Group 1 - The report highlights ongoing concerns regarding AI disruption, as evidenced by Nvidia's recent earnings report, which exceeded expectations but resulted in a significant stock price decline, indicating market apprehension about AI's impact on profitability [3][14][20] - There is a notable divergence between Nvidia's earnings per share (EPS) and stock price trends, with EPS rising while stock prices have weakened, reflecting investor skepticism about sustainable growth in AI-related revenues [3][14][24] - The report draws parallels between the current situation in the US tech sector and the decline of renewable energy assets in China in 2022, where rising capital expenditures did not translate into improved market valuations due to deteriorating fundamentals [3][20] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that Chinese assets are more resilient to AI disruption compared to US assets, as A-share companies are more concentrated in mining and manufacturing sectors, which are less susceptible to AI replacement [4][41] - Chinese companies generally have a higher proportion of tangible assets relative to total assets compared to their US counterparts, enhancing their ability to withstand potential AI-related shocks [4][41][47] - The manufacturing and materials sectors in China contribute a larger share of value-added compared to other major developed economies, positioning Chinese assets as valuable in the context of global investment [4][50] Group 3 - The report notes an increasing focus from overseas governments on strategic resource commodities, with initiatives like the US Treasury's "Treasury Plan" and Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium exports highlighting the geopolitical importance of these resources [5][51] - The demand for key minerals is rising at the government level, particularly in the US, where securing supply chains for critical minerals has become a strategic priority [5][51][56] - Supply-side dynamics are also shifting, as resource-rich countries are implementing policies that could disrupt supply and drive up prices, reflecting a trend towards resource nationalism [5][56][59] Group 4 - The report discusses the potential impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on oil prices, suggesting that if oil prices rise to $90 per barrel, it could reverse the downward trend in US inflation [6][63] - The relationship between oil price fluctuations and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth has weakened over the past three years, indicating a complex interaction between energy prices and inflation metrics [6][63]

- The report discusses the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to model price-volume data and future price trends, transforming these learned features into industry theme indices such as the CSI Smart Shipbuilding Industry Index, CSI Power Grid Equipment Theme Index, CSI Steel Index, and CSI Robotics Index[81][82][87] - The CNN model constructs standardized charts of price-volume data within specific time windows for individual stocks, which are then used to train the model to identify patterns and predict future price movements[81][82] - The CNN model's thematic allocation currently focuses on sectors like shipbuilding, power grids, steel, and robotics, as reflected in the indices mentioned above[81][82][87]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the metals industry, particularly focusing on non-ferrous metals due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts, particularly in Iran, are expected to drive demand for precious metals as a safe haven, while also benefiting metals with high military demand such as tungsten, titanium, and rare earths [1]. - The report emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook on non-ferrous metals, driven by supply-demand narratives and nationalism, recommending a focus on metals like gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and lithium [1]. - Short-term recommendations include focusing on bottom metals and those experiencing accelerated price increases, alongside new materials related to technology growth [1]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 235 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 8,845.5 billion and a circulating market value of 7,741.8 billion [2]. - The non-ferrous metals index showed a weekly increase of 6.09%, ranking third among various sectors, with energy metals leading at 9.32% [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month, six months, and twelve months stands at 5.5%, 54.6%, and 102.0% respectively, indicating strong growth [3]. - The report notes that the largest gainers in the non-ferrous sector include Yunnan Germanium, which saw a weekly increase of 37.77%, while the largest decliner was Haomei New Materials, with a drop of 5.15% [3]. Metal-Specific Insights - Copper production from the top 20 global mining companies is projected at 3,526 thousand metric tons for Q4 2025, reflecting a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 10.5% decrease year-on-year [1]. - Aluminum inventories in China reached 1,157,000 tons as of February 26, 2026, marking a 265,000-ton increase from the previous year, which is a significant high for the period [1]. - The report anticipates that geopolitical tensions may disrupt aluminum production in Iran, potentially leading to price increases [1][4]. Price Trends - The report indicates that silver prices have surged by 15.24% due to macroeconomic uncertainties and supply constraints, while silicon metal prices have decreased by 1.24% due to weak demand recovery [3]. - The report maintains a target price of $6,000 per ounce for gold in 2026, supported by geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets [4].