Group 1: Copper - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Copper prices show strong resilience due to US tariff policies despite the domestic market entering the off - season. There are concerns about supply due to the shutdown of the Kamoa copper mine [1] - Summary: - Intraday View: Fluctuate between 77,500 - 79,000 [1] - Medium - term View: Fluctuate between 66,000 - 90,000 [1] - Reference Strategy: Adopt an oscillating operation approach [1] - Core Logic: Macro - Trump postponed EU tariffs, increasing market risk appetite; Supply - LME available inventory dropped to a one - year low, and the Kakula copper mine in Congo stopped production; Demand - US tariff policy boosted import demand, while domestic downstream demand declined; Inventory - LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased [1] Group 2: Protein Meal - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The trend of soybean meal being stronger in the far - term than the near - term is weakening. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options on near - term soybean meal contracts and holding the "long soybean oil 2509 - short palm oil 2509" position [4][6] - Summary: - Intraday View: Soybean and rapeseed meal continue to fluctuate widely [2] - Medium - term View: The far - strong and near - weak trend of soybean meal weakens [4] - Reference Strategy: Sell the out - of - the - money put option of soybean meal 2509 - P - 2850 [4] - Core Logic: As of May 27, the basis of soybean meal spot - 09 was negative. There may be positive factors from US soybean shipments and weather speculation. Domestic soybean meal has the characteristic of "not following the rise of the external market". The US biodiesel policy and RVO obligations have uncertainties. South American soybean production is finalized, and the focus shifts to North America. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, while Ukrainian rapeseed production is expected to decline [4][5][6] Group 3: Petroleum Asphalt - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: In the short term, asphalt prices face upward pressure due to factors such as rainfall and funds. In the long term, with the increase in supply and weak demand, if oil prices decline, asphalt prices are expected to follow a weak trend [8][10] - Summary: - Intraday View: Operate under pressure [7] - Medium - term View: Oscillate weakly [7] - Reference Strategy: Sell at high prices [8] - Core Logic: Supply - Local refineries are in a loss - making state, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has declined. Production is expected to increase in May. Demand - Rainfall in some areas and poor project funds have led to weak demand. Inventory - Asphalt plant inventory has decreased, while social inventory has increased. Cost - Oil price fluctuations are large, and there is support from raw material costs [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

【螺纹热卷：成材宜逢高空，勿追空】昨日成材价格弱势，跌破前期低点。前期上涨已消化中美关税利 好，后期需关注抢出口需求增量。国内宏观政策真空，贸易关税暂停，大规模刺激政策推出延迟。螺纹 产量因钢厂复产环比回升，电炉开工及日耗走高，总库存环比下降但降幅收窄，表需数据环比回落受降 雨影响，将入需求淡季预期走弱。热卷产量因钢厂检修环比回落，总库存环比下降压力不大，国内终端 需求上方空间有限，关注出口修复带来的实际需求增量。策略上，成材宜逢高空，勿追空，关注终端需 求。【铁矿石：短期单边宜区间操作】昨日连铁偏弱，09 合约收盘 706.5，跌幅 1.60%，现货市场心态 谨慎观望，港口现货成交回落，近期到港偏低支撑现货价格，基差走强。供应端，二季度中后期外矿发 运季节性增加；需求端，铁水产量连续两期高位回落，本周 SMM 检修影响量 99.21 万吨，环比增加 0.47 万吨，预计近期铁水高位小幅波动。港口库存因到港偏低继续去化。现实层面铁矿石高需求、紧平 衡支撑仍在，边际风险来自铁水高位回落和外矿发运季节性增加，短期单边宜区间操作；中长期若需求 转弱预期兑现，矿价有较大回调空间，继续逢高沽空。【焦煤：作黑链套利空配或 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Weak [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Low - long [1] - PTA: Low - long [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low - long [1] - Glass: Weak [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Short on rebounds [1] - Urea: Cautious low - long [1] - Asphalt: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products. For crude oil, OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, leading to weaker prices. For products like LPG, L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash, their fundamentals are weak, showing downward trends. PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have improving fundamentals and present low - long opportunities. Methanol is suitable for shorting on rebounds, and urea can be considered for cautious low - long positions. Asphalt shows a sideways trend [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.60%, Brent dropped 0.72%, and SC dropped 1.22% [2] - **基本逻辑**: The main drivers are the approaching summer consumption peak and OPEC+ entering the production - increasing stage. Supply - related events include the expiration of Chevron's operating license and Saudi's production and export changes. Demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted. Inventory data shows changes in various types of oil inventories in the US [3] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply is in surplus, with prices fluctuating between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is weak with support, and SC is in the range of [445 - 465] [4] 3.2 LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 22, the PG main contract closed at 4150 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6] - **基本逻辑**: The cost - end oil price is consolidating, and LPG's fundamentals are bearish. Factors include increasing commodity volume, factory inventory, and a sharp rise in warehouse receipts [7] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to OPEC+ production increase and tariff impacts. Technically, it is weak, and short positions can be partially closed. PG is in the range of [4110 - 4140] [8] 3.3 L - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 yuan/ton day - on - day [10] - **基本逻辑**: After the Sino - US tariff boost, the supply reduction has limited price support. Next week, production is expected to increase, and the market may be weak with a fluctuation