王华表示，全球在能源安全、产业链安全的大趋势下，发达国家通过财政扩张加速再工业化进程落地， AI科技革命驱动新基建资本开支增加，为大宗商品价格提供了有力支撑。此外，市场预期美联储在 2026年仍将有2至3次降息，进一步推动了全球货币宽松的预期。在此背景下，商品价格有望获得宏观层 面和行业基本面的双重利好。特别是铜、铝行业，在供给偏紧与需求稳健增长的驱动下，价格中枢有望 持续上移，为投资者带来良好的配置机会。此外，报告还强调了贵金属的长期配置价值，特别是黄金在 全球秩序不稳定及债务增长背景下，作为避险资产的功能日益凸显。 王华认为，中国中央经济工作会议对供给侧改革的深化及物价回升的关注，为中游周期板块探明了底 部、迎来了修复空间。通过"反内卷"政策约束，结合需求侧的托底政策，周期行业的供需格局有望得到 显著改善。例如，新能源、化工等行业，而地产销售的加速探底，其产业链的利空因素逐渐递减，行业 有望在年底迎来修复的可能性。 正启新程——平安基金2026年投资策略会于1月7日举行。平安鑫利混合基金经理王华在分享《周期致远 循势而行：2026年周期板块投资展望》主题报告时指出，随着2026年全球进入财政与货币政策的双 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant improvement in the tourism and cultural sectors during the New Year holiday, with a notable increase in both domestic and international travel demand, with daily cross-regional personnel flow reaching 198 million, up 19.5% year-on-year [7][9] - The average daily inbound and outbound personnel during the New Year holiday reached 2.205 million, marking a 28.6% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery in inbound tourism due to optimized policies [7][9] - Domestic tourism saw a daily average of 47.33 million tourists and a revenue of 28.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% and 6.3% respectively, driven by improved service supply in popular destinations [9][10] Group 2 - The report notes a rise in pig prices, with the national average price for pigs increasing by 3.9% week-on-week, attributed to improved demand from New Year stocking [19] - Real estate sales continue to face challenges, with transaction volumes in 30 major cities down 26.0% year-on-year, and significant declines observed across first, second, and third-tier cities [14][15] - The retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 12% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the durable goods sector, with rising inventory levels among dealers [15][16] Group 3 - The electronic industry remains robust, with DRAM memory prices increasing by 2.6% to 7.1% across different types, driven by AI infrastructure investments [21][22] - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating a low-level oscillation in steel prices [23][27] - Chemical prices are mixed, with PX prices rising by 6.4%, while some other chemical prices have slightly declined, reflecting a tight supply-demand balance in the chemical industry [32][33] Group 4 - Coal prices have stabilized, with a week-on-week increase of 0.9%, and port inventories continuing to decline, suggesting increased downstream replenishment activity [36][37] - Industrial metal prices have continued to rise, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 2.5% and 1.9% respectively, driven by supply concerns and strong global demand expectations [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the coal mining, black metal mining, and pharmaceutical manufacturing sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these areas [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the industrial sector is experiencing a recovery in both volume and price indicators, particularly in midstream manufacturing and upstream resource sectors such as coal, oil extraction, black metal mining, and pharmaceutical manufacturing [2][3]. - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 has returned to the expansion zone at 50.1%, indicating improved order sentiment and operational expectations across various industries [7]. - Consumer confidence has rebounded to a two-year high, although certain sectors like automotive and home appliances are facing challenges due to high base effects and demand saturation [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industrial Sector Overview - As of November 2025, revenue, industrial added value, and profit growth rates for major industrial enterprises show signs of improvement, particularly in coal, oil extraction, black metal mining, and pharmaceutical manufacturing [2][5]. - The supply side indicates that industries such as pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, textiles, and chemicals are experiencing inventory reduction and low fixed asset growth [2][6]. Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - The overall manufacturing PMI has improved, with new orders and business activity expectations showing recovery, particularly in high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods sectors [7]. - The report notes that the consumer market is seeing a decline in growth rates for discretionary spending, while service consumption remains strong [2][3]. Sector-Specific Insights - In advanced manufacturing, sectors like photovoltaic and lithium battery materials are experiencing price increases due to high demand and supply chain adjustments [3]. - The insurance sector is seeing a slowdown in premium income growth, but there is an expectation for a rebound in early 2026 as companies prepare for new business initiatives [3]. Commodity and Price Trends - The report discusses fluctuations in energy prices, with crude oil supply exceeding demand and coal prices remaining low due to high inventory levels and weak heating demand [3][6]. - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, supported by a weaker dollar and increased demand in the context of global economic conditions [3][6].

