Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to see the exit of over 20-year-old outdated capacities, which could accelerate the recovery of the refining sector. The EIA has adjusted its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to an average of $69 and $58 per barrel, respectively [4][10]. - Demand for oil is projected to increase by 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day this year, with a notable decline in demand in Q2 2025. The IEA and OPEC have also provided similar forecasts for global oil demand growth [4][15]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the polyester sector, driven by supply-demand dynamics and the gradual exit of outdated capacities [21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to $69.28 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. The WTI price also fell by 1.62% to $67.34 per barrel [25]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 7 to 544, although this represents a year-on-year decrease of 42 rigs [39]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $14.50 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread decreased to $21.14 per barrel [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as oil prices adjust downward, and the competitive landscape for leading refining companies is expected to benefit from the exit of overseas refineries and low domestic refining rates [21]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability is on the rise, while profits from polyester filament yarn have declined. The report notes that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes [4][21]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as the industry is expected to gradually improve [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and China Petroleum, as well as upstream exploration and production companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation [21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Supported by the macro "anti-involution" theme, the ethylene glycol price is running strongly under supply-side disturbances. Although the demand shows no sign of improvement, the supply side has frequent accidents, leading to a stronger near-term pattern of ethylene glycol, delaying the inventory accumulation expectation again. With low inventory levels, the price remains prone to rise and difficult to fall. Before the macro narrative materializes, it is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Content Summary by Section Polyester Price Range Forecast - **Price Range**: The monthly price ranges are 4000 - 4600 for ethylene glycol, 6400 - 7300 for PX, 4400 - 5300 for PTA, and 5700 - 6400 for bottle chips [2]. - **Volatility**: The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 15.94% for ethylene glycol, 21.59% for PX, 19.17% for PTA, and 15.85% for bottle chips. Their historical percentiles (3 - year) are 27.7%, 67.9%, 48.2%, and 47.9% respectively [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, the strategies include shorting ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 4400 - 4500, buying put options (EG2509P4250) and selling call options (EG2509C4500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 10 - 15 and 35 - 60 respectively [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low, to prevent the rise of ethylene glycol price, strategies are to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 4200 - 4250, sell put options (EG2509P4250) with a 75% hedging ratio at 25 - 50 [2]. Core Contradiction Macro "anti - involution" theme supports the strong operation of ethylene glycol price under supply - side disturbances. Demand is weak, but supply - side accidents make the near - term pattern stronger, delaying inventory accumulation and keeping the price easy to rise and hard to fall in the short term [3]. 利多解读 The document does not provide specific content for this part. 利空解读 Long - filament manufacturers are rumored to have a 10% production cut plan, which is expected to be partially implemented, affecting the total polyester load by 1 - 2% [5]. Supply - side News - Satellite Petrochemical's first line restart is postponed from mid - August, reducing the production forecast for August - September [7]. - Three ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a total capacity of 1.7 million tons/year have restart problems due to infrastructure issues, and the restart time is undetermined. The import volume in August is expected to decrease [7]. Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: On July 18, 2025, compared with the previous day and week, prices of various products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol showed different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil was at $69.7/barrel, up $0.1 from the previous day and down $0.7 from the previous week [8]. - **Spread Changes**: Spreads such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, and EG1 - 5 also had corresponding changes. For example, the PX1 - 5 month spread was 52 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day and 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. Processing Fee and Sales Rate - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees of products like gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, and bottle chips showed different degrees of change. For example, the bottle chip processing fee was 377 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous day and 63 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Sales Rates**: Sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips increased. For example, the polyester filament sales rate was 58.2%, up 20% from the previous day and 22.9% from the previous week [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Methanol - The inland market's maintenance has reached its peak, and there is an expectation of increased production in late July. The port market faces dual pressures: an expected arrival of 1.25 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which will weaken demand. The port will continue to accumulate inventory from July to August, but the current absolute inventory is relatively low year - on - year, with limited upside and downside space, suggesting range - bound operations [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The main logic is the weakening downstream market and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, with a possible supply surplus in the second half of the year. The EIA weekly report shows that Cushing inventory reached its highest level since June, and US distillate demand slightly declined, although crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels. In the short term, after the oil price decline, there is a high probability of a stalemate between bulls and bears. