Economic News - The Hong Kong government has banned the import of seafood, sea salt, and seaweed from 10 prefectures in Japan due to the discharge of nuclear wastewater from Fukushima [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of high-quality development in the service industry for stabilizing employment and promoting consumption [1] - From January to October, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises in China increased by 0.9% year-on-year, while total profits decreased by 3.0% [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to expand market access for foreign investment, particularly in the service sector, and improve the investment environment [4] Company Insights - Meituan reported a revenue of 95.488 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but incurred an operating loss of 18.632 billion yuan [5] - Meixinsheng is focusing on AI sensor technology, enhancing its product offerings in smart perception and human-computer interaction [5] - CITIC Heavy Industries has been involved in major national projects, providing critical materials and equipment for space missions [5] - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals received approval for a generic drug, indicating progress in its product pipeline [5] - Pinggao Electric won bids totaling approximately 773 million yuan in a procurement round from the State Grid Corporation, which is expected to positively impact future operations [5] Daily Research Report - Zhongtong Express reported a Q3 business volume of 9.573 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, but slightly lowered its annual business volume guidance due to industry trends [6] - The company experienced a slight increase in single-ticket revenue, which grew by 1.7% to 1.21 yuan per ticket, indicating a recovery in profitability [7] - The company's single-ticket profit level improved in Q3, with adjusted net profit rising from 0.21 yuan in Q2 to 0.26 yuan in Q3, suggesting a positive outlook for Q4 [8] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 9.06 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.0X, 11.5X, and 10.2X [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.34% at 25,858.89 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose slightly by 0.02% to 5,599.11 points. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.38% to 9,130.18 points. The total market turnover was HKD 146.2 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 2.727 billion [1][2]. Robotics Sector Performance - Robotics concept stocks showed strong performance, with Yujian rising by 9.75% and Horizon Robotics-W increasing by 4.23%. Other notable gains included Ubtech up by 3.76% and SUTENG up by 4.93%. The report from CITIC Securities highlighted that leading manufacturers have secured significant orders, indicating 2025 as a critical year for the commercialization of embodied intelligence [11][13]. Semiconductor Sector Insights - The semiconductor sector also performed well, with Huahong Semiconductor rising by 2.34%. The establishment of Huahong Hongli Semiconductor (Wuxi) Co., Ltd. was noted, focusing on integrated circuit manufacturing and sales, fully owned by Huahong Semiconductor [8][10]. IPO Performance - Haiwei Co., Ltd. experienced a significant drop of 22.97% on its first trading day, closing at HKD 11.00 per share. It is the second-largest capacitor film manufacturer in China, with applications in various sectors including new energy vehicles and industrial equipment [3][7]. Morgan Stanley's Outlook on A-shares - Morgan Stanley maintains a constructive view on the CSI 300 Index for 2026, projecting a target of 5,200 points by the end of the year. Key investment themes include the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, growth in AI infrastructure, and a K-shaped recovery in consumption [14][15].

