农产品早报 2025-12-29 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 【行情资讯】 上周五 CBOT 大豆高开回落收跌。周末国内豆粕现货下跌 10 元/吨，上周国内豆粕成交一般、提货量较 高。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 206.44 万吨，上周压榨大豆 184.04 万吨，上周饲企库存天数 为 9.45 天环比上升 0.22 天。 20251217T12Z 预报显示巴西大豆主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷最大主产区布宜诺斯艾利斯 省降雨仍偏少，需持续关注其天气表现。预计在南美天气没有出现显著问题背景下大豆到港成本仍然震 荡为主。 【策略观点】 进口成本方面，全球大豆新作产量一直被边际下调，总产量已持平于总需求，全球大豆供应相比 24/25 年度有所下降，这意味着进口成本的底部或已显现，但向上空间或需要更大的减产力度。当前国内 ...

美股方面，三大主要指数12月23日均录得上涨，其中道琼斯工业平均指数涨幅为0.16%，纳斯达克综合 指数涨幅为0.57%，标普500指数涨幅为0.46%，并创出收盘价的历史新高。大型科技股普遍上涨。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 美国商务部于12月23日公布的首次预估数据显示，该国经济在2025年第三季度的增长按年化计算为 4.3%，高于第二季度3.8%的增速。美国商务部称，增速加快主要由于占其经济总量约70%的个人消费支 出增长提速，以及出口和政府支出增加。其中，当季个人消费支出增长3.5%，政府消费支出和投资增 幅为2.2%，出口增长8.8%，但反映企业投资状况的非住宅类固定资产投资当季仅增长2.8%，显著低于 前一季度的7.3%。 同日，国际贵金属市场表现强劲。现货黄金及白银均创下历史新高。纽约商品交易所（COMEX）黄金 期货收报4515美元/盎司，日涨幅为1.02%。现货白银日内涨幅超过2%，首次突破每盎司70美元的关 口。伦敦现货铂金价格亦刷新历史纪录，并升破2300美元/盎司关口。 此外，国际油价连续 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 宏观研究 外资如何看待 2026 中国经济？ ❖ 前言：本文关注外资对 2026 年中国经济的观点，整体而言，外资认为中国仍 处于新旧动能转换、供需再平衡的过程中，在此背景下，预计 2026 年经济增 速中枢在 4.5%附近（回溯来看外资预测普遍偏低估），通胀温和回升，CPI 转 正，PPI 降幅收窄。 ❖ （一）经济增长：中枢 4.5%左右 一致预期：多数机构认为，2026 年中国实际 GDP 增速 4.5%左右（小摩、德 银、瑞银、OECD、IMF），详见正文。 观点分歧：大摩的预期相对乐观（4.8%），一方面对出口的判断更为积极，预 计 2026 年净出口对 GDP 的贡献在 1.3 个百分点（瑞银为 0.7 个百分点），另一 方面，预计政府消费将有所提速。美银的预期同样乐观（4.7%），主要支撑在 投资，预计增速回升至 3.5%，结构上，基建在 5000 亿新型政策性金融工具+ 政府债扩容背景下维持高增，制造业低个位数增长，地产投资降幅收窄。巴克 莱的预测相对谨慎（4%），认为地产下行与低价风险仍将拖累经济表现。 ❖ （二）通胀：CPI 转正，PPI 降幅收窄 一 ...

智通财经APP获悉，西部证券发布研报称，整车层面2026年核心投资方向在于出口及中高端化，重点关 注整车企业入局人形机器人业务。零部件方面核心投资方向为一体两翼，一体为聚焦主业，核心在于智 能化，出口业务或者其它国产化替代加速的细分板块，两翼则为人形机器人与AIDC相关(液冷或服务器 电源)的泛AI新业务，展翼而起，新业务有望提升资本市场对龙头公司未来发展成长的预期。 西部证券主要观点如下： 从整车竞争来看，该行认为2026年以旧换新补贴不排除金额下降，同时叠加新能源车购置税补贴从10% 降低至5%，市场竞争将会更加激烈。但新能源优质供给继续增加，该行依然看好新能源车渗透率继续 提升。2025年15万以下价格带销量快速增长，在当前时点，该行认为其增长趋势在2026年补贴减少的状 态下或有一定的不确定性，而中高价格带则在2026年有望随着宏观经济和消费复苏稳健增长。同时，该 行认为2025年整车出口好于预期，新能源车出口高增，海外丰厚的利润也为国内车企的盈利提升提供动 力。展望2026，欧洲、俄罗斯、巴西、中东、北非等地区依然具有增长潜力，该行认为国内车企的海外 销量增长还能够维持。 零部件方面，该行认为智能化 ...

