1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the context) [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Caustic Soda: The rating symbol is not clearly interpretable [1] - Soda Ash: The rating symbol is not clearly interpretable [1] - Glass: The rating symbol is not clearly interpretable [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the context) [1] - Pure Benzene: No clear rating provided in a comparable format 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products. Overall, different products face diverse situations in terms of supply and demand, cost, and inventory. Some products show short - term bullish trends under the influence of factors such as geopolitical situations, macro - sentiment, and production changes, while others are under pressure due to factors like weakening demand and high inventory. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose during the day. Market supply has no obvious pressure, production enterprise quotes are slightly adjusted, and the premium situation in real - order auctions has decreased. Downstream factories are more wait - and - see, mainly purchasing at low prices based on rigid demand [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures rose during the day, but fundamental support is limited. For polyethylene, supply pressure will increase with new device production and restart of maintenance devices, and demand is weakening as the year - end approaches. For polypropylene, the number of parking devices has increased recently, and the overall spot supply pressure is not large, but downstream demand is weak [2]. Polyester - Polyester had a smooth de - stocking before the festival. PTA has no new capacity in the first half of the year, so it is a long - position allocation. However, demand is currently declining, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, considering PX maintenance and polyester load - increasing expectations, there are opportunities for long positions in PX processing margins and positive spreads [3]. - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly last week. There are expectations of both supply and demand decline, and inventory is expected to accumulate around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, there are expectations of concentrated maintenance and demand recovery. In the long - term, it is still under pressure due to capacity growth [3]. - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventories. Downstream orders are weak, and profits are thin. Affected by raw material price increases, downstream increased备货 last week, and prices rose following raw materials [3]. - Bottle - chip production decreased, and processing margins have been repaired under low - load and relatively low inventory levels. In the long - term, there is still capacity pressure [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The upward trend of pure benzene futures prices slowed down, and the basis of East China spot narrowed. The demand for pure benzene increased due to the recovery of downstream styrene profits and production. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile and bullish, and in the long - term, pure benzene is expected to gradually reduce inventory [5]. - Styrene futures fluctuated during the day. The cost support strengthened due to the rise of crude oil and pure benzene. The supply decreased due to device maintenance, and the demand was basically stable, so the price rose strongly. However, the futures price is far from the moving - average system, and there is short - term pressure as the Spring Festival stocking period is approaching the end [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market rose sharply due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation in Iran. Overseas device operation rates remained low, and port inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, the market is expected to be bullish under the boost of the macro - environment, and in the long - term, port inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - Urea futures were stable in a fluctuating manner, and spot prices showed a differentiated trend. Before the Spring Festival, industrial downstream demand is expected to decline, and large - scale spring plowing fertilizer demand has not yet started. The supply pressure remains high, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Factory inventory decreased, but social inventory increased, and the overall inventory still has pressure. Exports are good, but domestic demand is average. It is expected that the price center will rise this year [7]. - Caustic soda showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Liquid caustic soda prices have not yet stabilized and continue to decline. The industry inventory is under high pressure. The profit of chlor - alkali integration is acceptable, and the operation rate has rebounded. The follow - up production reduction needs to be continuously tracked [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Weekly inventory increased slightly, and the overall pressure is high. Supply pressure is large, and downstream purchasing sentiment is poor. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate with the macro - environment, and in the long - term, it faces over - supply pressure [8]. - Glass showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Spot prices in some regions were raised today. Inventory fluctuates slightly, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation as downstream enterprises approach the holiday. Currently, the valuation is low, and it may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8].

