Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot and futures prices of ethylene glycol (EG) decreased, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4032 yuan/ton (down 68 yuan/ton, - 1.66% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot price at 4145 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton, - 0.31% from the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was 78 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 42 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was - 602 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The inventory of MEG in the East China main port showed different trends according to different data sources. According to CCF, it was 52.3 tons (down 5.6 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong, it was 49.9 tons (up 1.6 tons month - on - month). The planned arrival volume this week is large, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - In terms of supply and demand, the domestic ethylene glycol load is running at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. The import expectation changes little. On the demand side, the polyester downstream has moderately improved recently, which boosts the overall sentiment [2]. - The strategy suggests being cautiously bearish on the single - side, conducting an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605, and having no cross - variety strategy [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG East China spot price and basis are presented, with the price and basis changes as mentioned above [1][6][7] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and methanol - based EG are analyzed, along with the overall and syngas - based EG operating rates [1][10][14] International Price Difference - The international price difference between US FOB and China CFR of ethylene glycol is involved [17][19] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The production and sales of filaments and short fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips are included [18][20][22] Inventory Data - The inventory data of the East China port, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo Port, Jiangyin + Changzhou Port, Shanghai + Changshu Port, the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories, and the daily outbound volume of the East China port are analyzed [29][30][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure from supply and geopolitical factors. Crude oil faces supply pressure and geopolitical risks, and most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The polyester terminal demand is improving, but the supply side of chemicals is a key negative factor. The market's response to the Sino - US summit is "buy on the rumor, sell on the news," and the OPEC+ is likely to continue to increase production at the upcoming meeting. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Logic - The polyester chain's demand side is improving, with better terminal fabric shipments, inventory reduction, and improved nominal cash flow. However, the supply side of chemicals is a major negative factor. The meeting of the PTA and bottle - chip leading enterprises on the 30th had no substantial policies, which led to a decline in the day - trading session. [3] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: The Sino - US summit results are in line with expectations, but concerns about Russian oil remain. The macro and geopolitical drivers for oil prices are limited. Supply pressure suppresses prices, but geopolitical concerns still support prices to some extent. The price is expected to decline slowly and fluctuate weakly. [7] 3.2.2 Asphalt - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price has no support. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ may increase production in November, Saudi Arabia reduces the export discount of crude oil to Asia, and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict and the realization of the positive news from the Sino - US summit lead to a decline in oil prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the asphalt inventory pressure is large. [7] 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil, the fuel oil futures price is weak. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ supply increase and falling oil prices lead to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil prices. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate. The demand for fuel oil is still weak. [8] 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows crude oil fluctuations, has low valuation, and faces supply increase and demand decline trends. [10] 3.2.5 Methanol - **View**: The port inventory pressure still exists, the olefins have declined, and methanol fluctuates lower. - **Main Logic**: The futures price fluctuates lower. The high port inventory suppresses prices, but there is still low - buying value considering the potential Iranian disturbances in winter. [26] 3.2.6 Urea - **View**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is under continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the lack of export information updates from the nitrogen fertilizer association meeting. [26] 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: The coal - based production rate is continuously rising, and the supply - demand pattern deteriorates month - on - month. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak, the coal - based production rate is high, the supply - demand pattern weakens, and the port inventory accumulates. [18][19] 3.2.8 PX - **View**: The meeting has no substantial measures, and PX returns to the fundamental pricing logic. - **Main Logic**: The crude oil price fluctuates and falls. Some PX factories have maintenance, and the supply is temporarily stable. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the market gives back the previous emotional premium. [11] 3.2.9 PTA - **View**: The meeting has no substantial resolution, and PTA processing fees are still under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost fluctuates and falls, the meeting has no substantial production reduction, some devices may restart, and the downstream polyester demand provides some support. [12] 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The meeting has no positive news, the market sentiment turns cold, and polyester staple fiber remains consolidated. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is poor, the meeting has no clear production reduction measures, the supply side has a device restart, and the downstream demand is for rigid replenishment. The inventory is at a healthy level, and the profit has some support. [22][23] 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: The PTA anti - involution meeting has no positive news. - **Main Logic**: The meeting fails to support the price, the supply - demand is stable, and the absolute price follows the upstream fluctuation, while the processing fee has some support. [24] 3.2.12 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by macro - events, pure benzene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The naphtha price is strong, but the opening of the Shandong - East China arbitrage window and the rumored maintenance of styrene devices suppress the price. [14][15] 3.2.13 Styrene - **View**: After the macro - disturbance, styrene rises and then falls. - **Main Logic**: Styrene follows the oil price to rebound, but the rebound is weak due to new production capacity and weak downstream follow - up. [16] 3.2.14 LLDPE - **View**: Maintenance slightly increases, and LLDPE is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The macro - situation, oil price, and its own fundamentals limit the upside space, and the short - term price fluctuates within a range. [28] 3.2.15 PP - **View**: Maintenance is stable, the propane CP price is reduced, and PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The reduction of the propane CP price drags down PP, and its own fundamentals have limited support. [29] 3.2.16 PL - **View**: The propane CP price is reduced again, and PL is weaker than PP in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The reduction of the propane CP price and weak downstream demand lead to a decline in PL prices. [30] 3.2.17 PVC - **View**: Market sentiment cools down, and PVC weakens. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and the PVC fundamentals are under pressure due to increased production, limited downstream demand, and anti - dumping pressure on exports. [31] 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the futures price is weak. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and the supply is high while the demand is inelastic, leading to inventory accumulation. [32]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core View of the Report There is no clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly lists a series of price, production, and profit - related data of various chemical products. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - The price of crude oil on October 30, 2025, was $572.63 per ton, up 0.26% from the previous value of $571.13 [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on October 29, 2025, was $766 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China on October 30, 2025, was $610 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price of methanol on October 30, 2025, was $2212.5 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The tax - included price of lignite in Inner Mongolia on October 30, 2025, was $290 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain product on October 30, 2025, was $4073 per ton, up 0.20% from the previous value of $4081 [1] - The closing price of the near - month contract on October 30, 2025, was $390 per ton, a significant change compared to other values [1] - The intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China on October 30, 2025, was $4150 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts on October 30, 2025, was $70 per ton, compared to a previous value of $34 [1] - The comprehensive price of ethylene glycol on October 30, 2025, was $83 per ton, up $3 from the previous value [1] Production and Capacity Utilization - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol on October 30, 2025, was 66.57%, with no change from the previous value [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on October 30, 2025, was 61.16%, with no change from the previous value [1] - The capacity utilization rate of the PTA industry factory on October 30, 2025, was 89.28%, with no change from the previous value [1] - The capacity utilization rate of looms in the Zhejiang and Jiangsu PTA industries on October 30, 2025, was 72.28%, up 0.22% from the previous value of 72.06 [1] Profit Data - The after - tax gross profit per ton of a certain product on October 30, 2025, was $1510.24, compared to a previous value of $1529.09 [1] Index Data - The price index of polyester on October 30, 2025, was $8450 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber on October 30, 2025, was $6360 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips on October 30, 2025, was $5720 per ton, up 0.3% from the previous value of $5740 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The industry meeting had no substantial conclusions. The PTA futures fluctuated downward in the afternoon, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere weakened. The spot basis rose and then fell. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost - end in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward on Thursday, and the market transaction was acceptable. The port inventory is expected to increase significantly this week, and the spot flow will be supplemented. It is expected that the short - term price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted within a range, with continuous upward pressure [7]. - Overall: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and the upper resistance level should be noted when the market rebounds [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: - Fundamental: After the industry meeting, the market situation changed as described above. The 11th - middle of November was traded at a discount of 69 - 72 to the 01 contract, and the 12th - middle of December was traded at a discount of 50 to the 01 contract. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 71 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4530, and the 01 contract basis is - 40, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period, showing a bullish situation [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish situation [6]. - Main Position: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish tendency [5]. - Expectation: Driven by the downstream polyester sales this week, the PTA spot basis strengthened slightly, and the market transaction center gradually shifted to November [5]. - MEG: - Fundamental: The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward on Thursday. The domestic supply will be abundant in the later period. After the delivery cycle ends, the spot buying in the trading link will also weaken [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4145, and the 01 contract basis is 113, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 49.8 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons compared with the previous period, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position decreased, showing a bearish tendency [7]. - Expectation: The port inventory is expected to increase significantly this week, and the short - term price center will be adjusted within a range [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, output, supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [12]. - Price - related Data: It includes the spot price, production profit, production capacity utilization rate, inventory, basis, and price difference data of bottle chips, PTA, MEG, and other products from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the price trends and market conditions of different products [15][18][22]. - Inventory Analysis Data: It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the inventory levels and trends of different products [41]. - Production Start - up Data: It includes the production start - up data of the upstream and downstream of polyester from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the production activities and market supply - demand relationships of different links in the polyester industry chain [52][56]. - Profit Data: It includes the profit data of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, and other products from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profitability and market competitiveness of different products [61][62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - EB2512 fluctuated weakly, closing at 6,421 yuan/ton. The production and capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased month - on - month due to the impact of plant shutdowns. The downstream EPS and UPR operating rates increased slightly, while the operating rates of PS, ABS, and styrene - butadiene rubber decreased to varying degrees. The visible inventory decreased slowly at a high level. The non - integrated cost decreased slightly due to weak raw material prices, and the profit recovery was not significant. The market expects a slight increase in OPEC+ production in December, and combined with weak crude oil demand, international oil prices have been under pressure recently. In the short term, EB2512 is expected to weaken with oil prices, and attention should be paid to the support of the lower Bollinger Band around 6,264 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6,421 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92. The trading volume was 11,843 lots, and the open interest was 430,156 lots, an increase of 17,279. The net long position of the top 20 holders was 2,497 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 6,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 91. The spot price of styrene was 6,752 yuan/ton, an increase of 9,346. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 801.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9, and the CFR China intermediate price was 811.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 50 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of styrene in the Northeast, South China, North China, and East China regions were 6,225 yuan/ton (change not provided), 6,580 yuan/ton (an increase of 15), 6,360 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 6,460 yuan/ton (an increase of 5) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf were 766 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 756 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 15), 692.5 US dollars/ton (an increase of 0.5), and 457 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 6) respectively. The spot prices of pure benzene in the US Gulf (FOB), Taiwan (CIF), Rotterdam (FOB), and the market prices in the South China, East China, and North China markets were 243 US cents/gallon (a decrease of 1), 679.1 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 680 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 1), 5,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5,405 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30), and 5,130 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40) respectively [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate was 69.25%, a decrease of 2.63%. The national inventory was 2,847 tons, the total inventory in the East China main port was 19.3 tons, a decrease of 0.95, and the trade inventory in the East China main port was 12.1 tons, a decrease of 0.15 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 61.98% (a decrease of 0.55), 72.8% (a decrease of 0.3), 53.8% (unchanged), 34% (unchanged), and 70.57% (an increase of 0.29) respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 323,400 tons, a decrease of 1.1% from the previous period, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 66.72%, a decrease of 2.53% month - on - month. From October 17th to 23rd, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of Chinese styrene was 272,000 tons, a decrease of 0.44% from the previous week. As of October 23rd, the inventory of Chinese styrene plants was 196,300 tons, an increase of 1.47% from the previous week. As of October 27th, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 193,000 tons, a decrease of 4.69% from the previous week, and the inventory in South China ports was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 6.06% from the previous week. As of October 22nd, the non - integrated cost of styrene was 6,990.04 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit was - 480 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but Powell said a December rate cut is not guaranteed, strengthening the US dollar index and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders has boosted market optimism. Policy stimulus expectations have increased, enhancing short - term macro - upward drivers. Focus on China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are short - term oscillating and strengthening; bonds are short - term oscillating; commodities have different trends for different sectors [3]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stocks**: Driven by sectors such as energy metals, industrial metals, and photovoltaic equipment, the domestic stock market rose significantly. With accelerated economic growth, the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting, and enhanced policy stimulus expectations, short - term macro - upward drivers have increased. Short - term cautious buying is recommended [4]. - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the US dollar strengthened, and precious metals weakened. In the short term, they are oscillating and correcting, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term long - position reduction