Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on energy and chemical options, providing an early - morning strategy report for September 15, 2025 [2] - It covers various sectors including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc., and offers strategies and suggestions for different option varieties [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The energy and chemical sector is segmented into multiple sub - sectors. Each sub - sector's option varieties are analyzed in terms of fundamental information, market trends, option factors, and corresponding strategies are proposed [9] - The overall market trends of different option varieties show characteristics such as being under pressure, fluctuating, and having different levels of strength or weakness [8][10][11] - Strategies mainly include constructing option combination strategies, bear spread strategies, and spot hedging strategies to enhance returns or hedge risks [8][10][11] Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - For different option varieties, the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of their underlying futures contracts are presented [4] Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The volume and open interest PCR data of different option varieties are analyzed, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points of the market [5] - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are identified from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options [6] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility data of different option varieties are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes compared with the annual average [7] Group 5: Strategy and Suggestions for Different Option Varieties Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Based on fundamental data and market trends, it is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: Considering the fundamental situation and market trends, a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are suggested [10] Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: A bear spread strategy for directional trading and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility are recommended, along with a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: A bear spread strategy for directional trading, a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are proposed [11] Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: A long - collar strategy for spot hedging is recommended [11] Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: A neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility is suggested [12] Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: A short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility is recommended [13] Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: A long - collar strategy for spot hedging is recommended [14] - **Soda Ash**: A short - volatility combination strategy for volatility and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are proposed [14] Urea Options - A short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [15]

此外，浙江大宗还与宁波银行在舟山联合主办"走进浙江国际大宗商品交易中心"主题沙龙，邀请企业代 表前往舟山实地参观考察，通过"走出去+请进来"双向赋能、双轨联动，以多元互动模式搭建产业对话 平台，助力企业共探发展机遇，为后续合作奠定良好基础。 浙江大宗副总经理汪剑表示，时值全国首个大宗商品资源配置枢纽建设的关键阶段，"浙江大宗正以此 为契机，持续深化会员服务创新，进一步推动期现一体化交易市场建设，全力赋能大宗商品企业高质量 发展。期待与各优质企业携手把握资源配置枢纽建设带来的战略机遇，共同开拓企业发展新空间，开创 产业建设新局面"。 据悉，浙江大宗正加速推进钢铁、有色、煤炭、聚酯等大宗商品企业集聚，目前已引进战略新品类企业 百余家，累计集聚近3700家会员企业，年贸易交易规模超5000亿元。近日新增铁矿石、动力煤、电解铜 三类交易品种，品种备案数量已达44个，国际大宗商品市场话语权持续提升。下一步，浙江大宗将持续 贴近市场，与行业伙伴共探钢铁行业发展新路径，同绘产业升级新图景。 近期，浙江国际大宗商品交易中心（下称浙江大宗）开启"大宗势力"系列招商活动，旨在依托浙江自贸 试验区制度创新优势，瞄准钢铁、有色金属等 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Cautiously Optimistic" investment rating [3][4]. Core Insights - OPEC's actual production increase is lower than expected, leading to an anticipated stable oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in the medium term [4][5]. - The upstream sector shows signs of recovery with oil prices rising, while drilling day rates remain stable [4][24]. - The refining sector is experiencing mixed results, with some product margins improving while others decline [4]. - The polyester sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply and demand dynamics improve [4][18]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $66.99 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 2.27%, while WTI futures rose by 1.33% to $62.69 per barrel [4][24]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.42 million barrels to 425 million barrels, remaining 4% lower than the five-year average [24][25]. - The number of active U.S. drilling rigs increased by 2 to 539, although this is a decrease of 51 rigs year-on-year [35][38]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $16.66 per barrel, down by $1.41 from the previous week [4]. - The price spread between gasoline and WTI crude oil fell to $18.30 per barrel, down by $2.48 from the previous week [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses [4]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have declined, with the average price in East China at 4606.6 CNY per ton, down 2.02% week-on-week [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the polyester industry as new capacity additions taper off in the coming years [4][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [4][18]. - In the refining sector, it suggests monitoring quality companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][18]. - For upstream exploration and production, it highlights companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation as having strong prospects [4][18].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：成本支撑不足单边震荡偏弱，加工费高位震荡 供应 工厂开工小幅提升，本周工厂平均开工率94.4%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工98%，总体开工已经高位，旺季供应进一步提高空间有限。 需求 9月旺季需求提升，低价下游采购较好。短纤去库，1.4D权益库存在9.1天，实物库存18.8天。