| 业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月17日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解镍 | 120725 | 121500 | -775 | -0.64% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇 | 121775 | 122650 | -875 | -0.71% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2500 | 2500 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 119625 | 120650 | -1025 | -0.85% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镍升贴水 | 350 | 200 | -150 | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -192 | -192 | 1 | -0.31% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -3090 | -3668 | 578 | -15.76% | 元/肥 | | ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜铜价震荡收阳，伦铜库存降至10.7万吨。美伦两市显性库存呈强翘翘板效应，两市合计库存约 30万吨级，与年初相比减少4-5万吨左右（且仍有相当部分海运在途）。英美达成贸易协定，欧盟 与日本暂未敲定。沪铜最后交易日现铜78645元，上海升水缩至30元，广东平水，洋山铜溢价降至 39美元，国内社库小增至14.77万吨。空头择机换月至2508，7.95万以上考虑止损。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。周一铝锭社库下降0.2万吨，铝棒增0.4万吨，去库有放缓迹象。近期强现实弱 预期造成Back结构加深短期有利于多头，不过需警惕指数持仓激增至60万手后出现变盘，沪铝完成 对前期缺口的回补后技术面无强烈向上驱动,关注淡季负反馈何时兑现以及月差收窄后的远月活空 机会。 (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金维持震荡， 保太ADC12报价维持在19600元。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元具备较 好的做缩价差机会，但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差仅在400元左右波动空间不足,谈李阶段价差如 有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。 (氧化铝) (原油) 隔夜国际油价大幅回落，布伦特08合约 ...

*业期现日报 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯华东现货价 | 7920.0 | 8035.0 | -115.0 | -1.4% | | | EB2507 | 7589.0 | 7640.0 | -51.0 | -0.7% | | | EB2508 | 7482.0 | 7526.0 | -44.0 | -0.6% | 元/吨 | | EB基差 | 331.0 | 395.0 | -64.0 | -16.2% | | | EB月差 | 107.0 | 114.0 | -7.0 | -6.1% | | 本乙烯海外报价&进口利润 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯CFR中国 | 930.0 | 942.0 | -12.0 | -1.3% | 美元/吨 | | 苯乙烯FOB韩国 | 920.0 | 932.0 | -12.0 | -1.3% | | | 苯乙烯 ...

交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月17日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13900 | 13900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -10 | 25 | -35 | -140.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -160 | -125 | -35 | -28.00% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.45 | 47.05 | 0.40 | 0.85% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12600 | 12200 | 400 | 3.28% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13100 | 12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pricing strategy of N134 carbon black is influenced by market competition and supply-demand relationships, with a focus on product quality, pricing, and service in a competitive market environment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Competition - The carbon black market is highly competitive with numerous suppliers, primarily concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region [2]. - Suppliers compete on product quality, price, and service, as the quality of carbon black is crucial for the product quality of partnering companies [2]. Group 2: Demand Influence - The demand for carbon black mainly comes from industries such as rubber, plastics, and inks, with varying demand levels globally [2]. - Domestic market development speed and demand volume determine the long-term price trends of carbon black, while international supply-demand relationships affect short-term price fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Pricing Strategies - Suppliers adjust prices based on market demand and supply conditions, increasing prices during high demand and potentially lowering them to capture market share during low demand [3]. - Different pricing strategies are developed based on product quality and added value, with high-quality products commanding higher prices [3]. - Raw material and transportation costs significantly impact carbon black pricing, with fluctuations in the prices of natural rubber and petroleum directly affecting carbon black prices [3]. Group 4: Complexity of Pricing Strategy - The pricing strategy for N134 carbon black is complex and dynamic, requiring suppliers to closely monitor market changes and adjust prices accordingly [3]. - Suppliers must also consider raw material and transportation costs to ensure price rationality and maximize profits [3].

