1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 2025 年 6 月 16 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： | | 日 水 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | . | C ST | | 螺纹、热卷: | | C ST | | 铁矿石: | | ( | | | 焦煤焦炭: | | | 铁合金: | | ا ے | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | .. | | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | | C | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | .. | | | 对二甲苯 PX: | ... 11 | | | PTA: | .. | | | 乙二醇: | .. | | | 短纤: | .. | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂· | ...

财新观察｜更多运用市场力量 加快科技创新 成果转化 2025年5月25日，上海，位于南京东路步行街上的华为全球旗舰店。图：IC photo 近日，国务院以"深化科技成果转化机制改革，推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展"为 主题，进行第十四次专题学习。李强总理在主持学习时强调，科技成果转化需要良好环境作 支撑，要坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合，完善支持政策和市场服务，形成高效协同、富有 活力的成果转化体系。他指出，要加大资金支持，进一步拓宽思路，更多运用市场力量，吸 引社会资本加大投入，鼓励金融机构创新金融产品和服务方式，发展多层次资本市场，提供 多元化融资渠道。科技创新成果转化离不开市场力量，离不开一个健康发展、充满生机活力 的资本市场。 科技成果转化并非新课题。早在1996年，全国人大常委会就通过了《促进科技成果转 化法》。对于如何促进科技成果转化，各级政府、各高校和广大企业一直在探索。目前，中 国的学术论文发表数量和国际专利申请数量，均位居世界第一。截至2023年底，全国科研 院校的有效发明专利数达到102.3万件。科技部科技评估中心2024年9月发布的报告显示， 高校院所以转让、许可、作价投资和技术开发、咨询 ...

Group 1 - The overall manufacturing industrial production index recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in Q1 2025, following a 1.0% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The producer price index (PPI) rose by 4.8% in Q1 2025 compared to the same quarter last year, after a 4.1% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The industrial production index for wastewater treatment, waste management, and pollution prevention activities increased by 1.8% in Q1 2025, contrasting with a 0.7% decline in Q4 2024 [1] Group 2 - Key industries with production volume increases in Q1 2025 include paper products, printing, and recorded media copying (+2.9%), metals, computers, electronics, and optical products, machinery and equipment (+2.4%), and textiles and garments (+0.8%) [2] - The food, beverage, and tobacco products industry experienced a decline of 0.3% in production volume [2] Group 3 - The seasonally adjusted overall manufacturing industrial production index decreased by 0.5% in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024 [3] - The PPI for metals, computers, electronics, and optical products, machinery and equipment rose by 9.7% in Q1 2025 compared to the same quarter last year [3] - The textile products and garments industry saw a decline in PPI of 0.5% [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global market shows a differentiated pattern, with the Fed's rate - cut expectations constrained by inflation resilience and the ECB hinting at the end of the easing cycle. The equity market is supported by loose funds, but external disturbances and volume - energy sustainability should be watched [3]. - Crude oil may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but its upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts on supply [4]. - Gold is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, and investors should pay attention to US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [5][6]. - Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation, and US inflation data will affect its short - term direction [7]. - Most chemical products are expected to have a weak or bearish short - term trend, with supply - demand contradictions and inventory changes being important influencing factors [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. - Rubber may have a weak rebound after the short - term negative factors are realized, but it is still affected by the oversupply situation [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price is in an oscillation range, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment should be watched [19]. - Agricultural products show different trends. Corn may oscillate in the short - term, peanuts may decline slightly but have limited downside, cotton may be strong in the short - term, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply - demand and seasonal factors [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. - Metal prices have different trends. Copper may touch the bubble price line, aluminum may oscillate in a range, alumina shows a weak adjustment, and other metals are also affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and global economic situation [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Black metal products' prices also vary. Stainless steel may oscillate at a low level, and steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil can be considered for light - position long positions at low prices, while iron ore and coal may oscillate in the short - term [41][42][43][44][45][46] Summary by Industry Macro - Index - Market analysis: Global markets are differentiated. The Fed's rate - cut expectations are constrained, and the ECB hints at the end of the easing cycle. The central bank maintains a "broad credit, stable currency" policy. The equity market is supported by loose funds, with capital flowing to non - banking finance and technology sectors. Index futures show short - covering and a decline in the PCR indicator [3]. - Reference view: Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's policy implementation. Short - term holding along the 5 - day moving average is advisable. Be wary of the risk of insufficient volume energy [3]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The second - round Sino - US negotiations reach a "framework agreement in principle," and the oil price may oscillate strongly. Focus on the key level of $65 per barrel for WTI [4]. - Market analysis: OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts, and US policies cause concerns about demand. Although US crude oil inventories decline, refined product inventories increase. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase supply uncertainty, and OPEC+ plans to increase production [4]. - Reference view: Watch whether WTI can break through $65 per barrel in the short - term. In the long - term, the upside is limited without major geopolitical impacts [4]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: US economic resilience pressures short - term gold prices, but multiple factors support it in the long - term. Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks limit the downside space, and the Fed's policy also affects the price [5]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold futures warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. The spot price has a discount compared to the futures price [6]. - Operation suggestion: Gold is expected to oscillate. Investors should watch US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6]. Silver - Market price: On June 11, the international spot silver price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts increased significantly. Global economic growth expectations are lowered, and trade tensions ease, reducing the safe - haven demand for silver [7]. - Operation suggestion: Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to US inflation data [7]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect PTA costs. PTA device maintenance and restart coexist, with an overall increase in the operating rate and a decrease in inventory days. Polyester and textile loads decline, and weak orders may intensify supply - demand contradictions [8]. - Reference view: It may oscillate bearishly in the short - term [8]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price is flat, and the basis is positive [9]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in coal - based production. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventories in the East China main port increase, and future arrivals may limit the upside [9]. - Reference view: The price may be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. PVC - Spot information: The East China 5 - type PVC spot price increased, and the ethylene - calcium price difference decreased [10][11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, but downstream demand is still weak. Inventories decreased. The futures price oscillated at a low level without significant fundamental improvement [10][11]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [11]. PP - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions fluctuate slightly [12]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, and production volume rose. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream orders decreased. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price oscillated at a low level [12]. - Reference view: Demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Plastic - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions have different changes [14]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate changed little. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price may oscillate [14]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price may oscillate in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The heavy - soda prices in different regions are stable [15]. - Market analysis: The overall operating rate and production volume increased. Factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories decreased. Demand is average, and the market lacks new drivers [15]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: The 5mm glass prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The operating rate and production volume decreased slightly. Inventories increased, and demand is weak. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [17]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade negotiations and typhoons affect the price. The supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season. Downstream tire operating rates decline, and trade - war concerns suppress demand, but there is a rebound expectation after the negative factors are realized [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream operating rates. It may start a weak rebound after short - term negative factors are realized [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, and prices in other regions vary [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price increased slightly. Port inventories increased. Supply pressure is high, and demand from MTO devices recovers, while traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [19]. - Reference view: The futures price is in an oscillation range. Watch Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Good weather in US corn - growing areas and Sino - US trade relations affect imports. The domestic market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with tight supply in the short - term. Wheat substitution and weather are key factors. Downstream demand is weak [20][21]. - Reference view: The corn futures price may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short - term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. The market is in the inventory - consumption period, with low imports and low inventory levels. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventories may support the price [22]. - Reference view: The peanut price may decline slightly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Band - trading is advisable [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The Chinese cotton spot price index and Xinjiang cotton arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations ease, boosting the market. In the long - term, cotton supply is expected to be abundant. In the short - term, low imports and low commercial inventories support the price, but downstream demand is weak [23]. - Reference view: The cotton price may be strong in the short - term. Watch whether it can fill the previous gap [23]. Pig - Spot market: The average price of live pigs in major production and sales areas increased slightly [24]. - Market analysis: Farmers resist low - price sales, reducing supply. Demand is weak due to warm weather, and terminal consumption lacks improvement [24]. - Reference view: The live - pig futures price may oscillate weakly. Watch the slaughter situation [24]. Egg - Spot market: The national average egg price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing chickens decreases, and old - hen culling increases, supporting the price. Demand may