Group 1: Industry Inventory Trends - As of December 2025, the national passenger car inventory stands at 3.65 million units, a decrease of 140,000 units from the previous month and an increase of 600,000 units compared to December 2024, indicating a year-end inventory decline trend [1][18] - The inventory level supports a future sales period of 66 days, which is an increase of 20 days compared to December 2024's 46 days [1][31] - The industry inventory saw a peak of 3.94 million units in December 2022, followed by a gradual decline to 3.25 million units in April 2023, before rising again to 3.92 million units in November 2023 [25] Group 2: Retail Sales Performance - In December 2024, the national passenger car market retail sales reached 2.3 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 13% but a month-on-month increase of 3% [6] - The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 23.78 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 4% [6] - The retail sales growth rate fluctuated throughout the year, starting from a negative 12% in January to a positive 11% in June, followed by a gradual slowdown in the latter half of the year [4][6] Group 3: Export Trends - In December 2025, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) totaled 590,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 46% but a month-on-month decrease of 2% [11] - The total passenger car exports for the year reached 5.74 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [11] Group 4: Production Insights - December 2025 saw passenger car production at 2.79 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a month-on-month decrease of 10% [14] - The total production for the year amounted to 29.61 million units, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 10% [14] Group 5: Market Forecast and Sentiment - The market sentiment has shifted from optimism to caution, with a predicted optimism level of 14% for January, indicating a challenging outlook for manufacturers [23] - The current inventory level of 3.65 million units suggests significant pressure for inventory digestion in the coming months [23][31]

沪铜日内持续偏强震荡，收盘上涨0.64%。期市氛围偏暖，周边品种普遍上行，沪铜走势受到提振，不 过最近全球铜显性库存整体回升，期价涨幅有限。 最近铜矿端再传扰动，由于持续近三周的劳资罢工，位于智利北部的Capstone Copper公司旗下的 Mantoverde铜金矿的生产已经停止，其海水淡化工厂关闭。不过铜矿商自由港麦克莫伦公司周四表示， 旗下旗舰矿山、全球第二大铜矿Grasberg的约85%产能，将于今年下半年恢复生产。当前铜矿端偏紧状 态延续已久，国内冶炼厂生产压力增加，但产量仍保持扩张状态，最近铜价对矿端干扰的反应不大。 昨日LME铜库存增加8850吨至168250吨，为近八个月高位，注册仓单同步增加，注销占比回落。周中 国内部分地区到货有限，且下游逢低采购，国内精铜社会库存并未继续累积。新湖期货表示，昨日 LME库存大增8850吨，其中美国新奥尔良库存增加5875；由于COMEX近月2601合约低于LME铜价，套 利空间驱动下，美国市场的铜被交仓到LME新奥尔良仓库；但由于远期COMEX铜价仍高于LME，因此 美国市场大量的库存仅是在不同的仓库中流转，并不会流出至非美市场；非美市场铜库存压力并不大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is under multiple pressures, and the supply surplus in 2026 will be the core driver of oil prices. The rebound space of oil prices is limited without clear production - cut signals or significant geopolitical escalation [4]. - PX supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually, and PTA prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost in the short term. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of the industrial chain before the Spring Festival [4]. - The supply pressure of MEG has been alleviated, but it is in a short - term supply - demand weak pattern. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and the supply surplus situation is difficult to change in the medium term [5]. - The supply - demand of BZ has marginally improved, and EB prices have strengthened. Although the current pressure of BZ is still large, there is a risk of correction, and the overall view is cautiously bullish [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The crude oil market is influenced by inventory pressure, supply return, and the decline of geopolitical risk premium. Cold weather may support demand in the short term, but the demand improvement is difficult to change the overall supply - demand pattern. The supply surplus in 2026 will be the core driver of oil prices, and the rebound space is limited without clear signals [4]. PX & PTA - Domestic PX maintenance plans are being implemented, and the load has dropped from a high level. The processing fee has rebounded to around $350/ton. The supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually. PTA device load has slightly decreased, and there is a weakening demand signal at the terminal. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost in the short term [4]. - The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 2.08% from last week. The Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 79.31%, down 0.53% from last week. The PX - naphtha spread is around $350/ton. The new PX capacity will be added in the second half of next year, and the maintenance plan in the second quarter is relatively large. The near - term industrial situation has weakened [8]. - The PTA spot market price is 5,068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate is 75.83%, down 1.39% from last week. The factory inventory days are 3.62 days, the same as last week. The polyester production reduction plan has increased, and the PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost [13]. MEG - The spring maintenance of domestic ethylene glycol syngas devices, combined with the overall strengthening of the coal and polyester sectors, has alleviated the supply pressure. The port inventory has increased again, but the import volume is expected to decline in January - February. The short - term supply - demand is weak, with strong support at around 3,600 yuan/ton, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5]. - The price of ethylene glycol in East China is 3,652 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from last week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 61.06%, down 1.63% from last week. The port inventory in East China is 740,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level under the future supply - demand weak expectation [20]. BZ & EB - The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and the port inventory has started to decline from a high level. The downstream demand has been boosted. The supply of styrene is expected to shrink, and the price has strengthened. The downstream 3S shows resilience, and the inventory pressure has been gradually relieved. The current pressure of pure benzene is still large, and there is a risk of correction, with a cautiously bullish view [5]. - The pure benzene operating rate is 72.37%, down 1.89% from last week. The styrene operating rate is 69.63%, down 1.23% from last week. The BZN has rebounded to around $160/ton. The pure benzene and styrene have both reduced inventory. The downstream PS, ABS, and EPS have different operating rate changes, and the 3S production and sales have improved [29]. Polyester and Downstream - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry is 83.49%, down 3.21% from last week. The inventory of polyester staple fiber and filament has decreased. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving sample enterprises is 51.20%, down 3.74% from the previous period. The terminal demand has weakened, and the market atmosphere has become colder [24].