range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short opportunities [11] 3.4 PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton day - on - day [13] - **基本逻辑**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve significantly, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, focusing on cost and supply changes [14] - **策略推荐**: Short on rebounds [14] 3.5 PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - **基本逻辑**: The domestic PVC market is weak. Supply is expected to increase, demand is low, and cost support is weak. The price is expected to be in the range of 4650 - 4850 yuan/ton [16] - **策略推荐**: Participate in the short - term [16] 3.6 PX - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PX spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 119 yuan/ton [17] - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The PXN spread is improved but still low, and the short - process PX - MX spread is seasonally high. The demand side may weaken due to PTA device maintenance [18] - **策略推荐**: PX is in the range of [6610, 6730] [19] 3.7 PTA - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PTA spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 86 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 221 yuan/ton [20] - **基本逻辑**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [21] - **策略推荐**: Look for low - long opportunities [21] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the MEG spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton. The EG6 - 9 spread was 55 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 108 yuan/ton [22] - **基本逻辑**: Device maintenance and low arrival volume relieve supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [23] - **策略推荐**: EG is in the range of [4400, 4480] [24] 3.9 Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market price decreased, the futures closed down, the basis widened, and the warehouse receipts decreased [25] - **基本逻辑**: Macroeconomic factors reduce market risk appetite. The glass demand is weak in the medium - term. The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the inventory is concentrated upstream and mid - stream [26] - **策略推荐**: None provided 3.10 Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The heavy - soda spot price decreased, the futures fluctuated at a low level, the basis fluctuated slightly, the warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecasts increased [28] - **基本逻辑**: The supply reduction due to maintenance provides some support, but new capacity release may lead to oversupply. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high [29] - **策略推荐**: SA is in the range of [1260, 1290] [29] 3.11 Methanol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the methanol spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2284 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 113 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 91 yuan/ton [30] - **基本逻辑**: The supply side has high pressure with high - load device operation and increasing arrival volume. The demand side improves slightly with MTO device load stabilizing. The cost support is weak [31] - **策略推荐**: MA is in the range of [2235, 2265] [31]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short - term long - allocation, medium - to - long - term short - allocation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: High - level oscillating [4] - Silver: Strong - side oscillating [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Rebounding [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebounding [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebounding [6] - Soybean No. 1: Rebounding [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: On - hold [8] - PTA: On - hold [9] - MEG: On - hold [9] - PR: On - hold [9] - PF: On - hold [9] Core Viewpoints - For the black industry, the previous policy - and sentiment - driven upward momentum is weakening, and the market is gradually returning to fundamentals. Each variety has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2] - In the financial market, with the phased results of Sino - US tariffs and the stabilization of the external market, the market risk - aversion sentiment has eased, and long positions in stock index futures can be held. Treasury bonds are in a narrow - range oscillation, and light long positions can be held [4] - In the precious metals market, the pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and various factors such as currency, finance, and geopolitics affect its price, which is expected to oscillate strongly [4] - In the light industry and agricultural products markets, various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, seasonality, and policies, and most are expected to oscillate [6][8] - In the polyester market, due to factors such as oil prices, raw material prices, and supply - demand, most products are in a state of waiting and watching [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The previous upward momentum is weakening, and it returns to fundamentals. In the short - term, it is supported by high steel mill profitability and new restocking demand, but port inventory is high. In the medium - to - long - term, domestic demand is weak, so a bearish view is taken [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply - demand of coking coal is loose, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved. Coke supply is increasing, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, following the trend of finished products [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The previous upward momentum is weakening, demand is falling back, and inventory may increase. Steel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed production, inventory has increased significantly, and demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is in the transition from peak to off - season, and the focus is on downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day's stock index performance varied, and funds flowed in and out of different sectors. With the phased results of Sino - US tariffs, long positions in stock index futures can be held [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and Treasury bonds are in a narrow - range oscillation. Long positions can be held lightly [4] - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and various factors affect its price. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and silver is also expected to oscillate strongly [4] Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: The cost price has decreased, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate [6] - **Logs**: Downstream demand is in the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Oils and fats**: Supply is abundant, it is the traditional consumption off - season, but pre - holiday stocking has improved spot consumption. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales [6] - **Meal products**: The inventory of new US soybeans may be tighter, and domestic soybean supply is turning loose. Meal products are expected to rebound in the short - term, and attention should be paid to weather and logistics [6] - **Live pigs**: Supply is relatively tight, demand is in the off - season, and cost provides support. Prices are expected to oscillate [8] - **Rubber**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is recovering, inventory accumulation is slowing down, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8] Polyester Market - **PX**: Oil prices are weakly consolidating, PX load is oscillating downwards, and it is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The possible acceleration of Russia - Ukraine peace talks may suppress oil price rebounds, and it is in a state of supply - demand destocking, mainly affected by raw material prices [9] - **MEG**: The supply - demand is not bad, but the macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the disk fluctuates widely [9] - **PR**: Oil price callback weakens cost support, and the market may adjust weakly and steadily [9] - **PF**: Downstream orders are insufficient, and cost support is unstable. The market is expected to be weakly sorted [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and the impact of US-China trade relations on it, along with the implications of interest rate policies by the central bank. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Outlook** The central bank is not expected to tighten monetary policy significantly in the short term due to the lack of consistent improvement in the economic fundamentals. The rise in funding rates in May is seen as normal, with current overnight rates remaining relatively loose, supporting a bullish stance on the bond market [1][3][2]. 2. **US-China Tariff Levels** It is anticipated that the US-China tariff levels will stabilize between 40-50% in 2025. The long-term decoupling trend in key sectors such as semiconductors and shipping remains unchanged, driven by the inadequacy of the US supply chain [4][5]. 3. **Impact of Tariffs on Corporate Profitability** The average profit margins for foreign trade enterprises are low, with B2B at approximately 10% and B2C at around 20%. An additional 10% tariff could lead many companies to operate at a loss. Therefore, maintaining the current tariff levels is deemed reasonable [6]. 4. **Ten-Year Treasury Yield Trends** The current yield on ten-year treasury bonds is close to 1.65%. A bearish outlook to 1.7% is considered neutral, and any adjustments are viewed as buying opportunities. The overall direction remains bullish for the bond market, even amidst short-term fluctuations [7][1]. 5. **Structural Tariffs and Industry Impact** Future total tariff levels are expected to remain stable, with a focus on structural tariffs such as the 232 and 301 trade laws, which could increase tariffs by 25% or more for specific industries. The relationship between the US and China is not expected to improve significantly [8]. 6. **Shift of Production Capacity Overseas** Companies are increasingly relocating production capacity overseas, despite lower labor costs abroad. The higher efficiency of domestic production and infrastructure leads to lower overall production costs domestically. This shift negatively impacts domestic employment and fiscal revenue [10]. 7. **Export Trends and Market Sentiment** Recent export data indicates a rise in the growth rate of high-value products, while labor-intensive products lag. This trend reflects a shift towards capital goods and raw materials in exports, which may pressure domestic employment and fiscal income [11]. 8. **Rising Overseas Shipping Costs** The increase in overseas shipping costs is attributed to shipping companies adjusting capacity and recovering demand in the US market. It is expected that shipping prices will remain high for the next four weeks before potentially declining [12]. 9. **Banking Sector and Interest Rate Adjustments** Large banks may lower deposit rates, which could benefit the bond market if the adjustments are significant (20-40 basis points). This would reduce the cost pressure on banks' liabilities, making bond purchases more attractive [17]. Other Important Insights - The current 90-day exemption period has led companies to prioritize existing orders, creating a cautious sentiment towards new orders due to potential tariff changes post-exemption [9]. - The central bank will only consider tightening monetary policy when there is a consistent improvement in financial data over at least a month [14]. - Current interest rates are difficult to lower due to market perceptions of instability, which affects bond market sentiment [15]. - Banks are not expected to engage in large-scale profit-taking in the second quarter, focusing instead on routine seasonal operations [16].