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Short - term downward pressure exists due to factors such as the postponement of some domestic device maintenance plans and the recovery of overseas supply. However, considering the expected commissioning of new PTA devices, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain tight, and there is support at low levels [31]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with a weakening basis. The absolute price is under pressure. Strategies include range - bound operations, short - selling above 4800, and other operations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the EGO9 contract and pay attention to the pressure around 4400 [31]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with limited driving forces. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [31]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts and downstream follow - up [31]. Polyolefins - From a supply - demand perspective, PP maintenance is gradually peaking, and PE maintenance in the second half of the month is still relatively high. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, with static supply and demand both declining, inventory accumulating, and apparent demand weakening. Dynamically, PE import offers are still scarce, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in late July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong driving forces, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, take profit when LP is around 250 [35]. Urea - The futures price has recently declined. The short - term driving forces for the futures price mainly come from the seasonal weakening of demand and the increasing supply pressure, with export expectations providing partial support for large - granular urea. Agricultural demand has ended, leading to a decline in the spot trading atmosphere, which in turn drags down the futures sentiment. The supply side has a high daily output, and although maintenance has increased, the total supply is abundant, and the weak new order transactions amplify the pessimistic atmosphere. Exports only support large - granular urea locally and have limited impact on small - granular urea. It is expected that the futures price may still face pressure in the short term [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July, but due to high import expectations and relatively high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. Affected by weak oil prices and the styrene price, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the main contract BZ2603 and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [46]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with increasing port inventory and short - term pressure on the basis. It is under short - term pressure. Strategies include short - selling the EB08 contract, selling call options with an exercise price above 7500, and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, MA2601 closed at 2434, MA2509 at 2367, with a MA91 spread of - 67 and a Taicang basis of 11. Compared with July 15, most prices and spreads showed certain changes [2]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 35.234% (a decrease of 1.28% from the previous value), port inventory was 790,000 tons (an increase of 9.92%), and social inventory was 114.3% (an increase of 6.20%) [3]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 72.5% (a decrease of 4.11% from the previous value), the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate was 71.1% (an increase of 11.12%), and the operating rates of various downstream devices also showed different changes [4]. Crude Oil - **EIA Weekly Data (as of July 11, 2025)**: US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate was 93.9%, crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, and other data also showed corresponding changes [7]. - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, Brent was at $68.77 per barrel, WTI at $66.68 per barrel, and various price spreads also changed compared with July 16 [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: Various product prices in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different changes on July 16 compared with July 15, and price spreads also changed accordingly [31]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different degrees of change on a weekly basis [31]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509, as well as various price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [35]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends, and the operating rates of their devices and downstream industries also changed [35]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of various urea products and related price spreads and basis values showed certain changes compared with July 15 [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea showed different trends, with the factory - level inventory decreasing by 7.46% on a weekly basis [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products, as well as price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [46]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in the East China port showed different trends, and the operating rates of related industries also changed [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, option strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes an analysis of the underlying asset's market, research on option factors, and option strategy recommendations [8]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price and Volume Changes**: The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, and others [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - **PCR Indicators**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various option varieties are presented. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying asset's market and the turning point of the underlying asset's market, respectively [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - **Pressure and Support Points**: The pressure points, support points, and their offsets, as well as the maximum open interests of call and put options, are provided for each option variety. These points are determined based on the strike prices with the maximum open interests of call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - **Volatility Metrics**: The report includes the at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, change in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatilities, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities for each option variety [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - Crude Oil - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ increased oil supply in July, and the US supply rebounded with rising oil prices [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Crude oil prices showed a short - term weak market trend, rising first and then falling [7]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating increasing short - term bearish power, with a pressure level of 500 and a support level of 510 [7]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [7]. 