Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to follow the market sentiment and show a strong and volatile trend in the short - term, driven by low valuation, cold weather and the geopolitical situation in Iran, but the sustainability of the PP rebound should be treated with caution due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and limited spot follow - up [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as plastics have new production capacity coming on - stream recently, with a higher operating rate than PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic mulch has not yet started [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 23, the downstream operating rate of PP rebounded 0.34 percentage points month - on - month to 52.87%, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped 0.56 percentage points month - on - month to 42.04%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 29, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 79%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 27.5% [1][5] - Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was depleted rapidly and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cold weather boosted the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns. Coupled with the escalating geopolitical situation in Iran, crude oil prices rose [1] - Recently, the number of maintenance devices increased slightly. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, but as the Spring Festival holiday approached, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving continued to decline, and new orders were limited [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6780 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6898 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6870 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 1.54%. The open interest increased by 13300 lots to 556684 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions rose. Drawstring was quoted at 6400 - 6910 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 29, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 79%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 27.5% [5] - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the downstream operating rate of PP rebounded 0.34 percentage points month - on - month to 52.87%, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped 0.56 percentage points month - on - month to 42.04%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year [5] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 2.5 tons month - on - month to 47.5 tons, 8.5 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was depleted rapidly and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [5] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 03 rose above 69 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 820 US dollars per ton month - on - month [6]

Core Viewpoint - The metal sector on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced a significant rally on January 29, 2026, driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic policies, geopolitical dynamics, supply-demand balance, capital flows, and inter-commodity linkages. Group 1: Core Driving Factors - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a dovish stance and reinforcing expectations for rate cuts in the first half of 2026. The US dollar index fell to 96.2, a near four-year low, reducing overseas procurement costs for metals and attracting global capital into the commodity market [1]. - **Domestic Growth Policies**: Continued domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, such as the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and consumption stimulation during the Spring Festival, further boosted metal demand expectations [2]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Easing concerns over supply chain disruptions due to improved conditions in resource-rich areas, although geopolitical uncertainties remain. Silver, with its dual attributes of finance and safe-haven, became a preferred choice for capital allocation [3]. - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: A "tight balance" in supply and demand was noted, with supply constraints in tin, nickel, and lead due to environmental policies and mining difficulties, while demand surged from sectors like new energy and construction [4][5]. - **Capital Flows**: Increased risk appetite led to significant capital inflows into the commodity market, with metals showing heightened trading activity. The reversal of previously accumulated pessimism quickly drove prices up [7]. Group 2: Price Movements and Commodity Performance - **Price Increases**: Major metals saw substantial price increases, with copper rising by 6,490 yuan (+6.35%), aluminum by 765 yuan (+3.08%), and silver by 1,706 yuan (+5.99%). Gold also saw a notable increase of 87.14 yuan (+7.53%) [1]. - **Commodity Linkages**: Leading commodities like copper and aluminum initiated the rally, boosting market sentiment. Copper reached a new high of 108,000 yuan/ton, while aluminum followed suit due to dual demand from new energy and infrastructure [8]. - **Differentiated Performance**: Various metals exhibited different price responses based on their supply-demand characteristics and market attributes, with tin and nickel showing strong rebounds due to specific supply constraints and demand from new energy applications [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - **Short-term Outlook**: The market is expected to maintain strong fluctuations leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by ongoing stocking activities