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market continued its upward trend in February 2026, despite experiencing short-term fluctuations at the beginning of the month. The recommendation is to maintain a balanced investment style while slightly favoring growth, particularly in the technology sector and cyclical industries [1][7][59]. - The report highlights that the focus of China's economic strategy is shifting towards domestic demand, which is expected to drive economic recovery and stabilize property prices. This shift is seen as a long-term national strategy rather than a short-term policy [9][10][11]. - The report identifies high-prospect industries for investment, including non-ferrous metals, machinery, steel, defense, basic chemicals, and communications, suggesting a rotation strategy towards these sectors through ETFs [61]. Group 2 - The report notes that the performance of growth-style funds has outpaced that of balanced and value-style funds, with specific sectors like midstream manufacturing and upstream cyclical industries showing strong returns [44][45]. - The report mentions that in February 2026, a total of 109 new funds were established, with a total fundraising amount of 906.40 billion, marking the highest level for the same period in four years. The enthusiasm for equity funds remains high due to the recovering A-share market [51][52]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting funds with strong stock-picking and risk control capabilities, particularly in the context of the ongoing recovery in the A-share market [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", expecting a gain of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months[12] Core Viewpoints - On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel announced an attack on Iran, and the military conflict officially broke out. The market's reaction to this event is the focus of the report[5] - The geopolitical event has a pulse - like impact, benefiting gold, oil, energy - chemical, shipping, non - ferrous metals, and the bond market. The equity market's risk appetite may decline, but it's unwise to bet on war risks. In the long - term, it's too early to determine the direction, and four variables need to be monitored[3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Geopolitical Event Background - The US has been increasing troops in Iran since the beginning of the year, reaching the largest scale in nearly 23 years by the end of February. On February 27, Chinese and US embassies issued evacuation reminders, indicating a possible escalation of the conflict. The war unexpectedly broke out on February 28, right after Iran showed a willingness to compromise in the US - Iran negotiations[1][2] - The US's explicit demands are to terminate the nuclear program indefinitely, stop supporting regional agents, and halt the development of long - range ballistic missiles. Israel publicly stated its intention to "decapitate" Iran's supreme leader, possibly aiming to promote a "revolution"[2] Market Impact Short - term Impact - After the war broke out, short - term pulse - like trading of geopolitical premiums directly benefits crude oil, gold, and energy - chemical products such as methanol, LNG, fuel oil, PTA, and ethylene glycol. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz will also drive up container shipping on European routes. Non - ferrous metals, affected by the bull market, geopolitical premiums, and overseas supply and shipping risks, are also likely to rise, especially tin and lithium carbonate. In the bond market, the 10 - year interest rate dropped significantly on the day when only the inter - bank market was open, reversing the upward trend after the Shanghai real - estate policy adjustment[3] Equity Market - The risk appetite in the equity market may decline, but betting on war risks is unwise. A - shares have shown an independent trend since the US stock market started to fluctuate sideways in late October last year. The "Halo trading" and geopolitical targets are in the same direction, strengthening sectors such as non - ferrous metals, chemicals, and shipping. The technology sector is not the short - term trading focus, and the large - scale use of Claude by the US military has made AI applications more popular. Even if it experiences marginal adjustments due to the decline in risk appetite and the structural seesaw effect, it presents an opportunity to enter the market[4] Long - term Considerations - It's too early to determine the long - term direction. Four variables will affect the duration of the war: Trump needs to balance domestic and foreign affairs during the mid - term election year and in the face of domestic inflation; Trump's possible visit to China in March - April may determine the short - term global security environment; the US's involvement in the Iran war is not conducive to its long - term competition with China; and Iran's ability to withstand pressure and the possibility of seeking peace. In the complex geopolitical information game, domestic market participants do not have an information advantage, and price signals are more reliable than complex news[5][6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, the overseas supply of electrolytic aluminum may be affected, and the overseas aluminum ingot pricing is expected to rise. The internal and external price difference tends to be positive, and it is recommended to go long on the aluminum plant's profit, i.e., long AL and short AO [3]. - The short - term micro - demand for electrolytic aluminum is still weak, while the spot price of alumina has a small weekly increase and a small inventory accumulation [4]. - In terms of trading, the price difference, trading volume, and open interest of aluminum and alumina have changed. The open - interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum and alumina has declined [5][19]. - In terms of inventory, the inventories of bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and processed materials have different trends, such as the increase in bauxite port inventory and the significant increase in electrolytic aluminum inventory this week [24][55]. - In terms of production, the production capacity utilization rate of alumina remains stable, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the production of downstream processed materials shows different trends [73][79][82]. - In terms of profit, the profit of alumina in January decreased slightly, the profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the processing profit of downstream products is still at a low level [93][102][103]. - In terms of consumption, the import and export profits and losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have changed, the export of aluminum products has declined slightly, and the consumption absolute volume shows that the commercial housing transaction area is at a low level and the automobile sales volume is flat year - on - year [112][114][117]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Situation Impacted by the Middle East Situation - The escalation of the Middle East situation may lead to the opening of the window period for the supply interruption of overseas commodities. The total electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East accounts for about 9.4% of the global total, and the total alumina production accounts for about 3.2%. It is estimated that the annual export volume affected is 4.6 million tons, and the monthly impact may be about 380,000 tons [3]. - The supply chain of bauxite and alumina, the raw materials of electrolytic aluminum, is fragile. If the transportation channel is restricted, it will affect the production and supply capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East [3]. - If the war lasts for a long time, the overseas aluminum ingot pricing is expected to rise, and the internal and external price difference tends to be positive. It is recommended to go long on the aluminum plant's profit, i.e., long AL and short AO [3]. 