黑色建材日报 2026-03-25 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3145 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 9 元/吨（-0.28%）。当日注册仓单 63614 吨, 环比增加 3659 吨。主力合约持仓量为 126.35 万手，环比减少 87899 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3324 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 6 元/吨（-0.18%）。 当日注册仓单 521912 吨, 环比减少 294 吨。主力合约持仓量为 102.43 万手，环比减少 31099 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3300 元 /吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 【策略观点】 昨日商品指数延续高位震荡，成材价格整体维持震荡偏强运行。宏观方面，1—2 月房地产数据表现依旧偏 弱：房地产开发企业房屋施工面积 535372 万平方米，同比下降 11.7%，其中住宅施工面积 371347 万平方 米，同比下降 11.9%；房屋新开工面积 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. The conflict has led to fluctuations in risk preferences, inflation expectations, and interest - rate expectations. For example, the conflict has caused oil price volatility, which in turn affects inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate adjustment expectations have also changed [4][7][9]. - Different industries and asset classes show different responses to the geopolitical situation. Some industries are under pressure due to inflation and supply - side disruptions, while others may find support from certain factors such as cost increases or demand recovery [12][14][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Events such as Iran charging tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Japan's adjustment of Sino - Japanese relations, and changes in the eurozone's PMI have an impact on the market. The central bank conducts MLF operations and a company signs a large - scale procurement contract [2]. - **Strategy View**: The US - Iran conflict disturbs global risk preferences, and the hawkish statements of Powell and European Central Bank officials have led to a retreat in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond contracts show different changes. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expresses concerns about the Middle East conflict, and Japan's inflation data shows a slowdown [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in the first two months of the year have improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. The geopolitical conflict in Iran has led to concerns about imported inflation, and the bond market is expected to be weak in the short term [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in both domestic and international markets show an upward trend. The US PMI data and Turkey's plan to use gold reserves to stabilize the exchange rate are also important factors [8]. - **Strategy View**: Geopolitical conflicts are the core focus of the market. If the conflict eases, gold may regain its upward momentum, but in the short term, precious metals still face valuation pressure. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price fluctuates due to the uncertainty in the Middle East. The LME inventory increases, and the domestic spot market shows different trends [11]. - **Strategy View**: Although the Middle East situation has eased, the supply of copper raw materials is still tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price may continue to test the bottom in the short term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum rises as the market expects the US and Iran to negotiate. The inventory and spot price show certain changes [13]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive the inventory to decrease. The aluminum price is supported by fundamentals [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price shows a rising trend, and the inventory and basis data are provided [15]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation. The high oil price has put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price rises slightly, and relevant inventory and basis data are presented [17]. - **Strategy View**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range. The downstream buying and low - level operation of recycling smelting enterprises support the spot price, but the high oil price and other factors may also lead to short - term downward pressure [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price rises slightly, and the cost and price of related products are stable [18]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the nickel price may be under pressure, but in the medium term, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to use a high - selling and low - buying strategy [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rises significantly, and the inventory decreases. The supply and demand sides show different trends [19]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand shows a weak recovery. The tin price is expected to be weak, but the downstream restocking provides short - term support [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rises, and the futures contract price also shows an upward trend [21]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the downstream restocking provides support. Attention should be paid to changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price falls, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [23]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of alumina may be tightened in the short term, but the long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rises, and the inventory and spot price show certain changes [25]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel market has a loose supply pattern, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's RKAB application approval [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rebounds, and relevant trading volume and inventory data are provided [26]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of casting aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is supported in the short term [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil show a downward trend, and the inventory and spot price data are provided [29]. - **Strategy View**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The real - estate data is weak, and the demand for steel is limited. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [31]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The iron ore price oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to risk control [32][33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fall, and relevant spot price and basis data are provided [34]. - **Strategy View**: The market has shifted to price and trade stagflation and recession. The black sector may face less pressure, and the coking coal price may be supported in the short term, but the fundamentals for a significant rebound are insufficient. It is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price falls, and relevant inventory and position data are provided [37]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is under high - inventory pressure and weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release of demand and inventory changes [38]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash price falls, and relevant inventory and position data are provided [39]. - **Strategy View**: The soda ash market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fall, and relevant spot price and basis data are provided [40]. - **Strategy View**: The market has shifted to price and trade stagflation and recession. The black sector may face less pressure. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [42][43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price rises slightly, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [44]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of industrial silicon is gradually increasing, and the demand improvement is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and the cost provides support [45]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price rises slightly, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [46]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental situation, and the price is expected to oscillate and find the bottom [47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price shows different trends due to different factors. The开工 rate of tire enterprises and inventory data are provided [49][50]. - **Strategy View**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and conduct short - term trading. Options and hedging strategies are also provided [52][53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price falls, and the prices of related refined oil products also decline [54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish strategies for crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price changes, and the MTO profit also changes [56]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price shows different trends in different regions, and the futures price rises [58]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - sell urea. When the substitution valuation reaches the extreme, there may be short - term demand support [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene show different trends, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data are provided [60]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the large fluctuations in the disk affected by geopolitical factors [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price falls, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data are provided [62]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC price is expected to rise in the short term, but attention should be paid to risks [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [64][65]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol market is expected to see a decline in supply and an increase in demand, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [67]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, and it is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [70][71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [74]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price falls, and the supply and demand situation is not ideal [77]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is in the concentrated realization period, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price is mostly stable, and the supply and demand situation is normal [79]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price may be strong, but the long - term demand may decline. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The planting area of soybeans and corn in the US is expected to increase, and relevant export and inventory data are provided [81]. - **Strategy View**: The March USDA report is neutral. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the impact of the geopolitical crisis [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia may tighten palm oil exports, and relevant production, export, and inventory data of palm oil are provided [84]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term oil price is driven by the geopolitical crisis, and the medium - term outlook for oils and fats is bullish [85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The import volume of sugar in China increases, and the production and inventory data of sugar in different countries are provided [86]. - **Strategy View**: The sugar price may have room for rebound, and it is recommended to buy on dips [88]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The import volume of cotton and cotton yarn in China increases, and relevant production, export, and inventory data of cotton are provided [89]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term impact of the new import quota is negative for Zhengzhou cotton, but the medium - term outlook is positive. It is recommended to buy on dips [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index, a rebound in A - shares, and a general rise in various assets. The market's risk preference is in a state of shock. For commodities, different sectors have different trends and influencing factors, such as steel prices being affected by cost and demand, and copper prices being affected by macro and fundamental factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US intends to propose a one - month cease - fire to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran. The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [1][12][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a volume - shrinking rebound due to the easing of the US - Iran situation. If the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz can be restored through negotiation, the stagflation trade may reverse, and equity opportunities will emerge. Currently, due to high uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and add positions on dips [2][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 17.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations. The market has carried out TACO trading, with various assets generally rising. It is necessary to closely monitor the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [3][19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico and South Africa have made anti - dumping rulings on Chinese steel products. Steel prices are oscillating. The lack of clear fundamentals and the influence of Trump's statements and the Middle East situation have led to market fluctuations. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by cost, and the upside space is limited [4][22][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The power coal market in Shaanxi is strong. The coking coal spot market has a good trading atmosphere, with prices rising. In the short term, the international oil price and downstream replenishment support the coking coal price, but in the long term, the lack of terminal demand and sufficient supply may suppress the price [27][28][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US and Vietnamese textile and clothing imports and exports have different trends. The domestic textile industry is in good condition, with sufficient orders. However, there are concerns about import yarn, policy tools, planting area, and the macro - economic situation. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [31][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of corn in the four northern ports has increased, and the sales progress of the grassroots has recovered. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The policy provides a bottom - support for the corn price. Corn is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Dazhong Mining plans to invest in a lithium salt project. The lithium export ban in Zimbabwe has not been lifted as expected. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [39][40][41]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium rebounded slightly. The market follows macro - fluctuations. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, use options, and pay attention to the opportunity of long platinum and short palladium [41][42][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [44][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Atalaya's copper production in the first quarter is slightly lower than planned. The macro - factors are complex and changeable, and the fundamentals show internal - external differentiation. The copper price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [48][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin is at a discount. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the spot is at a premium. The supply and demand are both weak, and the tin price is oscillating widely due to the influence of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [52][54]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG spot price is stable, with some low - price areas having a supplementary increase. The market is affected by the news of the US - Iran negotiation. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of price fluctuations [55]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses is decreasing. The downstream enterprises maintain rigid procurement, and the supply has a gap. It is recommended to take a bullish - oscillating view [56][57][58]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries is decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The asphalt price is affected by the oil price and the geopolitical situation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [58][59]. 3.2.14 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US - Iran situation has a impact on the oil price and the container freight rate. The near - month and far - month contracts have different logics. It is recommended to maintain a bullish - oscillating view and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [60][61].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is influenced by expectations of a "ceasefire" between the US and Iran, along with central bank liquidity measures, leading to fluctuations in oil and gold prices [1][10] - The US has proposed a 15-point negotiation plan to Iran, which includes dismantling nuclear capabilities and halting missile programs, in exchange for lifting sanctions [4][10] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated that the current Middle East crisis is more severe than the oil crises of the 1970s, impacting energy prices significantly [1][10] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Oil prices have shown volatility, with Brent crude falling below $100 per barrel, while gold prices rebounded after a nine-day decline, reaching $4475 [1][10] - Copper prices increased by 0.68% due to tight supply conditions, although the overall demand remains weak in sectors like automotive and real estate [2][16] - The aluminum market is facing supply risks due to geopolitical tensions, with significant production cuts announced by major aluminum producers [18] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - US stock indices experienced slight declines, with market sentiment affected by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and rising inflation expectations due to high oil prices [2][7] - The financing balance in China decreased by 115.10 billion yuan, indicating cautious market sentiment during the earnings disclosure period [2][7] - The central bank in China is expected to maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools, including MLF operations, to support the economy [8]

Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market is still adjusting, but valuations have dropped to their lowest point of the year, with the adjusted conversion premium rate currently at approximately 33.11% [9][10] - The compression in valuations is influenced by multiple factors, including adjustments in institutional expectations for the equity market's continued upward movement, as evidenced by changes in convertible bond ETF shares [9][10] - There is a rising pressure for forced redemptions as the equity market adjusts, leading issuers to show increased willingness to redeem high-priced bonds to avoid future unfavorable conditions [9][10] Market Review - The convertible bond market has experienced a notable adjustment since the Spring Festival, primarily due to the decline in the underlying equity market [9][10] - The current market environment reflects a cautious outlook on the sustainability of high equity prices, prompting issuers to act on redemption opportunities [9][10] Valuation Levels - The adjusted conversion premium rate has reached a year-to-date low, indicating significant valuation compression in the convertible bond market [9][10] - The market is witnessing structural pressures, particularly regarding the willingness of issuers to redeem bonds as market conditions change [9][10] Primary Issuance and Special Terms - Recent developments in issuance plans show various companies progressing through different stages of approval for convertible bond offerings, with issuance limits ranging from 1.39 billion to 35 billion [17] - The upcoming issuance and listing of convertible bonds include several notable companies, indicating ongoing market activity despite current adjustments [19][20] Special Terms - There is an increasing likelihood of forced redemptions for certain convertible bonds, with specific conditions outlined for triggering these actions [21] - The report