and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Copper may challenge the 109,000 yuan/ton mark, while aluminum is monitored around the 26,000 yuan/ton resistance level [10]. - **Long-term Perspective**: Structural demand from industries such as new energy and AI computing is anticipated to reshape the market, with copper, aluminum, and tin potentially entering a "super cycle." However, caution is advised regarding potential risks from US government shutdowns and disappointing earnings from tech giants [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions in small quantities for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish movement for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda and soda ash for the time being, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillatory movement for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds for hogs; hedging post - festival contracts on rallies for eggs; being cautious about chasing highs and waiting for rebounds to hedge for corn; bearish on rallies for soybean meal; bullish oscillation for three major oils [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also emphasizes the importance of paying attention to policy changes, inventory levels, and external market factors [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Market is volatile due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, China's industrial profit data, and consumer spending intentions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. There is no significant negative news in the bond market, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflows [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the price increase may not be sustainable due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat - electricity cost. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction in the short term [7] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is stable, the market speculative demand is weak, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1070 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Macro factors provide support, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions in small quantities, and beware of the risk of a pullback before the Spring Festival [9] - **Aluminum**: High - level oscillation. The supply of bauxite and alumina is relatively stable, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - **Nickel**: Oscillatory movement. The reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Tin**: Oscillatory movement. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [13] - **Silver**: Bullish movement. Geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's leadership expectations have pushed up the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Similar to silver, geopolitical and Fed - related factors have led to a higher price center. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal is good. The price is expected to be bullish [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended for long - term low - buying and positive spread trading [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level oscillation. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - **Styrene**: Oscillatory movement. The price has rebounded due to export growth and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory pressure remains. The price is in a state of multi - empty tug - of - war [20] - **Urea**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate between 1730 - 1830 [21] - **Methanol**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak [23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The supply is increasing, the demand from PE downstream is declining, and the price is expected to be weak with limited upside [24] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the internal - external price difference has put pressure on the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [24] - **Apples**: Oscillatory movement. The packaging and shipping in the production areas have accelerated slightly, but the overall market is still weak [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillatory movement. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Bottom - building oscillation. In the short term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, be cautious about being bullish due to high - level production capacity and cost reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. Also, consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts due to the possible post - poned supply pressure [30] - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, the supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, restricting the price increase [32] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level oscillation. The short - term support for the M2603 contract is at 3000 - 3030, and the pressure for the far - month 05 contract is at 2800 - 2850. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [32] - **Oils**: Bullish oscillation. The three major oils are expected to move strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [38]

转自：期货日报 近期，PTA期货表现偏强，主力合约价格一度涨至4500元／吨左右。PTA市场预期转好、成本端偏强及 资金集中入场是价格上涨的主要因素。 编辑：吴郑思 2019年以来，PTA行业进入以大型化、一体化装置为特征的新一轮扩张周期，投产陆陆续续持续7年， PTA有效产能从2019年的4669万吨增长至2025年的9472万吨，产能规模大幅增长。2026年，PTA行业大 概率没有新产能投放，投产将告一段落，新增供应压力大幅减轻。而下游聚酯仍有规划产能投放，2026 年新增聚酯产能预计在500万吨左右，聚酯产量增速在5%左右，PTA刚性需求仍将保持一定增长，PTA 行业长期供需格局有望好转。而此前PTA受产能过剩压力影响，价格以及加工费跌至低位，存在较大修 复空间。 具体来看，随着春节临近，聚酯环节有明确的降负荷预期。1月中旬开始，聚酯负荷明显下滑。上周， 长丝工厂集中开启检修，一套瓶片装置也停车检修，聚酯负荷下降至86.2%附近，环比下滑2.1个百分 点，预计1月底降至80%附近。与此同时，终端织造环节逐步开启放假模式。截至1月23日，江浙织机负 荷下滑至48%，加弹机负荷下滑至64%。据了解，部分企业 ...