2. Micro - demand and Spot Situation - The short - term micro - demand for electrolytic aluminum is still weak. As of February 26, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 261,000 tons to 1.175 million tons compared with before the Spring Festival. The downstream processing profit is at a low level [4]. - The spot price of alumina has a small weekly increase and a small inventory accumulation. The spot prices in different regions are different, and the inventory in different statistical calibers has increased [4]. 3. Trading - end Data - **Price Difference**: This week, the A00 spot premium and discount weakened, while the alumina spot premium and discount strengthened. The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum is relatively stable [7][10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts have increased significantly. The open - interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum and alumina has declined [5][13][19]. 4. Inventory Situation - **Bauxite**: The port inventory and inventory days of bauxite have increased. The inventory of bauxite in alumina enterprises decreased in January. The port shipment volume and sea - floating inventory of Guinea bauxite have increased, while those of Australia have decreased. The outbound and inbound volumes of bauxite have changed [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The total inventory of alumina continues to accumulate. The inventory in the alumina plant and the electrolytic aluminum plant has decreased, while the port inventory and the inventory in transit have increased [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased significantly. According to the seasonal change rule, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory usually reaches the peak in the fifth or sixth week after the Spring Festival and then enters the de - stocking cycle [55]. - **Processed Materials**: The spot inventory and in - plant inventory of aluminum rods have increased. The raw material and finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets and foils have mostly increased slightly [59][61]. 5. Production Situation - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite supply remains stable. The production of domestic bauxite in February decreased slightly. The production of bauxite in different provinces has different trends [66][69]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity utilization rate of alumina remains stable. The weekly operating capacity decreased by 800,000 tons, and the production of metallurgical - grade alumina this week was 1.787 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with last week [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, but the production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly in January. The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 859,500 tons, a slight increase of 200 tons compared with last week. The proportion of molten aluminum has a seasonal decline [79]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods remained flat this week. The production of aluminum rods decreased by 1,900 tons, and the production of aluminum sheets and foils increased by 7,900 tons. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased by 4.2% [82][83]. 6. Profit Situation - **Alumina**: The profit of alumina decreased slightly in January. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while the profit in Guangxi performed better [93]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, but the complex global macro - economic situation and overseas geopolitical conflicts have increased uncertainty and interfered with market expectations [102]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods remained flat this week, and the downstream processing profit is still at a low level [103]. 7. Consumption Situation - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have increased. The export of aluminum products decreased slightly in December 2025 [112][114]. - **Consumption Absolute Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area is at a low level, and the automobile sales volume is flat year - on - year [117].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the A-share market in March, indicating a potential for a strong performance driven by favorable policies and external conditions [1][5][9]. Core Insights - Historical analysis shows that A-shares tend to exhibit volatility in March, influenced by policy changes and external events, with a notable increase in fundamental factors post the National People's Congress (NPC) [5][6]. - The report anticipates that March 2026 will see a continuation of the spring market trend, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors, particularly favoring small and mid-cap stocks [1][24]. - The report highlights that sectors with high earnings growth, such as automotive, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, are expected to outperform in March [1][24]. Summary by Sections Section 1: March A-share Market Outlook - Historical data indicates that only 7 out of the last 16 years saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise in March, with performance largely dictated by policy and external events [5][6]. - The report predicts a relatively strong performance for A-shares in March 2026, supported by potentially positive NPC policies and limited external risks [1][9]. Section 2: Industry Allocation - The report emphasizes a focus on technology growth and certain cyclical industries in March, suggesting that these sectors may continue to outperform [1][24]. - Historical trends show that growth and consumption styles have led the market in March, driven by policy support and industry trends [26][28]. - The report identifies that small and mid-cap stocks may have an advantage in March, supported by favorable liquidity conditions and rising commodity prices [1][24][28]. Section 3: Economic and Earnings Recovery - Economic indicators suggest a continuation of weak recovery trends in March, with consumer confidence on the rise and retail sales expected to improve due to supportive policies [18][19]. - Earnings growth is projected to rebound in March, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals, driven by rising commodity prices and demand in technology sectors [19][20].

