Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, domestic PVC plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, with plans for plants in Shanxi Yushe, Yanhu Haina, and Ordos to shut down, expected to keep the capacity utilization rate on a downward trend. Although plants like Wanhua, Bohua, and Gansu Yaowang are scheduled to start production, future policies to push out backward production capacity may ease supply pressure. - It's the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the Indian market demand is constrained by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July, and the BIS certification in India has been extended to mid - December. - The impact of power restrictions in Inner Mongolia on calcium carbide has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed operation. The US has lifted restrictions on ethane exports to China, which may lead to a decrease in the cost of the ethylene - based method. - In the short term, the expectation of production capacity exit and real - estate support policies gives room for a premium on the main futures contract, but the futures price is suppressed by weak real - world demand and costs. Technically, the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 4885 and the resistance around 5000 [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4963 yuan/ton, a increase of 69 yuan; the trading volume was 974,935 lots, an increase of 240,750 lots; the open interest was 967,373 lots, an increase of 32,878 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 16,621 lots, an increase of 42,834 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4792.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4841.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 173 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2631.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 184 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 188 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65%; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.8%, a decrease of 0.17%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 68.54%, a decrease of 1.92%. The total social inventory of PVC was 37.31 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons; the inventory in East China was 33.03 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons; the inventory in South China was 4.28 million tons, an increase of 0.04 million tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of newly started housing area was 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, an increase of 47.0449 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, an increase of 428.168 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 13.71%, an increase of 0.77%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.63%, an increase of 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of PVC was 19.17%, an increase of 0.65% [3]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission estimates that China's GDP in 2025 will be around 140 trillion yuan. - According to Longzhong Information, on July 9, the cash - remittance price of PVCSG5 in East China warehouses increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4760 - 4860 yuan/ton. - From June 28 to July 4, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous period. V2509 rose 1.58% to close at 4963 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, affected by the shutdown and maintenance of plants such as Ningxia Yinglite and Inner Mongolia Sanlian, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.65% to 77.44%. On the demand side, last week, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.1% to 42.88%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 0.94% to 39.5%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.25% to 34.75%. In terms of inventory, last week, the commercial inventory of PP decreased by 0.09% to 785,100 tons, at a neutral level compared with the same period in the past three years. - As of July 3, the new sample statistics of Longzhong's social inventory increased by 2.89% to 5.918 million tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 37.66% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - International crude oil prices are affected by factors such as the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, OPEC+ production increases, and Trump's tariff policies, showing a weak performance on the day but still supported by fundamentals. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the current low inventory provides strong support. The effectiveness of PX in the future depends on unexpected factors. PTA is facing new device commissions in the third quarter, with a time mismatch with PX. PTA demand is weakening due to factors such as reduced production by polyester factories, and the inventory relative value is at a five - year high, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak situation. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to price drops. PTA is still supported without significant polyester production cuts, but may weaken if production cuts expand. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain is tilting towards raw materials. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 8, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures was $68.33 per barrel, up 0.59%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $70.15 per barrel, up 0.82%. On July 7, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577 per ton, down 0.30%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $715.5 per ton, down 0.14%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $841.67 per ton, up 0.24% [1] - **PTA**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,710 yuan per ton, unchanged; the settlement price was 4,710 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; the settlement price was 4,786 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,798 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,805 yuan per ton, up 0.31%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $635 per ton on July 7, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 76 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the basis was 95 yuan per ton, an increase of 15 yuan [1] - **PX**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.18%; the settlement price was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.33%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of PX was 6,725 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $848 per ton, up 0.71%; the spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $817 per ton on July 7, up 0.25%. The PXN spread was $264.67 per ton on July 7, up 1.44%; the PX - MX spread was $126.17 per ton on July 7, up 2.44%. The basis was 29 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - **PR**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,866 yuan per ton, down 0.10%; the settlement price was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 5,922 yuan per ton, down 0.64%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08%; in the South China market, it was 6,000 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The basis in the East China market was 79 yuan per ton, an increase of 1 yuan; in the South China market, it was 134 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On July 8, 2025, the CCFEI price indices of polyester fibers such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D remained unchanged. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,700 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, down 0.26%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [2] Operating Conditions - On July 8, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.98%, 80.59%, 87.30%, 71.93%, and 61.22% respectively. The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber decreased by 7 and 6 percentage points respectively, while that of polyester chips increased by 4 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical upgrades for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,710 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the daily trading volume being 850,100 lots. PX prices are in a consolidation phase, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,696 yuan per ton (up 0.33%), and the daily trading volume being 180,100 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,866 yuan per ton (down 0.03%), and the daily trading volume being 32,800 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The Iranian methanol plants are further resuming production, leading to an increase in overseas supply. The port basis is weak, and there is still a large pressure of arrivals in July. There are intentions to conduct maintenance on externally - purchased MTO units in late July, and the port is currently in an inventory - building cycle. However, there are expectations of winter maintenance of overseas natural gas - based methanol plants and the commissioning of externally - purchased methanol MTO units in the fourth quarter, presenting a situation of weak current conditions but strong future expectations. In the inland area, the operation rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, but the traditional downstream shows sufficient resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol plants is under no pressure [2] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - Includes multiple figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China, and import spreads (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [26][27][28] 3. Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory - Relevant figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the operation rate of MTO/P (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland plants, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated units) [34][35][37] 4. Regional Price Spreads - Figures illustrate regional price spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [39][46][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products like formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [50][58] Market Data Inland Area - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged). The production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 690 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton). Inland methanol prices: Inner Mongolia North Line is 1985 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), with a basis of 193 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan/ton); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2020 yuan/ton (unchanged); Linyi in Shandong is 2295 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton), with a basis of 103 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton); Henan is 2175 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 17 yuan/ton (down 23 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2185 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 53 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton). The inventory of inland plants is 352,280 tons (up 10,730 tons), and the inventory of plants in the Northwest is 223,500 tons (up 18,000 tons). The pending orders of inland plants are 233,250 tons (down 7,450 tons), and those of plants in the Northwest are 110,400 tons (down 9,100 tons) [1] Port Area - Methanol in Taicang is 2425 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), with a basis of 33 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton); CFR China is 282 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton), and the import spread in East China is - 9 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). Methanol in Changzhou is 2420 yuan/ton; methanol in Guangdong is 2435 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), with a basis of 43 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan/ton). The total port inventory is 673,660 tons (up 3,160 tons), the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 333,000 tons (down 23,500 tons), the inventory in Zhejiang ports is 176,500 tons (up 37,000 tons), and the inventory in Guangdong ports is 120,500 tons (down 13,500 tons). The operation rate of downstream MTO is 84.60% (down 2.19%) [2] Regional Price Spreads - The spread of Lubei - Northwest - 280 is - 25 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread of Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 110 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan/ton); the spread of Taicang - Lunan - 250 is - 120 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton); the spread of Lunan - Taicang - 100 is - 230 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton); the spread of Guangdong - East China - 180 is - 170 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton); the spread of East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 is - 55 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton) [2] Strategy - For the 9 - 1 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread is high [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - PTA: Last week, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent. The current market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and social inventory is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will still fluctuate and adjust following the cost side. After the rapid decline of the spot basis, the bottom - supporting effect may appear. In the short term, the PTA drive is weak, and the price will follow the cost fluctuation. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting results and polyester load fluctuations [5][6]. - MEG: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level, and the basis weakened slightly. The ethylene glycol supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders in the market to hold goods is poor. Due to the weakening supply - demand and the polyester off - season, the ethylene glycol disk is mainly under pressure. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price will be mainly sorted in a low range. Subsequently, pay attention to the return efficiency of the supply side and the change of the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - PTA: - Fundamental: In July, there is not much maintenance, and there is an expectation of the commissioning of the Sanfangxiang PTA device. The supply has increased year - on - year, while the terminal demand is in the off - season atmosphere. The inventory pressure of polyester factories has accumulated, and there is a downward expectation for polyester, which is negative for the PTA spot market. Recently, the spot market negotiation has been relatively light, and the basis is weak. It is expected that the short - term PTA drive is weak, and the price will follow the cost fluctuation. [6] - Basis: The spot price is 4790, the basis of the 09 contract is 80, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - MEG: - Fundamental: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level, and the basis weakened slightly. The ethylene glycol supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders in the market to hold goods is poor. Due to the weakening supply - demand and the polyester off - season, the ethylene glycol disk is mainly under pressure. [7] - Basis: The spot price is 4347, the basis of the 09 contract is 68, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.2 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared with the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position is increasing, which is bearish [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Influencing factors: - Bullish: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [8]. - Bearish: Iran confirmed a cease - fire. From the demand side, it is the end of the rush - to - export period and the domestic demand off - season, and the trend of weakening terminal demand is certain. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and after the disk rebounds, pay attention to the upper resistance level [9][10]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory changes [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and inventory changes [12]. - Price Data: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products from July 4 to July 7, 2025, as well as the changes in processing fees and profits [13]. - Inventory Analysis: It shows the inventory changes of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products from 2021 to 2025 [42][44][51]. - Operating Rate: It shows the operating rate changes of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [53][55][57][59]. - Profit: It shows the profit changes of PTA, MEG, polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament from 2022 to 2025 [61][64][66][68][69][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The reports present the latest data on various futures, including price differences, spreads, ratios, and related economic indicators, providing investors with information for market analysis and decision - making [1][2][4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Spread - **Price Differences**: The latest values of IF, IH, IC, and IM price differences range from - 23.24 to - 200.00, with changes from - 0.50 to 11.42 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 5.30% to 32.70% [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: For IF, IH, IC, and IM inter - period spreads, the latest values range from - 8.80 to - 329.80, with changes from - 5.00 to 3.20 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 8.60% to 61.30% [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., have the latest values from 1.4485 to 2.1619, with changes from - 0.0167 to - 0.0016 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 38.60% to 71.30% [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: The latest basis values of TS, TF, T, and TL range from 0.0000 to 1.8885, with changes from - 0.0260 to 0.1426 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 7.60% to 65.10% [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL have the latest values from - 0.2340 to 0.2800, with changes from - 0.0400 to 0.0200 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 8.00% to 19.80% [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., have the latest values from - 18.6920 to - 0.0010, and historical percentiles from 1.30% to 2.10% [2] 3. Precious Metals Spot and Futures - **Spot Prices**: COMEX silver rose 0.68% to 37.04 dollars per ounce, London gold rose 0.33% to 3336.94 dollars per ounce, etc. [5] - **Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold fell 0.97% to 3336.00 dollars per ounce, AU2508 fell 0.54% to 777.06 yuan per gram, etc. [6] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.49, with a historical percentile of 0.80%, and silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 34, with a historical percentile of 27.30% [4] - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio was 90.06, down 1.64% [4] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.2% to 4.35%, and the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 96.99 [4] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased 16.25% to 21456 kilograms, and COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.71% to 36785583 ounces [4] 4. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe shipping quotes vary, with Maersk down 5.13% to 2978 dollars per FEU and CMA CGM up 11.40% to 4085 dollars per FEU [7] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) rose 9.61% to 2123.24, and SCFIS (US West route) fell 22.28% to 1619.19 [7] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2508 (main contract) fell 2.48% to 1849.9, and the basis (main contract) rose 33.21% to 822.2 [7] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3266.65 million TEU, and Shanghai's port punctuality rate rose 46.45% to 42.50 [7] 5. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information - **Overseas Data**: Eurozone's comprehensive PMI rose 0.80% to 50.60, and the US manufacturing PMI index rose 1.03% to 49.00 [7][9] - **Domestic Data**: China's June foreign exchange reserves, iron ore shipments, and other data are to be released, and some data such as SMM electrolytic copper social inventory are expected to be updated [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, with a mid - term bearish outlook due to OPEC's production increase and potential post - peak season surplus [1][3]. - The asphalt market is likely to have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with a high cracking spread [4][5]. - The liquefied petroleum gas market is expected to be weak [7][8]. - The natural gas market in the US may see price increases, while the European market is expected to oscillate [9]. - The fuel oil market suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and attention should be paid to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [10][11]. - The PX, PTA, and short - fiber markets are expected to have short - term oscillatory consolidation [12][13][17]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be weakly oscillatory [15][16]. - The bottle - grade polyester chip market is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [19][21]. - The styrene market is expected to have high - level oscillations [21][24]. - The plastic PP market should be treated with a mid - short - term bearish mindset [24][25]. - The PVC market has a long - term oversupply pattern, while the caustic soda market is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [25][28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate or be weakly adjusted [30][33]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [35][36]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [38][39]. - The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [40][41]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a