Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in futures trading, particularly in multi-crystalline silicon and coking coal, has led to significant profits for traders, indicating a recovery from previous downturns in these commodities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Futures Market Performance - In July, the futures market experienced a collective surge, with multi-crystalline silicon seeing a maximum increase of 70.79% and coking coal rising by 58.67% [2]. - The main contracts for multi-crystalline silicon, coking coal, and coking coal futures recorded increases of 51.45%, 28.31%, and 14.79% respectively [2]. - The total number of effective futures clients reached 2.61 million by the end of June 2025, marking a 12% year-on-year increase [2]. Group 2: Individual Trader Experiences - A trader, referred to as "玗," turned an initial investment of 22 million into 280 million within three weeks, achieving a maximum return rate of 724.25% before experiencing significant losses [8][9]. - Another trader, Chen Binghe, successfully traded rebar futures based on a combination of quantitative indicators, achieving notable profits in July [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Traders like Wang Haolei have adopted a cautious approach, learning from past experiences to avoid over-leveraging during volatile market conditions [4][5]. - Both Wang and Chen expressed a wait-and-see attitude regarding future trends in black commodities, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7]. Group 4: Market Growth and Trends - As of July 2025, the total capital in the domestic futures market reached approximately 1.82 trillion, reflecting an 11.6% increase from the end of 2024 [12]. - The emergence of a short drama titled "Reborn in the Millennium, I Rely on Futures to Take Revenge" highlights the growing interest in the futures market and its cultural impact [13][14]. Group 5: Industry Insights - Financial professionals noted the challenges of creating engaging financial-themed media that balances accessibility with industry-specific knowledge [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the corn and corn starch markets remains weak, and it is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [9][13]. - For corn, the USDA's August supply - demand report is bearish, with increased U.S. corn production and ending stocks. In the domestic market, the continuous auction of imported corn, the upcoming listing of new - season corn, and weak market consumption have put pressure on the price [8][9]. - For corn starch, the resumption of operations by previously - overhauled enterprises has increased supply, while downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in an obvious oversupply situation [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed lower this week at 2190 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA's report is bearish, and the domestic market is affected by factors such as corn auctions and new - season corn listing, with weak spot prices. It is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [9]. - **Corn Starch**: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed slightly lower after narrow - range fluctuations at 2522 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. Supply pressure has increased due to the resumption of operations, and demand is weak. Inventory has increased, and it is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The November contract of corn futures closed lower with a total position of 828,457 lots, an increase of 236,354 lots from last week. The November contract of corn starch futures closed lower after narrow - range fluctuations with a total position of 138,621 lots, an increase of 31,700 lots from last week [18]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 75,073, and the net short position increased compared to last week; the top 20 net position of starch futures was - 16,392, and the net short position also increased [25]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 132,529, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 [31]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active November contract and the spot average price was + 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton, remaining stable this week. The basis between the November contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 328 yuan/ton [36][40]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread Changes**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 3 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period; the 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 28 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [46]. - **Futures Spread Changes**: The spread between the November contracts of starch and corn was 332 yuan/ton. In the 33rd week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [55]. - **Substitute Spread Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,438.11 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 43.99 yuan/ton. In the 33rd week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 138 yuan/ton, widening by 21 yuan/ton compared to last week [59]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Corn Supply - Side**: As of August 8, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 748,000 tons, a decrease of 144,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 3,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.774 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 131,000 tons; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 247,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. In June 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 160,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 760,000 tons or 82.61%. As of August 14, the average inventory days of feed enterprises across the country was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.07% [50][68][72]. - **Corn Demand - Side**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; the breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.7% of the normal reserve of 39 million. As of August 8, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 45.13 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 134.14 yuan per head. As of August 14, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 63 yuan/ton. As of August 15, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 607 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 503 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 186 yuan/ton [76][80][84]. - **Corn Starch Supply - Side**: As of August 13, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.402 million tons, a decrease of 6.62%. From August 7 to August 13, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, an increase of 15,500 tons from last week; the national corn starch production was 289,200 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. As of August 13, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.332 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, a month - on - month increase of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.33% [88][92]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of August 15, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 10.35%, an increase of 0.67% from 9.68% last week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated up and down, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].