increase in the tourism and catering industries during the summer vacation, but the plum - rain season suppresses consumption [25]. - Reference view: The egg futures price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [25]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The rapeseed meal price in Fangchenggang increased [27]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is weak due to a small price difference with soybean meal and the off - season. Watch Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [27]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of rapeseed meal futures at the upper pressure level [27]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The rapeseed oil price in Fangchenggang is stable [28]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short - to - medium - term [28]. - Reference view: The rapeseed oil futures price may oscillate near the platform [28]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans are provided [29]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market confidence. Good weather in US soybean - growing areas and the peak season of Brazilian soybean exports affect the price [29]. - Reference view: The soybean No. 2 futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [29]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Soybean meal prices in different regions are provided [30]. - Market analysis: Pay attention to Sino - US trade talks. Internationally, trade talks boost confidence, and tariffs and weather are key factors. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and downstream demand is weak, but inventory accumulation is slow [30]. - Reference view: The soybean meal futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [30]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Soybean oil prices in different regions are provided [31]. - Market analysis: Internationally, supply pressure and falling oil prices put pressure on soybean oil. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and demand is in the off - season, with inventory accumulation pressure increasing [31]. - Reference view: The soybean oil futures price may oscillate in the short - term [31] Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import copper ore index also rose [32]. - Market analysis: US economic data reduces recession concerns and rate - cut expectations. Global tariffs and domestic policies affect the market. Raw material issues and inventory changes make the market more complex [33]. - Reference view: The copper price may touch the bubble price line. Consider removing defenses based on signals [33]. Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [34]. - Market analysis: The cost of alumina increases, supporting the theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum. Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is in the off - season. Inventories decline, and the spot market is at a premium, but demand limits the upside [34]. - Reference view: The aluminum futures price may oscillate in a range [34]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average alumina price decreased slightly, and prices in different regions vary [35]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market sentiment. Supply slightly decreases as smelters' profits improve. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories start to accumulate. The price is under pressure [35]. - Reference view: The alumina futures price shows a weak adjustment trend [35]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy are stable [36]. - Market analysis: The high price of scrap aluminum supports the cost. Supply is in surplus as the industry expands. Demand from new - energy vehicles and electronics is resilient but limited by tariffs and the global economy. Inventories are high and may continue to accumulate [36]. - Reference view: The cast aluminum alloy futures price may be strong [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are stable [38]. - Market analysis: The upstream raw - material market shows signs of stabilization, supply is stable but the structure is adjusting, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at the bottom [38]. - Reference view: Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can trade in the range [38]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon are stable [39]. - Market analysis: Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak as downstream industries cut production or have low operating rates. Inventories are digested slowly, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it may rebound [39]. - Reference view: The industrial silicon futures price may oscillate strongly at the bottom [39]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [40]. - Market analysis: Supply shows no obvious contraction, and demand is weak overall, with some differentiation. Exports decline. The market's supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated [40]. - Reference view: The polysilicon futures price may oscillate. Watch the previous low - point support [40] Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil increased [41]. - Market analysis: Technically, it may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. Fundamentally, the raw - material market is quiet, and cost supports the price, but weak demand restricts the upside [41]. - Reference view: It may oscillate widely at a low level. Wait and see for now [41]. Rebar - Spot information: The price of rebar in Shanghai is stable [42]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, and demand is in the off - season, but inventories are low and the valuation is low [42][43]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [43]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is stable [44]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, apparent demand recovers, and inventories are low with a low valuation [44]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [44]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The iron ore price index and futures price are provided [45]. - Market analysis: Supply pressure eases as global shipments increase and domestic production rises slightly. Demand weakens as steel - mill operating rates decline, but current iron - water production is still high. Port inventories increase, and demand in the off - season is expected to be weak. Sino - US tariff easing boosts sentiment, but steel - billet exports are uncertain. Non - mainstream ore production cuts support the price, but reduced steel - mill profits may suppress demand [45]. - Reference view: The iron ore futures price may oscillate in the short - term. Watch port inventory