元旦"微度假"热度高 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.04 2026-01-06 国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 1 期） 本报告导读： 消费复苏动能较强，但投资、生产仍需政策进一步提振。 投资要点： 宏 观 周 报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 元旦居民出行热度高，"微度假"是主流。跨区域人员流动以 19.5%的 同比增速创近期新高，铁路、水路客运增速领跑，中短途微度假成 主流，服务消费中游乐需求表现亮眼，但商品消费受年末翘尾效应 消退影响有所回落。其他高频数据显示，投资方面，地产销售边际 回落，不过其中一线城市限购放松释放部分需求，基建与开工建设 仍受新项目不足等因素制约。进出口方面，港口运行平稳，国内进 口运价与 BDI 指数走势分化。生产方面，多数行业开工率回落，呈 现分化态势，石化受成本抬升、汽车受需求回落影响表现平淡，锂 电、光伏中上游制造等新兴行业表现较好。物价上，PPI 商品价格普 遍回升，CPI 表现分化。流动性层面，人民币汇率升破 7.0 大关，资 金利率与国债收益率有所上行。 风险提示：贸 ...

2016年以来，港股与人民币的正相关关系较为显著；然而，近期人民币快速升值，港股却一度"踟蹰不 前"。股汇联动背后的逻辑、谁是谁的"影子"、未来可能的演绎？供参考。 一、热点思考：人民币与港股，谁是谁的"影子"？ （一）人民币汇率与港股的"羁绊"？正相关关系显著，但近期明显背离 历史回溯来看，人民币与港股有着显著的正相关关系； 但近期人民币快速升值，港股却仍走弱 。2016年 以来，港股与美元兑人民币的负相关系数高达-0.54；当人民币月涨幅超过1.5%时，恒生指数当月有 93.5%的概率上涨。然而，11月13日以来，人民币快速升值1.9%，恒生指数却下跌4.8%、与汇率显著背 离；这是2016年以来12次人民币升值中第3次出现的股汇背离。 人民币升值时，港股盈利、资产的重估效应与外资的回流，或是港股上涨的主因。 1）货币价值重估， 当人民币升值时，港股公司赚取的人民币利润折算成港币时会放大。2）资产重估效应，在港上市地产股 等底层资产以人民币计价，在升值时会面临价值重估。3）全球配置的比较效应，人民币汇率走强多指向 中国基本面具有一定相对优势，这会令全球投资者配置更多中国资产。 （二）人民币升值，港股缘何不 ...

2025 年香港经济表现超预期，全年 GDP 增速有望达 3.2%，连续第三年增长且基本恢复至疫情前水平，前三季度同比增长 3.3%，呈现 "加速上行" 态势，主 要得益于 "物流（G）" 和 "资金流（C）金融项" 的强劲拉动。 从增长动能来看，依据 "HGC 三元流动模型"，资本市场交投活跃推动 "资金流（C）金融项" 拉动 GDP 增长约 1.2 个百分点；美企 "抢进口" 效应及 AI 相关 产品需求带动，"物流（G）" 贡献 1.1 个百分点的增长；"人流（H）" 相关产业正向拉动 0.35 个百分点，但 "资金流（C）地产项" 因建造活动疲弱拖累增长 超 0.3 个百分点。具体而言，2025 年访港旅客量同比增约 12%，零售业自 5 月起恢复正增长；进出口货值同比分别升 13.8%、13.6%，机场客货运量稳步回 升；恒指累计上涨 28.9%，港股 IPO 募资额重回全球榜首，银行保险业景气度提升，但地产市场供需分化，建造业表现疲弱。 展望 2026 年，偏乐观情形下香港 GDP 有望增长 3.0%，"物流（G）" 和 "资金流（C）" 仍将是核心引擎，"人流（H）" 贡献保持稳健。利好因素包括 ...

