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黑色建材日报-20250804
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:00
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamental situation of the black building materials market remains weak, and the futures price may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand repair rhythm and the cost - side support for the finished product price need to be focused on [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment is released, the market capital divergence increases, and the price is expected to gradually move closer to the real fundamentals. It is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize the opportunity according to their own situation [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3203 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day, with a registered warehouse receipt of 85034 tons and a main contract position of 1.760703 million lots, down 55323 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3401 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.324%), with a registered warehouse receipt of 57174 tons and a main contract position of 1.45476 million lots, up 20824 lots [2]. - **Market Situation**: The rebar speculative demand decreased significantly with the price decline, resulting in inventory accumulation; the hot - rolled coil demand increased slightly, the output rose rapidly, and the inventory increased slightly. The current inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 0.51% (+ 4.00), with a position change of - 9550 lots to 410,000 lots. The weighted position was 943,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.81 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.02% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to rise, the FMG shipment volume increased significantly, the Brazilian shipment volume decreased slightly, and the non - mainstream country shipment volume dropped to a low level this year. The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 1st, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.27% at 5962 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.25% at 5682 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Situation**: Last week, the prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fluctuated widely. It is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. Fundamentally, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are facing the problems of over - capacity, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8500 yuan/ton, down 2.97% (- 260), with a position change of - 18592 lots to 194340 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2509) closed at 49200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% (+ 70), with a position change of - 16227 lots to 110762 lots [13][14]. - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon still has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand. After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price may weaken. Polysilicon prices are affected by industry capacity integration expectations and enterprise price - holding strategies, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 22 yuan to 1245 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased by 3.87% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1240 yuan, with a slight increase in inventory [17][18]. - **Market Situation**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18].
8月3日丨聚玻玻璃期现周评(第24期):玻璃期货大幅回落吐尽涨幅,现货涨势放缓显观望。
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 16:16
Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market experienced a downward trend this week, with the main contract price dropping by 121 yuan/ton, while the spot market initially rose before stabilizing, resulting in an average weekly price increase of 36 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2]. Supply Side - The industry saw slight adjustments in operating rates and production due to the ignition of previously idled production lines, with inventory decreasing by 3.87% from last week, indicating ongoing destocking but at a reduced pace [2]. Demand Side - Some manufacturers adjusted their pricing, which provided some market support; however, the enthusiasm for procurement from downstream sectors has waned compared to earlier periods, leading to a slight decline in market transaction focus as the weekend approached [3]. Technical Analysis - The glass 09 contract experienced significant declines, with a weekly closing price down 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.1%, effectively reversing all gains from the previous week. The trading volume saw a substantial reduction, indicating a rapid exit of capital following the price drop, and open interest sharply decreased, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market [4]. - The technical indicators show a complete bearish arrangement, with prices consistently breaking through key support levels and operating along the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a strong downward trend [4]. Market Outlook - On the fundamental side, supply-demand imbalances have been somewhat alleviated, with some manufacturers still planning price increases; however, after a phase of inventory replenishment, companies are primarily focused on digesting existing stock, with market demand driven mainly by essential purchases [4]. - Technically, the market exhibits characteristics of a confirmed bearish trend, with concerns over low demand and high supply potentially exerting long-term pressure. Without clear favorable policies, the market is unlikely to reverse its weak trend, with attention needed on the effectiveness of the 1100 yuan/ton support level [4].