Macro and Strategy Research - In May 2025, China's exports in USD terms grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in the previous month, while imports fell by 3.4%, compared to a decline of 0.2% previously. The trade surplus reached USD 103.22 billion, up from USD 96.18 billion [4][5] - The slowdown in export growth is attributed to high base effects and global economic downturn concerns, with the global manufacturing PMI remaining below 50 for three consecutive months. Exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5%, influenced by new tariffs and cautious sentiment among traders [4][5] - Import demand showed weakness, with agricultural imports rising by 17.9% year-on-year, while other major commodities experienced negative growth, indicating a need for policy support to boost domestic demand [5] Fixed Income Research - For the period from June 2 to June 8, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds increased, while transaction amounts decreased. The net financing amount for credit bonds rose, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes seeing increases, while company bonds and short-term financing bonds saw reductions [6][8] - The overall yield on medium and short-term notes and corporate bonds declined, while city investment bonds showed mixed results. The credit spread for medium and short-term notes widened, indicating a complex market environment [8] - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for yields is downward, and investors should focus on timing their investments and monitoring interest rate trends [8] Industry Research - In the steel sector, demand is expected to decline as the off-season deepens, leading to a potential accumulation of steel inventory. The short-term outlook remains weak for steel prices [10][11] - For copper, tight supply at the mine level supports prices, but the lack of demand during the off-season may lead to volatility, particularly influenced by US-China trade negotiations [10][11] - The aluminum market faces uncertainty due to macroeconomic factors, while low domestic inventory provides some price support. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions, US interest rate expectations, and geopolitical factors, with a focus on macroeconomic data and trade developments [10][11] - The lithium market is experiencing oversupply, leading to price weakness, while the rare earth sector is positioned for long-term growth due to policy support and emerging demand from robotics and renewable energy [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy, or IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter on dips. The silver price will continue to be strong. Most metal prices will show different trends of shock, and some agricultural product prices will also fluctuate. [4][6][7] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.07%, etc. The total turnover of the two markets was 1286.4 billion yuan, an increase of 134.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CPI in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. [2] - The financing amount decreased by 3.116 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate rose 3.30bp to 1.411%. The 3 - year enterprise bond AA - level interest rate decreased 1.46bp to 2.9709%. The 10 - year treasury bond rate decreased 0.89bp to 1.6543%. The US 10 - year interest rate rose 11bp to 4.51%. [3] - It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended. [4] Treasury Bond - On Monday, the TL main contract rose 0.35%, the T main contract rose 0.09%, etc. In May, the CPI decreased slightly, and the core CPI increased year - on - year. China's total import and export value in the first five months of 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year. [5] - The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 173.8 billion yuan. The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter on dips. [6] Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.18%, Shanghai silver rose 2.07%. COMEX gold fell 0.24%, COMEX silver rose 0.45%. The US economic data is weakening, and the Fed's further interest rate cut is necessary, which will drive the silver price to be strong. [7] - It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, and the silver price will be stronger. The reference operating range of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram. [8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - LME copper rose 1.01%, Shanghai copper closed at 79330 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 10000 tons, and the domestic social inventory was basically flat. China's copper imports in May decreased by 16.9% year - on - year. The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level. [10] Aluminum - LME aluminum rose 1.28%, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20060 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the aluminum price is expected to rise limitedly. [11] Zinc - Shanghai zinc index fell 2.22%. The zinc ore is in surplus, and the zinc price may decline further if there is no production control. [12] Lead - Shanghai lead index fell 0.07%. The downstream consumption of lead is weakening, and the lead price is expected to be weak. [13] Nickel - Shanghai nickel fell 0.27%, LME nickel fell 0.81%. The nickel ore supply is tight, and the nickel price is expected to be short - term bullish but long - term bearish. [14] Tin - Shanghai tin rose 0.05%. The supply of tin ore may decrease, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to oscillate. [15] Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium was flat, and the futures price rose 0.43%. The lithium salt production is high, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. [16] Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.34%. The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. [17] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fell 0.32%. The industry is facing high inventory and weak demand, and the price will be under pressure. [18] Black Building Materials Steel - The rebar price rose 0.201%, and the hot - rolled coil price rose 0.097%. The market is in the off - season, and the demand is weakening. [20][21] Iron Ore - The iron ore price fell 0.64%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The ore price is expected to oscillate. [22] Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price fell, and the soda ash price is expected to be weak. The supply and demand of both are in a state of change. [23][24] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon rose 0.25%, ferrosilicon rose 1.37%. Both are in a downward trend, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [25] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price rose 2.54%. The industry has over - capacity, and the price may fall further. [29] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil all rose. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [33] Methanol - The methanol price rose. The supply is high, and the price may fall further. It is recommended to go short on rallies. [34] Urea - The urea price fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [35] PVC - The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. [36][37] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply and demand are changing, and there is a risk of valuation adjustment. [38] PTA - The PTA price fell. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the price will continue to decline in inventory. [39] p - Xylene - The p - xylene price fell. The supply and demand will change, and the price will oscillate at the current valuation. [40][41] Polyethylene - The polyethylene price rose. The supply pressure will ease, and the price will oscillate. [42] Polypropylene - The polypropylene price rose. The supply will increase, and the price is expected to be bearish in June. [43] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The pig price rose slightly. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term and wait for short - selling opportunities in the far term. [45] Eggs - The egg price was mostly stable. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be short - term bearish. [46] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate. [47][48] Oils and Fats - The palm oil production and export are increasing. The oil price is expected to oscillate. [49][50][51] Sugar - The sugar price fell slightly. The international supply is increasing, and the domestic sugar price may weaken. [52][53] Cotton - The cotton price rose. The supply is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. [54]

Core Viewpoint - The main contradiction in the US economy for the second half of the year revolves around tariff data, with a short-term focus on the direction of inflation [2]. Tariff Status and Economic Effects - After the May 12 US-China agreement, global trade uncertainty has decreased but remains at historically high levels, with the average US import tariff rate around 16% and China's rate at 27%. The suspension periods for US tariffs on China will end on July 9 and August 12 [2]. - The sectors with the highest US import tariffs as of the end of May include clothing and metals, with slow progress in tariff negotiations with other economies [2]. - The economic effects of tariffs on inflation and growth are expected to manifest over time. A surge in US container bookings indicates a new round of "import grabbing," but this may be hindered by inventory accumulation and weakening domestic demand as tariff suspensions approach [2]. - Tariffs have already begun to exert upward pressure on US inflation, although the effect is not yet significant. A potential inflationary period may occur in Q3 and Q4 [2]. - Indicators such as manufacturing PMI, capital expenditure willingness, and real estate sales suggest weaker private investment, while consumer purchasing intentions have declined despite a temporary boost in household income [2]. - Employment data, including unemployment claims, show signs of deterioration, raising concerns about rising unemployment rates [2]. Dynamic Economic Impact - The impact of tariffs on the economy may shift from "stagflation" to "slowdown," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve. In the next 1-2 quarters, the market may grapple with issues of stagnation versus inflation and whether to expect a slowdown or recession [3]. - By Q4 of this year, if the rate of price increases slows while economic downturns persist, the main contradictions in economic fundamentals, asset classes, and policies may transition from "stagflation" to "slowdown," with the possibility of "recession panic" [3]. Global Trade Predictions - The United Nations has revised its predictions for global trade growth rates, with a forecast of 1.5% growth in trade volume for Q2 2025, driven primarily by industrial production data [4][5]. Sector-Specific Tariff Data - As of May 2025, the highest effective import tariff rates in the US are in the textile and clothing manufacturing sectors, reaching 52.8% and 52.6%, respectively. In contrast, sectors like oil, coal, and chemicals have significantly lower tariff rates [6]. Retail Price Trends - Since March, US retail prices have increased significantly, reflecting retailers' proactive price hikes following tariff impositions. However, prices for goods from Mexico have been declining since April, indicating expectations surrounding tariff negotiations [11][12]. - A survey by the Richmond Fed indicated that 72% of surveyed companies have taken action in response to tariffs, with a majority planning to raise prices [14][15]. Investment Implications - The impact of tariffs on US investment is expected to be more pronounced than on consumer spending, as the proportion of private investment reliant on imports is significantly higher (38%) compared to consumer spending (9%) [16].