地缘略有降温，能化回落调整 行情综述： 油：美炼厂开工回落需求走弱，EIA 周库存连续两周大幅累库， 短期基本面走弱，中期基本面维持宽松偏悲观。但盘面短期交易逻辑 转向伊朗地缘溢价。伊朗地缘方面虽美军在中东部署增加，但隔夜伊 朗外长与美国特使威特科夫互致信息，涉及多项议题。早盘特朗普也 表示认为伊朗确实想要达成协议。后续路径演变有三: 1.军事施压下 通过外交途径重启谈判，地缘风险解除，溢价回吐。2.美一轮空袭后 伊朗再度表演式回击，复刻 2025 年 6 月"午夜之锤"行动前后影响， 仍是可控局面。3.连续大规模空袭，伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡（可能性 较低，暂不考虑）。重点关注 1 和 2 可能 ,等待降温信号出现与技术 配合逢高空思路。 化工：化工近期仍是板块情绪+原油成本支撑+非产业资金/宏观 资金流入下偏强运行，短期同样关注伊朗地缘影响何时结束。 （一）原油： 逻辑：美炼厂开工回落需求走弱，EIA 周库存连续两周大幅累库， 短期基本面走弱，中期基本面维持宽松偏悲观。但盘面短期交易逻辑 转向伊朗地缘溢价，近一周美军在中东部署力度加大，局势升温风险 短期支撑原油走出偏强走势。伊朗地缘方面虽美军在中东部署增加， ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment landscape for resources such as non-ferrous metals, rare earths, and gold is evolving, with these sectors transitioning from niche interests to mainstream investment opportunities, driven by underlying industrial logic and market dynamics [3][14]. Scientific Perspective - The periodic table serves as an industrial map, with 92 naturally occurring metal elements being crucial for current economic and industrial development. Metals are categorized into "ferrous" and "non-ferrous," with the latter being the focus of current investment interest. Rare earth elements, comprising 17 specific elements, and precious metals like gold and silver play significant roles in financial history [4][15]. Explosive Logic - The surge in resource sector interest is attributed to unexpected significant increases in commodity prices, driven by tightening supply and enhanced financial attributes under global liquidity conditions. Three main drivers are identified: the challenge to the dollar credit system, insufficient supply due to low capital expenditure, and the strategic value of rare earths in trade and security [5][16]. Investment Framework - The current supply side is characterized by vulnerabilities, including natural depletion of mining grades and increased resource nationalism. On the demand side, structural growth is supported by global energy transitions and infrastructure upgrades, particularly benefiting basic metals like copper and aluminum. Resources exhibit cyclical characteristics, but their strategic value is becoming more prominent, suggesting a potential for sustained high prices [7][18]. Opportunity Map - Investment opportunities in metals are categorized into four areas: basic metals (copper, aluminum) for electrification, precious metals (gold, silver) as hedges against currency risks, energy metals (lithium, cobalt, nickel) benefiting from energy transitions, and minor metals (tin, tungsten) with specific strategic applications. China's advantages in gold reserves and a complete rare earth supply chain position it favorably in the global market [8][19]. Participation Pathways - Investors are advised to align their investment strategies with their understanding of the resource cycle. Options include actively managed funds for broad exposure or sector-specific ETFs for targeted investments. Disciplined investment strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging, are recommended to mitigate volatility, while direct participation in high-risk products like futures is discouraged [9][20]. From Elements to Assets - The dialogue emphasizes that resource investment transcends simple cyclical trading, influenced by scientific, macroeconomic, and geopolitical factors. Understanding these dynamics is essential for investors to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the resource sector by 2026 [10][21].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美方称如果加拿大同中国达成新的贸易协 议，美国将对自加拿大进口的商品加征100%关税。外交部发言 人郭嘉昆对此表示，中加构建新型战略伙伴关系，就妥善解决 中加之间的经贸问题作出一些具体安排，不针对任何第三方。 评：关税及伊朗方面的地缘政治问题持续发酵，避险情绪对黄 金存在支撑。在避险情绪推动，美元指数下跌及美联储主席更 迭等事件发酵下，黄金再度走高，但是短期黄金或受美联储议 息会议影响，注意管控风险，关注地缘扰动。 【短评-焦炭】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-66元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利-51元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利-8元/吨，内蒙二级 焦平均盈利-103元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利-11元/吨。评： 焦炭成本支撑坚挺，且钢厂后续复产预期仍在，冬储补库需求 仍存，焦炭基本面将保持健康，现货提涨落地后预计跟随成本 运行，盘面则跟随焦煤震荡运行。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月27日 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum: Macro funds' bullish sentiment on prices remains, but environmental controls and bad weather have slowed the inventory accumulation mid - week. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term. Attention should be paid to the development of macro events and downstream feedback [12]. - Zinc: Affected by the volatility of non - ferrous metals, zinc prices are relatively strong. In the medium - and long - term, the supply increase exerts pressure on the upside, but it will take time to materialize. Zinc prices will run at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and inventory trends at home and abroad [14]. - Tin: Tin prices are at a high level, and it is advisable to avoid participation in the short term [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: It will fluctuate in a high - level range, with a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". Policy expectations and supply disruptions support the price bottom [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Colorful Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report shows the closing prices, weekly changes, and weekly price changes of the main futures contracts and spot prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel from January 16th to January 23rd, 2026. For example, the main copper futures contract (CU2603) rose 0.57%, while the average copper spot price in Shanghai Wumaohu decreased 0.80% [9]. 