highlights several bonds that may trigger redemption or adjustment based on current market conditions and issuer strategies [21][23]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The core drivers for gold price increase are geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, with current valuations remaining low, presenting good buying opportunities during pullbacks [3][17][33] - Central banks have maintained high gold purchasing levels, with net purchases from 2022 to 2025 being significant contributors to global gold demand [17][18][26] - The demand for gold ETFs has rebounded, with a notable increase in holdings, particularly from Asian investors in 2025, contributing to overall gold demand [13][14] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The demand structure for industrial metals is undergoing significant changes due to the growth of renewable energy and AI, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance [4][40] - Copper is expected to face a supply gap exceeding 200,000 tons this year, driven by strong demand from AI and grid upgrades, alongside supply constraints from geopolitical risks [4][41] - The copper price dynamics are influenced by geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, leading to high volatility [41][47] Group 3: Strategic Metals - The rare earth market has shifted from demand-driven to supply-driven, with stricter domestic quotas and regulations leading to increased concentration in the industry [5] - The demand for natural uranium is expected to rise significantly due to AI-driven nuclear power growth, indicating a long-term bullish outlook for prices [5] Group 4: Energy Metals and Steel - The fundamentals for lithium remain strong, with ongoing inventory depletion and policy disruptions creating structural trading opportunities [6] - The steel industry has shown signs of bottoming out, with future price movements dependent on policy interventions and capacity reductions [6] Group 5: Copper Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper supply is expected to stabilize after reaching peak production levels, with marginal output declines indicating a shift from rapid expansion to high-level fluctuations [51][57] - The copper processing sector has shown a strong recovery post-holiday season, indicating robust demand in the power infrastructure and end-user markets [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.10%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the strong raw materials drive the rebar price to rise, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upside space is limited, and the strong cost continues to compete with the weak reality. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.21%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil have improved marginally under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. Coupled with the cost support brought by the strong raw materials, the price of hot-rolled coil has risen. However, there are concerns about demand, and the subsequent trend of the high inventory situation should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.55%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. Currently, the positive factors remain, and the demand for iron ore has improved, supporting the high price of iron ore. However, the fundamentals of iron ore remain weakly stable under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upward driving force of the high-valued iron ore price is not strong, and the subsequent trend will maintain a high-level fluctuating operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - As of March 24, 23 provinces have announced their investment plans for key provincial projects in 2026, with a total of 26,753 projects. Among them, 17 provinces including Guangdong, Fujian, Hubei, and Anhui have announced their annual planned investments, with a total of about 10.36 trillion yuan [7]. - From March 16 to March 22, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.8897 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 27.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%. The total transaction (signing) area of second-hand housing in 10 key cities was 2.2767 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Only Guangzhou saw a month-on-month decrease in the transaction area of newly built housing, with a decrease of 7.8%. The other 9 cities all achieved month-on-month growth in the transaction (signing) area of newly built housing, among which Suzhou had the largest increase, with a month-on-month growth of 112.2% to 94,000 square meters. In terms of the number of transactions (signings), the total number of transactions (signings) of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 17,600 units, a month-on-month increase of 34%. All 10 cities saw a month-on-month increase in the number of transactions (signings) of newly built housing, among which Foshan had the largest increase, with a month-on-month growth of 55.6% to 1,962 units [8]. - In February 2026, the total energy consumption of member enterprises decreased by 2.91% year-on-year; the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.66% year-on-year; the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel decreased by 1.43% year-on-year; the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 4.05% year-on-year. The total power consumption of member enterprises increased by 2.56% year-on-year. The total self-generated power increased by 7.86% year-on-year; the self-generated power ratio was 62.57%, an increase of 3.08 percentage points year-on-year. The clean energy power generation increased by 31.25% year-on-year. Among them, the wind power generation increased by 62.07% year-on-year; the photovoltaic power generation increased by 31.50% year-on-year [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,210 yuan, and the national average price was 3,345 yuan, with a decrease of 10 yuan in Shanghai, 0 yuan in Tianjin, and 1 yuan in the national average price. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,300 yuan and 3,240 yuan respectively, and the national average price was 3,333 yuan, with an increase of 0 yuan in Shanghai, 10 yuan in Tianjin, and 6 yuan in the national average price. The price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,990 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,190 yuan, both unchanged. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 90 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 yuan, with a change of 10 yuan and -10 yuan respectively [10]. - The price of PB powder (Shandong port) was 795 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 772 yuan, unchanged. The ocean freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 11.55 yuan and 30.37 yuan respectively, with a decrease of 0.22 yuan and 0.16 yuan respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 106.70 yuan, a decrease of 0.04 yuan. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 109.45 yuan, a decrease of 0.10 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,145 yuan, a decrease of 0.10%. The highest price was 3,155 yuan, the lowest price was 3,135 yuan, the trading volume was 618,964 lots, a decrease of 392,391 lots, and the open interest was 1,263,489 lots, a decrease of 87,899 lots [14]. - The closing price of the active hot-rolled coil contract was 3,324 yuan, an increase of 0.21%. The highest price was 3,329 yuan, the lowest price was 3,310 yuan, the trading volume was 253,950 lots, a decrease of 218,444 lots, and the open interest was 1,024,272 lots, a decrease of 31,099 lots [14]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 824.0 yuan, an increase of 0.55%. The highest price was 829.5 yuan, the lowest price was 813.0 yuan, the trading volume was 219,790 lots, a decrease of 43,540 lots, and the open interest was 445,891 lots, an increase of 3,958 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts showing the inventory changes of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills, including inventory levels, inventory changes, and the opening rates and profit situations of steel mills [16][25][33] 5. Future Market Outlook - Rebar: Both supply and demand continue to pick up. Construction steel mills are actively producing, and the weekly output of rebar increased by 80,300 tons month-on-month, rising for three consecutive weeks to a relatively high level. Although the inventory has begun to decline, it is still higher than the same period last year, and there is still supply pressure. At the same time, the demand for rebar continues to improve seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 312,800 tons month-on-month, but the high-frequency trading performance is weak, and both are at relatively low levels in the same period. Considering that the policy is not beyond expectations and there is no substantial change in the downstream industries, the subsequent demand growth space is limited. In short, the strong raw materials drive the rebar price to rise, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upside space is limited, and the strong cost continues to compete with the weak reality. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [42]. - Hot-rolled coil: Both supply and demand have increased. The resumption of production by steel mills has led to an increase in the output of hot-rolled coil, with a week-on-week increase of 49,500 tons, and there is still room for growth. In addition, the inventory level is still relatively high, and the supply pressure has been relieved to a limited extent. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes. However, the demand for hot-rolled coil has shown good resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 151,500 tons month-on-month, and the high-frequency daily trading volume also remains at a high level, mainly supported by the high output of downstream industries. It is necessary to guard against the intensification of contradictions, and the export performance is average under the disturbance of the Middle East conflict, and the concerns about demand remain. At present, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil have improved marginally under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. Coupled with the cost support brought by the strong raw materials, the price of hot-rolled coil has risen. However, there are concerns about demand, and the subsequent trend of the high inventory situation should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [42]. - Iron ore: There have been changes in both supply and demand. Steel mills are actively resuming production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded from a low level. Last week, the average daily pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mills both increased significantly month-on-month, which is in line with expectations. However, the improvement in the profitability of steel mills is limited, and the contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated. The improvement space for iron ore demand may be limited. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has increased slightly, while the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will be stable, and the domestic iron ore production is recovering, and the supply of iron ore is increasing steadily. In short, the positive factors remain, and the demand for iron ore has improved, supporting the high price of iron ore. However, the fundamentals of iron ore remain weakly stable under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upward driving force of the high-valued iron ore price is not strong, and the subsequent trend will maintain a high-level fluctuating operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [43].

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has been on an appreciation trend this year, with the USD/RMB exchange rate increasing by 1.5% and the EUR/RMB by 1.4% in the first two months[4] - The nominal effective exchange rate of the RMB has surpassed 108, indicating a broad-based appreciation against a basket of currencies[4] Trade Surplus and Economic Implications - China's goods trade surplus reached approximately $1.2 trillion last year, a record-breaking figure, indicating a significant trade imbalance with partners[4] - The strong trade surplus may lead to increased trade friction amid rising global protectionism, prompting a policy shift towards expanding imports to narrow the surplus[4] Oil Prices and Cost Pressures - Global oil prices have surged, with Brent crude stabilizing around $100, reflecting an increase of over 30% compared to the same period last year[4] - The appreciation of the RMB can help alleviate cost pressures from rising commodity prices, enhancing the competitiveness of RMB-denominated trade[4] Export Outlook - Despite the RMB's appreciation, the impact on exports is expected to be limited due to the high bargaining power of China's exports, primarily in machinery and high-tech products[4] - China's share in global trade remains substantial, making it difficult for other countries to fully replace Chinese manufactured goods[4] Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks, domestic policy implementation challenges, and potential global recession driven by oil price increases are highlighted as significant risks to the economic outlook[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The black - metal sector maintained a volatile trend today. Overseas sentiment was fluctuating. Spot steel sales were generally average, and there was no willingness to