Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank-H (3968 HK) with a target price of HK$48.90, representing a potential upside of 29% from the current price of HK$38.00 [1][5]. Core Views - The bank's 3Q24 earnings met expectations, benefiting from effective cost control that offset declines in interest and commission income. The adjusted net profit for 3Q24 was RMB 38.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [6][10]. - Revenue growth continues to slow, with a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, primarily due to a 14 basis point decrease in net interest margin, which offset a 4.7% increase in loans [6][12]. - The bank's asset quality showed relative improvement, with a non-performing loan ratio stable at 0.94% and a high coverage ratio of 432.2% [7][14]. - The outlook for 4Q24 and 2025 suggests a continued decline in net interest margin, although the pace of decline is expected to slow. Credit demand is anticipated to recover in 2025 [8][12]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - In 3Q24, adjusted net profit was RMB 38.4 billion, with a year-to-date adjusted net profit of RMB 111.2 billion, flat year-on-year [6][10]. - The bank's total revenue for 3Q24 was RMB 79.1 billion, down 2.6% year-on-year, driven by a decrease in net interest income and commission income [13]. Financial Metrics - The bank's cost-to-income ratio improved to 32.6%, down from 34.3% in 2Q24, indicating better cost management [7][14]. - The core Tier 1 capital ratio increased by 87 basis points to 14.73%, reflecting strengthened capital levels [7][14]. Future Outlook - The bank expects a decline in net interest margin in 4Q24, but the decrease is projected to be less severe than in 2024. Loan growth is expected to exceed 2024 levels, particularly in retail loans [8][12]. - The bank's ability to generate positive growth in commission income in 2025 will depend on regulatory decisions regarding fee reductions [8][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 12.98 per share [4]. Core Views - The company has achieved an alumina self-sufficiency rate of 156%, benefiting from high alumina prices [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao New Materials Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of CNY 110.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit of CNY 15.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 141.4% [1]. - The increase in revenue and profit is attributed to rising alumina prices and decreasing costs of coal and prebaked anodes [1]. - The average domestic alumina price in Q3 was CNY 3,940.8 per ton, an increase of 8.1% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company is expanding its alumina production capacity, with a total capacity of 19.5 million tons, ensuring stable raw material supply and cost advantages [1]. - The upcoming inclusion of electrolytic aluminum in the national carbon market may lead to increased production costs for coal-fired aluminum, potentially benefiting companies using hydropower [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be CNY 19.55 billion, CNY 21.79 billion, and CNY 22.53 billion respectively, reflecting significant upward adjustments of 43.1%, 50.8%, and 51.3% [2]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.8, 5.2, and 5.0 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [2]. Revenue and Profit Growth - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 149.55 billion, with a growth rate of 11.92% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 70.61% compared to the previous year [3]. Production Capacity - The company has a domestic alumina production capacity of 17.5 million tons and an additional 2 million tons in Indonesia, totaling 19.5 million tons [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approximately 6.46 million tons, with aluminum alloy processing output of about 493,000 tons [1]. Market Position - The company holds a leading position in the domestic alumina industry, benefiting from high alumina prices and a robust supply chain [2][1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Heart and Heart Fertilizer with a target price of HKD 6.5, indicating a potential upside of 55% from the current price of HKD 4.2 [4][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 17.42 billion for the first three quarters, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 80.7% year-on-year to RMB 1.53 billion, aligning with expectations [2][3]. - The strong profit growth is attributed to a decrease in raw material prices and stable production operations, leading to a 5% increase in gross profit [2]. - The company sold 100% equity in Tianxin Coal Industry, generating an investment income of RMB 790 million, with a total of RMB 800 million received by the end of the third quarter [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Urea revenue accounted for RMB 5.62 billion, representing 32% of total revenue, with a