Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - After the release of economic data for December and the fourth quarter last week, with a Q4 GDP growth rate of 4.5% and a full - year GDP growth rate of 5% in 2025, the A - share market cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market continued to rebound, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly last week, and the term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened while the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic situation and other factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future [2][13]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of December and Q4 economic data last week, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and full - year 2025 GDP growth at 5%, A - shares cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Trading activity increased significantly, the term spread flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of January 23, the 30 - 10 spread was 46BP, at a historically low level. In December, the economic downward pressure eased, with an estimated GDP growth of about 4.5% and a 0.4% increase from November. CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][13]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. December economic data showed easing downward pressure, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.4 trillion. As of December 31, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 24.4329 trillion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. In terms of remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 10.12 billion yuan. By variety, only local government bonds were issued, amounting to 10.12 billion yuan. By term, 2.4 billion yuan was issued with a 15 - year term, 41.9 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 58.8 billion yuan with a 30 - year term [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 18.77 billion yuan, including 18.47 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds and 0.3 billion yuan of ultra - long medium - term notes [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 1.0926 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.3% of the total bond trading volume. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume increased by 213.1 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 2.5% [28]. Yield - After the release of economic data, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [42]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, the same as the previous week, and the spread was at the 34th percentile since 2010 [50]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 14BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 21BP, with changes of - 1BP and 1BP respectively compared with the previous week, at the 11th and 17th percentiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.30 yuan, an increase of 1.03%. The total trading volume was 463,100 lots (- 79,636 lots), and the open interest was 140,500 lots (+ 536 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [56].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the economic performance of major provinces in China for the year 2025, with GDP growth rates exceeding the national average of 5.0% [1][2][4] - Shanghai achieved a GDP of 56,709 billion yuan, growing by 5.4%, driven by the service sector which contributed 4.5 trillion yuan, growing by 6.0% [1] - Zhejiang's GDP reached 94,545 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5%, where the third industry contributed over 60% to GDP growth [2] - Henan's GDP was 66,633 billion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with significant contributions from domestic consumption, which increased by 5.6% [4] - Sichuan's GDP was 67,665 billion yuan, growing by 5.5%, with a notable recovery in private investment, which increased by 2.1% [5] Group 2 - Shanghai's fixed asset investment grew by 4.6%, surpassing the national average by 8.4 percentage points, with retail sales reaching 16,601 billion yuan, also growing by 4.6% [1] - In Zhejiang, the number of new enterprises and individual businesses reached 1.646 million, with a year-end total of 11.64 million, marking a 6.3% increase [2] - Henan's fixed asset investment grew by 4.0%, exceeding the national average by 7.8 percentage points, with private investment increasing by 5.9% [5] - Sichuan's private investment growth was driven by infrastructure and social welfare projects, which grew by 29% and 18.9% respectively [5]

Group 1 - The Thai Finance Minister announced that Thailand will utilize "multiple tools" to curb the appreciation of the Thai Baht [1] - There is still "some room" for interest rate cuts in Thailand [1] - Thailand's GDP growth rate is projected to reach 2% by 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights President Trump's presentation of his "achievement booklet," which lists 365 victories during his first year back in the White House, emphasizing economic growth and market performance [1] Economic Performance - Trump predicts that international companies are moving to invest in the U.S., forecasting that the trade deficit will not exist next year and that GDP growth in the first quarter will exceed 5% [1] - The stock market has reportedly reached 52 historical highs in the past 12 months, indicating strong market performance [1] Personal Commentary - Trump humorously mentions that his wife now views him as a financial genius akin to Warren Buffett, reflecting a change in perception regarding his financial acumen [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights President Trump's claims of significant economic achievements during his first year back in office, emphasizing a strong market performance and anticipated economic growth [1] Economic Performance - Trump asserts that international companies are relocating to the U.S. for investment opportunities, predicting that the U.S. will not experience a trade deficit next year [1] - He forecasts that the GDP growth rate for the first quarter will exceed 5% [1] Market Highlights - Trump notes that the stock market has reached 52 all-time highs over the past 12 months, indicating robust market performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, anticipates that the U.S. GDP growth rate will exceed 5% in the first quarter of 2026, while cautioning the EU against retaliatory tariffs related to President Trump's threats concerning Greenland [1] Group 1 - The expected U.S. GDP growth rate for Q1 2026 is projected to be over 5% [1] - Lutnick warns that if the EU implements retaliatory tariffs, it could lead to a renewed cycle of tariff escalations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for over 5 years, marking eight