投资策略周报:暂时的折返,慢牛行情趋势不变-20250803
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-03 11:20
Market Review - Global equity markets experienced a general adjustment, with Hong Kong, France, Germany, and the US stock markets showing significant declines. A-shares, after five consecutive weeks of gains, faced a correction, with major indices generally declining. In terms of sectors, A-share CPO and innovative pharmaceuticals led the gains, while cyclical products like coal and non-ferrous metals saw a pullback. The domestic commodity market cooled down due to risk warnings from the three major futures exchanges and position limits on certain products, leading to sharp declines in previously strong commodities like coking coal, glass, and polysilicon. On the international front, Trump's announcement on July 30 regarding copper tariffs did not impose restrictions on copper raw materials, resulting in a significant drop in COMEX copper prices. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index plummeted after the release of non-farm payroll data on Friday, with market expectations for a rate cut in September significantly increasing [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current market correction is temporary, and the slow bull market trend remains unchanged. Following the July Politburo meeting and the new round of China-US economic and trade talks, the market's speculation on incremental policies has cooled down, and after five weeks of consecutive gains, the index requires a phase of adjustment. Looking ahead, the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has reignited, and domestic macro and micro liquidity remains relatively ample, which is conducive to the continuation of the slow bull trend in A-shares. Since the "623" market, A-shares have shown clear characteristics of "rotating upward and low-level replenishment," with better sustainability of the profit-making effect. Additionally, the sources of incremental capital in the market are diverse, with increased participation from public and private equity institutions, and the positive feedback effect of "residents allocating funds into the market and the slow rise of the stock market" is expected to strengthen [2][3]. Sector Allocation - The report recommends focusing on the following areas for sector allocation: 1) New technologies and growth directions such as AI computing power, robotics, and solid-state batteries; 2) Reallocation opportunities in dividend sectors after corrections, such as certain undervalued state-owned enterprises. Thematic areas of interest include self-controllable technologies, military industry, low-altitude economy, and marine technology [2][3].
国泰君安期货能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20250803
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 08:30
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Glass: Short - term short - chasing should be cautious. The market will gradually turn into a weak shock later, and the medium - term decline is not over. The previous policy proposals and peak - season expectations boosted the rebound, but now weak basis, delivery factors, and high inventory lead to a market decline. With a relatively large basis and excessive premium of the forward 01 contract, short - chasing should be careful [2]. -纯碱: Short - term short - chasing should be cautious, but the downward pressure is not over. In the futures market, the previous crowded shorts led to a short - covering stampede. The increase in the futures market drove spot purchases, reducing inventory and raising prices. The strengthening basis in the short - term decline is not conducive to the futures price, and the delivery pressure on the 08 and 09 contracts is expected to be large. The future trend depends on the basis regression and the supply - side response [3]. Summary by Related Directory Glass Supply - As of July 31, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 222 in production and 74 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, a 0.38% increase from the 24th. The daily loss of float glass was 40,450 tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous period, and the weekly loss was 284,950 tons, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 11,680 tons/day, the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day, the potential new ignition lines had a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day, the potential old - line复产 had a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons, and the potential cold - repair lines had a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [6][7][8][10][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day. Short - term production reduction space is limited, but if demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain - scale production reduction in the fourth quarter [13]. Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, a 2.7% increase from the previous period and a 1.55% decrease from the same period last year. The deep - processing profits are still low, and the increase in the inventory days of reserved raw glass is higher than the increase in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.499 million heavy cases, a decrease of 2.397 million heavy cases from the previous period, a 3.87% decrease from the previous period and a 13.88% decrease from the same period last year. The inventory days were 25.5 days, 1.1 days less than the previous period. The inventory in different regions decreased to varying degrees, but the decline rate slowed down due to the decrease in spot trading [2][35]. Price and Profit - The market price declined slightly this week, while the ex - factory price changed little. The price in Shahe was about 1,260 - 1,310 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei region it was about 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and in some large factories in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions it was about 1,320 - 1,400 yuan/ton [18][22]. - The futures rebounded, the basis strengthened, and the month - spread was still weak. The profit with petroleum coke as fuel was about 137 yuan/ton, and the profits with natural gas and coal as fuel were about - 150 and 138 yuan/ton respectively [24][27]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market had good transactions, and the inventory continued to decline. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, and the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from the previous week [44][46]. Capacity and Inventory - Affected by the anti - involution policy, the recent supply decreased, the trading improved, and the inventory declined. As of early August, there were 408 national photovoltaic glass production lines in production, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons/day, a 1.33% decrease from the previous period and an 18.57% decrease from the same period last year. The sample inventory days were about 29.31 days, a 10.06% decrease from the previous period [47][48][52]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash enterprises had more device reductions, and the comprehensive supply decreased. The domestic soda ash output this period was 699,800 tons, a 3.32% decrease from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.27%, a 2.75% decrease from last week. Some enterprises were under maintenance or had reduced production loads, and there were also some planned maintenance and resumptions in the future [3][56]. - The current capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 80.27%, and the weekly output of heavy soda has reached 398,700 tons/week. In the context of high production and high inventory, either manufacturers need to increase production reduction efforts, or the real - estate industry chain needs to continue to recover to drive the recovery of glass demand and inventory [58][59]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were about 1,300 - 1,450 yuan/ton. The manufacturer's price changed little, while the quotes of futures - spot merchants decreased. The basis and month - spread: due to high production and high inventory, the near - month contracts were under pressure, but attention should be paid to the market potentially turning to positive spreads during the peak position - shifting period [69][72][74]. - The joint - soda production profit in East China (excluding Shandong) was 106 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - soda production profit in North China was 57 yuan/ton [77]. Inventory - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.7958 million tons, a 3.69% decrease from the previous period and a 67.08% increase from the same period last year. A large amount of inventory was transferred to the delivery warehouse [3].
