年度报告-短纤/瓶片 短纤：扩能再起；瓶片：筑底修复 | 走势评级: | | --- | [Table_Summary] ★短纤：新产能压力再起，加工费修复或受阻 短纤传统需求增长平缓，居民消费意愿不足和下游企业现金流低 迷的情况下，需求难有突破性增长。短纤出口受益于织造横向转 移和海外短纤产能缺口，有望维持高增长的态势，是消化短纤新 增产量的重要途径。目前国内短纤存量装置负荷已经提升至近满 负，明后年分别有 80 万吨/年、100 万吨/年的新产能投放计划。 预计 2026 年短纤产量增速 7%。假设短纤出口增速 20%，内需增 速 5%，则年度供需格局由去库转累库。 能 源 化 工 鉴于今年短纤加工费并未能实现向上突破，明年有新增产能压力 情况下加工费修复空间也有限。而短纤加工费下方空间则由产业 龙头协同意愿托底。预计明年全年短纤加工费在 850-1300 元/吨 区间震荡，绝对价格则跟随原料端震荡为主。 ★瓶片：供需矛盾有望缓和，加工费中枢或小幅上移 2026 年，瓶片行业将步入"投产放缓、需求稳增"的新阶段：供 应端，新产能投放节奏趋于平缓，年内仅有 70 万吨/年新产能投 放计划，扩能周期基本收尾； ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-30 乌克兰停⽕协议短期难以达成，化⼯供 需偏弱⽽预期较好，期价延续震荡 乌克兰停火协议仍未有实质性进展，而中国在加大对原油的进口量， 油价延续震荡整理态势。彭博报道，美国特朗普总统12约28日在海湖庄园 与泽连斯基总统会谈后表示，双方取得了"进展"。泽连斯基则称，他已 向特朗普寻求为期30至50年的安全保障。俄罗斯当前仍未对协议表态。Kp ler数据显示，中国12月原油进口将创记录新高；我国财政部表示将在 2026年继续扩大财政支出范围，需求向好的预期也短暂支撑了油价。 板块逻辑： 化工整体处于震荡格局。周一液体化工库存大都攀升，纯苯最为突 出。截至12月29日当周，江苏纯苯港口库存环比增9.89%，处于五年周期 的最高库存量；苯乙烯周度库存下滑0.36%，乙二醇周度继续小幅累库。 聚烯烃的产量同比依旧维持高位，尤其是PE和LLDPE，即使如此，在宏观 的利好带动下，化工都出现了企稳迹象。当前的主力05合约距离交割时间 较远，现货供需面的弱势尚不足以对期价有立竿见影的利空效果，01合约 即将退出历史舞台。中国原油 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪变换，钢矿强弱分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.71%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应有所回升，而需求季节性走弱，基本面表现偏弱，淡季钢价 承压运行，相对利好的是商品情绪偏暖，预期现实博弈钢价延续震荡运 行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.55%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷需求迎改善，而供应处于低位，供需格局有所好转，给予价格 支撑，但需求韧性存疑，且库存水 ...