increase positions in the spot and futures markets. The sentiment of speculators and end - users for purchasing improved compared to last week. The five major steel products continued to increase production last week, with the increase rate of rebar production slowing down and hot - rolled coil production turning to increase. Hot - rolled coil inventory was being depleted at an accelerated pace, but the overall inventory level was still high, and there was pressure on supply and demand. Due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, energy prices and shipping freight rates continued to rise, and coking coal prices rose due to the substitution of coal for crude oil. If the conflict intensifies, it may drive up the raw material cost of steel. Rumors of import restrictions on Newman powder supported the iron ore price. Therefore, steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term, influenced by overseas factors and raw materials. Attention should still be paid to hot - metal production, downstream demand, and overseas geopolitical frictions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - **Futures**: RB05 was at 3145 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), RB10 at 3173 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), and RB01 at 3196 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan). The 05 - contract rebar disk profit was - 215 yuan (up 5 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 166 yuan (up 3 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 143 yuan (unchanged) [2]. - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3210 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Nanjing Iron and Steel's was 3350 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Shiheng's was 3320 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and Tangshan Tanggang's was 3120 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of Shanghai rebar compared to other regions showed different changes, and the profit of rebar production in different regions also varied [2]. 3.1.2 Hot - rolled Coil - **Futures**: HC05 was at 3324 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan), HC10 at 3331 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan), and HC01 at 3333 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 36 yuan (up 8 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 8 yuan (up 7 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 6 yuan (up 2 yuan) [2]. - **Spot**: The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), Lecong Rigan's was 3300 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Shanghai Angang's was 3300 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of hot - rolled coil production in different regions also changed [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3210 yuan (down 10 yuan), Beijing Jingye's was 3170 yuan (unchanged), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan (unchanged), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan (up 10 yuan) [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the short position on the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio when the price is high [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Important Information** - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid will accelerate the construction of pumped - storage power stations, with a planned newly - started installed capacity exceeding 30 million kilowatts. By 2030, the installed capacity in operation and under construction will exceed 120 million kilowatts, providing over 150 million kilowatts of power regulation capacity, a more than 70% increase compared to the end of the 14th Five - Year Plan [9]. - On March 23, 2026, Mexico's Ministry of Economy issued an anti - dumping affirmative preliminary ruling on hot - rolled steel originating from China and Vietnam, imposing temporary anti - dumping duties on the涉案 products. Different Chinese exporters have different tax rates [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The document provides multiple figures related to rebar and hot - rolled coil, including price trends, basis, spreads, and profit charts from 2022 - 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [13][17][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [3][8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to see marginal improvement in fundamentals as the weather warms up, indicating a potential recovery in demand [6][19]. - The copper market is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, with a focus on oil price trends and international developments [6][40]. - The aluminum sector is affected by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, impacting energy and production, which may influence aluminum prices [6][45]. - Gold prices are currently suppressed by high oil prices, but there is potential for a rebound if geopolitical tensions ease [6][52]. - Lithium prices are adjusting due to economic outlook concerns, but demand recovery could support prices in the future [6][56]. Industry Data Summary Steel - Steel production increased to 8.3982 million tons as of March 20, 2026, a 2.30% increase from March 13, 2026, but a 2.96% decrease year-on-year [21][19]. - The total steel inventory decreased to 19.2485 million tons, a 1.33% decline from the previous week, but an 8.26% increase year-on-year [28][19]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 85.53%, up 2.61 percentage points from the previous week [23][19]. Copper - The LME copper price was $12,000 per ton, down 5.77% from March 13, 2026, while domestic copper inventory decreased [42][40]. - The copper smelting fee was reported at -$67.20 per dry ton, indicating tight supply conditions [41][40]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum price was $3,300 per ton, down 5.43% from March 13, 2026, with domestic aluminum inventory showing mixed trends [46][45]. - The average price of alumina was reported at 2,752.00 yuan per ton, a 2.00% increase from the previous week [46][45]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell to $4,492.00 per ounce, a 10.57% decrease from March 13, 2026, influenced by high oil prices and geopolitical tensions [52][52]. - Silver prices also saw a significant drop, with COMEX silver at $67.81 per ounce, down 15.92% [52][52]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices were reported at 152,500 yuan per ton, a 3.17% decrease, while lithium hydroxide was at 149,500 yuan per ton, down 0.66% [57][56]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Light rare earth prices, such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide, decreased to 702,500 yuan per ton, down 12.46% [63][63]. - Tungsten concentrate prices were reported at 1,023,000 yuan per ton, down 2.39% [68][67].