Group 1 - The article discusses the macroeconomic environment in the US, highlighting the potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction [13][14][16] - The US government shutdown has ended, easing liquidity pressures on the dollar, but concerns about future shutdowns remain due to high fiscal pressures [15][19] - Employment data shows a mixed picture, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% while non-farm payrolls have shown some recovery, indicating a complex labor market [19][21][26] Group 2 - The European economy is experiencing a "weak recovery," with strong service sector performance but declining manufacturing, particularly in Germany and France [27][28] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates in December, with a high probability of no further cuts due to stable inflation around 2% [28][30] - Political instability in France poses risks to economic stability, particularly regarding the upcoming budget vote [28][29] Group 3 - Japan's government has approved a significant fiscal stimulus package of 21.3 trillion yen (approximately $135.4 billion), aimed at addressing inflation and economic challenges [36] - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain a loose monetary policy, with potential rate hikes not expected until early 2026 [37][38] - Tensions in Japan-China relations are impacting the tourism sector, which is crucial for Japan's economy [38] Group 4 - The US stock market is expected to recover in the short term due to a favorable earnings outlook and supportive monetary policy, despite concerns about high valuations and potential bubbles in AI investments [40][41][47] - The bond market is viewed positively, with expectations of a slight decline in yields as the Fed continues its easing cycle [48] - The dollar may face downward pressure due to rising unemployment and potential changes in Fed leadership, while the euro is expected to remain supported by stable inflation and economic conditions [52][56] Group 5 - China's economy is under pressure, with key indicators showing weaker-than-expected performance, particularly in exports and domestic demand [64][70] - The government is expected to accelerate fiscal spending to support economic growth, with a focus on infrastructure and social welfare [79][80] - Monetary policy is shifting towards a focus on interest rate adjustments rather than strict quantity targets, aiming to optimize the financial structure [86][88]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic industry index experienced a decline of 2.34% as of November 27, 2025, reflecting a market performance that is in line with the CSI 300 index, which saw a return of -2.70% during the same period [4][7] - The report highlights ongoing issues with price competition in the industry, with regulatory bodies taking steps to address disordered pricing practices [4][15] - The domestic market for photovoltaic installations showed a month-on-month increase of 30.43% in October 2025, with a total of 12.60 GW added, although this represents a year-on-year decline of 38.30% [18] - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.40x, which is 47.77% below historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic industry index showed a volatile performance in November, with a significant adjustment in individual stocks, leading to a majority of declines across sub-sectors [7][11] - The average daily trading volume for the photovoltaic sector reached 77.21 billion yuan, indicating increased market activity despite the overall downturn [7] Industry and Company Dynamics - Regulatory efforts are focused on curbing price competition, with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizing the need for a stable pricing environment [15] - In October 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation capacity reached 12.60 GW, marking a 30.43% increase from the previous month, while the cumulative installed capacity for the year reached 252.87 GW, a 39.48% year-on-year increase [18] - The report notes a significant drop in photovoltaic component exports, with a total of 19.40 GW in October, reflecting a 24.3% decrease from the previous month [23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies within specific sub-sectors such as energy storage inverters, photovoltaic glass, polysilicon materials, and integrated component manufacturers, as these areas are expected to see improved performance [4][16] - The ongoing process of capacity reduction in the photovoltaic industry is anticipated to enhance the competitive landscape and improve the overall health of the sector [4][34]

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market in 2026 requires a shift from a broad reliance on overall market beta to a more refined selection of individual bond values, focusing on four main themes: technology growth, energy-driven investments, anti-involution, and low volatility bottom positions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In 2025, the convertible bond market strengthened due to a tight supply-demand balance and support from the equity market, with the China Convertible Bond Index showing a cumulative increase of 16.50% [1]. - High-priced, low-premium rate indices outperformed, with a cumulative increase of 21.48%, while low-priced convertible bonds achieved a steady return of 17.05% due to price recovery and valuation uplift [1]. - The convertible bond market exhibited three notable characteristics in 2025: scarcity of bottom-position bonds, index-based allocation tools, and a valuation logic leaning towards equity [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The convertible bond market experienced a significant contraction, with the total size down by 22.49% from the beginning of the year, primarily due to a reduction in issuance plans and an increase in forced redemptions as the equity market rose [1]. - The supply side is expected to remain under pressure, with a significant contradiction between the supply and maturity scale of convertible bonds, even without considering forced redemptions [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategy - The valuation of convertible bonds is expected to remain high in 2026, supported by optimistic expectations for the equity market, driven by policy incentives and strong demand for equity assets [2]. - The first half of 2026 is anticipated to be a peak period for allocation, with a tight supply-demand balance providing a resilient foundation for high valuations [2]. - A neutral to slightly aggressive position is recommended for 2026, with a focus on maintaining a certain level of bottom-position bonds for liquidity and stability [3]. - Strategic opportunities should include selecting non-redeemed equity-type convertible bonds, participating in new bond issuance windows, and identifying bonds with strong conversion intentions [3].

