Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non-US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading in the next stage, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by supply tightness expectations, but the high - capacity operation and market surplus situation remain. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2,950 - 3,250 this week. For aluminum, the current price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, the price of the main contract is expected to face pressure in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 this week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress price increases. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, but the increase in domestic mine production in June fell short of expectations, providing price support. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand has weakened marginally. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel has loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. In the short term, the macro situation is volatile. It is recommended to hold existing short positions from previous highs and pay attention to US tariff changes [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level ferronickel price weakens cost support, the supply - side production cuts fall short of expectations, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still face pressure, and the surplus may increase. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract reference range of 63,000 - 68,000, but there is still downward pressure in the medium term [20]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 116.4 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%. The import profit and loss improved by 200.42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import profit and loss decreased by 605.76 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased to 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 64,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41%. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. In May, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 250,500 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30%. In May, the un - wrought aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 97,000 tons, an increase of 11.75% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. In May, the stainless steel import volume was 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. In May, the lithium carbonate import volume was 21,146 tons, a decrease of 25.37% [20]. Spread - **Copper**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 70 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 340 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 150 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, and the 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan/ton [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On July 14, equity indices and CGB futures declined, while commodity futures showed a relatively balanced performance with new energy metals leading the gains [12][15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price increase is driven by supply speculation, and in the long run, the surplus logic remains. It is recommended to wait for inventory to rise and price to rebound before short - selling [19][24]. - Crude oil's production increase negative impact is being digested, and under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, it is expected to fluctuate. The rebound space is limited by the inventory build - up expectation [27][31]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to macro sentiment and inventory build - up rhythm. In the medium - and long - term, there are concerns about consumption, and a high - level short - selling strategy is advisable [33][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 14, equity indices and CGB futures declined. Among commodity futures, new energy metals led the gains. The top three gainers were lithium carbonate, silicon metal, and crude oil, while the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy [12][13][15]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - On July 14, lithium carbonate rose 3.7% to 66480 yuan/ton. The price increase is due to supply speculation under improved fundamentals, with weak supply - demand drive. In the long run, the surplus logic remains. Short - term upstream - downstream game is intense, and warehouse receipts have decreased rapidly. It is recommended to avoid risks and short - sell at a high level after inventory rises and price rebounds [19][23]. - Market attention to the photovoltaic industry's "anti - involution" and supply - side reform has increased, and lithium carbonate has followed the upward trend. The "Yichun Mines Approval Problem" news had no impact on production. Supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much, and warehouse receipt volume is the key. Supply has increased, but imports may decline in July - August. Demand growth was high from January to June, and the July off - season impact is limited. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory has decreased in July, but may recover in August. Policy changes include domestic "anti - involution" sentiment and the US "Big Beautiful Act" affecting demand [20][22][24]. 1.2.2 Crude Oil - On July 14, crude oil rose 2.6% to 527.5 yuan/barrel. The negative impact of production increase is being digested, and inventory build - up is limited. Under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, it is expected to fluctuate. The rebound space is limited by the inventory build - up expectation. Refinery operating rates are high during the peak demand season, but wait for refinery gross profit and operating rate to decline and inventory to accumulate [27][30][31]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Aluminum - On July 14, aluminum fell 1.4% to 20415 yuan/ton. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate due to macro sentiment and inventory build - up rhythm. In the medium - and long - term, there are concerns about consumption. China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased in June, and downstream industry average operating rate decreased slightly this week. Short - term anti - involution expectation supports the price, but fundamentals show marginal weakening, and the subsequent price depends on real consumption [33][34][36]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - China's goods trade import and export in the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, and imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7%. In June, import and export growth rates were positive and rising [39]. - China will implement zero - tariff treatment for 53 African countries having diplomatic relations with it. Since December 1 last year, China has given zero - tariff treatment to all least - developed countries having diplomatic relations with it, and imports from these countries achieved double - digit growth in the first half of this year [39]. - China - US trade decreased by 9.3% YoY in the first half of the year. Affected by the US "reciprocal tariffs", it changed from growth in Q1 to decline in Q2. Recent Geneva and London talks have achieved progress, and both sides are implementing the London Framework outcomes [39][40]. 2.2 Industry News - The increment of China's social financing scale from January to June was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans to the real economy increased by 12.74 trillion yuan, corporate bond net financing was 1.15 trillion yuan, and government bond net financing was 7.66 trillion yuan [40]. - It is reasonable for small and medium - sized banks to appropriately increase bond holdings within the supervision - permitted scope, but they need to balance investment returns and risk - taking [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives investment outlooks for individual energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc. For example, the outlook for crude oil is "oscillating weakly", and for pure benzene is "oscillating strongly" [17][18]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is currently in an oscillating pattern. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and US - Russia relations, and the prices of downstream chemical products are influenced by factors such as cost support, supply - demand relationships, and device maintenance [1][2]. - In the short - term, investors can base on the positive or negative basis to try trading strategies of buying strong and selling weak. For example, during the contract roll - over period from late July to early August, this strategy can be considered [2]. - Different chemical products have different price trends and influencing factors. For instance, ethylene glycol rebounds due to low inventory and device maintenance; asphalt shows strong performance due to limited production and inventory reduction; while high - sulfur fuel oil faces downward pressure due to increased supply and weakening demand [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. The trade surplus in June was $115 billion. In the first half of 2025, China's exports were a key driver of economic growth, but this support may weaken in the second half if global trade tensions rise [8]. - As of July 11, the oil tanker capacity of tankers that had been anchored for at least 7 days decreased by 4.6% compared to July 4. Floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region continued to rise, while that in other regions declined [8]. - The Caspian Pipeline's (CPC) crude oil exports in June increased by 8% compared to May, reaching 6.177 million tons, or 1.63 million barrels per day [8]. - The US President threatened to impose severe economic penalties on Russia if it does not end hostilities with Ukraine. If no agreement is reached within 50 days, a 100% tariff may be imposed [9]. - China's imports of Iranian crude oil in June reached the highest level since March, increasing to over 1.7 million barrels per day, compared to 1.1 million barrels per day in May [9]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On July 15, crude oil prices fell as the US may not impose sanctions on Russia's oil in the short - term but urged Russia to reach an agreement with Ukraine. The current supply - demand of the crude oil market is gradually loosening, and investors are advised to view oil prices with an oscillating - weakly perspective [7][10]. 3.2.2 LPG - The cost - side support for LPG is weakening, and the fundamental situation of supply - excess remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly. The supply of LPG and civil gas is still at a relatively high level in the same historical period, and demand is weak during the off - season [14][16]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is under great downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production in August and September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The current price of asphalt is over - valued, and the monthly spread may decline as warehouse receipts increase [11][12]. 3.2.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price faces downward pressure. OPEC + may continue to increase production, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation is weakening. The supply of heavy oil is increasing, and the three driving factors supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening [12][13]. 3.2.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The spread between low - and high - sulfur fuel oils continues to rebound. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the movement of crude oil, but it is facing the situation of increasing supply and falling demand, and may maintain a low - valuation operation [13][15]. 3.2.6 Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up load is decreasing, and the futures price oscillates. The market's expectation of reduced methanol imports has weakened, and the port inventory has increased. The production profit of methanol is still relatively high, and the profit of coastal MTO has been repaired to some extent [28][29]. 3.2.7 Urea - The speculative sentiment for urea is slowing down, and the futures price may be under pressure in the short - term. The supply pressure has been slightly relieved due to temporary device maintenance in high - temperature weather, but overall demand is weak, and the market still faces pressure before inventory reduction [28][29]. 