（文章来源：新华财经） 俄罗斯央行此前预计第二季度俄罗斯经济增速为1.8%，俄经济发展部预计今年俄罗斯GDP将增长2.5% 左右，而央行预测增速在1-2%之间。 新华财经莫斯科8月15日电（记者包诺敏）俄罗斯联邦统计局初步估计，2025年第二季度俄罗斯GDP增 速从第一季度的1.4%放缓至1.1%。 ...

在华尔街与高盛持相似观点的同行并非少数。CNBC网站14日报道称，尽管投资者对周二相对温和的消 费者价格指数报告表示欢迎，但经济学家预计通胀的最大影响尚未显现。摩根大通经济学家费罗利表 示："关税可能会使美国GDP增速下降1%，并使通胀上升1%—1.5%，且部分影响已经显现。鉴于今年 关税涨幅远超美国战后以来的任何时期，其对消费者价格的传导程度仍存在很大不确定性。"瑞银高级 经济学家罗斯也说："我们预计，随着企业将更高成本转嫁给消费者，通胀将继续呈逐步上升趋 势。"（倪浩） 高盛经济学家大卫·梅里克周三在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，不管特朗普是 否有异议，高盛对研究结论充满信心，"我们坚持这份研究结果，"梅里克说，"如果最近的关税与2月份 最早加征的关税呈现相同模式，那么到秋季时，我们估计消费者将承担大约三分之二的成本。" 此前特朗普坚称关税正带来数万亿美元收入，辩称支付大部分账单的是外国企业和政府而非美国家庭。 周二他指责高盛在市场影响和关税效应方面始终判断错误。 【环球时报综合报道】据美国《财富》杂志13日报道，面对美国总统特朗普的公开声讨，华尔街投行高 盛经济学家当地时间周三在回 ...

然而，在短期内，通胀上升可能抑制消费者支出，并在今年余下时间拖累经济增长。摩根大通预计，对 GDP(其中三分之二来自消费)的冲击将"略低于1%"。 通胀将攀升 经济学家们认为，随着关税实施前企业提前准备的库存逐步消化、有效关税税率不断攀升、以及企业越 来越不愿意承担关税带来的更高成本，在今年剩余的时间里，消费者将越来越明显地感受到价格上涨的 压力。 摩根大通美国首席经济学家Michael Feroli表示："关税可能会使GDP减少1%，并使通胀上升1%至 1.5%，其中部分影响已经发生。""关于关税成本向消费者价格传导的程度存在很大不确定性，因为今年 的关税上调幅度远高于二战后美国的任何经验。" 多数人预计，随着关税政策逐步明朗化、有效关税税率大约升至18%(年初约为3%)并固化，价格将至少 稳步攀升，但仍有一些限制因素。瑞银高级经济学家Brian Rose指出："随着关税开始传导至零售价格， 核心通胀的下降趋势似乎被打破。""我们预计通胀将继续逐步上行，因为企业会将更高的成本转嫁出 去，但住房通胀的放缓以及日益紧张的消费者支出应能部分抵消关税的影响。" 没有人预测通胀会失控，更多是预测出现0.3%-0.5% ...

（原标题：菲2025年GDP增速难达目标上限） 据菲《商业世界》8月11日报道，菲今年GDP增速难达政府6.5%的增长上限。菲二季度GDP 增速5.5%，上半年GDP增速5.4%，若全年要实现目标上限，下半年需7.5%增速，难度较 大。主要风险为美国对菲商品加征19%关税、全球经济放缓及外劳汇款回流趋缓等。惠誉集 团旗下研究机构BMI预计菲今年GDP增速约5.4%，多家机构亦下调或维持较温和预测；菲政 府基建加速与央行降息或为有限支撑，但外部与投融资疲弱仍将带来经济下行风险。 ...

上述数据共同反映出，特朗普关税政策导致商业不确定性加剧，从而拖累经济。下周起，大多数国家面 临的关税将升至两位数水平。 高盛的报告暗示，特朗普可能还需要为今年更多糟糕的数据做好准备。企业投资预计将以年化0.6%的 速度下降，部分原因是企业在关税上调前提前采购设备后开始削减支出。Jan Hatzius补充称，投资也将 受到"政策不确定性和对经济前景担忧"的拖累。 尽管消费者和企业支出预计仍将保持疲软，但高盛的报告指出，企业补库存以及贸易逆差的缩小可能在 短期内为美国整体GDP提供一些支撑。高盛预计，贸易逆差将从2024年底相当于GDP的3.1%缩小至 2025年底的2.4%，这是因为高关税可能减少进口，而美元走弱以及其他国家的报复措施有限有助于支 撑美国出口。 （原标题：高盛预警：关税冲击+消费投资双疲弱 美国Q4 GDP增速或骤降至1.1%） 智通财经APP获悉，高盛警告称，美国经济可能在未来几个季度进一步失去动能，此前公布的就业报告 显示，关税带来的压力正在加剧。高盛在一份报告中预测，2025年第四季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)预 计仅同比增长1.1%，远低于该行估计的2%的潜在增长水平。 高盛首席经济学家 ...

