2026年02月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期回暖，矿价震荡上扬 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪扰动，价格宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：南非矿产税务信息扰动，资金低位拉涨 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：仓单扰动，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：上游报价坚挺，短期煤价表现偏强 | 9 | | 原木：预期回暖，震荡偏强 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 来源：Mysteel，东财 Choice，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 （1）上海市住房城乡建设管理委、上海市房屋管理局等 5 部门 2 月 25 日联合发布《关于进一步优化 调整本市房地产政策的通知》，自 2026 年 2 月 26 日起施行。 （2）2 月 25 日讯，据了解华北部分钢企已接到 2026 年全国两会期间临时自主减排通知，要求企业在 3 月 4 ...

编辑/doris | 序號 | 代碼 | 名稱 | 最新價 | 漲跌幅 | 成交額 : | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 01053 | 重慶鋼鐵股份 | 1.280 | +4.92% | 5177.86萬 | | 2 | 00826 | 天工國際 | 4.160 | +0.73% | 2362.41萬 | | 3 | 00323 | 馬鞍山鋼鐵股份 | 2.650 | +3.11% | 2290.83萬 | | ব | 00347 | 鞍鋼股份 | 2.100 | +2.94% | 1482.34萬 | | 5 | 03788 | 中國罕王 | 4.230 | +2.42% | 1262.54萬 | | 6 | 00581 | 中國東方集團 | 1.600 | +2.56% | 560.7萬 | | 7 | 01104 | 亞太資源 | 3.330 | +4.06% | 422.28 萬 | | 8 | 02623 | 愛德新能源 | 4.920 | +2.50% | 101萬 | 消息面上，多家钢铁企业披露2026年首月实现生产"开门红"，方大达钢 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 铁矿石：预期回暖，矿价震荡上扬 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -4.0 | -0.53% | | | I2605 | | 748.5 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 540,573 | 12,089 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 卡粉（65%） | 878.0 | 873.0 | 5.0 | | | 进口矿 | PB（61.5%） | 750.0 | 752.0 | -2.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴 （61%） | 702.0 | 705.0 | -3.0 | | | | 超特（56.5%） | 638.0 | 640.0 | -2.0 | | | 国产矿 | 邯邢（66%） | 899.0 ...

2026年2月27日，包钢股份（sh600010）触及涨停，涨停价3.28元，涨幅8.39%，总市值1462.82亿元，流 通市值1013.60亿元，截止发稿，总成交额70.89亿元。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 根据喜娜AI异动分析，包钢股份涨停原因可能如下，净利润增长+股份回购+稀土业务转型： 1、公司前 三季度净利润同比增加7.49亿元，经营状况显著改善，这显示公司盈利能力提升，对股价有积极的刺激 作用。同时公司持续实施股份回购计划，已累计回购约1.3亿元，占总股本0.12%左右，股份回购往往向 市场传递公司对自身价值的认可，增强投资者信心。 2、公司明确"优质精品钢 + 系列稀土钢"战略定 位，进行稀土业务战略转型，且稀 ...

消息面上，多家钢铁企业披露2026年首月实现生产"开门红"，方大达钢1月生铁、粗钢、钢材产量分别 完成生产计划的105.01%、110.63%和110.71%，多项核心指标再攀新高；阳春新钢铁1月全月产销率达 到101%，销售渠道实现新突破。 华泰证券发布研报称，近期两会自主减排或标志着双碳政策进入实质执行阶段，供给约束常态化或成为 行业盈利修复核心驱动，2026年钢铁行业有望复苏。当前行业处于历史低位，叠加粗钢产量长期下行， 下游需求结构持续优化，钢铁正进入政策主导、供给收缩、利润弹性放大的复苏周期。 钢铁股再度走高，截至发稿，重庆钢铁（601005）股份(01053)涨7.38%，报1.31港元；马鞍山钢铁股份 (00323)涨4.67%，报2.69港元；鞍钢股份（000898）(00347)涨4.41%，报2.13港元；中国东方集团 (00581)涨2.56%，报1.6港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，钢铁股再度走高，截至发稿，重庆钢铁股份(01053)涨7.38%，报1.31港元；马鞍山 钢铁股份(00323)涨4.67%，报2.69港元；鞍钢股份(00347)涨4.41%，报2.13港元；中国东方集团(00581) 涨2.56%，报1.6港元。 华泰证券发布研报称，近期两会自主减排或标志着双碳政策进入实质执行阶段，供给约束常态化或成为 行业盈利修复核心驱动，2026 年钢铁行业有望复苏。当前行业处于历史低位，叠加粗钢产量长期下 行，下游需求结构持续优化，钢铁正进入政策主导、供给收缩、利润弹性放大的复苏周期。 消息面上，多家钢铁企业披露2026年首月实现生产"开门红"，方大达钢1月生铁、粗钢、钢材产量分别 完成生产计划的105.01%、110.63%和110.71%，多项核心指标再攀新高；阳春新钢铁1月全月产销率达 到101%，销售渠道实现新突破。 ...

