第四师经 编辑｜瑜见 31省份2025年 "成绩单"出炉 | 置假 | ■ GDP (万亿元) | ○ 增速(按不变价格计算) | | --- | --- | --- | | 广东 | 14.58 | 3.9% | | 江苏 | 14.24 | 5.3% | | 山东 | 10.32 | 5.5% | | 浙江 | 9.45 | 5.5% | | 四川 | 6.77 | 5.5% | | 河南 | 6.66 | 5.6% | | 湖北 | 6.27 | 5.5% | | 福建 | 6.02 | 5.0% | | 上海 | 5.67 | 5.4% | | 湖南 | 5.53 | 4.8% | | 安徽 | 5.30 | 5.5% | | 北京 | 5.21 | 5.4% | | 河北 | 4.93 | 5.6% | | 陕西 | 3.66 | 5.1% | | 江西 | 3.60 | 5.2% | | 重庆 | 3.38 | 5.3% | | 辽宁 | 3.32 | 3.7% | | 云南 | 3.28 | 4.1% | | F | 2.97 | 5.1% | | 内蒙古 2.67 | | 4.7% | | 山 ...

Core Insights - As of now, 30 provinces in China have disclosed their economic performance for 2025, with 17 provinces reporting GDP growth rates exceeding the national level of 5.0%, and Tibet achieving a growth rate of 7.0% [1] Economic Performance - Major economic provinces continue to act as "ballast stones" for the economy, with Guangdong, Shandong, and Zhejiang maintaining top positions in total economic output [1] - Shandong's GDP has surpassed 10 trillion yuan for the first time, making it the third province in the country to cross this threshold [1] - Jiangsu has not yet disclosed its economic total and growth rate for 2025, but it is expected to exceed 14 trillion yuan according to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Regional Changes - There have been new changes in the regional economic landscape, with Chongqing surpassing Liaoning in total economic output compared to 2024, indicating further adjustments in inter-provincial economic rankings [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The economic outlook for Q1 2026 is optimistic, with an expected real GDP growth rate of around 5% and a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 4.5% [1][7] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to rebound significantly, benefiting from policy support and major projects under the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][5] - Consumer spending is projected to recover, with goods consumption growth expected to rise to 3%-4% due to the Spring Festival effect and subsidies for replacing old products [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Economic Growth**: Despite a high base in Q1 2025, historical data suggests that it will not constrain growth in Q1 2026. A comparison with Q4 2025, which had a growth rate of 4.5%, indicates that achieving over 5% in Q1 2026 would signify a reversal of the economic downturn [3][4] - **Investment Recovery**: Investment is expected to show a significant improvement, with a potential increase of over 15 percentage points if it returns to the average growth rate of about 4% seen in previous years [4][5] - **Consumer Spending**: The service sector is likely to perform well due to increased activities during the Spring Festival, and the early launch of the replacement subsidy program is expected to release pent-up demand [6] - **Monetary Policy**: The current monetary policy emphasizes efficiency and flexibility, with limited room for interest rate cuts. The focus is on stabilizing the exchange rate rather than direct intervention [8][9] - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to focus on structural adjustments rather than mere expansion, with a narrow deficit rate maintained at around 4.0% and a potential decrease in the broad deficit rate [10] Additional Important Insights - **Real Estate Support**: The likelihood of using fiscal subsidies to support the real estate market is low, with more feasible measures being local government actions to reduce transaction and financial costs [11] - **Public Fund Reform**: Public fund reforms are expected to play a significant role in supporting housing demand and stabilizing the real estate market [12] - **Capital Market Outlook**: The capital market is viewed positively, with stocks considered the most promising asset class. The recovery of PPI is crucial for supporting corporate profits, particularly in the technology sector [2][13][14] - **Market Volatility**: Recent stock market volatility has increased, with significant adjustments in various indices. The market is experiencing a rotation among sectors, with small-cap stocks showing resilience [15][16] - **Investment Strategy**: In a rapidly changing market, focusing on stable sectors with long-term growth potential, such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, is recommended over more volatile growth sectors like AI [17][18]

辽宁 33182.9 3.7% 32765.8 4.1% 云南 29727.5 广西 5.1% 26710 内蒙古 4.7% 25495.7 山西 4.0% 23562.2 贵州 4.9% 2.15万 新疆 5.5% 18539.82 天津 4.8% 16878 黑龙江 4.2% 14973.9 吉林 5.0% 13697.5 日詩 5.8% 8108.85 泡屋 4.0% 5696.49 宁夏 5.3% 4121.84 量海 4.1% 3031.89 西藏 7.0% 数据来源:各地统计局 新 京 报 2 贝壳财经 3 级读财经 注:广东、新疆暂未披露 小数点 ·大经济 经济总量详细数据 区域格局也出现新变化。与2024年相比，重庆经济总量实现对辽宁的超越，省际经济位次进一步调整。 截至目前，全国已有30个省份陆续披露2025年经济运行情况。从已公布数据看，17个省份GDP实际增速超过全国 5.0%的增速水平，其中西藏增速达到7.0%。 经济大省继续发挥"压舱石"作用。广东、山东、浙江等地经济总量稳居前列，其中山东地区生产总值首次突破10 万亿元，成为全国第三个GDP迈过10万亿元门槛的省份。江苏尚未披露20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a volatile start to 2026, with fluctuations against the US dollar influenced by oil prices and domestic economic conditions, while the market awaits clarity from the Bank of Canada on interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 27, the CAD is trading at 0.7291 against the USD, showing a slight daily decline of 0.0656%, with a trading range between 0.7289 and 0.7299 [1]. - The CAD has depreciated approximately 1.55% against the Chinese yuan since the beginning of the year, although it has seen minor recovery due to the strengthening of non-USD currencies [1]. - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently around 1.3680, close to the lower end of a previous downtrend channel, indicating a narrow trading range since the start of the year [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.25% in January, with 75% of institutions predicting stability throughout 