每周高频跟踪:基本面进入效果验证期-20250802
Huachuang Securities· 2025-08-02 14:48
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fifth week of July, futures sentiment cooled down, and spot prices mostly had small month - on - month declines, but prices were still higher than at the end of June. Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. Container shipping prices continued to fall, and port cargo volume decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year. In the industrial sector, the incremental measures from the Politburo meeting in July were slightly weaker than expected, causing futures sentiment to cool and investment product prices to decline. In the investment sector, typhoon and rainfall affected construction activities, leading to a continued decline in cement prices. In the real estate sector, the end - of - month sales rush for new homes was evident, while second - hand home sales continued to decline, in line with seasonality [4][34]. - For the bond market, short - term implementation of anti - involution policies, price transmission, and the impact of production control on industrial growth are worthy of attention. "Broad credit" disturbances may increase compared to July. Externally, the results of China - US economic and trade negotiations were in line with expectations, and the market reaction was muted. Export resilience remains, but its elasticity is decreasing, and the weakening of "rush exports" may gradually materialize. Internally, the strong futures market last week driven by major infrastructure projects and "anti - involution" led to spot price increases. This week, futures sentiment cooled, and spot demand weakened due to weather conditions. Although industrial product prices generally corrected, they were still higher than before July. In the future, price increase elasticity may be limited in the short term, but the recovery trend is hard to disprove, which may support equity sentiment. Urban renewal may accelerate, and the implementation of policy - based financial instruments is expected. August is the policy effect verification stage, increasing the importance of data observation [4][35]. Summary by Directory Inflation - related - Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. The wholesale price index of 200 agricultural products and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.05% and 0.03% month - on - month respectively. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% month - on - month, while vegetable prices rose, and the decline in fruit prices narrowed [4][10]. Import - Export related - Container shipping prices continued to decline. The CCFI index decreased by 2.3% month - on - month, and the SCFI decreased by 2.6% month - on - month. From July 21st to July 27th, port container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 6.5% and 4.3% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 11.5% and 13.3% year - on - year. The BDI index decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the CDFI index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12]. Industrial related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.4% month - on - month with a narrowing increase. The price of rebar reversed from an increase to a decrease, with a 0.26% month - on - month decline in spot price. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.1% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened to 5.7%. Copper prices decreased month - on - month, affected by the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar. Glass prices also reversed from an increase to a decrease as futures market sentiment cooled [14][18][19]. Investment related - Cement prices continued to weaken, with a 1.40% month - on - month decline in the national cement price index and a narrowing decline. In the real estate sector, from July 25th to July 31st, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities increased by 25% month - on - month but decreased by 15.4% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities decreased by 4.6% month - on - month but increased by 5.1% year - on - year [20][29]. Consumption - From July 1st to July 27th, passenger car retail sales decreased by 19% month - on - month compared to the same period in June but increased by 9% year - on - year. From July 21st to July 27th, retail sales decreased by 30% month - on - month and increased by 5% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.8% and 3.3% month - on - month respectively, boosted by factors such as a trade agreement between the US and Europe and supply - side constraints [30].