Report Summary - **Investment Rating**: Not provided [1] - **Core View**: The influence of the Indian tender on market sentiment is gradually fading. Returning to the domestic supply - demand situation, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level. Although the increase in enterprise inventory accumulation is not large due to increased port - collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 860,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Key Information by Category 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On August 14, compared with August 13, UR01 decreased by 21 yuan/ton (-1.20%) to 1726 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.95%) to 1771 yuan/ton, UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.64%) to 1715 yuan/ton, and the Shandong price decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.58%) to 1720 yuan/ton [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The prices in most regions remained unchanged, except for the small - particle price in Hebei, which decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.57%) to 1740 yuan/ton [1] - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and downstream products like compound fertilizer and melamine remained unchanged on August 14 compared with August 13 [1] 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 51 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [1] 3. Trading Information - **Urea Futures Main Contract 2601**: On the previous trading day, the opening price was 1741 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1752 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1725 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1726 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the position was 174,742 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil production is seasonally increasing, and although export data can offset some of the production increase, inventory is expected to rise by the end of August. Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure to weaken and may seek support in the 9000 - 9200 yuan range. CBOT soybeans are near a technical resistance level and may correct, affecting CBOT soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil inventory may decrease after peaking, and basis quotes will have limited short - term fluctuations [1]. Meal - The USDA monthly supply - demand report and anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed have provided short - term support, but after the short - term positive information fades, the market may face profit - taking. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and spot prices are under pressure. The bottom range of meal has shifted up, and short - term profit - taking is possible. Overall, the trend remains upward [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - Pig prices are supported by farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices and some secondary fattening. However, the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Group farms'出栏 is expected to recover in August, and large pigs from small farmers also need to be sold. The far - month 01 contract has stronger support, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4][5]. Corn - The corn market has rebounded due to the impact of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed and the USDA August report, but its own fundamentals have not changed much. Supply will gradually ease, and the market sentiment is weak. Consumption is not significantly boosted, and the wheat price squeezes corn demand. The short - term rebound is limited, and there may be opportunities to short. In the long - term, the cost of new - season corn may decrease, and supply pressure may increase [8]. Sugar - ISMA's forecast of increased sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season has pressured the raw sugar price. Brazil's high - proportion sugar production has not led to a year - on - year increase in total sugar output. India and Thailand have full expectations of a good harvest. The raw sugar price is unlikely to break the previous low in the short - term, but the overall trend is bearish. Zheng sugar has rebounded but is under pressure from increased imports [12]. Cotton - The spot basis of cotton is temporarily firm, and the downstream industry has shown marginal improvement. However, downstream confidence is still insufficient, and the expected increase in new - season cotton production will bring long - term supply pressure. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and long - term prices may face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have reached a phased low, which may stimulate downstream procurement. However, high inventory levels and the impact of cold - stored eggs will suppress price increases. The overall trend of egg futures is bearish [16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil**: On August 14, the spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9380 yuan, the futures price (P2601) dropped 1.38% to 9294 yuan, and the basis increased 295.45%. Inventory is expected to rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 8840 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) was 8592 yuan, and the basis increased 20.97%. Factory inventory may decrease after peaking [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In Jiangsu, the spot price dropped 2.53% to 10000 yuan, the futures price (OI601) dropped 2.16% to 9852 yuan, and the basis decreased 22.51% [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price remained unchanged at 3090 yuan, the futures price (M2601) dropped 0.19% to 3157 yuan, and the basis increased 8.22%. The Brazilian 10 - month shipping schedule's import profit increased 680% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price dropped 2.26% to 2600 yuan, the futures price (RM2601) dropped 3.05% to 2606 yuan, and the basis increased 78.57%. The Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import profit increased 36.92% [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3960 yuan, the futures price of the main contract dropped 1.61% to 4041 yuan, and the basis increased 44.90% [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Spot Prices**: On August 15, the spot price in Shandong increased by 100 yuan to 13900 yuan, while prices in other regions had minor changes [4]. - **Other Indicators**: Sample point slaughter volume decreased 0.16%, and the weekly white - striped pork price decreased 0.25%. Piglet prices decreased 3.7%, and sow prices decreased 0.03% [5]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2509 increased 0.09% to 2281 yuan, the basis increased 85.71%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased 20% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2509 decreased 0.11% to 2648 yuan, the basis increased 5.08%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased 21.54% [8]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 increased 0.04% to 5659 yuan, and the ICE raw sugar main contract dropped 1.49% to 16.58 cents [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning increased 0.17% to 5980 yuan, and the basis increased [12]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased 12.03% year - on - year, and sales increased 23.07%. Industrial inventory decreased 9.56% [12]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2509 increased 0.33% to 13875 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread increased 6.67% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased 0.02% to 15060 yuan, and the basis decreased [13]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased 13.9%, and industrial inventory increased 1.8%. Cotton outbound shipping volume increased 22.6% [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The egg 09 contract dropped 2.62% to 3191 yuan, and the 9 - 10 spread decreased 97.83% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The egg产区 price remained unchanged at 3.12 yuan per catty, and the basis increased 53.95% [16]. - **Industry Indicators**: The egg - feed ratio decreased 7.2%, and the breeding profit decreased 111.23% [16].

