Oil Market - Oil prices declined on Tuesday, with WTI January contract closing down $1.55 at $55.27 per barrel, a drop of 2.73% [2][13] - Brent February contract closed down $1.64 at $58.92 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71% [2][13] - API reported a decrease in US crude oil inventory by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 4.8 million barrels and 2.5 million barrels, respectively [2][13] - The market expected a decrease of about 1.1 million barrels in crude oil inventory [2][13] - Geopolitical factors have not caused a significant supply shortage, and oil prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom amid increasing macro risks [2][13] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.5% to 2368 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 2.42% to 2909 yuan/ton [3][14] - The market remains under pressure due to ample supply, with expectations of reduced arbitrage volumes from Western markets to Singapore [3][14] - Downstream demand for marine fuel remains stable, but high-sulfur fuel oil cracking profits have declined, potentially boosting demand from Asian refineries [3][14] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 2.36% to 2894 yuan/ton [4][15] - Tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about future raw material shortages, keeping the market relatively firm [4][15] - Domestic demand for asphalt shows significant regional differences, with the North focusing on storage and the South on actual consumption [4][15] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 30 yuan/ton to 15170 yuan/ton, while NR rose by 25 yuan/ton to 12385 yuan/ton [5][16] - Weather improvements in overseas production areas have led to lower raw material inventories compared to previous years [5][16] - Limited demand support is expected, leading to wide fluctuations in rubber futures prices [5][16] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 4668 yuan/ton, down 0.6%, while EG2605 closed at 3788 yuan/ton, up 3.75% [6][17] - PX futures closed at 6744 yuan/ton, down 0.59%, with spot prices at $827/ton [6][17] - Domestic supply pressures are expected to increase as new ethylene glycol plants come online, while some existing plants are facing losses [6][17] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2103 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $244-$248/ton [7][18] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is expected to weaken due to reduced operating rates in downstream MTO plants [7][18] - Overall, methanol prices are anticipated to remain under pressure [7][18] Polyolefins - Main PP prices in East China ranged from 6120-6350 yuan/ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [8][19] - PE prices are reported at 7839 yuan/ton for HDPE and 8491 yuan/ton for LDPE [8][19] - The market is transitioning to a supply strong and demand weak scenario, with limited downside for futures prices [8][19] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for different grades ranging from 4350-4600 yuan/ton [9][20] - Supply is expected to increase slightly due to some plants resuming operations, while demand is anticipated to slow down due to a decrease in real estate construction [9][20] - Overall, PVC prices are expected to trend towards a bottom [9][20] Urea - Urea futures prices showed wide fluctuations, with the January contract closing at 1630 yuan/ton [10][22] - The market is experiencing weak demand, with many regions showing a cautious purchasing sentiment [10][22] - Short-term market support is lacking, and there may be further price declines to reduce inventory [10][22] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed a firm trend, with the January contract closing at 1133 yuan/ton, up 1.52% [11][23] - Supply is slightly decreasing, while demand is expected to remain weak due to cautious sentiment in downstream industries [11][23] - The market is anticipated to maintain a strong but limited upward trend [11][23] Glass - Glass futures prices showed wide fluctuations, with the January contract closing at 946 yuan/ton [12][24] - The market is stable, with no significant changes in production lines, and demand remains cautious [12][24] - Short-term price trends are expected to continue fluctuating at the bottom [12][24]

化工日报 | 2025-12-16 EG主港延续累库，本周到港回归中性 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3651元/吨（较前一交易日变动+24元/吨，幅度+0.66%），EG华东市场现货价 3640元/吨（较前一交易日变动+38元/吨，幅度+1.05%），EG华东现货基差-17元/吨（环比+1元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-97美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1131 元/吨（环比+10元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为75.5万吨（环比+3.6万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数14万吨，副 港到港量2.2万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.8万吨，副港到港量3万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡略 累。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，本周乙二醇外轮到货量回归中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of polyolefins continues to be weak, with prices hitting new lows for the year, and the outlook remains bearish due to high supply and seasonal demand decline [2][18] Reality Factors - The primary pressure on polyolefins is high supply, with polypropylene weekly production reaching 808,000 tons (historical high), up 136,900 tons year-on-year, and polyethylene weekly production at 681,600 tons (historical high), up 117,500 tons year-on-year [3][19] - Inventory levels for polypropylene and polyethylene are also high, with respective inventories of 812,600 tons and 927,100 tons, up 194,000 tons and 96,300 tons year-on-year [3][20] - Demand is entering a seasonal decline, particularly for polyethylene, where key downstream sectors have seen a decrease in operating rates and orders for over four weeks [3][20] Expectation Factors - The large-scale capacity expansion in the polyolefin sector is leading to a more relaxed supply-demand balance, making shorting the industry profit a core trading logic [8][24] - Future capacity additions include 5.65 million tons for polypropylene and 6.78 million tons for polyethylene, which will further increase supply pressure [8][24] - The expectation is that polyolefin prices will follow other industrial products in a rebound, but the extent of the rebound will be weaker compared to other products [8][24] Summary - From a hedging perspective, the high production and inventory levels suggest that it is more suitable for industry players to hedge during price rebounds to alleviate inventory and sales pressure [10][25] - The current market dynamics favor downward price movements for polyolefins, making them a better choice for inter-product arbitrage [10][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations of various futures contracts, covering multiple sectors such as finance, metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, and gives corresponding operation suggestions based on market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selected Views - NI2601 is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - L2601 (LLDPE) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - rb2501 (coking coal) is expected to rebound from the bottom [3]. - M2605 (soybean meal) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. 3.2 Full - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to weak economic data in November, the stock index continued to trade in a shrinking - volume range. There is no clear upward trend, and the market lacks a dominant theme. It is advisable to be cautious about the risk of chasing highs in the trading range and appropriately lay out bull spreads at low levels [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still insensitive to economic data. In the absence of allocation demand, ultra - long bonds are weak. The upper limit of the 10 - year yield is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. T2603 should pay attention to the support around 107.6. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider the market as a narrow - range fluctuation. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage and basis widening opportunities of the 2603 contract [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold needs to build momentum to break through the previous high. Pay attention to the impact of US economic data and Fed officials' statements on market sentiment. Buy gold below $4,300. Silver may enter the overbought zone, so it is recommended to wait and see. For platinum and palladium, operate based on the external market, buy on dips, or use out - of - the - money call options instead of long positions, and control positions [3]. 3.2.2 Commodity Futures Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the range of 730 - 780. Consider the opportunity to expand the ratio of rebar to iron ore as iron water production drops. Go long on the January rebar - to - iron ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is expected to trade in the range of 1,000 - 1,150, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Coke is expected to trade in the range of 1,450 - 1,600, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, hold long - term long positions and pay attention to the support at 90,000 - 91,000. For aluminum, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21,700 - 22,400, and go long on dips. For zinc, pay attention to the support at 23,000 - 23,200 and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage. For tin, hold previous long positions and buy on dips. For nickel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 110,000 - 118,000. For stainless steel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12,200 - 12,800 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Petrochemicals**: PX is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. PTA is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and pay attention to the low - level positive spread opportunity for TA5 - 9. For short - fiber, the processing fee is mainly compressed, and the operation is the same as PTA. For bottle - grade polyester, the inventory decline supports the processing fee, and pay attention to the device restart and production progress. For ethanol, sell EG2605 - C - 4100 to obtain time value [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: For natural rubber, the price is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see. For synthetic rubber, due to the strengthening of the cost side, BR has risen strongly, and sell BR2602 - C - 11200 at high prices [3]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: For soybeans and soybean meal, the US soybeans have no bright spots, and pay attention to China's soybean customs clearance policy. For corn, the arrival volume has increased slightly, and the price is expected to be volatile and adjust. For edible oils, the US biodiesel blending quota is undecided, which may be negative for the oil market. The main contract of palm oil may test the support at 8,200 - 8,300 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: For pigs, the market is in a bottom - grinding phase. For eggs, pay attention to the support at the previous low. For apples, the price is expected to be volatile around 9,500 in the short term. For dates, high - sell and low - buy due to supply pressure and weak demand [3]. - **Cash Crops**: For sugar, the price is expected to be weakly volatile. For cotton, the price is expected to be strongly volatile, and pay attention to the resistance around 14,050 - 14,100 [3].

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gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 【原油】 美委紧张局势加剧，美国扣押了一艘戴有约185万桶委内瑞拉重质原油的邮轮，消息并未引发市场关 于供应中断的担忧。俄罗斯11月海运石油产品出口量仅比10月下降0.8%，炼油厂完成检修后复工抵 消了黑海等燃料出口量下降的影响。驱动油价核心因素仍围绕供应过剩压力,她缘消息频发下油价 波动加剧,但波动幅度及持续性正呈现弱化趋势。 (责金属) 周五美国科技股下跌带动金融市场剧烈波动,贵金属冲高回落。上周美联储如期降息同时宣布购债 计划,鲍威尔强调就业下行风险,会议释放中性偏鸽信号略超预期。短期市场波动放大,黄金关注 历史高点位置阻力,如果实现突破则贵金属近期强势表现有望延续。 【铜】 上周五夜盘铜价短线回调快，沪铜盘中减仓暂时关注MA10日均线表现。目前仓量仍高，周内关注美 国前期迟滞公布的经济指标与日本央行动作。多单减仓观望。 (铝) 周五美股下跌带动商品市场整体走弱,沪铝跌破22000元。近期铝市基本面矛盾有限,社库小幅下 降,现货反馈尚可,沪铝中期震荡偏强趋势维持,短期关注40日线和布林线中轨位置支撑。 (铸造铝合金) 废 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-12 EG主港延续累库，负荷下降 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3599元/吨（较前一交易日变动-83元/吨，幅度-2.25%），EG华东市场现货价 3613元/吨（较前一交易日变动-55元/吨，幅度-1.50%），EG华东现货基差-15元/吨（环比-4元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-94美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1104 元/吨（环比+52元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为81.9万吨（环比+6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为75.5万吨（环比+3.6万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数16.3万吨，副 港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数15.5万吨，副港到港量2万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，中东货源供应高位，月内远洋货到港 偏多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production at a very low level, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain the range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [3]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol futures market will enter a short - term consolidation. Although port inventory has decreased, future port pressure still exists due to high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals still face pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - The urea futures market continues to rise in shock. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock at a low valuation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. - The current view on rubber is neutral. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [13]. - The PVC fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historical low and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, the supply is high and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices before the industry substantially reduces production [14][16]. - The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. However, the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high overall inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected to be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices [26]. - For PTA, the processing fee is expected to gradually stabilize and repair, and the unexpected overhauls are expected to decrease. The polyester load is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle chip load is difficult to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is expected to decrease in December, and the inventory accumulation rate at the port may slow down. However, the medium - term supply situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to the rebound risk [29]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 4.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.04%, at 439.70 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 38.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.57%, at 2382.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 20.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.67%, at 2986.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 411.92 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; gasoline inventories increased by 6.40 million barrels to 220.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%; diesel inventories increased by 2.50 million barrels to 116.79 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.20 million barrels to 21.69 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.26%; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.38 million barrels to 42.57 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production at a very low level, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain the range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 27, in Lunan by 7.5, and in Inner Mongolia by 2.5. The 01 contract of the futures market increased by 21 yuan, reported at 2074 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 31. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 30, reported at - 46 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. Although port inventory has decreased, future port pressure still exists due to high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals still face pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract decreased by 7 yuan, reported at 1638 yuan, the basis was + 42, and the 1 - 5 spread was + 3, reported at - 65 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures market continues to rise in shock. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock at a low valuation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and consolidated. The low inventory of exchange - traded RU warehouse receipts was a bullish factor. The bulls were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than the previous week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than the previous week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Both domestic and export shipments slowed down. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 112.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1 tons, an increase of 1.9%; the total social inventory of dark rubber was 73 tons, an increase of 2.4%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%; and the total rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.48 (+ 0.98) tons [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current view is neutral. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 52 yuan, reported at 4276 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4300 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was 24 (+ 22) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 286 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 870 (0) yuan/ton, the ethylene price was 745 (0) US dollars/ton, and the caustic soda spot price was 710 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the calcium carbide method was 82.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene method was 73.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The in - plant inventory was 32.6 tons (+ 0.3), and the social inventory was 105.9 tons (+ 1.6) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historical low and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, the supply is high and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices before the industry substantially reduces production [14][16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene was 5265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5428 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton; the basis was 169 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB plant profit was - 225.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.42 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, an increase of 0.10%; the PS operating rate was 57.60%, an increase of 1.70%; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a decrease of 1.52%; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 45.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.93 tons, and the trader inventory was 4.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. However, the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis was 76 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 54.63 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75 tons, the trader inventory was 20.05 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 tons, and the port inventory was 6.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The LL - PP spread was 364 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton [23][24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high overall inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected to be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 80 yuan, reported at 6834 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 US dollars, reported at 836 US dollars. The basis was - 5 yuan (- 44) according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 1 - 3 spread was 18 yuan (+ 10). The PX load in China was 88.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 78.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and the Saudi Satorp plant overseas restarted. The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged from the previous month. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and a 550,000 - ton plant of China Taiwan FCFC was under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 13.9 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of December, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5 tons. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 tons. In terms of valuation cost, the PXN was 273 US dollars (+ 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (+ 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 101 US dollars (- 7) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 48 yuan, reported at 4664 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 35 yuan, reported at 4640 yuan. The basis was - 21 yuan (+ 4), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan (+ 10). The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged from the previous month. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and a 550,000 - ton plant of China Taiwan FCFC was under maintenance. The downstream load was 91.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The 300,000 - ton filament and 250,000 - ton staple fiber plants of Hengyi were under maintenance, and the 200,000 - ton long - stopped filament plant of Sanfangxiang restarted. The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 83%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 67%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 5 was 216.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 18 yuan to 172 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 193 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The processing fee is expected to gradually stabilize and repair, and the unexpected overhauls are expected to decrease. The polyester load is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle chip load is difficult to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 83 yuan, reported at 3599 yuan. The East China

2025 年 12 月 11 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.30%报 112.790 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.030 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 105.825 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.04%报 102.456 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 10 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1898 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量 1898 亿元，中标量 1898 亿元。Wind 数据显示，当日 793 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 1105 亿元。 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-11 EG主港延续累库,检修有所增多 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3682元/吨（较前一交易日变动-9元/吨，幅度-0.24%），EG华东市场现货价3668 元/吨（较前一交易日变动+22元/吨，幅度+0.60%），EG华东现货基差-11元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-94美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1155 元/吨（环比-17元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为81.9万吨（环比+6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为71.9万吨（环比+1.1万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数16.3万吨，副 港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数15.5万吨，副港到港量2万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，中东货源供应高位，月内远洋货到港 偏 ...