Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for a conflict between the US and China, suggesting that if a war were to occur, it might take place in the US rather than in Asia or the Middle East [1][8][10] - It highlights the strategic maneuvers of the US, including the transfer of military resources to Asia and the portrayal of China as a threat to Taiwan, indicating a deliberate attempt to create a battleground in China’s vicinity [5][6][12] - The article points out that the US has historically avoided bringing conflict to its own territory, which could change if a direct confrontation with China occurs [3][8][10] Group 2 - The article emphasizes China's growing military capabilities and the recognition of this strength by other nations, including the US, which has led to increased caution from the US regarding direct military engagement [10][16] - It discusses the economic interdependence between the US and China, particularly in terms of market access and the importance of Chinese rare earth materials to US military technology [14][18] - The article concludes that despite the tensions, both nations need to address their issues through dialogue rather than conflict, as the current situation is largely a result of US actions [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The current anti-involution policies are expected to strengthen the trend of "reducing capital expenditure," leading to a more certain and sustained supply-demand turning point starting in mid-2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Policies - The anti-involution policies are reminiscent of the supply-side reforms from 2016-2017, which can be broken down into three core elements: "reducing capacity," "reducing output," and demand-side stimulation [2]. - "Reducing capital expenditure" is an inevitable trend, with the current growth rate of capital expenditure in the midstream manufacturing sector reaching a new low since 2012 [3]. - The impact of "reducing capacity" will manifest in three ways: delayed effects from reduced capital expenditure, abandonment of existing projects, and guiding the survival of the fittest among existing enterprises [3][4]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The most significant impact of the current anti-involution is that by mid-2026, the growth rate of fixed asset formation in midstream manufacturing will be lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, enhancing the visibility of the supply-demand turning point [4]. - The current low capacity utilization and weak internal investment willingness among enterprises suggest further room for decline in capital expenditure growth [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The improvement in the supply-demand dynamics in midstream manufacturing and the easing of the anti-involution narrative are seen as crucial components for a bull market expected in 2026-2027 [8]. - The recent breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index has become an investment narrative, enhancing risk appetite, although the current fundamental expectations and profit accumulation are not yet at bull market levels [8][9]. - The focus on high-dividend stocks, including bank shares, is deemed a long-term correct strategy, but short-term dynamics indicate that this trend may not be sustainable [10]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The sectors currently showing significant profit expansion include banking, steel, and electricity equipment, while sectors like defense and non-ferrous metals are experiencing contraction [14]. - The short-term market focus is on sectors such as steel, building materials, and electrical equipment, with expectations of improved profitability in various manufacturing sub-sectors by Q4 2025 [11]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should consider the anticipated structural changes in the market, with a focus on sectors that will benefit from the anti-involution policies and the expected recovery in profitability [11][14]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to perform well in the potential bull market, driven by factors such as concentrated IPOs and early dividends [11].

农产品早报 2025-07-07 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 美豆周五休市，天气较好及全球丰产施压美豆，不过美豆估值略低，生物柴油政策支撑需求，整体维持 区间震荡趋势。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2830 元/吨，油厂开机率仍较高。上周豆粕成交一般， 提货仍较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 233.22 万吨，本周预计压榨 235.17 万吨。饲料企业库 存天数为 7.91（+0.61）天。 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳中小涨，叠加雷亚 尔升值，中美大豆关税仍未解除等支撑当地升贴水。总体来看，大豆进口成本暂稳为主，但也需要注意 贸易战若缓和或宏观影响带来的超预期下跌。 【交易策略】 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangj ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The June PMI for the machinery industry has rebounded to 49.7%, indicating a recovery in general equipment and engineering machinery sectors [4][6] - Despite a decline in domestic engineering machinery operations, exports are experiencing rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% in May [5][6] - The overall demand for machinery equipment is expected to improve in the second half of the year due to easing US-China trade tensions and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the machinery industry has shown a relative return of 19.5% and an absolute return of 35.6% [3] General Equipment - The production index and new orders index have increased to 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating expansion [4] - The overall manufacturing sector is showing resilience, with a continuous recovery in PMI for May and June [4] Engineering Machinery - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products in June were 77.2 hours, down 9.1% year-on-year [5] - The average operating rate for engineering machinery was 56.9%, a decline of 7.55 percentage points year-on-year [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the engineering machinery sector, which is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and strong export growth [6] - Specific companies to watch include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, and Hengli Hydraulic [6] Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies, with several companies rated as "Buy" [20]

