Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the inventory is expected to maintain a destocking trend. The cost is affected by the weak global oil supply - demand and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks, while the short - term deterioration of the Middle East geopolitical situation still supports oil prices. Technically, L2601 should pay attention to the support around 7200 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) is 7270, down 17; 1 - month contract is 7270, down 17; 5 - month contract is 7276, down 23; 9 - month contract is 7204, down 26. The 9 - 1 spread is - 66, down 9. The volume is 324382 hands, up 41667; the open interest is 468822 hands, up 28457. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30386 hands, down 8401 [2]. Spot Market - LLDPE(7042) average price in North China is 7300.87 yuan/ton, down 17.83; in East China is 7384.76 yuan/ton, down 0.95. The basis is 13.87, up 53.17 [2]. Upstream Situation - FOB: middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 64.19 dollars/barrel, up 0.44; CFR: middle price of naphtha in Japan is 597.38 dollars/ton, up 3.5. The middle price of ethylene CFR Southeast Asia is 831 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Northeast Asia is 841 dollars/ton, down 2 [2]. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 78.68%, down 0.04 [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 49.56%, down 0.29; of PE pipes is 30.17%, down 0.5; of PE agricultural film is 17.46%, up 2.93 [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 5.85%, down 0.14; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.47%, up 0.08. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.35%, up 0.01; of at - the - money call options is 9.36%, up 0.03 [2]. Industry News - From August 22nd to 28th, China's polyethylene production was 61.78 million tons, down 0.50% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.72%, down 0.04 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.3%. As of August 27th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 42.70 million tons, down 14.92%; as of August 22nd, the social inventory was 56.20 million tons, up 0.99% [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (one star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (three stars, indicating a clear bullish/bearish trend with good investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is generally weak, with prices of most products under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances and other factors [2][3][5] - Different sub - industries have their own supply - demand characteristics, and price trends are affected by factors such as production capacity changes, seasonal demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed down. Tight supply - demand and pre - stocking by downstream due to upcoming events support price hikes, but limited by downstream profit compression [2] - Polyolefin futures had narrow - range fluctuations. Polyethylene supply pressure eased with increased maintenance, while polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand fundamentals remain weak [2] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to fall. Domestic supply increased, demand was weak, and the BZ - NAP spread narrowed. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in Q3 and pressure in Q4 [3] - Styrene futures closed down. With weak raw material support and sufficient supply, there is still room for price decline without effective trading volume growth [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. Terminal demand is rising, but the actual improvement is limited, and they are expected to continue range - bound [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded to the top of the range, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, and it is expected to maintain range - bound [5] - Short fiber supply - demand is stable, and prices mainly follow costs. There is a positive outlook for the peak season, and long - position allocation can be considered if demand improves [5] - Bottle chip industry faces long - term over - capacity pressure, and the processing margin is low [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol futures had low - level fluctuations. Port inventory reached a high, and the supply is expected to increase after the end of autumn maintenance. Attention should be paid to the macro - environment and the restart of MTO plants [6] - Urea futures had a weak performance. Spot trading improved slightly, but supply is high, and there is a risk of price fluctuations due to export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices weakened. With new capacity coming online and weak demand, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices fell from a high. Although there is support from demand, the supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to face pressure at high levels [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices weakened. Supply decreased slightly, but inventory is high, and it is recommended to short at high prices [8] - Glass futures rose due to delivery. Spot price decline slowed down, and there is a possibility of price support during the peak season [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly indicated by stars, but the analysis implies a short - term neutral with a potential short - selling opportunity later [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is in the process of development [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a more distinct bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, showing a more distinct bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market shows different trends. Crude oil may turn to a volatile trend before the geopolitical risk further intensifies. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have a relatively positive fundamental situation. Asphalt has strong resistance to decline and potential demand. LPG has a short - term repair market but faces long - term overseas production increase pressure [2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC10 contract rising 0.42% during the day. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 2.392 million barrels more than expected, and gasoline and refined oil inventories also decreased, indicating demand resilience at the end of the summer peak. Brent near $70/barrel has priced in the bullish impact of supply risks related to the deadlock in Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Before the geopolitical risk further intensifies, crude oil may turn to a volatile trend. Pay attention to the opportunity to short - sell crude oil again after the support of peak - season factors fades [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Oil prices continued to correct, and fuel - related futures also declined under pressure. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. At the same time, the enthusiasm of domestic refineries to produce marine fuel was also low, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year as of July. The on - land fuel oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was relieved. The overall fundamentals are more positive than before. Due to the geopolitical conflicts in Russia and Iran, high - sulfur resources are supported by geopolitical premiums, and the decline is relatively restrained, and the FU crack spread is still supported [3] Asphalt - Today, crude oil led the decline in oil product futures, but asphalt futures prices rose inversely, and the crack spread once exceeded 350. After experiencing the unexpectedly high production in September and the sharp decline in oil prices, asphalt's resistance to decline in oil products continued. In August, the shipment volume of sample refineries increased by 88,000 year - on - year, breaking the growth bottleneck from June to July. Leading indicators such as the issuance volume of special bonds for new toll roads and the cumulative domestic sales volume of road rollers increased significantly year - on - year, indicating that there is still potential demand for asphalt. The latest data shows that both factory inventories and social inventories have decreased significantly. The low inventory supports the spot and futures prices of asphalt. The BU2510 contract has reached over 3,500 yuan/ton, and the crack spread has rebounded significantly [4] LPG - The international market rebounded under the support of import demand. Currently, the domestic arrival volume continues to rise, and due to the large proportion of low - price goods in the early stage, the sales pressure is limited. Pay attention to the pressure on the domestic chemical industry after the increase in import costs. With the stabilization of crude oil, the naphtha - propane price difference remains at an advantageous level, and the high chemical demand can be maintained in the short term. The short - term bearish pressure on the spot has been released, and the market maintains a repair trend without further pressure from crude oil. In the long term, there is still pressure from overseas production increase, which relatively suppresses the far - month contracts, and the market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda spot is expected to continue rising steadily, but the futures may face short - term resistance. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to have short - term low - buying opportunities, and the PX - SC spread can be expanded. PTA should be observed in the short term, with low - buying opportunities and TA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Short - fiber and bottle - chip strategies are similar to PTA [6]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene trends are expected to be weakly volatile, and BZ2603 should follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. Styrene has a weak short - term drive, and EB10 can be short - sold on rebounds [11]. Urea Industry - The urea market is weakly volatile, with high supply and weak demand. The fundamentals are difficult to reverse [14][15]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has significant port inventory accumulation, weak basis, and the demand is affected by the off - season. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [18]. Polyolefin Industry - The overall supply pressure of polyolefins is not large before mid - September, and the LP01 spread can be held [44]. Crude Oil Industry - The short - term oil price rebounds, but the geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainties remain. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [46]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda increased by 1.2%, while the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 1.1%. Some futures prices and spreads also changed [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda and PVC industry operating rates decreased, and the profit of external calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 8.0% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly, but the PVC pre - sales volume decreased by 8.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda and PVC upstream factory inventories decreased, while the PVC total social inventory increased by 3.1% [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of some upstream and downstream products of the polyester industry chain changed, such as the price of Brent crude oil increasing by 1.2% [6]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 8.6% [6]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the Asian PX operating rate increasing by 2.2% [6]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: The prices of upstream and downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, such as the CFR China pure benzene price decreasing by 0.9% [11]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.2%, while the styrene inventory increased by 10.8% [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain changed, such as the domestic hydrogenated benzene operating rate decreasing by 8.0% [11]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: The urea futures prices and spreads changed, and the spot prices in different regions remained stable [14]. - **Supply**: The domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.81%, and the factory inventory increased by 6.05% [14]. - **Demand**: The demand is affected by the agricultural season and industrial factors, and the compound fertilizer inventory is high [14]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: The methanol futures and spot prices decreased, and the inventory increased significantly [16][17]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed slightly [18]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: The futures and spot prices of polyolefins decreased, and the spreads between some contracts changed [44]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and the PE social inventory increased slightly [44]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE and PP operating rates changed, and the downstream weighted operating rates increased slightly [44]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between some contracts also changed [46]. - **Inventory**: The EIA US crude oil and refined product inventories decreased [46]. - **Operating Rates**: The US refinery operating rate decreased to 94.6% [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - Specific varieties: iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all rated as "oscillation" [6][7][10][11][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black