and mid - to - long - term buying on dips are advised [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to rebound. Demand improved marginally, inventories decreased, and supply is expected to decline due to compressed profits and environmental restrictions. The market is mainly driven by macro factors, and prices are likely to be oscillating and strengthening [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices continued to be strong due to improved macro expectations and a significant drop in arrivals. Port inventories decreased. Steel mill profits are compressed, and iron - water production may decline further. Supply has some changes, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices rebounded slightly. Demand decreased due to a slight decline in steel production. Supply of silicon manganese increased slightly. Prices are expected to oscillate in the range [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillated. Supply increased in the short term, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. Demand increased slightly. With supply pressure, a bearish view is taken [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract oscillated. Supply was stable, demand in the peak season was weak, and inventory was relatively high. Supported by anti - involution policies, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Driven by supply concerns, copper prices reached a record high. High US inventories may limit future imports. A mine shutdown in Indonesia tightened the global supply, but beware of the restart of a Panama mine. Domestic de - stocking was less than expected, and prices are expected to remain strong [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum rose significantly, with technical support at 21100. Fundamentals are not good, but a decline in London inventories may support prices in the short term [11]. - **Tin**: After the end of a large - scale smelter's maintenance in Yunnan, the smelting start - up rate increased significantly. However, the ore supply is tight, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract rose. Supply and demand both increased, and the price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term, but beware of hedging pressure [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract rose. Demand was stable, and with cost support, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract rose. Supply is high, demand is low, and it is waiting for policy support and attention to spot price support [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market evaluated the impact of a large drop in US inventories and sanctions on Russian oil producers. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders raised expectations for trade agreements, and oil prices rebounded slightly [15]. - **Asphalt**: Prices rebounded with oil prices and then stabilized. With the approaching off - season, inventory reduction will slow down. Future price trends depend on the rebound space of oil prices [15]. - **PX**: As oil prices rose, PX followed suit. It is in a tight supply situation but has high short - selling risks [16]. - **PTA**: The market is waiting for the results of a symposium. Short - term capital is leaving, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down. It will remain oscillating in the short term [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventories decreased slightly, and prices rose slightly with oil prices. It will continue to oscillate in the near term [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices rebounded slightly but are expected to remain weakly oscillating. Future upward space depends on terminal orders [17]. - **Methanol**: Some inland markets are weak, and port prices are oscillating at a low level. Supply pressure will increase, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - **PP**: Market quotations oscillated. Supply is sufficient, but demand has improved marginally. Prices may be repaired in the short term [19]. - **LLDPE**: Prices fluctuated slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may improve slightly. Prices may be repaired in the short term, but the supply - surplus situation remains [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic market showed a slight downward trend. Supply is becoming more abundant, and demand is stable. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybean prices fell slightly. US soybean exports have decreased significantly this year. The market is optimistic about trade negotiations, but there are still system risks [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and soybean meal supply is sufficient. If Sino - US agricultural trade relations improve, soybean meal inventory accumulation may limit upward price space [21]. - **Palm Oil**: In Malaysia, inventory accumulation pressure has increased since October, and the implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan is uncertain. After continuous price drops, it has entered a technically oversold stage [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil supply is abundant, and it is in the consumption peak season. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, but there are factors suppressing prices [23]. - **Corn**: North - port corn prices continued to decline. The market price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may slow down the decline [23]. - **Hogs**: The average price of live hogs decreased slightly. Short - term prices have stabilized, but there is still a large supply - demand mismatch pressure in November [23].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of monthly average price futures for LLDPE, PVC, and PP on October 28 marks a significant development in China's chemical industry, providing new risk management tools for enterprises and enhancing market participation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Participation and Performance - The first day of trading for the three chemical products saw a total of 8,254 contracts traded, amounting to 230 million yuan, with a position of 2,468 contracts, indicating strong participation from industry players [1]. - The closing prices for the near-month contracts L2602F, V2602F, and PP2602F showed slight increases of 0.04%, 0.86%, and 0.10% respectively compared to the listing benchmark price [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights and Applications - Major companies such as Jingbo Petrochemical, Zhongtai International Trade, and Mingri Holdings actively participated in the first day of trading, utilizing the new futures for price hedging and risk management [2][3]. - Jingbo Petrochemical plans to use the monthly average settlement price for