2026, following a cumulative 100 basis points rate cut in 2025 [1][2]. - The current inflation rate in Canada is at 2.4%, slightly above the 2% target, reducing the urgency for rate cuts in the short term [1]. - The Bank of Canada is undergoing a five-year review of its monetary policy framework, leading to divergent predictions among institutions regarding future interest rate movements [2]. Group 3: Oil Prices and Economic Conditions - The CAD's performance is closely tied to international oil prices, which have stabilized around $61.10 per barrel, providing essential support for the CAD [2]. - Concerns over energy supply due to geopolitical risks and disruptions in certain regions have contributed to the recent increase in oil prices, positively impacting Canada's oil export revenues [2]. - However, domestic economic recovery remains weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.8% in December 2025, the highest since before the pandemic, and consumer confidence declining for three consecutive months [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently in a downward trend since the previous high of 1.3927, with resistance around 1.3800 and support near 1.3641 [3]. - Technical indicators suggest a stalemate in market dynamics, with no clear reversal signals, indicating a pattern of limited downward movement without significant upward momentum [3]. - Future CAD movements will be influenced by three key variables: the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, the stability of oil prices, and changes in the US dollar index and external demand [3].

作者 2026 年 1 月 26 日 日本央行按兵不动，地缘风险扰动全球市场 ——海外宏观周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） | | | 名称 | 2026/1/25 | 一周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 作者 | | 上证指数 | 4136 | 0.84% | 4.22% | | 东方金诚 研究发展部 | | 深证成指 | 14440 | 1.11% | 6.76% | | | | 标普 500 | 6916 | -0.35% | 1.02% | | 分析师 徐嘉琦 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 49099 | -0.53% | 2.15% | | | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23501 | -0.06% | 1.12% | | 执行总监 冯琳 | 股市 | 英国富时 100 | 10143 | -0.90% | 2.14% | | | | 德国 DAX | 24901 | -1.57% | 1.68% | | | | 法国 CAC40 | 8143 | -1.40% | -0.08% | | | | 日经 225 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: [Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report] - Dollar Index Drops, Non-ferrous Sector Oscillates Higher [1] - Report Date: January 26, 2026 - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling, Lin Jingyan Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The dollar index has declined, leading to an oscillating upward trend in the non-ferrous sector [1] - For copper, short - term price pressure exists due to the US delaying new tariffs on key mineral imports, but the decline is limited due to the falling dollar index and improved market sentiment [8] - For zinc, the fundamental contradictions are insufficient, and its price is mainly affected by the sector's trend, suggesting a high - selling and low - buying strategy [95] - For nickel and stainless steel, due to factors such as potential supply shortages in Indonesia and shipping incidents in the Philippines, nickel prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will run at a high level, with attention to potential risks such as short - squeeze in near - month contracts [198][199] Group 4: Summary by Section 4.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The dollar index is at 97.5, with a daily decline of 0.79%, a weekly decline of 1.88%, and an annual decline of 0.78%. The exchange rate CNH is 6.9642, with a daily increase of 0.02%, a weekly decline of 0.07%, and an annual decline of 0.35% [6] - Most non - ferrous metals show varying degrees of price changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the price of lithium carbonate has a significant increase, with a daily increase of 7.55%, a weekly increase of 24.16%, and an annual increase of 49.30% [6] 4.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: China's 2025 GDP growth meets expectations, and recent domestic policies may improve domestic demand. The US has some policy stances that affect market risk appetite, and the dollar index is under pressure [8] - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore decreases, the port inventory slightly increases, and the long - term processing fee benchmark for 2026 is set at 0 [8] - **Smelting End**: The loss of smelters using spot copper ore slightly expands, while the profit of those using long - term contracts increases [8] - **Demand End**: The downstream demand is released as the copper price falls, and the operating rate of refined copper rods increases [8] - **Inventory**: Global copper inventories increase significantly [8] - **Investment View**: The copper price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low levels [8] 4.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: The macro - sentiment is complex, with geopolitical disturbances and central bank policy expectations affecting the market [95] - **Raw Material End**: The average domestic processing fee remains stable, the imported processing fee continues to decline, and the supply of zinc ore may be affected by geopolitical risks [95] - **Smelting End**: The domestic zinc ingot production continues to shrink, and the average loss per ton of zinc for smelters narrows slightly [95] - **Demand End**: The downstream is in the seasonal off - season, and the procurement is mainly for rigid needs [95] - **Inventory**: The social inventory and LME inventory of zinc ingots both show a slight increase [95] - **Investment View**: The zinc price is mainly affected by the sector's trend, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended [95] 4.