Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to an increase in gold prices due to its safe-haven appeal, while the strong performance of the US dollar has exerted pressure on gold prices [5][23] - The basic metals sector is experiencing mixed trends, with copper prices remaining stable amid weak domestic demand, while aluminum prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions and inventory reductions [4][18][19] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are supported by safe-haven buying, but face pressure from a strong dollar [5][23] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for various metals, with specific recommendations for companies in the sector [14][22] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices are fluctuating within a high range, with domestic consumption weakening and inventory levels increasing [12][13] - Aluminum: Prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing inventory reductions, with current prices at 20,490 CNY/ton [18][19] - Precious Metals: Gold prices have risen to an average of 786.42 CNY/gram, while silver prices have also seen a slight increase [5][23] 2. Minor Metals - Tungsten: Prices are mixed, with some products seeing slight increases while overall market activity remains subdued [6][56] - Rare Earths: Prices for light and heavy rare earths have increased, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [7] 3. Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao in the aluminum sector, as well as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Lingnan in the precious metals sector [14][22]

据了解，嘉实稳盛债券成立于2016年6月，基金规模0.48亿元，成立来累计收益率18.53%。从持有人结 构来看，截至2024年末，嘉实稳盛债券的基金机构持有0.16亿份，占总份额的46.67%，个人投资者持有 0.18亿份，占总份额的53.33%。 公开信息显示，现任基金经理李曈先生:中国国籍,硕士研究生,具有基金从业资格。曾任中国建设银行金 融市场部、机构业务部业务经理。2014年12月加入嘉实基金管理有限公司,现任固收投研体系基金经 理。2015年5月14日至2018年11月2日任嘉实理财宝7天债券型证券投资基金基金经理、2015年5月14日至 2020年6月4日任嘉实安心货币市场基金基金经理、2016年1月28日至2020年6月11日任嘉实货币市场基金 基金经理、2016年1月28日至2020年5月29日任嘉实活期宝货币市场基金基金经理、2016年4月21日至 2020年5月29日任嘉实快线货币市场基金基金经理、2016年12月22日至2020年6月4日任嘉实现金宝货币 市场基金基金经理、2017年5月24日至2022年3月29日任嘉实超短债证券投资基金基金经理、2017年5月 25日至2020年6月 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - In the first half of 2025, institutional behavior showed three major changes: asset management extended duration, banks faced dual pressure on liabilities and performance, and insurance shifted some demand towards equities [3][4]. - The bond market outlook for the second half of 2025 indicates limited compression space for short-term spreads, while long-term demand from banks remains, potentially benefiting the downward trend of interest rates [4][5]. - The continuous reduction in bank convertible bonds is significantly altering market structure and triggering alternative allocation demands, with various funds seeking to fill the gap left by diminishing convertible bond supply [5][6]. Group 2: Motorcycle Industry Analysis - From January to May 2025, the motorcycle industry saw total sales of 6.822 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with significant growth in exports [8][9]. - Specific companies like Chunfeng Power and Qianjiang Motorcycle reported varied sales performance, with Chunfeng Power's fuel motorcycle sales increasing by 23% year-on-year, while Qianjiang Motorcycle experienced a 6% decline in total sales [9][10]. - The overall outlook for motorcycle exports remains positive, maintaining a "recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [15]. Group 3: Aluminum Industry Overview - The aluminum market is currently experiencing a tight supply situation, with domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory dropping to 460,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons week-on-week [17][18]. - Despite a seasonal slowdown in demand, the low inventory levels are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices, while the overall aluminum industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to limited long-term supply growth [22]. - The domestic aluminum oxide market is showing signs of recovery, with production capacity increasing and a slight rise in operating rates, although the market remains relatively loose [21][22]. Group 4: Alternative Investment Strategies - A民间预测指标 has emerged as a significant indicator for asset price movements, particularly in relation to the U.S. recession expectations, influencing various markets including stocks, bonds, and commodities [25]. - The indicator has shown strong correlations with market trends, suggesting that investors should integrate it with traditional economic data for more comprehensive asset allocation strategies [25]. Group 5: Gold Trading Strategy - The gold trading strategy is structured into three goals: determining long-term trends, analyzing strategic asset allocation value, and managing short-term volatility to control maximum drawdown [27]. - The strategy anticipates potential maximum drawdowns of 15%-20% during specific economic conditions, emphasizing the importance of market context in gold investment [27][28].

Group 1: Coal Sector Insights - The coal prices have likely bottomed out in the short term, with limited room for further decline, but the timing of a rebound remains uncertain. The coal market in 2025 is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand balance due to ongoing low-carbon transitions and energy security policies in China [1] - The company anticipates that the price stabilization of coal will gradually improve as the government continues to promote energy structure optimization and stable energy supply policies [1] Group 2: Aluminum Industry Considerations - The company is considering entering the alumina industry, focusing on the availability of bauxite resources. Current market conditions have imposed a ceiling on aluminum production capacity, while alumina supply continues to increase [1] - The company currently holds partial alumina production rights through joint ventures and plans to mitigate cost volatility by monitoring supply-demand changes and engaging in strategic procurement [1] Group 3: External Indicators and Market Conditions - The company is actively tracking market conditions and power supply in the Xinjiang region to assess the feasibility of expanding production capacity through mergers and relocations [2] - In Yunnan, the electricity supply has improved significantly due to increased renewable energy, leading to a slight decrease in electricity prices compared to last year, which has positively impacted the cost of electrolytic aluminum [2] Group 4: Dividend Policy and Financial Performance - The company has a strong tradition of cash dividends, maintaining a payout ratio of around 30% since its listing, with a notable increase to 41.78% in 2024. The company aims to sustain a stable dividend distribution policy while considering shareholder returns and long-term development needs [2] - The company continues to enhance profitability by consolidating and improving its integrated coal-electricity-aluminum supply chain [2] Group 5: International Expansion Considerations - The company currently has no plans for overseas investments due to high risks associated with large capital requirements and long payback periods, but it is closely monitoring international market trends for potential opportunities [2]