9月下游开工负荷保持环比提升，各个环节都还 在季节性去库的趋势，纱线、织造环节 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Polyester Sector**: In the short - term, supply is expected to increase while demand improvement is limited, so the polyester sector will run weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, with unobvious demand peak season features, the polyester sector will fluctuate widely within a range [41][42]. - **Methanol**: In the short - term, although it is the demand peak season, the supply side still has pressure, and methanol will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, there is continuous pressure on the supply side and stable demand support, resulting in a multi - empty game for methanol [60][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Israel's strike on Hamas in Qatar has increased Middle East tensions, providing some support for crude oil prices. However, EIA and IEA monthly reports have raised global oil supply growth forecasts, and EIA inventory data shows a seasonal decline in US crude oil demand, making it difficult for oil prices to rise. If the geopolitical situation eases, the pressure for crude oil adjustment will increase [6][7][41]. - OPEC + agreed to increase crude oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, with a lower increase rate compared to previous months. The organization is adhering to the policy of competing for market share, and the new round of production increase in October means starting to lift the 1.66 million barrels per day of agreed production cuts [7]. - The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, targeting six Russian banks and energy companies, and expanding to payment systems, credit card networks, and cryptocurrency platforms [7]. - The IEA has raised the forecast for global oil supply growth this year and hinted at a possible surplus in 2026. Supply growth is much faster than demand growth [7]. - EIA weekly data shows a decline in US refined oil demand and an increase in inventories, indicating a peak in demand [8]. - The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US has verified the weakness of the employment market, which will weaken residents' consumption ability and energy demand expectations, leading to a more pessimistic market expectation for US oil product demand [9]. 3.2 Polyester Sector 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil continuous decreased by 1.71% week - on - week, while the price of some polyester products such as PX and PTA increased slightly, and the price of EG decreased [11]. - The basis of some products such as PX decreased, while the basis of some products such as ethylene glycol increased [11]. 3.2.2 Supply - **PX**: The 800,000 - ton unit of Fuhai Chuang restarted, and the Asian PX capacity utilization rate increased slightly. Next week, some units will be under maintenance while Fuhai Chuang's unit will release production, so the weekly output of PX is expected to increase slightly [20]. - **PTA**: Some previously shut - down units restarted this week, and the supply increased. Next week, large - scale units such as Fuhai Chuang are planned to restart, and the supply is expected to continue to increase, with the supply - demand situation possibly turning to inventory accumulation [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: New units have successfully conducted test runs, increasing the expected domestic supply pressure. The supply decreased slightly this week, and the port inventory decreased slightly. Next week, the port inventory may first accumulate and then decline [28]. 3.2.3 Demand - The polyester end had an average weekly operating rate of 87.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points. Polyester filament continued to accumulate inventory this week [29][32]. - Terminal seasonal orders were generally average, and downstream demand had not significantly improved. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate remained stable, the number of orders from textile enterprises increased slightly, and the inventory of grey fabrics decreased slightly [36][38][39]. 3.3 Methanol Sector 3.3.1 Futures, Spot, and Downstream Prices - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 1.49% week - on - week, and the basis increased by 29.29%. The price of methanol in Taicang decreased slightly, while the CFR price increased [44]. - Among the downstream products, the prices of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and MTBE increased, while the price of dimethyl ether remained unchanged [44]. 3.3.2 Cost and Profit - This week, due to the increase in the methanol spot price, the profits of the three major production processes all improved, with a week - on - week increase. The downstream profits mostly decreased slightly, but the MTO profit was still at a relatively high level in previous years, and the profits of acetic acid and MTBE increased for two consecutive weeks [49][50]. 3.3.3 Supply - As of September 11, the methanol unit capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05 percentage points. China's methanol production was 1.9192 million tons, a decrease of 43,500 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.21%. This week, the number of shut - down units was greater than the number of restarted units. Next week, some units are planned to restart [53]. - As of September 10, China's methanol port inventory was 1.5503 million tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 8.59%. The port continued to significantly accumulate inventory, and the supply side was under continuous pressure, with goods flowing back to the inland. The inland inventory was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% [59]. 3.3.4 Demand - Affected by the maintenance of the olefin unit of Qinghai Salt Lake, the olefin operating load decreased slightly this week. With profit restoration and the expectation of some olefin unit restarts, the olefin operating rate still has room to rise. The operating rates of traditional downstream industries fluctuated, with no obvious positive signs [60]. - The restart of Zhejiang Xingxing will provide some support for the demand in the coastal market and may promote port inventory reduction. The subsequent olefin procurement plans and the continuous high import volume need to be continuously monitored [60].