Economic Growth and Stability - Despite increased volatility in economic data in the second half of the year, the annual economic growth target is expected to be met due to a strong first half, with GDP growth of 5.2%[1] - Industrial production growth remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in November, slightly down from 4.9% in October[12] - Exports have rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in November, up from -1.1% in October, driven by external demand[12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth decreased from -1.7% to -2.6%, with a monthly decline of 11.5% in November[15] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth at 1.9% year-on-year, although monthly growth was negative at -4.5%[16] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 15.9%, with a monthly drop of 30% in November[27] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales growth fell to 1.3% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking six consecutive months of decline[31] - The retail sales total saw a month-on-month decline of 0.42%, indicating weakened consumer momentum[31] - Major consumer categories, including jewelry and home appliances, experienced significant drops in sales growth, with jewelry sales falling from 37.6% to 8.5% year-on-year[34]

Key Points - The core view is that in the heavy truck sector, exports will surpass domestic sales by 2026, with electric and natural gas vehicles outpacing diesel trucks, focusing on export leaders [2][3][12] - For 2025, domestic sales are expected to reach 814,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, while exports are projected at 332,000 units, up 14.3%, leading to a total wholesale volume of 1,143,000 units, reflecting a 26.7% increase [2][19] - The natural demand for heavy trucks is stabilizing, with an estimated 646,000 units driven by natural demand in 2025, indicating that policy support is not the sole driver of growth [2][19] - By 2026, the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks is expected to rise to 30%-35%, with natural gas trucks also gaining traction as gas prices decline and oil prices stabilize [3][12] - Investment recommendations include focusing on export leaders such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck H), engine leaders like Weichai Power, and companies with potential in both export and domestic sales like China National Heavy Duty Truck A, FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, and CIMC Vehicles [3][12] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The bus sector is expected to see stronger external demand than internal demand in 2026, with a projected 3% increase in domestic sales and a 30% increase in exports [5][13] - The key players in the bus sector include Yutong and King Long, which are expected to benefit from the dual drivers of domestic recovery and sustained overseas demand [6][13] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle market is witnessing a decline in domestic sales but a significant increase in exports, particularly for large-displacement motorcycles, which are expected to grow by 31% year-on-year in 2026 [8][14] - The total motorcycle sales for 2026 are projected to reach 19.38 million units, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to account for 1.26 million units [8][14] - Investment recommendations in the motorcycle sector favor leading companies such as Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [9][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the year-on-year increase in CPI was mainly driven by a sharp rebound in fresh vegetable prices, while PPI remained weak year-on-year. The unexpected rebound in exports may be due to factors such as the suppression of the base effect in October, Christmas stocking in Europe and the United States, and improvements in Sino-US tariffs. The structure of foreign trade exports continued to improve, with diversification results becoming prominent, and high-end manufacturing becoming the core driving force for exports [2]. - The economy still faces certain pressures. Although there is growth in durable goods and service consumption supported by policies on the consumer side, the structural differentiation of CPI and the mild rebound of core CPI reflect that the overall consumer willingness of residents still needs to be boosted. Exports rebounded unexpectedly in November, and the trade structure continued to improve. Affected by the high base of pre - emptive exports in the first half of this year, the resilience of foreign trade growth next year needs to be continuously observed. The 75BP interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year have brought changes in global liquidity, and overseas trade frictions may still continuously disrupt export expectations. Against the backdrop of the intertwining of internal and external factors, the probability of the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation effects of policies and the improvement signals of prices and foreign trade [3]. - The performance of the bond market in 2026 is expected to be better than expected. Since the second half of the year, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and is mainly dominated by institutional behavior. From the perspective of the domestic fundamentals, the domestic economic data is under pressure, and the necessity of lowering the policy interest rate has significantly increased. From the external environment, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 75BP, and the inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread has been significantly relieved. Currently, the yield of long - term bonds has reached a high point this year. Under the dual effects of internal and external factors, the probability of a successful long - position strategy is relatively high [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Situation - In November, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest level since March 2024. Food prices turned from a decline of 2.9% last month to an increase of 0.2%, while non - food prices rose by 0.8% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months [2]. - Food prices "turning from negative to positive" were the core driving force. Fresh vegetable prices rose by 14.5% year - on - year, with the impact on the year - on - year increase of CPI increasing by about 0.49 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in pork prices narrowed to - 15.0%, and the prices of beef and mutton increased. Energy prices had a greater drag, with energy prices falling by 3.4% year - on - year [2]. - There was a structural differentiation in core CPI. On the industrial consumer goods side, the year - on - year increase in gold jewelry prices expanded to 58.4%, and clothing prices rose by 2.0%, but household appliance prices decreased. On the service side, although the demand for post - holiday travel declined, the prices of domestic services and dining out still maintained positive growth [2]. PPI Situation - In November, PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points. Production materials decreased by 2.4% year - on - year, and living materials decreased by 1.5% year - on - year. PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, maintaining positive growth for two consecutive months [2]. - Domestic policies and seasonal demand supported upstream prices. The start of "peak - winter power consumption" in November led to a surge in coal demand, and the prices of coal mining and washing and coal processing increased significantly month - on - month. The effects of comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition were evident, and the year - on - year decline in prices of some industries continued to narrow [2]. - Input factors showed a differentiated pattern. The increase in international non - ferrous metal prices drove up the prices of domestic non - ferrous metal mining and smelting industries, while the decline in international oil prices led to a decline in the prices of the oil and gas extraction and refined petroleum product industries [2]. - The seasonal decline in downstream demand for infrastructure restricted the overall ex - factory prices. The prices of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, reflecting the weakening of infrastructure demand. Most industries' ex - factory prices were still under significant pressure year - on - year, but non - ferrous metal industries performed well [2][3]. Foreign Trade Situation - In November, the total value of imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, turning from negative to positive compared with October. Imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, continuing the six - month growth trend. The trade structure continued to have the characteristics of "strong exports and stable imports" [3]. - Trade with the EU and Africa rebounded significantly, while the decline in exports to the US continued to expand. Exports to ASEAN maintained double - digit growth. Exports to the EU rebounded strongly, and exports to Africa had a high growth rate. Although the decline in exports to the US expanded, the drag on overall exports was offset by the growth of the EU and African markets [3]. - This month's unexpected export growth was mainly affected by the rebound in export growth to the EU and Africa. High - end manufacturing became the core driving force for the rebound. Exports of mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products increased significantly year - on - year, while the growth rates of labor - intensive products were still in the decline range [3].

