Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The polyolefin market is under pressure, with a divergence in the fundamentals of PP and PE. PP shows a dual increase in supply and demand, but there is a slight inventory build - up this week under the pressure of new production capacity. PE has weak supply and demand, and although there is inventory reduction this week, port inventory remains high. The cost side is mixed, with high inventory and cost support in a continuous game [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish. Short - term observation is recommended, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be awaited later. For glass, short - term there is still some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the overall trend is bearish. The PVC market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure, and the current market trades on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. Before the gas restriction in Iran, the weak reality will continue to be traded [8]. Natural Rubber - The supply in overseas production areas is expected to be strong during the peak season, and the domestic production is gradually decreasing. The demand is weakening in some northern regions. The market sentiment has improved, and subsequent attention should be paid to the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is generally loose, and the price driver is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds following the oil price. The supply - demand of styrene may remain in a tight balance, but the price driver is insufficient. EB12 can be shorted on rebounds [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6200 - 6800. For PTA, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4300 - 4800. For ethylene glycol, the price is under pressure. For short - fiber, the rebound space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand is in a loose pattern [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605, PP2601 and PP2605 have different price changes. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also show various trends. Spot prices of different varieties in different regions also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP have different changes in enterprise inventory, social inventory, and trade - related inventory. The start - up rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries also vary [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash have different price changes in different regions, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also change [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production remains at a high level, and the inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches. Glass production has changes in production lines, and the demand has short - term and long - term differences [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms and regions have corresponding changes, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also vary [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda supply is increasing, and the demand support is weak. The PVC supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices in different regions have changes, and the basis and regional spreads also vary [6]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increase. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream industries also have corresponding changes [7][8]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of natural rubber in different varieties and regions have changes, and the basis, month - to - month spreads also vary [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in different countries has changes, and the start - up rates of tire industries and the import and export volumes also vary [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in different forms and regions have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and import profits also vary [12]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports change, and the start - up rates of different industries in the industrial chain also vary [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials, PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester products have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and processing fees also vary [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of different products in the polyester industry chain have corresponding changes, and the start - up rates of different industries also vary [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly, but its basis and processing fee continued to be weak. Domestic production capacity utilization of pure benzene has bottomed out and rebounded, with the impact of previous sanctions on refinery operations easing, and the pressure of incoming shipments increasing intermittently. Downstream demand remained weak, with styrene in concentrated maintenance, phenol production declining again, CPL production at a low level, and adipic acid production rebounding [2]. - Styrene ports continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory, with short - term low - level production capacity utilization, and maintenance only decreasing at the end of November. EB factory inventory further decreased, and port inventory began to decline. However, attention should be paid to downstream demand, as EPS production capacity utilization dropped rapidly, ABS and PS production capacity utilization remained low, and the inventory of the three major hard plastics only slightly decreased from high levels [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and inter - period spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [7][10]. - Figures related to EB basis and inter - period spreads include the EB main contract basis and the styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [15][18]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures related to production profits and spreads include styrene non - integrated production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea spread, naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, pure benzene import profit, and styrene import profit [21][24][33]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Production Capacity Utilization - For pure benzene, figures show the East China port inventory and production capacity utilization [39]. - For styrene, figures cover the East China port inventory, production capacity utilization, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [42][44]. 4. Styrene Downstream Production Capacity Utilization and Production Profits - Figures display the production capacity utilization and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [52][53][57]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Production Capacity Utilization and Production Profits - Figures show the production capacity utilization and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products [60][68][73]. Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy provided [3]. - Basis and Inter - period: Consider a long - short spread strategy for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices and a short - long spread strategy for BZ2603 - BZ2605 at high prices [3]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [3].

