Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The pessimistic sentiment in the black commodities market is receding, leading to a bottom - up rebound. The glass and soda ash markets show a divergence between futures and spot prices due to cautious downstream procurement. The double - silicon market has a stabilized sentiment with alloy prices oscillating [1][3]. - Glass has a severe supply - demand contradiction with high inventory and lack of substantial production cuts. Soda ash faces continuous supply - demand surplus pressure and strong de - stocking pressure [1]. - For silicon manganese, low production due to profit issues and high inventory suppress prices, while manganese ore cost provides support. Silicon iron production is at a low level, but demand has some resilience, and short - term prices are affected by costs [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Futures rebounded significantly yesterday, but spot trading was weak with mainly rigid demand procurement and low speculative sentiment. Soda ash: Futures rose sharply following black commodities, while downstream procurement was cautious with mainly rigid demand replenishment [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction is severe, high inventory suppresses prices, and there is no substantial production cut. Long - term losses are needed to clear excess capacity, and later changes in production lines and raw material prices should be monitored. Soda ash: With new production projects coming online, the supply - demand surplus persists, and there is strong de - stocking pressure. Prices will be under pressure until the surplus situation eases, and attention should be paid to intermittent production line maintenance and new production [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating. Soda ash: Oscillating. No cross - period or cross - variety strategies are recommended [2]. Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: Futures oscillated and rebounded with black commodities yesterday. The spot market was stable, and factories were reluctant to sell at low prices. The price in the northern and southern markets was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton. Silicon Iron: Futures oscillated. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: Production is at a low level due to industry profits, iron - water production has slightly declined but remains high, and demand has some resilience. High factory inventory and registered warehouse receipts suppress prices, while low - level manganese ore port inventory has slightly increased, and falling manganese ore prices support alloy costs. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply side. Silicon Iron: Production has dropped to the lowest level in recent years due to enterprise losses, high iron - water maintains demand resilience, factory inventory de - stocking is weakening, downstream inventory is low, and short - term prices are affected by costs. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating. Silicon Iron: Oscillating [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - There is a shortage of high-end special glass fiber, and the report continues to recommend African building materials [2][6] - Cement prices are expected to rise, while glass inventory has slightly accumulated [8] - The report recommends focusing on the African supply chain and domestic substitution chain, with leading companies being the main focus for the year [10] Summary by Sections Special Glass Fiber - Low CTE glass fiber fabric is in short supply, with major manufacturers like Mitsubishi Gas Chemical issuing delayed delivery notices, extending lead times to 4-5 months [6] - The demand for advanced packaging materials, particularly for AI GPUs, is driving supply constraints in high-end Low CTE glass fiber fabric [6] - China National Materials Technology is expected to benefit significantly due to rapid capacity expansion and product upgrades, with an anticipated monthly capacity of approximately 6 million meters by the end of 2026 [6] Cement Market - The domestic cement market saw a slight increase in demand, with an average shipment rate of 48% in key regions, up by about 1.4 percentage points month-on-month but down 5.5% year-on-year [8][24] - The national average cement price decreased by 0.8% month-on-month, with some regions planning to increase prices in June [8][25] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market is experiencing weak demand, with prices continuing to decline [9][36] - The production capacity utilization rate is at 81.65%, with a total of 285 production lines and a daily melting capacity of 159,205 tons [9][36] - Inventory levels have increased slightly, with a total of 57.89 million weight boxes in key monitored provinces, reflecting a 0.26% increase [9][36] Recommendations - The report actively recommends companies like Keda Manufacturing in the African supply chain, which has advantages in production, channels, and brand [10] - For domestic substitution, companies such as China National Materials Technology, Mega Chip Color, and Puyang Huicheng are highlighted due to their strong positions in the market [10] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the existing building materials sector, particularly in renovation and public construction [10]

Macro - The global economic system is undergoing reconstruction due to changes in the trust foundation, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" primarily driven by non-economic factors, particularly international relations [2] - The long-term bull market for gold is expected to be historical and significant, as the trend of declining trust among countries is unlikely to change [2] - In the short to medium term, attention should be paid to the potential decline in dollar credit and the risks of rising real interest rates and inflation expectations in the US [2][3] Strategy - The "transformation bull" market in China's stock market is becoming clearer, with a strategic outlook favoring 2025 [6] - Key drivers include the decline in risk-free rates and a systemic reduction in risk perception, which will help restore investor confidence [6] - Investment opportunities are emerging in sectors such as financials, emerging technologies, and cyclical consumption, with specific recommendations for stocks in these areas [7][8] Overseas Strategy - The Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to lead the market, driven by the AI industry cycle [11] - The