证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-06-24 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:谢鹏 SAC 登记编号:S1340124010004 Email:xiepeng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《生产有所分化，物价边际回升——高 频数据跟踪 20250622》 - 2025.06.23 固收周报 中长久期高评级城投债流动性上升 ——流动性打分周报 20250623 ⚫ 核心解读 本周报以 qb 的债券资产流动性打分为基础，跟踪不同债券板块 个券的流动性得分情况。 城投债方面，分区域看，江苏高等级流动性债项均有所增加，山 东、四川、天津、重庆整体维持。分期限看，中长久期流动性增加， 短久期流动性下降；其中一年以内高等级流动性债项有所减少，1-2 年期和 2-3 年期整体维持，3-5 年期和 5 年期以上债项则有所增加。 从隐含评级看，高等级债项流动性增加，低等级流动性下降；其中隐 含评级为 AAA、AA+的高等级流动性债项数量有所增加，隐含评级为 AA、AA（2）、AA-的高等级流动性债 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-06-24 市场流动性概况 2025-06-23，股指板块成交4485.82亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.29%；持仓金额9452.63亿元，较上一交易日变动 +6.85%；成交持仓比为47.86%。 国债板块成交2504.95亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.80%；持仓金额8958.74亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.08%；成交持 仓比为28.50%。 基本金属板块成交2124.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.32%；持仓金额3853.50亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.54%；成 交持仓比为68.37%。 贵金属板块成交3568.10亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.10%；持仓金额4429.35亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.73%；成交 持仓比为81.87%。 能源化工板块成交7706.65亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.01%；持仓金额4141.60亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.26%；成 交持仓比为123.34%。 农产品板块成交3040.04亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.76%；持仓金额5736.70亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.86%；成交 持仓比为46.82%。 黑色建材板块成交1547.05亿 ...

衡量离岸人民币流动性的关键指标--离岸人民币香港银行同业拆息周二显示：主要期限利率多数上行； 其中隔夜Hibor涨8个基点至1.56879%，一周期的Hibor小升至1.63576%，均创6月10日以来高位。两周期 Hibor持平于1.62848%；一年期Hibor则小跌至1.93667%，创有数据以来新低。点击链接查看历史数据>> 相关链接 美元/离岸人民币 离岸人民币同业拆息利率多数上行，隔夜及一周期拆息创两周新高 ...

黄金的另一个风险在于其缺乏收益性。与股票、债券等资产不同，黄金本身不产生利息或股息。这意味着持有黄金的机会成本可能较高，尤其是在经 济向好的时期。当股市表现强劲或债券收益率上升时，投资者可能会放弃黄金，转而追逐更高回报的资产。这种情况下，金价往往会陷入低迷，甚至 出现长期横盘。特别是当实际利率（名义利率减去通胀率）上升时，黄金的吸引力会进一步下降，因为高利率环境会增加持有无息资产的成本。因 此，黄金的抗风险能力在一定程度上受到宏观经济周期的制约。 市场供需的变化也是黄金投资的重要风险点。尽管黄金的供应量相对稳定，但需求端的波动可能对价格产生显著影响。例如，珠宝市场的需求在某些 时期可能因经济放缓而萎缩，而投资需求的起伏则受到市场情绪的驱动。近年来，黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的兴起进一步放大了这种波动。ETF 的资金流入和流出直接影响金价，而这些资金的动向往往与投机情绪密切相关。当市场对黄金的看涨情绪减弱时，ETF的大规模赎回可能导致金价快 速下跌。此外，中央银行的黄金储备政策也会对市场产生深远影响。如果主要经济体的央行减少黄金购买或开始抛售储备，金价可能会面临长期下行 压力。 黄金市场的流动性风险同样值得关 ...

Group 1 - The company aims to enhance operational capabilities by upgrading existing assets and processing isooctane and MTBE into finished gasoline to mitigate the negative impact of consumption tax [1] - The first phase of the project is expected to achieve 50% capacity utilization in its first full accounting year, generating revenue of 1.106 billion yuan and a net profit of 15 million yuan [1] - Upon full capacity, the project is projected to generate 2.213 billion yuan in revenue and a net profit of 35 million yuan [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, the company's construction in progress amounts to 637 million yuan, an increase of 28.14% from the previous year [2] - The total budget for significant construction projects is 1.761 billion yuan, with a remaining balance of 558 million yuan [2] - Some projects have exceeded 100% completion but have not yet been transferred to fixed assets [2] Group 3 - The company has identified reasons for underutilization of capacity in major projects, including downstream demand, competition, and core product competitiveness [2][3] - Specific measures are being developed to improve capacity utilization, including price adjustments and enhancing product quality [2] - The company is actively exploring new markets, particularly in Africa, to boost sales [2] Group 4 - The company has a liquidity surplus after meeting operational and project funding needs, indicating no liquidity risk [9] - The company plans to optimize its organizational structure and focus on core business areas to improve its capital structure [9] Group 5 - The company acquired a 55% stake in Guan Zhen Technology for 60 million yuan, with performance commitments for net profits from 2022 to 2024 [10] - Guan Zhen Technology's actual net profits fell short of commitments, leading to a compensation obligation of 60 million yuan [10] - The company plans to transfer its stake in Guan Zhen Technology while ensuring compensation payments are made according to the agreed schedule [12] Group 6 - The company has reallocated goodwill among three asset groups, including Guan Zhen Technology, due to significant changes in the industry [15][19] - The reallocation of goodwill is in compliance with accounting standards and reflects the company's strategic adjustments [17][19]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 220.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4% on June 23, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.5 billion yuan after 242 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The interbank market's 7-day repo rate (DR007) remained stable, averaging 1.53% in June, with a closing rate of 1.5075% on June 23 [1] - Analysts expect the liquidity in June to remain stable across the quarter-end, supported by previous large-scale reverse repo operations and increased fiscal spending [1][2] Group 2 - The PBOC has conducted significant reverse repo operations in June, including 1 trillion yuan for 3-month and 400 billion yuan for 6-month terms, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan after offsetting maturing repos [2] - Current funding prices are relatively low, and the supply of funds is ample, with banks maintaining a high willingness to lend [2] - The PBOC is likely to continue its trend of excess Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, which is expected to support liquidity in the banking system amid large-scale government bond issuances [3]