consecutive months of stability, with expectations for GDP growth to rebound to around 4.7% in Q1 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Unchanged LPR - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates, particularly the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which indicates that the pricing basis for the LPR has not changed [2]. - Major mid to long-term market interest rates, including the 1-year interbank certificates of deposit yield, have remained stable, leading to little change in commercial banks' financing costs [2]. - The lack of incentive for banks to lower the LPR is due to historically low net interest margins [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Despite a decline in economic growth in Q4 2025 due to real estate market adjustments and weakened investment and consumption, stable employment and rising price levels are noted [3]. - The implementation of new policies in January 2026, including a structural interest rate cut of 0.25%, is expected to support economic recovery, alongside the gradual effects of previous investment expansion policies [3]. - The regulatory body may guide a significant reduction in the 5-year LPR to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Direction - The central bank's recent structural interest rate cut indicates a reduced necessity for comprehensive rate cuts in the short term [4]. - The balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the financial sector is crucial, as the net interest margin for commercial banks remains at a historical low of 1.42% [4]. - Future monetary policy may involve a combination of measures, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, depending on market conditions and fiscal policy implementation [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The large funds intend to cool down the market through heavy - holding stocks and ETFs, resulting in a decline in the overall trading volume of the two markets. However, the participation enthusiasm of the remaining funds is still relatively high, leading to the divergence of the four major index trends. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes maintain a high - level shock pattern, while the other two indexes are suppressed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the service industry's added value increased by 5.4%, accounting for 57.7% of GDP. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 17.2% [1] - In the overseas market, the U.S. stock market was closed due to the Martin Luther King Memorial Day. The three major European stock indexes closed down across the board due to intensified geopolitical risks and weak European economic data. The German DAX index fell 1.34% to 24,959.06 points, while the three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.6% to 49,442.44 points [1] - In the A - share spot market, the three major indexes showed a divergent trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4,114 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%. Most sector indexes rose, with the basic chemical, petroleum and petrochemical, power equipment, and automobile industries leading the gains, while the computer, communication, and banking industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 2.7 trillion yuan [1] - In the futures market, the current - month contract of IH was at a premium. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IH and IF decreased simultaneously [1] Strategy - The large funds use heavy - holding stocks and ETFs to cool down the market, causing the overall trading volume of the two markets to decline. However, the enthusiasm of other funds remains high, resulting in the divergence of the four major index trends. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes maintain a high - level shock pattern, and the other two indexes are suppressed [2] Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on January 19, 2026. The Shanghai Composite Index was at 4,114.00 (+0.29%), the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14,294.05 (+0.09%), the ChiNext Index was at 3,337.61 (-0.70%), the CSI 300 Index was at 4,734.46 (+0.05%), the SSE 50 Index was at 3,075.94 (-0.12%), the CSI 500 Index was at 8,287.95 (+0.67%), and the CSI 1000 Index was at 8,265.65 (+0.40%) [12] - The charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume of IF was 120,242 (-34,310), the open interest was 290,666 (-4,289); the trading volume of IH was 46,533 (-18,564), the open interest was 91,413 (-1,610); the trading volume of IC was 166,526 (-21,181), the open interest was 319,424 (+6,196); the trading volume of IM was 206,367 (-35,971), the open interest was 380,256 (+1,234) [14] - The charts show the open interest, latest open - interest ratio, and foreign net open - interest quantity of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5][15][17] - The table shows the basis of stock index futures. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 1.66 (-6.79), and that of IH was 0.46 (-1.18) [39] - The table shows the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures. For example, for the "next - month - current - month" spread of IF, the current value was - 4.20 (+7.00) [45]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Automotive and Consumer Sector - Sales of trade-in related products remained weak in early January - From January 1 to January 11, national retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 32% year-on-year [1] - As of January 9, sales of eight categories of home appliances fell by 41.9% year-on-year [1] Production and Construction - Production remained stable in the second week of January, with attention on the impact of the upcoming Spring Festival on production growth - The utilization rate of coking capacity was 77.5%, slightly down from 77.7% previously - The apparent consumption of major steel products was 9.377 million tons this week, up from 9.071 million tons previously [2] Real Estate - New and second-hand housing transaction volumes were weak in the second week of January - From January 10 to January 16, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 195,000 square meters, roughly unchanged from the previous week but down 43.3% year-on-year - In third-tier cities, the year-on-year decline was 50% [3] Trade and Exports - In the second week of January, shipping rates from Shanghai to the East Coast of the U.S. increased by 1.2%, while rates to the West Coast decreased by 1.1% - The export freight index (CCFI) rose by 1.3% week-on-week, while the SCFI fell by 4.4% - In the first ten days of January, South Korea's export value decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, and import value fell by 4.5% [4] Economic Forecast - GDP growth for