fundamentals of Hong Kong's tech sector are improving, with strong growth in capital expenditure and cloud business revenues [12] - Despite uncertainties in the trade environment, domestic policy support is expected to drive fundamental recovery in the Hong Kong market [13] Fixed Income - The bond market is expected to experience a bull market due to supply-demand mismatches, with low interest rates driving demand for convertible bonds [34] - Strategies focusing on short-term interest rates are recommended, with an emphasis on maintaining duration without chasing long-term bonds [29] Real Estate - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with improving supply-demand dynamics in key cities and a narrowing of cumulative declines post-policy adjustments [41] - The industry is expected to benefit from a clearer policy direction and a supportive environment for first-time homebuyers [41] Construction Engineering - The construction sector is focusing on high-dividend central state-owned enterprises and technology transformation [48] - Significant growth is anticipated in sectors such as intelligent computing and low-altitude economy development [48][49] Utilities - The electricity market is expected to see a bottoming out of spot prices, with both valuation and performance improving [53] - The nuclear power sector is projected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 110 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2030 [54] Transportation - The aviation industry is entering a low-growth supply era, with demand expected to drive ticket prices upward [57] - The highway sector is anticipated to maintain strong demand, with policies likely to enhance long-term investment value [60]

Production Side - As of the fourth week of May, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.89%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 42.64%, increasing by 0.83 percentage points month-on-month[3] - The cement mill operating rate was at a low level of 41.83%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The inventory of rebar was 186.42 million tons, down 0.69 percentage points month-on-month[3] Demand Side - In May, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 201.56 million square meters, down 2.12% month-on-month[60] - The land transaction area was 903.48 million square meters, down 5.97% month-on-month[60] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 60,823 units, up 18.85% month-on-month[89] Price Trends - The average price of cement was 368.33 yuan/ton, down 1.61% month-on-month[72] - The price of rebar was 3,077.13 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month-on-month[73] - The PPI for copper was 77,042 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month-on-month[99]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The demand for high-end electronic fabrics is accelerating, leading to a new round of competition among fiberglass companies. The shortage of low thermal expansion coefficient (Low CTE) glass fabric raw materials and the surge in order demand have resulted in significantly extended delivery times for BT materials, confirming the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in high-end electronic fabrics. The rapid development of the AI industry is driving hardware upgrades, increasing the demand for high-speed, high-frequency PCB boards, which in turn raises the performance requirements for upstream electronic fabrics [4] - The report suggests focusing on companies with existing or potential layouts in high-end electronic fabrics, such as Honghe Technology, Zhongcai Technology, and China Jushi [4] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index (Shenwan) rose by 0.2%, while the cement, glass fiber, and renovation materials indices fell by 0.2%, 0.2%, and rose by 0.6% respectively. The top five gainers included Zhongqi New Materials (+20.5%) and Honghe Technology (+17.1%) [9] 2. Industry Dynamics - In May, the average price of new homes in 100 major cities in China rose by 0.30% month-on-month to 16,815 RMB per square meter, while the average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.71% year-on-year [14] - The sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies in the first five months of 2025 was 1,443.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8% [14] - The balance of real estate loans in RMB at the end of the first quarter of 2025 was 53.54 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.04% [14] 3. Data Tracking 3.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide was 367.8 RMB per ton, down 3.0 RMB per ton month-on-month and down 6.3% year-on-year [15] - The cement inventory ratio was 65.7%, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [15] 3.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass was 1,370.3 RMB per ton, down 24.6 RMB per ton month-on-month and down 409.5 RMB per ton year-on-year [32] 3.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass was 13.6 RMB per square meter, down 0.1 RMB per square meter month-on-month [37] 3.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn was 4,705.0 RMB per ton, unchanged month-on-month and up 40.0 RMB per ton year-on-year [43] 3.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber was 72.5 RMB per kilogram, unchanged month-on-month and down 5.0 RMB per kilogram year-on-year [46]

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持建材行业"增持"评级。该行假设建材实物需求量在2025 年迎来本轮下滑的尾声，核心依据在于产业链已经先后转入缩表周期。该行对于建材板块的关键词 是："龟兔赛跑"，该行将供给改善比喻成龟，需求收缩比喻成兔，供给优化追上需求收缩的盈利改善契 机正在到来。大宗行业或迎来单位盈利中枢的底部反弹，消费建材价格竞争和费用有望同步改善。建材 板块估值和机构配置处于低位，龙头公司投资价值持续凸显。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 水泥行业：协同共识增强，盈利修复高确定性 2024年水泥需求在地产调整与基建托底减弱下承压，25年地产拖累减弱叠加基建资金改善下，需求压力 收窄企稳预期增强，25Q1降幅显著收窄正在兑现。24年行业重返协同，24Q4首次旺季错峰提价实质落 地盈利显著改善，25年观察行业保利润共识继续增强，25Q1价格及盈利同比明显改善，奠定全年良好 基础，25Q2观察在高基数下以稳为主，全年展望盈利中枢修复具备高确定性。长期供需格局的改善政 策预期亦在逐步落地。推荐水泥板块龙头公司海螺水泥，华新水泥，天山股份，上峰水泥，塔牌集团， 华润建材科技等。 消费建材：格局走向固化，行业盈 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Oscillating [6] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [6] - Scrap Steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Coking Coal: Oscillating Weakly [10] - Glass: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Soda Ash: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the macro - sentiment was weak, and the US further imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing the prices of black building materials to decline. However, the actual impact of tariffs was limited, and there were rumors of Mongolia increasing resource taxes, leading to a price rebound at night. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the manufacturing's rush for exports is less than expected. Although some electric furnaces and blast furnaces are in the red, the overall profitability provides cost support. Low valuations drive price rebounds, but the upside is limited [1][2]. - In terms of iron elements, the overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. The new projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2]. - For carbon elements, the coking coal production remains high, and the Mongolian coal port clearance is also at a high level, resulting in a loose supply. The coke production is at a high level, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The coking coal inventory pressure upstream is increasing, and it's difficult to find price support [2]. - Regarding alloys, the arrival of South32 Australian ore at the port increases the pressure on oxidized ore spot. The ban on manganese ore exports by Gabon has no obvious impact on the domestic market. With the recovery of manganese ore shipments, the port inventory is rising, and the cost drag persists. The ferrosilicon supply increases slightly, and the downstream is eager to reduce inventory. The glass demand decline in the off - season is not obvious, and the supply - side news can cause market fluctuations. The soda ash supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Core Logic: The overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. New projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high, so the annual molten iron output is expected to be higher than last year. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The black sector rebounded last night, and iron ore also rose slightly [2][6]. - Outlook: The US tariff policy has limited actual negative impact on iron ore, but may cause pessimistic sentiment. Considering the uncertain policies, the tight supply - demand balance, and the fact that the price has factored in many negative factors, the room for further significant decline is limited [6]. Steel - Core Logic: The domestic policy is in a vacuum, and there are still tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand outlook is weak. The molten iron output is high, and the steel production has increased. Although the supply - demand fundamentals improved this week and the inventory decreased, the falling raw material prices and pessimistic demand expectations suppress the price [6]. - Outlook: The fundamentals improved this week, but the outlook is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The post - holiday scrap steel arrival was low, and the loss during off - peak electricity hours increased. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The supply was tight after the holiday, and the demand from electric furnaces and blast furnaces was affected. The inventory increased slightly [7]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace loss is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Coke - Core Logic: The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the market is pessimistic. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening as the molten iron output declines and the off - season approaches [7][9]. - Outlook: The falling coking coal price weakens the cost support, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [9]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The market trading atmosphere is weak, and coal mines face shipment pressure. The supply is still loose as the production remains high and the Mongolian coal port clearance is high. The coke production is high, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The upstream inventory pressure is increasing [10]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic, the supply - demand is loose, and the high inventory suppresses the price. The price is expected to remain weak [10]. Glass - Core Logic: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, and the deep - processing demand improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. There was cold - repair and复产, and the supply pressure remains. The inventory decreased slightly, and the market is sensitive to supply - side news [3][11]. - Outlook: The real - world demand faces pressure in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts in Hubei [11]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The supply pressure persists as some enterprises' production has recovered. The demand for heavy alkali is for rigid needs, and the increase in float glass daily melting is uncertain. The short - term inventory decreased due to maintenance, but the long - term surplus remains [11]. - Outlook: The supply surplus remains, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [11]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon manganese price was weak. The cost pressure is high as the market is bearish on raw materials, and the South32 Australian ore is arriving at the port. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak as the black market enters the off - season [13]. - Outlook: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to continue to decline as the manganese ore inventory rises and the coke price is falling [13]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon price was weak. The supply increased slightly as some furnaces were restarted. The demand is weak as the steel market enters the off - season and the metal magnesium market is sluggish [14]. - Outlook: The supply and demand are both weak, and the demand may weaken further. The price is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: After OPEC's production increase in July, the previous negative factors were exhausted. With the threat of wildfires in Canada and rising geopolitical risks, combined with short - term macro - stability, oil prices are strong in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to relatively weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited. The short - term Brent price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range moving up to $65 - 68 per barrel, and the medium - term range is expected to be $63 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - Asphalt: The overall supply - demand pattern is loose. Although the cost of crude oil has increased, the market's acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has a certain upward trend [3][4]. - Liquefied gas: In the international market, the CP price has increased, while the FEI has decreased. In the domestic market, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased the pressure on the market, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. The supply from Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East is expected to decline, while the demand for seasonal power generation is supportive. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [9][11]. - Natural gas: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - PX: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [14][16]. - PTA: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [17][18]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [20][21]. - Short - fiber: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [22][23]. - Bottle - chip: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [24][26]. - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [26][27]. - PVC: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, with supply increasing and demand affected by real estate and export uncertainties [29][30]. - Caustic soda: The 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish. Although there is still some support in the short - term, the upward driving force for the spot price is weakening [30][31]. - Plastic and PP: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [32][34]. - Glass: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34][37]. - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [38][40]. - Urea: The daily output is at a high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as international price changes, compound fertilizer production, and export policies. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [41][42]. - Methanol: The international supply is still high, the domestic supply is loose, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. The price is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds [43][45]. - Log: The downstream market is still sluggish, and the long - term market faces challenges from weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory. However, the large scale difference in delivery has a certain supporting effect on the current price [45][48]. - Double - offset paper: The market was weak in May, and in June, short - term technical rebounds may occur, but long - term risks from over - capacity and weak demand need to be vigilant [48][49]. - Corrugated paper: In May, the demand showed structural improvement, but in June, attention should be paid to factors such as the implementation of price - increase policies, export order sustainability, and waste - paper price fluctuations [50]. - Natural rubber: The domestic inventory is still at a high level, and the production index of French rubber machinery has decreased. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [51][54]. - Pulp: The domestic and foreign paper - making industries have shown signs of production reduction, which is negative for the SP single - side. The short - term trading strategy is to try to go long on a small scale [54][56]. - Butadiene rubber: The short - term supply contraction has led to price increases, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the expansion of downstream ABS capacity. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [58][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 contract settled at $63.41, up $0.89 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%; Brent2508 contract settled at $65.63, up $1.00 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.55%. SC main contract 2507 rose 12.4 to 465 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it rose 4.0 to 469 yuan per barrel [1]. - Related News: The US has asked countries to submit their best trade negotiation plans by Wednesday. The US labor market is showing signs of softening, with an increase in job vacancies but also a large increase in layoffs [1]. - Logic Analysis: After OPEC's production increase, the previous negative factors were exhausted. Geopolitical risks have risen, and the macro - situation is stable in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are expected to weaken; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2507 closed at 3524 points (+1.21%) in the night session, and BU2509 closed at 3495 points (+1.13%) in the night session. The spot price in Shandong on June 3 was 3470 - 3870 yuan, in the East China region was 3550 - 3620 yuan, and in the South China region was 3360 - 3450 yuan [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong rose by 25 yuan per ton. The demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has increased [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is mainly stable. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [6]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2507 closed at 4075 (+0.27%) in the night session, and PG2508 closed at 4004 (+0.18%) in the night session. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong is given [6]. - Related News: The market in South China is generally stable, with some hidden discounts. The market in Shandong is stable with some small increases, and the ether - post - carbon - four market is expected to rise steadily [7]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the CP price has increased, and the FEI has decreased. Domestically, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased market pressure, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 contract closed at 2943 (-0.03%) in the night session, and LU07 closed at 3535 (+1.61%) in the night session. The Singapore paper - futures market's month - to - month spreads are given [9]. - Related News: Russia's exports of some oil products are expected to change in June, and Nigeria's Dangote refinery will import a large amount of US WTI crude oil in July [9]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [11]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread when the price is low [12]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH contract closed at 3.7 (+0.76%), TTF closed at 35.848 (+2.38%), and JKM closed at 12.345 (+1.69%) [12]. - Logic Analysis: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH on dips; TTF is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6524 (-1.42%) during the day and 6618 (+1.44%) in the night session. The spot price, MOPJ valuation, and PXN spread are given [14]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [15]. - Logic