3. 华储网发布关于2025年6月11日中央储备冻猪肉收储竞价交易有关事项的通知，其中本次收储挂牌竞 价交易1万吨。 4. 路透公布对USDA 6月供需报告中南美农作物产量的数据预测，分析师平均预计，巴西2024/2025年度 大豆产量为1.6927亿吨，预估区间介于1.6825-1.71亿吨，USDA此前在5月预估为1.69亿吨。阿根廷 2024/2025年度大豆产量为4904万吨，预估区间介于4800-5000万吨，USDA此前在5月预估为4900万吨。 5. 巴西农业咨询机构AgRural称，截至上周四，巴西中南部主产区的农民已经收割完成1.9%的2025年第 二季玉米作物，较前一周加快0.6个百分点，创下2021年以来同期最慢步伐。去年同期收割率为10%。 6. 美国农业部（USDA）周二凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至6月8日当周， 美国大豆优良率为 68%，市场预期为68%，前一周为67%，上年同期为72%。大豆种植率为90%，低于市场预期的91%，此 前—周为84%，去年同期为86%，五年均值为88%。大豆出苗率为75%，上一周为63%，上年同期为 68%，五年均值为72%。 7. 根据《上 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones remaining flat at 42,761.76 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.09% to 6,005.88 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.31% to 19,591.24 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Tesla up over 4%, Intel up over 2%, and Google and Amazon both rising over 1%. Apple and Netflix fell over 1%, while Meta experienced a slight decline [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly gained, with Kingsoft Cloud rising nearly 10%, iQIYI up over 4%, and Bilibili, Xpeng Motors, and Baidu all increasing over 3%. JD.com and NetEase rose over 2% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed slightly lower, with the German DAX down 0.54% to 24,174.32 points, the French CAC40 down 0.17% to 7,791.47 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.06% to 8,832.28 points [1] Commodity Prices - International oil prices strengthened, with the main U.S. oil contract rising by 1.24% to $65.38 per barrel and the Brent crude oil contract increasing by 0.96% to $67.11 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures flat at $3,346.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising by 2.12% to $36.91 per ounce [1] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.19% to 99.01, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 57.1 basis points against the dollar to 7.1828 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 4.15 basis points to 3.993%, the 3-year yield down 4.27 basis points to 3.980%, the 5-year yield down 4.39 basis points to 4.079%, the 10-year yield down 3.18 basis points to 4.474%, and the 30-year yield down 2.99 basis points to 4.939% [1] - European bond yields generally declined, with the UK 10-year yield down 1.2 basis points to 4.630%, the French 10-year yield down 0.5 basis points to 3.238%, the German 10-year yield down 0.9 basis points to 2.562%, the Italian 10-year yield down 1.3 basis points to 3.485%, and the Spanish 10-year yield down 0.7 basis points to 3.142% [1]

1. 铜注册仓单54600吨，注销仓单67800吨，减少10000吨。 2. 铝注册仓单322000吨，注销仓单40000吨，减少2000吨。 3. 镍注册仓单171828吨，注销仓单27264吨，减少1014吨。 4. 锌注册仓单74725吨，注销仓单60875吨，减少1000吨。 5. 铅注册仓单186275吨，注销仓单93700吨，增加48700吨。 6. 锡注册仓单1810吨，注销仓单630吨，增加25吨。 LME注册及注销仓单日报 金十期货6月9日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属注册及注销仓单如下： ...