| | | | The Press of the control of the program and the first of the | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3809.2 | -0.57% | -096% | 2.50% | -1.28% | -2.85% | | | 上证50期货 | 2668.6 | -01-94 | -0.91% | 2.28% | 0.10% | -0.35% | | | 中证500期货 | 5578 | -0.304 | 0.294 | 1.47% | -4.15% | -2.02% | | | 中证1000期货 | 5915 | -0.17% | 0.734 | 1.96% | -2.22% | 1.14% | | 国债 | 2年期国债期货 | 102.41 | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.21% | -0.01% | -0.55% ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 5 月消费者信心指数上升，4 月份规上工 企利润增速 3% [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-28 宏观策略（黄金） 美国佛州签署法案承认金银为法定货币 金价回调超过 1%一度跌破 3000 美金关口，市场风险偏好回升， 受到欧盟与美国谈判进展的推动，特朗普此前威胁对欧盟加征 50%关税，主要还是通过极限施压方式达成协议。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 5 月消费者信心指数升至 98.0 综 欧美关税谈判压力缓和，软数据边际改善，市场风险偏好提升， 三大股指大幅上涨。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 前 4 月规上工企利润同比增 1.4% 报 4 月份规上工企利润单月增速回升至 3%，拆分看，量价双弱， 利润率改善支撑利润增速。营收增速则回落至 2.6%表明抢出口 对需求拉动不及预期。 有色金属（铜） IEA 警告全球精炼铜需求料在 2050 年之前大幅增加 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F03107631 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0021468 | | Tel： ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@ ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@q ...

Group 1: Dollar Cycle and Economic Impact - The dollar cycle reflects the relative strength of the U.S. economy and global investor portfolio adjustments, with a strong U.S. economy leading to dollar appreciation and increased capital inflows[1] - In 2025, the dollar is expected to enter a short-term correction due to the negative impact of Trump 2.0 on the U.S. economy, which may undermine investor confidence in the dollar[1] - The dollar's share in the international monetary system may decline as global economic multipolarity increases and countries diversify their reserve assets[1] Group 2: Economic and Inflation Forecasts - U.S. GDP growth is projected at 2.9% in 2023, decreasing to 1.4% in 2025, while PCE inflation is expected to stabilize around 2.8%[2] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is forecasted to be 0.4% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2025, with CPI inflation expected to decrease from 5.5% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2025[2] - The U.S. federal funds target rate is anticipated to be 5.33% in 2023, dropping to 4.00% by 2025[2] Group 3: Dollar Index and Its Influences - The dollar index, which is a weighted average of the dollar against six major currencies, has seen significant fluctuations, with a long-term upward trend since 2008[3] - The euro/dollar exchange rate, which accounts for nearly 60% of the dollar index, has a decisive influence on its movements, with a correlation of 0.7 to 0.8 with U.S.-Eurozone interest rate differentials[3] - The dollar index is expected to decline to around 97 by the end of 2025 due to trade wars and narrowing economic growth differentials between the U.S. and Eurozone[3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Market risk preferences significantly affect capital flows, with a tendency for funds to return to dollar assets during risk-off periods, strengthening the dollar index[1] - The anticipated Trump 2.0 trade war may lead to a decrease in the allocation of dollar assets by international investors, exacerbating the dollar's depreciation[1] - The dollar's dominant position in international payments and reserves remains intact, despite fluctuations, with its share in global reserves projected to be 57.8% by 2024[1]