price is in a weak oscillation. Although the demand is weakly expected in the peak season, the cost supply is disturbed, and there is a driving force for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. The follow - up should focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. - After the decline of the glass futures and spot market sentiment, the supply is expected to be stable, and the short - term is expected to oscillate widely. The long - term price center will decline [13][14]. - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to the same period last year, with relatively stable total supply [2]. - Demand: The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased significantly. There is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased this week, and the total inventory slightly declined [2]. - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - Supply: Production in some mines is restricted, and coal mine safety inspections are increasing. Although the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port remains high, overall, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [2]. - Demand: The eighth round of coke price increase is restarted, and the demand for coking coal has slightly declined in the short term. Downstream purchases on demand, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but there is no obvious inventory pressure [2]. - Outlook: Before the parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increase to be implemented, the futures market is still supported [11]. Coke - Supply: After the seventh - round price increase was fully implemented, the profits of coking enterprises recovered. As the parade approaches, the start - up of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production [10]. - Demand: Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but affected by the parade, the start - up of some steel mills in North China will also be restricted, and the demand is affected [10]. - Outlook: The game of the eighth - round price increase continues. Before the parade, the futures market is still supported, but the actual implementation is difficult [10]. 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - Supply: The production level has reached a high point this year, and the market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profits are good, but as the parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, and the short - term demand for manganese silicon is expected to decline [2]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited due to cost support, but the long - term price center may decline [16]. Ferrosilicon - Supply: Manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated, and production has gradually reached a high level [17]. - Demand: Steel production will decline slightly during the parade, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking will decline. The magnesium market has supply pressure and weak demand [17]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited, but the long - term price center is expected to decline [17][18]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable [2]. - Demand: The demand in the off - season has declined, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month. The inventory days of raw sheets have reached a high point this year, and the mid - stream and downstream lack the ability to replenish inventory [13]. - Outlook: The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13][14]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The long - term supply pressure still exists, and short - term production is affected. It is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future [15]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain stable, and the demand for light soda ash is flat, with weak downstream replenishment sentiment [15]. - Outlook: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [15]. 3.6 Steel - Supply: The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. The supply of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little [6]. - Demand: The demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains at a high level, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: The short - term futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and the follow - up should focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [6]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased week - on - week [8]. - Demand: The profit of electric furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process furnaces has slightly increased, and the total daily consumption has increased slightly [8]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8].

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The energy market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. Different energy products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4][5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC10 contract dropping 3.3% intraday. From August 27, the US imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil, and Indian refineries will reduce Russian oil purchases after October. Brent crude near $70/barrel has priced in the positive impact of Russian oil supply risks, and oil may turn to a sideways trend before geopolitical risks further intensify [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - After a significant oil price correction, fuel - related futures declined under pressure. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales and China's bonded marine fuel bunker demand decreased year - on - year, but domestic refinery production enthusiasm was also low, with supply down 19% year - on - year. Fuel oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased, and the inventory pressure eased. High - sulfur resources are supported by geopolitical premiums, and the FU crack spread is still supported [3] Asphalt - After experiencing an unexpected increase in September production and a significant oil price decline, asphalt showed strong resistance in the oil products market, and the crack spread strengthened. In August, the shipment volume of sample refineries increased by 8% year - on - year, and leading indicators related to demand were positive, indicating potential demand. Factory and social inventories decreased, and low inventories supported prices. The BU2510 contract was supported at 3470 yuan/ton, and the crack spread rebounded significantly today [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international LPG market rebounded due to import demand, and domestic arrivals continued to increase. With low - cost imported goods in the early stage, sales pressure was limited. The naphtha - propane spread remained at an advantageous level, and high chemical demand could be maintained