2025年11月28日 证券研究报告 | 服务主导新周期 ——对"十五五"中国经济趋势的判断 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 2025年中国经济正经历三大深刻且相互关联的转变：（1）增长主引擎正从第二产业向更具潜 力的第三产业（服务业）切换；（2）建筑业自然萎缩；（3）内需主力从投资转向消费。 • "反内卷"=控供给+扩需求（主要针对实物产品部门），是串联这一切的主线。其路径清晰： 在供给端，建筑业的主动萎缩与工业产能出清，正是清理低效资本、发展新质生产力的关键一 步；需求端，资本存量过高背景下投资需求总量难以扩张（结构会有亮点），消费构成扩需求 主力，而发展服务业正是 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall fundamentals and performance of the building materials sector have shown signs of recovery [2]. - The real estate market is currently under pressure, with significant declines in sales and prices, but there is potential for policy support to stabilize the market [5][26]. - The industry is transitioning from a focus on high leverage and turnover to an emphasis on quality, service, and sustainability, with urban renewal expected to unlock potential [5][26]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector Overview - As of October 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,268 CNY/sqm, down 0.84% month-on-month and 7.60% year-on-year [5][26]. - New residential properties averaged 16,973 CNY/sqm, up 0.28% month-on-month and 2.67% year-on-year [5][26]. - Cumulative sales area of commercial housing fell by 6.8% year-on-year, with a 9.6% decline in sales value [5][26]. - The industry is in a "bottoming" phase, with expectations for policy measures to support recovery [5][26]. Building Materials Sector Overview - The cement industry is now included in the national carbon market, with companies over 2.6 million tons of CO₂ equivalent subject to quota management [5][45]. - The overall revenue of the cement industry is under pressure, but profitability is improving, particularly for leading companies [5][45]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are experiencing structural recovery, with supply constraints expected to improve competition in the long term [5][46]. - The building materials sector is currently at historical low valuations, with some stocks offering attractive dividend yields [5][45]. Recommendations - For the real estate sector, companies such as Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) are favored due to their stable operations and focus on first- and second-tier cities [5][26]. - In the building materials sector, companies like Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) are recommended for their strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [5][45]. - For glass fiber, China Jushi (600176) is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity due to its recovery in profitability [5][46].

Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to grow at 4.9% in 2026, with infrastructure investment accelerating and manufacturing investment maintaining at 6%[11] - CPI is projected to have a slight positive growth of 0.5%, while PPI's decline is expected to narrow to -0.9%[12] - Fiscal policy will remain expansionary, with an increase of 620 billion yuan in incremental funds compared to 2025[13] Asset Allocation - The overall preference for asset allocation is ranked as follows: stocks > commodities (industrial) > gold > currency > bonds[7] - 10-year bond yields are expected to fluctuate between 1.70%-2.0%, while 30-year yields are projected to be in the range of 1.90%-2.30%[32] - The RMB is anticipated to gradually appreciate, potentially reaching around 6.80 by the end of 2026, with annualized volatility maintained at 3.0%-4.0%[35] Stock Market Insights - A-shares are entering the next phase of an "innovation bull market," driven by inflation recovery and liquidity supporting valuation increases[3] - The overall A-share market has seen a 73.4% increase from February 2024 to November 2025, with valuation recovery being a significant driver[51] - A-share earnings are expected to rise significantly in 2026, supported by improved PPI and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies[52] Commodity Market Trends - Commodities like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from increased demand driven by AI and new energy sectors, indicating a long-term price increase[39] - The "green inflation" narrative is expected to continue, with supply constraints and demand from new economic sectors driving prices higher[43] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to stabilize commodity markets by addressing overcapacity in certain industries[41] Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices are projected to oscillate between $4,000-$4,200 per ounce through the end of 2025, with an upward trend expected in 2026 due to liquidity easing[50] - The historical bull market in gold has been supported by central bank purchases and a weakening of global sovereign currency credit[44]

晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投 资策略报告 工企利润短期波动，后续关注政策部署——2025 年 1-10 月工业企业效益数据 点评 行业研究 把握创新与出海机遇，关注新技术空间——医药生物行业 2026 年度投资策略 报告 大模型厂商发力 C 端应用，关注 AI 应用商业化落地——计算机行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 1、 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is showing weakness, while the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index is rising, currently up approximately 0.35%, with leading stocks including Hengyi Petrochemical, Xingfa Group, and Chuanfa Longmang [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen net inflows in 9 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 25.75 million yuan [1] - Guosen Securities suggests three main investment themes: 1) resource and overseas supply chains under macro mid-term trends, 2) technology "AI+" under strong industrial trends, and 3) policy-driven "anti-involution" and self-sufficiency [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.8% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.2%, indicating potential benefits from policies aimed at anti-involution, structural adjustments, and phasing out outdated capacity [1]