1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the likelihood of a bullish or bearish outlook for various varieties, but it emphasizes that these are only possibilities, not definite judgments [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The social finance growth rate remains at a high level. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale in the first 11 months of 2025 exceeded the full - year figure of the previous year. The growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans, medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and technology loans continue to be higher than the overall loan growth rate [1]. - For precious metals, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases provide solid support [2][18]. - The copper market is expected to shift to a supply - demand gap due to disruptions in ore supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. - The aluminum price has short - term weakening upward momentum, but a long - term optimistic outlook is still recommended, considering macro - level support and the situation of supply and demand [3][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Main News Concerns 3.1.1. International News - The Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, emphasizing that the subsequent pace of rate hikes will depend on the economy's response to each increase. The market has almost fully priced in the rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% at the December 18 - 19 meeting [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy next year to support the expansion of domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote high - quality economic development [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by several leading silicon material enterprises, was established, regarded as an important step in the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry. The planned annual silicon material production capacity of relevant enterprises in the future will not exceed 1.5 million tons [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on December 11 and 12, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 Futures, ICE Brent Crude Oil Continuous, etc. [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The long - term slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's interest rate cut in December and positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Loose policies are expected to increase, providing support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. The market funds are relatively loose [10][11]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend is hard to change. The IEA has adjusted the forecast of world oil demand, and OPEC+ production has increased [12]. - **Methanol**: It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. The start - up rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants has decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory has declined [13]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weakening, and demand supports the stable start of all - steel tires [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Pay attention to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the digestion rhythm of upstream supply and demand. The downstream demand is steadily releasing [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The inventory of glass is decreasing faster, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16][17]. 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion by the Fed support prices [18]. - **Copper**: The price dropped by more than 2% over the weekend. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a gap [19]. - **Zinc**: The price dropped by more than 1% over the weekend. The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals [20]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward momentum is weakening, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The macro - level supports the price, and the supply and demand situation needs further attention [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about the upward height in the short term. The weekly social inventory is decreasing, but potential supply increments have not been released [22][23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The rigid demand is weakening, but strong policy expectations in December provide upward momentum [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price has the power to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited. The medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The price is expected to be weak. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slightly behind, US soybean exports are slow, and domestic long - term supply is sufficient [26]. - **Edible Oils**: Palm oil has significant inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term due to positive news [27]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. International factors and domestic supply and cost factors need to be considered [28][29]. - **Cotton**: The price trend is strong, supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract may face adjustment pressure, and the 04 contract is expected to have further downward space due to supply surplus and potential Red Sea route resumption [31].

Cotton Market Insights - The cotton futures contract 2601 closed at 13,835 CNY/ton, an increase of 85 CNY/ton, or 0.62% week-on-week [2][17] - In Xinjiang, the spot price of cotton reached 14,896 CNY/ton, up 23 CNY/ton, while the national weighted average spot price was 15,062 CNY/ton, increasing by 40 CNY/ton [2][18] - As of the end of November 2025, China's commercial cotton inventory stood at 4.6836 million tons, up 175.3 thousand tons, a 59.82% increase from the previous month [3][18] International Market Analysis - The USDA reported a 36% decrease in net cotton contracts for the week of November 7-13, with a total of 42,547 tons signed [2][18] - The U.S. cotton production is under pressure due to increased inventory levels, while global textile consumption remains weak, leading to short-term pressure on cotton prices [4][18] - The cotton market is expected to face seasonal supply pressures as new cotton is harvested in the Northern Hemisphere [4][19] Domestic Market Analysis - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase as the harvest in Xinjiang nears completion, contributing to a seasonal rise in commercial inventory [5][19] - The demand side shows weakness as the textile industry enters its off-season, although