3.2 02 This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast - **Aluminum**: Macro factors such as geopolitical frictions and tariff uncertainties put pressure on the US dollar. On the fundamental side, some northern mining areas have staged production cuts due to weather, and the domestic ore price is expected to remain stable. The overall aluminum processing industry shows a pattern of stable operation with local fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term [12]. - **Zinc**: SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price remained flat, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates continues to weaken, and the overall supply - demand pattern in February is expected to remain unchanged. The galvanizing industry shows a "first - up - then - down" trend. Zinc prices will run at a high level in the short term [14]. - **Tin**: In December 2025, China's tin concentrate imports increased. The smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi are operating at a high level, but there is limited room for further improvement. The demand is stable, and the market is optimistic about the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle industries after the festival. Tin prices are at a high level, and short - term participation should be avoided [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Last week, the lithium carbonate market rose strongly. The supply side is contracting comprehensively, the demand side has kinetic energy conversion and prominent structural contradictions, the inventory structure has deteriorated significantly, and the profit structure has prominent contradictions. It will fluctuate in a high - level range, with a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality" [16]. 3.3 03 Variety Data 3.3.1 Aluminum - **Bauxite**: The prices of domestic high - and low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week; the average price index of imported bauxite decreased. The port arrival volume increased, while the departure volume decreased [21][24]. - **Alumina**: The domestic price in Henan decreased, the full cost decreased, and the profit in Shanxi increased [27]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost decreased, and the regional price difference increased. The downstream processing industry's overall operating rate showed a mixed trend, with some rising and some remaining stable. The inventory in the bonded area decreased, the social inventory increased, and the inventory in the futures exchange also changed [29][36][41]. - **Spot and Basis**: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum decreased week - on - week, and the monthly spread also changed [47][48]. 3.3.2 Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: The price of domestic zinc concentrate decreased, the domestic processing fee remained unchanged, and the imported processing fee decreased. The enterprise production profit decreased, the import loss increased, and the imported zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang increased [57][60]. - **Refined Zinc**: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, the bonded area inventory remained unchanged, the inventory in the futures exchange changed [63]. - **Galvanizing**: The output and operating rate increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventories increased [67]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the monthly spread changed [71][75]. 3.3.3 Tin - **Refined Tin**: The combined output and operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased [82]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: The SHFE tin ingot inventory and the Chinese regional social inventory increased [85]. - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fee**: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week and increased year - on - year [88]. - **Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss level increased [89]. - **Spot Price**: The average prices in different regions increased [95]. 3.3.4 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main contract increased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest increased, and the basis decreased significantly [98]. - **Supply Side**: The overall operating rate and output decreased, with significant declines in the lithium - spodumene and recycling - material routes [100][105]. - **Demand Side**: The cathode material industry generally increased production and accumulated inventory, and the demand transmission was blocked. The total demand on the terminal side was under pressure, but energy storage showed strong performance [113][118]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased slightly, the smelters and downstream accumulated inventory, and the social inventory increased [119]. - **Cost and Profit**: The raw - material market showed a differentiated trend, with overseas lithium - spodumene prices rising slightly and domestic lithium - ore prices generally falling back. The production and import profits were differentiated, and the delivery profit improved but was still under pressure [126][129].

