase of 2.07 and a year - on - year increase of 0.09 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 323.27, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.94 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 283.28, with a week - on - week increase of 2.61 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.30 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 99.50, with a week - on - week increase of 18.82 and a year - on - year decrease of 12.22 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has changed little. The supply pressure has not been alleviated and continues to put pressure on steel prices. The demand has weakened, but the high - level cold - rolled production provides some support. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile trend [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 305.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.00 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points. The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 88.84 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.47 tons [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 308.34 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 tons. The daily high - frequency trading volume is at a low level. Although the high - level cold - rolled production supports the demand, the industrial contradictions are accumulating, and the export performance is average, so there are concerns about demand [2][3] Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 368.13 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.83 tons. The in - plant inventory is 77.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.00 tons. The social inventory is 290.81 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures oscillated with a slight decline. The inflation data in December showed that CPI rose moderately and PPI's decline narrowed, indicating positive repair of price indices under the continuous promotion of consumption - boosting and anti - involution policies. Considering the strong resilience of the December manufacturing PMI data, the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts continued to decline, putting pressure on Treasury bond futures prices. However, as the prices of Treasury bond cash bonds fell, the implied interest rate cut expectations in the Treasury bond yields faded, and the anchoring effect of policy interest rates emerged, limiting the downside space of Treasury bond futures. In the medium - to - long term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still requires a relatively loose monetary and credit environment on the policy side, so there is still support for Treasury bond futures. Overall, it is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On January 9, the People's Bank of China conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered manner, with an operating rate of 1.4%. Since there were no 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities on this day, a net investment of 34 billion yuan was achieved. - On January 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding to a new high since March 2023; month - on - month, it turned from a decline to an increase, rising 0.2%. The national industrial producer price decreased 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month; month - on - month, it rose 0.2%, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month [5] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the trends of TL2603, T2603, TF2603, TS2603, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations, with data sources from iFinD and the Baocheng Futures Research Institute [6][8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Opened lower and then rebounded during the day, with increased positions and a recovery that almost offset the previous night's decline. Short - term, the game between long and short positions intensified, and the profit - taking intention of funds rose. The weak industrial reality also pressured the futures price. The macro atmosphere dominated the price trend, and with the warming of the atmosphere during the day, commodities generally rebounded. It is advisable to continuously monitor the support of the 10 - day moving average in the short term [6]. - **沪铝**: Significantly increased positions and rose, approaching the previous high. Since Wednesday, the macro atmosphere cooled and non - ferrous metals generally declined, but the aluminum price was relatively strong. This is because its macro attribute is relatively weaker than copper, and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper has been fermenting since December, with strong industrial expectations. However, the industrial side is still in a weak reality stage, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased significantly. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 2021 high. It is necessary to continuously monitor the game between long and short positions [7]. - **沪镍**: Declined significantly with increased positions yesterday and rebounded after hitting the bottom today. Since the end of December, the nickel price has rebounded significantly, so the recent correction has also been relatively large. At present, the industry is still in a situation of over - supply, which puts pressure on the futures price, but news from Indonesia has reversed the industry's expectations. Technically, it is necessary to continuously monitor the game between long and short positions at the 140,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: SMM predicts that the operating rate of the copper strip industry will continue to decline to 67.2% in January. In January, the copper price continued to hit new highs, and the terminal market's carrying capacity was on the verge of the limit. Some downstream enterprises even planned to start the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the industry as a whole showed a "lying flat" state. The production and operation pressure of copper strip enterprises has increased significantly. The high - level operation of the copper price has continuously suppressed the release of new orders, and the order volume at the beginning of the month has dropped significantly. In addition, the adjustment of the recycled copper - related policy has led to double dilemmas of difficult raw material procurement and a significant increase in costs for tin - phosphorus bronze strip enterprises, and they have started to reduce production. Some enterprises plan to carry out year - end equipment overhauls, which also have an impact on the actual output in January. In December 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was 68.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09 percentage points. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 76.95%, that of medium - sized enterprises was 54.21%, and that of small enterprises was 59.02% [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 8th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 718,000 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of 80,000 tons before the New Year's Day [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, and copper month - spread [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report offers charts on nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

姓名：涂伟华 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 核心观点 焦炭：截至 1 月 9 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合 计 110.45 万吨，周环比增 0.9 万吨；下游 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 229.5 万吨，周环比增 2.07 万吨。本周，下游钢厂逐渐复产，但复产速 度偏缓，焦炭基本面改善幅度有限，相对利好仍在于上游焦煤的供应端强 预期。综上，焦炭自身基本面支撑仍较为乏力，不过进入新一年度后，经 济政策预期、"反内卷"政策预期，以及下游冬储补库预期的向上驱动渐 显，带动焦炭期货低位反弹。 焦煤：截至 1 月 9 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 73.4 万 吨，周环比增 4.4 万吨，较去年同期产量偏低 6.9 万吨。需求方面，截至 1 月 9 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 110.45 万吨，周环比增 0.9 万吨。整体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增 格局，短期基本面难言明显改善，但经济政策预期、"反内卷"政策预 期、下游冬储补库预 ...