Core Viewpoints - The current market valuation may not support a purely liquidity-driven rally, but unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China could act as catalysts for market sentiment [1] - Structural opportunities will be a key topic during the mid-year reporting season, while index opportunities may need to wait until late Q3 or Q4 [1] - The electrification process is accelerating globally, with a focus on the full industrial chain's monetization capabilities in the electrification and AI sectors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent market changes indicate that there is no shortage of money, with trading volumes reaching approximately 1.5 trillion yuan [2] - The market is poised for potential upward movement, contingent on three triggers: attractive valuations, strong current and future fundamental expectations [2][3] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile yet upward trend, supported by the influx of medium to long-term funds and favorable policies [7][11] Group 2: Sector Focus - Key investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that have been underweighted by funds [5][7] - The technology sector is anticipated to regain market attention, particularly with the upcoming IPOs of tech companies and innovations in AI and military industries [1][6] - The focus on high-dividend assets and the technology sector, especially those related to AI capital expenditures, is expected to provide investment opportunities [16] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The market is currently experiencing a phase of structural improvement, but it is not yet at the level of a bull market [6][10] - The potential for a bull market is contingent on either a positive shift in earnings or policy direction by Q3 [10] - The overall economic recovery is expected to be driven by domestic consumption and export growth, with a cautious outlook on external risks [4][10]

本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价+2.26%到 9879.00 美元/吨，沪铜+2.47%到 7.99 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周进口铜精矿加工费 周度指数跌至-44.81 美元/吨。截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一微增 0.05 万吨至 13.01 万吨，较上周四下降 1.58 万吨。消费端，据 SMM，本周国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率环比下滑至 74.01%，环比下滑 1.81 个百分点，较 预期值低 2.22 个百分点，同比上升 4.99 个百分点；本周漆包线行业机台开机率环比下降 0.23 个百分点至 81.6%， 周订单量环比微降 0.26%；本周国内黄铜棒生产企业开工率持续走低，较上周回落 0.38 个百分点至 50.8%。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+1.31%到 2595.00 美元/吨，沪铝+0.56%到 2.06 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四国内主流消费地 电解铝锭库存 46.3 万吨，较本周一减少 0.1 万吨，环比上周四增加 1.4 万吨；国内主流消费地铝棒库存 14.25 万吨， 较周一减少 0.2 万吨，环比上周四增加 0.8 万吨；国内主流消费地再生铝合金锭社 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月29日 公募 REITs 周报（第 23 期） 指数收跌，消费 REITs 迎新机遇 核心观点 固定收益周报 主要结论：本周中证 REITs 指数收跌，产权类 REITs 和特许经营权类 REITs 平均周涨跌幅分别为-2.1%、-1.8%。从主要指数周涨跌幅对比来看：中证转 债>沪深 300>中证全债>中证 REITs，REITs 全周日均换手率较前一周略有上 升。全市场各类型 REITs 收跌，能源、生态、市政设施类 REITs 跌幅较小。 截至 6 月 27 日，公募 REITs 年化现金分派率均值为 6.3%，显著高于当前主 流固收资产的静态收益率。产权 REITs 股息率比中证红利股股息率均值低 143BP,经营权类 REITs 内部收益率均值与十年期国债收益率利差为 209BP。 央行等六部门发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，支持符合 条件的消费基础设施发行 REITs，消费 REITs 发展迎来新机遇。华夏北京保 障房 REIT 完成国内首单租赁住房扩募，租赁住房 REITs 实现"首发+扩募" 闭环，奠定再融资常态化范式。 中证 REITs 指数周 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问螺丝钉，能不能针对 全球股票指数、美债指数等 ， 做个估值表。 目前内地能买到的、投资海外市场的基金品种不多。 不过在海外这些品种比较丰富。 可以先从指数估值的角度，了解海外市场不同品种的估值情况。 全球股票市场本周上涨超3%。 美股、欧股、港股、日股等涨幅也都超过3%。 全球股票指数组合（见下文介绍），也创下上线以来的新高。 不过这个组合也最好是在4-5星阶段投资，例如在4月初全球市场下跌的时候，当时全球股票指数也回到过4.2星。 2. 全球股票市场上涨，也是因为最近关税危机缓解、美元利率下降。 4月初特朗普宣布要增加关税。 市场担心「关税增加-会提高商品和服务的价格-导致美元通货膨胀率提高-进而导致美联储降息节奏放缓」。 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。 每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 海外市场指数数量很多，后面大家 有希望增加的品种 ，可以反馈给螺丝钉。 目前螺丝钉后台系统，已经覆盖海外主流的几百只指数品种。 1. 本周全球股票市场大幅上涨。 全球股票市场指数，回到了3.2星。 不过随后几周关 ...

2025 年 06 月 29 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20250621-20250627） 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 冯彧 A0230123080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 (8621)23297818× fengyu@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 比 较 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日） ✓ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证 A 股整体 PE 为 19.2 倍，处于历史 74%分位； ✓ 上证 50 指数 PE 为 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年06月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期震荡运行 01 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究。隆众资讯 行情研判：短期震荡运行 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 ➢ 期货端静态估值：目前顺丁橡胶期货基本面静态估值区间为11200-11800元/吨，动态估值区间由于丁二烯成交偏中性，动态估值预计震荡运行。上 方估值而言，盘面11700-11800元/吨或为基本面上方估值高位。当主力BR2507合约升水山东地区市场价100元/吨左右（单月持仓成本90元/吨附 近），盘面产生持现货抛盘面的无风险套利空间，套保头寸将逐渐使盘面上方空间压力增大。下方估值而言，丁二烯预计从成本端对顺丁价格形成支 撑 。 预计盘面 11200 元 / 吨 为 下 方 的 理 论 估 值 底 部 区 间 。 顺 丁 的 理 论 完 全 成 本 估 算 主 要 基 于 丁 ...