投资策略 流动性与仓位周观察——6 月第 3 期：资金延续净流出 资金净流出，交投活跃度下降。上周全 A 成交额 6.08 万亿，较前一 周下降，换手率 6.87%，较前一周下降，资金供给端中基金、ETF 净流入， 两融净流出；资金需求端 IPO 规模为 12.64 亿元，再融资规模 4238.28 亿 元。市场资金合计净流出 3891.24 亿元，流动性转弱。 国内流动性：上周公开市场操作净投放资金 1021 亿元，DR007 下行， R007 上行，R007 与 DR007 利差扩大，金融机构间流动性未见明显分层。 利差来看，10 年期国债收益率下降 5bp，1 年期国债收益率下降 1bp，国 债期限利差扩大；10 年期美债收益率下行，10 年期国债收益率下行，中 美利差倒挂程度减轻；市场预期 7 月美联储不降息概率至 85.5%。 2025 年 06 月 23 日 市场微观交易结构：换手率下降，成交额同步下降。 机构投资者：上周偏股型基金发行规模 256.74 亿元，规模较上一周 上升。 偏股型公募基金：上周加仓行业前三：银行、电子、食品饮料；上周 减仓幅度前三行业：医药生物、有色金属、农林牧渔。 杠杆 ...

证券研究报告—策略周报 撰写日期：2025 年 06 月 23 日 策略周报（20250616-20250620） ⚫ 市场流动性概况 R007 由 1.5811%增加至 1.591% ，较前期增加了 0.99 个 bp；DR007 由 1.502%下降至 1.4941%，较前值减少了 0.79 个 bp。R007 与 DR007 利差较 前期增加了 1.78 个 bp。此外，中美利差在本周减少了 2.56 个 bp。 本周资金净流出金额为 3209.04 亿元，较上周增加了 3918.18 亿元，其 中资金供给为 1440.97 亿元，资金需求为 4650.01 亿元。具体来看，资金供 给增加了 117.03 亿元，其中融资净买入减少了 114.93 亿元，股票分红减 少了 192.33 亿元，股票型 ETF 净申赎增加了 244.93 亿元,股票型基金与混 合型基金成立增加了 179.35 亿元；资金需求增加了 4035.20 亿元。 ⚫ 行业板块流动性跟踪 本周中信一级行业多数板块录得下跌，市场风格整体偏弱，板块分化 格局延续。从行业数量看，下跌板块远多于上涨板块，跌幅面占据主导。在 上涨方向，银行板块 ...

华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 23 日│中国内地 流动性周报 +(86) 10 6321 1166 证券研究报告 固收 流动性跟踪周报（2025.6.16-6.20） 研究员 张继强 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率小幅上行 上周公开市场到期 10402 亿元，其中逆回购到期 8582 亿元，MLF 到期 1820 亿元，公开市场投放 9603 亿元，均为逆回购投放，合计净回笼 799 亿元。 上周资金面整体均衡偏松，DR007 均值为 1.52%，较前一周上行 0.5BP， R007均值为 1.58%，较前一周上行 1BP，DR001和 R001 均值分别为 1.38% 和 1.44%。交易所回购利率上行，GC007 均值为 1.61%，较前一周上行 4BP。 截至上周最后一个交易日，逆回购未到期余额为 9603 亿元，较前一周上行。 存单和 IRS 收益率分化 上周存单合计到期 10216.4 亿元，发行 11023.2 亿元，净融资规模 806.8 亿元。截至上周最后一个交易日，存单到期收益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in household deposits, amounting to 11.09 trillion yuan from January to July this year, reflects public concerns about the economic outlook and a risk-averse mentality [1] Group 1: Deposit Appreciation - The continuous interest rate cuts in 2023 have led to historically low bank deposit rates, resulting in deposit interest income falling below inflation rates, indicating a risk of asset depreciation for savers [5] - Investors are encouraged to seek alternative appreciation channels, such as low-risk bond funds, and to diversify their asset allocation based on their risk tolerance [5] Group 2: Deposit Safety - Many individuals mistakenly believe that depositing money in banks is entirely safe; however, risks still exist, particularly for elderly individuals who may be vulnerable to scams due to reliance on others for banking transactions [6] - The risks associated with bank-distributed financial products should not be overlooked, as there have been cases where customers faced difficulties accessing their funds due to unsuitable purchases [6] - Choosing to deposit in smaller banks for higher interest rates carries risks, as evidenced by cases of bank failures; diversifying deposits and avoiding exceeding the 500,000 yuan limit in a single bank are effective risk mitigation strategies [6] Group 3: Deposit Liquidity - Many individuals opt for long-term fixed deposits to achieve higher interest rates, but this can lead to poor liquidity, resulting in significant interest losses if funds need to be accessed early [7] - It is advisable to stagger deposit terms by dividing funds into different fixed deposit durations to balance yield with liquidity needs [9] - Overall, while enjoying the security of bank deposits, individuals should focus on appreciation, safety, and liquidity of their deposits, actively taking measures to prevent risks and ensure wealth preservation [9]