3.5.2 Energy - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Fundamentals**: Global supply divergence decreased, but there were uncertainties in demand, and PDH profit recovery might support the operating rate [9]. - **Market Analysis**: LPG showed a short - term bearish market trend, with wide - range fluctuations followed by a decline [9]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating increasing bearish power, with a pressure level of 4500 and a support level of 3700 [9]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.3 Alcohols - Methanol - **Fundamentals**: Domestic methanol production started to recover, and port inventory increased [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Methanol showed a short - term narrow - range oscillating trend [9]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility was below the historical mean, the open interest PCR was around 0.80, indicating a weak - oscillating market, with a pressure level of 2950 and a support level of 2200 [9]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.4 Alcohols - Ethylene Glycol - **Fundamentals**: Port inventory increased, and the destocking process would slow down [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Ethylene glycol showed a weak - bearish oscillating trend with pressure above [10]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean, the open interest PCR was around 0.70, indicating a weak trend, with a pressure level of 4350 and a support level of 4300 [10]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - volatility strategy; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.5 Polyolefins - Polypropylene - **Fundamentals**: PP trade inventory increased, and port inventory decreased [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Polypropylene showed a weak trend with bearish pressure above [10]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean, the open interest PCR decreased below 0.80, indicating a weakening trend, with a pressure level of 7500 and a support level of 6800 [10]. - **Strategies**: For spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.6 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The price of natural rubber rebounded, but downstream demand did not change significantly [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Rubber showed a low - level consolidation trend [11]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, with a pressure level of 15000 and a support level of 13000 [11]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [11]. 3.5.7 Polyesters - PTA - **Fundamentals**: PTA load increased, and the maintenance season ended [12]. - **Market Analysis**: PTA showed a weak trend with pressure above [12]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weakening trend, with a pressure level of 5000 and a support level of 3800 [12]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.5.8 Alkalis - Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity changed slightly [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Caustic soda showed a short - term bullish trend [13]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean, the open interest PCR was around 0.80, with a pressure level of 3400 and a support level of 2200 [13]. - **Strategies**: For spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.9 Alkalis - Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash inventory increased, and enterprise shipments slowed down [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Soda ash showed a low - level consolidation trend with a bullish bias [13]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a weak - oscillating market, with a pressure level of 2080 and a support level of 1100 [13]. - **Strategies**: For direction, construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options; for volatility, construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [13]. 3.5.10 Urea - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand difference decreased, and inventory declined. Positive export news boosted the market [14]. - **Market Analysis**: Urea showed an oscillating trend under bearish pressure [14]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility was below the historical mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, with a pressure level of 1900 and a support level of 1700 [14]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints Urea - The main logic for the stabilization of the urea futures market is the improved demand - side expectations, but the high - supply pressure still limits the rebound height. Future demand improvement expectations, along with partial device overhauls, support the futures price [5]. Polyolefin - For PP and PE, there is a lack of strong driving forces. The static situation shows a double - decline in supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and weak apparent demand. However, there are expectations of demand improvement for PE in late July. Suggested strategies include range - bound operations for both PP and PE, and taking profit when the LP spread reaches around 250 [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - Different products in the polyester industry chain have different outlooks. PX may be boosted in the short - term, PTA is expected to be supported in the short - term, MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, short - fiber has limited driving forces, and bottle - chip has expectations of supply - demand improvement [48]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to expectations of marginal supply contraction and supply uncertainties caused by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band - trading strategy [52]. Methanol - The inland methanol market is expected to see an increase in production in late July. The port market faces pressure from expected arrivals and planned MTO overhauls, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations [73]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, there is limited supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals, but high profits stimulate high production. It is recommended that previous long - position holders temporarily exit and wait and see. For PVC, the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in July, but its own driving force is limited. For styrene, the supply - demand is marginally repaired, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak. Short - term price support may come from the overall positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market [86]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On July 17, the 01 contract closed at 1718 yuan/ton (up 0.47% from July 16), the 05 contract at 1730 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), the 09 contract at 1743 yuan/ton (up 0.58%), and the methanol - main contract at 2373 yuan/ton (up 0.25%) [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton on July 17 (up 29.41% from July 16), the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was - 13 yuan/ton (down 116.67%), and the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was 25 yuan/ton (up 8.70%) [2]. - **Main Positions**: On July 17, the long - position of the top 20 was 110750 (down 1.28% from July 16), the short - position of the top 20 was 123632 (up 1.78%), and the long - to - short ratio was 0.90 (down 3.00%) [3]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, with only slight changes in a few items such as动力煤港口(秦皇岛) (up 0.32%) and合成氨(山东) (down 0.33%) [4]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed minor fluctuations, with some prices decreasing slightly [4]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production decreased slightly on July 18 compared to July 17. Weekly data showed a decrease in domestic urea production, an increase in device overhaul losses, a decrease in factory inventory, and an increase in port inventory [5]. Polyolefin - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 17, L2601 closed at 7235 yuan/ton (up 0.14% from July 16), L2509 at 7215 yuan/ton (up 0.01%), PP2601 at 7016 yuan/ton (up 0.11%), and PP2509 at 7020 yuan/ton (up 0.10%). Some spot prices remained unchanged [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories increased, and the operating rates of some devices and downstream industries decreased [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased slightly. Downstream polyester product prices and cash - flows showed various changes, with some prices rising and some cash - flows changing significantly [48]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different segments in the polyester industry chain showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [48]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 18, Brent crude oil was at 69.52 US dollars/barrel (up 1.46% from July 17), WTI at 67.55 US dollars/barrel (up 0.01%), and there were also changes in various price spreads [52]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Logic**: Supply decreased due to factors such as a decline in US crude oil inventories and production cuts in the Iraqi Kurdish region. Market focus has shifted to supply - side risks [52]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, MA2601 closed at 2438 yuan/ton (up 0.16% from July 16), MA2509 at 2373 yuan/ton (up 0.25%), and there were changes in various regional price spreads [73]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased slightly, while port and social inventories increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries also changed [73]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: For PVC and caustic soda, futures and spot prices showed minor changes, and there were also changes in price spreads [76]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and its downstream industries changed, and inventory levels also showed different trends [79][80][81]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, the price of pure benzene and styrene and their related price spreads changed. For example, the price of benzene - ethylene in the East China spot market decreased [85]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates showed different trends, with some operating rates decreasing [85][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate strongly (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 1, PR view score: 1) [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry chain is currently facing weak demand and is mainly driven by cost. PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain has tilted towards the raw material link again [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - On July 17, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $67.54 per barrel, up 1.75%; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.52 per barrel, up 1.46% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $574.75 per ton, down 1.14%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $692.00 per ton, down 1.91% [1] - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $833.00 per ton, down 0.16%; CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,714 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of PTA internal market was 4,728 yuan per ton, up 0.21%; the external market was $620.00 per ton, down 0.16% [1] - CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,742 yuan per ton, up 0.39%; CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,902 yuan per ton, up 0.27% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,935 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; in South China was 6,010 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as DTY, POY, and short - fiber showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - On July 17, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.32%, down 0.66%; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 87.15%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.02%, down 1.10% [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 40.00%, down 2.00%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber was 53.00%, up 9.00%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips was 53.00%, down 10.00% [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal; Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Market Analysis - International crude oil prices showed an interval fluctuation. Although there was a short - term rebound, the supply - demand situation was weak. PTA will have new device put into production in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support [2] - The market is trading on the maintenance expectation of PTA under low processing fees. The downstream polyester operating rate is still higher than that of last year, and the spot basis has strengthened. However, due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season on the demand side, it is difficult to boost prices [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was stable at 5,900 - 6,000 yuan per ton. The supply side's quotations were mixed, with low operating rates but sufficient market supply. Downstream terminal buying enthusiasm was average, and market sentiment was cautious [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry has certain demand resilience in 2025, but the growth height is limited. The downstream terminal demand is affected by the macro - situation, and the foreign demand faces challenges. The cost - side crude oil supply and demand tend to be in surplus, while PXN has strong support. PTA is in an expansion cycle with compressed industrial profits, and MEG has low - inventory and high - valuation characteristics, facing the pressure of inventory accumulation [1][5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **PX**: In the first half of 2025, the PX price fluctuated widely, and the absolute price mainly followed the trend of crude oil [8]. - **PTA**: In the first half of 2025, the PTA price also fluctuated widely following the crude oil [12]. - **MEG**: The MEG price was affected by crude oil, and its center of gravity moved downward [16]. 