Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate; soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly; and ferromanganese is expected to oscillate [6][8][9][10][14][15][17][18]. Core View of the Report - Affected by the news that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, the black building materials sector was strong on Monday. The main reason is that the black sector is in a vacuum period with limited trading drivers. The overall supply and demand of the industry have strengthened month - on - month, with no pressure on inventory, but the market's outlook for future demand remains pessimistic, and the market is in an oscillatory consolidation stage [1][2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are expected to remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals have increased seasonally, and port inventories have slightly increased. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventories, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Focus on the profitability and maintenance plans of steel enterprises [2]. Carbon Element - Recently, environmental and safety inspections in major production areas have become stricter, resulting in a continuous decline in coking coal production, but the overall supply contraction is limited. In terms of imports, the enthusiasm of traders for hauling is weak, and port clearance remains at a low level. On the demand side, coke production has declined from its high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprises' operations. In terms of inventory, the rigid demand for coking coal has declined, and the overall amount of downstream raw material replenishment demand is limited. The upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, and the structural inventory problem has not improved significantly. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, increasing the difficulty of downstream procurement bargaining. Some factories have plans to resume production, and a new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in Inner Mongolia in the second half of the month, so ferromanganese production may continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and the market sentiment for manganese ore has improved. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are poor, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average, and the terminal steel demand is about to enter the off - season. The downstream has a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and prices lack the impetus to rise [3]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken month - on - month, and the upstream inventory has accumulated, with off - season pressure still existing, although the sales in Shahe have slightly improved. On the supply side, a 1000 - ton production line has started producing glass, a 700 - ton production line has been cold - repaired, and four more production lines are waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure remains. The actual demand in the off - season faces certain pressure, the market price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price, and there are many emotional disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. As maintenance gradually resumes, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will continue to decline in the long term [6]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: This week, the overall supply and demand have strengthened month - on - month, but inventory is still being reduced. The main factor suppressing the market price is the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that the price will oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the price of finished products is under pressure. Electric furnaces are operating at a loss during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9]. - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market's expectation of price stability has increased, but there are still differences in views on the future. The coke enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is insufficient. There is downward pressure on coke prices in the medium term [10][11][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The market supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the high upstream inventory restricts the price increase. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly and stably [14]. - **Silicon Manganese**: There is an expectation of increased production, and the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, so the supply and demand tend to be loose. However, due to cost - price inversion, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices. There is an expectation of increased production from some manufacturers, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the short term [18].

农产品早报 2025-06-24 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 周一美豆小幅回落，交易天气较好及贸易战担忧，不过市场预期全球大豆新作产量可能有下降趋势，叠 加美豆估值略低，美豆整体偏震荡。国内豆粕期货回落，现货压榨量本周或创新高，累库压力增大，周 一国内豆粕现货下跌 50 元/吨，华东报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周港口大豆库存 783 万吨，油厂 豆粕库存 51 万吨。周一国内豆粕成交一般，提货仍较好。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程，不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动。 当前美 ...

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月23日 | | | | 寇帶斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13950 | 13950 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | 50 | -80 | 130 | 162.50% | | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13850 | -100 | -0.72% | 元/吨 | | 非标价差 | -150 | -180 | 30 | 16.67% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 48.05 | 48.30 | -0.25 | -0.52% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 57.75 | 57.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶 ...

| | | 铁矿 今日盘面震荡。 供应端，全球发运处于旺季，未来存在季末冲量预期，国内到港量阶段下降，根据船期推算未来将出现反 弹，港口库存预计将逐步止降转增，供应压力边际加大。需求端，终端需求进入淡季，钢厂仍有利润，主动减产意愿不强，铁 水产量变化不大，预计短期维持相对高位。宏观层面，国内仍然等待增量政策出台，外部地缘政治风险上升，市场短期不确定 性依然较强。我们预计铁矿走势以震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格震荡上行。铁水小幅回落，整体维持在241，焦炭存在第四轮提降预期，焦化利润有所收缩，焦化日产较年内高位有 所回落，持续性有待观察。焦炭整体库存小幅下降，贸易商采购意愿依旧较低。整体来看，碳元素供应端切较充裕，下游铁水 稳定在241以上，关税依旧对行情产生影响，受原油价格大幅上涨影响，焦煤价格有所反弹。焦炭盘面基本平水，在库存压力 下，焦炭价格一定程度上受到原油带动。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the intensified Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend, the crude oil price first soared and then declined, and the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly accordingly. The planned production cuts of bottle chips increased, and the polyester industry chain was under pressure due to the weakening demand expectation [1]. - Regarding the cost side, the recent oil price has risen sharply due to the intensified Middle - East conflict. If the conflict causes more damage to energy facilities or affects the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may face further upward risks; otherwise, the geopolitical premium may decline again. The gasoline cracking spread in the US has retracted, and the blending demand is not promising. The PX short - process plants may restart as the profit recovers [2]. - For PX, the PXN was 234 dollars/ton (with no change from the previous period). The PX load at home and abroad has generally increased recently, but it will decline again in July. The tight supply - demand situation needs further attention [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the main contract was 231 yuan/ton (a 6 - yuan increase from the previous period), and the spot processing fee was 310 yuan/ton (a 70 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The PTA load continued to increase this week, and the supply became more abundant. It is expected that the PTA spot price will oscillate following the cost side in the short term [3]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 90.9% (a 0.2% decrease from the previous period). The terminal orders have weakened again since late May, and the downstream operating rates have declined slightly. The polyester load has remained stable recently after a decline, and the demand is expected to be weak in the off - season [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit was - 26 yuan/ton (a 26 - yuan increase from the previous period). The price will remain high under the low inventory of short - fiber factories and the operation to maintain the processing margin [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 309 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip price increased following the raw materials, but the new order procurement enthusiasm of overseas customers was not high due to the high ocean freight in June. The inventory pressure of polyester bottle - chip factories has increased again. The production cuts of major factories are being implemented, and the processing fee is expected to face pressure in the short term [4]. - The trading strategy suggests that PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish in the short term under the Israel - Iran conflict, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, and further production - cut actions of polyester and the geopolitical conflict need to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - The report presents the trends of TA and PX main contracts, their basis and inter - period spreads, as well as the PTA East - China spot basis and the basis of 1.56D*38mm semi - dull pure - white short fibers [9][10][12]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes the toluene US - Asia spread, the spread between South Korean FOB toluene and Japanese CFR naphtha, and the PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - It provides information on the PTA loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [29][32][33]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory are presented [38][41][42]. Downstream Polyester Load - It shows the production and sales of filaments and short fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Also, the inventory days and profits of different types of filaments are provided [50][52][62]. PF Detailed Data - The report includes the polyester short - fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, the operating rates and production profits of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, and the spread between raw and recycled polyester short fibers [73][81][83]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It presents the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and the price spreads between different periods of bottle chips [90][92][97].