Analysis: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [16]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4628 (-1.53%) during the day and 4706 (+1.69%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [17]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and a PTA device has restarted [15][18]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4306 (-0.99%) during the day and 4319 (+0.30%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [18][19]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and some EG devices have restarted or are under maintenance [20]. - Logic Analysis: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [21]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; basis positive spread; sell call options [22]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6338 (-0.72%) during the day and 6426 (+1.39%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions is given [22]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [23]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [23]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; short PTA and long PF; options are on hold [24]. Bottle - chip - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 5912 (-1.17%) during the day and 5958 (+0.78%) in the night session. The spot price of polyester bottle - chips is given [24]. - Related News: The export quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories are mostly stable [25]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [26]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation consolidation; options are on hold; sell call options [26]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7018 (-1.71%) during the day and 7133 (+1.64%) in the night session. The spot price and basis in different periods are given [26]. - Related News: The inventory in the East China main port of styrene has increased, and the upstream pure - benzene port inventory has also increased [26]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [27]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation weakly; options are on hold; sell call options [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot price of PVC has slightly decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda in different regions has changed [29]. - Related News: The price of caustic soda in some factories has changed, and the Indian BIS hearing has no news yet [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, and caustic soda's 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go short on caustic soda at high prices and hold short positions on PVC; for arbitrage, arrange a 7 - 9 reverse spread when the spot weakens; options are on hold [32]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: The spot price of LLDPE in different regions has changed, and the spot price of PP in different regions has decreased [32]. - Related News: The maintenance ratio of PE and PP has decreased [33]. - Logic Analysis: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [34]. - Trading Strategy: Short - and medium - term weakness, hold short positions; options are on hold; arbitrage is on hold [34]. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures 09 - contract closed at 954 (-2.85%) during the day and 965 (+1.15%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [34][35]. - Related News: The China May Caixin Manufacturing PMI has contracted, and the price of the domestic float - glass market has decreased slightly. A glass production line has restarted [36]. - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [37]. - Trading Strategy: Price oscillates weakly [38]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda - ash futures 09 - contract closed at 1185 (-1.2%) during the day and 1213 (+2.4%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [38]. - Related News: A soda - ash device has resumed operation, and the domestic soda - ash market is adjusting weakly [39][40]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [40]. - Trading Strategy: Bearish judgment, gradual

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results after the Dragon Boat Festival, with significant gains in gold, silver, and crude oil, while declines were noted in butadiene rubber, No. 20 rubber, glass, coking coal, polysilicon, and industrial silicon [1] - The chief non-ferrous analyst from Guosen Futures indicated that short-term volatility in precious metals will increase, necessitating close monitoring of U.S. tariff policies and changes in geopolitical risks [1] - If trade tensions escalate or geopolitical conflicts intensify, COMEX gold could rise to around $3,450 per ounce, while silver may show stronger elasticity due to its industrial properties and expectations of interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Glass and Silicon Industry Insights - The decline in glass, polysilicon, and industrial silicon prices is attributed to high inventory levels among production companies, leading to significant pressure to reduce prices for sales [1] - The glass industry is experiencing both maintenance and production resumption, with sufficient potential supply capacity that could trigger more production if industry profits improve [1] - Industrial silicon prices have reached new lows, with supply continuing to grow despite the price decline, as production costs in the southwestern region decrease [2] Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - On the first trading day after the holiday, A-shares saw all major indices rise, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, and total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke upward on May 6 and has since oscillated within the 3,300 to 3,400 point range, facing upward moving average pressure for major indices [2]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1185 231 | -14 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 14 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 954 1438866 | -28 17164 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1561412 | 51077 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -196915 | 47021 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -206160 | 5691 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 2062 | 0 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 10 | 3 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -60 | 1 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 50 | 14 | | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | 114 | 24 | | | | | ...