内房地强势反转,科技、工商紧随其后,内银行延续弱势
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-01 19:09
恒生工商冲高回落,截至目前上涨0.32%。其中中通快递大涨6.78%,信义光能上涨4.92%,石药集团上 涨3.02%,百度集团上涨2.54%,阿里巴巴上涨2.33%,联想集团、紫金矿业、信义玻璃等超10只个股涨 幅均在1%上方。 内银行冲高回落,截至目前下跌0.6%。其中重庆农村商业银行大跌2.57%,交通银行下跌1.13%,农业 银行、邮储银行、建设银行、工商银行、中国银行等股均小幅下跌。 内容只是个人观点,仅供参考,不作为投资依据!欢迎关注交流,互相学习、共同探讨! 冲高回落,截至目前恒生指数下跌0.17%。内房地涨幅居前,工商、科技等紧随其后;内石油跌幅居 前,内银行、金融、地产等板块均弱势震荡。 内房地开盘后直线拉升,随后维持在高位盘整,截至目前上涨1.04%,其中建发国际集团上涨2.15%, 贝壳上涨1.78%,华润万象生活、碧桂园服务、华润置地等股涨幅均在1%上方。 ...
智通港股解盘 | 关税落地破坏全球供应链 观察非农数据是否有惊喜
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 13:04
Market Overview - The market sentiment for August is pessimistic, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 1.07% [1] - The U.S. has finalized tariffs on various countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, impacting global trade dynamics [1][2] - Canada faces a tariff increase to 35% on certain goods, leading to potential retaliatory measures [1] Economic Impact - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to rise to 15.2%, significantly higher than previous levels, which may disrupt global supply chains [2] - Japan and Thailand are experiencing substantial impacts on their agricultural sectors due to U.S. tariffs on rice [2] Pharmaceutical Sector - U.S. President Trump has threatened 17 pharmaceutical companies with price reductions by September 29, causing significant stock declines in major firms [2] - Hong Kong-listed pharmaceutical companies also faced declines, reflecting the broader market impact [2] Industry Developments - The Hong Kong stablecoin initiative has seen limited licensing, affecting related stocks negatively [3] - The Chinese government is promoting consumption and service sectors, with companies like Xirui and Legend Holdings benefiting from this trend [5] Regulatory Changes - New regulations in the Chinese traditional medicine sector require all herbal products to have clear expiration dates, promoting safer practices [8] - The establishment of a unified national market in China is progressing, with logistics companies like Zhongtong Express seeing stock increases [6] Company Highlights - Goldwind Technology has secured significant contracts, indicating strong market competitiveness and a robust order backlog [10] - The company reported a 35.72% increase in revenue and a 70.84% increase in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by international expansion [10][11] - Goldwind's international business has grown, with a substantial share of orders coming from overseas markets [11]
交易所紧急出手无效,玻璃期货成交量为何仍居商品榜首?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-01 12:18
Group 1 - Glass futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 3.84% to 1102 yuan/ton, fully reversing the gains from the previous week, primarily due to the end of the macro "anti-involution" trading phase and a decline in market sentiment [1] - The overall glass spot market is under pressure, with the price of 5.00mm large glass sheets in North China falling by 10 yuan to 1240 yuan/ton, indicating weak demand and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [1][2] - As of July 31, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises nationwide was 59.49 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million heavy boxes or 3.87% from the previous period, marking a six-week consecutive decline, although the rate of decline has narrowed [2] Group 2 - The glass production and sales showed a high-to-low trend this week, with a decrease in procurement enthusiasm among industry players, despite the overall improvement in production line profitability for seven consecutive weeks [2] - The operating rate of the float glass industry reached 75%, with the capacity utilization rate increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 79.78%, the highest level this year [2] - The recent important meetings did not signal additional fiscal policy support, emphasizing the need to utilize existing policy packages, which may impact market sentiment and price movements [2] Group 3 - Institutions have differing views on the future price trends of glass, with some suggesting a trading range of 1080-1200 yuan for the FG2509 contract, while others maintain a cautious outlook due to the weak balance between supply and demand [4] - The overall market is at a critical juncture of policy expectation adjustment and fundamental dynamics, with short-term market sentiment cooling significantly [4]
黑色系周度报告-20250801
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 11:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Mid - to long - term: After continuous increases due to policy speculation, black - series commodities mainly showed a volatile correction this week. Market sentiment cooled, and the market logic gradually returned to fundamentals. For steel mills, the profitability rate continued to increase, daily hot metal output continued to decline, and overseas ore shipments rebounded. For glass, the start - up rate was flat with last week, and in - plant inventory continued to decline, but the fundamental changes were limited. For soda ash, production decreased month - on - month, but the oversupply situation continued, and the supply - demand fundamentals were poor, with recent fluctuations mainly