sales volume of 2.768 million tons, up 33% year-on-year, despite a 14% decline in average selling price to RMB 2029 per ton [3]. - Compound fertilizer revenue was RMB 4.65 billion, making up 27% of total revenue, with stable sales volume and a gross margin increase of 5 percentage points due to higher sales of efficient fertilizers [3]. - Methanol revenue reached RMB 1.89 billion, contributing 11% to total revenue, with a 2% increase in average selling price and a 17% rise in sales volume [3]. - The report anticipates a seasonal fluctuation in demand for compound fertilizers and a gradual stabilization of fertilizer prices due to supply constraints and recovering demand [3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 30% for urea, 17% for compound fertilizers, and 8% for methanol, with notable improvements in profitability across various segments [3]. - The report projects a revenue growth rate of 4.1% for FY2024, with net profit expected to increase significantly by 73.4% [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 total revenue of $3.07 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, with core operating profit rising by 18% to $369 million [2]. - The company plans to increase the proportion of franchise stores, aiming for 40-50% for KFC and 20-30% for Pizza Hut in the coming years [2]. - KFC's same-store sales decline has narrowed, with a 6% increase in system sales at constant exchange rates [2]. - Pizza Hut's same-store sales also showed improvement, with a 2% increase in system sales at constant exchange rates [2]. - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns to $4.5 billion from 2024 to 2026, a 50% increase from previous plans [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue was $3.07 billion, with a 5% increase year-over-year, and core operating profit reached $369 million, an 18% increase [2]. - KFC's same-store sales decreased by 2%, while system sales increased by 6% at constant exchange rates [2]. - Pizza Hut's same-store sales decreased by 6%, with system sales increasing by 2% at constant exchange rates [2]. - The company reported a net increase of 438 stores in Q3, with 145 of those being franchise stores, representing 33% of the total [2]. - The company has a strong cash flow with $3.15 billion in net cash as of the end of Q3 [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is $920 million, $1.01 billion, and $1.09 billion for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, representing year-over-year growth rates of 10.8%, 10.4%, and 7.5% [2]. - The expected P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 18.9, 17.5, and 16.2 respectively [2].

近一月换手（%） 0.99 2024 年 11 月 04 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 《理想汽车-W（02015）2024Q2 财报点评：2024Q2 业绩环比增长，智驾持续加速（增持）*乘用车*戴 畅》——2024-09-02 2024Q3 交付量创历史新高。2024Q3，理想汽车交付 152,831 辆， 同/环比+45.4%/+40.8%。车辆销售收入 413.2 亿元，同/环比 +22.9%/+36.3%，车辆销售收入同比和环比的增加主要由于车辆交 付量增加，但部分被主要因不同产品组合导致的平均售价降低所抵 销。 《理想汽车-W（02015）2024Q1 点评报告：2024Q1 销量业绩环比承压，新品上市静待反弹（增持）* 乘用车*戴畅》——2024-05-25 《理想汽车-W（02015）2023 年三季报点评报告： 盈利同环比增长，交付量再创新高（买入）*乘用 车*薛玉虎》——2023-11-12 《理想汽车-W（02015）点评报告：销量稳步提升， 双能战略全面发力（买入） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 5.18 [3][5][14] Core Views - The company anticipates a significant decline in profit for the first three quarters of 2024, projecting a year-on-year decrease of 16% to approximately RMB 3.8 billion due to a substantial drop in revenue from its main pharmaceutical business [1][2] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a worsening sales performance in the oncology segment, particularly for its key products, which have been adversely affected by centralized procurement policies [1][2] - The report indicates that the core products in the neurological and cardiovascular segments are also underperforming, with a notable decrease in revenue growth for the second half of the year [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects total revenue for 2024 to be approximately RMB 29.4 billion, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [4] - Shareholder net profit is projected to decline to RMB 4.89 billion in 2024, down from RMB 5.87 billion in 2023, indicating a significant drop in profitability [4][8] - The report outlines a downward revision of revenue forecasts for the oncology segment by 16%-25% for FY24-26, with expected revenues of RMB 4.9 billion, RMB 5.5 billion, and RMB 6.4 billion respectively [2] Valuation Metrics - The adjusted DCF model suggests a target price of HKD 5.18 per share, with a current market price of HKD 5.27, indicating limited upside potential [3][5] - The report provides a detailed financial summary, including projected earnings per share of RMB 0.41 for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 11.7 [4][8] Market Context - The report highlights the competitive pressures in the oncology market due to price reductions from centralized procurement, which have not led to