2025 年 12 月 3 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 23 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.51%报 113.890 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.07%报 107.980 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.06%报 105.770 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.02%报 102.388 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 2 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1563 亿 ...

一场强劲的金属市场牛市行情，使得黄金、白银和铜在2025年都录得了可观的涨幅。 默克投资（ Merk Investments）的创始人兼总裁阿克塞尔·默克（Axel Merk）表示，在包括黄金和白银在内的贵金属领域，有投资者正在 寻求"多元化"，尤其是那些担心美元等货币购买力的投资者。以洲际交易所美元指数为代表的美元，今年以来已下跌超过8%。 但对金属交易员而言，今年的牛市至少有一个独特之处：道琼斯市场数据显示，这三种金属首次自1980年以来，在同一个日历年度内全 部创下了新的历史最高纪录。 上世纪80年代初，即这三种金属上次同时表现如此强劲时，地缘政治担忧和美元疲软被广泛认为是推动价格上涨的最重要因素。 尽管这些问题在本轮牛市行情中依然存在影响，但多位策略师和投资者告诉《市场观察》，当前与当时存在几个关键差异，这可能为市 场未来走向提供一些线索。 例如，日益增长的工业需求正成为推动白银和铜价越来越重要的因素。与此同时，各国央行强劲的黄金购买力也助推了黄金的价格。所 罗门全球（Solomon Global）的特约分析师尼克·考利（Nick Cawley）表示，所有这些基本面驱动因素在12月初依然稳固。 "持续 ...

德国工业联合会主席彼得·莱宾格表示，德国经济正处于联邦德国成立以来最严重的危机中。德国工业 持续走弱，亟须进行经济政策的根本性转变。 第四季度，超过三分之一的德国制造业企业面临订单不足的困境，大多数受访企业对当前的商业形势较 为悲观。基于行业评估和今年迄今为止的表现，德国工业联合会将该组织今年春季预测的德国制造业全 年产量下降0.5%下调至全年产量下降2%。 与德国制造业持续疲软不同，该报告认为欧盟的制造业衰退可能已经结束，制药、金属和电子等行业都 已大幅扩大了生产规模，预计今年欧盟制造业产量将增长1%。 新华财经法兰克福12月3日电（记者尹亮）德国工业联合会2日发布最新报告，预计今年德国制造业产量 将下降2%，这也将是德国制造业连续第四年下滑。 报告指出，虽然今年德国制造业开局良好，一季度制造业（不包括建筑业）产量环比增长0.9%，但自 二季度开始，制造业活动再次开始下降。下半年，德国制造业下滑趋势进一步加剧。今年前九个月，德 国制造业产量同比下降1.5%。 该报告还预测，2025年全球商品贸易将增长4%，新兴市场商品出口将增长5%，而发达经济体商品出口 将增长2%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant uncertainty and volatility in the commodity market for 2025, driven by global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, leading to a complex situation of "declining prices and increasing volatility" [2] - The market dynamics for energy, metals, and agricultural products are diverging, challenging traditional supply-demand logic and requiring companies to redefine resilience and competitiveness [2] - The upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures is highlighted as a potential game-changer for the industry and global markets [2] Event Details - The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) is hosting a commodity seminar in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, on December 4, 2025, focusing on the impact of the "14th Five-Year Plan" on the copper market and exclusive data releases related to gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [3][4] - The agenda includes presentations from various experts, including Kian Pang Tan on palm oil market outlook and Fu Xiaoyan on opportunities in the copper market [3][4] Expert Profiles - Kian Pang Tan, with over ten years of experience in agricultural research, specializes in palm oil and sugar market analysis, utilizing weather and satellite data for yield predictions [6] - Fu Xiaoyan, a senior director at Nanhua Futures Research Institute, has extensive experience in the futures industry and focuses on copper market research [7][8] - Chen Xiaoyan, the agricultural research director at Dadi Futures, has a background in information consulting and commodity trading [9] LSEG's Commodity Trading Solutions - LSEG offers comprehensive data and analytical solutions for energy, metals, and agricultural trading, enhancing decision-making processes for clients [14][16][19] - The company emphasizes the importance of structured data utilization, combining fundamental, supply-demand, and alternative data sources to provide competitive advantages in trading [13][22] - LSEG's platforms, such as Eikon and RDMS, allow clients to access leading trading insights across various commodity markets [17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, supply - demand and prices are the two major economic concerns. The manufacturing industry was in a state of passive de - stocking in November, and the relationship between production and demand improved slightly. However, the sustainability needs to be observed, and the endogenous demand in consumption and real estate needs to be strengthened. The price index has been repaired, with the front - end stronger than the back - end in structure [28]. - After the December Politburo meeting, the general policy direction for 2026 will be set, and the subsequent Central Economic Work Conference will make further deployments. Key areas of focus include monetary policy, fiscal policy, technological self - reliance, etc. The overall environment is favorable for the market [28]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1]. - In October 2025, the monthly increase in social financing scale was 816.