3.2 Polyester Demand - **Production and Demand Forecast**: It is estimated that the polyester production in 2025 will be about 78.28 million tons, with a demand growth rate of about 6%. The production in the first half of the year was about 39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8%. The second - half demand will follow the seasonal pattern, but the overall height is limited due to the over - export in the first half [19]. - **New Capacity**: The planned new polyester capacity in 2025 is 6.3 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of about 8%. The new capacity in the first half of the year was 2.6 million tons, and 3.7 million tons are planned to be put into production in the second half. Bottle - chip production accounts for a large proportion, and the short - fiber production has little increase [22]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Except for bottle - chips, the inventory pressure of filament and short - fiber is not large. The polyester comprehensive profit in the first half of 2025 was low, with filament in a small - profit state, short - fiber's profit compressed in the off - season, and bottle - chips in a loss state. In the second half, the bottle - chip over - supply pattern will intensify, while the short - fiber profit may rise [25][28]. 3.3 Terminal Demand - In the first half of 2025, the domestic demand showed the characteristic of "peak season not prosperous". The downstream factories have low expectations and low enthusiasm for stockpiling. The domestic demand may be improved by policies, but the foreign orders may decrease in the second half [31][34]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Naphtha and Gasoline**: In the first half of 2025, the naphtha spread was at a high level, and it will remain strong in the second half. The gasoline cracking profit will maintain a neutral level, with obvious differentiation between peak and off - seasons [38]. - **PX Capacity and Supply**: Since 2024, PX has entered the end of the expansion cycle. In 2025, the new capacity is expected to be 3 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of about 5%. The new supply growth rate is only 1%, and the supply depends on the load of existing devices and imports. The PX valuation has strong support below, and the import volume is expected to increase in the second half [39][47][49]. - **PX Inventory**: In the first half of 2025, PX was in a state of destocking, with a destocking volume of about 900,000 tons. In the second half, there will be a certain supply - demand gap, and the destocking volume is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 tons [52][53]. 3.5 PTA - **Capacity and Supply**: In 2025, the PTA capacity will continue to expand, with an expected new capacity of 8.7 million tons. The new supply pressure is large, with an average new production growth rate of 11%. The supply pressure will intensify after the commissioning of Honggang Petrochemical and Sanfangxiang in the middle of the year. The export volume has decreased, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large in the second half [56][59][69]. 3.6 MEG - **Capacity and Supply**: The MEG capacity growth rate has declined. In 2025, the planned new capacity is 1.6 million tons, and the new production growth rate is about 2.7%. The supply is expected to remain at a high level in the second half, and attention should be paid to the changes in existing devices [72][75]. - **Profit and Inventory**: The MEG profit in the second half of 2025 will face certain pressure. The import volume is expected to increase. The current inventory is at a low level, and it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage in the third quarter [78][81][84]. 3.7 Trading Opportunities Outlook in the Middle of 2025 - **PX**: The PX price mainly follows the crude oil, with an absolute price range of 6,000 - 7,500 yuan/ton. Consider long - position opportunities at low levels, and 9 - 1 positive spreads or long - PXN at low levels [85]. - **PTA**: The PTA price follows the crude oil, with an absolute price range of 4,000 - 5,300 yuan/ton. The processing fee should be short - sold at high levels, and 9 - 1 positive spreads can be tried [86]. - **MEG**: The MEG price is expected to run weakly in the range of 3,800 - 4,600 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels, and pay attention to the long - TA and short - EG positions [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: With reduced maintenance of existing plants and upcoming new capacity, while the load of downstream polyester and end - users is falling, the spot processing fee of PTA is at a low level within the year, and the supply - demand contradiction is expanding, showing a weak fluctuation [3]. - MEG: The supply at home and abroad is lower than expected, and the port inventory is not high, so the futures price is relatively strong. However, due to the poor performance of polyester and end - users, the upside space is limited [3]. - Short - fiber: The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. After the plant reduction, the processing fee has been repaired. Currently, it is difficult for the processing fee to rise further during the off - season of demand [3]. - Bottle - chip: The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Since the end of June, under the background of production reduction, the processing fee has improved. If the supply side does not narrow further, it may be difficult for the bottle - chip processing fee to increase again [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PTA - Cost - end: Recently, Fuhua's 1.6 million - ton plant is under maintenance, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load with postponed maintenance. Shandong Weilian's 1 - million - ton plant is planned to restart in late July, and Tianjin Petrochemical is expected to have maintenance in July. FJDH is expected to have maintenance in September. The Asian PX load hovers around 73% - 74%. Due to the rigid demand support of PTA, the processing margin of PX in the medium - and short - term processes is relatively good, with PX - N around $250/ton [9]. - Supply: Recent maintenance mainly involves Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plants, both of which are shut down in conjunction with upstream PX plants and are expected to restart in August. Yisheng Hainan will stop for transformation on August 1st for three months. There will be fewer plants in need of maintenance later. The new plant of Sanfangxiang has been commissioned, and it is expected to start one production line first. Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant will be put into operation in October, and the PTA supply is expected to increase significantly [9]. - Demand: Under the pressure of poor demand and high inventory of grey fabrics, the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing machines have been continuously decreasing, currently at 56% and 61% respectively, lower than the same period in the previous two years. The current overall polyester load is around 88.5%. As of the week of July 10th, the inventories of POY, FDY, and DTY were 24.2, 24.7, and 29.4 days respectively. The cash flows of short - fiber and bottle - chip have improved under the support of partial plant reduction, and it is unlikely to further reduce the load significantly. However, the cash flows of filament POY and FDY have continued to decline, and recently, major filament factories have decided to start a new round of significant production reduction, which is currently being implemented [8][10]. - Processing Fee: The PTA industry is in an overall loss, the spot processing fee has narrowed to the low level of 216 yuan/ton within the year, and the 09 - contract processing fee on the futures market has dropped to around 300 yuan/ton, with limited room for improvement [9]. MEG - Supply: Due to the improved profit of coal - based ethylene glycol, the enthusiasm for plant operation after maintenance is high, and the current coal - based load has reached the relatively high range of 73%. The load of integrated plants is lower than expected. For example, Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton plant was originally planned to restart in mid - August but may be postponed due to the maintenance of the cracking plant. In addition, the ethylene glycol load of Zhejiang Petrochemical has unexpectedly decreased. In the overseas market, several Saudi plants were shut down due to power problems, involving a capacity of 1.7 million tons, and the recent restart has been difficult, which may affect the ethylene glycol arrival volume in August. Singapore Shell's 900,000 - ton plant is also planned to start maintenance in mid - August, affecting the import volume in August. Recently, the port inventory has been running below 500,000 tons, and the visible inventory is not high [11]. - Cost: The profit of non - coal - based MEG shows differentiation. The production loss of naphtha - based MEG is $106/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based MEG has improved to - $81/ton. Meanwhile, the port coal price is still hovering at a low level, and domestic coal - based ethylene glycol enterprises have a strong production willingness [11]. - Demand: Similar to PTA, under the pressure of poor demand and high inventory of grey fabrics, the demand is expected to weaken [11]. Short - fiber - Raw Materials: The supply of PTA is significantly increasing with reduced maintenance scale and new capacity, while the supply of ethylene glycol at home and abroad has unexpectedly narrowed, and the low port inventory provides some support, making it relatively strong [12]. - Processing Fee: Currently, the short - fiber operating rate is maintained at around 93%. In the week of July 17th, the short - fiber factory's equity inventory was 8 days, and the physical inventory was 15.5 days. The spot processing fee is around 1,100 yuan/ton. Downstream, due to the hot weather and weak demand, the average operating rate of pure - polyester yarn factories has dropped to 72.4%, the finished - product inventory of yarn factories is 23 days, up from last week, and the raw - material inventory is 7.5 days. Currently, during the domestic off - season of demand and lack of international orders, yarn factories have a weak purchasing willingness. Recently, the short - fiber processing fee is acceptable, and the production - reduction intensity may be limited [12]. Bottle - chip - Demand: From January to June, the cumulative output of soft drinks was 93.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [12]. - Supply: Since late June, Huarun's three plants in Jiangyin, Changzhou, and Zhuhai have all reduced production by 20%, Hainan Yisheng's 1.25 - million - ton plant has been under maintenance, and Chongqing Wankai's 600,000 - ton plant has been under maintenance, with a total production capacity of 2.51 million tons involved [12]. - Processing Fee: The bottle - chip spot processing fee has risen from less than 200 yuan/ton in mid - June to around 400 yuan/ton. With the alleviation of supply pressure, the bottle - chip processing fee has improved in the short term. If the supply side does not narrow further, the upside space of the processing fee is also limited [12]. Market Data - PTA: The PTA processing fee is 217 yuan/ton, and the PX - N spread is $253/ton on July 16th [21][23]. - MEG: As of July 17th, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang ethylene glycol port inventory is 494,000 tons, the MEG factory inventory in June is 309,000 tons, and the MEG raw - material inventory of polyester factories in mid - July is 12.5 days. From January to May 2025, the cumulative MEG import was 3.2277 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25% [33][37]. - Polyester Products: On July 9th and July 16th, 2025, the cash flows of filament POY were 136.66 and 12.85 respectively; the cash flows of filament FDY were - 88.34 and - 212.15 respectively; the cash flows of filament DTY were 50.00 and 100.00 respectively; the short - fiber spot processing fees were 1,185.21 and - 1,085.21 respectively; the bottle - chip spot processing fees were 437.89 and 426.24 respectively [43]. - Textile and Apparel Exports: From January to June 2025, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was $143.98 billion, including $70.52 billion in textile exports, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and $73.46 billion in clothing exports, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In June, textile and apparel exports decreased year - on - year due to weak overseas demand and tariff impacts [66].