a significant increase in sales volume for the affected products [2] - The company faces challenges in rapidly recovering sales in the neurological and cardiovascular segments, with established products showing limited growth potential in the current market environment [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's overall performance in H1 2024 met expectations, with improved profitability [1] - Despite a slight decline in revenue, the company's profit optimization is promising [1] - The company is expected to see continuous growth in business scale and profitability due to asset integration and refined management [3] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was RMB 49.76 billion, a decrease of 2.7% YoY, while net profit increased by 9.0% to RMB 4.34 billion [4] - Hospital business revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 46.00 billion, a slight decrease of 3.0% YoY, with outpatient revenue increasing by 1.7% and inpatient revenue decreasing by 6.1% [4] - Other business revenue increased by 1.8% to RMB 3.76 billion [4] Operational Highlights - The company managed 127 medical institutions across 10 provinces in China, including 13 tertiary hospitals and 23 secondary hospitals [4] - In H1 2024, outpatient visits and inpatient admissions at self-owned hospitals increased by 3.5% and 3.0% YoY, reaching 5.05 million and 280,000 respectively [1] - Average revenue per outpatient visit and inpatient admission decreased by 2.0% and 8.8% respectively, influenced by a two-year gap in medical insurance settlements [1] Profitability and Cost Efficiency - The gross profit margin for the hospital business in H1 2024 was 20.1%, with a gross profit of RMB 9.23 billion [2] - Financial expenses decreased by 34.8% to RMB 39.84 million due to the replacement of foreign loans with RMB loans, resulting in lower interest rates [2] - Income tax decreased by 16.3% to RMB 116 million, primarily due to a reduction in taxable income within China [2] Future Projections - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 105.20 billion, RMB 110.84 billion, and RMB 117.46 billion, with YoY growth rates of 4.08%, 5.37%, and 5.97% respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 7.44 billion, RMB 7.82 billion, and RMB 8.17 billion for 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of 188.90%, 5.02%, and 4.50% respectively [3] Market Position - The company is a leading comprehensive medical group under the central state-owned enterprise, with significant growth potential in the healthcare sector [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a delivery of 153,000 vehicles in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.4%. The revenue reached 42.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, with a net profit of 2.82 billion yuan and a GAAP net profit of 3.85 billion yuan. The company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%, 39.4%, and 36.3% respectively [2][7][8]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a vehicle delivery of 153,000 units, leading to a sales revenue of 41.32 billion yuan, which is a 22.9% increase year-on-year. The overall revenue for the quarter was 42.87 billion yuan, marking a 23.6% increase year-on-year. The company anticipates Q4 deliveries to be between 160,000 and 170,000 units, with expected revenue of 43.2 to 45.9 billion yuan [7][8]. - The automotive sales gross margin for Q3 2024 was 20.9%, with an overall gross margin of 21.5%, primarily driven by the scale effect of the Li L6 model. R&D and SG&A expenses were 2.59 billion and 3.36 billion yuan respectively, with a decrease in expense ratios [7][8]. Future Projections - The company forecasts its revenue for 2024-2026 to be 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%, 39.4%, and 36.3%. The net profit is projected to be 8.53 billion, 14.24 billion, and 23.72 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -27.1%, 67.0%, and 66.6% respectively. The EPS is expected to be 4.02, 6.71, and 11.18 yuan per share, with a 3-year CAGR of 40.6% [2][8]. Ecosystem Development - The company is accelerating its ecosystem development, with 479 retail centers and 436 after-sales service centers established across 221 cities as of September 30, 2024. Additionally, it has deployed 894 charging stations and 4,286 charging piles nationwide [7]. Product and Technology Advancements - The company is enhancing its product capabilities and accelerating its smart electric strategy, with the OTA 6.4 version released in October, optimizing user experience through improved smart driving solutions [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto Inc. (02015.HK) [1] Core Insights - Li Auto's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 42.87 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 67.