专题：2026全球与中国资本市场展望论坛 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 1月15日，2026全球与中国资本市场展望论坛在京召开。申万宏源证券A股策略首席分析师傅静涛出席 论坛并发表《牛市两段论》主旨演讲。 傅静涛指出，当前市场对于宏观经济改善以及下一阶段中国经济增长驱动力的明确性仍存疑虑，对于其 能否为经济带来实质性弹性支撑，多数持审慎态度。然而，从策略研究与市场层面分析，有两个重要的 确定性趋势： 第一，上市公司的业绩改善其实要比总量经济的改善来得更加确定。第二，推动先进制造发展的核心逻 辑在于，中游制造业的供给出清已到达历史最高水平。尽管过去五年间市场持续讨论"内卷"与"反内 卷"，但至2026年，中游制造业有望率先走出通缩周期。在此背景下，上市公司层面中游制造领域的边 际改善，其确定性远高于上游周期性行业。 傅静涛进一步表示，若从周期投资与边际改善的角度出发，围绕中游制造展开的投资延伸，其确定性也 将高于钢铁、煤炭等传统周期品的扩散效应。落实到具体预测数据，他提出一个值得参考的判断：2026 年，A股市场有望迎来近五年来的两个"第一次"——一是A股总体盈利能力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of Huachuang Securities, Zhang Yu, predicts that the nominal GDP growth rate for 2026 will be around 4.5%-4.6%, with the real GDP growth rate expected to be in the range of 4.8%-5.0% [7][10]. Group 1: Economic Growth Analysis - Exports are expected to become the core driving force of economic growth, with growth rates likely to exceed the overall economic growth, providing crucial support for overall price levels and industrial prosperity [3][9]. - Consumption is viewed as a stabilizing force in the economy, with growth rates not being strong but also not too low, serving as a central stabilizing power [4][10]. - The main challenge lies in fixed asset investment, which is deeply tied to real estate and traditional economies, with growth rates expected to fall into a low range of 0-1%, posing downward pressure on the economy [4][10]. Group 2: Investment Insights - The prosperity of the midstream manufacturing sector is expected to be sustainable, driven by exports, and is not a short-term phenomenon. This trend is likely to continue for two to three years, leading to new market value structures and investment opportunities [5][10]. - The consumption sector holds value for allocation. Although consumption growth is stabilizing and lacks high growth potential, when valuations are adjusted appropriately and cost-effectiveness is highlighted, its stable high dividend characteristics will make it a valuable allocation choice [5][10].

Group 1 - The core logic for A-shares in 2026 is the dual resonance of traditional industry profit recovery and improved risk appetite [3] - The manufacturing, technology services, and non-bank financial sectors are expected to lead the profit recovery, with the real estate chain's profit squeeze being a key variable for A-share profit growth [3] - The macro backdrop of synchronized interest rate cuts in China and the US will create diverse investment opportunities, with a focus on long-term asset reallocation [4] Group 2 - The AI sector is shifting from hardware to applications, with significant long-term potential in areas like AI coding and autonomous driving [6] - The pharmaceutical industry is focusing on the global competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs, particularly in oncology, with an emphasis on safety and efficacy in selection [6] - The consumer sector is anticipated to improve with inflation recovery and service consumption upgrades, with a focus on sectors like tourism and aviation [6] Group 3 - The cyclical sector is expected to benefit from policy support and external demand recovery, with industrial metals and precious metals showing strong price support [7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, which will accelerate investments in key sectors like high-end equipment and green energy [7] - The fixed income and "fixed income plus" sectors should focus on capturing trading opportunities through flexible duration management [7] Group 4 - A diversified asset allocation strategy is crucial for risk dispersion in the context of global monetary easing and changing asset correlations [8] - The investment logic for Hong Kong and overseas markets will evolve with liquidity trends and industry developments, particularly in AI applications [9] - The 2026 investment landscape is characterized by structural opportunities in traditional industry profit recovery and breakthroughs in emerging sectors [9]

Inflation Data - December CPI increased to 0.8% year-on-year, the highest in 34 months, up 0.1 percentage points from November[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year, with a slight decrease in the non-gold core CPI to 0.83%[2] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - December PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points from November, indicating a substantial improvement[3] - PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month in December, above the seasonal average of -0.2%[3] - The PPI's tail effect is expected to drop sharply to -1.5 percentage points in January 2026, likely leading to a significant decline in year-on-year PPI data[3] Economic Outlook - The current price recovery is not firmly supported by effective demand, necessitating continued monetary easing and potential policy rate cuts to stimulate investment and consumption[4] - A genuine improvement in prices should stem from enhanced household income expectations and growth in terminal demand, rather than solely relying on low base effects from the previous year[3] Industry Analysis - Downstream industries may face dual pressures from rising raw material costs and stagnant factory prices, risking profit margin erosion, particularly in sectors lacking brand strength[3] - The recovery in PPI for downstream sectors is lagging compared to upstream sectors, indicating a potential risk of downward revisions in profit expectations for Q4[3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 experienced a structural trend with technology growth as a core theme, particularly in artificial intelligence-related sectors. Looking ahead to 2026, public funds anticipate a market driven by fundamentals, with technology growth remaining a key investment focus [1][8]. Summary by Sections 2025 A-share Market Overview - The A-share market in 2025 was characterized by a clear rotation of concept sectors, with major themes alternating and a rapid iteration of hotspots. Over 90% of concept indices saw an increase, with the synchronous reluctance motor achieving the highest growth at 165.05%, followed by optical communication modules at 156.02% [11]. 2026 Investment Outlook - Public funds predict a fundamental-driven market in 2026, with technology growth sectors still viewed as the main investment line. HSBC Jintrust Fund suggests a potential market rebalancing, shifting from TMT to lower-positioned industries with profit recovery potential. Investors focusing on safety margins should consider midstream manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors [9][11]. Sector-Specific Insights - CITIC Prudential Fund indicates that a solid growth style may persist throughout the year, but broad market rallies may end. Companies with genuine technological barriers and commercialization capabilities in AI applications, domestic substitution, and overseas expansion are expected to attract market attention due to their high growth potential [12]. - Zhongjia Fund emphasizes that technology, particularly AI, remains a focus for aggressive sectors in 2026, combining short-term performance with long-term narratives. Other sectors of interest include event-driven stocks and stable, defensive attributes in Hong Kong dividends, finance, agriculture, and precious metals [12].