2025 年 08 月 15 日 豆粕：美豆冲高回落，连粕调整震荡 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 4041 | -46（-1.13%） | 4049 | -22 （-0.54%） | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3157 | +12 （+0.38%） | 3140 | -24（-0.76%） | | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1031 | -11 （-1.06%） | | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 295.6 | -1.6（-0.54%） | n a | | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | | 3080～3120， M2509+30/+60， 持平； | 较昨持平至+20； 9月M2509+0/+10/+40， | 8月25日前提货M2509-60， 持平； | 持平； 8-9月 10月 ...

2025 年 8 月 15 日 沥青：华东出货局部好转 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,510 | -0.68% | 3,510 | 0.00% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,472 | -0.88% | 3,466 | -0.17% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 13,139 | 705 | 37,544 | (3,639) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 153,819 | 30,630 | 224,823 | (176) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 73550 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差变动 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives short - term investment outlooks for individual commodities: - **Short - term bullish**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil [1] - **Cautiously bullish**: Cotton, red dates, live pigs [1] Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: In a large - range market due to the intersection of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. After the US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report, the final US soybean production and ending stocks decreased month - on - month. However, considering the price of Argentine soybean meal and the limited reduction in US soybean production, be cautious when chasing long positions [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Supported by factors such as the expected decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed. But the high inventory and policy implementation may affect the market sentiment [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for market consumption expectations. Although there was profit - taking recently, the overall trend is still bullish on dips [1]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. The short - term focus is on the supply before the new cotton is on the market. The rapid de - stocking and the lack of import quotas support the price. With the "Golden September and Silver October" approaching, the demand is expected to improve, but the remaining upside space may be limited [1]. - **Red Dates**: There is still a large divergence in the market regarding the reduction in production. The expected total production of Xinjiang southern grey dates in the 2025/26 season is between 50 - 58 million tons. The short - term speculation around the purchase price before November is beneficial for the bullish trend [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure is high, but the long - term reduction in capacity by leading enterprises may push up the far - month contracts. The situation of "weak reality and strong expectation" is obvious, and it is recommended to establish long positions in far - month contracts on dips [1]. Summary by Commodity Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: Futures price was 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3118.29 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis of some contracts increased [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 893.8 million tons, up 70.10 million tons week - on - week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 710.56 million tons, up 8.38% week - on - week; the bean粕 inventory was 100.35 million tons, down 3.66% week - on - week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: Futures price was 2686 yuan/ton, down 1.36% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2663.16 yuan/ton, down 2.28%. The rapeseed spot crushing profit decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 13.88 million tons, up 2.28 million tons week - on - week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons week - on - week [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: Futures price was 9368 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous day; the national average price was 9408 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. The import cost decreased slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, up 3.02% week - on - week and 1.12% year - on - year [8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures prices of some contracts increased slightly, while the ICE cotton main contract decreased. The domestic spot price increased slightly [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the US cotton condition weakened slightly, while India's sowing area increased. Domestically, Xinjiang's new cotton production is expected to increase, and the commercial inventory decreased, providing support for the price. The downstream demand is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October" [10][11]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2601 decreased 0.74% to 11460 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions remained stable [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The new - season jujubes are in the fruit - setting period. The market focuses on the weather. The estimated new - season production is expected to decrease, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down [14]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased 1.52% to 13900 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the planned August出栏 volume increased, and the supply pressure is high. In the long term, the reduction in capacity by leading enterprises may push up the price. The current demand is in the off - season [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a low - buying strategy is recommended [2]. - Soybean oil: Bullish factors have been fully priced in, and there may be a correction at high levels [2]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans have risen and then fallen, and the Dalian soybean meal futures will adjust and fluctuate [2]. - Soybean No.1: The futures price will fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It will move in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Sugar: It will consolidate within a range [2]. - Eggs: The price will adjust in a fluctuating way [2]. - Live pigs: Second - fattening has entered the market, but the spot performance is below expectations [2]. - Peanuts: The near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,294 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.38%, and the night - session closing price was 9,386 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.99%. Soybean oil's daytime closing price was 8,540 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 8,512 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.33% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June. The total vegetable oil imports in July were 1,579,041 tons, up from 1,549,825 tons in June. ICE Canadian canola futures closed down 0.8%, and CBOT soybean futures fell 1.5% due to profit - taking and export concerns. CONAB and ABIOVE both raised their forecasts for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production and exports [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [9]. 2. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No.1 2511's daytime closing price was 4,041 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 4,049 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%. DCE soybean meal 2601's daytime closing price was 3,157 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.38%, and the night - session closing price was 3,140 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, CBOT soybean futures fell from a six - week high due to profit - taking and export concerns. The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed a significant reduction in 2024/25 US soybean net sales [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0 [12]. 3. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,281 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase during the day and 2,279 yuan/ton with a 0.09% decline at night. The closing price of C2511 was 2,202 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decline during the day and 2,197 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decline at night [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port collection prices were stable, while prices in Northeast and North China were weak. Imported sorghum and barley had different price quotes for different shipment periods [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [15]. 4. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.58 cents/pound with a 0.27 - cent decline. The mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase. The futures主力 price was 5,659 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan increase [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon rainfall has weakened. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June. CAOC made production, consumption, and import forecasts for the 24/25 and 25/26 domestic sugar seasons. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 season [16][17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [19]. 5. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,191 yuan/500 kilograms with a 3.01% decline, and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,578 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.11% decline [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [20]. 6. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,930 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13,550 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 15,190 yuan/ton. The prices of futures contracts such as live pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 all showed year - on - year declines [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 1 [24]. - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increased, while散户 were forced to hold back pigs. Demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the industrial willingness to deliver is increasing. There is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure maintains an inverse spread [25]. 7. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of important spot peanuts such as Liaoning 308 common peanuts remained unchanged. The closing price of PK510 was 8,058 yuan/ton with a 1.03% decline, and the closing price of PK511 was 7,884 yuan/ton with a 1.40% decline [27]. - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts have been gradually coming onto the market in small quantities in some areas, with uneven quality and small supply. Most areas' prices are stable or slightly weak [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy - chemical sector. Most energy - chemical products are facing weak fundamentals and show a downward trend in the short - term technical analysis, with investment strategies mainly suggesting holding short positions [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: In September, the production increase rate continued at 547,000 barrels per day. The end of the peak season in the US led to weak apparent demand, and the supply - demand fundamentals continued to deteriorate. Geopolitically, the US and Russia agreed to hold cease - fire negotiations on the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term and hourly - level short - term are both in a downward structure. After today's decline, the daily - level break - down was confirmed, and the short - term pressure on the hourly level moved down to 490. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [3]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: In August, demand was still in the off - season and remained weak. The supply start - up rate remained at a high level of around 77%. With the commissioning of new plants, supply pressure would further increase, and inventory pressure was relatively high year - on - year [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined, testing the lower edge of the 15 - minute oscillation. The short - term pressure above is at 7375. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [6]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: According to the seasonal pattern, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply side has difficulty increasing production. Although there is some impact from the rainy season in the producing areas, there is no extreme weather. Short - term tire start - up has improved, but high tire inventory still suppresses the expectation of further start - up recovery. The mid - term fundamental driver is downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term and hourly - level short - term are both in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined. The 15 - minute small cycle turned down, and there was a reversal signal at the 15950 pressure level on the hourly level. There is an opportunity to try short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15950 [9]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The demand side of tires is expected to remain weak in the medium term. The supply side has not resumed production after maintenance, and production is higher than new capacity, so it is bearish in the medium term. Short - term support comes from the low inventory of upstream butadiene [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined. There was a confirmed reversal signal at the 11950 short - term pressure level of the 10 - contract. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The upstream PX device is operating stably. The start - up of downstream terminals has increased at a low level during the off - peak to peak season transition. There is no major short - term contradiction, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and had a long negative line. After a short - term break - down, the decline accelerated, and the short - term pressure above moved down to 6735. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [16]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Polyester demand is weak. The supply - side start - up is at a medium level year - on - year. Short - term inventory has turned to accumulation. There is no obvious contradiction, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined during the day. After a short - term break - down, the decline may accelerate. The short - term pressure above still focuses on 4760. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. (7) PP - **Logic**: In the off - season of demand, downstream start - up is weak. With the commissioning of new capacity and the restart of maintenance devices, inventory in each link of the industrial chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. Also, pay attention to the trend of crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated during the day without changing the downward structure. The hourly pressure level of 7195 is far away, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure of 7090 can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The supply - side start - up rate has rebounded to 73% after two consecutive weeks of increase, remaining at the highest level in history year - on - year. The arrival in July was low due to Iranian plant shutdowns, but the Iranian plants resumed in August, and the arrival is expected to increase significantly. Downstream demand is differentiated. Under high - supply pressure, port inventory has reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the fundamental driver is weak [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in a downward/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. After a long negative line with increased positions and volume today, the short - term break - down accelerated, and the short - term pressure above is 2400. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [24]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Some supply - side devices have ended maintenance, and the start - up rate has rebounded to a high level of 77.8% year - on - year. Demand is difficult to improve due to the downward real - estate market and the off - season. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is evident, and the fundamental driver is bearish [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an upward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. After a long negative line with increased positions and volume today, it is still on a downward path, and the short - term pressure above is 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy - chemical products, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upward space. Pay attention to the start time of inventory accumulation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it declined with volume. Wait for the confirmation of a break - down and then the decline will accelerate. The short - term pressure above is 4415. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The start - up rate has increased, and with the commissioning of new capacity, the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream start - up rate remains at a low level year - on - year. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is evident, and the supply - demand driver is bearish [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. Today, it oscillated during the day, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. The 15 - minute level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7320 [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply side continued to increase production last week, with a month - on - month increase of 45,000 tons in output. On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand for glass, speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased significantly again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand pressure of soda ash remains high. The anti - involution has no substantial impact on the soda ash supply [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated. The 09 and 01 contracts still have differentiated structures, with the 09 contract declining and the 01 contract rising. There was a reversal signal at the 1295 pressure level of the 09 contract during the session. There is an opportunity to try short positions on the 09 contract, with a stop - loss reference of 1310 [33]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: On the demand side, the start - up of alumina remains at a high level, and the start - up of non - aluminum demand viscose staple fiber has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has also increased rapidly, the chlor - alkali profit has increased, and the caustic soda start - up has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals remain weak [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. The 09 and 01 contracts are still differentiated. The 01 contract has a strong structure but performed weakly today, and the 09 contract has a weaker structure but performed strongly today. At the same time, the 09 contract shows signs of breaking through the 2540 pressure. The strategy is to start from the 15 - minute cycle of the 09 contract and try short positions after breaking through the 15 - minute 2515 support, with a stop - loss at today's high [37].

| Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月14日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，棉花现货主流销售基差暂稳，现货成交一般。纯棉纱本周交投好转，价格稳中略偏强。截至7月底，商业库 在为218.98万吨，环比减少64万吨，同比减少58.8万吨。其中新疆疆内棉花库存为119.83万吨，环比减少52.74万吨，同比减少 35.65万吨，国内7月份库存消化尚可，预计8月份消化环比好转。宏观上市场对于 ...