12月29日，截止发稿，COMEX白银价格为75.75美元/盎司，现货白银价格为75.89美元/盎司，WTI原油为57.39美元/桶。自1983年WTI原油期货交 易启动以来，白银价格持续高于原油的情形极为罕见，仅在2020年疫情期间短暂出现过两次。 白银价格突破45年纪录并预计将翻倍上涨，创造了大宗商品市场的罕见景象：一盎司现货白银和期货白银的价格均超过了一桶原油。贵金属在避 险需求与结构性供应紧张推动下持续走强，而原油市场则在供需格局再平衡过程中承压。 白银价格的强劲上涨，主要得益于投资者和工业需求的双重驱动。在工业应用方面，从太阳能电池板到电动汽车等清洁能源领域，对白银的消耗 量持续攀升，为其提供了坚实的长期需求支撑。与此同时，全球原油市场面临供给过剩与需求结构转型的双重压力，2025年以来国际油价累计下 跌21%，已回落至疫情复苏后的低位水平。 在工业应用层面，白银因其优异的导电性与抗菌性，成为新能源转型与科技产业的关键材料。需求不仅来自传统珠宝与医疗器械制造，更显著的 推动力源自光伏、电动汽车及数据中心等高速增长领域。花旗分析指出，仅太阳能产业就已消耗全球白银年产量的近30%，凸显其结构性需求缺 口 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 价格快速上涨，警惕非理性风险 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-29 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 投资咨询证号：Z0023460 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅： 西北 复产小幅增加 ，下游 需求 增减不一 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）全国周产8.15 万吨，环比+1.68%；全国开炉243 台，环比+3台。 | | 供给端 | 偏空 | （2）主产区：新疆地区周产5.30 万吨，环比+2.75%，开炉数环比+6。云南地区周产0.43 万吨，环比-9.32%，开炉数环比-1。四川地区周产 0.22 万吨，环比-10.20%，开炉数环比-2。 | | | | （3 ...

Market Overview - The futures market for paraxylene (PX) is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 7330.0 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 2.14% [1] - As of December 24, Asian isomer MX increased by $5 to $723/ton FOB Korea, while Asian PX also rose by $5 to $880/ton FOB Korea and $901/ton CFR China [1] Production and Capacity - As of December 26, China's PX operating rate was at 88.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [1] - The operating rate for Asian PX was reported at 79.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [1] - In terms of imports, South Korea exported 283,000 tons of PX to China in mid-December, an increase of 8,000 tons year-on-year [1] Institutional Insights - Newhu Futures indicates that the PX fundamentals are relatively stable in the short term, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to persist until new capacity comes online before Q3 next year, leading to an optimistic market outlook for PX [3] - Guotai Junan Futures notes a marginal easing on the supply side, with several PX facilities undergoing maintenance or restarting, while domestic PX operating rates remain high at 88.2% [3] - The demand side shows a decrease in PTA operating rates to 70.9%, with several facilities either restarting or reducing output, indicating a potential shift in PX supply and demand dynamics [3]

黑色：期市氛围偏暖 黑色窄幅震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-29 长江期货股份有限公司产业服务总部 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 周度报告：期市氛围偏暖 黑色窄幅震荡 品种 基本面分析 展望 板块综述：上周黑色板块窄幅震荡运行，就指数涨跌幅度而言，品种间强弱关系为焦煤>热卷>焦炭>铁矿>螺纹，从整个期货市场 来看，氛围偏暖，商品价格普涨，有色板块一骑绝尘，能化板块多品种涨幅也在5%上下，黑色板块表现相对偏弱。宏观政策方面：国务 院常务会议，要求加快制定具体实施方案，靠前发力抓落实，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步。供需格局方面：钢材产量、表需同比都处 于低位，库存去化依旧顺畅，短期供需矛盾不大，随着钢厂盈利企稳，铁水产量止降，负反馈暂时难以顺畅进行。 | 钢材 | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格回升至电炉谷电成本以上，静态估值中性；驱动方面，重磅会议 | 震荡运行，短线交易。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 相继落地，预期平稳，短期没有增量政策出台，我国对钢铁实施出口许可证管理，钢材出口存在 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Natural Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price may rise due to commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals are weak. Consider short - selling around 15700 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is bearish, prices are in a downward trend with occasional technical rebounds. Look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3]. - Glass: The spot market is under pressure, and the 05 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom before positive drivers emerge [3]. Crude Oil Industry - International crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The supply is in excess, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel. Monitor EIA data and geopolitical developments [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: The short - term rebound space is limited. Consider short - selling EB02/03 above 6800 and narrowing the EB spread [6]. Polyolefin Industry - PP: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the 05 contract may face pressure if there are few planned maintenance in 1 - 3 months. - PE: Supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving, and short - term pressure is relieved [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The supply - demand is weak, inventory is high, and the rebound height is limited. - PVC: The spot fundamentals are weak, and it is difficult to support price increases [8]. Urea Industry - The short - term supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the futures main contract focusing on the 1700 - 1760 range [9]. LPG Industry No clear overall view provided in the given LPG - related content. Ester Industry - PX: The short - term supply - demand may weaken, with prices adjusting before the Spring Festival. Consider exiting long positions, short - selling for the aggressive, and low - buying in the medium - term. - PTA: Follow raw material fluctuations. Exit long positions, short - sell for the aggressive, and low - buy in the medium - term. - MEG: Overseas supply may shrink, but near - month inventory accumulation is expected, and price increases face resistance. - Short - fiber: Follow raw material fluctuations, and narrow the processing spread when it is high. - Bottle chips: Domestic supply is expected to increase, and compress the processing spread when it is high [13]. Methanol Industry - The port may face inventory accumulation in December, and the supply - demand balance may turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland price oscillates narrowly. Monitor inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [16]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned full - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 15200 to 15300, with a 0.66% increase. - The full - latex basis increased by 9.43% to - 480 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 50% to 15 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Consumption - Thailand's November production decreased by 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons. - China's November production increased by 23.70 thousand tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515227 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - North China glass price remained at 1010 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of glass decreased by 5.13% to 74 yuan/ton [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - Northwest soda ash price decreased by 4.21% to 910 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 3.24% to 179 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output decreased by 1.33% to 71.18 million tons [3]. Inventory - Soda ash factory inventory decreased by 4.06% to 143.85 million tons [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.57% to 60.64 dollars per barrel [4]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB decreased by 2.86% to 169.71 cents per gallon [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 3.9% to 133 dollars/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price increased by 2.4% to 6700 dollars/ton [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.4% to 13.93 million tons [6]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 6388 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. - The L15 spread decreased by 61.70% to - 76 yuan/ton [7]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 5.99% to 45.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 1.46% to 82.6% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% decreased by 0.7% to 2218.8 yuan/ton. - V2605 increased by 1.6% to 4832 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2% to 88.7%. - PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9% to 75.4% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 2.6% to 22.1 million tons [8]. Urea Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 01 contract of urea decreased by 0.48% to 1667 yuan/ton [9]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily output remained at 19.19 million tons. - Factory inventory decreased by 9.39% to 106.89 million tons [9]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract increased by 0.07% to 4238 yuan/ton. - The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.63% to 158 yuan/ton [11]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 1.69% to 24.1%. - Downstream PDH operating rate increased by 1.81% to 76.4% [11]. Ester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - CFR China PX increased by 2.0% to 918 dollars/ton [13]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price increased by 2.0% to 6570 yuan/ton [13]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.6% to 79.5% [13]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. - The MTO05盘面 increased by 13.18% to - 191 [14]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.28% to 40.397 million tons [15]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.46% to 77.99% [16].

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属价格强势突破，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the price of natural rubber rises due to the warming of commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended to try short - selling around 15,700 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 24th, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 15,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.68%. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.00%. Other varieties also showed different price changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 100.00%, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 83.33% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 48.30 thousand tons to 466.20 thousand tons, a decline of 9.39%. China's production increased by 23.70 thousand tons to 137.20 thousand tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.66 percentage points to 72.05%, while that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 61.95% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased by 16,339 tons to 515,227 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 tons to 58,968 tons, a decline of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the price of crude oil has been strengthening under the influence of geopolitics, but the geopolitical drive is still limited. The final price will return to be dominated by the oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation between the US and Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 24th, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14 US dollars per barrel to 62.24 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.22%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.03 US dollars per barrel to 58.35 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.05% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.39 cents per gallon to 174.71 cents per gallon, a growth rate of 0.22%, while NYM ULSD decreased by 3.30 cents per gallon to 215.76 cents per gallon, a decline of 1.51% [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread increased by 0.19 US dollars per barrel to 15.03 US dollars per barrel, a growth rate of 1.31%, and the US diesel crack spread decreased by 1.36 US dollars per barrel to 32.27 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 4.03% [3]. Group 3: Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton. This week, the supply and demand of styrene both increased. Although the price is boosted in the short - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited. EB02 is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 58.35 US dollars per barrel [5]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.8%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.2% [5]. - **Downstream Cash Flow and Inventory**: The cash flow of EPS decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.30 tons to 27.30 tons, a growth rate of 5.0% [5]. Group 4: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the main contract PG2601 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 4235 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The PG01 - 02 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 14.39% [8]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The FEI forward M1 contract remained unchanged at 531 US dollars per ton, and the CP swap M1 contract decreased by 1.4 US dollars per ton to 508 US dollars per ton, a decline of 0.27% [8]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio remained unchanged at 23.7%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 thousand tons to 261 thousand tons, a decline of 7.89% [8]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of downstream PDH increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, while the operating rate of downstream MTBE decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 68.9% [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: After the sharp rise of PX, be cautious about the current price. Do not rule out the possibility of the upstream price falling back due to substantial production cuts in the polyester sector. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. PX5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **PTA**: After the sharp rise following PX, be cautious about the current price. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. TA5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. EG5 - 9 can be in a short - position at high prices [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price has limited driving force and mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: PR unilateral trading is the same as PTA. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fee can be shorted at high prices [10]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged at 540 US dollars per ton [10]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 901 US dollars per ton. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a decline of 75.0% [10]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of PTA in East China increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5050 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.7%. The TA05 - TA09 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 20.5% [10]. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of MEG in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3653 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 2.2%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.7% [10]. Group 6: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, urea prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The main futures contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of equipment and the progress of downstream demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the 01 contract of urea decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1712 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The 01 contract - 05 contract spread increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 4.41% [11]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, and the price of动力煤坑口 (伊金霍洛旗) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.96% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of domestic urea remained unchanged at 19.19 thousand tons. The weekly production decreased by 5.20 thousand tons to 133.34 thousand tons, a decline of 3.75% [11]. Group 7: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price and basis of polyolefins changed little today. The market sentiment cooled down, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous period. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to face both cost reduction and profit compression, and the price center will further decline [12]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the L2601 closing price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 6343 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11%. The L15 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 47 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.97% [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia remained unchanged at 6120 yuan/ton, and the basis of North China LLDPE remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 1.22 percentage points to 82.6%. The enterprise inventory of PE decreased by 2.92 tons to 45.9 tons, a decline of 5.99% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry still has certain pressure. It is expected that the spot price of liquid caustic soda will be adjusted weakly and steadily in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the long - term [13]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC have weak support. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate in the range, and the price will weaken after a rebound [13]. Summary by Directory - **Spot and Futures Price**: On December 25th, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 15.6 yuan/ton to 2234.4 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The V2605 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4757 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.5% [13]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price of PVC in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 600 US dollars per ton, and the export profit decreased by 66.5 yuan/ton to - 20.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 145.1% [13]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.7 tons to 51.1 tons, a decline of 1.3% [13]. Group 9: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. The port accumulates inventory significantly, while the inland market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price fluctuates narrowly [14][15][16]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the MA2601 closing price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The MA15 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a decline of 13.16% [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol increased by 1.28 tons to 40.397 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The port inventory increased by 19.37 tons to 141.3 tons, a growth rate of 15.89% [15]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.36 percentage points to 77.99%, while the operating rate of overseas upstream enterprises decreased by 3.47 percentage points to 60.5% [16]. Group 10: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and the price will continue to fluctuate and bottom - out. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the rebound [19]. - **Glass**: The spot price continues to be under pressure, and the market is expected to continue to weaken and fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [19]. Summary by Directory - **Related Price and Spread**: On December 26th, the North China quotation of glass decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.98%. The North China quotation of soda ash remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 percentage points to 82.74%. The factory inventory of soda ash increased by 0.5 tons to 149.93 tons, a growth rate of 0.33% [19]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 14.26 percentage points to - 29.25%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area increased by 21.34 percentage points to - 0.28% [19].