spinning profits have improved, limiting downward pressure on cotton prices [5][19] - The strategy suggests a neutral to slightly bullish outlook, focusing on buying opportunities in the 05 contract due to expected tight supply in the new year [6][20] Sugar Market Insights - The sugar futures contract 2605 closed at 5,214 CNY/ton, down 19 CNY/ton, or 0.36% week-on-week [7][21] - In Guangxi, the spot price of sugar was 5,370 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton, while in Yunnan, it was 5,295 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton [7][22] - Brazil's sugarcane planting area is projected to be 9.398 million hectares, a 0.2% decrease from the previous month, with sugar production expected to decline by 1.4% year-on-year [8][22] Market Dynamics - The global sugar supply remains in surplus, with no immediate signs of reversal, limiting the potential for price rebounds in the short to medium term [9][23] - Domestic sugar supply is currently ample as factories in Guangxi begin production, although the market remains under downward pressure [9][23] - The strategy is neutral, with attention on market dynamics that could lead to new lows, while maintaining a low-level consolidation approach [10][24] Pulp Market Insights - The pulp futures contract 2605 closed at 5,534 CNY/ton, an increase of 44 CNY/ton, or 0.80% week-on-week [11][25] - The average price of needle pulp in Shandong was 5,590 CNY/ton, up 90 CNY/ton, while Russian needle pulp averaged 5,090 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton [11][26] - Recent announcements of mill closures and maintenance in North America are expected to impact supply, while demand in Europe shows signs of improvement [13][27] Supply and Demand Outlook - Despite high inventory levels in domestic ports, recent declines in stock levels indicate potential marginal demand growth for pulp as paper production capacity expands [13][27] - The strategy remains neutral, with recent price increases driven by market adjustments, although fundamental supply-demand conditions have yet to show significant improvement [14][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. The structural shift in surplus and potential risks from Indonesia's policies should be noted. Stainless steel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short on price increases, with the next - week's price range expected to be between 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the next - week's price range estimated to be between 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market lacks new driving forces, and the high - level oscillation is expected to continue. The price of the futures main contract is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is waiting for Malaysia's December production reduction to confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to operate with a light position. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [91][93]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate at a low level, and soybean No.1 is expected to trade within a range. The prices of both are expected to oscillate next week [104][108]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The supply - demand mismatch has been marginally alleviated, and the near - end of the futures market remains relatively strong [122][127]. - **Sugar**: The international market is in a weak - expectation pattern and is expected to be sorted out at a low level. The domestic market is expected to operate weakly [148][150]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upside space may be limited [176][193]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2601 contract in the futures market may face pressure [195][198]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategies of large oil mills [210][211]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with the surplus pressure structurally shifted. Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slight surplus and limited upside space for prices [4][5]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons this week, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons. Stainless steel inventories also showed certain changes [6]. - **Market News**: There are various news events, such as Indonesia's policy adjustments, production restrictions in some projects, and changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price first declined and then rose, with the spot price falling. Polysilicon's futures price opened low and closed high, with the spot price stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's supply has a certain increase in some regions but a decrease in the southwest. The demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply has a slight decrease in the short - term, and the demand has a certain change in silicon wafer production [29][30]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social and factory inventories have increased, and polysilicon's factory inventory has also increased [29][30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices have increased, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply has a certain change in overseas shipments and domestic production, and the demand has a decline in downstream procurement willingness. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate has slowed down [57]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views**: Palm oil rebounded after the MPOB report, but the high - inventory situation restricted the upside. Soybean oil lacked upward driving forces and oscillated within a range [90]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil's high production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. It needs to confirm the production reduction in December to find the price bottom. Soybean oil is affected by the slow sales progress of US soybeans and is expected to oscillate [91][93]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices first fell and then rose, while soybean No.1 prices were relatively strong [104]. - **Next - Week's Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean prices and China's procurement, and soybean No.1 affected by spot prices and market news [104][108]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot prices slightly declined, and futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The basis has strengthened [122][123]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices declined, wheat prices fell, and the import corn auction restarted. Corn starch inventory decreased, and