Group 1 - The economic goals for 2026 are set to be more pragmatic, with GDP growth target adjusted to 4.5-5.0%, CPI target maintained at around 2%, and urban unemployment rate around 5.5% [4][5][6] - The macroeconomic policy is expected to maintain continuity, with a focus on enhancing the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies, emphasizing support for consumption, investment in people, and social welfare [2][6][8] - The government aims to expand domestic demand as a primary task, promoting a virtuous cycle between supply and demand through new demand leading to new supply [8][12] Group 2 - The A-share market is anticipated to be driven by policy catalysts, with a focus on industry themes and opportunities, characterized by rapid style switching and policy hot spots rotation [16][17] - Key investment themes include the "anti-involution" concept driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery, as well as technology growth sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and new energy [17][22] - The "anti-involution" index has significantly outperformed the CSI 300 index, indicating strong market interest in sectors that focus on quality and efficiency improvements [22][27]

. 镍不锈钢产业链周报 2026/2/27 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：陈乃轩 Z0023138 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant increase in trading volume post-holiday, with a notable shift in market style towards cyclical resource stocks, while small and mid-cap stocks maintained high elasticity [3][4][6]. - The market's risk appetite has been restored, leading to a strong performance in small-cap indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000, which outperformed large-cap blue chips [4][6]. Performance Summary - The CSI 1000 index led the market with a notable increase, reflecting a broader trend of funds flowing into high-elasticity stocks [4][6]. - The materials sector surged by 8.03%, and the energy sector rose by 6.31%, marking them as the top-performing sectors of the week, indicating a shift from "technology growth" to "cyclical value" [8][16]. - Only 5 out of 35 Wind secondary industries reported negative returns, highlighting a general upward trend across the market [16]. Sector Rotation - The materials and energy sectors emerged as the leading themes, with significant weekly gains, while previously strong technology growth sectors faced corrections [8][16]. - The media and entertainment sector saw a decline of 4.46%, indicating a "valuation kill" for AI applications, media, and gaming sectors that were previously active [16]. Trading Volume and Activity - Daily trading volume exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, with a notable increase of over 300 billion yuan compared to the previous week, indicating heightened market participation [20][21]. - The turnover rate for the market increased by approximately 0.5 percentage points, with the information technology and materials sectors leading in trading activity [21][26]. Capital Flow - Despite the index's strength, there was a net outflow of 766.85 billion yuan from main funds throughout the week, with a peak outflow of 300.45 billion yuan on February 26 [31][35]. - The materials sector was the only one to see significant net inflows, while the TMT sector faced substantial selling pressure [32][35]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment improved significantly, with an average of 93.5 stocks hitting the daily limit up, and the number of limit down stocks decreasing sharply [40][44]. - Margin trading balances increased by over 442 billion yuan, indicating a return of leveraged funds to the market, contributing to the upward momentum [40][45]. Upcoming Focus - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to bring attention to key policy areas such as ecological protection and regional coordinated development, which may influence market direction [48][49].