Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The London gold spot price has reached a historical high, indicating strong liquidity in the market [11] - The steel sector is expected to recover to historical average profit levels due to new regulatory conditions and government policies aimed at better aligning supply with demand [4] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The London gold spot price increased by 3.74% week-on-week, reaching 3433 USD/oz [11] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is at 49.09, up 2.20% month-on-month [20] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in May 2025 is -5.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises in early June increased by 3.25% [23] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 91%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points [10] - The rebar price decreased by 2.23% to 3070 RMB/ton [10] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, with a week-on-week increase of 4.12 percentage points [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20760 RMB/ton, up 2.87% week-on-week [10] Sub-sectors - The price of tungsten concentrate remains at a high level since 2011, with the price at 173500 RMB/ton [10] - The profit margin for flat glass is -58 RMB/ton, indicating low profitability in the real estate completion chain [77] Price Relationships - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar is at a low level, with a current difference of 130 RMB/ton [3] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.13, indicating a stable pricing environment [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in May 2025 is at 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1243.05 points, up 7.63% week-on-week [3] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.25%, while the commercial vehicle sector showed the best performance with a 7.24% increase [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.51, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 16, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends, with those of 1 - 5Y maturities declining by about 0.2 - 1.25bp, 7Y and 30Y maturities rising by 0.10bp and 0.15bp respectively, and the 10Y maturity yield falling by 0.05bp. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.02%, 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0.05% respectively. The central bank shifted to net injection, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rose to around 1.52% and fluctuated [3]. - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the economic data in May was weak. Industrial added - value declined slightly, social retail sales rebounded unexpectedly, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate improved month - on - month. Financial data continued to show a differentiated trend, with government bonds still being the main support for social financing. Affected by the cooling of the real estate market and the replacement of hidden debts, the corporate credit demand weakened. In the trade aspect, the pulling effect of pre - exported goods continued to weaken, and exports declined slightly in May [3]. - Overseas, the US labor market continued to show resilience. The non - farm payrolls data in May was higher than expected, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. The impact of tariffs on prices had not yet appeared. In May, the CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The market's expectation for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was adjusted to September [3]. - In terms of strategy, currently, China's domestic demand still needs to be boosted, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Coupled with the central bank's second conduct of outright reverse repurchase this month to continuously maintain the balance and looseness of the capital market, treasury bond futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended that investors maintain a certain position. However, recently, the short - end treasury bond futures have been significantly weaker than the long - end, and the market differentiation is relatively serious. As the tax payment period approaches, market sentiment tends to be cautious. The weakening of the short - end and the increase in profit - taking orders may drive the yield to rise slightly in the short term and trigger the risk of a compensatory decline in the long - end. Attention should be paid to the risk of a compensatory decline in the long - end due to the short - term spread correction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 109.015 (up 0.01%), 106.145 (unchanged), 102.466 (up 0.02%), and 120.520 (up 0.05%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 49941 (up 963), 46176 (down 294), 24997 (down 626), and 53995 (up 235) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 were - 0.18 (down 0.01), - 0.03 (down 0.03), 0.06 (up 0.00), and 0.12 (up 0.01) respectively. Other spreads also showed different changes [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts remained unchanged at 194978, 151398, 117711, and 106182 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL increased by 2198, 1859, 1730, and 665 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds showed different changes, such as 250007.IB (down 0.0222) and 2500802.IB (up 0.0225) [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.40bp, 1.50bp, 0.50bp, 0.35bp, and 0.40bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 6.28bp to 1.3872%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.09bp to 1.5209%. Shibor overnight decreased by 2.30bp to 1.3880%, and Shibor 7 - day increased by 0.20bp to 1.5100% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - On June 16, the central bank planned to conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months (182 days). The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase was 242 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 173.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Economic Data - **Industrial and Investment Data**: In May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to May was 19.1947 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment remained flat year - on - year. The real estate development investment from January to May was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [2]. - **Consumption Data**: In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 20.3171 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [2]. - **Industrial Added - value Data**: In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - June 17, 20:30, US May retail sales monthly rate - June 18, 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 (in ten thousand people) [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 242 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 16, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan after 173.