Report Overview - Report Name: Jinxin Futures Daily - Date: November 11, 2025 - Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term upward trend of soda ash futures is driven by supply disruptions, but the long - term pattern of high inventory and new capacity release in the soda ash industry remains unchanged. For operation, pay attention to device restart and new capacity commissioning progress, and avoid blind chasing of highs [3][4][5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to continue high - level oscillatory upward movement. Gold shows signs of rising again and low - buying for long positions can be considered. Iron ore may enter a technical short - position trend and short on rebounds is recommended. Glass is expected to be oscillatory and bearish. Eggs present a long - position opportunity due to seasonal supply tightness. Pulp futures show an oscillatory rebound trend [8][13][15][19][22][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - On the afternoon of November 10, the soda ash futures 2601 contract closed at 1,226 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.49% from the previous trading day, with the highest intraday reaching 1,230 yuan/ton and the trading volume increasing to over 1.54 million lots [3]. - The core driving force for the rise comes from supply - side disruptions, including production cuts by some enterprises and postponed new capacity commissioning. Low heavy - alkali inventory and the strengthening of glass futures also support the price. However, the long - term situation of high inventory and new capacity release in the soda ash industry remains, and downstream glass demand is still dragged by the real - estate sector [3][4]. - Institutions suggest paying attention to device restart and new capacity commissioning progress, not blindly chasing highs, and short - term long - position opportunities can be grasped near the 1,200 yuan/ton mark [5]. Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index slowly oscillated upward and closed with a small positive line. Core CPI growth expanded and the price level stabilized and rebounded. The U.S. Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillatory upward movement [8]. Gold - After a period of adjustment, gold shows signs of rising again, and low - buying for long positions can be considered [13]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation has further intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real - estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it has broken through an important support level and may enter a technical short - position trend, so short on rebounds is recommended [15][16]. Glass - The daily melting volume has little change, and the inventory has decreased this week. The subsequent main drivers lie in policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance policies. Technically, it broke through the support level today and is expected to be oscillatory and bearish [19]. Eggs - As the temperature drops, laying hens in the main egg - producing areas in the north will enter the winter egg - laying off - season, and those in the south will gradually enter the early stage of the winter egg - laying off - season. The monthly total supply of commercial poultry eggs will stop increasing and start to decline, and the seasonal supply shortage will gradually become prominent. Long - position opportunities can be grasped [22]. Pulp - In October, the pulp import volume decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory showed a downward trend, but the market supply is still abundant. The sporadic publication bidding of cultural paper has boosted market confidence, but the social demand is weak, and the paper mill's gross profit continues to decline. The pulp futures have shown an oscillatory rebound trend recently [26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price range - bound. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, prices are expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - term rebounds should be treated as opportunities to go short. For glass, short - term long opportunities can be seized on dips, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [3]. Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. Before Iranian gas restrictions, the weak reality will continue to be priced in [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but November's supply - demand is expected to be loose. PTA is expected to be in a tight - balance in the short - term but loose in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to expected high inventory accumulation. Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets also face supply - demand challenges [8]. Polyolefins - Polypropylene and polyethylene both show increasing supply and demand, but the market still faces pressure from new capacity and supply increases [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand. PVC is in an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight - balance, but cost support is insufficient [14]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase. The whole - latex basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton, a 35.97% rise [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a 17.86% decline [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons, a 5.45% drop. China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a 3.57% increase [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton, a 0.91% decline [3]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda Ash 2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase [3]. - **Production Volumes**: Soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89% [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a 2.54% increase [3]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2,112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% to 38.641% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a 0.4% increase [8]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX was 698 dollars/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East - China spot price rose 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase [8]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory increased by 7.5% to 56.2 million tons [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 closed at 6,802 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 49.0 million tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: SH2601 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2,331 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decline [13]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3% [13]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory increased by 18.9% to 22.3 million tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: CFR China pure benzene was 664 dollars/ton, up 0.2% [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, with supply pressure rising [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Caprolactam operating rate remained unchanged at 86.1% [14].