Group 1 - In 2024, China's bauxite production is expected to be approximately 93 million tons, remaining stable compared to 2023 due to environmental regulations and mining restrictions [1] - China's alumina production is projected to reach about 85.52 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [2] - The output of electrolytic aluminum in China is estimated to be around 44.01 million tons in 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [4] Group 2 - China's recycled aluminum production is anticipated to be about 10.5 million tons in 2024, continuing its growth trend despite previous slowdowns [5][8] - The production of aluminum processing materials in China is expected to be around 64.6 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, accounting for 67.15% of the global total [9]

研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-17 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 5026.6 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5047.03 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 近期研究报告 《中广核矿业（HK1164）签订新销售 框架协议，充分受益铀价上行》 - 2025.06.10 有色金属行业报告 （2025. ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 产业与宏观共振，资源品全面开花 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周是关键节点，美元下破"箱体"+地缘冲突升级共振，金价重回上升通道，权益恢复弹性， 重视突破新高前的配置际遇。本周核心两点触发黄金重回上升通道：1）美元指数破过去 2 年 震荡箱体进一步走弱。对应周三公布 5 月 CPI 低预期，联储担忧滞胀并未到来，降息概率回 升。美国经济在"滞胀"和"衰退"或走向后者。传统框架/衰退路径是今年驱动金价进一步新 高的重要因子。我们依旧维持金价延续上涨至第二轮第一次降息落地；2）以伊地缘冲突再起， 催生避险情绪进一步助力金价向上弹性；同时我们欣喜看到黄金股摆脱过去 1 个月对金价弱化 的弹性，在周五出现显著修复。我们认为第二波贵金属股行情或启动。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S04905190800 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.79%, ranking it lower among all primary industries. The sub-sectors saw significant gains, with new materials up 8.62%, precious metals up 6.13%, industrial metals up 3.34%, energy metals up 2.29%, and minor metals up 2.17% [1][13] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are impacting market sentiment, particularly affecting industrial metals, while precious metals like gold are benefiting from a declining US dollar index and increased safe-haven demand due to these tensions [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.79%, outperforming the index by 4.04 percentage points [13] - The non-ferrous metals sub-sectors all saw increases, with the new materials sector leading [13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have declined due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, with LME copper at $9,648/ton, down 0.24% week-on-week, and SHFE copper at ¥78,010/ton, down 1.17% [2][31] - Aluminum prices increased, with LME aluminum at $2,503/ton, up 2.10%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,440/ton, up 1.84%. Low inventory levels and rising overseas oil prices are supporting aluminum prices [3][35] - Zinc prices fell, with LME zinc at $2,627/ton, down 1.35%, and SHFE zinc at ¥21,815/ton, down 2.55% [38] - Tin prices rose, with LME tin at $32,780/ton, up 1.63%, and SHFE tin at ¥263,690/ton, up 0.03% [41] Precious Metals - Gold prices surged, with COMEX gold at $3,452.60/oz, up 3.65%, and SHFE gold at ¥794.36/g, up 1.42%. The decline in the US dollar index and geopolitical tensions are driving this increase [4][44]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, highlighting the safe-haven attributes of gold, which has led to an increase in gold prices [3] - Basic metals such as copper and aluminum are experiencing divergent price trends, with copper prices remaining stable while aluminum prices have seen a slight increase [2][23] - The tungsten market is experiencing price increases, although market activity remains subdued [4][56] - The rare earth sector is showing signs of improvement due to a combination of fundamental and sentiment factors [5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, with current prices at 78,350 CNY/ton. Domestic supply is high, and export plans are being arranged by some smelters, leading to potential inventory pressures [2][14] - Aluminum prices have increased slightly, with current prices at 20,465 CNY/ton, supported by improved macro sentiment and declining social inventory [2][23] - Gold prices have been influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the average price at 773.50 CNY/gram, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous week [3][27] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have been adjusted upwards, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 173,500 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate at 252,500 CNY/ton [4][56] - The lithium market remains weak, with prices stabilizing around 60,000-65,000 CNY/ton [41][42] - Cobalt prices are stable, with the CIF price at 11.3-11.6 USD/pound, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [44][45] Rare Earths - Light rare earth prices have decreased by 1.4% to 442,500 CNY/ton, while heavy rare earths have also seen slight declines [5] - The magnetic materials sector is expected to improve as licensing for manufacturers progresses, indicating potential long-term opportunities [5] Market Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Rare Earth Holdings [2][5][26]