Demand and Price Trends - Total demand remains stable with no significant slowdown observed, indicating a gradual narrowing of economic fluctuations[2] - Industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 21.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking three consecutive months of profit growth[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth is expected to continue rising due to low base effects, supporting profit margins[4] Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The manufacturing PMI for September is at 49.8, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a broad-based economic recovery[6] - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1, down 0.4 percentage points but still within the expansion zone, reflecting overall stability in the service industry[7] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October is anticipated to provide investment guidance for related industries, particularly regarding the "14th Five-Year Plan"[11] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is expected to face headwinds this year, influenced by stock market gains, tax adjustments, and potential inflationary pressures[14] - Long-term bond yields have recently risen, with the 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level this year, indicating ongoing adjustments in the bond market[13] - The overall sentiment suggests that the bond market is still in a phase of adjustment, with upward risks to yields outweighing downward possibilities[14] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE inflation rate for August is reported at 2.7%, with core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[16] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September is at 52.0, down 1 percentage point, while the services PMI is at 52.9, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy despite slight declines[18] - Market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with projections indicating two rate cuts in 2025, occurring in October and December[19]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Machinery Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for the machinery industry to maintain a stable and positive development trend from 2025 to 2026, with an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% and revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will focus on the science - technology and AI industries, formulating development guidelines for smart terminals and agents, opening up industry scenarios, and providing computing power subsidies. A new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan will be used to supplement project capital [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices have rebounded significantly [2]. - Energy: International oil prices have rebounded [2]. Midstream - Chemical: The polyester operating rate is at a medium level [3]. - Energy: Coal consumption by power plants has remained stable [3]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in second - tier cities have slightly rebounded [4]. - Services: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 2. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Price on 9/29 | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2288.6 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.4 yuan/kg | - 4.77% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 9248.0 yuan/ton | 3.08% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14982.5 yuan/ton | - 1.17% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 19.3 yuan/kg | - 1.28% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | 82271.7 yuan/ton | 2.54% | | | Spot price of zinc | 21618.0 yuan/ton | - 1.48% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 20700.0 yuan/ton | - 0.61% | | | Spot price of nickel | 122050.0 yuan/ton | 0.04% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16856.3 yuan/ton | - 1.14% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of rebar | 3176.0 yuan/ton | 0.27% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 806.7 yuan/ton | - 1.51% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3357.5 yuan/ton | - 1.54% | | | Spot price of glass | 15.4 yuan/square meter | 7.90% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14775.0 yuan/ton | - 0.73% | | | China Plastic City price index | 790.0 | - 0.17% | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 65.7 dollars/barrel | 5.32% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 69.2 dollars/barrel | 4.82% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3828.0 yuan/ton | 0.90% | | | Coal price | 793.0 yuan/ton | 1.02% | | | Spot price of PTA | 4612.5 yuan/ton | - 0.30% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 7345.0 yuan/ton | - 