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market has supply and demand imbalances, with price upward momentum limited [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market is affected by factors such as oil prices and downstream profitability, showing a weak performance [3] - The polyester market has different trends for each product, with price drivers mainly from raw materials and demand showing a mixed picture [4] - The coal - chemical market is expected to stabilize or continue weakly depending on the product, influenced by factors like inventory and demand [5] - The chlor - alkali market has supply - demand issues, with PVC and caustic soda showing different price trends [6] - The soda ash - glass market has high inventories and supply pressure, with prices expected to be in a certain pattern [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures fluctuate around the 5 - day average, with limited upward momentum due to supply increase and weakening downstream acceptance [2] - Polyolefin futures decline, with polyethylene having low supply pressure but weak demand, and polypropylene facing supply pressure and slow demand recovery [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are weak due to factors like oil price decline, downstream poor profitability, and import pressure, but may improve in Q3 [3] - Styrene futures decline, with supply - demand support insufficient due to high inventory and weak new orders [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are affected by oil prices, with PTA price driven by raw materials, and downstream demand showing a positive trend but with some constraints [4] - Ethylene glycol is pressured in the far - month due to new device news, with near - month and spot being strong [4] - Short fiber is expected to be positive in the near - month, with price following cost, and bottle chip has limited processing - margin repair space [4] Coal - Chemical - Methanol prices are weak with high port inventory, but may stabilize with expected increase in MTO device operation and downstream stocking [5] - Urea prices hit new lows, with supply - demand remaining loose and the market expected to continue weakly [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices may fluctuate weakly due to high supply pressure, weak demand, and high inventory [6] - Caustic soda prices may have a wide - range oscillation pattern due to factors like demand support and supply pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuate narrowly, with high inventory and supply pressure, and it's advisable to short at high rebounds [7] - Glass prices may have a wide - range oscillation due to factors like inventory decline and potential macro - level positives [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA installations are gradually resuming, leading to an increase in domestic PTA production and a rapid decline in PTA basis. OPEC+ will likely increase oil production again at Sunday's meeting. Downstream profits have significantly recovered, and the operating load of polyester has rebounded to 91% [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The basis of MEG has weakened. The upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's MEG plant is putting pressure on the futures market. Although the arrival of overseas MEG installations has decreased, the increase in hedging positions after the price rebound. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the operating load of downstream weaving has increased [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE Crude Oil: The price rose from 486.2 yuan/barrel on September 10th to 489.2 yuan/barrel on September 11th, an increase of 3.00 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA: The spot price decreased from 4,625 yuan/ton to 4,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton. The main futures price dropped from 4,698 yuan/ton to 4,688 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 134.3 yuan/ton to 126.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.2 yuan/ton. The futures processing fee decreased from 202.3 yuan/ton to 194.0 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 8.2 yuan/ton [2] - MEG: The spot price in Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market decreased from 4,441.5 yuan/ton to 4,437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton. The main futures price dropped from 4,319 yuan/ton to 4,302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.0 yuan/ton [2] Industry Chain Indicators - PX: CFR China PX remained at 838, and the PX-naphtha spread decreased from 241 to 235, a decrease of 6 [2] - Polyester Filament: The POY150D/48F price increased from 6,725 to 6,760, an increase of 35.0. The FDY150D/96F price decreased from 7,025 to 6,990, a decrease of 35.0. The DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 8,015. The filament sales rate decreased from 69% to 48%, a decrease of 21% [2] - Polyester Staple Fiber: The 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6,540 to 6,565, an increase of 25. The staple fiber sales rate increased from 55% to 72%, an increase of 17% [2] - Polyester Chip: The semi-gloss chip price increased from 5,770 to 5,775, an increase of 5.0. The chip sales rate decreased from 198% to 54%, a decrease of 144% [2] Installation Maintenance - A 2.5 million-ton PTA installation in East China restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is under pressure due to the increase in supply from OPEC+ and concerns about supply - overcapacity, with the IEA suggesting a possible surplus in 2026. The price of crude oil is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The fuel oil market is also in a state of oscillation. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by factors such as weak demand before the refinery maintenance season and after the end of summer power generation demand. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply in Singapore may increase, and the market should focus on the cost - side fluctuations of crude oil [3]. - The asphalt price is expected to rise further as the supply pressure is limited and the seasonal demand in September and October is expected to increase. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the cost - side fluctuations of oil prices [3]. - The polyester market is expected to be weak with oscillations. Although the fundamentals of PX are improving, TA and ethylene glycol still face challenges such as weak downstream demand and uncertain supply recovery [5]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The demand is stable, the inventory is decreasing, but the weather in the production areas during the peak - production season needs to be closely monitored [7]. - The methanol price is expected to reach a temporary bottom. Although the supply will gradually increase, the demand from MTO devices in the East China region is expected to increase, and the port inventory will peak in the middle of the month [7]. - The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the demand is picking up with the arrival of the peak season, the cost pressure restricts the price upward movement [7]. - The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply remains high, the domestic demand recovers slowly, and the export is affected by anti - dumping policies, with large inventory pressure [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the oil price dropped. The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.7 million barrels per day and predicted an increase of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC+ is increasing supply, which has led to concerns about overcapacity and pressured the oil price. The demand growth is slower than the supply growth, and the OPEC monthly report shows an increase in production in August [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose 0.47%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract fell 0.53%. The supply in Singapore may increase, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is affected by weak demand [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose 0.76%. The domestic refinery asphalt inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the device operating rate decreased. The supply pressure is limited, and the price may rise with the arrival of the demand peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA and EG prices fell, and PX prices rose slightly. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. Some production devices have maintenance or restart plans, and the market is expected to be weak with oscillations [5]. - **Rubber**: The prices of various rubber varieties dropped. The operating rate of tire enterprises in Shandong increased, the demand is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a temporary low due to domestic device maintenance, but it will gradually increase. The Iranian device has high load and stable shipping volume, but there is an expected maintenance. The MTO device in the East China region may start up, and the port inventory will peak in the middle of the month [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of various polyolefin products show different trends. The supply will remain high, the demand is picking up with the peak season, but the cost pressure makes the market expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in different regions are adjusted slightly. The domestic real - estate construction is recovering, but the demand for pipes and profiles has limited growth. The supply is high, the export is affected by policies, and the inventory pressure is large, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on September 12, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc., and also shows the changes in these data compared with the previous period and their positions in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 and suggested a possible surplus in 2026 due to the increase in supply from OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries. The OPEC monthly report shows an increase in OPEC+ crude oil production in August [14][15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., through charts [17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., through charts [35]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., through charts [48]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc., through charts [64]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc., through charts [75]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical futures showed different price movements, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, crude oil (SC2511) was at 483, down 6 (-1.31%), with a trading volume of 2.92 million lots (down 0.40 million lots) and open interest of 2.26 million lots (up 0.09 million lots) [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties had different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil was 0.85 (up 0.18), and the open interest PCR was 0.85 (up 0.12) [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option variety were analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil was 570 and the support level was 415 [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each option variety was presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil was 29.61%, and the weighted implied volatility was 33.95% (up 2.83%) [7] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Each Option Variety 3.5.1 Energy - related Options: Crude Oil - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical short - term disturbances, long - term supply - demand negatives, and concerns about employment and the economy. **Market analysis**: A bearish market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility around the mean, open interest PCR above 0.80, pressure level at 570 and support level at 415. **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] 3.5.2 Energy - related Options: Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Fundamentals**: Loose supply and low demand. **Market analysis**: A weak market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility near the mean, open interest PCR around 0.70. **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Alcohol - related Options: Methanol - **Fundamentals**: Increased production and capacity utilization. **Market analysis**: A weak market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility below the mean, open interest PCR around 0.90. **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Alcohol - related Options: Ethylene Glycol - **Fundamentals**: Decreased inventory. **Market analysis**: A weak market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility below the mean, open interest PCR below 0.60. **Strategies**: Construct a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.5 Polyolefin - related Options: Polypropylene - **Fundamentals**: Increased maintenance losses. **Market analysis**: A weak market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility below the mean, open interest PCR around 0.60. **Strategies**: A long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.6 Rubber - related Options: Rubber - **Fundamentals**: Decreased tire production load. **Market analysis**: A gradually warming - up market with support and pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility near the mean, open interest PCR below 0.60. **Strategies**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [12] 3.5.7 Polyester - related Options: PTA - **Fundamentals**: Stable supply - demand, low inventory and processing fees. **Market analysis**: A weak bearish market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility above the mean, open interest PCR around 0.70. **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [12] 3.5.8 Alkali - related Options: Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: Changes in production load. **Market analysis**: A market with pressure and downward fluctuations. **Option factors**: High - level implied volatility, open interest PCR around 1.00. **Strategies**: A long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.9 Alkali - related Options: Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: Increased production, weak price due to market supply. **Market analysis**: A low - level weak consolidation market with pressure. **Option factors**: High - level implied volatility, open interest PCR below 0.60. **Strategies**: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.10 Urea Options - **Fundamentals**: Weak supply - demand, slow new order transactions. **Market analysis**: A low - level weak consolidation market. **Option factors**: Implied volatility around the mean, open interest PCR below 0.60. **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. In the PE market, the current maintenance remains high, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively limited. In the PP market, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases. However, after the new device is put into production in early September, the pressure in East China increases, driving the basis to weaken rapidly, and market transactions are dull [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to be more relaxed than expected due to the maintenance of a reforming device in East China, and the weakening demand support will limit the price drive. For styrene, the overall start - up of downstream 3S has rebounded this week, and the port inventory has fallen from a high level. There is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda market has stabilized slightly in the past two days, and the supply is expected to decline next week. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, but the inventory pressure of caustic soda enterprises is not large, and the spot price may remain firm in the short term. The PVC market has stopped falling and stabilized recently, but the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in demand [30]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the supply - demand expectation in September is relatively loose, but the medium - term supply - demand is still expected to be tight. PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol supply is strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - fiber supply - demand is still weak in the short term. Bottle - chip supply - demand may be balanced in September, and inventory may increase slightly [33]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about supply surplus overwhelming the premium brought by geopolitical risks. In the short term, oil prices are likely to run weakly, and it is recommended to take a short - side approach [38]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the dual pressure of increased supply and weak demand. The domestic urea daily output has rebounded, while agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is limited [42]. Methanol Industry - The methanol supply is expected to increase in September as domestic maintenance devices return and foreign start - up reaches a seasonal high. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and the port inventory has increased significantly, with weak basis performance and prominent pressure [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, with decreases of 0.24%, 0.43%, 0.13%, and 0.71% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased by 28.00% and 42.55% respectively [23]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends last week, with PE de - stocking and PP stocking. The current maintenance of PE remains high, and short - term supply pressure is limited. For PP, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases, but new devices will increase pressure after being put into production in September [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR China pure benzene, and styrene in East China all changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.7%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3% [26]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 10.2%. The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to decrease, and the demand support is weakening. For styrene, there is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% remained unchanged, the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.2%, and the price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [31]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 7.8%, and the total social inventory of PVC increased by 2.1%. The supply of caustic soda is expected to decline next week, and the demand for PVC remains weak [31]. Polyester Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and various polyester products changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.5%, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 0.5% [34]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The supply of PX is gradually increasing, and the supply - demand in September is expected to be relatively loose. The supply - demand of PTA in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term supply - demand balance but may face oversupply in the fourth quarter [34]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Change**: On September 12th compared with September 11th, the prices of Brent, WTI, and various refined oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 1.66%, and the price of NYM RBOB decreased by 0.51% [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of crude oil is expected to be in a record - high surplus next year, and the increase in Saudi Arabia's export quota to China confirms the supply pressure. The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has raised concerns about economic and demand slowdown [38]. Urea Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.83%, and the prices of various urea futures contracts and spreads also changed [42]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily output has rebounded to 18.44 tons, and the start - up rate has increased month - on - month. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial rigid - demand procurement is limited. Although export containerization provides some support, the decline in Indian consumption weakens the positive effect [42]. Methanol Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased by 0.83% and 2.30% respectively, and the MA91 spread decreased by 22.54% [44]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59%. The domestic maintenance devices are expected to return in early September, and the foreign start - up has reached a seasonal high, while the traditional downstream demand remains weak [44].