Core Viewpoint - The global risk appetite indicator has rebounded from a low level to a neutral level, indicating a strong recovery in investor sentiment, although challenges remain in corporate earnings and economic data [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The global stock market risk appetite indicator has significantly improved from the deep panic level (historical 9th percentile) in early April to the neutral level (historical 55th percentile) [1]. - Investor concerns about an economic recession have decreased, with the probability of a U.S. recession dropping from a recent high of 66% to 38% [3]. - Historical data shows that in the past 38 years, there have been 32 instances where global risk appetite rebounded from panic to neutral, with only 4 instances returning to panic, suggesting a potential for further market upturns [3]. Group 2: Regional Sentiment Disparities - Different regions exhibit significant disparities in investor sentiment, with countries like India (32nd percentile), South Korea (14), Indonesia (9), and Thailand (12) showing low risk appetite, indicating potential rebound opportunities [4]. - Conversely, countries such as Singapore (97), the Philippines (83), South Africa (91), Poland (88), and Mexico (76) are nearing or entering the "euphoric" zone, suggesting potential overvaluation and caution against pullback risks [4]. Group 3: Risk-Love Indicator - The current Risk-Love Indicator shows a global score of 55, with notable scores for various regions: Japan (54), Emerging Markets (27), Asia ex-Japan (28), China (63), and others indicating varying levels of investor sentiment [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed officials' cautious remarks and upcoming US - Japan talks led to a decline in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. EU's 17th round of sanctions on Russia and the possible failure of the Iran nuclear negotiation increased short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Domestically, April's domestic economic data showed a slowdown in domestic demand but strong export performance. The central bank's reduction of LPR rates and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates further eased monetary policy, boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, stocks are expected to be short - term volatile with a short - term cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a short - term high and should be observed cautiously; different commodity sectors also have corresponding short - term trends and operation suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US dollar index fell, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, April's economic data showed a slowdown in domestic demand but strong exports. The central bank's rate cuts and commercial banks' deposit rate cuts boosted domestic risk appetite. Stocks are short - term volatile and can be short - term cautiously long; bonds are at a short - term high and should be observed cautiously; black metals are short - term low - level volatile and should be observed cautiously; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and should be observed cautiously; energy and chemicals are short - term volatile and rebounding and can be cautiously long; precious metals are short - term high - level volatile and can be cautiously long [2]. - **Stock Index**: Supported by sectors such as cultivated diamonds, biomedicine, and millet economy, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the slowdown in domestic demand, strong exports, and monetary policy easing, short - term cautious long - position is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices rose. Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating and the weakening of the US dollar supported the rebound of gold prices. The Fed's policy path is the core contradiction. Long - term, the global de - dollarization trend supports gold. For silver, due to geopolitical tensions and manufacturing weakness, short - term observation is recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets were stable, and trading volume increased slightly. Despite the LPR rate cut, market confidence was still weak. Demand was weak, and supply was expected to remain high. Short - term, the steel market may be range - bound [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rebounded slightly. Steel mills' profitability was good, and iron - water production was high. Supply may increase in the second quarter. Short - term, iron ore is strong, and medium - term, a short - position strategy at high prices is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were stable. Demand weakened, and supply continued to decline. Short - term, the prices of ferroalloys will continue to fluctuate [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market focused on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the Iran nuclear negotiation. Oil prices were volatile and slightly higher. Short - term, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [8]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed crude oil and were volatile. Supply was low, and demand was boosted. Inventory transfer was smooth, and short - term, it will follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level [8]. - **PX**: PX prices rose due to many maintenance and the resonance of the polyester sector. It will remain in a tight - balance situation. There may be a risk of decline if downstream production cuts occur [8]. - **PTA**: The increase in US orders was not universal, and the domestic market was in the off - season. There is a risk of short - term correction, and the price center will follow crude oil [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and inventory decreased. However, with low downstream profits, there is a risk of short - term correction, and it will be high - level volatile [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Polyester prices were high - level volatile, and short - fiber prices were slightly lower and overall stable. With stable downstream start - up and expected release of orders, it will continue to be volatile [10]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang was weak. Supply improved marginally, but overall supply was still sufficient, and demand was weak, so the price was under pressure [10]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market price was weak. Although there was a short - term inventory transfer, supply was at a high level, and demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of PP exports on demand [11]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price was adjusted. Import profit was favorable, but overall pressure was not effectively relieved, and the price increase was limited [11]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price was stable with slight fluctuations. In the short - to - medium term, the price was strong and volatile, but in the medium - to - long term, it was under pressure due to high production and limited demand [12][13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: China's April refined copper production increased. Social inventory increased, and the processing fee was low. With the approaching of the off - season and the impact of tariff reduction, copper prices are short - term volatile, and medium - term short - position opportunities can be sought [14]. - **Aluminum**: The import of primary aluminum increased. Domestic and overseas inventory changes led to a price decline, but the short - term decline space is limited. Short - term short - position should be cautious [14]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist. The mid - term raw material gap is rigidly restricted. Demand is in the off - season, and short - term prices are volatile [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybean prices rose due to concerns about South American crop damage. The future rainfall in Argentina is expected to be normal, and the damage situation needs verification [16]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans is expected to weaken. The supply of oil mills has returned to normal, and the basis is weak [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of soybean oil increased, and the basis was weak. The inventory of rapeseed oil decreased, but the market was in the off - season. The fundamentals of soybean and rapeseed oil are expected to be weak [17]. - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil continued to rebound. Domestic inventory has a turning point, but import profit is still inverted. International export growth is limited, and the price increase space is restricted [18]. - **Pig**: After the May holiday, terminal demand was weak, and supply was stable. Spot prices are under pressure, and futures prices are expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [18]. - **Corn**: Under the pressure of registered warehouse receipts, corn futures prices declined. Spot prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and futures prices are stable in the 2300 - 2400 range [19].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅上涨。股市全市场成交额 12112 亿元，较上日放量 923 亿元。二 季度政策面托底经济需求，且稳定股市预期，尤其是强调了加强汇金 ...

市场主流观点汇总 2025/5/20 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/5/16 | | | 2025/5/12 至 | 2025/5/16 | | | | 乙二醇 | 4461.00 | 乙二醇 | | | 5.74% | | | | 铁矿石 | 736.50 | 铁矿石 | | | 4.60% | | | | PTA | 4798.00 | PTA | | | 4.19% | | | | PV ...

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 | 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 含权债基>短债基金>高等级同业存单指基金 | 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金 | | 收益回顾 | >中长期债基> 现金管理 | >现金管理>中长期债基 | | | 近一个月资金面进一步转松,中美关税大幅 | 1月偏强震荡，2月-3月中旬债市大幅回 | | 债市回顾 | 缓和、提升市场风险偏好,长债利率有所回 | 调，4月初债市快速走强后转为偏强震荡，5 | | | 升,短端利率相对稳定。 | 月中旬以来转为偏弱震荡。 | | 行业事件 | 1、中国证监会近日公开印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 | | | 跟踪 | | | | 展空 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个月维度) | | | -同业存单:预计利率偏强震荡。 | | | | 明显,私人部门融资需求偏弱;宏观政策兼 | 近期经济金融数据显示国内低通胀特征依然 | | | 顾积极有为和定力,"超预期"政策出台必 | | | 债市展望 | - ...