possible supply reduction due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance [43][44]. - The offset - printing paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [45][46]. - The log market suggests a wait - and - see approach, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [46][48]. - The pulp market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the SP main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [49][51]. - The natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber markets suggest short - selling opportunities for the RU main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the BR main 08 contract and holding specific arbitrage positions [54][55]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Independence Day holiday. Brent2509 contract was at $68.30, down $0.50/barrel, a - 0.73% change. China INE crude futures' main contract 2508 rose 2.7 to 506.4 yuan/barrel and fell 5.2 to 501.2 yuan/barrel in the night session. The Brent main - secondary spread was $1.11/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: Israel - Hamas indirect cease - fire talks were fruitless. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil in Asia by $1/barrel [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC's accelerated production increase in August strengthens the expectation of a surplus in the far - month. The near - term market is in a tight - balance pattern, but the mid - term outlook is bearish [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory thinking for unilateral trading, mid - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait - and - see for options [3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3573 points (- 0.42%) in the night session, and BU2512 closed at 3380 points (- 0.32%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions varied [4]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different markets were stable. Rainfall affected demand, and refinery inventories were at a medium - low level [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is expected to oscillate. The near - term supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to rebound; wait - and - see for options [7]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4182 (+ 0.4%) in the night session, and PG2509 closed at 4083 (- 0.61%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions were reported [7]. - **Related News**: The northern civilian market was stable with minor fluctuations, and the southern market was mostly stable with some weakness [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply decreased, but demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical sectors. The market is expected to be weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak for unilateral trading [9]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 33.469 (- 0.45%), HH closed at 3.409 (+ 0%), and JKM closed at 12.26 (+ 0%) [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, but demand was strong, and LNG exports increased. The European market was affected by supply, demand, and weather factors [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for HH unilateral trading, oscillatory for TTF unilateral trading [10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2951 (- 0.87%) in the night session, and LU09 closed at 3627 (- 0.25%) in the night session. Singapore paper - cargo market spreads were reported [10]. - **Related News**: India HPCL tendered to sell high - sulfur fuel oil, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts declined, and low - sulfur supply increased. Demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in some regions was strong [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [11][12]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6672 (- 1.01%) on Friday and 6678 (+ 0.09%) in the night session. Spot prices and PXN were reported [12]. - **Related News**: China's PX and PTA operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: PX social inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [13]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (- 0.76%) on Friday and 4702 (- 0.17%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: China's PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis declined, the supply was stable, and the downstream demand was weak, leading to an expected inventory build - up [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4277 (- 0.26%) on Friday and 4292 (+ 0.35%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [15]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of ethylene glycol changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Foreign device outages affected supply. The port inventory is low, but there is an expected inventory build - up in August - September. The downstream demand is weak [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weakly oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [17]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6514 (- 0.76%) during the day on Friday and 6530 (+ 0.25%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [17]. - **Related News**: China's short - fiber operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [17][18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber plants reduced production. The processing margin expanded, but the downstream demand was weak [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; short PTA and long PF for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [18]. Bottle - Grade Polyester Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 0.41%) on Friday and 5864 (- 0.10%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [19]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of bottle - grade polyester chips decreased. The export quotes of some factories were adjusted [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing margin strengthened, and some plants planned to reduce production. It is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (+ 0.59%) during the day on Friday and 7393 (+ 0.72%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [21][23]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of styrene and its downstream products changed [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of pure benzene is expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply increased, and downstream demand was weak. The price is mainly guided by the cost side [23][24]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillations for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [24]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices were mainly stable, and PP market prices in different regions were adjusted [24][25]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratios of PE and PP changed [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is a large production capacity release pressure in the third quarter, and the terminal demand is weak. The strategy is to sell on rallies [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mid - short - term bearish for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices were slightly adjusted, and caustic soda spot prices were stable in some regions and decreased in others [25][28]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Caustic soda inventory is low, and it is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish for PVC in the mid - term; strongly oscillatory for caustic soda in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1174 (- 0.8%) and remained unchanged in the night session. Spot prices changed [30][31]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, production decreased, and profits were negative [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market has a pattern of oversupply. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory or weakly adjusted for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [34]. Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1026 (- 1.25%) and 1029 (+ 0.29%) in the night session. Spot prices changed [35]. - **Related News**: Glass production and inventory changed. The profit of different fuel - based glass production varied [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the rise - fall or oscillation of glass prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures market oscillated and closed at 2401 (- 0.58%). Spot prices in different regions were reported [38]. - **Related News**: The MTO device utilization rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International device operating rates increased, import is expected to recover, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options [39][40]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures rose and then fell, closing at 1735 (+ 0.12%). Spot prices were slightly increased [41]. - **Related News**: Urea daily production and operating rate increased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to export policies [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [41][43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices were stable in the mainstream and increased locally [44]. - **Related News**: The production, inventory, and shipment of corrugated paper changed. The price of waste yellow - board paper was stable [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a weak pattern. Supply may decrease due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance, and demand is weak [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report. Offset - Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Offset - printing paper prices were mostly stable, and some local prices decreased [45]. - **Related News**: Production, inventory, and operating rates changed. The prices of wood pulp were stable [45][46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report. Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices were stable. The 9 - month contract price increased slightly [46]. - **Related News**: The number of pre - arriving ships and the arrival volume of New Zealand logs increased. Log inventory changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream market is weak. Attention should be paid to the details of log delivery [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait - and - see for options [48]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The pulp futures market oscillated slightly. Spot prices of different types of pulp were reported [49]. - **Related News**: Brazil launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese decorative paper [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pulp inventory changed. The market is expected to be affected by inventory and demand [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position [51]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - **Market Review**: RU main 09 contract closed at 13935 (- 0.50%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (- 0.79%), and other related prices were reported [51]. - **Related News**: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [52]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory of RU decreased, and inventory of NR increased. The market is affected by supply, demand, and salary factors [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell the RU main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position; wait - and - see for options [53]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR main 09 contract closed at 10965 (- 2.10%), and other related prices were reported [54]. - **Related News**: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: BR

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market of coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short - term. Although the raw coal inventory of coking and steel enterprises is low and there is some procurement, the decline in hot metal during the off - season of finished products affects market sentiment, and some enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw coal [2]. - The supply of coking coal is difficult to increase, and the hot metal output is rising, but the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises has slowed down, and steel prices are weak [4]. - The supply - demand pattern of coke is improving. With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, the entry of some speculative traders, and the increase in procurement by steel mills, the inventory of coke in coking enterprises has decreased significantly, and the cost support has been strengthened. It is expected to remain stable in the short - term [5]. - The increase in hot metal output and blast furnace operating rate are positive factors for coke, while the compression of steel mill profit margins and the partial over - consumption of replenishment demand are negative factors [7]. Summary by Directory Daily Views of Coking Coal - Fundamental: Some coal mines stopped production due to accidents and relocation, and the rest were operating normally. With downstream replenishment, the market trading atmosphere improved, and the inventory in production areas decreased. However, coking enterprises were cautious in purchasing raw coal due to poor profits, and the market remained stable [2]. - Basis: The spot market price was 940, and the basis was 100.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory was 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week, including 774 million tons in steel mills, 312 million tons in ports, and 669.5 million tons in independent coking enterprises [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line was upward, and the price was above the 20 - day line [2]. - Main position: The main position of coking coal was net short, and short positions increased [2]. - Expectation: The raw coal inventory in coking and steel enterprises was at a low level, and there was appropriate procurement. However, the decline in hot metal during the off - season of finished products affected market sentiment, and it was expected that the price of coking coal would remain stable in the short - term [2]. Factors Affecting Coking Coal - Positive: Rising hot metal output and difficult supply increase [4]. - Negative: Slowed procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Daily Views of Coke - Fundamental: The price of coking coal strengthened, compressing the profits of coking enterprises. However, with the entry of some speculative traders and the appropriate replenishment by steel mills, the supply - demand pattern