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.6% [2][3] - The vehicle sales revenue was RMB 41.32 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 173.48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.3% [2] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for Q3 was RMB 2.81 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 155.1% [2] - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 21.5%, with a notable performance in the automotive sales gross margin at 20.9% [3] - The report highlights a significant improvement in operational efficiency, with a reduction in R&D and SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 2024 total revenue was RMB 42.87 billion, with vehicle sales contributing RMB 41.32 billion [2] - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.81 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 3.85 billion [2] - The company delivered 153,000 vehicles in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 45.4% [3] Margin Analysis - The overall gross margin was 21.5%, with automotive sales gross margin at 20.9% [3] - The report attributes the strong margin performance to controlled discounts and significant scale effects from increased sales volume [3] Expense Management - R&D expenses for Q3 were RMB 2.6 billion, and SG&A expenses were RMB 3.4 billion, showing improvements in expense ratios [3] - The report notes a strategic approach to managing expenses, including a slight reduction in R&D costs due to decreased design and development expenses [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024 has been adjusted upwards to RMB 7.8 billion, while estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards to RMB 10.3 billion and RMB 15.3 billion, respectively [4] - The report anticipates a P/E ratio of 24 for 2024, 18 for 2025, and 12 for 2026 [4]

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Huarong Gas with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 37.05, based on a 15x PE multiple for 2024 [2] - The target price is derived from a combination of relative and absolute valuation methods, including PE, PB, and DDM models [11][14][16] Core Investment Thesis - Huarong Gas is expected to see steady profit growth driven by optimized business structure, improved operating cash flow, and reduced capital expenditures [1][7] - The company's free cash flow is improving, and its dividend per share (DPS) is entering an upward trajectory, enhancing its dividend value [1][2][7] - Key catalysts include margin improvement, dividend increases, and declining market interest rates [2][7] Business Segments and Growth Drivers Retail Gas Sales - Retail gas sales volume is expected to grow steadily, supported by policies like "coal-to-gas" and "bottle-to-pipeline" conversions [2][7][36] - The company's gas margin is expected to recover due to price adjustments and cost reductions, with a projected margin of RMB 0.53/0.55/0.56 per cubic meter for 2024-2026 [8][9] - Huarong Gas benefits from a higher proportion of residential gas sales, which allows it to capture more price adjustment benefits [7][42] Connection Business - Despite a slowdown in new connections due to the real estate downturn, the company still has room for growth, with an estimated 298/268/241 thousand new residential connections for 2024-2026 [8][54] - The company's contract liabilities remain high, providing a buffer for future connection business [7][55] Comprehensive Services and Energy Business - The comprehensive services business, including gas appliances and insurance, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24.0%/22.0%/20.0% from 2024-2026 [8][58] - The comprehensive energy business, including distributed energy and EV charging, is projected to grow rapidly, with a target revenue of HKD 5 billion by 2025 [60][61] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.0%/4.9%/3.9% from 2024-2026, reaching HKD 106.4/111.6/116.0 billion [9][10] - Net profit is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5%/11.3%/8.9% over the same period, with EPS of HKD 2.47/2.75/3.00 [9][10] Valuation - Relative valuation using PE and PB multiples suggests a fair value of HKD 37.05, based on a 15x PE and 2.0x PB for 2024 [11][12][13] - The DDM model estimates an intrinsic value of HKD 42.95 per share, based on a two-stage growth model and a cost of equity of 6.6% [14][15][16] Industry and Market Position - Huarong Gas is one of the largest city gas operators in China, with a strong presence in economically developed regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area [17][54] - The company benefits from its stable gas supply, with 87.7% of its gas sourced from pipelines, and long-term contracts with major suppliers like CNPC and Sinopec [42][43] Operational Efficiency and Cash Flow - The company has improved its working capital management, with positive cash flow contributions from prepayments and receivables in 2023 [7][51] - The gap between accounts receivable turnover days and prepayment turnover days has narrowed, indicating better cash flow efficiency [51][52]