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PTA shows strength with supply contraction and warm commodity sentiment, but its spot market is becoming looser, and the actual polyester output hits a new high. Polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and bottle chips and short - fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle in July. Northeast PX plant and Zhejiang reform device maintenance are postponed [2] - For ethylene glycol, coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment warms up, but the later arrival volume is large. Polyester production and sales weaken, and polyester enters the maintenance cycle. The sharp rise in polyester prices shrinks downstream weaving profits and reduces terminal load, which is a negative impact on the market [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price drops from 518.2 yuan/barrel on July 15th to 517.4 yuan/barrel on July 16th; PTA - SC rises from 930.2 yuan/ton to 946.0 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increases from 1.2470 to 1.2516; CFR China PX drops from 838 to 834; PX - naphtha spread rises from 241 to 250 [2] - PTA's main futures price rises from 4696 yuan/ton to 4706 yuan/ton, spot price from 4715 yuan/ton to 4720 yuan/ton, spot processing fee from 176.7 yuan/ton to 211.5 yuan/ton, and disk processing fee from 172.7 yuan/ton to 202.5 yuan/ton. PTA's main basis rises from 9 to 11, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts decreases from 41840 to 40760 [2] - MEG's main futures price rises from 4322 yuan/ton to 4351 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha from (105.84) yuan/ton to (105.03) yuan/ton, MEG inner - market price drops from 4408 to 4400, and the main basis drops from 72 to 70 [2] Industry Chain Start - up - PX start - up rate remains at 78.98%, PTA start - up rate at 80.59%, MEG start - up rate rises from 54.86% to 56.65%, and polyester load remains at 87.15% [2] Polyester Product Data - In polyester filament, POY150D/48F price drops from 6590 to 6570, POY cash flow from (168) to (190); FDY150D/96F price remains at 6815, FDY cash flow from (443) to (445); DTY150D/48F price remains at 7890, DTY cash flow from (68) to (70). Filament production and sales rise from 36% to 41% [2] - In polyester staple fiber, 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple price remains at 6680, staple fiber cash flow from 272 to 270, and short - fiber production and sales rise from 40% to 44% [2] - In polyester chips, semi - bright chip price drops from 5785 to 5770, chip cash flow from (73) to (90), and chip production and sales rise from 32% to 63% [2] Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China restarts after parking for maintenance around May 6th, and a 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China stops for maintenance recently, expected to last about 10 days [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report dated July 17, 2025, covering various energy and chemical options including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc [2][3] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of multiple underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc [4] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report presents the volume and open interest PCR data of various options, along with their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning point of the market [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various options are analyzed based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility data of various options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, as well as the difference between implied and historical volatility [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Options Energy Options Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: OPEC+ increased oil supply in July, and US shale oil production recovered. The short - term market is weak [8] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR indicates increasing short - selling power, pressure level is 500, and support level is 510 [8] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] LPG - Fundamental analysis: Global supply divergence decreases, demand from the blending market is uncertain, and PDH profit has recovered [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates increasing short - selling power, pressure level is 5100, and support level is 4000 [10] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Alcohol Options Methanol - Fundamental analysis: Domestic methanol production is expected to increase after maintenance, and port inventory is accumulating [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is below the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates a weak - oscillating market, pressure level is 2950, and support level is 2200 [10] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking process will slow down [11] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, pressure level is 4350, and support level is 4300 [11] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a volatility - selling strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polyolefin Options Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis: PP trade inventory is accumulating, and port inventory is decreasing [11] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, pressure level is 7500, and support level is 6800 [11] - Strategy recommendations: Use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber Options Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The price of natural rubber has rebounded, but downstream demand is weak [12] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR is below 0.6, pressure level is 15000, and support level is 13000 [12] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility [12] Polyester Options PTA - Fundamental analysis: PTA production load has increased, and the maintenance season is over [13] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR is below 0.8, pressure level is 5000, and support level is 3800 [13] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility [13] Alkali Chemical Options Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has slightly decreased [14] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR is around 0.8, pressure level is 3400, and support level is 2200 [14] - Strategy recommendations: Use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: Domestic soda ash inventory has accumulated, and enterprise shipments have slowed down [14] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR is below 0.5, pressure level is 2080, and support level is 1100 [14] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a bearish spread strategy for direction, a bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Urea Options - Fundamental analysis: The supply - demand gap has decreased, and the market has strengthened after a short - term decline [15] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is below the historical mean, open interest PCR is below 0.8, pressure level is 1900, and support level is 1700 [15] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]