spot trading, which aligns with their monthly sales and average settlement model, helping to mitigate daily price fluctuations [2]. - Zhongtai International Trade employed the V2602F contract for long-term order hedging, enhancing stability in the PVC industry [3]. Group 3: Future Developments and Recommendations - The Dalian Commodity Exchange aims to optimize rules and improve market quality, making it easier for industry clients to participate and enhancing the pricing influence of Chinese chemical products [4]. - Market experts suggest that companies familiarize themselves with this innovative product, as it can significantly aid in business operations, especially in long-cycle average trading scenarios [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Macroeconomics and Financial Futures - The GDP growth rate in Q3 declined as expected, but the pressure to achieve the annual target is controllable. The GDP deflator shows a recovery trend, and its sustainability is worth noting. Fiscal policies are clearly发力 to support the economy, and the subsequent pace of domestic demand repair is crucial. The stock market reacted positively after the release of the communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and the stock index may perform according to historical patterns [2]. - Optimistic expectations for Sino-US trade negotiations have increased market risk appetite, which is beneficial for the RMB to appreciate against the US dollar. The central bank's guidance on the exchange rate is also a key factor. The key to the subsequent market trend lies in the Fed's interest rate meeting. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [4]. - The policy orientation of the speech at the opening ceremony of the Financial Street Forum Annual Conference on capital market reform is clear, but the implementation path focuses on gradualism, so it has limited impact on the A-share market in the short term. The stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly under the game between policy利好 expectations and the willingness of profitable funds to take profits [5]. Bond Market - The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading operations has a strong signal meaning, which consolidates the market bottom and is conducive to the improvement of expectations. The bond market is expected to have a callback in the short term, but there is upward momentum in the fourth quarter [6]. Shipping - The container shipping to Europe route futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and geopolitical factors provide support at the bottom. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread fluctuations between near and far contracts [10]. Commodities Precious Metals - Although in the medium and long term, central bank gold purchases and the growth of investment demand will continue to push up the price center of precious metals, they are currently in an adjustment stage. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips in the medium term, and continue to hold the bottom position of previous long positions cautiously [14]. Base Metals - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock consolidation. Speculators can enter the market to go long on dips near 86000±500. Downstream enterprises can adopt a combination strategy of "selling put options + buying futures on dips" [16]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong, while alumina is expected to be weak, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. Zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate strongly. Tin is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long. Lithium carbonate is expected to be supported by demand. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely. Lead is expected to fluctuate mainly, and it is recommended to sell both call and put options to earn option premiums [16][18][20][22][23][24][26][27] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium and long term. LPG is expected to fluctuate. PTA - PX is expected to decline slightly with oil prices. MEG is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - mood. Methanol's 01 contract pressure increases. PP and PE are expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be affected by macro - trends and oil prices. Fuel oil's cracking upside is limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil's upward drive is limited. Asphalt is waiting for short - selling opportunities. Urea is expected to face pressure after the rebound. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda's production and sales have improved [34][36][39][41][45][48][49][50][51][53] Building Materials and Paper - Soda ash is expected to be limited in upward space due to high - level supply and cost support. Glass is expected to continue to observe the sustainability of improved production and sales. Caustic soda is expected to be affected by short - term maintenance and long - term production pressure. Pulp and offset paper are expected to be affected by paper mill price increases and macro - mood. Logs are expected to have limited downward space in the short term [53][54][55][56][57] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics and Financial Futures - **Market Information**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal emphasizes key core technology research, the "AI +" action, and boosting consumption. The trade situation eases, and the gold ETF has the largest single - day reduction in six months. The "small non - farm" ADP releases weekly employment data, and Trump may influence the Fed's decision - making. The US and Japan and South Korea have relevant cooperation agreements [1][3][5] - **Market Review**: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose, and the stock index opened lower and fluctuated. The trading volume of the two markets decreased, and the futures index had different volume and price performances [3][5] Bond Market - **Market Review**: Bond futures opened higher and closed up, and the end - of - month liquidity was tight [6] - **Core Logic**: The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading operations led to a sharp decline in spot bond yields, and bond futures made up for the increase. The market is expected to have a callback in the short term but upward momentum in the fourth quarter [6] Shipping - **Market Review**: The container shipping to Europe route futures traded lightly and fluctuated narrowly, and investors focused on geopolitical situations [7] - **Information Sorting**: There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduced expectation of Red Sea resumption and the resilience of the Chinese economy. Negative factors include uncertain macro - demand and the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate [8][9] Commodities Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Precious metal prices continued to adjust, showing a V - shaped trend during the day [12] - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings**: The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the holdings of gold and silver ETFs and inventories have changed [13] - **This Week's Focus**: Pay attention to US economic data and central bank interest rate meetings [14] Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: Copper prices in different markets had different performances, and the basis and cross - border ratio changed [15] - **Industry Information**: Copper inventories in different exchanges changed, and the copper consumption in the real estate industry declined [15][16] - **Core Logic**: Spot prices and premiums weakened, and the trading volume was light. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock [16] - **Aluminum and Its Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: Aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy prices had different changes [17] - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong due to positive macro - factors and overseas supply disturbances. Alumina is expected to be weak due to over - supply, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to follow aluminum prices [17][18][19] - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fluctuated at a high level [19] - **Core Logic**: The external market is supported by low inventories, and the domestic market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock [20] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: Nickel and stainless steel prices declined [20] - **Market Analysis**: They were affected by the overall weakness of the metal market, and the cost support of nickel iron loosened. Stainless steel may face production cuts [20][21][22] - **Tin** - **Market Review**: Tin prices fluctuated strongly [22] - **Core Logic**: The supply is weaker than demand, and tin prices are expected to be bullish [22] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: Lithium carbonate futures prices declined slightly, and the trading volume and open interest increased [23] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain was active, and prices rose [23] - **Core Logic**: The demand is good, and the price is expected to be supported [23][24] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined slightly, and the trading volume and open interest changed [24][25] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the industrial silicon industry chain was average, and the photovoltaic industry was stable [25][26] - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly, and polysilicon's fundamentals are weak [24][26] - **Lead** - **Market Review**: Lead prices fluctuated and declined [26] - **Industry Performance**: Lead battery enterprises plan to cut production [27] - **Core Logic**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [27] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Crude oil prices declined significantly [33] - **Market Dynamics**: API data shows changes in US oil inventories, and there are statements from relevant companies and countries [33] - **Core Logic**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium and long term [34] - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG prices fluctuated [34] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price and inventory of LPG changed [34] - **Core Logic**: LPG is expected to fluctuate in the short term [36] - **PTA - PX** - **Fundamental Situation**: PX and PTA's supply, inventory, and efficiency have changed, and the polyester demand is stable [37][38] - **Core Logic**: PTA is expected to decline slightly with oil prices, and the processing fee needs to be repaired [37][38][39] - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Inventory and Devices**: MEG's inventory and device operation status changed [39] - **Fundamental Situation**: MEG's supply, demand, and efficiency have changed, and the polyester demand is stable [39][40] - **Core Logic**: MEG is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - mood, and the downward space is limited [40][41] - **Methanol** - **Market Dynamics**: Methanol 01 contract price and basis changed [41] - **Inventory**: Methanol port inventory changed [41] - **Core Logic**: Methanol's 01 contract pressure increases [41][42][43] - **PP** - **Market Dynamics**: PP prices declined [43] - **Fundamental Situation**: PP's supply, demand, and inventory have changed, and it is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [44][45] - **Core Logic**: PP is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern [44][45] - **PE** - **Market Dynamics**: PE prices declined [46] - **Fundamental Situation**: PE's supply, demand, and inventory have changed, and it is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [47][48] - **Core Logic**: PE is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern [47][48] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Pure benzene and styrene prices declined [48] - **Inventory Situation**: Pure benzene and styrene port and factory inventories changed [48] - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene is expected to be weak, and styrene's upward drive is limited [49] - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices closed at a certain level [49] - **Industry Performance**: Fuel oil's supply, demand, and inventory have changed [49] - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking upside is limited [49] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices closed at a certain level [50] - **Industry Performance**: Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply, demand, and inventory have changed [50] - **Core Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil's upward drive is limited [50] - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices closed at a certain level [50] - **Fundamental Situation**: Asphalt's supply, demand, and inventory have changed [50][51] - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is waiting for short - selling opportunities [51] - **Urea** - **Market Dynamics**: Urea prices closed at a certain level [51] - **Spot Feedback**: Urea's spot price and inventory changed [51] - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to face pressure after the rebound [52][53] Building Materials and Paper - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Dynamics**: Soda ash price declined slightly [53] - **Fundamental Information**: Soda ash inventory changed [53] - **Core Logic**: Soda ash is