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report - **Fats and Oils Industry**: The market has a bearish outlook on Malaysian palm oil inventory, and there is pressure for further decline in the external palm oil market. The domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the basis price may fluctuate within a certain range [1]. - **Sugar Industry**: The global sugar supply is abundant, and the raw sugar price remains weak. The domestic sugar market is affected by import quotas and may experience weak price fluctuations [3]. - **Pig Industry**: The pig price is expected to be moderately strong in November, and the market has entered a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and be cautiously bullish on single - side operations [5]. - **Cotton Industry**: The short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range due to cost support and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Corn Industry**: The short - term corn supply is relatively stable, and the price may adjust in a range. It will be weak when the selling pressure emerges [8]. - **Meal Industry**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but there is strong cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg supply pressure remains, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, soybean oil prices were stable, palm oil prices had minor fluctuations, and rapeseed oil prices increased slightly [1]. - **Market Situation**: Malaysian palm oil production increased in October, and the market has a bearish view on its inventory. The domestic soybean oil supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak [1]. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, sugar futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices in some regions changed. The raw sugar price is at a five - year low [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased [3]. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices in some regions increased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The market's reluctance to sell increased, and the planned November slaughter volume will slow down, which may support the pig price [5]. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Industrial and commercial inventories increased, and textile exports decreased [7]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, corn futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices in some regions increased [8]. - **Market Situation**: The selling pressure of corn is expected to increase, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing [8]. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean prices had minor fluctuations [12]. - **Market Situation**: The demand for US soybeans is not strong, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but there is cost support [12]. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, egg futures prices changed, and spot prices increased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of eggs is under pressure, and the demand is average [15].

黑色金属周报-钢材 产销双降 品种结构分化 2025年11月10日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL:010-82292661 目录 1 2 产销双降 品种结构分化 上周国内钢材现货价格震荡偏弱，截至周五，华东上海螺纹3160元（-40）；上海热卷3260元 （-90）。 11月6日，五大品种钢材整体产量降18.55吨，五大品种库存厂库环比降8.09吨，社库降2.08 吨。表观需866.91万吨，环比降49.51万吨。截至11月7日，长流程现货端，华东螺纹长流程现金 含税成本3176元，点对点利润-16元左右，热卷长流程现金含税利润33.5元左右。电炉端，华东平 电电炉成本在3320元左右，谷电成本在3177左右，华东螺纹平电利润-220元左右，谷电利润-77元。 废钢端，截止11月6日，张家港废钢价格2170元/吨，环比回升10元/吨。数据显示，89家独立 电弧炉企业产能利用率34.1%，环比提升0.5个百分点；255家样本钢厂日耗51万吨，环比下降0.21 万吨；其中，132家长流程钢厂日耗24.3万吨/天，环比下降0.66万吨；短流程日耗17吨 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Market has a bearish outlook on Malaysian palm oil inventory, putting downward pressure on external palm oil prices. The Dalian palm oil is in a rebound phase after an over - decline, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance in the 8800 - 8900 yuan range. - China will suspend retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products starting from the 10th, but US soybeans still face a 13% tariff, making them relatively expensive. There is no evidence of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans, so CBOT soybeans lack the momentum to rise continuously. US biodiesel policy uncertainty affects the industrial use of US soybean oil, causing CBOT soybean oil to trade in a narrow range. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, and the basis price may fluctuate within a certain range [1]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is abundant, causing the raw sugar price to remain weak and reach a five - year low. The domestic sugar market is less affected by the decline due to import quotas. There is an expectation of a delayed start of the sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, and the market consumption is mainly on - demand, with general trading volume. The sugar price is expected to move weakly in a volatile manner [3]. Pork - The market's reluctance to sell and the increase in secondary fattening have supported the pig price to be slightly stronger. According to the planned November slaughter volume, the overall slaughter progress will slow down, which may boost the November pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and be cautiously bullish on single - side operations [5]. Cotton - The upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated due to cost differences between northern and southern Xinjiang and pre - hedging of some new cotton. There is cost support at the lower level. The downstream demand is weak, but the finished - product inventory pressure is not large, and textile mills have a rigid demand for cotton. In the short term, the cotton price may trade in a range [7]. Corn - As the early high - moisture corn is released and the weather improves, farmers' willingness to sell is price - sensitive. Due to snow and transportation issues in the Northeast and price support in North China, the supply volume has decreased, and the price has rebounded locally. In November, there is still selling pressure from the concentrated supply of corn, but there is also cost and purchase - storage policy support. The demand side is cautious, and the corn price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may weaken when the selling pressure emerges [8]. Meal - The demand for US soybeans is not well - supported due to the 13% tariff, and it is difficult for US soybeans to continue rising. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but there is strong cost support. The near - term shipping schedule has a negative crushing margin, and there is a 7.5 million - ton supply gap from November to January. The soybean meal price is expected to trade in a range [12]. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens in November is expected to remain relatively stable at a high level, and the egg supply pressure persists. The terminal market demand is general, and the egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [15]. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8390 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8188 yuan, and the basis was 206 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69% to 26014 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on November 7 was 8560 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8660 yuan, and the basis was - 100 yuan. The盘面 import cost was 9102.5 yuan, and the import profit was - 411 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on November 7 was 9800 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI601 was 9533 yuan, and the basis was 267 yuan [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of SR2601 was 5457 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of SR2605 was 5397 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.13 cents/pound, down 0.63% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and the basis was 383 yuan, up 5.80%. The spot price in Kunming was 5650 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the basis was 253 yuan, down 6.99% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60% [3]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of LH2605 was 12005 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of LH2601 was 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 140 yuan, down 64.71% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 11950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Shandong was 12050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Sichuan was 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 162310, up 1.03%. The weekly white - striped pork price was 0 yuan, down 100%. The weekly piglet price was 17 yuan/kg, down 15% [5]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of CF2605 was 13590 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of CF2601 was 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.48 cents/pound, down 1.44% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton was 14678 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The CC Index: 3128B was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 13087 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 4.3%. The import volume was 10 million tons, up 42.9%. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year was - 25% [7]. Corn - **Corn**: On November 7, the price of C2601 was 2149 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was 11 yuan, up 375%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 92 yuan, down 2.22%. The import profit was 214 yuan, up 9.49% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2462 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The basis was 48 yuan, up 17.07%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan, down 2.08% [8]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3058 yuan, down 0.33%. The basis was 2 yuan, up 125%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 43 yuan, up 295.5% [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2540 yuan, down 0.39%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2539 yuan, down 0.39%. The basis was 11 yuan, unchanged. The Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 757 yuan, up 3.27% [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of JD12 was 3219 yuan/500KG, down 0.25%. The price of JD01 was 3391 yuan/500KG, up 0.15%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, down 8.18% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - laying hen farm price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 3.12%. The basis was - 196 yuan/500KG, up 33.66% [15]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged. The price of culled chickens was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 1.95%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.38, up 1.28%. The breeding profit was - 24.44 yuan/feather, up 6.36% [15].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: November 9, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber is volatile, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The production capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased. In the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, without chasing short positions. The nr - br spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][4]. - Butadiene is in a weak operating state. In the short term, the low absolute price drives downstream replenishment, leading to improved trading and price stabilization. In the medium - long term, supply pressure remains the primary contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under significant pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Zhenhua New Materials were shut down for maintenance, while the butadiene rubber plant of Sichuan Petrochemical restarted. The production capacity utilization rate further declined. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31%, and the production capacity utilization rate was 66.