attention should be paid to the spot market [124][127]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: International sugar prices increased slightly, and domestic sugar prices declined. The net long position of funds increased slightly [148][149]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: The international market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and the domestic market is expected to operate weakly [150]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton is in a low - level narrow - range oscillation, and domestic cotton futures and spot prices are slightly stronger. The basis is relatively strong, and the increase in cotton warehouse receipts restricts the upside [176]. - **International and Domestic Fundamentals**: International cotton has various changes in production, consumption, and exports in different countries. Domestic cotton has a certain increase in prices, and the downstream situation is slightly worse [180][188]. Hogs - **This Week's Market Review**: Spot prices oscillated and adjusted, and futures prices were slightly stronger in oscillation. The basis has changed [195][196]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices may face pressure [197][198]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices oscillated [210]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price has regional differentiation, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties [211].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure if they cannot hold above 4,100 ringgit, with support at 4,000 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures could break down due to bearish fundamentals, with support around 8,000 yuan. - Soybean oil: The US EIA has lowered its forecasts for renewable diesel production in 2025 and 2026. However, the Fed's potential rate cuts and the rebound of BMD palm oil support CBOT soybean oil. In China, the spot basis is shifting to the May contract, and the first - quarter soybean imports are expected to decrease, which may reduce factory soybean oil inventories [1]. Meals - US soybeans: Lack trading highlights, with slow - growing Chinese demand and high crushing demand. South American new crops are progressing well with strong harvest expectations. The market is not optimistic about medium - to - long - term US soybean prices. - Domestic soybean meal: The loose supply pattern continues, but the market is speculating on longer soybean customs clearance times, and the 1 - 5 positive spread has strengthened. The spot pressure remains, but the future supply is expected to tighten [2]. Pigs - The market has some reluctance to sell, and the spot price is stable. The southern curing demand is increasing, but there are uncertainties in the December - January market due to the potential impact of the epidemic and secondary fattening. The overall supply pressure is large, and the price is hard to improve. The futures market is struggling to rise and has fallen in the past two days [4]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure below 15 cents per pound. Indian sugar production in Maharashtra is increasing. The overall raw sugar price is bearish. In China, the sugar price is weak due to the accelerated sugar - cane crushing in Guangxi and Yunnan, and the market is expected to remain in a weak - oscillating pattern [8][9]. Corn - North port corn prices rose slightly due to insufficient arrivals, while prices in the Northeast and North China were stable to weak. The demand side is cautious, with deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly making purchases based on rigid needs. The short - term corn futures are expected to oscillate, and the follow - up supply volume should be monitored [10]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, although the November national laying - hen inventory decreased slightly. The market has a normal sales speed, but the demand is weak. Egg prices are expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [14]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures fell due to weak US export demand. In China, Zhengzhou cotton faces increasing hedging pressure during the price increase, but the downstream demand is relatively strong, and the price decline space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the 14,000 pressure level [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On December 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,600 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 was 8,268 yuan, up 0.56%. The basis was 328 yuan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,964 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan on December 11, up 0.46%. The futures price of P2605 was 8,656 yuan, up 1.33%. The basis was - 75.51%. The import cost was 9,102.8 yuan, and the import profit was - 447 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,000 yuan on December 11, up 3.09%. The futures price of OI601 was 9,443 yuan, up 1.65%. The basis was 401 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 3,490 [1]. Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,060 yuan on December 11, up 0.66%. The futures price of M2605 was 2,750 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 310 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 23,830 [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,410 yuan on December 11, up 1.26%. The futures price of RM2605 was 2,323 yuan, down 0.26%. The basis was 87 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 0 [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,173 yuan, up 0.29%. The basis was - 233 yuan [2]. Pigs - **Futures**: The futures price of LH2605 was 11,820 yuan on December 11, down 0.17%. The futures price of LH2603 was 11,220 yuan, down 0.80%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 600 yuan, down 13.21%. The main - contract positions increased by 3.54% to 154,716, and the warehouse receipts increased by 40.21% to 523 [4]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 11,360 yuan, up 60 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11,330 yuan, up 130 yuan; in Sichuan, it was 12,000 yuan, up 200 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 11,390 yuan, up 90 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 12,460 yuan, unchanged; in Hunan, it was 11,160 yuan, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 11,660 yuan, up 160 yuan [4]. Sugar - **Futures**: The futures price of SR2601 was 5,358 yuan on December 11, up 0.56%. The futures price of SR2605 was 5,245 