1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips [3] - In the medium to long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On January 30th, the four major A - share stock indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.96% to close at 4117.95 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.66% to close at 14205.89 points; the ChiNext Index rose 1.27% to close at 3346.36 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.12% to close at 1509.4 points. The market turnover was 28,624 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,970 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+3.44%), electronics (+0.68%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+0.65%) led the gains; non - ferrous metals (-7.8%), steel (-2.83%), and food and beverage (-2.78%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IM>IF>IH>IC. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,449/128/2,894 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale and retail investors had net inflows of - 303, - 293, 18, and 578 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 7, +13, - 50, and +44 billion yuan respectively [2] - On January 30th, the Treasury bond futures showed a weak trend. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0%, TF rose 0.01%, T rose 0.06%, and TL fell 0.23% [3] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was - 5.74, 8.12, - 4.66, and - 7.5 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were 0.58%, - 0.81%, 0.83%, and 2.04% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 96%, 84%, 70%, and 73% respectively [3] - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various stock index futures contracts such as IC, IF, IH, and IM, including price, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of - 1bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.05, and an IRR of 1.2%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.018, and an IRR of 1.45%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 0.65bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.018, and an IRR of 1.45%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.053, and an IRR of 1.27% [3] - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various Treasury bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, and TL, including price, trading volume, open interest, etc. [8] 3.4 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the import and export sentiment exceeded expectations, the real estate and social activity sentiment was lower than in previous periods, and the manufacturing and infrastructure sentiment was similar to previous periods [11]

新华财经柏林2月1日电（记者李函林 车云龙） 德国联邦劳工局1月30日公布的数据显示，今年1月德国登记失业人数达308.5万，较上月增加17.7万，创下 12年以来最高水平。当月，德国失业率升至6.6%。 德国总理默茨在社交媒体X上表示，失业人数突破300万是一个警示信号，企业破产情况值得关注。他指出，德国政府推出了多项经济扶持措施，但效果 仍不明显，"经济复苏必须成为今年的核心议题"。 德国联邦劳工局局长安德烈娅·纳勒斯表示，目前德国劳动力市场整体动能不足，年初失业人数上升主要受季节性因素影响，今年推动工业、贸易等关键 领域尽快企稳回升仍是当务之急。 德国经济2023年和2024年连续萎缩，2025年增长0.2%。自2025年5月上任以来，默茨承诺通过大规模公共支出、加大国防和基础设施投资等措施重振经 济。但企业界普遍认为，改革推进速度仍显不足。 德国联邦政府日前发布的年度经济报告预计，2026年德国经济增速为1%，较去年秋季预测值下调0.3个百分点。这显示，短期内德国经济复苏仍面临压 力。 分析人士指出，德国经济长期面临能源价格高企、全球需求疲软以及结构性改革推进缓慢等压力和挑战。2025年，受美国加征关 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent decline in gold and silver prices, attributing it not solely to the new Federal Reserve chairman but to broader economic factors and the interests of various stakeholders [1] - The author mentions a reduction in positions in non-ferrous metals while maintaining holdings in copper and aluminum, indicating a cautious investment strategy in overheated markets [1] - The current environment of currency devaluation and unchanged supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals suggests a focus on fundamental analysis to identify structural opportunities [1] Group 2 - The potential for larger regional conflicts could lead to a reevaluation of all investment logic, highlighting the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and market stability [2]