可转债周报 20250629 证券研究报告 固定收益 | 固定收益定期 "光大转债"模式再现？ 转债周度专题 本周一晚，齐鲁银行公告"齐鲁转债"预计触发赎回。 浦发转债到期之路也迎来新进展，"光大转债"模式再现。6 月 26 日晚， 浦发银行公告"截至 6 月 25 日，信达证券管理的信丰 1 号单一资产管理 计划通过上海证券交易所系统累计增持公司可转债 117,852,490 张，占浦 发转债发行总量的 23.57%。6 月 26 日，信达证券管理的信丰 1 号单一资 产管理计划将持有的公司可转债通过上海证券交易所系统转让至信达投资 账户"。6 月 27 日，"浦发转债"规模下降 1,178,525.20 万元，与信达证券 增持转债规模相匹配；在此期间，浦发转债转股溢价率维持在 7%附近。这 系列操作与"光大转债"到期前类似：2023 年 3 月，中国华融亦曾大幅增 持临期"光大转债"，后续溢价转股进而极大缓解了"光大转债"的到期偿 还压力。 截至 6 月 27 日，浦发转债剩余规模 382.11 亿元，到期偿还压力有所降低。 除浦发转债外，目前仅有青农转债、紫银转债价格仍在 120 元以下，银行 转债配置 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the market is experiencing a short-term upward breakthrough due to several factors, including the stabilization of capital market expectations and the influx of long-term funds, particularly from insurance companies [1][2] - The recent geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a recovery in global risk appetite, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has contributed to the market's positive momentum [2][5] - The index's breakthrough has directly boosted risk appetite, resulting in increased trading activity, particularly in small-cap stocks and technology growth sectors [2][8] Group 2 - The article suggests that multiple positive factors are expected to converge between 2026 and 2027, potentially marking a core bull market phase, although the current market still shows signs of weakness [5][6] - The overall economic outlook remains weak, with concerns about macroeconomic support and limited structural improvements, indicating that the market is not yet ready for a bull market [6][8] - The short-term market may still experience speculative index rallies, but significant upward trends are anticipated to begin in late 2025 [8] Group 3 - The article identifies specific sectors with high elasticity for investment opportunities, including stablecoins, national defense, and military industries, as well as the overseas AI computing power industry [8] - High-dividend assets are expected to undergo a revaluation in the medium term, with a focus on banking stocks, which may face adjustment pressure due to excessive short-term attention [8] - The article maintains a structural bullish outlook for A-shares, emphasizing the reliance on breakthroughs in technology industries and highlighting three asset categories closely related to China's strategic opportunities: gold, rare earths, and national defense [8]

Market Overview - Global risk assets rebounded this week amid easing geopolitical tensions and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the dollar under pressure and non-dollar currencies strengthening [1] - The S&P 500 index rose 3.44% this week, closing at 6173.07 points, surpassing its previous historical closing high from February 19 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 3.82% to 43819.27 points, while the Nasdaq index gained 4.25% to 20273.46 points, also breaking its historical closing high from December 16, 2024 [1] U.S. Stock Performance - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks led the gains in the U.S. market, with Nvidia rising 9.66% to a market capitalization of $3.85 trillion [1] - Other notable tech stocks included META (+7.52%), Google A (+7.14%), Amazon (+6.49%), Microsoft (+3.88%), Tesla (+0.51%), and Apple (+0.04%) [1] European Market Performance - European stock markets mostly rose, with the STOXX 600 index up 1.32%, Germany's DAX 30 up 2.92%, France's CAC 40 up 1.34%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.28% [1] Asia-Pacific Market Performance - The South Korean stock market rose 1.13% for the week, with a year-to-date increase of 27.36% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index surged 4.55%, surpassing 40,000 points for the first time since January 27 [2] - The Indian SENSEX 30 index increased by 2% over the week [2] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index fell 1.52% to 97.26, marking five consecutive days of decline [2] - Non-dollar currencies rebounded, with the euro rising 1.7% against the dollar, the yen up approximately 1%, and the Swiss franc increasing by 2.3% [2] Commodity Market - Gold prices fell, with spot gold dropping below $3,330 per ounce, a two-week low, down 2.8% for the week [2] - WTI crude oil prices fell significantly, with a weekly decline of 11.88%, dropping below $66 per barrel [2] - Brent crude oil also saw a decline, with a weekly drop of 12.11%, closing at $66.34 per barrel [2] Employment Data Insights - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, with an increase of 139,000 jobs, stabilizing the unemployment rate at 4.2% [4] - Analysts expect June's non-farm payrolls to slow to 120,000, with the unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.3% [4][5] - The job market indicators suggest potential downward trends, with leading indicators pointing towards a possible increase in unemployment rates in the coming years [5] U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market has rebounded after a period of extreme risk aversion, with July historically being a strong month for stock performance [6] - The S&P 500's earnings per share growth is expected to follow the trend of overall corporate profits, with current EPS growth expectations at 7.5% [6] - However, the market's valuation remains high, with the current price-to-earnings ratio at levels seen in early March, indicating limited potential for further valuation increases [7]

证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0623-0627） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年6月28日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年6月27日 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 4 图表6、7：创业板/沪深300相对PE(TTM)、中证500/沪深300相对PE(TTM) 6 6 2.45 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010-07 201 ...