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - In the week of June 9-13, the central bank had a net liquidity withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan, but the funding environment remained loose, with the overnight rate (DR001) dropping to 1.38% [1][2] - The PBOC's three-stage approach to liquidity management has shifted from implicit to explicit, aiming to enhance transparency in open market operations and stabilize market expectations [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week (June 16-20) will see a decrease in reverse repo maturities to 858.2 billion yuan, with 182 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing on Tuesday [2] - The total amount of reverse repos conducted by the PBOC in June is expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan for the month, which will help alleviate banks' liability pressures [2] - Despite tax period disturbances, the funding environment is expected to remain stable, with overnight rates unlikely to exceed 1.4% [2] Group 3 - Financial analysts express optimism regarding the liquidity outlook despite potential disturbances from tax payments, MLF maturities, and other factors in the second half of June [3] - The PBOC's clear stance on liquidity support is evident through continued reverse repo operations and high financing outflows from state-owned banks, contributing to a positive market sentiment [3] - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) was 325.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, growing by 2.3% [3] Group 4 - Concerns remain regarding the structural issues in social financing growth, which is primarily supported by government bonds, indicating weak demand in the real economy [4] - The LPR rate decreased in May, but the impact of this policy change on actual financing rates has yet to be fully realized, as the average interest rates for new corporate and personal loans remained unchanged from April [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Leverage can be more aggressive, and positions can be heavier. The certainty of loose funds allows for a more active leverage strategy, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [2][3][17]. - The growth of financing is mainly from the government sector, and the gap between deposit and loan growth rates is still being repaired. The risk of the bank's liability side has been significantly alleviated, reducing the risk of liquidity tightening [2][9]. - The two operations of the repurchase agreement mainly aim to reduce uncertainty, and the change in the scale of medium - and long - term liquidity injection this month may be small [2][11]. - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not reached its end [2][13]. - Seasonal fluctuations in capital prices will still exist. In the first and middle of July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. Summary by Directory 1 Leverage can be more aggressive - **Previous Views Summary** - There is a possibility that the capital market will be more loosely liquid than expected. There is a chance that the capital price center will be below 1.4%. - The reasonable pricing center for the NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks after the decline of capital prices in the future may be 1.6%. Currently, 1.7% is too high, and it has obvious allocation value, but it is difficult for the CD interest rate to decline significantly in June. - The main line of the bond market is the downward repair of liability costs and the return repair of position losses, which requires time. After the interest rate reaches a relatively low level, trading often fluctuates between "anticipating the market" and "falling behind" [8]. - **Financing and Credit Situation** - In May, credit growth was still weak. Corporate sector credit increased less year - on - year, and the long - term credit of the household sector showed a stable trend. Corporate sector bond financing increased slightly year - on - year, possibly related to the opening of the bond technology board. Government bonds increased by 236.7 billion year - on - year, and the growth of financing still relied on the government sector [9]. - **Function of Repurchase Agreement Operations** - The two operations of the repurchase agreement this month totaled an injection of 1.4 trillion, but considering the possible 1.2 trillion maturity in the same month, the net injection scale for the whole month is not large. The MLF and the repurchase agreement are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the space for large - scale incremental injection is decreasing. These two operations should be considered comprehensively [11]. - **Factors Affecting Capital Price Center** - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity. After April, the liability risk problem of large banks has been significantly alleviated. The performance of the capital market in the past two weeks has verified that the large banks' lending capacity has recovered, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not ended [13]. - **Seasonal Fluctuations of Capital Prices** - In mid - June, there is the impact of the tax period, and in late June, the cross - quarter factor will dominate the trend of capital prices. Near the end of the month, fiscal funds may be released to supplement liquidity. In July, the tax period is relatively large, and the fluctuation of the capital market may increase. Before that, in early and mid - July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. - **Bond Market Strategy** - Recently, the short - end and long - end of the bond market still have downward space, but the long - end space is still limited. The 1 - year treasury bond has returned to the recent low, and it is not difficult for it to break through downward. The downward range of short - end treasury bond interest rates can be larger than that of other short - end varieties, which may bring some changes to the flat treasury bond yield curve. Therefore, the leverage strategy can be more aggressive, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [3][17].