expected to be limited in upward space [53] - **Glass** - **Market Dynamics**: Glass price rose [54] - **Fundamental Information**: Glass inventory increased [54] - **Core Logic**: Observe the sustainability of glass's improved production and sales [54] - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Dynamics**: Caustic soda price declined slightly [55] - **Fundamental Information**: Caustic soda inventory decreased [55] - **Core Logic**: Caustic soda is affected by short - term maintenance and long - term production pressure [55][56] - **Pulp and Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: Pulp and offset paper prices fluctuated [56] - **Spot Market**: Pulp and offset paper's spot price and inventory changed [56] - **Core Logic**: Pulp and offset paper are affected by paper mill price increases and macro - mood [56] - **Logs** - **Market**: Log prices and inventory changed [57] - **Core Contradiction**: Logs are undervalued, and there is a possibility of price repair [57] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider short - term short - selling and long - term short - selling strategies [57][58] - **Propylene** - **Market Dynamics**: Propylene prices declined [58] - **Core Logic**: Propylene is expected to fluctuate [58]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on October 29, 2025, compared to October 28, 2025, including chemicals, agricultural products, and more. It also covers macro - economic news and provides trading strategies for different commodities and financial products based on their fundamentals and market trends [4]. - Macroeconomic news shows positive developments in China - ASEAN cooperation, potential progress in Sino - EU trade talks, and China's stance on financial opening - up and economic policies. The performance of the A - share market and international stock markets is also analyzed [7][8][20][21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemicals**: On October 29, 2025, among chemicals, glass had the highest increase rate of 1.348% (from 1,113.00 to 1,128.00), while crude oil had the largest decline rate of - 0.994% (from 462.70 to 458.10) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, soybean meal had the highest increase rate of 0.538% (from 2,975.00 to 2,991.00), and palm oil had the largest decline rate of - 1.496% (from 8,958.00 to 8,824.00) [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths, and China hopes for dialogue to solve trade differences [7]. - China is committed to financial opening - up, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - The revised Network Security Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, and the Environmental Protection Tax Law will include volatile organic compounds in the tax scope [8]. - The number of overseas travelers for tax - free shopping and the tax - free amount in China have increased significantly this year [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5th to 10th, with an expanded scale [8]. - China's soybean area and output are expected to remain high, and the number of breeding sows has decreased [8]. - China's wholesale and retail industries have shown growth in the first three quarters [8]. - The 2025 Hurun Rich List was announced, with Zhong Shanshan becoming the richest man in China [9]. 3.3 Commodity Trading Strategies - **Agricultural Products** - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 7700 - 7900, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Sugar**: Consider selling call options at high prices, with a support level at 5450 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn**: Observe the support in the 2100 - 2120 range [14]. - **Pigs**: The near - term futures are expected to be strong, and the long - term futures will remain weak [14]. - **Eggs**: Short - sell on the futures and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [16]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see, and consider going long if it breaks through 13600 yuan/ton [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Urea**: The UR2601 contract is expected to operate in the 1580 - 1670 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 2601 contract is under pressure [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to remain strong, with coking coal facing pressure around 1300 and coke around 1800 [16]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Prices are expected to remain high, but beware of macro - risks [17]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract is operating at a low level [17]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with rebar facing pressure around 3200 and hot - rolled coils around 3400 [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: They will maintain a wide - range fluctuating follow - up trend, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Adopt a bullish strategy, with a support level at 80000 and a pressure level at 84000 [19]. - **Options and Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Trend investors can focus on inter - variety spread arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the HO volatility decline [19]. - **Stock Index**: Although the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, there is still a need for consolidation. Pay attention to the performance of the third - quarter reports of listed companies [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures prices are under pressure due to high port inventory levels, with the main contract trading at 2243 yuan/ton, down 1.32% [1] Supply and Demand - Domestic methanol operating rates and weekly production have declined, but the decrease is limited; meanwhile, external import pressures are increasing, maintaining high supply pressure [1] - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, poor olefin margins exacerbate supply-demand conflicts [1] Inventory Levels - As of October 22, domestic methanol port inventory totaled 1.5122 million tons, up 1.4% from the previous week, indicating relatively high levels [1] - Factory inventories remain stable at low levels, with weak domestic demand; the overall inventory accumulation pattern is unchanged for October, although accumulation pressure has eased [1] Market Outlook - Short-term demand is supported by stable low factory inventories and high MTO operating rates; however, domestic methanol supply remains ample, and supply is expected to continue increasing [1] - A significant decline in MTO industry operating rates is anticipated in November, with weak demand and high port methanol inventory levels leading to continued pressure on methanol prices [1] - Attention is drawn to the potential impact of the Iranian sanctions ship incident [1]