yuan, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 14.86 cents per pound, down 0.27%. The 1 - 5 spread was 113 yuan, up 9.71%. The main - contract positions increased by 62.10% to 391,467, and the warehouse receipts increased by 54.29% to 611 [8]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming was unchanged. The Nanning basis was 115 yuan, down 14.81%; the Kunming basis was 75 yuan, down 21.05%. The in - quota imported Brazilian sugar price was 4,100 yuan, up 2.07%, and the out - of - quota price was 5,195 yuan, up 2.12% [8]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of C2601 was 2,243 yuan on December 11, up 0.09%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,290 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis was 57 yuan, up 16.33%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 24 yuan, unchanged [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of CS2601 was 2,523 yuan, down 0.36%. The Changchun and Weifang spot prices were unchanged. The basis was 67 yuan, up 15.52%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan, down 1.92% [10]. Eggs - **Futures**: The futures price of JD01 was 3,144 yuan on December 11, down 0.29%. The futures price of JD02 was 2,968 yuan, down 0.40%. The 1 - 2 spread was 176 yuan, up 1.73%. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.09 yuan per catty, up 0.64%. The basis was - 57 yuan, up 33.37% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The futures price of CF2605 was 13,850 yuan on December 11, up 0.65%. The futures price of CF2601 was 13,860 yuan, up 0.58%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 64.00 cents per pound, down 0.19%. The 5 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan, up 50.00%. The main - contract positions decreased by 3.02% to 460,016, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.10% to 2,967 [16]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,835 yuan, up 0.03%. The CC Index 3128B was 15,013 yuan, up 0.06%. The FC Index M 1% was 12,898 yuan, up 0.40% [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may face a risk of weakening and falling after a short - term rebound, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak view. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures were boosted by Malaysian palm oil in the early session. - For soybean oil, the demand from the US renewable fuel industry remains resilient, but the international crude oil decline may drag down CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, the short - term market may be dragged down, but the import cost of soybeans will support the market and limit the decline of the basis. - The supply of domestic soybean meal remains loose overall, but the supply in some regions is tightening, and the basis has short - term support. The unilateral market is unlikely to show an upward trend, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [1]. Pig Industry - The supply - side pressure may be less than previously expected, but the demand lacks highlights. The price of pigs is expected to maintain a volatile and weak structure. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can continue to be held, and the unilateral price is expected to continue to bottom out [3]. Meal Industry - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, but the supply in some regions is tightening, providing short - term support for the basis. It is difficult to see an upward trend in the unilateral market. The market should continue to focus on domestic purchases of US and Brazilian soybeans, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile trend with light short - term trading [6]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short term, the futures price is strong and hits a new high due to tight supply and strong spot prices. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply and inventory changes. If they recover, it will limit the price increase space [8]. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower, and the raw sugar remains in a weak trend. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend [12]. Cotton Industry - In the short term, the cotton price will fluctuate within a range. ICE cotton futures closed slightly lower, supported by the weakening US dollar. In the domestic market, the purchase price of seed cotton is falling, and Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the support below is still strong [13]. Egg Industry - The supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, but overall pressure still exists. The market trading is light, and the terminal consumption is weak. The futures price is expected to maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8620 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2601 is 8286 yuan/ton, and the basis is 334 yuan/ton. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8720 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2601 is 8730 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 10 yuan/ton. The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January is 9195.1 yuan/ton, and the盘面 import profit is - 465 yuan/ton. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 10050 yuan/ton, the futures price of Ol601 is 9711 yuan/ton, and the basis is 330 yuan/ton [1]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract of live pigs is 11925 yuan/ton, the price of the January contract is 11490 yuan/ton, and the price of the May contract is 11925 yuan/ton. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan range from 11100 - 12410 yuan/ton. The sample slaughter volume increased by 0.25% to 210037, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.38% to 18.21 yuan/kg, and the weekly price of piglets decreased by 2.86% to 17.00 yuan/kg [3]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2601 is 3046 yuan/ton, and the basis is 14 yuan/ton. The盘面 import profit for Brazilian soybeans in February is 53 yuan/ton. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2400 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2601 is 2408 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 8 yuan/ton. The盘面 import profit for Canadian rapeseed in January is 670 yuan/ton [6]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: The price of the January contract is 2259 yuan/ton, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, and the basis is 41 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit is 59 yuan/ton, and the import profit is 352 yuan/ton. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the January contract is 2562 yuan/ton, the spot price in Changchun is 2590 yuan/ton, and the basis is 28 yuan/ton. The profit of Shandong starch is 1 yuan/ton [8]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 5366 yuan/ton, the price of the May contract is 5297 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar is 14.92 cents/pound. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming are 5420 yuan/ton and 5400 yuan/ton respectively. The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 9.17% to 1048.00 million tons [12]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 13780 yuan/ton, the price of the May contract is 13750 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton is 64.45 cents/pound. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton is 14862 yuan/ton, and the CC Index is 15005 yuan/ton. The commercial inventory increased by 24.2% to 363.97 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 4.9% to 93.14 million tons [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 3138 yuan/500KG, and the price of the February contract is 3052 yuan/500KG. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the producing area is 3.05 yuan/jin, the egg - to - feed ratio is 2.32, and the breeding profit is - 27.35 yuan/feather. The theoretical in - laying hen inventory in December is expected to decline [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: As the month - end approaches, the market focuses on export and production data. There is a risk of ending the rebound and falling again. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise and break through 8600 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean rises due to China's procurement, and CBOT豆油 may rise to 52 cents. However, domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory may increase, so it has no short - term upward momentum [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply of pigs accelerates, and the demand support is limited. Pig prices are expected to be in a weak and volatile structure. The strategy of inter - month reverse spread can be held, and the sustainability of the contract's rebound needs attention [3]. Meal - The domestic soybean meal market remains loose. The one - price rises with the market, and the basis drops slightly. The market is unlikely to have a continuous upward trend and may fall after a short - term rise [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - Due to factors such as logistics in the Northeast and demand in North China, the price of corn at the grass - roots level remains firm. However, there is still a large amount of grain to be sold, so the upward space is limited [7]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents/pound. The new sugar in Guangxi is on the market, and the market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern at the bottom this week [11]. Cotton - ICE US cotton futures are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. US cotton export sales data shows a decline. Domestically, Zheng cotton faces hedging pressure, but the basis is firm and demand has resilience, so the cotton price may fluctuate in a range in the short term [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have fallen below the feed cost line, and the decline space is limited. The market is clearing inventory, demand is recovering, and egg futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On November 27, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8560 yuan, up 1.18%; the futures price of Y2601 was 8224 yuan, up 0.91%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8390 yuan, up 1.21%; the futures price of P2601 was 8558 yuan, up 1.04%. The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10110 yuan, unchanged [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) was 222, up 11.00%; the palm oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) was - 62, down 6.90%; the rapeseed oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) was 233, down 16.49% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 60.71%. The price of LH2605 was 11990 yuan, down 0.58%; the price of LH2601 was 11585 yuan, up 0.39% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan was 11360 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11430 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [3]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 206827, up 0.47%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.28 yuan/kg, down 0.76% [3]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3030 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3055 yuan, up 1.33%. The basis of M2601 was - 25 yuan, down 266.67% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2470 yuan, up 1.23%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2469 yuan, up 1.23% [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 was 2243 yuan, up 0.36%. The import profit was 419 yuan, up 0.93%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning was 721, down 32.43% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2572 yuan, up 0.82%. The basis was 18 yuan, down 53.85% [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of SR2601 was 5403 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The price of SR2605 was 5322 yuan, up 0.30%. ICE raw sugar rose 1.48% to 15.12 cents/pound [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 125 yuan, down 11.35% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production cumulative value was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The national sugar sales cumulative value was 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of CF2605 was 13605 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The price of CF2601 was 13640 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 64.61 cents/pound [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14700 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The CC Index of 3128B was 14891 yuan/ton, up 0.06% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 363.97 million tons, up 24.2%. The industrial inventory was 93.14 million tons, up 4.9% [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of JD12 was 2947 yuan/500KG, up 0.96%. The price of JD01 was 3282 yuan/500KG, up 1.77% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 2.98 yuan/jin, up 1.20%. The basis was - 303 yuan/500KG, down 7.71% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: The egg - chicken chick price was 2.80 yuan/feather, down 3.57%. The culled - chicken price was 3.88 yuan/jin, down 3.96% [15].