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 报告正文 4、生产高频跟踪：工业生产维持弱势，建筑业开工边际改善 图 36: 上周, 高炉开工率延续回落 全国高炉开工率 (247家) === 2020 2019 2021 2022 2023 -2024 · 2025 96 85 80 75 70 65 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 资料来源: Wind、申万宏源研究 工业生产中，高炉开工延续回落，钢材表观消费也有下滑。 11月23日至11月29日，高炉开工率环 比-1.1%至81.1%，同比-0.8pct至-0.5%；上周（11月30日至12月06日），钢材表观消费环比-2.68%、同 比-2.4pct至-1.2%。钢材社会库存延续回落，环比-2.9%。 图 37: 上周, 钢材周表观消费有所回落 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 2021 2019 == 2020 = 2022 2023 2024 2025 1300 万吨 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 1 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 出口强在中游——11 月进出口数据点评 事 项 11 月我国以美元计算出口同比 5.9%，预期 3.8%，前值-1.1%；11 月以美元计 价进口同比 1.9%，预期 3%，前值 1.0%。 主要观点 核心观点： 1）11 月出口增速反弹超预期（较上月高 7 个点）有基数的影响（5 个点左右）， 也有需求韧性的支撑。一是 11 月我国制造业 PMI 新出口订单大幅修复且各行 业全面回升，二是出口边际增长动能有所恢复。9-11 月环比平均 1.1%，与历 史同期均值相近，Q3 出口月度环比均值仅有 0.4%（大幅低于过去十年同期平 均 1.4%）。 2）品类来看，出口强在机电（对应中游制造），弱在劳密。1-11 月，我国机电 产品出口累计同比 7.9%，2024 年为 7.4%，其中，"机电三样"（车、船、集成 电路）出口增速均在 15%以上。 3）往后看，①月度视角下，12 月基数抬升，或带来同比读数 2-3 个点的调整 压力。②季度视角下，领先指标显示外需环境稳健，电子链或继续助力增长。 ③半年至一年维度下，货币宽松累积效应驱动的稳定外需环境+机电出口景 气，或支撑出口 ...

来源：华创证券研究 7.出口价格增速转正，推动PPI超预期复苏 8.租金加速下降二手房下行预期或带来新一轮地产政策 2026年宏观脑洞开在哪儿 2018年以来，我们已经连续多次发布年度宏观脑洞报告，目的是在市场一致预期之外，提供更多发散的可能。一致性预期往往已映射到资产价格中，而对 一致性预期的偏离才是市场波动和博弈的空间所在。对于投资而言，应对的重要性远大于精准的预测。因此我们还是希望给出一些在一致性预期之外概率 较高的情景，主要内容如下： 1.美国通胀压力超预期, 美联储重启加息 2.欧元区债务风险放大 欧洲央行重新扩表 3.黄金价格转入持续调整 4.美国原油产量触顶回落，油金比触底回升 5.居民消费可能超预期 6.出口继续超预期 风险提示：地缘政治冲击；政策超预期变动。 ...