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1412.0 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - From December 3, 2025, the speculative trading margin standard for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the hedging trading margin standard to 12%. The daily opening volume limit for non - futures company members or clients will be 500 lots [2]. - China's S&P manufacturing PMI in November was 49.9, down from 50.6 in the previous month [3]. - On December 1, 36 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 30 had negative basis [3]. - The Bank of Japan Governor signaled a possible interest rate hike [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Due to supply shortages and expectations of Fed rate cuts, silver prices soared to record highs. On Monday, spot silver reached over $58 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of over 100% [4]. - On December 1, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 94,400 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hydroxide rose to 82,500 yuan/ton [5]. - As of November 28, lead, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, while zinc inventory increased [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel, and Minerals - The China Iron and Steel Association emphasized accelerating key iron ore projects to enhance the industry's resource security capacity [8]. - Saudi Arabia launched a new round of mineral exploration tenders covering 13,000 square kilometers [8]. - Indonesia set the benchmark prices for different grades of coal for the first half of December [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Two shale gas industry standards will be implemented on March 28, 2026, to support shale gas development [10]. - On December 1, international oil prices rose due to geopolitical risks and supply - side factors [10]. - Saudi Aramco and Algerian National Oil Company raised LPG prices by 3% - 5% in December [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The domestic corn market has been rising strongly, with significant price increases in major ports [11]. - On December 1, the domestic live - hog futures contract 2601 was at a low level, and the spot market prices mostly fell [11]. - The USDA reported weekly export sales data for various agricultural products in the US [11][12]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 1, the central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan [14]. 3.3.2 Key News - French President Macron will visit China from December 3 - 5 [15]. - The CSRC is promoting the pilot of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to support the real estate market [16]. - As of the end of October, the balance of loans in the Yangtze River Delta region showed certain growth trends [17]. - In November, new energy vehicle sales rankings were released, with BYD leading [17]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market was mostly strong and volatile. Interest - rate bond yields mostly declined, and treasury - bond futures had mixed performance [21]. - Exchange - traded bonds, especially Vanke bonds, generally declined [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.10% [22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 69 basis points on December 1 [27]. - The US dollar index fell 0.03% in New York trading [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income commented on the November official manufacturing PMI, highlighting supply - demand and price concerns [28]. - Guosheng Macro's Xiong Yuan released a report on the possible policy directions after the December Politburo meeting [28]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On December 2, 155 bonds will be listed, 101 bonds will be issued, 54 bonds will be settled, and 135 bonds will pay principal and interest [29][30]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - shares rose unilaterally, with technology themes active. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65%, and the trading volume expanded to 1.89 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.67%, and the Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$2.148 billion [31]. - Shenzhen Stock Exchange will adjust samples of multiple indices on December 15 [31].

大宗商品巨头摩科瑞能源集团 (Mercuria Energy Group,Ltd) 知名金属业务主管 Kostas Bintas 近日重申了 其对铜价的看涨预期。他警告称，当前涌向美国的铜发货潮，可能导致世界其他地区的库存枯竭。 近几周，受未来关税政策不确定性的推动，交易商纷纷加大对美铜出口量，再次瞄准纽约商品交易所 (COMEX) 的高额铜溢价套利机会。 这些最新交易延续了今年铜市的动荡格局：年初，美国总统特朗普首次威胁加征关税后，美国铜价大幅 飙升，引发全球铜资源向美集中流动。尽管特朗普最终豁免了精炼铜的关税，但表示将在 2026 年下半 年重新评估这一决定。此后，一系列矿山生产中断导致供应收紧，推动全球铜价攀升至历史新高。 Bintas 表示，随着利润丰厚的美国套利交易重启，其他地区将面临铜供应短缺，铜价很快将进一步上 涨。 "这是一场超级行情，" 他在上海一场重要行业会议闭幕前夕接受采访时表示，"如果全球持续保持当前 运输态势，除美国外的其他地区将面临电解铜供应枯竭。" 据了解，Bintas 在大宗商品行业声名显赫 —— 他曾在托克集团 (Trafigura Group) 任职期间，将该公司 的铜交易 ...