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 22 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周四持仓量增仓 5016 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 615894 手。呈现止跌企稳，日均线跌破 5 日均线，10 日均线支撑，30 日均线，60 日均线，但在 3100 整数关口附近企稳，最低 3112，最高 3135，收于 3124 元/吨，上涨 11 元/吨，涨幅 0.35%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3270 元/吨， 相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 146 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 22 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 9.25 万吨至 199.55 万吨，公历同比上升 25.42 万吨，产量本周同比增幅显著，反应钢 厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关注产能恢复力度能否持 续。 四、短期观点总结 当下螺纹供给端复产动能较强，需求端受节前冬储备货有支撑存在韧性，节后还 需要关注终端需求的恢复程度，总库和 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar support oil prices, but inventory accumulation limits the upside potential [2]. - Precious metals are likely to remain strong in the medium - term, with short - term adjustments to fix overbought technical indicators [3]. - Most commodities are expected to show a pattern of short - term fluctuations, and investors need to pay attention to supply - demand changes, geopolitical risks, and policy impacts [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The US strengthens military deployment in the Middle East. Kazakhstan's oil production may be suspended. The IEA raises the 2026 demand forecast, with reduced first - quarter supply surplus. Venezuelan exports are slow, and oil price rebound is limited [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are dominant. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term but pressured in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has winter demand support but faces supply pressure [22]. - **Asphalt**: Military actions in the Middle East and oil price rebounds drive asphalt up. There are concerns about future raw material shortages [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated downward. The medium - term strength remains unchanged, with short - term adjustments [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell. The US market premium cooled, and a short - position strategy is recommended in the domestic market [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The 23,800 - yuan level is supported, and it's advisable to wait and see [5]. - **Zinc**: Supply - side pressure is limited, but high prices have a negative impact on consumption. Zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, with a medium - term short - selling strategy [8]. - **Lead**: The lead price fluctuates between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. Low - buying is recommended [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level. The negative feedback risk of stainless - steel consumption is increasing, but the short - term is still dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is maintained [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices opened high and closed low. A strategy of selling call options at a high level is recommended [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has risen sharply, but the downstream acceptance is low. The price is in a high - level shock, and risk prevention is needed [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures fluctuate. The supply reduction expectation is controversial, and the demand has no clear increase. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the implementation of major factory production cuts should be tracked [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is light. Production is expected to decline, and the futures fluctuate around 50,000 yuan/ton. Wait for the exchange's guidance [14]. - **Iron and Steel** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rebounded slightly. Rebar demand is weak, and hot - rolled coil de - stocking is slow. The market will fluctuate in a range [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipping volume decreased, and the domestic arrival volume declined. The port inventory is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [16]. - **Coke**: The price rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and it is likely to follow a weak - shock pattern [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and it is likely to follow a weak - shock pattern [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated downward. Manganese ore prices rose, and iron - water production decreased. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated downward. Affected by policies, the demand is resilient, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The spot price is weakly stable. Production increases, demand starts, and the long - term decline space is limited [24]. - **Methanol**: The futures fluctuate strongly. Demand decreases, inventory accumulates, but there is support from reduced imports in Q1, and it is expected to be in a stalemate [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - session price rose. Supply decreases, demand increases, and the short - term trend is strong [26]. - **Styrene**: Some domestic producers' sales are good, and the supply is tight, providing support [27]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Supply and demand are both weak. Some markets have supply shortages, but downstream demand is weak [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is weak, and there is a possibility of capacity reduction. Caustic soda is also weak with high inventory [29]. - **PX & PTA**: There is pressure in the short - term, but there are opportunities for PX processing spreads and month - spreads in Q2 [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. There is a short - term inventory accumulation expectation, but improvement is expected in Q2 [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chips**: Short - fiber follows cost fluctuations, and bottle - chip processing spreads have improved, but long - term capacity pressure exists [32]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybeans fluctuate strongly at the bottom. South American weather is improving, and the focus is on export and weather [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: US bio - fuel policies are positive for soybean oil. Indonesian palm oil policies are uncertain, and Malaysian palm oil supply - demand improves marginally [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The external market rises, the domestic supply is tight in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [38]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of domestic soybeans fell. Pay attention to policy and spot guidance [39]. - **Corn**: The supply is relatively sufficient. The futures are expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to sales progress and auctions [40]. - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Pigs**: The futures fell for three consecutive days. The short - term rebound may end, and there may be a low point next year [41]. - **Eggs**: The futures fluctuate. The long - term fundamental improvement is expected, and a long - position strategy is recommended on dips [42]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton fell, and Zheng cotton fluctuates at a high level. The demand is stable, and the supply reduction policy has uncertainties [43]. - **Sugar**: International production varies, and domestic production progress is different. The short - term price faces pressure [44]. - **Apples**: The futures price回调. The focus is on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [45]. - **Timber**: The price is low. Low inventory provides support, and it's advisable to wait and see [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures fell slightly. The demand is weak, inventory accumulates, and it's advisable to wait and see [47]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Spot prices are expected to decline, and near - term contracts have limited downside. The market will enter an observation period before the Spring Festival, and the focus of far - term contracts is the resumption of navigation [21]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and the short - term trend is expected to be upward. The medium - term trend depends on the transition to profit - driven [48]. - **Treasury Bonds**: 30 - year treasury bond futures rose. Pay attention to potential curve - flattening opportunities and market warming signals [49].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆市场短期陷入震荡僵局，多空因素交织导致方向性驱动不足。美国国内压榨需求因生物燃 料生产旺盛而保持强劲，成为价格重要底部支撑；然而南美大豆供应竞争压力持续，上周美豆对华出口装 运量环比显著下滑 32%，削弱了需求端的乐观预期。国内上游油厂因压榨量不高且豆粕库存连续下降，油 厂挺价心态坚决；另一方面，下游节前备货以滚动采购为主，追高意愿有限，且部分地区物流受阻影响现 货提货。市场成本有支撑，但供应宽松预期与宏观不确定性形成压制，短期豆类期价维持震荡偏弱运行。 专业 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-21 期货震荡偏弱，现货谨慎观望 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪偏弱，玻碱震荡下跌 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃盘面震荡下跌，现货方面，现货市场报价持稳，厂家产销表现平淡，期现市场交投氛围冷清。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾虽有所好转，但浮法玻璃终端刚需淡季难有突破。短期在投机性需求提升和节后 旺季预期的共同作用下，玻璃期货维持升水。考虑到玻璃面临化解高库存的任务，因此依旧需要通过压价达到进 一步减产的目的。后期关注玻璃冷修和投机情况。 纯碱方面，昨日纯碱盘面震荡运下跌，现货方面，市场以观望谨慎态度对待，下游企业刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾有所增加，新投产能叠加部分装置恢复带动产量增加，供应维持高位，高供应持续压 制纯碱价格；需求端，下游浮法玻璃刚需一般，光伏玻璃需求改善有限，刚需持稳而投机需求不足。后续若基本 面延续弱现实格局，叠加期现贸易商主动抛货离场的悲观情绪传导，纯碱将面临进一步下行压力，关注浮法玻璃 产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon is currently experiencing a double reduction in supply and demand, with high inventory difficult to deplete, but strong cost support below, so the short - term market is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the start - up changes in the north [2]. - Polysilicon currently has weak supply and demand and inventory pressure, but the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve due to the shutdown of leading enterprises, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract oscillated, closing at 8,605 yuan/ton on January 16 [2]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 421 oxygen - passed was 9,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [6]. Supply - In Xinjiang, there are both production increases and decreases, with an overall reduction. It is rumored that ore mining is restricted due to weather, and large factories may shut down about 30 furnaces. In Yunnan, production is mainly for integrated supporting or long - term order delivery, and in Sichuan, only a sample large factory is in production. The overall output of industrial silicon has continued to decline month - on - month [2]. - As of January 16, 2026, the number of operating furnaces of industrial silicon nationwide was 227, a decrease of 7 from the previous week; the operating rate was 28.16%, a decrease of 0.87%; the weekly output was 85,700 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [17]. Demand - The start - up of polysilicon is weak, with leading enterprises gradually shutting down from the middle of the month, and the output is expected to decline. The start - up of organic silicon remains stable, and is expected to remain stable or decline slightly before the Spring Festival. The price of aluminum alloy ingots has risen with the price of aluminum, but the downstream die - casting enterprises have limited acceptance, and the start - up expectation has been lowered. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [2]. Cost - The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [2]. Inventory - As of January 15, the total social inventory of industrial silicon nationwide was 555,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [2]. Spread - As of January 16, 2026, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [10]. Polysilicon Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type dense material was 59,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract corrected from a high level, closing at 50,200 yuan/ton on January 16 [3]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of N - type re - fed material was 61,000 yuan/ton, the price of N - type mixed material was 56,500 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type granular material was 58,000 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [13]. Supply - The expected output of polysilicon in January is 104,800 tons. Due to the gradual shutdown of some leading enterprises from the middle of the month, the output in February may be less than 90,000 tons [3]. Demand - Polysilicon enterprises' quotations remain high at 63 - 65 yuan/kg, but downstream silicon wafer enterprises are holding down prices and waiting and seeing. Actual transactions are mainly for executing previous orders and a small number of scattered orders. Although there is a rush - to - install demand before the export tax rebate is cancelled in April, the terminal is still in the off - season, the price increase has not been passed on to silicon wafers, the crystal - pulling link is suffering serious losses, and the acceptance of high - priced polysilicon is low. In November, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,055.