Trade Relations and Economic Indicators - The significant reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. has improved trade expectations, with the U.S. comprehensive tariff rate on China remaining around 40%[2] - April export data exceeded expectations, but PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, indicating underlying economic weaknesses[2] - New loan issuance in April was below expectations, with cumulative new household loans in the first four months at a near ten-year low[2] Market Trends and Monetary Policy - The bond market has entered a defensive phase, with yields generally rising; the 10-year government bond yield increased to 1.68% (+5bp) and the 30-year yield to 1.88% (+4bp)[11] - Market sentiment is shifting towards a "trend over volatility" approach, delaying expectations for further interest rate cuts until after Q2 data is released in July[2] - The likelihood of a return to a tight funding environment similar to Q1 is low due to several factors, including stable bank liabilities and a supportive central bank stance[3] Investment Strategy and Bond Valuation - The bond market is expected to experience a period of volatility, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7%[26] - In the short-term, the focus should be on evaluating price-performance ratios, particularly in the 1-3 year bond segment, which currently shows a high liquidity advantage[26] - For mid-term bonds (5-7 years), the pricing uncertainty is moderate, while the 10-year agricultural development bonds offer attractive spreads[6] Financial Products and Risk Assessment - The total scale of wealth management products decreased by 771 billion yuan to 31.49 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal decline[32] - The proportion of wealth management products with negative returns has slightly increased to 1.96%, but remains relatively low compared to historical levels[38] - The overall performance of wealth management products not meeting expectations has decreased to 17.4%, indicating improved performance across various institutions[44]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20210，基差-50，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周减6192吨至169665吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，中美关税传来利好，铝价偏强运行。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、铝棒库存维持历史高位，消费不佳。 2、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 3、铝材出口退税 ...

Macro Insights - US inflation continues to decline, with April CPI data showing a drop below expectations, indicating a weakening inflation risk due to tariff adjustments [3] - The reduction in tariffs suggests a decrease in recession risks for the US, allowing the Federal Reserve to adopt a more patient approach in observing economic changes [3] Industry Insights - MXD6, a high-performance engineering plastic, is experiencing high demand for lightweight and barrier packaging materials, indicating a broad market potential [4] - The company has been a leader in ion exchange and adsorption resin for nearly 30 years, focusing on R&D, production, and sales [5] - The company has achieved the top market share in the ADAS integrated machine market in 2024, with expectations for hardware shipments to exceed ten million units in 2025 [8] Company Performance - JD Group reported a 1Q2025 revenue of 301.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and a GAAP net profit of 10.89 billion yuan, up 52.7% year-on-year [9] - The company also reported a Non-GAAP net profit of 12.76 billion yuan, reflecting a 43.4% year-on-year growth [9]

当前的偏鹰基调转为鸽派，并开启新一轮的降息周期，中长期对于黄金来讲属于利多因素，短期内金价受 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 中美关税乐观预期影响或相对承压，回调压力仍存。白银方面，受全球贸易格局缓和预期提振，白银的工 业和商品属性的提振支撑银价，短期内金银比有望阶段性回落，但伴随全球央行购金需求稳步增长，金银 免责声明 | | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 761.72 | -5.96 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8195 | -24 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 214778 | 197 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 280768 | 92030 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 108018 | 1618 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 136345 | -7331 ...