螺纹钢周度数据（20260227） 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 165.10 -5.28 199.83 -34.73 183.80 -18.70 高炉产能利用率（%） 87.45 1.04 85.47 1.98 85.76 1.69 表观需求量 80.54 39.38 176.40 -95.86 131.55 -51.01 钢联建材成交周均值 #N/A #N/A 6.74 #N/A #N/A #N/A 总库存 800.60 84.56 475.53 325.07 705.38 95.22 厂内库存 232.84 11.77 149.13 83.71 220.01 12.83 社会库存 567.76 72.79 326.40 241.36 485.37 82.39 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 春 节 前 15 周 春 节 前 12 周 春 节 前 9 周 春 节 前 6 周 前 3 后 3 后 6 后 9 后 12 后 15 螺纹钢周度产量（农历） 2026 2025 20 ...

"十五五"开局之年，工业经济如何干出气势、跑出速度？ 2月26日召开的全省工业经济高质量发展推进会议给出了方向和路径：稳增长与提质效协同发力，持续 做强工业经济"头号工程"。 稳住是根基，提质是关键。做强"头号工程"，守的是基本盘、谋的是高质量、抓的是新突破，最终都要 落在稳增长、提质效这"两个发力"上。 大抓工业，是山东树立起的鲜明导向。 作为全国重要的工业基地，山东拥有41个工业大类、197个工业中类和603个工业小类，是工业门类最为 齐全的省份之一。近年来，山东通过深入实施工业经济"头号工程"，推动工业经济实现量质齐升。 看规模体量，2025年规上工业增加值增长7.6%、高于全国1.7个百分点；"十四五"期间年均增速7.5%、 高于全国1.6个百分点，对经济增长发挥了稳定器、动力源作用。 看发展质效，高新技术产业产值占比达到55.7%，5年提升10.6个百分点；数字经济占GDP比重突破 50%、5年提升9个百分点，国家级数字领航企业18家、居全国首位。 看产业生态，19条标志性产业链汇集九成以上规上工业企业，工业总产值过百亿元企业达到148家，274 家单项冠军企业产品市场占有率跻身全球前三，国家先进制 ...

产 量 和 库 存 | | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/27 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/02/12 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/13 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/24 | 3100 | 3200 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/25 | 3100 | 3200 | 3360 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/26 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with base metals leading the gains. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend after the opening, but the slope will be slower than in January. The RMB is expected to continue to strengthen in the second quarter. Most varieties in the market are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 25, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4731.4, with a daily increase of 0.9%, a weekly increase of 2.26%, a monthly increase of 0.43%, a quarterly increase of 2.86%, and an annual increase of 2.86%. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different degrees of decline on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 97.6594 on February 25, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.24%, a weekly decline of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.56%, and an annual decline of 0.62%. The US dollar intermediate price decreased by 202 pips daily [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.05 bp on February 25, 2026, with a daily increase of 1 bp, a weekly decline of 3 bp, a monthly decline of 21 bp, and an annual decline of 13 bp [2]. 3.2 Fluctuations of Popular Industries - On February 26, 2026, the defense and military industry had a daily increase of 1.62%, a weekly increase of 4.8%, a monthly increase of 6.07%, a quarterly increase of 10.92%, and an annual increase of 10.92%. The consumer services industry had a daily decline of 1.41%, a weekly decline of 5.6%, a monthly decline of 4.96%, a quarterly decline of 4.37%, and an annual decline of 4.37% [5]. 3.3 Fluctuations of Overseas Commodities - On February 25, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at 65.57, with a daily decline of 0.09%, a weekly decline of 1.12%, a monthly decline of 0.26%, a quarterly increase of 14.21%, and an annual increase of 14.21%. COMEX gold was priced at 5183.7, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, a monthly increase of 5.63%, a quarterly increase of 19.66%, and an annual increase of 19.66% [8]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption performed well, while real - estate sales were at a seasonal low. The social financing at the beginning of January was stable, with strong government - sector financing and private - sector financing in line with expectations [16]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US economy showed a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. In February 2026, the US economic sentiment and consumer confidence weakened, and the private - sector expansion slowed down [16]. - **Major Asset Classes**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation and Trump's tariff policy may support the prices of gold and silver in the short - term. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, while the black - metal sector and the domestic bond market may continue to oscillate. The RMB is expected to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish, stock index options are expected to oscillate, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be oscillating and bullish [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials, such as copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish trend [17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt, are expected to oscillate [20]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, such as natural rubber, cotton, and sugar, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish or bearish trend [20].