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27%; the export volume was 3,230.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 109% [3]. Cost - The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [3]. Inventory - As of January 16, 2026, the polysilicon factory inventory was 297,100 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons from the previous week [21]. Downstream Silicon Wafers - As of January 16, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.375, 1.375, 1.475 and 1.675 yuan/piece respectively, unchanged from last week. The silicon wafer market is generally stable, leading enterprises' quotations remain stable, the transaction prices of second - and third - tier enterprises have declined slightly. In the terminal off - season, buyers strongly resist high prices, battery factories have good profits and maintain small - order procurement for rigid demand [24]. Battery Cells - As of January 16, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.405, 0.405, 0.405 and 0.405 yuan/watt respectively, an increase of 0.02 yuan/watt from last week. The battery cell market continues to strongly support prices. Exporters are locking in export orders in advance to cope with the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy on April 1, and the export price is significantly higher than the domestic sales price [28]. Components - As of January 16, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.72, 0.735, 0.72 and 0.735 yuan/watt respectively, an increase of 0.035, 0.03, 0.035 and 0.03 yuan/watt from last week. Affected by the upcoming cancellation of the export tax rebate policy, component manufacturers generally raised their quotations [32]. Organic Silicon - As of January 16, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week. Recently, the profit of organic silicon monomer factories has improved, and the start - up has remained stable [35]. Aluminum Alloy - As of January 16, 2026, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The price of aluminum continues to be strong, but the downstream die - casting enterprises have limited acceptance, and the start - up expectation of alloy enterprises has been lowered [39].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have seen a significant increase of over 30% from mid-December to early January, driven by news of Indonesia's potential reduction of nickel ore quotas for 2026, although prices are currently under pressure due to overall high levels in the non-ferrous metals market [3][15]. Nickel Ore Policy Developments - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) plans to strategically adjust the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to between 250 million and 260 million tons, with existing quotas allowed to continue until the end of Q1 to ensure production continuity during the review period [4][16]. - The price of nickel ore has increased, with a recent transaction of 1.3% grade nickel ore from the Philippines at FOB $38, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase [4][16]. - Domestic nickel ore imports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 40.169 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, with nearly 91% sourced from the Philippines [4][16]. Nickel Iron Price Trends - In December 2025, nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia was 180,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.6% month-on-month and a 4.8% year-on-year growth [6][18]. - Domestic high-nickel pig iron prices have risen, with factory prices reaching 1,010-1,020 RMB per nickel, while Indonesian nickel pig iron FOB prices increased to $128 per nickel [6][18]. - Nickel pig iron imports for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 10.056 million tons, a 26.7% increase year-on-year, with approximately 97% of imports from Indonesia [6][18]. Refined Nickel Inventory Pressure - Domestic refined nickel production in December 2025 was 29,058 tons, a slight increase from November but a 16.4% year-on-year decline, with total production for the year at 410,800 tons, a 22.8% increase [8][20]. - As of January 16, total nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 48,180 tons, with registered warehouse receipts at 41,985 tons, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [8][20]. - LME nickel inventory has also been on the rise, with the latest total at 285,700 tons, suggesting a globally loose supply of refined nickel [8][20]. Demand Stability and Weakness - Nickel demand is primarily driven by stainless steel, ternary batteries, and nickel alloys, with stainless steel being the most significant sector [10][22]. - In December 2025, domestic production of 300 series stainless steel was 1.7472 million tons, a slight decrease from November but a 5.6% year-on-year increase [10][22]. - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has rapidly increased to 33,600 RMB per ton, indicating some purchasing demand from nickel salt manufacturers despite overall weak speculative demand [10][22]. Summary - The overall environment shows increased volatility in silver and copper prices, which may influence nickel prices [12][24]. - Indonesia's announcement regarding potential reductions in nickel ore quotas is still developing, which could impact market sentiment [12][24]. - Despite the recovery in sentiment across the nickel supply chain, there remains significant pressure from excess inventory, particularly in refined nickel [12][24].