证券日报网讯12月1日，中信金属（601061）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，根据中国证券登记结 算有限公司的数据，截至2025年9月19日，公司A股股东人数为68，191户。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of silver and copper have surged to historical highs due to tightening global supply and expectations of monetary policy easing, reflecting a strong optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market and highlighting specific supply-demand imbalances for silver and copper [1][3][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver prices reached an all-time high of over $57 per ounce on December 1, with a daily increase of approximately 1%, while silver futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit $57.81 [1][3]. - Concerns over supply shortages and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have driven the rapid price increase [3][10]. - China's silver inventory has fallen to a seven-year low, directly linked to record export volumes in October, with over 660 tons exported, marking a historical peak [8][9]. - The significant inventory depletion in China is attributed to cross-border tariff arbitrage activities, exacerbating global supply tightness [3][8]. Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The copper price also reached a record high of $11,210.5 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, with a 13% increase since late August, driven by similar supply constraints and arbitrage activities [4][7]. - The interconnected rise of silver and copper prices illustrates the core narrative of the current commodity market, emphasizing supply shortages as a key price driver [7][9]. - Analysts predict that the ongoing supply tightness could lead to further depletion of copper inventories in regions outside the U.S. [7][8]. Monetary Policy Impact - Expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve have provided solid support for the precious metals market, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [10][11]. - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced market expectations for a potential rate cut in December, further boosting confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [11].

Group 1 - The article highlights the strong performance of the consumer electronics sector in the A-share market, with stocks like Beilong Precision and Meg Smart reaching the daily limit [1] - It notes a collective high opening for metal sectors such as silver and copper, with companies like Xingye Silver Tin and Silver Nonferrous rising over 7% [1] - The AI application concept is mentioned as experiencing significant declines, with companies like Guotou Intelligent and Yidian Tianxia leading the drop [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of tracking capital migration and understanding the logic behind stock selection by institutions and retail investors [1] - It suggests that the "Longhu Niuxiong" report provides insights into market trends and helps investors align with market rhythms for wealth growth [1]

Report Overview - This is a weekly view summary from CITIC Futures Research Institute, covering various commodity sectors and providing short - term and medium - term outlooks for each commodity. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives individual ratings for each commodity, mainly including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", and "oscillating weakly". 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a state of shrinking volume, with potential unlocking and reduction pressure, and a policy window period. Capital is congested and waiting to be released, suggesting a long - term and short - term investment strategy with a dumbbell structure. - For different commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, policy, and macro - economic environment, showing different trends of oscillation, oscillation strongly, or oscillation weakly. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: Market conditions suggest an oscillating trend [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the central bank's bond trading and potential implementation of total - volume monetary policy tools, the market is expected to oscillate strongly in the fourth quarter. Current suggestions are for curve steepening and arbitrage opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Weekly attention is on US PMI and ADP employment data. The price ranges for London gold are [4000, 4400] and for London silver are [53, 60], showing an oscillating trend [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Supply constraints and increasing supply disturbances lead to an oscillating strongly trend [3]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term macro - mood fluctuations and a stable fundamental situation result in an oscillating strongly trend. In the medium - term, with limited supply growth and resilient demand, the price center is expected to rise [3]. - **Alumina**: Excess supply in reality but low - level valuation leads to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Short - term cost support and stable supply - demand result in an oscillating strongly trend. In the medium - term, strengthened cost support and potential policy disturbances also lead to an oscillating strongly trend [3]. - **Zinc**: Rising inventory, "squeezing position" situation, weakening downstream demand in the off - season, and high supply lead to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Tin**: Tight supply at the mine end provides strong price support, resulting in an oscillating strongly trend [3]. - **Lead**: High procurement demand, production decline due to smelter maintenance, and potential supply shortage lead to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Nickel**: Loose current supply - demand leads to a short - term oscillating weakly trend. Uncertainty in future supply from Indonesia means a medium - to - long - term oscillating trend [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: Fundamental factors and cost support lead to an oscillating trend [3]. New Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term tight supply - demand balance, medium - term supply surplus, and recent supply