3.2.8 Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol continues to oscillate and consolidate. The port inventory is at a low level, and there are device maintenance plans. The restart of Saudi Arabian devices is not going smoothly, which supports the price [22][23]. 3.2.9 PX - Crude oil is strong, and PX rebounds. In the short - term, the cost - side crude oil is likely to remain at a high level, and the overall PX start - up load in Asia is low. The release of new PTA production capacity is imminent, and the market sentiment is cautiously bullish [17]. 3.2.10 PTA - The cost of PTA is strong, and the price rises. Although the supply of PTA is sufficient next week and downstream polyester factories plan to cut production, the cost - side PX provides strong support, and the decline in PTA prices is expected to be limited [17][18]. 3.2.11 Short - Fiber - The short - fiber processing fee remains stable, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. The inventory pressure of short - fiber factories is small, and the sales volume of short - fiber has increased periodically, indicating that the profitable processing fee can continue [23][24]. 3.2.12 Bottle Chips - The basis of bottle chips drops rapidly, and the supply - demand pattern is dull. The supply of bottle chips will gradually decrease, and the processing fee is expected to find support between 350 - 400 yuan/ton and then move towards 500 - 600 yuan/ton [25][26]. 3.2.13 PP - The short - term driving force for PP is limited, and it oscillates. The commodity market sentiment has been boosted, but the impact on PP is limited. The raw material support is weakening, and the supply side is still under pressure [32][33]. 3.2.14 Plastic - The maintenance of plastic slightly increases, and it oscillates. The commodity market sentiment has an impact on plastic, but it mainly follows the trend. The raw material support is weakening, and the supply side still has pressure [32]. 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene is decreasing, and crude oil is strong, so pure benzene oscillates at a high level. In the short - term, there are positive news from downstream industries, and the macro - sentiment is high. In the medium - term, the situation from July to August is favorable, but the high inventory suppresses the rebound [18]. 3.2.16 Styrene - The port supply of styrene is concentrated, and it is strong. The fundamentals of pure benzene have improved, and although there is no strong support for styrene, there is no obvious drag either. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken, but the inventory in the industry is not high, and the port supply is concentrated [20][21]. 3.2.17 PVC - There is a strong expectation but weak reality for PVC, and it oscillates. Macro - level policies boost market sentiment, but the mid - long - term fundamentals are under pressure due to new production capacity, off - season demand, and limited export growth [35]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - The spot rebound of caustic soda slows down, and it oscillates. The support comes from positive market sentiment, weak liquid chlorine prices, and low inventory in the caustic soda industry. The pressure comes from the slowdown of spot price increases and pessimistic supply - demand expectations [36][37]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads for various energy and chemical products. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent crude oil is 1.26, with a change of 0.06; the basis of asphalt is 164, with a change of - 40; the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 322, with a change of - 47 [38][39][40]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists the monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical products, it does not provide specific data analysis in the given content. It only mentions the names of products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [41][52][64].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Pork**: In the short - term, the price will fluctuate within a narrow range; in the medium - term, it shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Suggest selling at high prices [1][2]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, it will have a small rebound; in the medium - term, it will rise first and then fall. Suggest selling at high prices [3][4]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it will oscillate upwards; in the medium - term, it will face pressure. Suggest selling out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil [5][7]. - **PVC**: In the short - term, it will oscillate within the range of 4900 - 5100; in the medium - term, the upside space is limited. Suggest shorting after the upward trend ends [8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - **Supply**: There is a theoretical low point in supply from July to August, but long - term supply remains high. From October 2024 to March 2025, the number of new piglets increased by 7% year - on - year, and the supply pressure from April to September 2025 will increase [1]. - **Demand**: As of July 11, the slaughtering start - up rate was 25.06%, slightly lower than the previous week. Terminal consumption is weak [1]. - **Outlook**: There may be a price increase from July to August, but the high point may be lower than last year. In the fourth quarter, the price may fall, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [2]. Sugar - **International**: Overseas macro factors cause disturbances. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 420 million tons [3]. - **Domestic**: The sales progress is fast. The spot price has increased, and inventory is decreasing. The estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar is positive [4]. - **Outlook**: Zhengzhou sugar will follow the small rebound of raw sugar. In the medium - term, the price increase is limited, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ will increase production in August by 548,000 barrels per day and may further increase by about 550,000 barrels per day on August 3. The U.S. production growth will slow down in the long - term [5][6]. - **Demand**: In the U.S., the refinery start - up rate has approached 95%, and gasoline demand has exceeded 9 million barrels per day. In China, the main refinery start - up rate is at a five - year high, while the local refinery profit is low [6]. - **Inventory**: U.S. crude oil inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and it will accumulate at the end of the third quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is upward momentum; in the medium - term, it will face pressure [7]. PVC - **Cost**: The impact of power restrictions in the northwest has weakened, and the supply of calcium carbide has increased [8]. - **Supply**: The industry start - up rate has decreased slightly, but new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year [8]. - **Demand**: Domestic demand is expected to weaken, and export orders are decreasing [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, the social inventory was 392,700 tons, a 5.25% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Outlook**: The current price increase is mainly due to improved macro sentiment, but the upward momentum is limited [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodities in the market are currently trading on the basis of weak reality and strong expectations. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, the demand for steel products is expected to weaken further, and the inventory is likely to rise slightly. For iron ore, although it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short - term due to news, the overall downward long - term cycle and supply - demand factors pose pressure on its price [2][4]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded steel decreased, factory inventory increased, social inventory continued to decline, and the total inventory also decreased. The apparent demand decreased month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, with a decrease of 0.36 percentage points compared to the previous period. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 239.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.04 million tons (- 0.43%) compared to the previous week. The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 216.66 million tons, a decrease of 4.42 million tons (- 2.00%) compared to the previous week, and the hot - roll production was 323.14 million tons, a decrease of 5.00 million tons (- 1.52%) [2][3]. - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the threaded - steel main contract was 3138 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day and 2.52% from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3276 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day and 2.66% from the previous week. The threaded - steel main basis was 72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous period, and the hot - rolled coil main basis was 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous period [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products was 914.01 million tons, a decrease of 2.12 million tons (- 0.23% - 1.44%) compared to the previous week. The social inventory of threaded steel was 359.49 million tons, a decrease of 5.25 million tons, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coils was 267.75 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons (0.43%) [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Short - term long positions can be considered after a full adjustment, and investors with empty positions should not chase the rising price [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, with nearly 60% of sample steel mills making a profit. The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills last week was 239.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 million tons compared to the previous week. With the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel - mill production restrictions, the hot - metal output is expected to decline further. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and is rising seasonally. The port inventory decline rate has slowed down, and the proportion of trade - mine inventory is relatively high, exerting pressure on the futures price [4]. - **Price and Basis**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract was 766.5 yuan/dry ton, up 0.33% from the previous day and 4.86% from the previous week. The basis of Macfarlane powder (Qingdao Port) against the DCE iron - ore main contract was - 33.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory and Shipment**: The Australian iron - ore shipment was 1569.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.97% compared to the previous week; the Brazilian iron - ore shipment was 709.9 million tons, an increase of 22.63% compared to the previous week. The total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1147.9 million tons, a decrease of 18.70% compared to the previous week. The total port inventory was 13765.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.81% compared to the previous week [5]. - **Industry News**: The total global iron - ore shipment was 2987.1 million tons, a decrease of 7.8 million tons compared to the previous period. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2558.8 million tons, an increase of 93.8 million tons compared to the previous period. In early July, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities increased by 0.8% compared to the previous period, ending 11 consecutive periods of decline [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures in Malaysia may face pressure due to potential production growth in July, with a risk of falling below 4,000 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures are influenced by Malaysian palm oil trends. For soybean oil, although the USDA report adjusted the data, the impact on prices is limited. Domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the basis quotation is under pressure [1]. Meal and Grains - The market sentiment for soybeans is pessimistic due to the USDA's report and concerns about tariffs. However, the Brazilian soybean is firm as the Brazilian premium continues to rise. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is increasing, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. The soybean meal futures may have short - term upward potential [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The pig spot market is weak. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak. Although the current breeding profit has returned to a low level, there is no basis for a significant decline. The market expects a potential market in July and August, but the actual supply may increase, and the 09 contract on the futures has upward pressure [7][9]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market's weak sentiment is being released. The price decline is slowing down as the remaining grain decreases. In the medium term, the supply is tight, and the demand from the breeding industry is increasing, which will support the corn price. Attention should be paid to the auction results and subsequent supply scale [11]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is becoming more relaxed, and the rebound of raw sugar is limited, maintaining a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar supply is marginally loose, and it is advisable to take a bearish approach after the price rebounds [14]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather affects egg production. The egg price has reached a phased low, and demand may improve due to potential promotions and increased replenishment by traders. The egg price may rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited [16]. Cotton - The differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the cotton industry is intensifying. The downstream is facing difficulties, but the tight commercial inventory of cotton in the 2024/25 season before the new cotton is on the market still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate in a higher range, but there is a risk of decline if the downstream remains weak [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.12%); the Y2509 futures price was 7,994 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.10%); the basis was 236 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 7.09%). On July 14, the 09 - 01 spread was 34 yuan, up 14 yuan [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 11, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,770 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.34%); the P2509 futures price was 8,748 yuan, up 66 yuan (0.76%); the basis was 22 yuan, down 96 yuan. On July 14, the 09 - 01 spread was 30 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 11.76%) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9,610 yuan, unchanged; the 01509 futures price was 9,424 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 0.16%); the basis was 186 yuan, up 15 yuan (8.77%) [1]. Meal and Grains - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu was 2,830 yuan, unchanged; the M2509 futures price was 2,992 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.54%); the basis was - 162 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 10.96%). The Brazilian 9 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 74 yuan, up 26 yuan (54.2%) [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu was 2,550 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.79%); the RM2509 futures price was 2,659 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.99%); the basis was - 109 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 5.83%). The Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 304 yuan, up 22 yuan (7.80%) [3]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,131 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.73%); the basis was - 171 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 21.28%). The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3,660 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 3,637 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.50%); the basis was 23 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 43.90%) [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 0.29%); the price of the 2509 contract was 14,285 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 0.42%); the 9 - 11 spread was 680 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 2.86%) [7]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Shandong was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 13,950 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; in Liaoning was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Guangdong was 16,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hunan was 14,410 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Hebei was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [7]. Corn - **Corn**: The 2509 futures price was 2,302 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.17%); the basis was 48 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 11.11%); the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 14.67%); the import profit was 546 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.21%) [11]. - **Corn Starch**: The 2509 futures price was 2,647 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.34%); the basis was 53 yuan, up 9 yuan (20.45%); the 9 - 1 spread was 37 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 15.91%); the starch - corn futures spread was 345 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 1.43%) [11]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,639 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.18%); the price of the 2509 contract was 5,817 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.12%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 178 yuan, up 3 yuan (1.66%) [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming was 5,905 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.43%); the basis in Nanning was 243 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 2.80%); the basis in Kunming was 88 yuan, up 18 yuan (25.71%) [14]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,602 yuan/500KG, up 22 yuan (0.61%); the price of the 08 contract was 3,461 yuan/500KG, up 19 yuan (0.55%); the 9 - 8 spread was 138 yuan, up 3 yuan (2.17%) [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.72 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan (8.40%); the basis was - 740 yuan/500KG, up 192 yuan (20.59%) [16]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,875 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.07%); the price of the 2601 contract was 13,815 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the 9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 7.69%) [19]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,282 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan (0.12%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.19%); the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,545 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan (- 0.38%) [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy, and gives corresponding price trend forecasts and operation suggestions [2][4]. Summary by Metal Category Copper - **Price Movement**: The LME copper price fell 0.2% to $9643 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78020 yuan per ton. The US copper tariff will take effect on August 1, and if strictly enforced, the price difference between US copper and LME and SHFE copper is expected to widen, and the prices of LME and SHFE copper will be under pressure [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 900 tons to 109625 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons (SMM caliber). The SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 1100 to 34000 tons [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The copper raw material shortage situation remains, but the marginal impact is weakening. After the US copper tariff is implemented, the supply outside the US is expected to increase. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate weakly. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 77500 - 78600 yuan per ton, and the LME copper 3M is 9500 - 9720 dollars per ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: The LME aluminum price fell 0.21% to $2596 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20405 yuan per ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 35000 tons to 501000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 5000 tons to 406000 tons [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The aluminum ingot inventory remains low, but the supply is expected to increase. Considering the off - season and reduced exports, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 20200 - 20550 yuan per ton, and the LME aluminum 3M is 2560 - 2620 dollars per ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.03% to 17096 yuan per ton, and the LME lead 3S fell by $10.5 to $2017 per ton [5]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 55100 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 249400 tons [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is gradually improving. The LME lead price is strong, but the increase of SHFE lead is expected to be limited [5]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.55% to 22231 yuan per ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell by $38 to $2739 per ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 93100 tons [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the zinc price is bearish. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate. The SHFE zinc main contract is expected to move between 22231 yuan per ton [7]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price fluctuated. The supply is at a low level, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply and demand are balanced [9][10]. - **Inventory**: The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9644 tons as of July 11, 2025 [10]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, the tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic tin price is expected to operate between 250000 - 280000 yuan per ton, and the LME tin price between 31000 - 35000 dollars per ton [10]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price fell under pressure. The contradiction in the nickel market is concentrated in the ferro - nickel production line [11]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory - related information for analysis is provided in the text [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The ferro - nickel price is expected to continue to fall, and the nickel price has a certain short - selling value. The operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan per ton, and the LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16000 dollars per ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 1.11%, and the LC2509 contract rose 3.42% [13]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory - related information for analysis is provided in the text [13]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The supply is expected to remain high, and the short - term price is affected by news and demand expectations. The operating range of the LC2509 contract is 65200 - 67700 yuan per ton [13]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index rose 0.77% to 3124 yuan per ton [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts increased by 4800 tons to 23400 tons [16]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The alumina capacity is in excess. The price is expected to be driven up in the short - term but will be anchored by the cost in the long - term. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2850 - 3300 yuan per ton [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12715 yuan per ton, up 0.04% [18]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 1167500 tons, a 0.93% increase [18]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The supply exceeds demand in the short - term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [18]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.63% to 19805 yuan per ton [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 1400 tons to 27000 tons [20]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the price is expected to face resistance [20].