December 2025 is estimated at 4.6% based on statistical bureau data, while January 2026 is estimated at 4.3% based on high-frequency data - The impact of the Spring Festival is expected to lead to a significant increase in year-on-year data in the future [4] Liquidity - In the second week of January, funding rates showed a marginal increase, with the average weekly DR007 rate at 1.51%, up from 1.45% - The net financing of government bonds was -233.64 billion yuan, while net financing of credit bonds was 49.04 billion yuan [5] Prices - In the second week of January, commodity prices showed divergence, with coking coal and coke prices decreasing by 2.1% and 1.8% respectively - Food prices for pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits increased by 0.6%, 3.3%, 0.2%, and 1.9% respectively [6] U.S. High-Frequency Data - In the second week of January, U.S. consumer spending continued to grow - The Redbook commercial retail sales increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 7.1% previously - TSA checkpoint numbers increased by 3.8% year-on-year, up from 2.1% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was successfully achieved, but the growth rate declined quarter - by - quarter. The macro - economic data in December continued to fall, and the recovery momentum remained weak. Consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market were sluggish, while exports showed resilience and inflation data improved [3]. - A rational and objective view of the current macro - economy is needed. The transformation, adjustment, and bottoming - out of the real estate market require time, and the domestic economic recovery cannot be achieved overnight. More active macro - policies should be implemented to expand domestic demand and optimize supply [4]. - In the future, "expanding domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will remain important long - term policy measures. The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the market sentiment is continuously improving. In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but patience is required [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: A Slight Rebound but Still Weak - In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 49.8%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, down 0.5 percentage points [6]. - Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below it. The production and new order indices increased, indicating accelerated production and improved market demand, but the employment index declined slightly [6]. - Overall, although the manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, the manufacturing sector was still weak, and the economic recovery momentum was insufficient [9]. 3.2 CPI and PPI: Inflation Continued to Improve - In December 2025, the national CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food and non - food prices both increased, and among the eight major categories of prices, five increased and two decreased year - on - year [10]. - The PPI decreased 1.9% year - on - year in December, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points, and increased 0.2% month - on - month, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points. The anti - cut - throat competition policy has achieved continuous results, and the PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to turn positive in 2026 [12][15]. 3.3 Import and Export: Maintaining Resilience - In December, China's imports denominated in US dollars increased 5.7% year - on - year, and exports increased 6.6% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. The trade surplus was 1,141.4 billion US dollars [16]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. The real risk for China's foreign trade lies in the potential economic recession in the US and the slowdown of global economic growth [18]. - In December, China's exports to regions other than the US maintained steady growth, and exports to ASEAN countries continued to replace those to the US [19]. 3.4 Credit: Weak Resident Credit Demand and Declining M1 Growth - At the end of 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The annual increment of social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year [20][21]. - In December, resident short - term and long - term loans both decreased significantly, indicating weak resident consumption and housing credit demand. Government bond issuance slowed down, M1 growth declined, but enterprise credit improved and M2 growth rebounded [24][25]. - Overall, the credit demand of the real economy was still weak, and the upward trend of M1 and M2 growth faced resistance [26]. 3.5 Industrial Production, Consumption, and Investment: Industrial Production Rebounded, while Consumption and Investment Growth Continued to Decline - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. For the whole year of 2025, it increased 5.9% compared with the previous year [27]. - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased 0.9% year - on - year. After excluding the impact of national subsidies, consumption in 2025 was weak, indicating insufficient domestic demand. Further consumption - promotion policies may be introduced in 2026 [27][28]. - In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 3.8% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all continued to decline [32]. 3.6 Real Estate Market: Continued Downtrend - In 2025, the sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 8.7% and 12.6% respectively year - on - year. The real estate development investment decreased 17.2% year - on - year [31][32]. - The new construction, construction, and completion of real estate all declined further. The real estate development climate index continued to fall in December [35][36]. - The real estate market is currently at the bottom stage. With the decline of the base, the year - on - year decline of sales area and sales volume is gradually narrowing. The first half of 2026 is expected to be a critical period for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [38]. 3.7 Summary and Outlook - In December, the macro - economy was weak, with consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market remaining sluggish, while exports were resilient and inflation data improved [40]. - The main constraints on macro - economic recovery and asset price repair are insufficient domestic effective demand represented by real estate and consumption, and over - capacity in multiple industries. More policy support is needed [40]. - The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation". In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but one should track policy implementation details and wait for positive macro - economic signals [40].