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88 percentage points. It is expected that Yangzi Petrochemical's butadiene rubber plant will restart in the next cycle, and the Maoming butadiene plant and Zhejiang Transfar's 120,000 - ton/year rare - earth butadiene rubber plant are scheduled for maintenance at the end of November and in December respectively [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly during the cycle. It is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will remain stable with a slight downward trend in the next cycle. The production of most enterprises will remain stable to meet order demands, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall production capacity utilization rate. In terms of alternative demand, the current spread between the nr - br main contracts remains high, and the alternative demand also remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15%. During the cycle, the supply of raw material butadiene was sufficient, and the negotiation focus continued to decline. Under the continuous negative drag of the cost side, industry players generally had a clear expectation of the continuous decline of the recent market. Downstream price - pressing procurement led to a significant decline in the negotiation focus of private resources. At the same time, the output was affected by the maintenance of some production enterprises, the circulating supply of goods was limited, resulting in the spot offer being significantly higher than that of private resources, and the sales performance was blocked. The inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both decreased [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,500 - 10,400 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support for the lower - end valuation to the nr - br spread providing support for the lower - end valuation. For the upper - end valuation, 10,300 - 10,400 yuan/ton on the futures market may be the high point of the fundamental upper - end valuation. When the main contract BR2501 has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (the single - month holding cost is around 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity of holding spot and shorting futures on the market, and hedging positions will gradually increase the pressure on the upside space of the futures market [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - In the current cycle (from October 31 to November 6, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 109,200 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 4.85%. During the week, the plants of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Guangzhou Petrochemical, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical remained shut down, but the plants of Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Sichuan Petrochemical resumed production, resulting in a continuous increase in output. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 112,500 tons, continuing to increase from the current cycle. There are no new plant shutdown and maintenance plans in the next cycle, and the previously restarted plants will stably release output, leading to a continuous recovery of the output of domestic operating plants. At the same time, pay close attention to the output of Guangxi Petrochemical [6]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, as butadiene plants undergo maintenance in November, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber procurement will decrease. In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only be maintained at a constant level, with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the rigid demand for butadiene procurement remains unchanged [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (from October 30 to November 6, 2025), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples fluctuated slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.67% from last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased by 3.71% month - on - month compared with last week. During the cycle, some plants resumed production, and at the same time, the significant decline in the market led to a slowdown in the trading rhythm, resulting in inventory accumulation for some suppliers. The inventory of sample ports decreased by 6.88% month - on - month compared with last week. Although there were imported vessels arriving at the port during the week, the normal consumption of downstream raw material inventories led to a decrease in the inventory of sample ports. Although the short - term tradable supply is limited, the import volume remains high, and merchants' sentiment remains cautious. Pay attention to future inventory changes [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel are under pressure to oscillate at a low level due to the game between high smelting inventory accumulation and Indonesian risks. There is support below the nickel price while the inventory is accumulating at a high level, and the long - term volatility may increase [1]. - The stainless - steel fundamentals lack upward drivers, and the steel price oscillates at a low level. The overall fundamentals still face pressure, and it is expected to be in a bottom - grinding state [2]. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Nickel Fundamentals - Refined nickel's internal and external explicit inventories are accumulating again, and the market expects a slowdown in implicit restocking. The supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak. The proportion of using ferronickel to replace iron plates in the nickel alloy end has increased, and the production of pure nickel is expected to increase. The expected increase in low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term still restricts the upward elasticity of Shanghai nickel [1]. - Although the fundamentals of non - standard nickel have improved marginally, the conversion of refined nickel to non - standard nickel production has not yet resolved the inventory accumulation contradiction of refined nickel [1]. - The uncertainty of Indonesia's supply governance policy makes short - term sellers lack confidence. The nickel ore premium has stabilized and even slightly increased, strengthening the support