2025 年 6 月 16 日 总量研究 经济供需关系有所改善 ——2025 年 5 月经济数据点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 相关研报 经济顶住压力，实现稳定增长——2025 年 4 月经济数据点评（2025-05-19） 如何看待超预期的一季度经济？——2025 年 3 月经济数据点评（2025-04-16） 政策持续显效，经济顺利开局——2025 年 1-2 月经济数据点评（2025-03-17） 四季度 GDP为何超预期？——2024 年 12 月 经济数据点评（2025-01-18） 11 月经济数据成色几何？——2024 年 11 月 经济数据点评（2024-12-16） 10 月经济回暖的三条线索——2024 年 10 月 经济数据点评（2024-11-15） 政策效能显著，经济边际回暖——2024 年 9 月经济数据点评（2024-10-19） 如何看待 8月经济 ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 港口库存持续去化，煤价或已近底部 【2025.6.9-2025.6.15】 行业评级：中性 核心观点 ◆ 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 发布日期：2025.6.16 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-06-21 2024-07-21 2024-08-21 2024-09-21 2024-10-21 2024-11-21 2024-12-21 2025-01-21 2025-02-21 2025-03-21 2025-04-21 2025-05-21 沪深300 煤炭指数 ◆ 港口库存去化进行中，部分产地动力煤价上涨。本周，部分产 地煤价出现上涨，随着供需关系的逐步改善，煤价或已接近底 部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on global oil prices, highlighting the volatility and potential supply disruptions that could arise from the situation, particularly concerning Iran and the Strait of Hormuz [2][3][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures opened on June 16 with a rise of over 7%, reaching $78.32 per barrel, but later fell to $73.3 per barrel, a decrease of 1.2% [2]. - WTI crude oil futures also saw a decline of 1.4%, settling at $71.8 per barrel [2]. - Analysts indicate that the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical situation could lead to significant price increases if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, with the probability of extreme price spikes rising [2][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Concerns - Iran accounts for 4% of global seaborne oil exports and has a production capacity of approximately 4.4 million barrels per day [3]. - Current Iranian oil exports are around 1.5 million barrels per day, primarily to China, showing a recovery from lower levels seen between 2019 and 2022 [3]. - Analysts express concerns that if conflicts escalate to affect oil infrastructure, Iranian oil exports could face interruptions, significantly impacting global oil supply [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Traders are beginning to hedge against potential oil price surges, with significant buying of out-of-the-money call options, particularly for WTI crude oil to reach $85 per barrel by June 25 [4]. - Morgan Stanley analysts have doubled the probability of oil prices spiking to $120-$130 per barrel if Iranian oil supply is disrupted and the Strait of Hormuz is closed [4]. - Some analysts believe that the risk of Iranian supply disruptions is manageable, citing historical precedents where geopolitical tensions had temporary effects on oil prices [5][6]. Group 4: OPEC+ and Global Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ has initiated production increases, with plans to add approximately 1.37 million barrels per day by July, which could mitigate supply concerns [5][6]. - The market is currently oversupplied, and with OPEC+ having around 5 million barrels per day of unused capacity, there is less immediate concern about supply shocks [6]. - Analysts suggest that the oil price may stabilize between $70 and $100 per barrel in the short term, depending on demand and OPEC+ production strategies [6].

正信期货聚酯周报 20250616 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 数据来源：WIND,隆众 成本端：中东局势紧张，美国夏季出行高峰季带动原油需求，国际油价暴涨。PX方面，PX产销维持紧平 衡，但供应恢复较快，加工费或走弱，原油上涨，预计PX绝对价格上涨。 供应端：PTA：下周，国内装置变化不大，预计国内PTA产量窄幅提升。乙二醇：部分检修装置重启，进 口受到中东局势不稳影响，有下降预期，整体供应压力有缓和预期。 需求端：下周聚酯存负荷上调预期，金纶、天龙等计划重启，预计下周国内聚酯产量小幅增加。纺织市 场淡季，缺乏利好刺激之下，工厂原料备货积极性不高。外贸订单表现匮乏，秋冬少量订单打样为主， 但对于后续订单仍存不确定性。受制于终端需求整体疲软，织造开工率仍处低位，月底织造行业开工或 存下行风险。 策略：PTA：国际原油大幅上涨，PTA新投装置投产并逐步提升负荷，国内供应有提升预期，终端季节性 淡季，聚酯有降负预期，PTA供需有转弱预期，预计短期PTA跟随成本重心上 ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月16日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 265600 | 265300 | 300 | 0.11% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 950 | 1100 | -150 | -13.64% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 266100 | 265800 | 300 | 0.11% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -82.50 | -75.10 | -7.40 | -9.85% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 那值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口密亏 | -10937.43 | -9835.62 | -1101.81 | -11.20% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.09 | 8. ...