in the short term. The spot market's negative pressure has been released, and the market is in a repair phase. In the long term, overseas production increase pressure exists, causing the far - month contracts to be under pressure, resulting in a near - strong and far - weak market structure [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The pure benzene market maintains a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The supply is driven by the stable operation of refineries and the recovery of hydrobenzene plants, while the demand shows a mixed performance. Overall, the short - term fundamentals have marginally improved, but the contradiction between high latent inventory and insufficient terminal demand remains [3]. - The styrene market rebounded with the cost in the short - term. However, the medium - term trend depends on the implementation of maintenance and the recovery of terminal demand. The supply is currently high, and the demand improvement is limited, but the situation may marginally ease in September [4]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On August 21, the styrene main contract closed up 0.05% at 7289 yuan/ton with a basis of 26 (+36 yuan/ton), and the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.08% at 6200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On August 21, Brent crude closed at 62.7 (+0.9 dollars/barrel), WTI at 66.8 (+1.1 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 6110 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.3 tons (-0.3 tons, -1.1% MoM), Jiangsu port inventory was 16.2 tons (+1.3 tons, +8.5% MoM), and pure benzene port inventory was 14.4 tons (-0.2 tons, -1.1% MoM) [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production may decrease in late August due to plant maintenance. Currently, the weekly output is 37.1 tons (+0.2 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S vary. EPS is 61.0% (+2.9%), ABS is 71.1% (+0%), and PS is 57.5% (+1.1%), showing a continuous increase [2]. (2) Views - **Pure benzene**: The supply is relatively stable with some increase, and the demand shows a mixed trend. The cost is supported by the short - term oil price rebound, but the long - term oil price may face pressure. Overall, the short - term fundamentals improve, but problems remain [3]. - **Styrene**: It rebounded with the cost in the short - term. The supply is high, and the demand improvement is limited. In September, the supply may contract due to maintenance, and the demand may enter the peak season, which may ease the supply - demand contradiction [4]. 2. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: The prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot, as well as related spreads, are presented, showing different trends of increase and decrease. For example, the styrene futures main contract increased by 0.05%, and the pure benzene futures main contract decreased by 0.08% [6]. - **Output and Inventory**: The output of styrene and pure benzene in China increased slightly, and the inventory situation varied. Styrene port inventory increased, while factory inventory and pure benzene port inventory decreased [7]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rates of styrene and its downstream products, as well as pure benzene downstream products, changed. Some increased, such as EPS and PS, while others decreased, such as aniline and caprolactam [8]. 3. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply affects the cost of naphtha, and the import volume is expected to reach a record high in 2025 [9]. - The global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, having a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chains [9]. - India plans to accelerate the expansion of petrochemical production to cope with China's leading position in the global petrochemical market [9]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the historical data of pure benzene and styrene prices, spreads, inventory, and capacity utilization rates, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union data [14][21]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Taiping Bird (603877.SH) in the first half of 2025 shows significant declines in both revenue and net profit, indicating substantial pressure on its core business profitability [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.86% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 77.71 million yuan, down 54.61% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was only 13.709 million yuan, a drastic drop of 78.91% year-on-year [1] - Non-recurring gains and losses amounted to 64.0026 million yuan, accounting for over 82% of the net profit, primarily driven by government subsidies of 69.6006 million yuan and fair value changes of financial assets of 12.9547 million yuan [1] Brand Performance - Revenue from the main brand PEACEBIRD women's wear was 1.060 billion yuan, down 10.45% year-on-year [1] - PEACEBIRD men's wear revenue was 1.180 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.42% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from the youth brand LEDIN and children's wear brand MINIPEACE fell by 7.18% and 3.73% respectively, with no core brand achieving positive growth [1] Channel and Inventory Management - The company accelerated adjustments in offline channels, closing 194 stores in the first half of the year, reducing the number of franchise stores from 2,245 to 2,095, a net decrease of 150 [1] - Overall revenue from offline channels declined by 5.13% year-on-year, with franchise store revenue experiencing a significant drop of 13.63% [1] - As of the end of June, inventory stood at 1.515 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, but the inventory impairment provision increased to 187 million yuan [1] Cash Flow and Shareholder Activity - The net cash flow from operating activities turned negative, amounting to a net outflow of 262 million yuan [1] - Taiping Bird Group Co., Ltd. increased its holdings by 9,173,100 shares, while executives including Chen Hongchao and Wang Mingfeng collectively reduced their holdings by nearly 4.7 million shares [1] - Chen Hongchao, the former general manager, notably reduced his holdings by 72.4 million yuan and announced plans to further reduce up to 14.13 million shares, approximately 3% of the total share capital, between August and November 2025 due to personal funding needs [1]