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - **Macro Factors**: The US PCE inflation data meets expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged. The Chinese central bank may implement further policies. Indonesia's policies increase concerns about nickel supply [198][199] - **Raw Material End**: The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is firm, the rainfall in the Philippine production area affects transportation, and the domestic port inventory of nickel ore is decreasing [198][199] - **Smelting End**: The production of pure nickel and nickel - iron may increase, and the production of stainless steel is expected to rise in January [198][199] - **Demand End**: The social inventory of stainless steel is decreasing, and the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period. The demand for new energy is affected by the production schedule of precursor enterprises [198][199] - **Inventory**: Global nickel inventories are increasing [198] - **Investment View**: Nickel prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will run at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disturbances and potential short - squeeze risks [198][199]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - After the release of economic data for December and the fourth quarter last week, with a Q4 GDP growth rate of 4.5% and a full - year GDP growth rate of 5% in 2025, the A - share market cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market continued to rebound, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly last week, and the term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened while the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic situation and other factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future [2][13]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of December and Q4 economic data last week, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and full - year 2025 GDP growth at 5%, A - shares cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Trading activity increased significantly, the term spread flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of January 23, the 30 - 10 spread was 46BP, at a historically low level. In December, the economic downward pressure eased, with an estimated GDP growth of about 4.5% and a 0.4% increase from November. CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][13]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. December economic data showed easing downward pressure, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.4 trillion. As of December 31, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 24.4329 trillion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. In terms of remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 10.12 billion yuan. By variety, only local government bonds were issued, amounting to 10.12 billion yuan. By term, 2.4 billion yuan was issued with a 15 - year term, 41.9 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 58.8 billion yuan with a 30 - year term [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 18.77 billion yuan, including 18.47 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds and 0.3 billion yuan of ultra - long medium - term notes [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 1.0926 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.3% of the total bond trading volume. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume increased by 213.1 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 2.5% [28]. Yield - After the release of economic data, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [42]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, the same as the previous week, and the spread was at the 34th percentile since 2010 [50]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 14BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 21BP, with changes of - 1BP and 1BP respectively compared with the previous week, at the 11th and 17th percentiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.30 yuan, an increase of 1.03%. The total trading volume was 463,100 lots (- 79,636 lots), and the open interest was 140,500 lots (+ 536 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [56].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the economic performance of major provinces in China for the year 2025, with GDP growth rates exceeding the national average of 5.0% [1][2][4] - Shanghai achieved a GDP of 56,709 billion yuan, growing by 5.4%, driven by the service sector which contributed 4.5 trillion yuan, growing by 6.0% [1] - Zhejiang's GDP reached 94,545 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5%, where the third industry contributed over 60% to GDP growth [2] - Henan's GDP was 66,633 billion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with significant contributions from domestic consumption, which increased by 5.6% [4] - Sichuan's GDP was 67,665 billion yuan, growing by 5.5%, with a notable recovery in private investment, which increased by 2.1% [5] Group 2 - Shanghai's fixed asset investment grew by 4.6%, surpassing the national average by 8.4 percentage points, with retail sales reaching 16,601 billion yuan, also growing by 4.6% [1] - In Zhejiang, the number of new enterprises and individual businesses reached 1.646 million, with a year-end total of 11.64 million, marking a 6.3% increase [2] - Henan's fixed asset investment grew by 4.0%, exceeding the national average by 7.8 percentage points, with private investment increasing by 5.9% [5] - Sichuan's private investment growth was driven by infrastructure and social welfare projects, which grew by 29% and 18.9% respectively [5]

Group 1 - The Thai Finance Minister announced that Thailand will utilize "multiple tools" to curb the appreciation of the Thai Baht [1] - There is still "some room" for interest rate cuts in Thailand [1] - Thailand's GDP growth rate is projected to reach 2% by 2026 [1]