Market Overview - The overall market declined last week, with the Wind All A Index and the CSI A500 both down by 0.27% [1] - The average daily trading volume in the market increased to 1.37 trillion, showing a week-on-week rise [1] Industry Performance - In the CITIC primary industry sectors, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and pharmaceuticals led the gains, while food and beverage, computers, and building materials saw declines [1] Trade Relations - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, with a framework agreement reached to implement the consensus from the June 5 call between the two countries' leaders [1] - The US expressed a desire to reach a resolution with China regarding rare earth issues, and China has approved some export license applications related to rare earths [1] - Overall, the dialogue mechanism between China and the US is progressing in an orderly manner, with manageable short-term market impacts [1] Geopolitical Risks - The sixth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US scheduled for the 15th has been canceled, leading to heightened tensions in the Middle East and escalating geopolitical risks [1] Domestic Macro Data - In domestic macroeconomic data, May exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, but exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5% [2] - Both CPI and PPI showed negative year-on-year growth in May, indicating that inflation levels are still in a bottoming phase [2] - M1 growth reached 2.3%, the highest in nearly a year, while M2 growth remained stable, indicating overall liquidity is maintained [2] International Macro Data - In the US, May CPI data was below market expectations for the fourth consecutive month, and PPI showed moderate increases, suggesting mild inflationary pressures [2] - President Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts, with an announcement regarding the next Fed chair expected soon [2] Investment Opportunities - The ongoing geopolitical tensions may create short-term market volatility, but there could be "correction opportunities" following any mispricing [2] - Investors are advised to focus on stable income-generating assets such as the 10-year Treasury ETF, cash flow ETF, and dividend state-owned enterprise ETF [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the "Beautiful Bill" (美丽大法案) and its implications for the U.S. economy and fiscal policy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Tax Reduction Estimates**: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that if the Beautiful Bill is enacted, it will result in a tax reduction of $3.8 trillion over the next ten years, accounting for approximately 5.8% of projected federal revenue during that period [1][2] 2. **Spending Cuts**: The bill is expected to reduce federal spending by about $1.5 trillion over the next decade, which is about 1.8% of total federal spending. Key areas of reduction include healthcare, student loans, and food stamps [1][4] 3. **Net Deficit Increase**: The overall impact of the bill will lead to a net increase in the deficit by $2.4 trillion, despite the proposed spending cuts [1][4] 4. **Foreign Taxation**: The bill introduces retaliatory taxes on certain foreign entities, increasing taxes on passive income such as dividends and interest by up to 20%, which could affect 892 tax exemptions for foreign government entities [1][5] 5. **Legislative Timeline**: The bill has passed the House and is awaiting Senate review, with potential enactment dates before the debt ceiling deadline in August or September [1][6] 6. **Fiscal Policy Discrepancies**: There are significant differences between the Senate and House regarding fiscal policy, with the Senate favoring looser fiscal measures and the House proposing substantial tax cuts [1][7] 7. **Debt Concerns**: The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 120.8%, surpassing World War II peaks, and is expected to rise further with the bill's implementation [3][11] 8. **Market Reactions**: Concerns exist regarding the potential short-term increase in U.S. debt issuance if the fiscal bill is enacted, which could affect bond yields [3][13] 9. **Debt Management Strategy**: The U.S. Treasury has been focusing on issuing short-term debt to manage liquidity and keep financing costs low, with significant demand from money market funds [14][15] 10. **Impact of Stablecoin Regulation**: New regulations on stablecoins may alleviate some pressure on short-term debt, as stablecoins are increasingly backed by U.S. Treasury securities [17] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Republican Party Dynamics**: There is a division within the Republican Party regarding fiscal policy, with most members favoring fiscal expansion while a minority supports tightening measures [8][9] 2. **Long-term Economic Growth Concerns**: The ongoing increase in the debt ratio raises questions about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, especially as economic growth has been slowing since 2024 [12] 3. **Liquidity Management by the Federal Reserve**: The Federal Reserve may need to adjust its balance sheet strategy to support the bond market if significant debt issuance occurs [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the future week, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline, and the tax period will disrupt the capital market. Considering the central bank's care for the capital market and the adequacy of its toolbox, the capital market is expected to maintain a balanced and slightly loose operation [1]. - In the future week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs) will exceed one trillion, with significant supply pressure. However, the central bank's second - round injection of medium - and long - term funds is expected to marginally relieve the issuance pressure of CDs, and CD yields may show a fluctuating downward trend [1]. - Funds have become the main buyer of interest - rate bonds, with a significant increase in net buying volume in the past week, while