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

*业期现日报 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯华东现货价 | 7920.0 | 8035.0 | -115.0 | -1.4% | | | EB2507 | 7589.0 | 7640.0 | -51.0 | -0.7% | | | EB2508 | 7482.0 | 7526.0 | -44.0 | -0.6% | 元/吨 | | EB基差 | 331.0 | 395.0 | -64.0 | -16.2% | | | EB月差 | 107.0 | 114.0 | -7.0 | -6.1% | | 本乙烯海外报价&进口利润 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯CFR中国 | 930.0 | 942.0 | -12.0 | -1.3% | 美元/吨 | | 苯乙烯FOB韩国 | 920.0 | 932.0 | -12.0 | -1.3% | | | 苯乙烯 ...

煤焦：库存压力较大 盘面反弹表现乏力 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 煤焦 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 16 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦价格整体低位震荡运行，反弹表现乏力。现货端， 产地焦炭价格第 3 轮调降后暂稳运行，自 5 月中旬至此 3 轮累计下跌 170-185 元/吨，后期仍存降价预期；焦煤现货同样保持弱稳运行，尚未 有反弹表现。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 近期随着煤价的持续下跌，国内煤矿生产延续小幅下滑趋势，但尚未 出现大面积停减产，暂无法改变上游累库现状。上周煤矿端精煤库存 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term market sentiment has warmed up, which provides some support for coal prices. However, fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coking coal and coke have declined slightly at high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high, so the price rebound lacks momentum [1] Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the overall price of coking coal and coke has shown a bottom - rebound trend, mainly driven by factors such as large previous price drops, short - covering, valuation repair, and improved foreign trade situation. But the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price rebound is still under pressure [1] Spot Market - On the spot side, the coke price at the origin has been stable after the third round of price cuts since mid - May, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton in these three rounds, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts. Coking coal spot has also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [1] Supply - With the recent rebound in coal prices, there have been continuous news about supply contraction. Domestic coal mine production has continued a slight downward trend, but there has been no large - scale production suspension or reduction, so it cannot change the upstream inventory accumulation situation. This week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons, and the inventory level is still at an absolute high [1] Demand - The demand for coking coal and coke has continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate is relatively slow. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills dropped to 2.418 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 605,000 tons. The overall profitability rate of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in the start - up rate, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines [1]

中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-11 宏观扰动频繁，⿊⾊在成本⽀撑附近震 荡运⾏ 中美谈判消息繁多，⿊⾊系价格在成本⽀撑位附近震荡运⾏。临近淡 季，建材需求弱势不改，⼯业材需求也⾯临⾼位回落压⼒，市场前景 依然偏悲观。⽬前电炉和部分⾼炉已亏损，铁⽔产量拐点显现。海外 矿⼭财年末冲量，虽然是预期内动作但仍对市场情绪产⽣利空作⽤。 不过钢⼚整体盈利率持稳，减产空间暂时有限，负反馈条件尚不成 熟。价格在⽀撑位附近探涨等待利好契机，但⽬前上⽅压制⼒度仍较 强。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⿊⾊：宏观扰动频繁，⿊⾊在成本⽀撑附近震荡运⾏ 中美谈判消息繁多，黑色系价格在成本支撑位附近震荡运行。临近淡 季，建材需求弱势不改，工业材需求也面临高位回落压力，市场前景 依然偏悲观。目前电炉和部分高炉已亏损，铁水产量拐点显现。海外 矿山财年末冲量，虽然是预期内动作但仍对市场情绪产生利空作用。 不过钢厂整体盈利率持稳，减产空间暂时有限，负反馈条件尚不成 熟。价格在支撑位附近探涨等待利好契机，但目前上方压制力度仍较 强。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上 ...