Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall terminal demand is average, and the prices of various black building materials show different trends, with some fluctuating up and others down [1][3][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,117 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,282 yuan/ton. The overall spot steel transactions were good, the market rose, and low-price speculation and futures-spot purchases increased [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply-demand fundamentals of building materials continue to improve. Although consumption has declined, production has also decreased, and inventory pressure has further eased. The improvement of the supply-demand fundamentals of plates is insufficient, and high inventories continue to suppress plate prices. Appropriate production cuts are needed to reduce the pressure of seasonal inventory accumulation in the later stage. With the continuous cooling in various places, the off-season of building material demand has arrived [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral, the trend is expected to be volatile; for cross-period, cross-variety, futures-spot, and options, there are no specific strategies [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The price of iron ore futures rose slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port were relatively strong. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid needs. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major domestic ports was 715,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 37.12% [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: This week, the shipment of iron ore increased slightly, and the daily average hot metal output continued to decline. Currently, the iron ore price remains at a relatively high level. However, due to market factors, the inventory of some iron ore varieties is locked, keeping the price high. If external factors are removed later and the inventory is released intensively, the iron ore price will face certain pressure [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral, the trend is expected to be volatile; for cross-variety, cross-period, futures-spot, and options, there are no specific strategies [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward yesterday. In the spot market, coal prices in the main production areas continued to decline. Currently, end-users such as the chemical industry maintain on-demand procurement, and most coal mines continue to reduce prices to destock. Some steel mills plan to lower the price of wet-quenched coke. The transaction of imported Mongolian coal continued to be weak, dropping to around 960 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: For coking coal, with the sharp decline in the futures market, the expectation of a decline in coke prices is strong, and the support of rigid demand for raw materials is weak. In the short term, coal prices will still fluctuate weakly and stably. For coke, affected by environmental protection factors, the supply has shrunk slightly. Coupled with the maintenance plans of some steel mills, the demand for coke has weakened. In the future, attention should be paid to the hot metal output and the trend of coking coal prices [5][6] - **Strategy**: For coking coal and coke, the trend is expected to be volatile; for cross-variety, cross-period, futures-spot, and options, there are no specific strategies [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, coal prices in the main production areas continued to fluctuate downward. Currently, the market is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude. End-users with rigid demand purchase on demand, and some reduce prices and quantities. Under the spread of pessimistic sentiment, coal prices will fluctuate downward in the short term. In the port market, the recent weak trend has continued, and the price center of gravity has continued to move down. The inventory of northern ports has continued to rise, while downstream end-users have not increased their purchases. Traders are pessimistic, and it is still difficult to sell at low prices, with difficult transactions. In terms of imports, both domestic and foreign trade prices have fallen rapidly recently, and the price of imported coal has fallen faster, still maintaining a cost-effective advantage [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Recently, pessimistic sentiment has spread in the market, and coal prices have fluctuated. In the long term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non-power coal [8] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [8]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 李馨 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9465元/吨，较前一日变动-41元/吨，幅度-0.43%。现货方面，山东栖 霞80# 一二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1265，较前一日变动 +41；陕西洛川70# 以上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1065， 较前一日变动+41。 近期市场资讯，晚富士库存富士主流行情维持稳定，西部个别产区一般以下货源价格略偏弱，整体交易 多按需进行，出货仍不显快。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农两级货源为主，成交有限，甘肃部分产 区客商调花牛及好货出库，成交尚可；部分客商包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区零星出库，外贸渠道 小果走货放缓，少量维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源基本尚未开始交易。栖霞80#一二级片红果农 意向成交价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#、70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5 元/斤不等。庆阳出库价格3.8-4. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil overnight retraced its previous gains without any news, remaining in a sideways pattern awaiting geopolitical drivers. The geopolitical situation suggests a pessimistic outlook for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and there is an upward revision risk if the negotiation fails again. There is also an expectation of an escalation of risks in the Caribbean region, which could lead to a pulse - like upward movement [1][3]. - For the chemical sector, the aromatics (PX, PTA, EB) that were previously bullish have seen a weakening of the upward drive as overseas crack spreads have declined significantly. However, PX still has a relatively healthy fundamental situation, and styrene has seen short - term supply - demand improvement due to inventory reduction [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Logic**: The impact of supply - demand and macro - drivers on the crude oil market is still weak, with a mid - term oversupply expectation. However, there was trading based on supply - demand changes after last week's unexpected inventory build in EIA data. Macro factors are currently bullish, and geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. Short - term outlook is bullish but difficult to trade, and there will be mid - term short - selling opportunities after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply has decreased due to more maintenance after a significant profit decline, leading to inventory reduction and supply - demand improvement. However, further upward movement requires support from crude oil prices. Mid - term inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high risk of inventory over - build if demand remains weak after the New Year [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait for a pull - back without breaking the support at 6520 and then look for a long - entry opportunity [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There is no major contradiction in the short term. Tire demand has limited growth potential, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia, with normal inventory build - up in Qingdao. The market should be viewed with a sideways outlook [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core factor is the price of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved as downstream replenished inventory due to low butadiene prices, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [11]. PX - **Logic**: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. However, PX supply - demand remains strong, with high operating rates, no new plant commissioning in the short term, and rising downstream PTA operating rates. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 6700 and look for opportunities to add positions after the pull - back ends [14]. PTA - **Logic**: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. PTA is still reducing inventory, and short - term supply - demand pressure is low. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract) and look for a second long - entry opportunity after the pull - back ends [18]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol operating rates remain high, and downstream demand is weak. Although port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed, and inventory is still at a high level. The previous upward drive has ended, and the supply - demand logic is still weak [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [24]. PVC - **Logic**: There are few future maintenance plans, and high operating rates are maintained. However, there is an increasing expectation of production cuts due to falling profits. Demand from the downstream real estate sector is weak, and social and factory inventories are high. The valuation is low, and there is no value in short - selling [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates are high due to the resumption of previously shut - down plants and new capacity additions. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory build - up pattern continues. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 3720 [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 6670 [32]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, and downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing demand. Although the downward fundamental drive remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions is decreasing [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a stop - profit at 1155 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply operating rates remain high, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Alumina demand has weakened due to reduced production, and inventory has reached a new high. The supply - demand drive is downward, but there is no space for short - selling before a significant rebound [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 2135 [37].

12月9日，观察者网获悉，小米中国区近期开启一系列人事调整，涉及手机、汽车、大家电等核心运营 类岗位。 原销售运营一部总经理一职由小米集团高级副总裁，中国区总裁王晓雁兼任；任命江苏分公司总经理郭 金保担任销售运营二部总经理，向王晓雁汇报，同时郭金保继续兼任江苏分公司总经理。 原小米汽车部销交服部总经理张健任新零售部总经理，向王晓雁汇报，汽车销交服部总经理由夏志国担 任，同时夏志国继续兼任汽车销交服部销售运营部总经理；任命何俊伶担任甘青宁分公司总经理，向王 晓雁汇报。 此外，近日，著名乒乓球运动员樊振东前往小米深圳国际总部参观时，也是由王晓雁出面。 有知情人士称，此次人事调整与小米近期中国区业绩"承压"有关，可以理解为王晓雁亲自下场抓业绩。 受外部环境影响，小米近期开始出现汽车、手机、大家电订单增长放缓的情况。11月，一份小米内部的 通知显示，2026年小米之家的发展核心将从"规模扩张"转向"质量提升"，将有序关闭部分低效且亏损的 门店，以帮助经销商及时止损，将资源聚焦于高潜力门店。 部分经销商称，受外部环境影响，小米近期开始出现汽车、手机、大家电订单增长放缓的情况，其中不 少同行出现空调"压仓"的情况，部分经 ...