经济放缓周期，让中产陷入困境的，从来不是月薪从5万降到3万，生活品质就从5万降到3万的问题。 而是月薪5万时，就已经以5万为基准，透支了未来十年，二十年的收入。 由于债务的支出是刚性的，所以月薪下降后，现金流可能就转负数了，这时就只能卖房向全社会要流动性。 我们知道，在楼市，占比总房源1%的交易量，其边际交易价格，决定了整个楼市的市值，以及房价的涨跌。 所以，即使只是一小部分人收入下行，扛不住负向现金流，导致他们卖房回收流动性，就会引起房价的涨跌大周期。 因此，我们把居民收入，以及居民对自己收入的未来预期，称之为楼市的核心基本面。 核心基本面决定了楼市的涨跌，以及合理价格。 在合理价格之上，居民对楼市的涨跌预期，又决定了楼市在合理价格上的超涨或超跌。 比如，即使房价已经达到了居民收入匹配的水平，但如果所有人都认为房价会涨，那么价格就会超涨，反之，价格也会超跌。 大家知道，现在互联网上，大体都是同一种声音，也就是看涨，并且这种声音，已经影响到居民预期，所以超跌的可能性，已经不复存在。 那么根据我们统计的结果，沪深300和中证500在历经了从2021年开始的4年的营收增速持续下滑并转负后，在2025年三季度，我们 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the A-share market showed an upward trend with some fluctuations, and index performance varied. The stock index futures basis converged significantly, and the near-month contracts were in full premium. The market is expected to continue its upward trend after short-term volatility, supported by economic recovery [4][5][46] Summary by Relevant Catalog First Part: Preface Summary - **Market Review**: In January, the A-share market trended upward with fluctuations, and the performance of different indexes varied. The stock index futures basis converged significantly, especially for IC near-month contracts and IM current contracts, which showed continuous premiums. Trading volume and open interest increased significantly, indicating market optimism [4] - **Market Outlook**: Despite market fluctuations, the policy is clearly oriented towards stability and improvement. Economic data boosts confidence, and listed companies' performance forecasts are positive. The market has strong support, so the stock index is expected to continue to rise after short-term volatility [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral trading: expect an upward trend; Arbitrage: long IM/IC2609 contracts + short ETFs; Options: bull spread strategy [6] Second Part: January Market Review - **Stock Market - Upward with Fluctuations and Differentiated Rhythms**: In January, the A-share market trended upward with fluctuations, and the performance of different indexes varied. By January 29, the monthly increase of the CSI 300 index was 2.67%, the SSE 50 index rose 2.63%, the CSI 500 index rose 14.1%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 9.7%. Gold, non-ferrous metals, and oil and gas sectors led the gains, while banks, transportation, and agricultural products were the three declining sectors. Small-cap stocks were relatively more active [10][12] - **Stock Index Futures - Basis Convergence and Full Premium in Near-Month Contracts**: In January, the basis of stock index futures converged significantly compared to the previous month. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased significantly, especially for IC. The basis convergence significantly reduced the cost of short rollover for stock index futures. The net short position ratio of major seats increased [15][19][26] Third Part: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - **Data Boost Confidence**: In 2025, China's GDP exceeded 140 trillion yuan for the first time, with a 5.0% year-on-year increase. The PMI data in December returned above 50, indicating economic recovery. The CPI reached its highest level since March 2023, and the PPI showed improvement. China has emerged from the shadow of deflation, and the economic fundamentals are improving [30][31][36] - **Stable Policy Guidance**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining stability in the capital market in 2026. Since January, the market has cooled down, and the stability expectation has increased, laying a foundation for the annual market [37] - **Good Market Acceptance**: In January, ETF funds showed significant trading volume. Although there were large net redemptions, the overall stock index did not decline significantly, indicating strong market support [38][39][42] - **Positive Annual Report Forecasts**: As of January 29, 2026, 1,203 out of 2,106 listed companies that had released 2025 performance forecasts showed positive changes, accounting for 57%. The overall performance of listed companies is improving, which is a positive factor for the market [43][45] - **Future Strategies**: The stock index is expected to continue its upward trend after short-term volatility, supported by economic recovery [46]

流动性方面，A500ETF基金(512050)盘中换手18.09%，成交74.03亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截 至1月29日，A500ETF基金(512050)近1年日均成交53.24亿元。 截至2026年1月30日 10:50，中证A500指数(000510)成分股方面涨跌互现，湖南黄金领涨9.99%，光线传 媒上涨9.53%，航天发展上涨8.87%；南山铝业领跌。A500ETF基金(512050)最新报价1.23元。 湘财证券指出，在春季行情中，2月多数处于相对高潮阶段。就 2026年2月的宏观面、市场面和基本面 分解，由于2026年春季行情的展开符合此前春季行情的整体规律，虽然略有提前，但目前发展节奏符 合"慢牛"特征，对于2月，尤其是春节前的行情开展，依旧相对乐观。 A500ETF基金紧密跟踪中证A500指数，中证A500指数从各行业选取市值较大、流动性较好的500只证券 作为指数样本，以反映各行业最具代表性上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证A500指数(000510)前十大权重股分别为宁德时代、贵州茅台、中 国平安、中际旭创、紫金矿业、招商银行、新易盛、美的集 ...