Economic Growth Insights - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3%, significantly above the expected 2.6% and a recovery from the previous quarter's -0.5%[6] - Personal consumption increased by 1.4% compared to the previous quarter's 0.5%, while private investment saw a sharp decline of -15.6% from a prior growth of 23.8%[6] - Domestic final sales, which exclude trade, inventory, and government impacts, recorded a mere 1.2% growth, down from 1.9%, indicating a weakening underlying economic momentum[6] Consumption and Investment Trends - Personal consumption, a critical component of GDP, showed a slight recovery but remained low at 1.4%, with goods outperforming services[6] - Private investment's significant contraction of -15.6% contributed to a 3.1% drag on GDP, with both residential and non-residential investments shrinking for two consecutive quarters[6] - The decline in consumer confidence and income growth is expected to further suppress consumer demand moving forward[6] Inflation and Policy Outlook - The PCE price index for Q2 2025 rose to 2.6%, exceeding expectations, while the core PCE index reached 2.8%[6] - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident in consumer prices, with notable increases in durable goods and services[6] - The market may be overestimating both economic growth and inflation, with potential for monetary policy easing in 2026, contrary to current market pricing[6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. economy showed resilience in Q2 with a GDP growth rate rebounding to 3.0% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis, while year-over-year growth remained steady at 2% [3][4][5] - The report highlights a significant drop in non-farm employment numbers for July, with only 73,000 jobs added, down from a revised 147,000 in June, indicating a potential weakening in the labor market [16][22] - The report notes that the U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the PCE index, has increased, with personal consumption expenditures rising from 4.66% to 4.75% year-over-year, suggesting some resilience in consumer spending [15][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of tariff policies, indicating that the average effective tariff in the U.S. may rise to around 17% following the implementation of the latest tariffs, which could lead to an increase in inflation and a decrease in GDP growth [27][24] - The report mentions that the U.S. stock market has experienced volatility, with major indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ seeing declines of 2.92%, 2.36%, and 2.17% respectively, reflecting market concerns over economic data [29][2] - The report suggests that the healthcare sector is one of the few areas showing positive performance in the Hong Kong stock market, while sectors like materials and technology are facing declines [2]

Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The average effective tariff rate on imported goods in the U.S. has reached 18.3%, the highest since 1934, indicating extreme levels of trade protectionism [1] - The new tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41%, will affect 69 trading partners, with 40 countries facing a 15% tariff rate [3] - The tariff policy is projected to reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026, and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 [3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Price Increases - The tariffs are expected to increase average household spending in the U.S. by $2,400 by 2025, with significant impacts on clothing prices, which may rise by 38% [3] - Short-term price increases for consumer goods are anticipated, with footwear prices potentially increasing by 40% [3] Group 3: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 100,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [4] - Employment data for May and June was revised downwards, with a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [4] - The weak employment report has increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, raising expectations from 40% to 63% [4] Group 4: Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced a significant decline, with a total market capitalization loss exceeding $1 trillion due to the new tariffs [5] - European stock markets also fell sharply, with major indices dropping nearly 3% in France [5] - Increased market volatility led to a rise in gold prices, with spot gold surging by 2.22% to surpass $3,360 [5]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark policy rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate saw a further decline after the announcement, indicating market reactions to the decision [1] - Domestic political risks in Japan are now seen as a constraint on the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates, despite the elimination of some external uncertainties from the US-Japan trade agreement [1] Group 2 - The latest inflation data showed that the consumer price index in Tokyo's 23 wards rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, a decrease from the previous month, reinforcing the likelihood of maintaining accommodative monetary policy [1] - The focus of the Bank of Japan's meeting was on how much it would signal future interest rate hikes, with the central bank acknowledging significant uncertainties affecting economic and price outlooks [1] - The Bank of Japan revised its core CPI forecasts upward for the fiscal years 2025-2027, with expected median values of 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0%, compared to previous estimates of 2.2%, 1.7%, and 1.9% [2] - For GDP growth, the Bank of Japan projected a slight increase to 0.6% for fiscal year 2025, while maintaining previous forecasts of 0.7% and 1% for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively [2]

Economic Growth - The initial estimate of the US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 is 3.0%, a significant increase from the previous value of -0.5%[1] - Net exports contributed 5.0 percentage points to GDP growth, reversing the previous drag of 4.6 percentage points[1] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q2 2025, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter, contributing 1.0 percentage point to GDP growth[1] - Goods consumption increased to 2.2% from 0.1%, while services consumption rose to 1.1% from 0.6%[1] Investment Trends - Non-residential fixed investment recorded a growth of 1.9%, down from 10.3%, contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth[1] - Residential investment declined by 4.6%, worsening from a previous decline of 1.3%, detracting 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth[1] Inventory and Government Spending - Inventory investment negatively impacted GDP growth by 3.2 percentage points, a shift from a positive contribution of 2.6 percentage points in the previous quarter[1] - Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, with federal government spending detracting 0.2 percentage points[1] Trade Dynamics - The trade deficit for May 2025 was recorded at $71.517 billion, with a goods trade deficit of $96.423 billion and a services trade surplus of $25.994 billion[1] - The impact of "import rush" has diminished, leading to a rapid narrowing of the trade deficit, which has now become a contributor to GDP growth[1]