【#小米中国区多人员职务调整#，涉及手机、汽车、大家电业务】12月9日，智通财经独家获悉，小米 中国区近期开启一系列人事调整，涉及手机、汽车、大家电等核心运营类岗位。原销售运营一部总经理 一职由小米集团高级副总裁，中国区总裁王晓雁兼任；任命江苏分公司总经理郭金保担任销售运营二部 总经理，向王晓雁汇报，同时郭金保继续兼任江苏分公司总经理。 原小米汽车部销交服部总经理张健任新零售部总经理，向王晓雁汇报，汽车销交服部总经理由夏志国担 任，同时夏志国继续兼任汽车销交服部销售运营部总经理；任命何俊伶担任甘青宁分公司总经理，向王 晓雁汇报。 对此消息，截至发稿小米暂未回应智通财经。 多位知情人士跟智通财经确认，小米集团原销售运营二部总经理刘耀平，销售运营一部总经理孙昊已从 原岗位调任。部分知情人士对智通财经表示，此次的调整跟小米近期中国区业绩"承压"有关，可以理解 为王晓雁亲自下场抓业绩。（界面） 部总经理孙昊已从原岗位调任。部分知情人士对界面新闻表示,此次的调整跟小米近 期中国区业绩"承压"有关，可以理解为王晓雁亲自下场抓业绩。 界面新闻了解到,江苏分公司总经理郭金保此前就曾在运营二部担任副总经理一职, 负责过大家电业 ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 需求：需求季节性提振有限，样本屠宰企开工率 34.12%，较上月微降 0.30 个百分点；鲜销率 均值 85.70%，环比下滑 0.75 个百分点，批发市场白条销量难形成有效拉动，终端消费承接力 不足。 供给：全国重点省份养殖企业生猪计划出栏量环比涨 3.20%。年底规模企业冲刺出栏计划，前 期二次育肥猪源集中出栏，全国生猪均重达 123.68kg，大猪供应偏多，整体供应压力较大。 生猪 库存：屠宰企业主动入库积极性低，但猪肉供应偏多导致鲜销困难，部分企业被动入库，冻品 库存呈 "入库量大于出库量" 的增加态势，库存压力抑制企业补库意愿。 利润：养殖端处于微亏状态，在猪价持续承压的情况下，虽然养殖成本有所下降，但利润空间 难以有效修复。当前市场缺乏推动价格强势回升的动力，预计短期养殖利润将继续承压。 结论：供需失衡格局短期难扭转，12 月价格将低位震荡、短暂回弹后承压回落，养殖端微亏持 续，需 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

黑色产业链日报 2025/12/03 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda futures market is experiencing a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to 2157.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.18% [1] Inventory and Production - As of November 27, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises with a capacity of 20,000 tons or more reached 46.98 million tons (wet tons), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.89% and a year-on-year increase of 87.95% [2] - The average utilization rate for caustic soda production was 85.0%, up 0.4% from the previous week, with increases noted in North China, Central China, and East China regions [2] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The top 20 futures companies for caustic soda held a total of 178,200 long positions and 197,800 short positions, resulting in a net position of -19,600, which decreased by 1,030 from the previous day [2] - The market is characterized by a significant accumulation of inventory due to relaxed supply and moderate downstream demand, leading to a downward trend in caustic soda prices [4] Industry Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, the overall supply of caustic soda is expected to be high in December, with production capacity utilization likely to increase due to the restart of some facilities in East and North China [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates a weak trend for caustic soda, with high inventory pressure and insufficient downstream demand, while the integrated profit from chlorine-alkali remains low [4]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月03日 (原油) API 数据显示美国成品油及原油库存增加。外盘油价周二下跌逾1%，市场在俄乌冲突局势与供应过 剩之间，俄罗斯里海管道联盟表示自11月中旬起进行维护的SPM-3预计将在未来七天内恢复运行， 恢复进度快于原计划。消息面对油价更多是阶段性提振，基本面供需盈余扩大仍决定油价中枢存下 行压力。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡，盘中波动较大。白银刷新历史新高后涨势趋缓,黄金突破前高阳力前贵金属整体 仍以震荡对待谨慎追高。铂年内供应存缺口,把供需预期紧平衡,走势上铂强于肥。关注今晚美国 ADP就业和ISM非制造业PMI数据。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜震荡收跌，逐渐靠向短期均线，LME现货升水持平68美元。沪铜在前期成交密集区8.83- 8.85万有一定韧性。国内现铜昨报88660元，上海铜升水扩至120元，洋山铜溢价扩至38美元。多单 依托MA5日均线持有。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝高位震荡。过去两日主要地区铝锭社库连续两日小幅增加，现货贴水略有扩大。铝市基本 面矛盾有限，季节性库存表现中性，需求缺少亮点但具备韧性。沪铝震荡测试前高22000 ...