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 20, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 120,330 yuan/ton and closed at 119,930 yuan/ton, a change of -0.48% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 63,676 lots and an open interest of 50,856 lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel switched to the 2510 contract. The night session opened flat at 120,430 yuan/ton, fluctuating between 120,200 - 121,080 yuan/ton. Affected by weak new - energy demand and stainless - steel inventory pressure, it failed to break through the key resistance level of 121,000 yuan/ton. The night session closed down 0.33% at 120,450 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,118 lots, about 15% less than the previous day. The day session briefly rose to 120,940 yuan/ton but then fell to an intraday low of 119,620 yuan/ton due to increased domestic inventory and the continued decline of LME nickel. The final closing price dropped to 120,060 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46%, with a trading volume of 77,982 lots, about 23% more than the night session. LME nickel fell 0.73% and 0.60% on August 19 and 20 respectively, reaching a two - week low of 15,060 US dollars/ton [2] - The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see attitude, and the nickel ore price is stable. In the Philippines, the FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore resources in September is mostly 32 US dollars. The downstream nickel - iron market is stabilizing, but iron plants are still in losses and are not willing to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in August decreased slightly by 0.03 - 0.04 US dollars; the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the premium in the second phase of August to decline [3] - In July 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 38,164 tons, a 124% increase from the previous month and a 703% increase from the same period last year. Among them, the imports of other unwrought non - alloy nickel were 35,506 tons, accounting for 93% of the refined nickel imports. Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was fair. The spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel were stable, with a slight increase in the spot premiums of Jinchuan and Russian nickel [3] Strategy - In the short term, nickel prices will be weak, with large inventory pressure and a significant increase in imports. In the medium term, the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and the upside space is limited. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 12,925 yuan/ton and closed at 12,820 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 149,736 lots and an open interest of 135,764 lots [5] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,000 yuan/ton in the night session, then quickly dropped to an intraday low of 12,855 yuan/ton due to the decline of LME nickel, and finally closed down 140 yuan at 12,885 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.07%, with a trading volume of 134,000 lots, about 18% more than the previous day. The night session showed the characteristic of short - side active position - increasing, and the net short positions of the top 20 seats increased to 11,449 lots. The day session briefly rebounded to 12,895 yuan/ton but then fell again due to the accumulation of stainless - steel social inventory and the expectation of the release of Indonesian nickel ore quotas. The final closing price dropped to 12,820 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.50%, with a trading volume of 149,700 lots, a five - day high. The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2,215 tons to 44,298 tons, a decline of 4.76% [6] - The spot market trading of stainless steel is increasingly light, mainly concentrated on low - price resources. Affected by the decline of the futures market and the completion of downstream restocking, there is a strong bearish sentiment in the future market. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,050 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is also 13,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 310 - 510 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 927.5 yuan/nickel point [6] Strategy - Currently in the traditional off - season of consumption, with weak demand and no fundamental change in the fundamentals, it is expected that the stainless - steel price will fluctuate weakly in the near future. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. Most products are under downward pressure, and the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on fundamental and technical analyses [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: After the Trump - Russia meeting in Alaska, the geopolitical disturbance weakened, and the crude oil returned to the fundamental logic. With the approaching seasonal demand inflection point and the accelerating OPEC+ production increase, the crude oil surplus pressure will gradually materialize [2]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of crude oil is in a medium - term/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, and the downward path remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above the hourly level is around 490. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - Fundamental analysis: The supply side has a high weekly operating rate of 78.18%, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August and September. The demand side has a stronger demand recently, but the high port inventory and new production capacity pressure still lead to a large pressure of inventory accumulation. It is still regarded as bearish [5]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of styrene is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, and the downward path continues. The short - term pressure above is around 7270. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The raw materials in Thailand remain stable during the rainy season in Southeast Asia. The short - term downstream tire operating rate has improved, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently, which provides short - term positive drivers. However, the high tire inventory still suppresses the expected increase in demand, and the medium - term fundamental driver of rubber is still downward [9]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of rubber is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It failed to break through the short - term pressure of 15950 after rising and falling back. The pressure level remains valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15950 [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Fundamental analysis: The high production and weak demand situation of synthetic rubber in the medium - term remains unchanged. The high production of butadiene rubber and the large inventory of downstream tires, especially semi - steel tires, are difficult to solve. After the new device is put into operation in the third quarter, the supply pressure of raw material butadiene also remains unchanged. Recently, the butadiene port inventory has returned to the average level in the past five years