0.14% | | | Spot price of urea | 1621.3 yuan/ton | - 2.04% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real Estate | National cement price index | 135.1 | 0.63% | | | Building materials composite index | 113.3 points | - 1.19% | | | National concrete price index | 91.7 points | - 0.01% | [36]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent financial troubles of Wang Jianlin, the former richest man in China and chairman of Wanda Group, highlighting the contrast between his past ambitions and current challenges [1] - Wang Jianlin's situation reflects the broader struggles faced by a generation of entrepreneurs, emphasizing the anxiety and loneliness behind their success [2] Group 2 - The article suggests that many businesses face difficulties due to aggressive expansion strategies, which often lead to financial instability [3][4][6] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a sustainable growth pace rather than succumbing to the pressures of rapid scaling [8][11] Group 3 - Strategic decision-making is crucial for the survival of a business, with Wang Jianlin's challenges linked to a series of aggressive strategic choices that may have seemed rational at the time [13][14] - The consequences of strategic decisions often manifest years later, indicating that today's challenges may stem from past choices [13][15] Group 4 - The article notes that entrepreneurs must remain sensitive to changing market conditions, as failure to adapt can lead to significant setbacks [16][18] - It highlights that the rules of business can change abruptly, and what was once a successful strategy may become a liability [18][19] Group 5 - The piece advocates for a more compassionate view of temporary failures in the business world, recognizing the responsibilities entrepreneurs bear for their employees and stakeholders [20][21] - It calls for a culture that respects both successful and struggling entrepreneurs, emphasizing the importance of resilience and the willingness to take risks [21][22]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant disparity in investment outcomes among investors who employed a systematic investment strategy in index funds, with over 60% of investors in the CSI 300 index experiencing losses, averaging an 8.7% decline, while a different group achieved a 12% annualized return [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Errors - Investors commonly made two critical mistakes: selecting the wrong assets and mismanaging investment timing [1][3]. - Many investors fell into the "chasing hot spots" trap, investing in high-volatility sectors like renewable energy and semiconductors, which led to substantial losses [3][4]. - For instance, a renewable energy index fund saw its net value drop from 2.5 yuan in September 2022 to 1.8 yuan in August 2025, resulting in an 11% loss for consistent investors [3][4]. Group 2: Comparison of Investment Outcomes - Broad-based index funds, such as the CSI 300, emerged as the "winners" in systematic investment strategies, yielding a 5.2% annualized return despite market downturns [4][10]. - In contrast, thematic funds averaged a -3.8% return during the same period, underscoring the importance of asset selection [4][10]. Group 3: Valuation Considerations - A common error among investors was neglecting valuation, leading to blind investments without considering price rationality [6][7]. - The CSI 300 index experienced significant valuation fluctuations, with its price-to-earnings ratio ranging from 12 to 15 during the investment period, affecting returns based on timing of investments [6][7]. - An investor who adjusted their investment based on valuation metrics achieved a 14% profit, while another who did not lost 5% [6][10]. Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To enhance investment outcomes, investors should prioritize selecting "evergreen" assets and avoid sectors with high cyclicality or rapid technological changes [4][12]. - Implementing a dynamic investment strategy based on valuation metrics can significantly reduce average costs and improve returns [7][10]. - Investors are advised to regularly assess their investment choices and adjust their strategies according to market conditions and asset valuations [12].

私募排排网最新调查数据显示，超65%的受访私募选择重仓或满仓过节，仅有不到17%保持低仓位。可 见，坚定"在场"已成私募共识。不过，上海证券报记者采访获悉，对于即将到来的四季度，部分私募选 择"切高就低"，拥抱更具性价比的"冷门行业"，部分私募则认为科技板块在"小憩"后将再度成为市场主 线，有成长空间才有上涨机会。 乐观预期：私募坚定"在场" 据私募排排网统计，65.38%的受访私募倾向于重仓或满仓过节（仓位超过70%），认为假期外围市场及 消息面扰动有限；17.31%的受访私募选择保持五到七成仓位过节，认为相较不确定性因素，市场个股 机会更值得持有。另外，仅有不到17%的受访私募选择保持五成以下仓位过节。 与此同时，9月以来私募仓位继续上行。 私募排排网最新数据显示，截至9月19日，股票私募仓位指数为78.41%，较上一周（9月12日）上升0.37 个百分点，实现连续两周上行。至此，在经历持续加仓后，股票私募仓位指数已到达今年以来最高水 平。 头部私募加仓步伐显然更快。据统计，截至9月19日，管理规模在100亿元以上和管理规模在50亿元至 100亿元之间的股票私募仓位指数分别为79.95%和85.56%。其 ...

Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook is optimistic for cyclical sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals, driven by multiple factors including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, monetary policy shifts, and improved domestic macroeconomic expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with leading companies' stock prices doubling, but there is a mismatch between current valuations and fundamentals [2][3]. - The core logic for non-ferrous metals includes their role as globally priced commodities, entering a long-term supply-tight price upcycle due to sustained demand and supply constraints [3]. - Factors such as ongoing global manufacturing investment cycles, strategic metal resource demand, and monetary expansion are expected to drive further demand for non-ferrous metals [3]. Group 2: Strategic Asset Allocation - The investment strategy emphasizes a strategic allocation to cyclical assets, focusing on sectors with strong demand-side logic [4]. - The first tier of allocation includes industrial metals, minor metals, and precious metals, with copper and aluminum highlighted for their robust long-term demand and profitability [5]. - The second tier focuses on traditional midstream cyclical leaders like chemicals, steel, coal, and financial sectors, which have low valuations and maintain decent return on equity [6]. - The third tier includes post-cyclical sectors such as general machinery and real estate, which may require time to realize their potential as the macroeconomic cycle progresses [6].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 28 Sep 2025 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为A股将延续盘整以消化前期涨幅，港股补涨后短期或跟随进入震荡阶段。本周A股上证综指震荡微涨 0.2%，创业板指冲高回落仍录得2%的周涨幅；港股方面，恒生指数和恒生科技全周下跌1.6%。 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 国庆前后交投趋弱，十五五预期利好低位蓝筹配置 Weaker Trading Around National Day; 15th Five-Year Plan Expectations Favor Low-Valued Blue Chips 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com • 情绪边际转弱：阿里云栖大会一度继续提振市场信心，但在股价连续大涨后，市场情绪已见顶回落。 • 汇 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 4.50% on September 18, 2025, marking the first reduction since December 2024, primarily following the actions of the Federal Reserve [4][6] - The cut is a response to global economic conditions, particularly the increase in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.3% and a decrease in CPI to 2.9%, indicating economic slowdown [4][6] - The interest rate reduction is expected to lower financing costs for businesses and residents, stimulating economic activity and consumer spending [6][9] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.78%, with technology stocks, particularly Baidu, gaining over 15% [3][6] - The reduction in interest rates is anticipated to attract both overseas and mainland Chinese capital into the Hong Kong stock market, creating a resonance effect [3][10] - Real estate is expected to be one of the most directly benefited sectors, as lower mortgage rates will stimulate housing demand [8][9] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The interest rate cut is seen as a measure to maintain the stability of the Hong Kong dollar and the orderly operation of the monetary market, reinforcing Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [10][12] - The reduction in financing costs is likely to enhance the business environment, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, and increase consumer disposable income, benefiting sectors like retail and dining [9][10] - The current economic climate presents a favorable opportunity for individuals looking to establish or expand businesses in Hong Kong, as lower borrowing costs can facilitate investment [12][21] Group 4: Identity and Investment Opportunities - The interest rate environment creates a window for individuals seeking to apply for Hong Kong identity, as reduced financing costs lower the economic burden of settling in Hong Kong [14][16] - Various pathways for obtaining Hong Kong identity, such as the High Talent Scheme and the Quality Migrant Admission Scheme, are highlighted as advantageous during this period of lower interest rates [18][19] - The overall market liquidity improvement is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Hong Kong assets, providing diverse investment opportunities for residents [13][21]

高频｜黑色系商品领跌，"金九"成色如何？ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.09.27 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 许帆 xufan@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《信用 | 反内卷后怎么看煤炭和钢铁 债？》 2025-09-25 2. 《期货｜如何参与曲线形态套利？》 2025-09-23 3. 《信用 | 加税后如何观察信用利差？》 2025-09-22 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ | 1 | 地产销售：一线城市形成支撑 4 | | --- | --- | | 2 | 投资：商品价格大多上行 7 | | 3 | 生产：开工率表现分化 9 | | 4 | 消费：出行动能偏强 10 | | 5 | 出口：SCFI 下行，BDI 上行 11 | | 6 | 物价：猪肉价格下行、菜价上行，油价上行 11 | | 7 | 风险提示 12 | | 图 1： 主要高频指标周度跟踪 4 | | --- | | 图 2： 全国及典 ...