of coke improved [5]. - Basis: The spot market price was 1340, and the basis was - 93, with the spot at a discount to the futures [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory was 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week, including 642.8 million tons in steel mills, 203.1 million tons in ports, and 87.3 million tons in independent coking enterprises [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day line was upward, and the price was above the 20 - day line [5]. - Main position: The main position of coke was net short, and short positions decreased [5]. - Expectation: With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, the entry of some speculative traders, and the increase in procurement by steel mills, the inventory of coke in coking enterprises decreased significantly, and the cost support was strengthened. It was expected to remain stable in the short - term [5]. Factors Affecting Coke - Positive: Rising hot metal output and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Negative: Compression of steel mill profit margins and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [7]. Price - The price of port metallurgical coke on July 4 (17:30) showed different trends, with some prices decreasing by 10, some remaining unchanged, and the price of first - class metallurgical coke in Qingdao Port increasing by 12 [10]. Inventory - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory was 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory was 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; the coke inventory was 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21]. - Steel mill inventory: The coking coal inventory of steel mills was 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; the coke inventory was 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24]. Other Data - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide was 74%, the same as last week [35]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39].

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of June, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.84%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.62%, up by 3.10 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - Cement mill operating rate decreased to 38.14%, down by 4.91 percentage points, slightly below last year's average[11] Inventory Trends - As of the fourth week of June, rebar inventory was 185.65 million tons, up by 1.85 percentage points from the previous period, but below last year's average[28] - Port iron ore inventory decreased to 139.27 million tons, down by 0.05 percentage points, also below last year's average[28] - Cement capacity utilization ratio was 62.76%, down by 0.68 percentage points, remaining stable compared to last year's average[28] Demand Dynamics - In June, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 45.73 percentage points, exceeding last year's average[55] - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 95,374 units, reflecting an increase of 18.44% month-on-month and 3.00% year-on-year[82] - The total box office revenue for movies was 53.9 million yuan, up by 22.78% month-on-month, but still lower than last year's level[82] Trade and Pricing - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell to 1861.51, down by 0.43% from the previous period, while the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose to 1369.34, up by 2.00%[89] - The average price of cement was 355.26 yuan per ton, down by 2.05% from the previous period, below last year's average[66] - The price of rebar was 3,070.50 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.10% from the previous period, but still below last year's average[67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass and soda ash markets are expected to oscillate, and the double - silicon market will also experience low - level oscillations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated yesterday. Spot market transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and trading sentiment cooled. This week, the average market price of float glass was 1,174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27 yuan/ton from the previous period. The enterprise start - up rate was 75.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The production capacity of previously ignited production lines was gradually released, and supply increased month - on - month. Entering the off - season, demand was expected to weaken further, and real - estate transactions remained sluggish, leading to continued low glass consumption. Inventory remained at a high level, and the market tried to clear glass production capacity through price cuts, but there was no actual supply contraction [1] - **Strategy**: The glass market is expected to oscillate [3] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, downstream sentiment was cautious, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand replenishment. This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%; the output was 709,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,700 tons; and the inventory was 1.8095 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% [2] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: There were both resumptions and overhauls in the soda ash production, but the overhaul volume was higher than the resumption volume, resulting in a month - on - month decline in output. Demand lacked an increase and faced the expectation of a contraction in float glass supply. In the off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would keep prices low [2] - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is expected to oscillate [3] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures market oscillated under the influence of market sentiment. The main contract of manganese silicon futures rose 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, closing at 5,712 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market oscillated. The price of the ore end remained firm, and the production enthusiasm of factories was not high. The price in the northern market of 6517 was 5,480 - 5,530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese production increased from a low level, pig iron production increased slightly, and silicon manganese demand increased slightly. The inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of silicon iron futures closed at 5,390 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was relatively stable, with prices fluctuating slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural blocks in the main production areas was 5,050 - 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was reported at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, silicon iron production increased month - on - month, demand increased slightly, and factory inventory was at a high level. Entering the consumption off - season, the consumption intensity of silicon iron would be tested. Silicon iron production capacity was relatively loose, and in the short term, prices were dragged down by costs, but the overall replenishment of silicon iron was in a healthy state [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon iron market is expected to oscillate [5]