following the chemical sector. Attention should be paid to the release and implementation of relevant policies [51][55]. - Short - term: The main contracts of black - series commodities had sharp price fluctuations recently, and it was recommended to operate with caution and light positions. The main contracts of glass and soda ash closed significantly lower this week, and short - term cautious observation was recommended [52][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price Change | Futures Price Change Rate | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (RB2510) | - 89 (from 3294 to 3205) | - 2.70% | 3370 | 165 | | Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510) | - 66 (from 3456 to 3390) | - 1.91% | 3410 | 20 | | Iron Ore (I2509) | - 32 (from 811 to 779) | - 3.95% | 779 | 0 | | Coke (J2509) | - 134 (from 1735 to 1601) | - 7.72% | 1520 | - 81 | | Coking Coal (JM2509) | - 153 (from 1199 to 1046) | - 12.77% | 1250 | 205 | | Glass (FG509) | - 190 (from 1307 to 1117) | - 14.54% | 1320 | 203 | | Soda Ash (SA509) | - 161 (from 1408 to 1247) | - 11.43% | 1359 | 112 | [3] 3.2 Rebar - Profit: On July 31, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was 227 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton compared to July 24 [7]. - Supply: As of August 1, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (unchanged), the electric - furnace start - up rate was 62.82% (+0.64), daily hot metal output was 240.71 tons (- 1.52), and rebar production was 2.1106 million tons (- 0.9) [12]. - Demand: In the week of August 1, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.0341 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 131,700 tons; the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 78,119 tons [16]. - Inventory: In the week of August 1, the social inventory of rebar was 3.8414 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 111,700 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.6215 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,200 tons [20]. 3.3 Float Glass - Supply: As of August 1, the number of float - glass production lines in operation was 222 (unchanged from last week), weekly output was 1,115,225 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7050 tons). As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate was 79.78% (a month - on - month increase of 0.3 percentage points), and the start - up rate was 75% (unchanged from last week) [25]. - Inventory: On August 1, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 59.499 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million weight boxes compared to July 25; the available days of in - plant inventory were 25.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 days [30]. - Demand: As of July 31, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [34]. 3.4 Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.27%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared to last week; production was 699,800 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons compared to last week [39]. - Inventory: As of August 1, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons compared to July 25 [44]. - Production and Sales Rate: As of August 1, the production - sales rate of soda ash was 109.83%, an increase of 4.17 percentage points compared to July 25 [48].
中观景气 7 月第 5 期:周期品延续涨价,空调内销排产转负
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-01 11:16
Group 1 - The report indicates that the prices of cyclical products continue to rise, while the domestic production of air conditioners has turned negative [7][8]. - Real estate sales remain sluggish, with a year-on-year decline of 11.0% in the transaction area of 30 major cities, and the air conditioner production for August is expected to decline significantly due to high base effects from the previous year [8][11]. - The service consumption sector shows seasonal improvement, but long-distance passenger transport demand has decreased, indicating that the summer service consumption outlook remains uncertain [7][8]. Group 2 - In the manufacturing sector, the expectation of anti-involution policies has increased, leading to a rise in steel and float glass prices, while cement prices remain under pressure due to weak demand affected by rainy weather [9][26]. - The operating rates in the manufacturing sector show mixed trends, with a notable decline in petroleum asphalt production, while recruitment intentions among companies have slightly improved [37][9]. - The prices of upstream resources, including thermal coal and industrial metals, have continued to rise, driven by increased demand and tightening supply expectations [46][48]. Group 3 - Long-distance passenger transport demand has slightly decreased, while domestic freight and express logistics have shown a decline in activity, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 0.6% and 2.1% respectively [55][57]. - The report highlights that the average price of live pigs has decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, attributed to increased market supply due to rising temperatures [13][19]. - The report notes that the average price of floating glass has increased by 2.2% week-on-week, reflecting improved market demand despite general market conditions [30][26].