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 展望 2025 年下半年：尽管短期或有种种因素打乱节奏，但行情整体仍然围绕自身基本面发展。碳酸锂整体供需格局或仍难改变，总体 供给仍显过剩，在矿端以及锂盐厂没有出现明显减产之前，碳酸锂市场或仍然维持震荡探底过程。我们预计，虽然近期存在储能抢出口 现象，需求端有一定支撑，但随着关税豁免到期...... 新能源&有色金属研究 过剩格局未变 锂价或震荡探底 New Eergy and Non-Frrous Mtals 本期分析研究员 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号： 0022466 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 期货研究报告 | 碳酸锂半年报 2025-07-06 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 电话：021-60827968 邮箱：chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy, highlighting the impact of external factors such as the US-China trade war and domestic policy measures that have contributed to economic stability and growth. Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is expected to be around 5.3%, with a need for only 4.7% growth in the second half to meet the annual target [1] - The first quarter saw a GDP growth of 5.4%, while the second quarter is projected to be around 5.2% [2] - The overall economic performance is stable, with industrial value-added growth at 6.5% in the first quarter and service sector growth at 5.8% [5] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The export growth rate fluctuated due to the US-China tariff war, peaking at 12.3% in March before declining to 4.8% in May [2] - The share of exports to the US has decreased to the lowest level on record, impacting overall export performance [2] - The article anticipates a 2.0% growth in exports for the year, with various scenarios predicting outcomes ranging from 0% to 3.5% [10][11] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Policy Response - Domestic demand is gradually stabilizing due to proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal spending and monetary easing [3] - Social financing stock grew by 8.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with government bonds seeing a significant increase of 20.9% [3] - Retail sales growth reached 6.4% in May, driven by consumption policies such as the "old-for-new" program [3] Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% in the first five months, with infrastructure investment increasing by 5.6% [13] - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 7.8% for the year, while real estate investment is projected to decline by 10.0% [23][16] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to rebound in the second half, supported by ample funding and ongoing major projects [18][19] Group 5: Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is expected to grow by 4.5% for the year, with retail sales showing a recovery trend [27] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has significantly boosted consumption in various sectors [28] - However, consumer confidence remains low, and spending may decline in the second half due to reduced subsidy support and economic uncertainties [29] Group 6: Price Trends - CPI is projected to remain around 0% for the year, with a slight recovery expected in the second half [31][32] - PPI is anticipated to decline by 2.3% for the year, reflecting ongoing pressures from oversupply and weak demand [34][35] Group 7: Policy Outlook - The article suggests that macroeconomic policies will focus on stabilizing growth without significant new stimulus, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies [37][38] - Fiscal policies will prioritize the effective use of existing funds to support consumption and investment [40][41] - Monetary policy is expected to remain flexible, with a focus on structural support rather than aggressive easing [42][43]

2025 第（120）期 发布日期：2025-07-04 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 号 | | 宏观指标 | 2025/7/4 | 2025/7/3 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 纳斯达克指数 | 44828.53 | 44484.42 | 344.110 | 0.774 | | | | | 20601.10 | 20393.13 | 207.970 | 1.020 | | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | 标普500 | 6279.35 | 6227.42 | 51.930 | 0.834 | | 0371-58620081 | | 恒生指数 | 24069.94 | 24221.41 | -151.470 | -0.625 | | 0371-58620083 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | 1.32 | 1.37 | -0.050 | -3.663 | | | | 美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the EU should expedite tariff negotiations with the US to avoid escalating trade tensions, as emphasized by German Chancellor Merz [1] - Merz highlighted that the current US-EU tariff dispute poses a threat to several key industries in Germany, including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, machinery manufacturing, steel and aluminum, and automotive sectors [1] - The focus of the negotiations should not be on a comprehensive trade agreement covering all details, but rather on quickly resolving the tariff dispute [1]

| | | 3400 点有效突破可能性较大:我们在年度策略判断本轮行情是结构性慢牛,目前来看市场走势正在强化,中期货将我们提 出目前时点,A 股正站在新一轮结构性侵牛的起点,3400突破以后是新征程的起点,市场有望展开新一轮慢牛。 核心逻辑: 1) 全球化与逆全球化的矛盾。逆转不了中国全球化的布局、未来重塑的是全球贸易利益新格局，在经历贸易战之后,中国 海外布局必将加快进程。2)中国制造业作为全球产业链的核心,凭借其规模、供应链完整性、创新能力和成本效率,长期 占据竞争优势地位。2011年起,中国制造业增加值超越美国成为全球最大的制造业大国,凸显其不可替代性。3）中国军事 实力提升,是中国全球化进程的战略保障,有利于一带一路布局和企业整体性出海的战略自信,随着中国军事力量逐步具备 全球投射能力、全球对中国资产信心度提升将会起到促进作用。4）中国股市资产质量逐步优化,IPO 发行从注重融资数量 的增量思维向提高存量思维转变，2024年开始 IPO 融资规模大幅降低,同时，并购重组日益受到管理层重视，连续出台鼓 关证券股份有限公司证券 报 H A 股策略周报:开启新征程 2025年7月2日 策略周报 东兴证券策略 ...

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年7月2日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 269840 | 245000-263000 | 15.08% | 28.6% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 100% | 290000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2508C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锡主力期货合约 ...