2016年以来，港股与人民币的正相关关系较为显著；然而，近期人民币快速升值，港股却一度"踟蹰不 前"。股汇联动背后的逻辑、谁是谁的"影子"、未来可能的演绎？供参考。 一、热点思考：人民币与港股，谁是谁的"影子"？ （一）人民币汇率与港股的"羁绊"？正相关关系显著，但近期明显背离 历史回溯来看，人民币与港股有着显著的正相关关系； 但近期人民币快速升值，港股却仍走弱 。2016年 以来，港股与美元兑人民币的负相关悉数高达-0.54；当人民币月涨幅超过1.5%时，恒生指数当月有 93.5%的概率上涨。然而，11月13日以来，人民币快速升值1.9%，恒生指数却下跌4.8%、与汇率显著背 离；这是2016年以来12次人民币升值中第3次出现的股汇背离。 人民币升值时，港股盈利、资产的重估效应与外资的回流，或是港股上涨的主因。 1）货币价值重估， 当人民币升值时，港股公司赚取的人民币利润折算成港币时会放大。2）资产重估效应，在港上市地产股 等底层资产以人民币计价，在升值时会面临价值重估。3）全球配置的比较效应，人民币汇率走强多指向 中国基本面具有一定相对优势，这会令全球投资者配置更多中国资产。 （二）人民币升值，港股缘何不 ...

2026 年 01 月 05 日 人民币与港股，谁是谁的"影子"？ 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 汇率双周报系列之七 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 董易 A0230519110003 dongyi@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 李欣越 A0230524080004 lixy@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 王茂宇 A0230521120001 wangmy2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李欣越 A0230524080004 lixy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2016 年以来，港股与人民币的正相关关系较为显著；然而，近期人民币快速升值，港股却一度 "踟蹰不前"。股汇联动背后的逻辑、谁是谁的"影子"、未来可能的演绎？供 ...

Market Overview - On December 31, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices experienced mixed performance, with a total trading volume of CNY 2.07 trillion, a decrease of approximately CNY 90 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The market showed stability despite more stocks declining than rising, with notable gains in the aerospace, media, real estate, and non-ferrous metals sectors, while telecommunications, agriculture, and electronics faced declines[1] - The total trading volume for the year exceeded CNY 400 trillion, marking a year-on-year growth of over 60%, achieving a historical high[3] Sector Performance - The aerospace sector is rapidly regaining strength, with leading stocks reaching new highs and increasing trading volumes, indicating a sustained upward trend[1] - The non-ferrous metals sector is also performing steadily, supported by historical price increases in precious metals and a weak US dollar, suggesting a potential for long-term growth[1] - The top three sectors for net capital inflow on December 31 were aerospace equipment, military electronics, and advertising marketing, while the semiconductor, components, and photovoltaic equipment sectors saw the largest outflows[4] Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Transport has initiated measures to promote the integration of public transportation data with enterprise data, aiming to enhance efficiency across various sectors, including logistics and green technology[5] - New regulations for green product certification have been introduced, covering 122 product categories and involving over 8,000 certified enterprises, marking a significant shift towards comprehensive regulatory oversight[7] Economic Indicators - The price of live pigs increased by 1.7% month-on-month in late December 2025, reflecting ongoing trends in agricultural pricing[8] - Natural gas consumption in November 2025 was reported at 36.28 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, although total consumption for the first eleven months showed a slight decline of 0.1%[8] Investment Insights - The recent regulatory changes in fund sales fees aim to enhance investor returns by capping service fees for equity funds at 0.4% and for index and bond funds at 0.2%, promoting a shift towards long-term holding[12][14]

本文授权来自《中国民商》 作者：闵晓强 编辑：李 鑫 2025年公募排行榜全部出炉，大约75只主动权益基金实现了全年净值涨幅翻倍。但是，这一年首尾分化严重，也有多只主动权益基金年终负收益，而且是 全年的跌幅超过了10%，其中广发基金有多达6只产品上榜。 这6只产品分别是广发内需增长、广发价值优势、广发价值优选、广发睿铭两年、广发稳健优选六个月持有和广发均衡优选。从它们的现任基金经理来 看，无一例外都是广发基金名将王明旭所管理的产品。目前王明旭管理的产品总共8只，除去上述的6只产品外，还有一只为两人合管产品，另外还有一只 为去年6月中旬成立的次新基金。 近年来，广发基金主动权益阵营群星闪烁，无论是曾经的状元刘格菘还是顶流傅友兴，或者是后起之秀郑澄然，但是未曾想公司的总经理助理、投资管理 部总经理王明旭成为了最短板，同时公司力捧的从新华基金转投而来的刘彬，2025年的业绩也只能说稀松平常而已，同样郑澄然交出的也是勉强及格的成 绩单。 在基金三季报中，王明旭强调："在报告期，本基金一直维持合同约定范围内的上限权益仓位。今年以来，业绩一直持续落后，为了在本年度余下时间净 值有所改善，在行业配置方面，3季度继续对组合结 ...