rural commercial banks have become the main seller [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Liquidity Tracking 1.1 Fund Review: The Central Bank Announces Another Injection of Medium - and Long - term Liquidity - In the statistical period (June 9 - 13, 2025), 7 - day reverse repurchase funds of 930.9 billion yuan matured, and the central bank injected 858.2 billion yuan of 7 - day funds, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan for the whole week, and the OMO stock decreased to 858.2 billion yuan. The central bank announced a second - round 40 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation for the next week, achieving a net injection for the whole month [10]. - During the statistical period, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar depreciated by 1.52 basis points due to the uncertainty of US tariffs and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut [10]. - In terms of government bond progress, in the past week, the net financing of treasury bonds was 262.06 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3.10409 trillion yuan, completing 46.6% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 8.372 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2.00893 trillion yuan, completing 38.6% of the annual plan, with a slowdown in the issuance speed. As of June 13, 1.68 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts had been issued, completing 84.2% of the annual plan [13]. - In terms of capital structure, the lending scale of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased significantly to over 4.5 trillion yuan, the lending scale of money market funds and wealth management products decreased, and the overall borrowing scale of non - banking institutions decreased slightly. The DR series declined, with overnight rates operating near the policy rate, and the spread between 7 - day rates and the policy rate narrowed to 10bp. The R series rose, and the liquidity stratification increased slightly but remained at a low level. The capital market showed a situation of "increasing volume and decreasing price" throughout the week, with a marginal tightening feeling on Thursday and Friday, and a balanced feeling for the whole week [15]. 1.2 CD Review: The Secondary - Market Interest Rate of CDs Declined Slightly, and the Demand from Core Buyers Strengthened - In the primary market, the net financing scale of inter - bank CDs was - 16.226 billion yuan in the statistical period, with a total issuance of 104.137 billion yuan and a maturity of 120.363 billion yuan. In the next three weeks, 102.164 billion, 113.781 billion, and 24.579 billion yuan of inter - bank CDs will mature respectively. The primary issuance rate decreased slightly, with an average issuance rate of 1.6744% (previous value: 1.7106%) [18]. - In the secondary market, core buyers such as funds and wealth management products continued to increase their holdings, money market funds changed from selling to buying, large - scale banks continued to reduce their holdings, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks changed from buying to selling, and insurance and other non - banking institutions and other product accounts continued to increase their holdings. The secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated and declined slightly during the week, and the yield curve steepened slightly. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by - 1.78BP/ - 2.00BP/ - 1.50BP/ - 1.05BP/ - 0.91BP respectively [20]. 1.3 Next - Week Focus: The Central Bank's Firm Care for the Capital Market and the Marginal Relief of CD Issuance Pressure - In terms of the capital market, the May social financing data showed that the credit demand of residents and enterprises had recovered compared with April, with a weak stabilization of overall credit demand. The increase in government bond supply drove the stable growth of social financing, which is expected to support the key period of fiscal expenditure in June. After the deposit rate cut in May, the phenomenon of deposit transfer emerged, with a significant increase in non - banking deposits. The central bank announced a second - round injection of 40 billion yuan of 6 - month outright repurchase in the middle of the month. Combined with the previous 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright repurchase and the 120 - billion - yuan maturity this month, the net injection of outright reverse repurchases for the whole month was 20 billion yuan. The central bank's small - scale net withdrawal in open - market operations in the past two weeks also showed its care for the capital market. It is expected that the market will price a positive signal on June 16, but the amplitude will be smaller than that on June 6. In the next week, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline, and the tax period will disrupt the capital market. Considering the central bank's care and the adequacy of its toolbox, the capital market is expected to maintain a balanced and slightly loose operation [24]. - In terms of CDs, on the supply side, the net financing of CDs remained negative in the past week. The central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity relieved the liability pressure of banks, and the primary - market interest rate of CDs decreased slightly. On the demand side, the demand from core buyers strengthened marginally, and the secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated and declined slightly during the week. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs will exceed one trillion, with significant supply pressure. However, the central bank's second - round injection of medium - and long - term funds is expected to marginally relieve the issuance pressure of CDs, and CD yields may show a fluctuating downward trend [25]. 2. Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking Recent Considerations on Institutional Assets and Liabilities - The trends of the active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds deviated significantly at times recently. The main reasons are that the supply rhythms of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds were staggered in June, and the weak sentiment in the primary - market allocation disturbed the secondary - market. Since the beginning of the second quarter, interest rates have mainly fluctuated within a narrow range, and institutions had a strong desire to increase duration to obtain excess returns during the window of loose liquidity at the beginning of June. The trading volume of 30 - year treasury bonds increased more significantly than that of 10 - year treasury bonds. Looking forward, there will be no issuance pressure for 10 - year treasury bonds in the second half of June, and the capital price still shows certain volatility. The window period for institutions to increase duration may end, and the performance of 30 - year treasury bonds may not continue to outperform [27]. - The rotation of the bond - replacement market of China Development Bank (CDB) bonds has been very fast recently. When the bond - replacement of CDB active bonds accelerates, the volatility of new bonds will also increase. Therefore, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds has fluctuated significantly recently. In the short term, old bonds may be safer to avoid volatility [28]. Key Review of Institutional Secondary - Market Transactions - Large - scale banks continued to buy treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, with a buying volume of about 77.6 billion yuan in the past week [31]. - Funds have become the main buyer of interest - rate bonds, with a net buying volume of about 160.4 billion yuan in the past week, showing a significant increase. Rural commercial banks have become one of the main sellers, with a net selling volume of about 109.2 billion yuan in the past week [31]. - The main buyers of CDs are money market funds, wealth management products, and other products, while the main sellers are city commercial banks and securities firms [31]. - The net buying volume of main non - banking buyers of credit bonds increased. Funds, wealth management products, and other products were the main net buyers, with funds having the largest increase. Since late March, the net buying volume of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years has been generally stable, while the net buying volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years has fluctuated greatly, and the main non - banking buyers increased their buying volume significantly in the past week [31]. - For secondary - tier capital bonds, funds with a maturity of less than 2 years changed to net sellers, with a net selling volume of about 4.9 billion yuan in the past week, while wealth management products and other products changed to net buyers. The main buyers of 2 - 5 - year secondary - tier capital bonds continued to increase their buying volume, with funds having the largest net buying volume of about 36.2 billion yuan, and the banking system was the main net seller. The trading of 5 - 10 - year secondary - tier capital bonds remained light [31]. High - Frequency Data Tracking of Bond Market Micro - Structure - On June 13, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 5.92bp, and the spread fluctuated and widened. The spread between 1 - year CDB bonds and R001 was 1.87BP, and the yield of short - term bonds was slightly higher than the capital price [33]. - The leverage ratio of the bond market in the week before the holiday was 107.72%, continuing to rise month - on - month [35].

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 流动性跟踪 证券研究报告 央行呵护，资金再闯关 1、资金面聚焦：央行呵护，资金再闯关 本周资金面先紧后松，资金利率一度下破 1.4%的政策利率水平，国有大行 净融出规模行至年内高位，存单一二级收益率持稳。资金分层现象有所凸 显，但仍处偏低水平。 展望下周，资金面将迎来多重扰动，也一定程度增加对于银行负债端压力 的担忧，但整体或相对可控。一方面，本月第二次买断式逆回购将于月中 进行操作，月内净投放 2000 亿元，为二季度首次实现净投放，且这或与月 初的 3 个月期买断式逆回购操作、下旬开展的 MLF 操作将形成协同，分别 于月初、月中及月末时点进行呵护。后续也不排除这两类工具继续选择在 上述三个时点进行操作的可能，实现月内各阶段流动性的精准呵护，也有 利于引导市场形成较为稳定的预期。另一方面，5 月社融表现分化，外围 关税博弈也仍在持续，基本面磨底修复阶段仍需货币政策的保驾护航，央 行的呵护态度或仍在。 下周资金面关注因素：（1）逆回购到期 8582 亿元，规模小幅下行，MLF 回笼 1820 亿元；（2）政府债净缴款 1036 亿元，规模小幅回落，其中，国 债缴款规模较大；（3） ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 2.29 trillion RMB, up from 1.16 trillion RMB in the previous period[1] - New RMB loans amounted to 620 billion RMB, an increase from 280 billion RMB previously[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock remained at 8.7%, consistent with the previous value[1] - M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly up from 8% previously[1] - New M1, under the new calculation, increased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared to 1.5% previously[1] Group 2: Deposit Trends - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, with a new scale of approximately 2.8 trillion RMB in April and May, the highest since 2016[7] - Corporate deposits fell by about 1.7 trillion RMB in April and May, indicating a potential cash flow impact due to external uncertainties[4] - The proportion of new household deposits and cash in M2 has been decreasing, suggesting a gradual "unfreezing" of liquidity[3] - The government accelerated bond issuance, with a net expenditure of approximately 1.1 trillion RMB in April and May, significantly higher than the average of 0.1 trillion RMB from 2017 to 2024[8] Group 3: Economic Implications - The improvement in the corporate-resident deposit gap since September 2024 suggests that domestic policy certainty is a crucial variable influencing economic behavior[2] - The current trend indicates that while household liquidity is gradually being released, corporate cash flow remains weak, potentially affecting production capabilities[26] - The government’s proactive fiscal measures and the increase in non-bank deposits are expected to support ongoing economic recovery despite external uncertainties[26]

DR001 或成新目标 宽松下限尚未到达 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250615 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com 3DR001 或成新目标 宽松下限尚未到达 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行 OMO 净回笼 72 ...