A-share Market Insights - The market is expected to transition from "consolidation" to "spring rally" as the year-end approaches, with high-quality A-share assets offering attractive value globally [1][2] - Key investment directions include: 1) long-term opportunities in technology growth assets, 2) cyclical sectors with strong pricing power driven by supply-demand imbalances, and 3) blue-chip assets favored by long-term institutional investors [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The influx of southbound capital is accelerating, providing solid financial support for the Hong Kong market [2] - The easing of US-China trade tensions is likely to boost market risk appetite, while the anticipated December interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion by the Federal Reserve will enhance global liquidity, benefiting Hong Kong stocks [2] US Market Insights - Despite stable earnings projections for US stocks in 2025, valuation and market concentration have returned to historical highs, indicating potential for increased volatility [2] - Earnings growth in 2026 is expected to continue, driven by sustained AI demand, reduced tariff risks, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies [2] - Investment strategies may focus on two main themes: 1) ongoing narratives in technology stocks, particularly in AI, and 2) recovery opportunities in cyclical sectors, especially in midstream manufacturing and essential consumer goods [2] Domestic Bond Market Insights - The domestic bond market is entering a phase characterized by "weak economic recovery, stable yet easing policies, and central bank caution against excessive moves" [3] - The central bank's commitment to maintaining stable interest rates will limit the downward movement of long-term rates, leading to a range-bound market [3] - Investors are advised to shift focus from capital gains to coupon income and liquidity management, while closely monitoring potential signals from the central bank regarding long-term yield guidance [3] Commodity Market Insights - The ongoing anti-involution policies warrant attention to the actual implementation of capacity reduction measures [4] - Oil prices are under short-term pressure due to geopolitical tensions easing and OPEC+ shifting towards supply expansion [4] - Industrial metals are expected to see demand recovery driven by improved global economic growth forecasts, with supply-side disruptions likely to reshape the supply-demand landscape [4] - Gold's monetary attributes may continue to be favorable amid ongoing government leverage, particularly in the US, where long-term deficit rates are challenging to reduce [4]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, shifting from "expectation overdraft" to "profit realization," with performance certainty becoming the core basis for valuation [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In 2025, the A-share market showed a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 20% and reaching 4000 points at one point; technology growth stocks led the rally, with the ChiNext Index surging by 50% [3][4]. - The structural differentiation in the market is attributed to the evolution of asset pricing logic, focusing on technology growth sectors, particularly driven by new productive forces [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in the new productive forces sector (electronics, high-end equipment) and midstream manufacturing and upstream resource products [4][5]. - The consumer sector is expected to experience a "structural rise" rather than a full recovery, with new consumption trends becoming the main line of growth, while traditional consumption may see only a rebound from oversold conditions [5][6]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Factors - Policy measures aimed at promoting consumption are expected to resonate with changes in consumer behavior, benefiting virtual and emotional consumption sectors, such as AI-enabled consumption scenarios and digital cultural products [6]. - The share of service consumption in total consumption is projected to continue increasing, with emerging service sectors like health care and cultural tourism benefiting from supply optimization and scenario relaxation [6]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - For asset allocation in 2026, a strategy focusing on "offensive through profits, defensive through liquidity, and structural differentiation" is recommended [6]. - In the stock market, priority should be given to the new productive forces sector and cyclical products benefiting from PPI recovery, while maintaining low-volatility dividend stocks as a base [6]. - In the bond market, a "low volatility + narrow fluctuation" strategy is advised, emphasizing interest income and liquidity balance, with a focus on high-rated credit bonds [6][7].