after rapid accumulation, and the short - term positive factor has disappeared. Coupled with the collapse of the upstream crude oil price, the synthetic rubber still maintains a bearish view [14]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It failed to break through the short - term pressure of 11950 after rising and falling back. The pressure level remains valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - Fundamental analysis: The supply of PX has increased slightly, the PTA operation is stable, the PX fundamentals have weakened, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. However, the polyester load is expected to increase from August to September, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. The movement of the cost - end crude oil still needs to be concerned [17]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PX is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, but the hourly line stood above the short - term pressure of 6780 during the session, and the downward structure may be tested. The strategy is to stop profit for short positions in the hourly cycle as planned [17]. 6. PTA - Fundamental analysis: The supply - side operation has no significant change, but the downstream demand is expected to improve in the peak season from August to September. Coupled with the continuous low processing fee of PTA itself, the supply - demand expectation is strong, but the change of the cost - end crude oil needs to be noted [21]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PTA is in a short - term downward structure. After intraday oscillation, it failed to break through the pressure and fell back. The short - term pressure above still focuses on 4760. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [21]. 7. PP - Fundamental analysis: The supply pressure increases due to the new production capacity put into operation in August. The downstream operation has improved, but the inventory in each link of the industrial chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. The movement of crude oil also needs to be concerned [22]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PP is in a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today, and the downward trend may accelerate. The short - term pressure above temporarily focuses on 7050. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22]. 8. Methanol - Fundamental analysis: After the Iranian device resumed operation, a large number of shipments arrived at the port recently, and the port inventory has increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. The short - term inventory accumulation speed is fast, which exerts pressure. At the same time, the domestic production remains at a high level, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, and the downstream raw material inventory is high. The overall fundamentals are still driven bearishly [25]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of methanol is in a medium - term downward/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. The intraday is volatile. Specifically, it reached a new low with increased positions at night and then rebounded and repaired during the morning session. The short - term pressure above focuses on 2425 (01 contract). The strategy is to partially stop profit for short positions in the hourly cycle and continue to hold the remaining short positions [25]. 9. PVC - Fundamental analysis: The supply - side operating rate has continued to rise to a year - on - year high of 78.8%. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward real - estate market and the off - season, and the inventory continues to accumulate, indicating a bearish fundamental driver [29]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of PVC is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today, and the short - term downward trend may accelerate. The short - term pressure above has moved down to 5060 (01 contract). The strategy is to hold short positions [29]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Fundamental analysis: The low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical products, but the inventory accumulation expectation also limits the upward space. The starting time of inventory accumulation needs to be concerned [31]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of EG is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It is regarded as a rebound today but failed to break through the pressure, and the short - term downward structure remains valid. The short - term pressure above is 4385. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [31]. 11. Plastic - Fundamental analysis: The supply pressure is relatively large due to the increase in operation and the new production capacity put into operation. The downstream operation remains at a year - on - year low level, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is reflected. The supply - demand driver is bearish [34]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of plastic is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The downward trend in the hourly level is confirmed after reaching a new low today. The short - term pressure above is referred to as 7345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [34]. 12. Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: The supply side continues to increase, the speculative demand of glass on the demand side has weakened except for the rigid demand, the inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on the soda ash supply [39]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of soda ash is in a downward structure. After a long - negative line broke through the 15 - minute - level oscillation today, the downward trend may accelerate. The structures of the 09 and 01 contracts are still differentiated, still showing a pattern of weak 09 and strong 01. The short - term pressure level of the 09 contract is 1285. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 09 contract [39]. 13. Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The operation of alumina on the demand side remains at a high level, and the operation of viscose staple fiber in non - aluminum demand has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operation of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [43]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of caustic soda is in an oscillatory structure. After a long - negative line today, the hourly - level upward trend may end. First, look for short - selling opportunities in the 15 - minute downward structure. The short - cycle pressure above the 15 - minute level focuses on 2615. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities when the rebound fails to break through the pressure in the 15 - minute period [43].