gap lead to wide - range price fluctuations and an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy support and weakening demand result in a wide - range oscillating trend. Attention is on year - end policy signals and the warehouse receipt registration process [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Potential demand decline in the organic silicon industry and inventory pressure lead to an oscillating trend. Attention is on new warehouse receipt registration progress [3]. - **Cobalt**: Escalating conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo increase potential risks, leading to an oscillating strongly trend [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating and waiting for guidance from OPEC+ meetings and geopolitical factors [3]. - **Natural Gas**: European gas prices are oscillating, and US gas prices may be strongly oscillating in the short - term [3]. - **Steam Coal**: Attention is on supply - side policies and inventory replenishment rhythm. The medium - to - long - term price range of (570 - 770) is still a significant reference [3]. - **High - Sulfur and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating downward [3]. - **Asphalt**: Futures prices are oscillating downward [3]. - **LPG**: Attention is on whether the optimistic expectations for Saudi Arabia on December 8 can be fulfilled. The basis is low, and the upside space is limited, showing an oscillating trend [3]. Chemicals - **Benzene Ethylene**: Accumulating inventory pressure in December leads to a short - term oscillating trend [3]. - **PX**: Affected by sentiment and cost in the short - term, the price range is [6650, 6950], and PXN is expected to oscillate between [250, 290] dollars per ton [3]. - **PTA**: Affected by cost and market sentiment, the price range is [4650, 4850], and the processing fee for the 01 contract is in the range of [220, 300] yuan per ton [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices are expected to continue oscillating in the low - level range, and the EG01 - 05 spread should be cautiously arbitraged at high levels [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price follows raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee fluctuates between 950 - 1100 yuan per ton. A short - PF and long - TA position can be lightly attempted [3]. - **Bottle Chips**: The processing fee has strong support at the bottom of the short - term range but also faces significant upward pressure, and the absolute price follows raw material fluctuations [3]. - **Methanol**: After the overseas information is confirmed, the futures price rebounds but shows signs of weakness. Attention is on whether the coastal inventory can continue to be digested [3]. - **PP and PE**: The upside space is limited, and attention is on maintenance changes, showing an oscillating trend [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: A decline in electricity prices in December lowers the cost, and the futures price may decline. If upstream production is cut or the warehouse receipt logic before delivery is fermented, the price may stabilize [3]. - **PVC**: Short - term 01 contract shows a small - scale rebound due to position games. Without positive factors, the price may return to a weak trend in the medium - to - long - term [3]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Short - term storage progress may return to normal, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention is on the overall progress of off - season storage [3]. Agriculture - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: With an increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December, speculation on South American soybeans, and China's return to the US soybean market, US soybeans and domestic soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly at high levels. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory decline is slow, and the basis is rising. The bean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention is on the long position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the main contract change [3]. - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil)**: With a narrowing expected increase in palm oil production in November, a stable market sentiment, cost support for domestic soybean oil, tight domestic rapeseed supply, and inventory reduction of rapeseed oil, edible oils are expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, it is oscillating strongly. Before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, the price is likely to oscillate at a high level [3]. - **Pigs**: In the near - term, the pig price continues to be weak due to high - level production capacity and large - scale pig slaughter at the end of the year. In the long - term, production capacity reduction expectations support the far - month contract price. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention is on the reverse - arbitrage strategy opportunity [3]. - **Apples**: With strong support for the spot price, positive expectations from Tomb - Sweeping Festival stockpiling and possible weather speculation, the futures price is relatively firm. Attention is on low - buying opportunities after price corrections and future weather changes in the producing areas [3]. - **Rubber**: It is not the time for a trend - forming market, and the current price is closer to the upper - level pressure. For arbitrage, the RU - MR spread has reached a phased high, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it oscillates within a range. In the long - term, with a low valuation, it is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price oscillates widely due to the issue of warehouse receipts [3]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - to - long - term, due to expected supply surplus in the new sugar - making season, the price has a downward driving force, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Shows an oscillating trend. The market's expectation of resuming navigation in the first half of 2026 has increased, but there is still pressure on the far - month contract, and it is difficult to fully resume navigation in the first quarter [3].