2025 年，双创板块（科创板 + 创业板）凭借新质生产力的强劲赋能，成为国内市场耀眼的主线。作为双创板块核心缩 影的科创创业50指数(931643)，以 "跨市布局 + 硬科技聚焦" 的独特优势，交出了亮眼答卷。站在2025年末的时间节 点，这场"科技盛宴"是否已近尾声？2026年 "十五五" 规划开局之年，双创板块又将迎来哪些新机遇？本文将回顾双创 板块2025年的表现，并对2026年的行情做出展望。 一、2025 年复盘：硬科技领衔，双创板块"产业牛"深化 2025年双创板块成为引领 A 股成长风格的核心力量。科创创业50指数全年涨幅高达64.32% ，大幅跑赢沪深300 （18.21%）、中证A500（22.78%）等大盘宽基指数（截至2025.12.30）。市场关注度与流动性同步升温，成为板块强 势的重要佐证。2025 年，科创创业50指数的成交额相较2024年大幅增长120.68%，充分彰显了市场对双创板块硬科技 核心资产的认可。 图：双创板块大幅跑赢大盘宽基 （1）产业周期上行，盈利能力提升：双创板块聚焦的硬科技赛道技术突破与业绩落地形成良性循环，成为板块上涨 的核心驱动力。受益于全球竞争力提升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic strategies for asset allocation in 2026, emphasizing the importance of understanding economic cycles and the need for wealth management upgrades. The proposed strategy focuses on "risk premium decline, profit increase, and structural differentiation" as a framework for investment decisions [1][2]. Growth Factors - The expected GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is projected at 4.9% for real GDP and 5.2% for nominal GDP, indicating a moderate recovery characterized by a "stable real and rising nominal" trend. This recovery is supported by proactive fiscal policies and monetary easing, which bolster infrastructure and foster new productive capacities [3]. - Corporate profitability is anticipated to improve, with industrial profit margins expected to rise to 5.8%-6.0% and return on equity (ROE) for listed companies increasing to 9.5%-10%. This improvement is driven by supply-side reforms and a recovery in pricing power [4][5]. Inflation Factors - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately to a central value of 0.5% in 2026, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to turn positive in the third quarter, with an annual average of -0.4%. This reflects a weak recovery in consumption and a gradual alleviation of production pressures [6]. Liquidity Factors - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to remain low, with a "low first, high later" trend. The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is likely to be reduced by 10 basis points, aligning with growth stabilization policies while avoiding excessive pressure on bank profitability [7]. - The expected range for the USD/CNY exchange rate in 2026 is between 6.80 and 7.15, indicating a "first rise, then stabilize" pattern influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved foreign exchange supply-demand dynamics [7]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - Equity assets are likely to enter a "profit-driven" golden period, with a focus on new productive capacities and cyclical goods benefiting from PPI recovery expectations. This shift represents a significant change in risk asset pricing [10]. - The bond market is expected to exhibit "low volatility and narrow fluctuations," with a balanced approach to liquidity and yield. The reduction in LPR is favorable for high-rated credit bonds [10]. - Indirect investment tools such as wealth management products and funds are expected to benefit from the "residential savings migration," serving as a transitional option for conservative investors [10]. - The attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets is expected to increase, suggesting a moderate allocation to RMB-denominated equities and bonds to mitigate single currency risks [11].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the awakening of value in China's capital market, moving towards a low-volatility and high-Sharpe ratio investment phase [1][6][26]. Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to emerge from its low point and enter a recovery phase, with exports remaining a key support for macroeconomic performance in 2026 [1][30]. - Despite overall external demand pressure, China's manufacturing competitiveness remains intact, particularly in the midstream sector, which is expected to show resilience in exports [1][30]. - CPI is likely to trend positively, with a high certainty of turning positive, reflecting the ongoing recovery in domestic demand [1][30][33]. - PPI is expected to show an upward trend, but its year-on-year positive growth needs to be verified in the second quarter [1][30][37]. Policy Perspective - Macro policies are shifting away from "extraordinary" measures, focusing instead on stabilizing expectations and supporting economic operations [2][26]. - The emphasis will be on sustainable policy adjustments rather than large-scale stimulus, with a focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals [2][27]. Asset Allocation Insights - In 2026, a "dual bull market" in stocks and bonds is unlikely; the focus will be on asymmetric volatility between the two asset classes [2][5]. - Investors are encouraged to consider undervalued, high-dividend sectors for allocation, while speculative funds should target industries with high capacity utilization and limited capital expenditure [2][5]. Sector-Specific Analysis - The midstream manufacturing sector is identified as the most certain area of prosperity for 2026, supported by enhanced export competitiveness and the implementation of anti-involution policies [5][30]. - The return on equity (ROE) in midstream manufacturing is expected to stabilize and improve, with PPI year-on-year growth anticipated to stop declining in the first half of the year [5][30]. Market Dynamics - The trend of residents moving their savings into financial assets is expected to continue, although risk appetite may not rise rapidly [2][5]. - The stock market's trading volume is projected to remain high but may not see significant increases compared to previous years [2][5]. Price Trends - The housing market's recovery is contingent on mortgage rates being lower than rental yields, which is a critical condition for stabilizing property prices [5][40]. - The relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields is highlighted as a key indicator for predicting housing price stabilization [5][40].