Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on price fluctuations in the energy and black upstream sectors, as well as policy implementation in high - tech and transportation infrastructure industries [1][2]. - It also provides an overview of the current situation in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream of different industries, including price changes,开工率, and sales volume [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: High - temperature and high - humidity weather has led to a continuous increase in the national power consumption level. From August 4th to 6th, the power load in the operating area of the State Grid Corporation reached a record high of 1.233 billion kilowatts, an increase of 53 million kilowatts compared to last year's peak of 1.18 billion kilowatts. Shanghai has issued a development plan for the embodied intelligence industry, aiming to achieve more than 20 core algorithm and technology breakthroughs by 2027, with the core industry scale exceeding 50 billion yuan [1]. - **Service Industry**: Three departments including the Ministry of Transport have issued a plan for the new round of rural road improvement, aiming to complete 300,000 kilometers of new and reconstructed rural roads by 2027 [2]. 3.2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International oil prices have dropped significantly recently. Egg prices and glass prices have also declined [3]. - **Mid - stream**: The operating rate of PTA has decreased, while that of pig products has increased slightly [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a three - year low. Domestic film box office has increased during the summer vacation [3]. 3.3. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The report provides credit spread data for various industries as of August 7th, showing different trends in each industry's credit spreads compared to the previous year, the first quarter, one month ago, and last week [46]. 3.4. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The report presents price data for multiple industries as of August 6th, including agriculture, non - ferrous metals, black metals, non - metals, energy, chemicals, and real estate. Most prices have shown a downward trend, with some exceptions such as coal prices [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [2] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4] Core Views - Market expectations have boosted steel prices, leading to a slight rebound, while glass and soda ash are oscillating, and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy prices are rising [1][3] - Glass supply lacks policy - driven contraction, and real - estate drags down demand. Although speculative demand has increased and inventories are decreasing, they remain at a high level. In the long run, supply - demand remains loose [1] - Soda ash production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, but may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase [1] - Silicomanganese production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased [3] - Ferrosilicon production is gradually recovering, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Summary by Category Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.93%. Downstream procurement is cautious [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply shows no policy - driven contraction, real - estate drags down demand. Speculative demand has increased, and factory inventories are decreasing but remain high. Market trading sentiment has cooled after important meetings. In the long run, supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to the delivery of the 09 contract and industry capacity reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 1.78%. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash has slightly increased, and downstream buyers purchase based on low - price demand [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, and may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the supply side [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market was strong, with the main contract rising 4.27%. Factory开工 enthusiasm is high, and prices have been slightly adjusted. The price in the northern market is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is about 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly to a medium level in recent years. Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased. Attention should be paid to inventory and ore shipments [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market was boosted by the black - metal sector and oscillated upward. Market sentiment has improved, and prices are stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area is 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production is gradually recovering, apparent demand has decreased, enterprises have profits, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long run, capacity is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the news of coal mine production restrictions fermented again, driving up the futures prices. The fundamentals of the black industry have not changed significantly, and the inventory pressure at each link is not high. Before the important event, the production restriction time is approaching, and steel prices have strong support. Coal and coke supplies have not fully recovered, and inventories are being depleted, making prices susceptible to positive news. There may also be continuous influence from macro - positive news. Before the spot pressure appears, prices have room for further rebound. The futures prices have high volatility, and capital behavior dominates the market. It is recommended to wait and avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand [1][2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased as expected. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased again, but steel production in some areas decreased due to rainfall, though it remained high year - on - year. Due to low arrivals and high demand, iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in port congestion, and at factories decreased. After the macro - sentiment cooled, iron ore prices dropped slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2]. Carbon Element - The overall supply is temporarily stable. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week exceeded 1,200 vehicles, reaching a high for the year, and imports remained high. Coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Affected by the recent decline in futures prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders increased, and the spot market sentiment cooled. However, upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports [2]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The manganese ore market has more wait - and - see sentiment, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high, so the downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, as manufacturers' profitability improves, the复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the current supply - demand relationship is healthy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3]. Glass - In the off - season, glass demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass increased month - on - month, indicating speculative purchases by downstream. After the futures prices dropped, the spot market sentiment cooled, middle - stream sales increased, and upstream production and sales declined significantly. On the supply side, two production lines are yet to produce glass, and one line has been cold - repaired, with the overall daily melting expected to remain stable. Upstream inventories have decreased slightly, and there are no prominent contradictions, but market sentiment fluctuates a lot. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, but it may recur. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term both in futures and spot [3][6]. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After this round of negative feedback was triggered, prices dropped rapidly in the short term and are at a discount to the spot. It is expected to oscillate in the future. In the long run, the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the steel and coal industries remains high. Driven by cost, the futures prices are firm. Spot steel sales are average. Last week, some steel mills had short - term maintenance and iron - water transfer, resulting in a decrease in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. In the off - season, affected by typhoons, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, and inventories increased slightly; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased, and inventories continued to accumulate. The supply - demand of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little, and the inventory of the five major steel products increased. Currently, steel inventories are low, and there are continuous production - restriction news before the parade. The fundamentals may improve, and with strong cost support, the futures prices are likely to rise. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume increased. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly after the typhoon. The small - sample steel enterprise's iron - water production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter increased, remaining high year - on - year. The possibility of short - term production reduction due to profit reasons is small. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports increased compared to last week. The demand for iron ore is high, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion. The fundamental negative driving factors are limited, and prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The output of rebar decreased slightly, inventories increased, and the apparent demand decreased, in line with off - season characteristics. In terms of supply, the market sentiment is optimistic this week, and the arrival volume of scrap steel has been decreasing. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of electric furnaces was high in some areas due to high profits in the early stage. Although the iron - water production of blast furnaces decreased, the price difference between iron and scrap narrowed, increasing the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long and short - process production increased significantly. This week, the arrival volume increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly, with the available inventory days remaining slightly below normal. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both strong, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Prices are expected to follow the finished steel [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices followed coking coal and oscillated strongly. On the spot side, the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased. After the fifth round of price increases was fully implemented, the profitability of coke enterprises improved, and production started to pick up, with coke production remaining stable. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing, and the iron - water production remains high. Upstream coke enterprises have smooth sales, and inventories are continuously decreasing. Middle - stream futures and spot traders are gradually releasing supplies, and the arrival of coke at downstream steel mills has improved. Currently, the supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and prices still have short - term support. The fundamentals of coke are healthy. In the short term, with high iron - water production, its own driving force is weak, and prices are expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: On the futures side, due to continuous news of over - production inspections at coal mines, the supply recovery is slow, and market sentiment has been boosted, with prices trending strongly. On the spot side, prices remained stable. On the supply side, the output of some coal mines is limited due to underground factors, and some coal mines have reduced their production in the second half of the year due to over - production inspections. The overall supply is slowly recovering. On the import side, the import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles. On the demand side, coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous round of concentrated purchases, downstream enterprises are now purchasing on - demand. Upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. Affected by over - production inspections, the supply recovery of coking coal is expected to be slow. With poor supply expectations, market sentiment has improved, and prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Driven by the strong coking coal futures prices, the central price of manganese silicon futures increased yesterday. On the spot side, manufacturers are more willing to hold prices, and spot prices have been continuously adjusted upwards. On the cost side, coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The futures prices of manganese silicon are rising, and the overseas quotes are increasing, making manganese ore quotes firmer. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. However, as the industry's profitability improves, the manufacturers'复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. Currently, the market fundamentals have limited contradictions, and in the short term, manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the difficulty of market inventory depletion will increase, and the upside potential of prices is not optimistic [14]. - **Silicon Iron**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures prices continued to be strong, and the market's expectation of the "anti - involution" policy increased, driving up the silicon iron futures prices. On the spot side, the prices of semi - coke and settlement electricity prices have increased significantly, and with the strong futures prices, spot prices have also increased. On the supply side, as the industry's profitability improves, manufacturers' enthusiasm for复产 increases, and the output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. On the demand side, steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. In the magnesium market, due to tight supplies, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but the market trading atmosphere has cooled, and the game between upstream and downstream continues. Currently, the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and in the short term, prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap may be filled, and the upside potential of prices should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices are expected to gradually return to the real - trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate. It is expected that the policy direction will continue the previous strict control of the incremental situation. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side to the prices of finished products [3]. - Short - term commodity prices may be adjusted. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate with the prices of downstream products and mainly oscillate. The market divergence remains, and risk control should be noted [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. In the long - term, the demand of the black sector will weaken marginally [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, although the short - term price is repeated, the high - point may have appeared. For polysilicon, the price is in high - level oscillation, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely. Caution is required when participating [15][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. In the long - term, if there are substantial policies in real estate, the futures price may continue to rise. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long - term. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3234 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.030%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 893 tons to 89256 tons, and the main contract position decreased by 56263 lots to 1.652569 million lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3451 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.17%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 55998 tons, and the main contract position decreased by 1559 lots to 1.460175 million lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The real - estate policy remains basically unchanged. The export volume has decreased significantly this week. The speculative demand for rebar has decreased, and there is inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils has increased slightly, with a rapid increase in production and a small inventory accumulation. The inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 794.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50% (- 4.00), with a position change of - 26208 lots to 358300 lots. The weighted position was 942500 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 776 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.13 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.65% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased. The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly. The profitability of steel mills is still at a high level, and the demand support remains [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 1.30% at 6096 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 94 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 3.36% at 5908 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 142 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Manganese silicon is in an over - supplied industrial pattern, with marginal weakening of future demand and potential downward adjustment of costs. Ferrosilicon also faces the risk of weakening demand and a significant decline in pig iron output in the future [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8700 yuan/ton, up 2.47% (+ 210). The weighted contract position increased by 21227 lots to 522034 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 51345 yuan/ton, up 2.02% (+ 1015). The weighted contract position increased by 5970 lots to 387318 lots [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: For industrial silicon, the supply is in excess, and the effective demand is insufficient. The price may be repeated in the short - term. For polysilicon, the price is affected by the expected capacity integration plan and the enterprise's price - holding strategy, and it is in high - level oscillation. The inventory may accumulate slightly in August [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1181 yuan, down 9 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 239.7 million weight boxes to 5949.9 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.87% month - on - month and 13.88% year - on - year. The spot price of soda ash was 1320 yuan, up 70 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 56000 tons to 1.8518 million tons, an increase of 3.12% [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. In the long - term, it depends on real - estate policies. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and there are supply - demand contradictions in the long - term [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bearish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and provides corresponding investment ratings based on these factors [1][2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated around the 5 - day moving average. Low prices, improved downstream product profits, and reduced supply due to unexpected shutdowns of local PDH plants supported the price [2] - Polyolefin futures had a narrow - range intraday fluctuation. Polyethylene's short - term production is expected to increase, with both supply and demand rising recently. Polypropylene's prices are stable, and some offers are tentatively raised, but downstream procurement is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rebounded. Domestic supply increased, demand was weak, but port inventory decreased. There is an expected improvement in supply - demand in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter [3] - Styrene futures prices declined. The expected output of a new plant may have a negative impact, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weak [3] Polyester - PTA prices rebounded. New plant production and increased output from existing plants pressured the supply, but production cuts may boost the market. PX may face demand decline if PTA production cuts increase [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded. Supply is expected to continue to rise, and there is an expected increase in demand [5] - Short fiber prices followed the raw materials and sales improved. There is limited new capacity this year, and the peak - season demand is expected to boost the industry [5] - Bottle chip's low - start operation led to stable inventory, but over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose slightly. Coastal olefin plants have low operation rates, and ports are expected to accumulate inventory. In the long - term, the approaching peak - season demand should be monitored [6] - Urea market sentiment cooled. The Indian tender price boosted the spot market, but short - term supply - demand is loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fluctuated strongly. Cost support increased, but supply increased and demand was weak, so short - term prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices fluctuated weakly. Comprehensive profit improved, but long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated. High - price resistance led to a downward shift. Supply is high, and the long - term market is weak, but prices are unlikely to fall below the previous low [8] - Glass prices fluctuated. Mid - stream sales led to a decline in spot prices, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Industry Overview Upstream - Egg prices in the agricultural sector have declined significantly year-on-year [2] - Glass prices in the black sector have dropped [2] Midstream - The operating rate of PTA in the chemical industry has recently decreased [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a three-year low [4] - The box office of summer movies has increased [4] Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the implementation of anti-involution policies. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products has issued an initiative to photovoltaic enterprises, including adhering to fair competition, controlling production capacity expansion, focusing on technological innovation, and strengthening self-discipline [1] - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the update of parenting policies. The State Council General Office has issued an opinion on gradually implementing free preschool education, and from the fall semester of 2025, the tuition fees for children in the first year of public kindergartens will be waived [1] Other Information Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of various industries have different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry has decreased to 45.97 BP, and that of the real estate industry has decreased to 84.61 BP [47] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The prices of various industries have different changes. For example, the spot price of eggs in the agricultural sector has increased by 7.35%, while the spot price of glass in the black sector has decreased by 3.86% [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most rated as "oscillating". The rated varieties include steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [7][8][9][10][11][13][14] 2. Core View of the Report - The black building materials market has strong supply contraction expectations and continues to show a relatively strong trend. Although the fundamentals have not changed significantly and inventory pressure is not high, factors such as upcoming production restrictions and potential macro - positive news may drive price increases. After the market rallies to a high level, volatility increases, and it is recommended to wait and avoid risks. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand [1][6] 3. Summary by Variety Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. Steel mill profitability increased, but iron water production decreased in some areas due to rainfall. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports, berthing areas, and factories decreased. With high demand and inventory reduction, the price is expected to oscillate after a slight decline [2] Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Coking Coal**: Overall supply is temporarily stable. Mongolian coal imports at the Ganqimaodu port reached a high this year. Coke production is stable, and coking coal demand is strong. Although the spot market sentiment has cooled, upstream mines are still reducing inventory. Future attention should be paid to regulatory policies, mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [2] - **Coke**: The price has been continuously raised, and the cost support for manganese silicon has been strengthened. The manganese ore market is in a wait - and - see state, and port ore prices remain firm. The downstream demand for manganese silicon is resilient, but the supply - demand relationship may become looser. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and both are expected to oscillate [3] Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is strengthened due to the continuous increase in coke prices. The downstream demand is resilient, but the supply - demand relationship may become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production may increase rapidly, and downstream demand is resilient. The supply - demand relationship is healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Glass - In the off - season, demand declines, deep - processing orders decrease, and inventory days increase. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the market is mainly affected by sentiment. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term and decline in the long term [3][11] Soda Ash - The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After a rapid short - term price decline, it is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [6][11] Steel - Affected by coking coal supply disturbances, the futures market is strong. Spot trading is average, and inventory is accumulating. With low inventory and potential production restrictions, the fundamentals may improve, and the price is likely to rise. Future focus should be on production restrictions and terminal demand [7] Scrap Steel - Steel mill arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply and demand are both strong, and the price is expected to follow the trend of finished steel [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, the macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, so a cautious approach is recommended [6][7]. - Regarding stock indices, although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low - level valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising. Consider going long on stock index futures [10][11]. - In the case of precious metals, the complex global trade and financial environment, along with the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, support the long - term bullish trend of precious metals. Consider going long on gold futures [12][13]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore, the policy currently dominates the market, and the prices follow the trend of coking coal. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks and hold existing long positions while managing their positions [14][16]. - For coking coal and coke, after the price fluctuations, the market is returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. Affected by policies, the prices may continue to be strong. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [17]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may exceed demand, but there may be opportunities to go long at low levels when the cost provides support [20]. - Regarding crude oil, the market is complex with high uncertainty due to OPEC+ production increases, poor US non - farm data, and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [21][23]. - For fuel oil, the Asian market is well - supplied, and the new US tariff rate is unfavorable to the shipping market. The strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26][27]. - For natural rubber, although the macro - market sentiment has cooled, there are still opportunities to go long on pullbacks due to supply disruptions and cost support [28][29]. - For PVC, the supply exceeds demand, but the price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30][31]. - For urea, the short - term market may fluctuate, but a bullish view is held for the medium - term [32]. - For PX, the short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. Consider range - bound trading [33]. - For PTA, the short - term supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. There may be a callback risk, and range - bound trading is recommended [34][35]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply pressure increases, but the low - level inventory provides support. Consider range - bound trading and pay attention to port inventory and imports [36]. - For short - fiber, the short - term supply is high, demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate with the cost [37][38]. - For bottle - grade chips, the price may fluctuate with the cost due to raw material price fluctuations and device maintenance [39]. - For soda ash, the supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. The market is expected to adjust steadily in the short - term [40][41]. - For glass, the production is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported by cost in the short - term [42][43]. - For caustic soda, the supply is increasing after the resumption of production, and the price is expected to be stable [44][45]. - For pulp, the supply tends to expand, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [46][47]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply is high, the demand is improving but the trading is inactive. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty in the supply [49]. - For copper, the copper concentrate is in short supply, and the support factors for copper prices are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [51][52]. - For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - For nickel, the supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and there are opportunities to go long on soybean meal at the support level and exit long positions on soybean oil at high levels [55][57]. - For palm oil, the inventory is increasing, but there may be opportunities to go long [58][59]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase, and there are opportunities to go long [59][60]. - For cotton, the global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [61][63]. - For sugar, the production in Brazil is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - For apples, the production is expected to increase slightly, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [67][68]. - For live pigs, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69]. - For eggs, the supply is increasing, and it is recommended to hold a 9 - 10 reverse spread [70][71]. - For corn and corn starch, the short - term supply - demand is balanced, and there are opportunities for virtual call options on old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [73][74]. - For logs, the supply is tight, the demand is increasing, and the short - term bullish sentiment is strong [76][77]. Grouped by Product Categories Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract falling. The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 288.5 billion yuan [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the Treasury bond yield is at a low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market [6]. Stock Indices - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The seven - department joint guidance on financial support for new industrialization was issued [8][9]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the low - level valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising. Consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed higher. The US trade deficit in June was 60.2 billion US dollars [12]. - The complex global trade and financial environment, along with the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, support the long - term bullish trend of precious metals. Consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The policy currently dominates the market, and the prices follow the trend of coking coal. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The policy dominates the market, and the price follows coking coal. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. After the price fluctuations, the market is returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. Affected by policies, the prices may continue to be strong. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The short - term supply may exceed demand, but there may be opportunities to go long at low levels when the cost provides support [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened low and closed high. OPEC+ increased production, and the US non - farm data was poor. The market is complex with high uncertainty. It is recommended to wait and see [21][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil opened low and closed high. The Asian market is well - supplied, and the new US tariff rate is unfavorable to the shipping market. The strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][25]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price rebounded, and the supply and demand are improving. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has cooled, but there are still opportunities to go long on pullbacks due to supply disruptions and cost support [28]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The supply exceeds demand, but the price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures rose. The short - term market may fluctuate, but a bullish view is held for the medium - term [32]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures fell. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. Consider range - bound trading [33]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The short - term supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. There may be a callback risk, and range - bound trading is recommended [34][35]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply pressure increases, but the low - level inventory provides support. Consider range - bound trading and pay attention to port inventory and imports [36]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The short - term supply is high, demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate with the cost [37][38]. - **Bottle - Grade Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures fell. The price may fluctuate with the cost due to raw material price fluctuations and device maintenance [39]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. The market is expected to adjust steadily in the short - term [40][41]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported by cost in the short - term [42][43]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply is increasing after the resumption of production, and the price is expected to be stable [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply tends to expand, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is improving but the trading is inactive. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty in the supply [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the support factors for copper prices are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [51][52]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures rose. The supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures fell. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and there are opportunities to go long on soybean meal at the support level and exit long positions on soybean oil at high levels [55][57]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures rose. The inventory is increasing, but there may be opportunities to go long [58][59]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures rose. The supply is expected to increase, and there are opportunities to go long [59][60]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded slightly. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [61][63]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell. The production in Brazil is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The production is expected to increase slightly, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [67][68]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and it is recommended to hold a 9 - 10 reverse spread [70][71]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and there are opportunities for virtual call options on old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [73][74]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures fell. The supply is tight, the demand is increasing, and the short - term bullish sentiment is strong [76][77].

Group 1: Policy and Market Response - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promote product quality improvement [1] - In response to the "anti-involution" policy, industries such as photovoltaic, cement, steel, and coke have begun to reduce production and increase prices [1][4] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have proposed amendments to the Price Law to standardize market pricing and address "involution-style" competition [1][4] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Major commodity futures, including coking coal, coke, polysilicon, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash, have seen significant price increases, with polysilicon rising by 50% in July and reaching a record high of 53,000 yuan/ton [1][4] - The market is experiencing a shift from "anti-involution driven" to "stock replenishment driven," with expectations of further price increases as downstream demand rises [4][5] - Analysts predict that most commodity futures will experience a comprehensive rebound in the third quarter, driven by policy support and improved market conditions [5] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The chemical industry is facing a cycle of low-price competition, which undermines profitability and restricts R&D investment, leading to a lack of product value enhancement [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce plans to stabilize growth in key industries, focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [2][3] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to enhance market order and promote industry upgrades, directing resources towards high-efficiency sectors and improving global competitiveness [6]