1 月 30 日， A 股早盘低开低走。截至发稿，沪指跌破 4100 点，上证指数和深证成指跌幅均超1.5%。 板块方面，有色金属、钢铁、建材等跌幅居前。有色板块现跌停潮，南山铝业、铜陵有色、白银有色、云南铜业、兴业银锡等近 30 股跌停。 农业、文化传媒、银行等板块逆势上涨。 | 万得全A | 创业板指 | | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6719.75 | 3285.53 | | 1519.29 | | -127.53 -1.86% | -18.98 -0.57% | | -16.71 -1.09% | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | | 中证A500 | | 4677.87 | 8270.91 | | 5847.13 | | -76.00 -1.60% -246.94 -2.90% -121.78 -2.04% | | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | | 中证红利 | | 8150.97 | 5793.86 | | 5690.23 | | -181.24 -2.18% | -60.46 -1.03% | | -67.41 -1.17% | | ...

中证报中证网讯（记者 连润）中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）宏观政策季度报告（2025年四季度） 发布会日前在北京举行。CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌在发布会上 表示，我国宏观经济在2025年出现了诸多经济复苏早期阶段特征，2026年，要以货币政策激发扩大内需 的内生动力。 对于2025年我国宏观经济，张斌表示，2025年宏观经济出现了一系列经济复苏早期特征。股票市 场、人民币汇率、社融增速、企业存款等金融指标明显改善，企业盈利止住连续下跌势头，消费、劳动 力市场总体运行平稳。 对于2026年如何扩大内需，张斌表示，2026年逆周期政策力度是关键，财政政策有望比2025年更积 极，此外，要通过更积极的货币政策来实现内生增长动力的改善。宽松的货币政策要通过"改变价格预 期"和"让企业居民算得过来账"发挥作用。具体而言，可通过更加明确的通胀预期管理和降低政策利 率，让企业投资和居民买房能"算过来账"，激活经济持续复苏的内生增长动力。此外，要坚定对货币政 策发挥扩大内需作用的信心，打消货币政策使用中的各种疑虑。 ...

"内需"是当前观察中国经济的关键词 。 最新数据显示 ， 2025年中国社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元，消费对经济增长的贡献率稳 固在52%。然而， 经济"暖数据"之下，居民消费与企业投资意愿偏冷的"温差"依然明显，多位经济 学家警示复苏的基础并不牢固。 "2025年的整个宏观经济积极一点说是处在经济复苏的早期阶段。"CF40资深研究员、中国社科院 世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，复苏的基础还不牢固，内生增长的动力还得不到支撑。 这考验宏观调控的智慧。 01 复苏进行时：基础是否牢固？ 国家统计局近日发布数据显示， 2025年中国国内生产总值（GDP）首次跃上140万亿元新台阶，按 不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%。 2025年社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元，比上年增长 3.7%。全年服务零售额比上年增长5.5%，最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率达52%。 金融市场上，股票市场、人民币汇率、社融增速、企业存款等金融指标有明显提升，企业盈利止住了 连续多年的下行趋势，消费、劳动力市场总体运行平稳。 " 2025年的整个宏观经济积极一点说 是 处在 经济复苏的早期阶段。 "张斌同时强调，"复苏的基 础还 ...

金融研究 2026年1月29日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：1 月 28 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.27%，报收 4151.24 点；深成 指上涨 0.09%，报收 14342.89 点；创业板指下跌 0.57%，报收 3323.56 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.08%， 报收 1554.8 点。市场成交 29,923 亿元，较前日增加 708 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+5.92%)， 石油石化(+3.54%)，煤炭(+3.42%)涨幅居前；综合(-2.53%)，传媒(-1.77%)，国防军工(-1.68%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IH>IF>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,736/97/3,637。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-119、-156、56、219 亿元，分别变动+55、+84、+43、-182 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 21.99、-20.84、-14.81 与-9.24 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-2.05%、1.89%、2.45%与 2.36%，三年期历史分位数 ...