for the bottom of the nickel ore price [1]. Stainless - Steel Fundamentals - The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers. The peak season is not prosperous, and it is gradually entering the off - season. The post - real - estate cycle consumption is weak, and the effectiveness of terminal subsidy policies is decreasing. The apparent consumption growth rate has slightly declined, and inventory accumulation mainly occurs in the factory warehouse. The overall fundamentals are under pressure [2]. - The supply elasticity is sufficient, and there is limited upward imagination space for stainless steel. The estimated supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus, and the cost has decreased slightly. The downward space is also limited [2]. Inventory Tracking - On November 7, China's 27 - warehouse social inventory of refined nickel increased by 1934 tons to 50,680 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1246 tons to 32,634 tons, the spot inventory increased by 988 tons to 14,276 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 300 tons to 3770 tons. The LME nickel inventory increased by 1002 tons to 253,104 tons [3]. - On November 7, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by - 1, + 8, and 0 month - on - month to 4, 9, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory on November 7 changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.4 days, and the ternary material inventory on November 6 changed by - 0.2 month - on - month to 6.9 days [4]. - On October 31, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 29,564 tons, with a steady and slight increase month - on - month and a 27% year - on - year increase. In October, the SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a 9% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month increase. On November 6, the SMM stainless - steel social inventory remained stable with a slight decrease to 946,000 tons, the Steel Union's stainless - steel social total inventory was 1.034 million tons, with a 0.29% week - on - week increase, and the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 639,500 tons, with a 1.90% week - on - week decrease [4]. Market News - On September 12, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month [5]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [6]. - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees until 2025 [6]. - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be passed before November 15 this year. According to the transition clause, the 2026 RKAB approved by the minister or governor before the entry into force of this ministerial order can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31, 2026 [6]. - US President Trump claimed on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [6]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for projects producing restricted products through the OSS platform [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the oilseed market, Sino-US trade relaxation leads to China's plan to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans, causing a rebound in US soybean prices and cost - driven support for soybean meal prices. However, sufficient domestic port soybean inventories and weak demand from the aquaculture industry limit the upside of soybean meal prices. The rapeseed meal market has a generally loose supply - demand situation, with uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports supporting prices, while the end of the aquaculture demand peak season weakens demand support [7]. - For the oil market, US soybean price rebounds support soybean oil prices, but high oil mill operating rates, increasing inventory, and falling crude oil prices put pressure on soybean oil prices. Palm oil has significant supply pressure due to high production in major producing areas and weak demand. Canola oil has a tightening supply due to uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports and falling domestic rapeseed arrivals, with its decline being relatively small [39][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal - **Price Influencing Factors**: US soybean price rebounds due to Sino - US trade relaxation, supporting soybean meal prices. However, sufficient domestic port soybean inventories and weak demand from the loss - making aquaculture industry limit price increases [7]. - **Profit and Supply**: Oil mill crushing profits need to be repaired, and mills have a strong willingness to support prices. But high domestic port soybean inventories create supply pressure [7]. 2. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall supply - demand is loose, with limited rapeseed meal crushing volume. The low - level soybean - rapeseed meal price difference suppresses substitution demand [7]. - **Price Support**: Uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports support prices, while the end of the aquaculture demand peak season weakens demand support [7]. 3. Soybean Oil - **Positive Factors**: The rebound of US soybean futures prices supports soybean oil futures prices [39]. - **Negative Factors**: High oil mill operating rates, the psychology of supporting soybean meal and selling off soybean oil, increasing inventory, and falling crude oil prices put pressure on soybean oil prices [39]. 4. Palm Oil - **Supply**: High production in Indonesia and Malaysia leads to sufficient inventory and significant supply pressure [39]. - **Demand**: Weak demand from India and potential delays in Indonesia's B50 plan, along with falling international oil prices and a strong US dollar, weaken market attractiveness [39]. 5. Canola Oil - **Supply**: Uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports and low domestic rapeseed arrivals lead to a tightening supply and continuous inventory reduction [42]. - **Price Movement**: It follows the decline of other oils in the short term, but its decline is smaller due to supply concerns and inventory reduction, while high domestic inventory and the decline of soybean and palm oils limit its rebound [42].