(一)地缘政治：短期情绪导火索 中东冲突持续升级，美伊紧张加剧，红海航运受阻推高能源与大宗商品波动，资金涌入贵金属避险。 格陵兰岛争端、东欧局势反复，全球风险偏好下降，白银作为 "平民黄金"，成为中小资金避险的高弹 性选择。 地缘风险推升通胀预期，叠加避险买盘，进一步强化白银的抗通胀与避险双重属性。 (二)货币政策：美元走弱与降息预期强化 美联储官员上周密集释放 "鸽派" 信号，暗示 2026 年降息 3 次，市场预期 3 月或开启降息周期，美元指 数跌破 100 关口，以美元计价的白银吸引力大增。 美国财政赤字高企(2025 年达 3.2 万亿美元)，美元信用弱化，全球央行增持黄金、白银以分散储备，私 人资金跟风配置。 实际利率下行预期明确，降低白银持有机会成本，推动 ETF 与期货资金流入。 (三)工业需求：新能源与科技驱动爆发 光伏是核心增量：2025 年全球光伏用银量达 7560 吨，较 2022 年翻倍;2026 年预计全球光伏装机 600 吉 瓦，新增用银约 6 万吨，银浆需求刚性上涨。 新能源汽车、AI 数据中心、5G 基站等领域用银量持续增长，工业需求占白银总需求超 50%，成为中长 期核心支 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is under multiple pressures, and the supply surplus in 2026 will be the core driver of oil prices. The rebound space of oil prices is limited without clear production - cut signals or significant geopolitical escalation [4]. - PX supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually, and PTA prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost in the short term. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of the industrial chain before the Spring Festival [4]. - The supply pressure of MEG has been alleviated, but it is in a short - term supply - demand weak pattern. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and the supply surplus situation is difficult to change in the medium term [5]. - The supply - demand of BZ has marginally improved, and EB prices have strengthened. Although the current pressure of BZ is still large, there is a risk of correction, and the overall view is cautiously bullish [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The crude oil market is influenced by inventory pressure, supply return, and the decline of geopolitical risk premium. Cold weather may support demand in the short term, but the demand improvement is difficult to change the overall supply - demand pattern. The supply surplus in 2026 will be the core driver of oil prices, and the rebound space is limited without clear signals [4]. PX & PTA - Domestic PX maintenance plans are being implemented, and the load has dropped from a high level. The processing fee has rebounded to around $350/ton. The supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually. PTA device load has slightly decreased, and there is a weakening demand signal at the terminal. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost in the short term [4]. - The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 2.08% from last week. The Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 79.31%, down 0.53% from last week. The PX - naphtha spread is around $350/ton. The new PX capacity will be added in the second half of next year, and the maintenance plan in the second quarter is relatively large. The near - term industrial situation has weakened [8]. - The PTA spot market price is 5,068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate is 75.83%, down 1.39% from last week. The factory inventory days are 3.62 days, the same as last week. The polyester production reduction plan has increased, and the PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost [13]. MEG - The spring maintenance of domestic ethylene glycol syngas devices, combined with the overall strengthening of the coal and polyester sectors, has alleviated the supply pressure. The port inventory has increased again, but the import volume is expected to decline in January - February. The short - term supply - demand is weak, with strong support at around 3,600 yuan/ton, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5]. - The price of ethylene glycol in East China is 3,652 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from last week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 61.06%, down 1.63% from last week. The port inventory in East China is 740,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level under the future supply - demand weak expectation [20]. BZ & EB - The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and the port inventory has started to decline from a high level. The downstream demand has been boosted. The supply of styrene is expected to shrink, and the price has strengthened. The downstream 3S shows resilience, and the inventory pressure has been gradually relieved. The current pressure of pure benzene is still large, and there is a risk of correction, with a cautiously bullish view [5]. - The pure benzene operating rate is 72.37%, down 1.89% from last week. The styrene operating rate is 69.63%, down 1.23% from last week. The BZN has rebounded to around $160/ton. The pure benzene and styrene have both reduced inventory. The downstream PS, ABS, and EPS have different operating rate changes, and the 3S production and sales have improved [29]. Polyester and Downstream - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry is 83.49%, down 3.21% from last week. The inventory of polyester staple fiber and filament has decreased. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving sample enterprises is 51.20%, down 3.74% from the previous period. The terminal demand has weakened, and the market atmosphere has become colder [24].