否则一旦家长自己年纪到了，拥有的社会资源渐渐消失，这种保护就会面临断档的风险。 这时孩子突然从温室走进冰冷的社会钢铁丛林，就会发现外面的游戏规则怎么跟以前的不一样。 别教孩子做个好人，教他做个狠人。 这个狠，不是外表态度上的狠，而是思想实际，行事果断，不被陈腐的规矩道德束缚而绑手绑脚。 反而一个人道德感太强，太讲究规矩，会非常容易内耗。因为他会发现这个世界很多地方不讲规矩不讲 道德。 所以很多从小被教育当乖孩子的人，长大走入社会会出现明显的不适应。 中国人的教育都是保护教育，许多父母就算砸锅卖铁也要让孩子过上最好的生活。 但这种岁月静好的保护，除非家长有能力保护孩子一辈子，从生到死都安排的妥妥当当。 这种明显的不适应，轻则让孩子困惑，重则让孩子抑郁怀疑人生。 这个问题的根源在于家庭教育，很多家长高估了自己的能力。 在自己无力给到孩子一生足够托举的时候，提前塞给了孩子许多只有托举以后才配拥有的东西。 【道德教育】就是这么个东西。 真正完整的道德教育，只有富人才有能力给予。因为富人有足够的金钱和社会资源来实践这个道德，而 不仅仅是嘴巴里讲道德。 富人可以说，遇到事情不争不抢，因为爸妈有足够的给你，所以你不必去争抢 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the polyolefin market experienced slight fluctuations, with LLDPE and PP futures showing minor declines of 0.23% and 0.31% respectively, while the pure benzene market saw an increase of 4.80% [1] - LLDPE main contract closed at 7291 yuan/ton and PP main contract at 7069 yuan/ton, with the current spot prices for LLDPE ranging from 7170 to 7650 yuan/ton and PP prices between 7020 to 7220 yuan/ton across different regions [1] - Supply pressures eased slightly due to concentrated maintenance of production facilities, with PE and PP operating rates at 74.68% and 77.42% respectively as of July 10 [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the demand for polyolefins is currently weak due to seasonal factors, with various industries showing stable or declining operating rates [1] - As of July 10, the inventory levels for PE and PP were reported at 15.692 million tons and 5.604 million tons respectively, indicating a slight increase in trade inventory [1] - The cost side is influenced by OPEC+ production plans, which have led to a slight rebound in oil prices, providing some support to the market despite the overall supply-demand balance being loose [1] Group 3 - Pure benzene futures rose to 6183 yuan/ton, while styrene showed a slight increase to 7416 yuan/ton, with spot prices for pure benzene in East China at 5960 yuan/ton [1] - The operating rate for pure benzene was reported at 77.77%, with downstream weighted operating load at 80.73%, indicating a slight increase in production [1] - Inventory levels for pure benzene and styrene showed a decrease and increase respectively, with pure benzene port inventory at 15.9 million tons and styrene at 12.8 million tons as of July 9 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions will show a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the repeated negotiations on reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should focus on the 78000 support level [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected that the main contract price will fluctuate widely in the range of 2950 - 3250 this week. Mid - term, it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices. For aluminum, the current aluminum price is running at a high level, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected to be under short - term high - level pressure. The main contract should focus on the 20800 pressure level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected that the market will be mainly in a weak and volatile state, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the mine end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; in a pessimistic scenario, the zinc price may decline. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium - to - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, but the market sentiment is currently stable. The nickel fundamentals change little, and the cost support for refined nickel weakens. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to the range of 118000 - 126000 [10]. Tin - In the short term, macro disturbances are large. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high prices, and pay attention to the resumption progress in Myanmar and US tariff policies [13]. Stainless Steel - Currently, macro uncertainties increase, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The nickel - iron price remains low, weakening cost support. The supply - side production cuts are less than expected, and demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short term, the market will be mainly in a volatile state, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the balance surplus may increase recently. The market will be in a state of game between sentiment and fundamentals, and it is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, with the main contract referring to the range of 60000 - 65000 [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.13% to 78720 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss was - 583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.18 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.30% to 20790 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 150.5 yuan/ton to - 1324 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2511 - 2512) increased by 25 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.13% to 22430 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 86.06 yuan/ton to - 1524 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons month - on - month. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 1.29% to 122150 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 was - 202 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 0.11% to 904 yuan/nickel point [10]. Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production was 31800 tons, a decrease of 3220 tons month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 19157 tons, an increase of 10325 tons month - on - month [10]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.64% to 266700 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 848.75 yuan/ton to - 17105.21 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 470 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13449 tons, an increase of 3588 tons month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.39% to 12700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2508 - 2509) decreased by 85 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - In April, the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons month - on - month. The 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in Indonesia (Qinglong) remained unchanged at 36.00 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.16% to 63750 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 1460 yuan/ton to - 1600 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, an increase of 6010 tons month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93875 tons, a decrease of 145 tons month - on - month [18].